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January 26, 2021 - Brief Issue 142

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Moderna Finds Vaccine Still Works Against Variant Strains; Will Test Booster Shots (Health & Science)

Covid-19 Vaccines in Children: Pfizer Trial for Ages 12 to 15 Fully Enrolled; Moderna Expects Pediatric Trial Results by September (Health & Science)

Merck Stops Development on Two Covid-19 Vaccines (Health & Science)

New Analysis Finds Covid-19 Deaths More Likely to Go Unreported in Trump Country (Health & Science)

Failure to Distribute Covid-19 Vaccines Equitably Will Have Serious Financial Consequences for Wealthy Nations, Study Finds (Around the World)

Dutch Anti-Lockdown Riots Continue Into Third Night (Around the World)

Canadian Casino Tycoon Fined For Fraudulently Obtaining Vaccine (Around the World)

Indian AstraZeneca Partner Will Not Divert Extra Supplies to Europe Amid E.U. Shortage (Around the World)

Lawmakers from Both Parties Urge More Targeted Coronavirus Relief Bill (U.S. Government & Politics)

Capitol Police Officers Test Positive in Wake of the Capitol Siege (U.S. Government & Politics)

Governor Ordered Shutdowns Not Responsible for Job Losses (U.S. Economy)

Chicago Teachers Union Votes to Reject Return to In-Person Schooling (U.S. Society)

Budweiser to Skip Super Bowl Ad (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 25,298,406 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 421,239 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 293,694,286 tests and distributed 41,418,325 vaccine doses, with 19,252,279 people initiating vaccination (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 99,801,418 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,142,526 deaths. At least 55,164,329 people have recovered from the virus.

Moderna Finds Vaccine Still Works Against Variant Strains; Will Test Booster Shots

A new research study from Moderna shows that its Covid-19 vaccine remains effective against the coronavirus variants emerging from the U.K. and South Africa, two variants that are particularly concerning due to their increased infectivity (NPR, WSJ, Politico). Although the Moderna vaccine is effective against the variants, it is somewhat less effective against the South Africa strain. For this reason, Moderna announced that it will pursue testing of vaccine booster doses, including one that would specifically target the South Africa variant. Another booster is aimed at neutralizing new mutants more generally.

Covid-19 Vaccines in Children: Pfizer Trial for Ages 12 to 15 Fully Enrolled; Moderna Expects Pediatric Trial Results by September

Pfizer announced late last week that a pediatric clinical trial testing its Covid-19 vaccine in children between 12 and 15 years of age has been fully enrolled, with 2,259 children participating (CNBC). The vaccine was authorized in the U.S. for those 16 and older in December. Trials in younger groups are important for establishing safe dosing. Although children tend to experience milder Covid-19 effects than adults, they can still become seriously ill from the virus, and some parents are reluctant to send kids back to school or social activities before a vaccine becomes available for them. Pfizer declined to say when it expected pediatric clinical trial results.

Moderna, whose Covid-19 vaccine was approved in the U.S. in December for adults 18 and over, is also conducting clinical trials in children. Moderna’s study is open to ages 12 to 17, but enrollment has been slower than expected, with about 800 enrolled out of 3,000 needed. However, the company said it expects initial results before September. Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel said that it was unlikely that data in children 11 and under would be available before next year. Bonus Read: “When Will Kids Be Able to Get the Covid-19 Vaccines?” (Vox).

Merck Stops Development on Two Covid-19 Vaccines

Drug developer Merck & Co said on Monday that it would end development of two Covid-19 vaccines currently in clinical trials (Reuters). In early-phase trials, both vaccines showed inferior immune response compared to other vaccines and to immunity of recovered Covid-19 patients. Although the Merck vaccines had not advanced as far as other frontrunners, the news is a setback as countries around the world race to immunize as many people as possible with limited vaccine stocks. Merck said that it would turn its attention to two experimental Covid-19 treatments. Clinical trials are underway for MK-7110, an immune modulator being considered for treatment of severe Covid-19, and MK-4482, also known as molnupiravir, an antiviral that may benefit patients in outpatient and hospital settings.

New Analysis Finds Covid-19 Deaths More Likely to Go Unreported in Trump Country

According to an analysis from STAT, counties that strongly supported former President Trump may be more likely to underreport Covid-19 deaths. In a pandemic, some degree of underreporting of mortality is expected. Excess deaths, or deaths above what would be expected in a normal year, can serve as an approximation of true mortality. During the Covid-19 pandemic, excess deaths not attributed to Covid-19 may be due to factors like decreased standard of treatment in strained hospital systems, interrupted treatment of chronic conditions or even increased rates of suicides and overdoses. However, many excess deaths are likely Covid-19 deaths erroneously attributed to other causes.

The researchers who conducted the STAT study found that excess deaths not officially attributed to Covid-19 were higher in rural areas, Southern regions and areas with lower levels of education – all factors that correlate with political support for Trump. Unassigned excess deaths were also higher in areas where adherence to public health guidelines was low. Counties that voted overwhelmingly for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 elections reported Covid-19 as the cause of death far less frequently. Across the country, there were 44 excess deaths not officially assigned as related to Covid-19 for every 100 deaths attributed to Covid-19. In the quartile of counties that favored Trump most strongly in 2020, there were 163 unassigned excess deaths for every 100 Covid-19-assigned deaths. In counties with the least Trump votes, there were only 18 excess deaths not assigned to Covid-19 for every 100 official Covid deaths.

STAT reasons that in areas where Covid-19 is trivialized or seen as a myth, coroners may be more likely to leave Covid-19 off the official death certificate. For instance, if a patient dies of a heart condition exacerbated by Covid-19, a coroner may list only the heart condition and not include Covid-19 as a contributing factor or underlying cause. These areas may also conduct less testing, making it more likely that Covid-19 would be missed as a cause of death. 

Oxygen Scarcity Exacerbates Covid-19 Mortality

Insufficient supplies of supplemental oxygen are diminishing hospitals’ ability to successfully treat Covid-19 patients (WSJ). Around the world, hospitals are being forced to ration oxygen for patients, driving up the mortality rate. People in countries such as Mexico, Lebanon and South Africa are stockpiling oxygen canisters in an effort to avoid hospitals, driving prices up and making it difficult for poorer families to access necessary interventions. The problem is most severe in developing countries, but overcrowded hospitals in London and Los Angeles are also running into supply shortages. Oxygen is a critical Covid-19 intervention, and studies have shown that morbidity and mortality decrease when oxygen treatment is started earlier in the course of the disease.

U.S. Enacts Travel Restrictions to Limit Spread of Covid-19 Variants; E.U. Proposes Similar Measures

Starting Monday, the U.S. implemented strict travel bans on foreign travelers who are at risk of carrying variant strains of the coronavirus, particularly the more-contagious strains originating from the U.K. and South Africa (CIDRAP). The ban extends to travelers from the U.K., Ireland, 26 European countries, Brazil and South Africa. On Tuesday, the U.S. also enacted a requirement that anyone entering the U.S. by air show proof of a negative Covid-19 test taken within 3 days of their flight. Travelers are also subject to a seven-day quarantine.

The European Union is also considering measures to limit the spread of coronavirus variants across its borders (AP). The E.U. executive body on Monday proposed that the 27 member nations impose stricter travel measures, including testing and quarantine for travelers arriving from countries with high infection rates. The E.U. commission stressed the need for keeping borders open for commerce, instead discouraging non-essential travel. The commission also proposed that travelers coming from outside the E.U. be required to test negative for the virus and quarantine upon entry.

Bonus Reads: “State Lessons in Vaccine Rollout,” (WSJ); “A Rural County in Washington State Hasn't Wasted a Single Covid-19 Vaccine Dose. Here's Its Secret,” (CNN Health); “Workers Producing the Vaccine Need Vaccination,” (WSJ).

Around the World

Failure to Distribute Covid-19 Vaccines Equitably Will Have Serious Financial Consequences for Wealthy Nations, Study Finds

An economic study out of Koc University in Istanbul, Harvard University and the University of Maryland asserts that the potential economic devastation resulting from inequitable global vaccine distribution will hurt wealthy nations nearly as much as it will hurt those in the developing world (NYT). The study predicts that, in the most likely scenario, in which developed countries reach their target vaccination goals by mid-2021 and poorer nations vaccinate only half their populations by the end of the year, the world economy would lose between $1.8 trillion and $3.8 trillion. More than half of those losses would be absorbed by wealthy nations. The situation could get much worse – if developing nations were to be almost entirely excluded from vaccination, economic losses could rise to $9 trillion.

“Clearly, all economies are connected,” said Selva Demiralp, an economist at Koc University and an author on the study. “No economy will be fully recovered unless the other economies are recovered.” Economic shutdown in developing nations reduces the demand for exports. It also disrupts international trade, which relies heavily on intermediate goods – parts that are shipped from one country to another to be incorporated into finished products.

As vaccines became available late last year, wealthy nations quickly bought up supplies, often striking bilateral deals with vaccine manufacturers and shutting poorer nations out. Leaders like Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), have condemned these kinds of deals, urging developed nations to release excess doses to COVAX, the WHO vaccine distribution program. A bright spot for COVAX came late last week, when the U.S. for the first time pledged to participate in the program (CIDRAP). Additionally, the program signed a deal with Pfizer/BioNTech for up to 40 million doses of its vaccine.

Europe

Dutch Anti-Lockdown Riots Continue Into Third Night

Violent anti-lockdown demonstrations in the Netherlands continued into their third night on Monday following a weekend of unrest. More than 180 people were arrested across the country last night as people opposing the lockdown once again defied orders to disperse in Amsterdam, Rotterdam, the Hague and other cities. Police in Rotterdam, where the mayor declared a state of emergency, reportedly used warning shots and tear gas to clear the crowd after being attacked with rocks and fireworks. The unrest, described as the Netherlands’ worst in four decades, came one day after 250 people were arrested nationwide on Sunday under similar circumstances. The demonstrations were sparked after parliament narrowly passed a measure last week to introduce a national nighttime curfew, the first since World War II, in a bid to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Bars and restaurants have been closed since October, while schools and non-essential shops were shuttered last month. The country has seen nearly 1 million cases of the coronavirus since the pandemic’s beginning, including more than 13,500 deaths (BBC).

Indian AstraZeneca Partner Will Not Divert Extra Supplies to Europe Amid E.U. Shortage

The CEO of the Serum Institute of India (SII) told Reuters on Monday that it will not for the time being divert shipments of the AstraZeneca vaccine to Europe to help with the shortage currently affecting the E.U. Adar Poonawalla, whose company manufactures the vaccine in a partnership with AstraZeneca, the Gates Foundation and the Gavi vaccine alliance, said it will continue to send supplies to poorer countries as initially planned. “We continue to support AstraZeneca wherever they need the support. We are happy to do so,” he said. “But we have not been asked to supply any more products for Europe because then that would mean supplies to Africa and India would suffer, and we certainly don’t want that. Once I satisfy that I can look at other, richer nations. Six months to a year, that could change.” Poonawalla’s comments follow last week’s news that AstraZeneca would cut its deliveries to the EU by 60% in the first week due to supply chain issues (Reuters). EU officials have expressed outrage in response, with Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides calling the new timeframe “not acceptable” (DW). Reuters reported on Tuesday that AstraZeneca has since upwardly revised its Friday projections, although it is unclear by how much, and has agreed to hasten the start of deliveries from February 15 to 7 (Reuters).

U.K. Considering Tougher Border Controls to Combat Pandemic

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Monday that he is considering a strict quarantine regime at the border to keep out new coronavirus variants that may be resistant to vaccines. “We have to realise there is at least the theoretical risk of a new variant that is a vaccine-busting variant coming in - we’ve got to be able to keep that under control,” Johnson told reporters. Among the measures under consideration, he added, was using airport hotels as mandatory quarantine centers for incoming international arrivals. Johnson made his comments after scientists reported that a new coronavirus variant identified in South Africa has the ability to evade antibodies provided to patients through blood plasma treatments. The same mechanism may make the variant resistant to the current line of vaccines, scientists have warned (Reuters).

Bonus Reads: “British Economy, Post-Brexit and Pummeled by Covid, Is Worst in G-7,” (WSJ); “Europe’s Bankruptcies Are Plummeting. That May Be a Problem,” (NYT).

Americas

Canadian Casino Tycoon Fined For Fraudulently Obtaining Vaccine

The CEO of a Canadian casino company was fined $1,150 after it emerged that he and his wife deceived healthcare workers to obtain coronavirus vaccines meant for vulnerable indigenous people, local media reported Monday. Rodney Baker, 55, and Ekaterina Baker, 32, chartered a plane to Beaver Creek in the Yukon Territory on January 21, where elderly members of the White River First Nation had received priority for vaccination. After arriving in the isolated community of 100 people, the couple from Vancouver told officials at a vaccine site that they were workers at a local motel. They were met at the airport upon leaving by law enforcement, who had evidently received a tip. Baker reportedly resigned as CEO on Monday. White River First Nation Chief Angela Demit expressed outrage in a statement. “We are deeply concerned by the actions of individuals who put our Elders and vulnerable people at risk to jump the line for selfish purposes,” she said (Yukon News). 

Mexico Passes 150,000 Coronavirus Deaths

More than 150,000 people have died of coronavirus as of Monday in Mexico, the world’s fourth-highest death toll. Another 659 new deaths were reported on Monday, bringing the total to 150,273. The health care system has been stretched thin, with hospitals pushed to capacity and people struggling to obtain their own supplies of oxygen for sick family members. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador was among those to fall sick to Covid-19, with the nation’s leader announcing on Sunday that he was being treated for mild symptoms (Reuters). Jesus Ortega, a former leader of the opposition Party of the Democratic Revolution, lashed out at the president for his cavalier attitude toward his personal safety during the pandemic. Obrador, who maintained a busy travel schedule the week before falling ill, has resisted wearing masks during public appearances. “The problem is he’s the president. If the president violates the health guidelines, he’s setting a bad example to others,” said Ortega, adding that he wished his rival a speedy recovery (Reuters).

Asia-Pacific

China Reports Falling Coronavirus Case Volume

Chinese authorities on Tuesday reported a fall in the number of new coronavirus cases linked to its most recent outbreak in the northeast. Confirmed cases in the mainland fell from 124 on Sunday to 82 on Monday. Heilongjiang province reported 52 new cases, while Jilin and Hebei provinces reported seven and five new cases respectively for Monday. The three provinces, which surround Beijing, have largely been under lockdown in recent weeks as the Chinese government attempts to control the situation ahead of anticipated mass travel for Lunar New Year. Although the case numbers are small by global standards, the new outbreak is the worst in China since March 2020. The two deaths linked to the current outbreak are the first recorded since May (Reuters).

U.S. Government & Politics

Lawmakers from Both Parties Urge More Targeted Coronavirus Relief Bill

Lawmakers from both parties have reacted to the Biden administration’s proposed stimulus deal by urging more targeted relief and questioning the size of the proposed package (WaPo). The Washington Post reports, “Lawmakers from both parties lobbied White House officials Sunday for a more targeted relief bill as they questioned the need for some of the items included in President Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus plan. The discussion came on a private Zoom call between key centrist lawmakers of both parties and Biden administration officials led by National Economic Council Director Brian Deese. It was an early test for whether Biden’s relief plan has a chance of getting the kind of support it would need to pass Congress with bipartisan backing.” Lawmakers pushed for among other things more restrictions on who would receive the proposed next round of $1,400 checks. Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) remarked on the call, “There are still a lot of unanswered questions, most notably, how did the administration come up with $1.9 trillion dollars required, given that our figures show that there’s still about $1.8 trillion left to be spent.” The call was organized by Senator Joe Manchin III (D-WV). Senator Angus King, a Maine independent who caucuses with the Democrats, commented, “This isn’t Monopoly money,” adding, “Every dollar that we’re talking about here is being borrowed from our grandchildren. We have a responsibility to be stewards.” Yet the pushback on the proposal’s size could anger liberals who seek a larger package, particularly as the Democratic campaigns in Georgia that secured the narrow Democratic Senate majority heavily featured calls for $2,000 checks in their advertising.

Capitol Police Officers Test Positive in Wake of the Capitol Siege

In the wake of the pro-Trump riot and breaching of the Capitol, multiple Capitol police officers have tested positive for coronavirus as have members of the national guard deployed to provide security. On Saturday, the head of the officers’ union stated that 38 officers have tested positive since January 6. The Washington Post reports, “The D.C. National Guard was aware of at least 170 cases as of Friday, with more positive results expected.” In addition 82 D.C. Metropolitan Police officers have tested positive since January 6, though it is not clear how many might be tied to the events of that day (WaPo).

Bonus Read: New America’s Candace Rondeaux and Heather Hurlburt write on what hacked data from the social media app Parler can tell about political violence in America and the Capitol riot (NYT).

California Governor Newsom Lifts Statewide Stay-at-Home Order

On Monday, California Governor Gavin Newsom lifted the state’s stay-at-home order (CNN, Politico). CNN reports, “All counties now return to the state's tier-based system, which places each county into color-coded tiers that indicate which activities and businesses can open up based on local case rates and test positivity. The majority of the state's 58 counties are in the strictest, or purple tier. Individual counties, however, have the authority to set their own restrictions and can choose to keep the stricter restrictions in place.” California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly stated, “California is slowly starting to emerge from the most dangerous surge of this pandemic yet, which is the light at the end of the tunnel we've been hoping for.” The change comes as Newsom has faced lawsuits over the orders as well as a recall effort fueled by anger over coronavirus restrictions (WSJ).

Biden Administration Aims to Vaccinate 1.5 Million People Per Day

On Monday, President Joe Biden said he was hoping to increase the U.S. Covid-19 vaccination rate to 1.5 million per day (Politico). That number is higher than his previously stated goal of 100 million shots in 100 days. Vivek Murthy, Biden’s nominee for surgeon general, clarified that 100 million doses in 100 days is “a floor; it’s not a ceiling.” He added, “it’s also a goal that reflects the realities of what we face, what could go right but also what could go wrong.”

Of immediate concern is the limited vaccine supply across the United States, with officials around the country saying that their supplies are running low. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said that the federal government is working with manufacturers to ensure that supply continues to meet the demand and that vaccines are distributed efficiently to clinics (Politico). Dr. Walensky also noted that supply concerns were a short-term issue and were likely to ease by March. President Biden expressed optimism that the vaccine would be readily available to any adult who wants it in the spring.

Biden Faces Challenges in Fulfilling Pledge to Reopen Schools

President Joe Biden began his term by promising a focus on quickly reopening schools, but his effort to do so faces numerous challenges according to the New York Times (NYT). In his inaugural address, Biden stated, “We can teach our children in safe schools,” and he quickly signed an executive order directing the government to prepare to “reopen school doors as quickly as possible.” However, the Times writes, “with about half of American students still learning virtually as the pandemic nears its first anniversary, the president’s push is far from certain to succeed. His plan is rolling out just as local battles over reopening have, if anything, become more pitched in recent weeks.” As we have covered previously, in-person schooling remains a point of tension with teachers unions who are concerned about the safety of reopening, and among public health experts, the means and safety of reopening remain a subject of debate.

U.S. Economy

Governor Ordered Shutdowns Not Responsible for Job Losses

According to a new review article by Indiana University economists Sumedha Gupta, Kosali Simon, and Coady Wing, the shutdowns that governors ordered in reaction to the pandemic are not responsible for the year’s job losses (WaPo). The Washington Post summarizes the key findings of the article that reviewed more than 60 studies on the pandemic and its impact, writing, “pandemic-related economic research shows the shutdowns aren’t killing jobs; the virus is. In the first outbreaks last spring, people stayed home to avoid contracting the deadly novel coronavirus, regardless of what their governor said.” The article’s authors note that cellphone data shows that people began staying home before governors ordered shutdowns, that one study using cellphone data found little difference in the drop in visitors for businesses that were ordered to shut down and those that were not, and that other research reviewed in the article found that when shutdown orders were lifted, jobs did not bounce back.

U.S. Society

Chicago Teachers Union Votes to Reject Return to In-Person Schooling

On Sunday, the Chicago Teachers Union, representing teachers in the nation’s third largest school district, voted to reject a return to in-person schooling (WaPo, Fox). The Washington Post reports, “Chicago Public Schools chief executive Janice Jackson had said the action would constitute an illegal strike. ‘I want to be clear, if teachers refuse to come to work on Monday, that is a strike, that is not a lockout,’ Jackson said Friday as the union polled its 25,000 members. But in a statement on Sunday, she said the district has agreed to a request from union leadership to push back the return of K-8 teachers and staff from Monday to Wednesday this week. ‘We now agree on far more than we disagree, but our discussions remain ongoing, and additional time is needed to reach a resolution,’ Jackson said.” The teachers union said it had not committed to terms but would negotiate with its president Jesse Sharkey stating, “Our collective power is our greatest strength.” Sharkey added, “And this vote cements our intention to continue to stand together in unity to land an agreement that protects educators, students and all of our CPS families.” The union has gone on strike three times in the past decade, according to the Post, and it currently contends that a strike would begin if and when the district forbids teachers from continuing online instruction. Thad Goodchild, an attorney for the union, commented, “Every time we take any sort of collective action, Chicago Public Schools claims it’s illegal.” Under the union’s existing contract - won after a 2019 strike - the union is not allowed to strike but administrators cannot lock them out from work, creating the current dispute over the character of the refusal to work in person - strike or lockout. Asked about the dispute, President Joe Biden did not specifically mention Chicago but commented, “The teachers, I know they want to work,” adding, “They just want to work in a safe environment, and as safe as we can rationally make it, and we can do that” (Chicago Sun Times).

Budweiser to Skip Super Bowl Ad

Anheuser Busch, the company behind the Budweiser beer brand, has announced that it will not be producing a Super Bowl ad for the beer this year (WSJ). It will be the first time since 1983 that the Super Bowl has not featured Budweiser advertising. Instead, the Wall Street Journal writes, “Budweiser said it is committing $1 million of ad inventory to vaccine awareness and education work by the Ad Council, a nonprofit that helps make public service campaigns, and to COVID Collaborative, a coalition of experts and institutions in public health and other areas. It will also produce multimillion-dollar vaccine awareness efforts throughout the year, executives said.” Monica Rustgi, Budweiser’s Vice President for Marketing stated that while the company could have run an ad about vaccines, it views separate efforts as more effective. Rustgi commented, “We’re still going to reach people during the Super Bowl,” adding, “It’s just not going to be in the traditional sense. We’re still using the conversation and the ecosystem around the Super Bowl to send a message, but we’re also helping to be part of the solution so we can all enjoy an ice cold Bud sooner or later.”

Bonus Read: “Suits and Sweats: How Men Will Dress Post-Covid,” (WSJ). 

Analysis & Arguments

Vanessa Barbara examines the impact of the pandemic on education in Brazil (NYT).

Sam Adler-Bell argues that Dr. Fauci has escaped much needed criticism for his role in the pandemic response (The Drift).

John Seabrook examines the pandemic’s impact on the office (New Yorker).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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