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Fed’s Miran Hasn’t Spoken With Trump About Fed Chair Job

By Vicky Ge Huang

 

Good morning. On tap for today, ADP releases its private payrolls figures for December, ahead of Friday's release of U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for December. ISM data on services activity is also set for Wednesday. The eurozone's annual rate of inflation fell to the European Central Bank’s target in December. Also, Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran said in a television interview he isn't one of the finalists President Trump is considering for the next Fed chair.

 

Top News

Fed’s Miran Hasn’t Spoken With Trump About Fed Chair Job

PHOTO: Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters

Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran hasn’t spoken with President Trump about serving as the Fed’s next chair and hasn’t raised his hand for the job, Miran said in a TV interview.

Miran said on Fox Business Tuesday morning that he is not among the finalists Trump is considering for the role, a group of candidates he described as “extremely credible.”

Eurozone Inflation Falls to ECB Target

The annual rate of inflation in the eurozone fell to the European Central Bank’s target in December, underpinning views that monetary policy will remain stable in the near future.

The European Union’s statistics agency said Wednesday that consumer prices in the currency bloc were 2% higher than a year prior, slowing from a 2.1% increase in November, and in line with a consensus of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

Services prices increased at a slightly slower pace to 3.4% after three straight months of faster rises, indicating some key price pressures in the currency area are dissipating.

Productivity Helps Businesses Endure Pushback on Prices

PHOTO: Kevin Mohatt/Reuters

Higher input costs, and consumer pushback against further price increases, have been squeezing business profit margins, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin says. But businesses have been able to hold their ground by improving internal processes, he argued in a speech in Raleigh, N.C.

"You would have thought that this challenge in passing on costs would have reduced operating margins, but businesses leveraged automation, lower turnover and reduced hiring to drive productivity that served as an offset," Barkin said. Those changes all weigh against hiring, but weaker labor-supply growth has helped keep unemployment in check nonetheless, Barkin said. (Dow Jones Newswires)

China’s Forex Reserves Rose in December as Yuan Debate Mounts

China’s foreign-exchange reserves rose in December amid a weaker dollar, wrapping up a year marked by a ballooning trade surplus that has renewed debate over the tightly managed Chinese yuan.

The country’s foreign-exchange reserves increased by $11.5 billion from November to $3.358 trillion at end-December, according to data released Wednesday.

 

U.S. Economy

Supreme Court Sets Friday as an Opinion Day, Raising Prospects of a Tariff Ruling

PHOTO: Kevin Mohatt/Reuters

The U.S. Supreme Court set Friday as an opinion day, raising expectations that the court could rule on the case regarding global tariffs President Donald Trump imposed using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

The court doesn’t signal which decision or decisions it will render on a particular date. Rulings are issued at 10 a.m. Eastern time on decision days.

Analysts have been waiting for a ruling on the tariffs case, with many expecting it to come by the end of January. (Barron’s)

Venezuela to Give U.S. Up to 50 Million Barrels of Oil, Trump Says

President Trump said Tuesday that Venezuela’s interim authorities will give the U.S. between 30 million and 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil, with proceeds overseen by the White House to benefit both countries.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said that he has directed Energy Secretary Chris Wright to carry out his plan for the oil to be taken by storage ships and transported to the U.S.

“This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States!,” said Trump.

 

Financial Regulation

First Brands Creditors Allege Utah Financier Paid Kickbacks for ‘Usurious’ Deals

PHOTO: Nick Oxford/Bloomberg News

An equipment financing company from Utah lent money to First Brands at “usurious” rates that returned over 300% as part of a kickback scheme with a top executive, according to the official committee of the auto-parts supplier’s creditors.

The official committee of unsecured creditors in First Brands’ bankruptcy case alleged Monday that equipment financier Onset Financial provided short-duration financing agreements secured by First Brands’ inventory in exchange for average internal rates of return of 300%. Onset used former First Brands executive Edward James for negotiations while allowing him to personally invest in the financings, generating hundreds of millions of dollars for James and outsize returns for Onset, the creditors alleged.

 

Forward Guidance

Wednesday (all times ET)

8:15 a.m.: ADP National Employment Report
10 a.m.: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
10 a.m.: State Employment and Unemployment
10 a.m.: ISM Report On Business Services PMI

Thursday

8:30 a.m.: Preliminary Productivity and Costs
8:30 a.m.: U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
8:30 a.m.: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
10 a.m.: Monthly Wholesale Trade
12:45 p.m.: World Economic Situation and Prospects report launch

 

Research

Dollar Gains Could Stay Limited Unless Jobs Data Improve Markedly

The dollar's gains could remain limited unless Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls data are strong enough to make markets reassess interest-rate cut expectations, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman said in a note. The market sees a 50-50 chance of a rate cut in March and a 70% chance in April but isn't full pricing a move until June, LSEG data show. "Private employment growth would likely have to increase back above 100,000 per month to prompt U.S. rate market participants to push back the timing of further Fed rate cuts, and provide more support for the dollar at the start of this year," Hardman said. Economists in a WSJ survey expect payrolls rose 73,000 in December. — Renae Dyer

 

Basis Points

  • German inflation fell in the last month of 2025, tracking a decline in French consumer prices and reinforcing the European Central Bank’s view that the eurozone remains in a “good place.”
  • Germany’s unemployment rate held steady in the last month of 2025, though actual jobless numbers inched higher, signaling an economy that still lacks momentum. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.3% in December, where it has been since March, data from Germany’s Federal Employment Agency published Wednesday said, matching a consensus of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.
  • Australia’s consumer inflation has eased slightly, taking the pressure off the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates at its next policy meeting due in February. The consumer-price index rose 3.4% in the 12 months to November, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. This was short of the 3.7% increase expected by economists, and slightly lower than October’s 3.8% rise.
 

About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.

 
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