Grasp the pattern, read the trend

No. 9, March/2021, 1

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

The AiR team is presenting this week’s brief on the latest events and developments in domestic politics, constitutional law, human rights, international relations and geopolitics in Asia.

I wish you an informative read and extend special greetings to readers in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ghana, and South Korea which celebrate Independence Day and Independence Declaration Day this week. 

With best regards,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in Southeast Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Announcements

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China: Extreme poverty completely eradicated, says Xi Jinping

(dql) Speaking at a ceremony held to honor ‘model fighters’ in the government’s campaign to alleviate poverty, Chinese President Xi Jinping declared that extreme poverty has been completely eradicated in China, with more than 800 million people lifted out of destitution since the country’s opening-up at the end of the 1970s and about 100 million since he has assumed power. Citing precise strategies centered at households and individuals and tailored measures to lift productivity as main reasons for the success in alleviating poverty, Xi hailed the achievement as a “splendid man-made miracle for the history books”, “great glory” of the Chinese people and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), as well as testament to the Party’s leadership role and strength in mobilizing the masses for a common cause.[Xinhua, in Chinese]

Analysts caution against China’s claims, pointing to a threshold to define poverty which is too low given China’s economic growth as well as to poverty alleviation as political strategy of the CCP, see [Washington Post], [South China Morning Post], [Brookings] and [Jamestown Foundation: China Brief]

At the same day of Xi’s speech, the National Administration for Rural Revitalization, a new a government agency charged with the promotion of development in the country’s rural areas was launched. It replaces the State Council Leading Group Office of Poverty Alleviation and Development, which was established a more than 30 years ago. [China Daily]

In a related development, the government released the so-called “Document No. 1” as it traditionally is the first policy announcement at the begin of each lunar year which focuses on agriculture and rural affairs. Besides the usual announcement of the guarantees of farmers’ rights and protection, the document highlights the need for consolidating and expanding poverty alleviation achievements. Among other proposals, the policy paper suggests to concentrate on large and medium-sized resettlement areas while providing assistance with employment for people who are willing to move there as well as continuing to improve infrastructure in those areas. It also urges to “intensify the crackdown on illegal religious activities and foreign infiltration in rural areas.” [Global Times] [Ministry of Ecology and Energy, China, in Chinese]

China: Woman jailed for posting information about Covid-19 victims on social media

(dql) A court document released by China’s Ministry of Public Security reveals that last year a Chinese woman was handed down a six-month in prison sentence after the court found her guilty of “knowingly spreading false information and causing serious disruption to public order.” She was detained in April 2020 after she published information on social media about people who had died or suffered during the pandemic health crisis. 

She is one of at least a dozen people known to have been prosecuted, detained or fined for violating the government’s official narrative on the pandemic. [South China Morning Post]

China: Six Chinese detained for ‘insulting’ soldiers killed in India border clash

(dql) At least six Chinese have been detained over accusations of defaming four Chinese soldiers killed in a border clash with India last June.

Among the arrested is Qiu Ziming, a blogger with more than 2.5 million followers, who reportedly questioned the official death toll given by Chinese authorities, and the eight-month timeline before an official announcement. Qui is now suspected of “picking quarrels and causing trouble”, a broadly defined crime which carries 10 years in jail, and is often used against journalists and activists. [The Guardian]

China in 2018 passed a law in 2018 banning people from “insulting or slandering heroes and martyrs.” Originally a civil matter, the offense will be made a criminal on in an amendment to the country’s criminal law, which comes into effect next month. Under that amendment, people who "insult, slander or use other means to infringe the reputation and honor of heroes and martyrs and damage the public interest of society" can be punished with imprisonment of up to three years. [CNN]

China: Hong Kong police charge 47 opposition lawmakers and activists under national security law

(dql) Marking a heavy blow to the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong, the city’s police have charged 47 opposition lawmakers and activists with conspiring to subvert state power under Hong Kong’s national security law over accusations of helping or running as candidates in the primary which was held by the pro-democracy camp in July 2020 to select candidates for the – subsequently postponed – Legislative Council (LegCo) election and which the police linked to an attempt to paralyze the government after candidates announced during the primary that the lawmakers of pro-democracy camp would close ranks to block legislative initiatives of the city’s government in case they would win the election. With a turnout of more than 600.000, equaling almost half of votes the pro-democracy camp received in the 2016 general election, it was the most-participated primary held in the history of Hong Kong since the 1997 handover and a massive legitimacy boost for the pro-democracy camp, nourishing hopes for a first-ever victory in the LegCo election. [AiR No. 28, July/2020, 2]

All 47 face sentences up to life in prison if convicted. [South China Morning Post] [The Guardian]

China: Hong Kong government to table Beijing allegiance oath bill, opposition lawmakers charged under national security law

(dql) Hong Kong’s government announced that it will table in March a bill to change the city’s electoral system which would mandate the city’s district councilors to pledge and maintain an oath of loyalty to Hong Kong and Beijing. Otherwise, they would face disqualification and a five-year ban from running for re-election. Thus far, they did not need to take such an oath of office.

The oath is part of a set of provisions in the bill stipulating behavior that would constitute a breach of the oath and would lead to disqualification including refusing to recognize China’s sovereignty over Hong Kong, opposing government bills without discrimination, pushing for the chief executive’s resignation, and conducting “disguised referendums”. The latter apparently alludes to the July 2020 primary for the participation in which 47 opposition lawmakers and activist now have been charged with conspiracy to commit subversion (see entry above).

Critics of the bill believe that it aims at intimidating and silencing political dissent among the city’s districts councilors who, although deciding only about community issues, have come under stronger scrutiny by Beijing after the opposition camp secured a landslide victory in the district election in November 2012 when it won nearly 90% almost of 452 district council seats. [The Guardian] [Reuters]

For a sketch of major measures taken by the Hong Kong government to tighten control over pro-democracy forces in line with the national security see Wenxin Fan in [Wall Street Journal] who concludes that Beijing’s “campaign to crush democracy in Hong Kong is working.”

China: Court orders man to financially compensate ex-wife for housework

(dql) In a landmark decision, a Chinese court has ordered a man to pay some 7.700 USD in compensation to his former wife for raising their son and shouldering housework during their five-year marriage. The woman was also granted custody of the son and awarded a monthly alimony of 300 USD.

The ruling is the first of its kind under China’s new civil code, a wide-ranging legislative package in force since January 1 this year. Aimed at better protecting the rights of individuals, the code contains also a clause allowing a spouse to seek compensation from their partner during divorce in return for more responsibility in looking after children and elderly relatives. [CNN]

Japan: Resignation of Cabinet Public Relations Secretary a setback for Prime Minister Suga

(dql) In a blow to Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s efforts to regain public trust amid low approval ratings due heavy criticism of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, his Cabinet Public Relations Secretary Makiko Yamada resigned this week after she had come under pressure over accusations of violating the national public service ethics law. Media reports revealed that she was treated a costly dinner by a broadcasting firm that employs the Prime Minister’s eldest son in 2019 when she was serving as senior bureaucrat at the Internal Affairs and Communications Ministry which grants licenses to broadcasting businesses. [Kyodo News]  

Japan: Government cuts red tapes for defamation victims seeking information about harassers

(dql) Japan’s government approved a bill to simplify court procedures to help victims of cyberbullying to easier obtain information about those putting defamatory posts online, including their names, postal addresses, and communication records. The envisioned new procedure allows them to undergo only one procedure in which a court is supposed to decide whether or not disclose the requested information. Under the current law, victims in general must go through at least two court proceedings – one against social media operators and a second one against internet service providers. This time consuming and costly procedure has thus far scared off many to take action. [Kyodo News]

Japan: Waiving land rent for Confucian temple unconstitutional 

(dql) Japan’s Supreme Court, the country’s highest court, ruled that the offer of the government of the city of Naha to provide a Confucian temple with the free use of a land lot was unconstitutional as it was “giving a helping hand to a particular religion,” thus violating the principle of separation of religion and state.

In 2014, the city government exempted the temple, dedicated to the ancient Chinese philosopher Confucius, from a yearly land rent of more than 54.000 USD, citing public interest the temple would serve as it provided space to study Confucianism and the history of Okinawa of which Naha is the capital. [Asahi Shimbun]

Japan: Record low number of newborns in 2020

(dql) Deepening concerns about continuously sinking birth rates in Japan, the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Society revealed that the number of babies born in 2020 stood at 872.683. With almost 26.000 less than in 2019, the number marks a new record low. [Mainichi]

South Korea: Supreme Court upholds not-guilty verdict for objector of reserve force duty 

(dql) In a historic first, the South Korean Supreme Court, the country’s top court, upheld a lower courts' decision to acquit a man who was indicted for breaching the Homeland Reserve Forces Act after he refused to fulfill mandatory reservist training duty citing his belief in nonviolence. In the ruling, the Court recognized personal beliefs, not religious reasons, as legitimate justification for refusing to perform the duties of reserve forces.

Signaling a further liberalization of the country's conscription system, the decision follows a 2018 ruling of the Constitutional Court in which it ordered to stop penalties against men refusing conscription on grounds of their religious faith or their personal beliefs in nonviolence. [Korea Times]

South Korea: Parliament approves bills to combat child abuse

(nm) South Korea’s National Assembly has approved a revision of a child abuse law, making the death penalty a possible punishment for perpetrators of fatal child abuse amid a growing number of recent deaths of abused children. 

The revised law allows for convicting child abusers of murder even if they did not intend to cause death, stipulating a minimum sentence of seven-year imprisonment and the maximum capital punishment. 

The parliament also approved a reform bill to strengthen protection against online child abuse. Among others, the new law provides for a jail sentence of up to three years or a fine of up to more than 26.000 USD for repeated online conversations or sexual activities causing sexual desire, shame or disgust. It also scraps the statute of limitations in cases of producing, exporting and importing content involving sexual exploitation of minors. 

These new laws come in response to increasing numbers of child abuse reports which have constantly increased over the past years and almost tripled between 2015 and 2019 to 30.000.  [Korea Herald 1] [Korea Herald 2]

South Korea ratifies UN conventions on workers’ rights and forced labour  

(nm) South Korea’s National Assembly ratified three key International Labor Organization (ILO) conventions on the suppression of forced labour, on freedom of association and protection of the right to organize, and on the right to organize and collective bargaining. They are among the four out of eight conventions South Korea had so far failed to adopt after joining the ILO in 1991, due to resistance of the country’s business sector and conservative politicians. In his election campaign in 2017, President Moon Jae-in made pledges to push for the ratification of the conventions.

The fourth convention on the abolition of forced labour has been set aside by the government due to clashes with domestic laws regulating labor in prisons.

Labour groups have welcomed the move, but urged for swift revision of national laws in contradiction to the conventions. [Yonhap]   

South Korea: Seoul mayoral election candidates chosen 

(nm) The ruling Democratic Party and the minor opposition People’s Party have both declared their respective candidates for the April 7 Seoul mayoral election. Former Startups Minister and four-term lawmaker Park Young-sun won the Democratic Party’s ticket in the party primary with 69.56 percent, beating sitting lawmaker Woo Sang-ho. Elected candidate for the People’s Party is its leader Ahn Cheol-soo who won his primacy against Keum Tae-sup. 

The main opposition People’s Power Party plans to pick its candidate on Thursday. The PPP and PP have agreed to present a unified candidate, thereby increasing their chances of winning the mayoralty. Equally, ruling DP candidate Park will compete with the elected candidates of the Transition Korea party and the Open Democratic Party, when selecting a unified candidate for the liberal bloc. 

The Seoul by-election is considered a critical barometer of public opinion ahead of the 2022 presidential election. [Korea Herald 1] [Korea Herald 2]  

Taiwan: Database on political prosecution cases launched

(dql) On the occasion of the launch of a database of politically motivated cases during the during the authoritarian regimes between 1949 and 1991 in Taiwan, the Transitional Justice Commission (TJC) presented preliminary data which reveal so far a total of 13,268 cases have compiled, adding that three former presidents Chiang Kai-shek, Yen Chia-k, and Chiang’s son Chiang Ching-kuo were among the major decision makers in those cases, with the former participating in court procedures more than 4.100 times, the most of all major decision makers.

The data also shows that 1,153 of the accused were handed down death sentences, 169 life imprisonment, 1,628 jail terms of more than 10 years but less than 15 years and 1,498 imprisonment of more than five years but less than 10 years. [Focus Taiwan]

The launch of the database, part of a broader government policy on transitional justice, comes shortly ahead of the commencement of the 74th anniversary of the 228 Incident which refers to an anti-government uprising in Taiwan on February 28 1947 which was violently suppressed by the then Kuomintang-led Republic of China government. The number of Taiwanese deaths from the incident is estimated to be between 5.000 and 28.000. The 228 Incident has become a key element in the narrative on Taiwanese identity. 

Law and Politics in South Asia 

Bangladesh: Hundreds march in Dhaka to protest death of writer in prison

(lm) Hundreds of Bangladeshi students and activists took to the streets on March 1 in the fourth day of protests sparked by the death of a prominent writer who had collapsed and died in prison on February 25 after being arrest last year on charges of violating the contentious Digital Security Act (DSA). Riot police stopped demonstrators shortly before the Bangladesh Secretariat, which houses the majority of ministries. [Al Jazeera]

During clashes between police and protesters during previous demonstrations, dozens were injured as security forces fired rubber bullets and tear gas at demonstrators marching at the University of Dhaka and the National Press Club. [The Straits Times] [France 24]

Authorities have ordered a committee to determine whether a negligence by jail officials may have caused the death of the writer. But protesters call the incident a ‘custodial murder’, pointing out that the writer was denied bail six times during his ten months in prison. Speaking at a press conference the same day, Prime Minister Hasina brushed aside international concerns over the DSA and the writer’s death saying the law was necessary to prevent ‘the youth from taking a wrong path or getting involved in militancy and terrorism.’ [Deutsche Welle]

Meanwhile, thirteen ambassadors from countries including the United States, France, Britain, Canada, and Germany expressed ‘grave concern’ over the case in a joint statement on February 26. The diplomats called on Bangladesh's government to conduct ‘a swift, transparent and independent inquiry’ into the writer’s death, while also questioning the DSA’s ‘compatibility with Bangladesh's obligations under international human rights laws and standards.’ [bdnews24.com] [South China Morning Post]

Throughout the last year, more than 40 people have been arrested over social media posts about the pandemic, lending credence to concerns that the DSSA is used as a pretense to muzzle critics of the government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic [see AiR No. 24, June/2020, 3]. In January Amnesty International had published a report calling on authorities in Bangladesh to immediately and unconditionally release all artists unlawfully detained and to repeal the Digital Security Act 2018 or substantially amend its repressive provisions. [AiR No. 4, January/2021, 4]

India: Authorities impose tougher rules on social media companies; recruit ‘cyber volunteers’

(lm) India’s Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MEITY) announced new guidelines on February 25 to regulate content on social networks and other web services in the country, notably making making US social media giants more accountable to legal requests for swift removal of posts and sharing details on the originators of messages. Furthermore, the new regulations also require video-streaming platforms to classify content into five categories based on users’ age. [The Straits Times 1]

Published as Intermediary Guidelines and Digital Media Ethics Code, the new rules will be legally enforceable and require big social media companies to set up a grievance redressal mechanism. Platforms are also called upon to appoint executives with law enforcement within three months and will have to publish a compliance report every month detailing how many complaints they received and what action they took. Furthermore, the web services will also be required to remove some types of content, including posts that feature ‘full or partial nudity,’ a ‘sexual act’ or ‘impersonation including morphed images’ within 24 hours of a user flagging them. [CNN] [South China Morning Post]

The new regulations come after social networking service Twitter had initially refused to comply with government orders to restrain the spread of misinformation and inflammatory content related to the ongoing farmers' protest [see AiR No. 7, February/2021, 3]. It also comes after online news portals and over-the-top (OTT) content providers were brought within the MEITY’s purview last year [see AiR No. 47, November/2020, 4].

Separately, India’s Home Ministry has developed plans to create a cybercrime division made up of volunteers who will police the internet for evidence of crimes, including child abuse, terrorism, and anti-national sentiment. But international rights groups, as well as digital rights activists and legal experts say the broad definitions for some of the violations could be used to further harass or censor media outlets and chill free speech in such regions as Kashmir. They also challenge the fact that anyone can sign up to be a volunteer without any need for prior verification, warning that asking citizens to police the internet could lead to bullying and eliminate opposition or diverse voices. [The Straits Times 2] [Voice of America]

India: Prominent case related to farmers’ protests sparks fresh discussion on country’s sedition law

(lm) An Indian court on February 23 granted bail to a young climate activist who was arrested earlier this month for allegedly helping prepare an online document police had linked to the violent clashes in New Delhi on January 26 [see AiR No. 5, February/2021, 1].

Police had filed charges under the sedition law, a relic of the British colonial government once used against Mahatma Gandhi. Once used to suppress the native population, the 19th century sedition statute gives police broad powers to make arrests ahead of filing formal charges if an act or speech by an individual ‘excites or attempts to excite disaffection towards the government.’ Punishment under the law can be a fine or a maximum sentence of life in prison, or both. [Voice of America] [Bloomberg]

She joined at least seven others hit with similar charges, including a former foreign minister, journalists, authors and academics [see AiR No. 5, February/2021, 1]. The arrest was denounced by opposition politicians, student groups and several senior lawyers that say the sedition law is being misused to bully people and frighten them from expressing views contrary to government’s policies. [The Leaflet] [The Straits Times 1]

In the last five years, the number of sedition cases filed against individuals has risen by an average of at least 28 percent each year, according to data collected by Article14, a group of lawyers, journalists and academics. Further, the data showed that the increase in recent years is linked to civilian protest movements, such as the current farmers' protests, as well as protests last year over the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 [see AiR No. 51, December/2019, 3] and over the gang rape of a Dalit woman in Uttar Pradesh [see AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1].

To be sure, only ten people have been convicted under the law in the five years to 2019. For Prime Minister Modi’s government, therefore, the real use of the law may lie in its ability to deny bail and keep people locked up for years while their cases trudge through the court system. [BBC] [The Straits Times 2]

Nepal: House of Representatives summoned for 7 March, following its reinstatement by Supreme Court

(lm) President Bidya Devi Bhandari has summoned the House of Representatives for March 7 following a Supreme Court ruling from February 23, which ordered the reinstatement of the country’s Parliament, pushing Nepal into another round of political instability. [The Hindu] [The Kathmandu Post] [Al Jazeera]

The court order comes two months after Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli plunged Nepal into a political crisis by deciding to dissolve the country’s lower house of parliament and to call for snap elections 18 months ahead of schedule – a controversial move following prolonged internal disputes within his ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]. The decision means that Mr. Oli will likely face a no-confidence motion when legislators reconvene.

The prime minister had defended his decision, describing it as a ‘purely political’ move that did not warrant a judicial review [see AiR No. 3, January/2021, 3]. According to Oli, continuous infightings in the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) had paralyzed both government and Parliament. He also argued that that the resumption of the winter session of the National Assembly was proof that he did not have any mala fide intention in dissolving parliament’s lower house [see AiR No. 52, December/2020, 5].

The court’s decision was welcomed by the opposition as well as members of the dissident faction of the prime minister’s NCP. Since Parliament’s dissolution in December, there have been regular street protests against Oli by tens of thousands of people in Kathmandu and other cities [see e.g. AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2].

Nepal: Oppositional Nepali Congress Party emerges as potential kingmaker

(lm) Factional leaders of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal have met with Sher Bahadur Deuba, the current President of Nepal’s largest opposition party, the Nepali Congress (NC). The meeting assumes added significance, coming as it does in the wake of the recent ruling of the Supreme Court overturning Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s decision to dissolve the House of Representatives [see article above].

While pressure is mounting on the prime minister to resign on moral grounds, Oli has already made clear that he would face a no-confidence motion in Parliament when legislators reconvene. Importantly, to get through the floor test successfully, he must garner the support of a minimum of 138 members of the 275-member House of Representatives. Presently, however, his faction of the NCP only has around 83 lawmakers on his side while the rivaling Dahal-Nepal faction controls 90 lawmakers. [The Kathmandu Post]

With 63 lawmakers, the NC — the second-largest party in the House — has emerged as a virtual kingmaker. Any of the two factions of the NCP could form the government on the majoritarian principle with the support of the NC. Already, both Dahal and Nepal have publicly given statements of their will to support NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba as the PM candidate. [The Hindu] [The Diplomat]

The split of the NCP, which was born out of a post-election merger of the CPN-UML (Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist)) and the Maoist Centre in 2018 [see AiR (4/2/2018)], however, is yet to be formally acknowledged by the country’s Election Commission (EC) [see AiR No. 4, January/2021, 4]. [The Himalayan Times]

Alternatively, thus, the NC’s 63 lawmakers could join hands with the 32 lawmakers from Nepal’s other major opposition party, Janata Samajwadi Party-Nepal (JSP-N). However, the NC, too, is deeply marred by factionalism with senior leaders openly disagreeing with each other [see AiR No. 5, February/2021, 1]. [The Kathmandu Post]

Against this backdrop, it is worth recalling that a Chinese delegation dispatched in the wake of the dissolution of Parliament’s lower house had held meetings with leaders from both NC and JSP-N, testing the water for cross-party support of a Dahal-led NCP. The team also reached out to the next generation of NCP leaders from both camps to get them to nudge their seniors to keep the party united. [AiR No. 1, January/2021, 1]

Nepal: Growing number of Nepali activists face online abuse for protesting against rape and violence

(lm) An increasing number of female activists has been the target of extreme defaming, demeaning, and even rape threats for raising their voices against widespread cases of rape and violence against women in Nepal. Campaigners criticize that proper implementation of the law which supposed to deter online harassment is lacking, adding that many women are reluctant to reveal their identity. [The Kathmandu Post]

Many activists in the past some months have come out on the streets to protest and demand justice after the rape and murder of a teenage girl drew attention to a rise in sexual assault cases. The protests also took place against the backdrop of a recent proposal by the Department of Immigration that women under the age of 40 to have permission from the male members of their families and local governments – among other requirements – to travel abroad. [AiR No. 7, February/2021, 3]

Sri Lanka: Government lifts ban on burial of COVID-19 victims

(lm) Sri Lanka’s government issued a gazette on February 25 suspending its policy of forced cremations of coronavirus victims. Before, authorities had continued to defy calls for burials despite a pledge two weeks ago by Sri Lankan Prime Minister Mahindra Rajapaksa to permit them [see AiR No. 7, February/2021, 3].

Ignoring the World Health Organization’s (WHO) guidelines which permit both burials and cremations, Buddhist-majority Sri Lanka amended its rules on burials and cremations last April, making cremations of COVID-19 victims mandatory [see AiR No. 20, May/2020, 3]. Human and religious rights groups, as well as local Muslim associations had since resented the policy, calling it unscientific and insensitive of Muslim religious beliefs. The United Nations and the United States have also raised concerns with the government [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4].

Timing and context of the announcement are noteworthy: For a start, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan concluded a working visit to Sri Lanka earlier this month, after holding separate meetings with Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, and attending an investors’ conference [see AiR No. 8, February/2021, 4]. Furthermore, the 57-member Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) raised the forced cremation policy at the 46th session of the United Nations Human Rights Council (UN HRC) last week. [Eurasia Review]

There is a good case to believe that Sri Lanka considers its reversal on the cremation policy a bargain with Muslim countries. For the UN HRCR is likely to adopt a resolution on Sri Lanka’s accountability and post-war reconciliation at the end of the four-week spring session, which began on February 22 [see AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2]. [The Indian Express]

Sri Lanka: Easter bombings investigation calls for former president to be prosecuted

(lm) An investigation into the 2019 Easter Sunday suicide bombings has called for Sri Lanka’s former President Maithripala Sirisena as well as senior police and intelligence officials to be prosecuted. In its report, which was handed to Parliament on February 24, said the ‘balance of probability’ was that Sirisena was told by his intelligence chief about the warnings before the attacks. [Al Jazeera] [CNN]

On 21 April, 2019, suicide bombers started a coordinated series of attacks on three Christian churches and four hotels across the island nation, killing more than 260 people and injuring 500 more [see AiR (4/4/2019)]. It quickly emerged that Indian intelligence, following a tip-off, had warned Sri Lanka of a potential terrorist act 17 days earlier. The former President at the time acknowledged that he was abroad ‘for a personal holiday’ when the intelligence memos were sent to Sri Lankan defense ministry and police chiefs. However, he also claimed that he had not been alerted to such warnings [see AiR (1/7/2019)].

The report by the Presidential Commission of Inquiry also said then Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe had a ‘lax approach’ towards Islamic extremism, which ‘was one of the primary reasons for the failure.’ Furthermore, the report found that Wickremesinghe was not invited by then President Sirisena for any National Security Council meetings. While testifying before the commission last October, the former Prime Minister had acknowledged a clear breakdown in the country’s security apparatus at the time of the bombings [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3].

Testifying before the commission shortly thereafter, the country’s former Director of the State Intelligence Service (SIS) had claimed reports about a possible terrorist operation had been known as early as April 4, and shared with foreign embassies, intelligence services and police officers in Sri Lanka’s Western Province [see AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4]. The country’s former intelligence chief had been dismissed in December 2019 after a parliamentary committee had concluded that he was primarily responsible for the intelligence failure. However, he refused to step down and appealed to the Supreme Court over his ‘unfair dismissal’ [see AiR No. 50, December/2019, 2].

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Cambodia: Local protest in support of land law activists

(nd) In solidarity with six arrested activists, land dispute victims from nearly half of Cambodia’s two dozen provinces protested in their respective communities for the government to drop charges. Additionally, protesters urged the government to intervene with local authorities and provincial governments to resolve disputes, and stop security forces from intimidating and arresting villagers.

Widespread land grabs are common, with authorities seizing land from local farmers in order to use it for development projects or foreign invested enterprises without paying fair compensation for their lost livelihoods. Adding to the six charged, according to local NGOs another 172 activists are facing charges of “incitement to commit a felony” or “provoke social disorder” after demanding the return of their land. [Radio Free Asia]

Cambodia: Opposition politicians sentenced in mass trial

(nd) Cambodian opposition figure Sam Rainsy was sentenced in absentia to 25 years in jail for allegedly plotting to overthrow Prime Minister Hun Sen's government. He was also stripped of rights to vote and stand as a candidate in an election. Rainsy has lived in French exile since 2015. Besides Rainsy, eight other opposition politicians, including Rainsy’s wife, were sentenced in absentia to between 20 and 22 years in jail. Cambodia started mass trials against more than 150 opposition figures for treason and incitement in November last year, which was heavily criticized internationally. Many of the defendants were unable to face the charges in person. Rights groups say the trial is politically motivated and aims at keeping opposition politicians from contesting in the country’s general election. Hun Sen is the longest-serving leader in Southeast Asia, with 36 years in power and ruling in a de-facto one-party state since the dissolution of the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party in 2017. [ABC]

Malaysia: King to decide parliament can sit during emergency

(nd) According to a decision by the King interpreting the emergency ordinance, the Malaysian parliament can sit during the ongoing emergency rule. The latest decision is a setback for Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, who was criticized for using the emergency rule to avoid a vote of no confidence on his administration. According to many lawmakers, Muhyiddin lost his razor-thin majority in December last year, when he lost the support of two lawmakers. Once parliament is resumed, a no-confidence vote against Muhyiddin is highly likely.

Recent analyses suggest, however, that they will not be successfully tabled. Over the weekend, two lawmakers expressed their support for Muhyiddin. 

Malaysia is a constitutional monarchy, in which the King is head but largely assumes ceremonial functions.  [Benar News 1] [Benar News 2]

Malaysia: Local Islamic Law on gay sex deemed unconstitutional

(nd) A Muslim man won a lawsuit he filed after being arrested for attempting gay sex. Same-sex acts are illegal in Malaysia. The country has a dual-track legal system, with Islamic criminal and family laws applicable to Muslims running alongside civil laws.

The law in question was an Islamic ban on sex "against the order of nature". The court unanimously ruled the Islamic provision used in state Selangor was unconstitutional and state authorities had no power to enact the law.

While the ruling leaves intact a federal statute criminalizing same-sex relations - Section 377, a British colonial-era law, - with punishments up to 20 years in jail, LGBT+ advocates, nevertheless, hope the landmark decision to be the start of greater acceptance of gay rights, while stating that Islamic laws have been increasingly used to target the country's gay community. [CNN]

Myanmar: Lethal force against protesters, international backlash

(nd) Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi met her Myanmar counterpart Wunna Maung Lwin and Thai Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai in Bangkok to facilitate an ASEAN approach to respond to the recent military coup in Myanmar. Uniting the regional bloc, which is governed by the principle of non-interference, will be a challenge though. In a statement, Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha confirmed his participation in the talks, stressing that their meeting was not signaling an “endorsement” of the situation. In reverse, there was also no condemnation as well. [Bangkok Post]

Indonesian Minister Marsudi reported from her trip to Brunei last week, that the Sultan supports a special ASEAN meeting on Myanmar. She also had telephone conversations with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the foreign ministers of Japan, India and China on the issue. Indonesia is the largest member of ASEAN. It accounts for 40% of its population and gross domestic product, and has a track record of pushing for delicate issues to be tabled on the ASEAN agenda. [See also AiR No. 8, February/2021, 4] So far, however, Myanmar seems to have rejected the offer of a special foreign ministers' meeting of the ASEAN member states. The response from other member states remained divided. [Nikkei Asia 1] 

Also, some activists criticized Indonesia for its approach for allegedly legitimizing the junta leaders. Moreover, in a joint open letter to ASEAN, dozens of Southeast Asian NGOs said that the fractured response will damage the bloc’s image and credibility. [Benarnews]

According to a leaked document, the World Bank has notified the military that it put on hold disbursements for their operations as of February 1. Payment application prior to the coup will still be executed. [Irrawaddy 1] Following a partial ban last week, Facebook banned all remaining accounts, pages, media entities, and commercial ads run by the military on Facebook and Instagram, citing the “deadly violence” occurring since the coup. Facebook is Myanmar’s most popular social media platform and a frequently used site for information. [Irrawaddy 2]

Meanwhile, the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) is gaining momentum with more and more individuals and businesses joining to boycott products linked to the military. Additionally, shops and roadside vendors started to refuse to sell goods to the police, military personnel, and their family members, to oppose the security forces’ crackdown on protesters. [Irrawaddy 3] The CDM is growing steadily and is noticeable in everyday life, leaving hospitals, bank, factories and government offices empty. Some 50 civil servants lost their job over their participation in the strike. According to an estimate by the UN special rapporteur on Myanmar, three-quarters of the civil servants are on strike. Overnight arrests are targeting CDM participants in particular. [Channel News Asia]

The coup continues to affect Myanmar’s economy, with Japanese automaker Toyota announcing a delay in opening a factory due to the situation. Japan also considers stopping new official development aid to Myanmar amid the deadly crackdown on protesters. On Friday, a Japanese journalist was detained by the police. [Nikkei Asia 2]

Japan has been assisting Myanmar economically since 2011 and provided 189.3-billion-yen ($1.8 billion) in official development aid (ODA) in 2019. Unlike US and Europe, Japan kept ties to the military and did not impose sanctions of Myanmar, but froze ODA, which it tied to democratization efforts. Also with the latest coup, Japan has not imposed sanctions yet and seems to be looking to get in contact with the military to avoid driving Myanmar closer to China. Still, Japan joined US and Europe in their criticism of the coup and urged the military to stop its crackdown on protesters. [Nikkei Asia 3]

Last Thursday, protesters clashed with around hundred military supporters in Yangon, hinting at more escalation. [Voice of America] Following almost 800 arrests among protesters, the military started to target major, medium-sized and small business owners and contractors across the country by interrogating and in certain cases detaining them detained by the Office of the Chief of Security Affairs, the most feared branch of Myanmar’s military intelligence agency. All business owners were accused of entertaining ties and having made donations to the National League for Democracy (NLD) or Aung San Suu Kyi’s mother’s charitiy, the Daw Khin Kyi Foundation. Their whereabouts are unknown. [Asia Times]

At least 25 journalists were arrested nationwide, with 10 remaining detained. [Irrawaddy]

Over the weekend, at least 18 people died and many were wounded when police used live rounds to disperse protesters. The UN, EU, Canada and Japan have strongly condemned the violence. [Irrawaddy 4] UN special rapporteur Tom Andrews released a statement listing options for UN member states and the security council to take action. Among them were a global arms embargo, sanctions against businesses owned or controlled by the junta, and to convene the UN Security Council. He also urged countries that imposed sanctions to “immediately consider more.” [Voice of America] Even before the last weekend’s violence, Myanmar’s ambassador to the UN intensely urged the international community to take the “strongest possible action”, flashing the three-finger-salute used by pro-democracy protesters. [Asia Times 2] After his speech, according to leaked documents the military recalled at least 100 staff from missions in at least 19 countries, transferring more than 50 staff from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) to the vacant positions. [Irrawaddy 5]

The military asked security forces not to use live rounds any more, following the international criticism. [South China Morning Post]

On Monday, the first trial day was held via video conference, showing ousted leader Aung Sun Suu Kyi in good health. It is expected to be a lengthy trial to keep her detained and possibly unavailable for the announced new general election, after two more charges were added against her. Meanwhile, the military spokesperson announced that the office of state counselor, a position established for Suu Kyi who could not become president due to her foreign husband, would be eliminated. [Nikkei Asia 4]

On Tuesday, a special ASEAN foreign minister meeting was resumed. Both Singapore and Malaysia condemned the violence. Singapore faced heavy criticism for being the main source of foreign direct investment in Myanmar and entertaining close links to the junta.

Philippines: Justice official to admit wrongdoings in war on drugs

(nd) Philippine Justice Secretary said that law enforcement personnel had flawed “standard protocols” in most drug raids, admitting that the Philippine National Police have intentionally killed suspects in the five-year going war on drugs under President Rodrigo Duterte. Analysts believe this could spark further international pressure on the government, and thereby, limit deadly force against suspects.

The statement is seen as an effort to calm UN leaders given the latest findings of the International Criminal Court Prosecutor and a rights council resolution to support the Philippines in capacity building passed in October last year. International Criminal Court Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda after that found "reasonable basis" for crimes against humanity within the government’s anti-drug campaign, with law enforcement agents not following “standard protocols” in more than half of the cases. Duterte was elected in 2016 and promised a drug-free Philippines. He still enjoys high approval rates within the Philippine population. [Voice of America]

Thailand: Three cabinet members convicted by Criminal Court

(nd) On Thursday, three ministers in Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha's cabinet were convicted by the Central Criminal Court in Bangkok for their involvement in the extended street protests that eventually culminated in the 2014 coup by then army commander Prayuth, ousting Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. The cabinet members – two ministers and a deputy-minister – all received prison sentences, the maximum was seven years. They had to leave office, for the constitution foresees them being barred from office if convicted for a criminal offense. Besides the three, 26 other members of the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC), often referred to as Yellow Shirts, were convicted. The group was led by former Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, a prominent Democrat party member and royalist, who was sentenced to five years. The defendants were found guilty of sedition, trespassing, and instigating strikes. [Nikkei Asia]

Thailand: Unidentified men at protests not clarified

(nd) Weeks after about 40 unidentified men next to security forces cracked down on protesters, both police and the defense ministry state they have no knowledge about their identity but would be investigating. The men were next to riot police and not driven out by the police during the operation. Reportedly, many demonstrators and observers saw similar unidentified men working closely with security officers in previous rallies, having been nicknamed “Minions”. Activists reinforced that deploying unidentified men in plain clothes is not in line with international standards of handling crowds. [Khaosod]

Thailand: Further charges and more refused bail for protest leaders

(nd) The Technology Crime Suppression Division (TCSD) is likely to open investigations into Facebook posts made by two already detained anti-government protest leaders, Parit Chiwarak and Arnon Nampa. Along with other co-leaders of the ongoing street protests, the two are facing inter alia charges under the strict lese majesté laws.

Reportedly, comments deemed a violation of the Computer Crime Act still occurred on their Facebook accounts, however, even after they were detained. According to the NGO Thai Lawyers for Human Rights (TLHR) the Criminal Court again denied bail for the two and two other other co-leaders of the protests. They have been detained for the past 14 days and will remain indefinitely until the trial is over, or bail granted. [Bangkok Post] [Prachatai]

Thailand: Excessive use of force of police criticized

(nd) On Sunday, a protest rally headed for Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha’s residence inside the 1st Infantry Regiment base clashed with the police. The police used rubber bullets, water cannon and tear gas against the protesters. 33 were hurt, 22 arrested and one police man died of a heart attack. The police were criticized for again using violent force against protesters. [Bangkok Post] Prayuth defended the police, stating the measures were in compliance with international standards. [Chiangrai Times]

Vietnam to apply for seat in United Nations Human Rights Council

(lm) Vietnam made public on February 22 its intensions to seek membership of the United Nations Human Rights Council (UN HRC) for the 2023-2025 term. According to the country’s foreign minister, Vietnam has been endorsed as the ASEAN candidate for this post in competition with candidates from other countries in the United Nations (UN)’s Asia and the Pacific representational grouping. [Radio Free Asia] [VNExpress]

The UN HRC has 47 members elected for staggered three-year terms using the United Nations regional grouping system. The Asia and the Pacific Group consists of 55 Member States (27.5 percent of UN members) and is the second largest regional group by number of member states after the African Group. The Group has 13 seats on the UN HRC.

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China-US trade relations to remain troubled over rare-earths and technology 

(dql/zh) US President Joe Biden has instructed his administration in an executive order to conduct a review to identify and fix potential cracks in critical supply chains that could affect Americans’ everyday life. While the order does not mention any country, it is believed to mainly target China. The review will focus on four areas to determine where the vulnerabilities lie: semiconductor, large capacity batteries, pharmaceuticals and drug ingredients, and rare-earth metals

Rare-earth minerals have become one of the focal issues in the deteriorating US-China trade relationship, with China having leverage over the US with its near-monopolistic control of the supply chain for these metals and recently looking into potential damage to US and European companies caused by limitations on rare earth exports. Between 2016 and 2019, 80% of rare earth imports to the US originated from China. [Bloomberg][CNN]

For a discussion on the role Australia – home to the world’s six largest reserves of rare-earth minerals – could play in forging a front with the US, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan against China’s rare earths dominance, see Matthew Page and John Coyne in [The Strategist] who also draw attention to China’s dependency on Myanmar’s heavy rare earths.

Furthermore, the Biden administration is reportedly considering to allow a sweeping rule from the Trump-era aimed at tackling Chinese technology posing threats to national security to take effect next month, under which the Commerce Department would be enabled to ban technology-related business transactions that it determines as a national security threat, part of an effort to secure US supply chains. [Wall Street Journal]

For views of global tech executives in this and other matters of the US-China tech competition see the poll report in [Brookings] which concludes that – among others – it is to be expected that both the US and China will “push policies that encourage greater decoupling, causing the global technology industry to increasingly bifurcate into two spheres,” with the result that “Chinese companies will take the lead in some emerging high-tech systems and solutions markets, and while China will continue to close the gap in overall technology capability, the United States will maintain its overall lead in core technology capabilities, such as semiconductors and operating systems.”

Echoing the assessment of China lagging behind in core technology capabilities, the Chinese government has scrapped a 20 billion USD semiconductor manufacturing project following the decision of its key operator Wuhan Hongxin Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (HSMC) its decision to dismiss all employees. 

Launched in November 2017 and expected to become a state-of-the art facility, HSMC soon face complains about delayed payments and about leading employees lacking background in semiconductor manufacturing. HSMC is the latest of more than ten government sponsored semiconductor projects which were reported to have crashed over the past two years. [South China Morning Post]

For a discussion of China’s recent efforts to strengthen autonomy in semiconductor production, see Yvette To in [East Asia Forum] who concludes that, despite government development subsidies of 50 billion USD over the past two decades, “China’s chip manufacturing capability is at least two generations (7–10 years)” behind Taiwan as the leader in this industry.

Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden’s nominee as the new head of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), William Burns, a former career diplomat who already worked in both Democratic and Republican administrations, called in his confimration hearing in the Senate China “an adversarial power and the intelligence community’s greatest geopolitical challenge.” He added the warning that the competition with China “is not like the competition with the Soviet Union in the Cold War, which was primarily in security and ideological terms. This is an adversary that is extraordinarily ambitious with technology and capable in economic terms as well.” [New York Times]

For insights into China's political warfare, see Kerry Gershaneck in [Sunday Guardian Live] who warns that "democracies’ blindness to PRC political warfare severely undermines the ability to conceptualize the threat."  

China-Japan relations: Tokyo voices concerns over mass arrests in Hong Kong

(dql/zh) In response to a question from an opposition party during a parliamentary session, the Japanese government issued a statement criticizing China’s grip on Hong Kong, saying it “cannot tolerate mass arrests” and had “grave concerns” over the situation in the city. At the same time, the statement stressed the importance of economic and personal ties between Japan and Hong Kong, saying Tokyo had conveyed its position to Beijing and was working with allied countries on the issue. Japan was Hong Kong’s fourth-largest trading partner in 2019. [South China Morning Post]

The statement comes as Sino-Japanese tensions over disputed islands in the East China Sea flared up after Chinese coast guard ships entered disputed waters around the Senkaku/Diayu islands, prompting intervention by a Japanese patrol ship as well as criticism of the US Department of Defense (DoD) calling on China “to stop sending government ships into Japan’s territorial waters,” and refrain from actions that could cause “miscalculations” and “potential physical harm.” The DoD added that the US was committed to defending Japan in case of conflict, according to  Article 5 of the 1906 bilateral security treaty between both the US and Japan. [NHK] [Republic World]

In response, China’s Foreign Ministry lashed out against Japan and the US calling the Japan-US mutual security pact a product of the Cold War, “which should not harm a third party’s interest or endanger regional peace and stability.” [Military Times]

Cross-strait relations: PLA and Taiwanese concurrently hold military exercises in the South China Sea

(dql) Amid high running cross-strait tensions, China and Taiwan are holding military drills at the same time in the South China Sea. According to a notice of Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration (CGA), the Tawainese military conducted a round of live-fire exercise on Monday on the Taiwan-held Pratas Islands. Similar drills are scheduled to be staged next week. China, meanwhile, kicked off on the same day a month-long military exercise west of the Leizhou Peninsula in Guangdong province. [Focus Taiwan 1] [South China Morning Post]

In an earlier show of force, at least 10 Chinese bombers belonging to the Southern Theatre Command conducted maritime strike exercises in the South China Sea, immediately after the Lunar New Year Holiday which ended on February 17. The drills involved China’s most advanced H-6J bomber. [Global Times 1]

Further fueling the tensions, last week the US was also present in the disputed region. While various reconnaissance aircraft as well as the ocean surveillance ship USNS Impeccable carried out surveillance missions in the South China Sea, a US Navy Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer transited through the Taiwan Strait. [Global Times 2] [Focus Taiwan 2]

Meanwhile, two US lawmakers have introduced a resolution calling for the US government to resume formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan and end the "one China policy." It also urged he government to negotiate a bilateral free trade agreement with Taiwan, and support Taiwan's membership in international organizations. [Taiwan News]

China-Australia relations: Chinese students discouraged to study in Down Under

(dql) Already strained Sino-Australian relations continue to spiral downward, after reports surfaced revealing that local authorities issued directives encouraging Chinese recruitment agencies to abstain from sending students to Australia. While there has been no official communication about this action yet, universities across Australia are a bracing for a substantial drop in Chinese students.

A critical revenue source for Australian universities, Chinese students in 2019 made up for 10 billion AUSD in foreign student fees and 37% in enrolments, making China the largest source country. [Sydney Morning Herald]

China-French relations: Xi reaches out to Macron as driving force of Sino-EU relations  

(dql) Chinese President Xi Jinping in a phone talk has reached out to French counterpart Emmanuel Macron as driving force for Sino-EU relations. Xi expressed his support for Macron’s call for the European Union’s strategic autonomy, while at the same time reassuring that Beijing was ready to join hands with Paris “to actively explore tripartite cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe, so as to open up new space for China-EU cooperation.” Xi also called for joint efforts to have the China-EU investment deal, agreed between leaders on both sides, ratified and put into effect. 

Furthermore, both leaders discussed ways to strengthen cooperation in various areas including support for the World Health Organization’s fight against the pandemic, debt relief and suspension for Africa and climate change. [Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China]

Xi’s outreach to France comes at a time when China is confronted with growing dissatisfaction among Central and Eastern European countries over their cooperation with China, mostly in the frame of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, and the EU-China investment deal is facing backlash in European Parliament (EP) after members of the EP accused the European Commission of ignoring labor conditions in China. [AiR No. 8, February/2021, 4] [South China Morning Post]

Macron, on his side, made clear in a recent online discussion of the Washington-based think tank Atlantic Council that he was not supporting a US-EU transatlantic common front against China, calling a "situation to join all together against China,"  a "scenario of the highest possible conflictuality." [Politico]

China-Netherlands relations: Genocide is going on in Xinjiang, Dutch parliaments says, amid calls for boycott of Beijing’s 2022 Winter Olympic Games

(zh) The Dutch parliament had passed a non-binging motion stating “a genocide on the Uighur minority is occurring in China”, without directly saying the Chinese government was responsible. The Dutch Foreign Minister Stef Blok, however, told reporters that “the situation of the Uighurs is a cause of great concerns”, adding the government did not want to use the term genocide as the situation has yet been declared by the United Nations or an international court. The Dutch parliament is the second national assembly to pass such motion, following the Canadian parliament which overwhelmingly voted for earlier in February. 

In response, the Chinese Embassy in The Hague described any suggestion of genocide in Xinjiang as an “outright lie”, criticizing the Dutch parliament had “grossly interfered in China’s internal affairs.”  [AiR No.8, February/2021,4] [Reuters] 

In a related statement, UN human rights chief Michelle Bachelet decried the reported arbitrary detentions and ill-treatment of Muslim Uighurs in China’s Xinjiang, demanding a thorough and independent assessment of the situation. [Aljazeera]

With international criticism of China’s treatment of the Muslim Uighur minority in Xinjiang unabating, governments have increasingly come under the pressure to declare a boycott of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics. [BBC 1] In a latest statement, the White House said the US had not made a final decision on that, signaling a slight shift from early February when the Biden administration said the US would not change the plans related to the Olympics. Meanwhile, the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson rejected the call from the Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey to withdraw athletes from the Beijing games, saying the UK did not “normally” support sporting boycotts and was “leading international action in the UN to hold China to account.” [BBC 2][CNBC]

China has consistently denied any mistreatment against the Uighurs in Xinjiang, stressing China’s action is to combat terrorism and separatism. “There has never been so-called genocide, forced labor, or religious oppression in Xinjiang,” said the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, “Such inflammatory accusations are fabricated out of ignorance and prejudice, they are simply malicious and politically-driven hype and could not be further from the truth.” He also said China welcomed visits by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights to the region. [Hong Kong Free Press]

Africa largest beneficiary of China’s Belt and Road energy finance in 2020

(dql) Reflecting China’s efforts to increase its influence in Africa, the bulk or at least two-thirds of its total spending on overseas energy financing in 2020 was allocated to African projects, according to data released by the Global Development Policy of Boston University.

While overall, overseas financing for energy projects dropped by 43% from 8.1 billion USD in 2019 to 4.6 billion USD in 2020, Africa received 3.1 billion out of last year’s total. [Boston University] [South China Morning Post]

US-North Korea relations: US court awards 2.3 billion USD in damages over 1968 torture case, experts call for stressing human rights in normalization talks 

(nm/dql) A federal district court in Washington ordered North Korea to pay 2.3 billion USD in damages to the crew and family of the US naval ship USS Pueblo captured in 1968, as court documents released last week show. The case was filed on behalf of 61 former crew members and 110 family members three years ago after the Trump administration redesignated North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism in late 2017.

The USS Pueblo, a US spy ship disguised as a marine research vessel, was captured by North Korea in January 1968. One man was killed, while the remaining 82 crewmembers were captured, charged with spying, mentally and physically abused, and imprisoned. They were later released after a written statement from the US admitting the USS Pueblo was spying as well as a vow not to spy on North Korea again. 

In North Korea’s narrative the seizure of the Pueblo was a legitimate wartime move, while the US Navy insists the ship was in international waters when captured. [Foreign Policy] [Yonhap]

The court ruling comes at a time when the Biden administration is reviewing the US policy toward North Korea and several US experts on Korean affairs have stressed the need to include human rights issues in future peace and de-nuclearization talks with North Korea as. [Korea Herald 1] 

An interesting proposal for a new US diplomatic strategy toward North Korea which suggests that the “unachievable objective of complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization (CVID) should be dropped in favor of a more realistic step-by-step approach based on an equal commitment to denuclearization and peace,” is available at [38 North]. For a similar position suggesting to shift away from the “hostile” strategy toward North Korea under the Trump administration, see Doug Bandow in [National Interest] who argues for pairing “a peace declaration, which the Biden administration could issue unilaterally, with a commitment to negotiate a formal treaty,” to improve bilateral relations as preconditions of talks on disarmament and denuclearization. He adds that in this approach the “Biden administration should not be afraid to propose measures that benefit America just because they also would benefit North Korea.”

Meanwhile, according to a report, the US State Department further warned that North Korea’s strict Covid-19 measures significantly impeded humanitarian efforts by outside organizations, UN agencies, and other countries. In spite of claiming to be coronavirus-free, Pyongyang has taken relatively drastic measures since early 2020, including completely sealing its borders and restrictions on movement. [Korea Herald 2] 

South Korea-US-Iran relations: Diplomats discuss Teheran’s assets frozen in Seoul 

(nm/dql) South Korea held talks with the US as well as with Iran in talks over the possible release of 7 billion USD in Iranian assets frozen in two banks in South Korea due to US sanctions, with Iranian and South Korean media reporting that an agreement between Seoul and Tehran to unfreeze the funds was reached. [Korea Herald] [Korea Times] [Forbes]

The talks have been prompted after a Korean flagged oil tanker along with 20 crewmembers had been seized by Iran in early January. The seizure has been widely seen as a move to put pressure on South Korea over the locked assets. Iran denied these claims saying that vessel was captured for violating environmental protocols. All crewmembers but the captain have since been released, widely seen as result of progress in closed-door talks. [East Asia Forum] [AiR No. 2, January/2021, 2] 

Whether concessions of US allies like these can be a momentum for the Biden administration to build on to “reengage in meaningful diplomacy” and to get Iran to return to compliance with Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), remains to be seen given that Tehran declined to participate in a meeting last weekend with the US and several European countries to discuss the nuclear deal saying that it will not respond to “gestures” and that the “US must first […] lift its illegal sanctions on Iran.” [DW]  

For a critical assessment of the Biden administration’s insistence on Tehran implementing the JCPOA first see Alireza Ahmadi in [National Interest] who argues that “much of the Biden administration’s calculations seem to be based on assessments that see Trump’s maximum pressure campaign as having supplied leverage.” He adds that against this background Tehran’s position would be that it “makes little sense […] to return to some form of unilateral full compliance for a limited amount of actual economic benefit only to then engage in a years-long negotiation where it has little leverage and is being called on to surrender its regional interests and deterrence capacities.”

South Korea-Japan relations: Moon reaffirms openness to talks at Independence Movement Day celebrations 

(nm) South Korean President Moon Jae-in has stressed his openness to talks with Japan in his speech delivered during a ceremony to mark the 102nd anniversary of the March 1 Independence Movement Day, presenting a ‘two-track’ approach towards improving South Korean-Japanese relations. While expressing his determination to improve both countries’ “cooperation and forward-looking development,” he at the same declared that “the Korean Government will always pursue wise solutions based on a victim-centered approach.” [Yonhap]

This second track refers to disputes over Japan’s wartime rule on the Korean and rulings of South Korean courts ordering the Japanese government and Japanese companies to pay compensation to South Korean victims of sexual enslavement and forced labour during that time. Bilateral relations have plummeted to historic lows over the issues over the past years. [Korea Times] [Korea Herald]

The March 1 Independence Movement Day refers to a protest movement led by Korean students calling for independence from Japan, and protesting forced assimilation into the Japanese way of life. 

India, Pakistan agree to observe ceasefire agreements along Line of Control

(lm) India and Pakistan in a rare joint statement announced on February 25 both sides had agreed to observe a ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC) – the de facto border that divides the disputed Kashmir valley between the two countries – and all other sectors. However, New Delhi emphasized that its military would maintain deployments along the LoC to prevent infiltration and continue counterinsurgency operations in the Kashmir Valley. [Indian Ministry of Defense] [ACB News] [The Hindu]

India and Pakistan signed a Ceasefire Understanding in 2003, but the truce has been frayed, with frequent clashes and cross-border shelling in recent months reportedly killing multiple civilians [see e.g. AiR No. 52, December/2020, 5]. The return to a truce was settled during a phone conversation between the Director Generals of Military Operations (DGsMO) on February 22. Attentive observers of both countries believe the joint statement to be the result of months-long backchannel talks between India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and his Pakistani counterpart Moeed Yusuf. [The Federal] [Hindustan Times]

Coming like a bolt from the blue, the agreement triggered speculations about the causes that lie behind it.

Coming only weeks after China and India have agreed to withdraw frontline troops along Pangong Tso [see AiR No. 7, February/2021, 3], some analysts say the moves may have been choreographed with Beijing. To be sure, there is a good case to believe that India’s decision in 2019 to unilaterally abrogate Article 370 of the constitution, thereby breaking the state of Kashmir into two union territories [see AiR No. 32, August/2019, 1], was at least in part motivated by concerns over a possible two-front conflict due to increased cooperation between the Islamabad and Beijing [see e.g. AiR No. 3, January/2021, 3]. [South China Morning Post]

In fact, while the international narrative has largely been limited to the bilateral dispute between Pakistan and India, China - through its claims on Aksai Chin and the Shaksgam Valley – remains an interested party in the territorial issue of Jammu and Kashmir. [The EurAsian Times]

At any rate, from India’s perspective, curbing cross-border infiltration and support to militancy from across Pakistan frees up more policy space to focus on the China issue. A case in point, security forces in Indian-administered Kashmir are have raised red flags over the recent arrival of ‘sticky bombs’ - small, magnetic bombs which can be attached to vehicles and detonated remotely – including 15 seized in a February raid. Indian officials say none of the devices seized in the disputed territory was produced there, suggesting they were being smuggled from Pakistan. [Reuters] [The Citizen]

Nevertheless, some Indian observers question the sincerity of the agreement, pointing out that Pakistan’s Kashmir policy has always been in flux between bilateral talks on the one hand and a militaristic approach on the other. Hence, they suggest that the ceasefire agreement may be best understood a tactical move by India. That is, New Delhi, for its part, may use the agreement to keep its toolkit ready at a time when the new US Biden-Harris administration has committed itself to pursuing a foreign policy centered on democracy, human rights, and equality. [Observer Research Foundation]

Sri Lanka urges rejection of resolution at 46th UN HRC session

(lm) Sri Lanka has urged the United Nations Human Rights Council (UN HRC) to reject a forthcoming resolution which voices ‘serious concern’ over the ‘deteriorating’ rights situation in the island nation. Addressing the Council through video link, Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Dinesh Gunawardena said on February 23 member states would have to decide whether time should be spent raking over Sri Lanka or if the resolution was politically motivated. [Al Jazeera]

In the run-up to the session, the Britain-led Core Group on Sri Lanka comprising the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, North Macedonia and Montenegro, had circulated a draft of the resolution among UN HRC member states [see AiR No. 7, February/2021, 3]. It is expected to be adopted at the end of the four-week UN HRC spring session, which began on February 22. [BBC]

Against the larger backdrop of a strategic competition between India and China, Beijing on February 26 extended its support for Colombo saying it would oppose politicizing human rights to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. [Republic World]

India, on the contrary, took a moderate stance sticking to just one key issue – the non-implementation of the Thirteenth Amendment to the Constitution of Sri Lanka (13A) which aims at creating provincial councils, while also enabling Sinhalese and Tamil as national languages. New Delhi takes the view that a devolution of power to the Tamil-dominated Northern and Eastern Province is essential for ethnic reconciliation and lasting peace in the island nation [see also AiR No. 40, October/2020, 1]. [Eurasia Review] 

The resolution will be informed by a scathing report of the Office of the High Commissioner of Human Rights (OHCHR) Michelle Bachelet. It documents the alarming retrograde trends on human rights in Sri Lanka and notes that the steps taken by the current government are a ‘warning sign’ of future violations. This explains why Bachelet recommends UN HRC member states consider a referral to the International Criminal Court (ICC) for investigation. She also recommends the Council to establish investigations and prosecutions under universal jurisdiction, and to impose sanctions on Sri Lankan officials implicated in international crimes [see AiR No. 5, February/2021, 1]. [United Nations Human Rights Council]

Sri Lanka earlier this month strongly rejected the report, saying it contained ‘speculative, presumptive and unsubstantiated opinions [see AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2].’ Colombo also approached several member states, including India, in the run-up to the UN HRC session, asking them to lobby other member nations of the body.

India, China agree to set up hotline between foreign ministers to cool down border tension

(lm) Indicating positive momentum in China-India ties, the two neighbors have agreed to set up a hotline between their foreign ministers, complementing a military hotline already in place between the Indian Army’s Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) and China’s Western Theatre Command. The decision was reached in a phone conversation between India’s Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi - talking for the first time in five months - on February 25. [Al Jazeera]

Prior to the phone conversation, both sides had completed the pull-back of troops from the southern and northern shores of Pangong Tso, a glacial lake at 4,242m that had become a flashpoint in the prolonged border dispute [see AiR No. 8, February/2021, 4]. As per an agreement announced by India’s Defense Minister Rajnath Singh earlier this month, the two countries are now to hold talks to resolve the remaining issues along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh.

Against this backdrop, the two diplomats emphasized the need to implement the consensus reached on the side-lines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Moscow last September [see AiR No. 36, September/2020, 2]. Thus, Jaishankar informed his Chinese counterpart that restoring normality to the broader bilateral relationship would first require complete disengagement and ensuing de-escalation along the border. 

China, however, takes the view that India’s holistic approach, comprising blocking Beijing from participating in government tenders, and banning dozens of Chinese apps [see e.g. AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1], among other things, was going against a past consensus of containing differences while cooperating elsewhere. [The Hindu]

Pakistan again gets extension to make case for exiting FATF list

(lm) The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has given Pakistan time until June to show the country had done enough to be removed from the watchdog’s list of Jurisdictions under Increased Monitoring - often externally referred to as the ‘grey list’. [Bloomberg]

The decision was made on February 25, the third and final day of the inter-governmental organization’s virtual meeting [see AiR No. 8, February/2021, 4]. During the session, the FATF had reviewed Pakistan’s measures against money laundering and terror financing and found that Islamabad had addressed 24 of the 27 action items assigned to it. All of these deficiencies are related to terror financing, according to the FATF.

This is the second extension after Pakistan failed to meet four previous deadlines. Four months ago, Islamabad was asked to see through the internationally agreed action plan by February and to demonstrate that terrorism financing probes resulted in effective sanctions. [AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4].

Since it was first placed on the list in June 2018, Islamabad has been facing possible blacklisting, which could lead to economic sanctions from institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Still, an entry in the list for the third time since 2008 is expected to take a toll on trade and investment: Islamabad-based research advisory Tabadlab estimates that Pakistan would sustain about $38 billion in economic losses due to FATF's decision to keep the country on its grey list. [Hindustan Times]

Chinese cyber-attacks may have caused massive power outage in Mumbai last year

(lm) On October 12 last year, a grip failure had triggered Mumbai’s first major blackout in more than two years, causing chaos at hospitals and leading to the stoppage of its arterial suburban train network. Now, a study by Recorded Future, a US company monitoring state-sponsored cyber activities, lends further credence to the idea that the massive power outage may have been connected to the deadly brawl in the Galwan Valley four months earlier [see AiR No. 24, June/2020, 3]. [The Times of India] [New York Times]

Specifically, the US internet security firm found that Red Echo, a hacking group affiliated with the Chinese government had been repeatedly targeted a dozen critical nodes across the Indian power generation and transmission infrastructure to possibly coerce New Delhi on the border issue. However, Recorded Future on March 1 said it could not substantiate a potential link between the cyberattacks and Mumbai’s power outage. [Mint] [South China Morning Post] [Recorded Future]

Meanwhile, US-based cyber intelligence firm Cyfirma said another Chinese state-backed hacking group has in recent weeks targeted the IT systems of Bharat Biotech and the Serum Institute of India (SII), the world’s largest vaccine maker whose coronavirus shots are being used in India’s ‘vaccine diplomacy’ [see AiR No. 5, February/2021, 1]. [Reuters]

China backs India’s hosting of BRICS

(lm) China’s President Xi Jinping may travel to India in the second half of this year to attend the annual summit of the BRICS grouping of five major emerging economies comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Moreover, Beijing on February 22 expressed its support for India hosting this year’s iteration of the summit, adding that it would not be impacted by the border crisis. [The Hindu] [South China Morning Post]

Beijing’s change of heart comes shortly after the two countries had completed the pull-back of troops from the southern and northern shores of Pangong Tso, a glacial lake at 4,242m, and held their tenth round of border talks to assess how the operation was going. [AiR No. 8, February/2021, 4]

Since 2009, the governments of the BRICS states have met annually at formal summits. Russia hosted the most recent 12th summit in November last year, which was held virtually due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Addressing the summit last year, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called terrorism the biggest problem facing the world today, adding that there was a need to ensure that countries that shelter terrorists must also be blamed. Read between the lines, the remarks were a clear nod to China, which has repeatedly shielded Pakistan from international censure for sponsoring cross-border terrorism in India and Afghanistan [see AiR No. 47, November/2020, 4].

With pacts with Maldives and Mauritius, India seeks to offset Chinese influence in Indian Ocean Region

(lm) India and Mauritius have signed a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation and Partnership Agreement (CEPCA) - New Delhi’s first such agreement with an African country – to provide preferential access to several items that cater to market requirements on both sides. Both countries also signed a $100 million Line of Credit agreement to enable the procurement of defense assets from India. [The Hindu]

Both documents were signed on February 22, the first day of India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar two-day visit to Mauritius. During his visit, Jaishankar met with high-ranking Maldivian officials, including the president and prime minister Pravind Jugnauth - both of Indian-origin.

The signing of the CEPCA assumes added significance, coming as it does shortly after India signed a $50 million Line of Credit agreement with the Maldives and agreed to develop and maintain a key naval facility for the Maldivian Coast Guard [see AiR No. 8, February/2021, 4].

There is a good case to believe that both events have to be seen against the larger backdrop of the ‘String of Pearls’ theory on potential Chinese government intentions in the Indian Ocean region (IOR). Specifically, it is built upon the assumption that China is aiming to establish a network of commercial and military assets to support Chinese naval operations along the Sea Lane of Communications (SLOCs), which extend from the Chinese mainland to Port Sudan in the Horn of Africa. [South Asia Monitor]

To counter Chinese influence in the IOR, New Delhi has been stepping up efforts to deepen its sot-power bonds with both the Maldives and Mauritius. Both island nations were among the first countries to receive free consignments of Covishield (the local name for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine developed in the United Kingdom), when India first utilized its vast manufacturing capacity to bolster bilateral ties in January [see AiR No. 5, February/2021, 1]

India's naval footprint in the Indo-Pacific has also been boosted by growing ties with France, which enjoys basing rights in Réunion, an Indian Ocean island in East Africa. Last year, the navies of both countries for the first time conducted joint patrols from the small island nation, signaling New Delhi's intent to expand its footprint in the stretch between the East African coastline and the Strait of Malacca.

Pakistan expresses solidarity with Saudi Arabia in Jamal Khashoggi murder case

(lm) The United States on February 26 released a long-awaited declassified intelligence report on the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, a US-based journalist and critic of Saudi Arabia's government, who was assassinated at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018 by agents of the Saudi government. The report concluded that Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, the son of King Salman and Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, approved the planned assassination. [CNN]

The following day, Pakistan’s foreign ministry released a press statement, expressing its solidarity with Riyadh, saying that Islamabad would recognize the Kingdom’s efforts to bring Khashoggi’s murders to justice. Pakistan’s Special Representative on the Religious Harmony and the Middle East even denied the findings of the report, calling them ‘baseless.’ [Arab News] [Dawn]

While Saudi Arabia is beginning to feel the heat of the new Biden-Harris Administration, changes in US foreign policy also create an opportunity for Pakistan to get its relationship with the Kingdom back on track. In fact, Saudi Arabia recently extended cash support worth $2 billion to Islamabad, lending further credence to the argument that both sides are keen to put the brakes on further deterioration their bilateral relations [see AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2].

Tensions simmer at volatile Iran-Pakistan border

(lm) Repeated flare-ups along the border which demarcates Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan Province from Pakistan’s Balochistan province in recent weeks have exacerbated tensions between the two countries, threatening to further destabilase an already volatile region. Tehran is currently investigating a shooting at the border that left at least two dead and six wounded. [Al Jazeera]

According to local rights activists, members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps blocked the road that residents use to transport fuel to Pakistan, and opened fire at those attempting to open the road. The incident, which occurred on February 22, led to protests that spread from the city of Saravan to other areas in Sistan and Baluchestan Province, including the capital, Zahedan. The deputy governor of the Sistan and Baluchestan province also accused Pakistani forces of opening fire at a gathering of fuel smugglers trying to cross back into Iran, killing one and wounding four. [Deutsche Welle, in German] [Human Rights Watch]

The border is frequently used by minority Shia Muslims who travel from Pakistan to Iran for religious pilgrimages. But the border has also long been the entry point for the ethnic Baluch population engaged in unlawful cross-border commerce that authorities have struggled to crack down on for decades. Moreover, Tehran has long been accusing Islamabad of not acting against militant groups and Baloch separatists, notably Jaish-al-Adl, a Salafi jihadist militant organization that operates mainly in southeastern Iran - a claim that Pakistan denies. [Arab News]

Pakistan has set aside nearly $20 million to fence its 900-kilometer border with Iran; at present, 40 percent of the construction work have been completed, according to Home Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed, who visited the border region earlier this month. [Anadolu Agency]

China to push ahead with Hambantota port project amid reports of Sri Lanka having second thoughts

(lm) Beijing will push forward with a plan to develop Hambantota port, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said during a phone conversation with his Sri Lankan counterparty on February 3, amid reports that Colombo was seeking to renegotiate the deal. Wang also said that both countries would continue to cooperate to turn the Hambantota and Colombo ports into ‘the twin engines’ of Sri Lanka’s industrial development and economic growth. [South China Morning Post 1]

Construction on the project started in 2008, with China providing 85 percent of the funding. After the port incurred heavy losses and couldn’t generate enough revenue to repay the loan Sri Lanka had received to build it, the previous government in 2017 leased the port to China for 99 years. In return, the deal gave the government $1.1 billion that were used to strengthen US dollar reserves and pay short-term foreign debts unrelated to the port [see AiR December/2017, 3].

Since then, the port has been the subject of intense international scrutiny amid accusations Beijing is using ‘debt trap diplomacy’ for geopolitical clout [see AiR No. 41, October/2020, 2]. Hambantota’s location at the southern tip of Sri Lanka - within 10 nautical miles of the main shipping route from Asia to Europe - makes it a key maritime hub on China’s Maritime Silk Road.

President Gotabaya Rajapaksa said he wanted to renegotiate the deal with China soon after he took office in late 2019, but later denied he had such a plan [AiR No. 52, December/2019, 4]. Last September, then, the government mandated the foreign minister to reassess existing bilateral agreements, and to investigate whether they may have a detrimental effect on the local economy [see AiR No. 35, September/2020, 1].

Sri Lanka’s Foreign Minister Dinesh Gunawardena added to the uncertainty over the deal on February 27 saying the 99-year lease of the Hambantota port to China could be extended to 198 years, calling it a ‘mistake’ made by the previous government. The minister, however, did not say whether the government intended to make changes to the agreement. [South China Morning Post 2]

Bangladesh, US agree to jointly address challenges in South Asia and greater Indo-Pacific region

(lm) Bangladesh and the United States have agreed to further strengthen bilateral ties and to jointly address major challenges, including climate change, in South Asia and the greater Indo-Pacific region. The consensus was reached during a phone conversation between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Bangladesh Foreign Minister A.K. Abdul Momen held on February 23. [The Hindu]

Momen is currently on a visit to Washington DC – his first since US President Joe Biden was inaugurated and announced his administration's commitment to pursuing a foreign policy centered on democracy, human rights, and equality with the use of multilateral tools. Apart from the phone conversation with Blinken, which could not be held in-person due to COVID-19 restrictions, Momen delivered two speeches on the Rohingya crisis, met with US Congressmen and gave interviews in response to ‘negative propaganda’ against Bangladesh, especially regarding extrajudicial killings. [The Daily Star]

Earlier this year the US ambassador to Bangladesh ensured Dhaka that the Biden-Harris Administration would continue to make the Indo-Pacific and South Asia a significant priority. The remarks came after months of coordinated effort by Washington to entice Dhaka into closer embrace as a key Indo-Pacific partner to counter China’s growing financial and political footprint in the region [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3, AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3].

India donates $20.4 to Taiwanese medical institution

(lm) To consolidate cooperation under Taiwan’s New Southbound Initiative, India has donated $20,4 million to Taipei’s National Research Institute of Chinese Medicine (NRCIM), marking the first time the Indian government has donated to a Taiwanese government institution. [Hindustan Times]

Launched in 2016 under Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, the New Southbound Initiative is a people-centered policy that aims to enhance cooperation and exchange with eighteen primary target countries: 10 in the ASEAN region, six states in South Asia, and Australia and New Zealand.

While relations between New Delhi and Taipei in the past have mostly walked in the shadows of India’s strict adherence to the ‘One China Policy’, since 2014, bilateral engagements have gradually strengthened. At the time, Indian Prime Minister Modi initiated a shift from his country’s ‘Look East Policy’ to the ‘Act East Policy’ placing greater emphasis on regional cooperation. Since then, New Delhi has initiated several initiatives to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), most notably through its ‘Make in India’ initiative, which aim to encourage companies to manufacture in India [see e.g. AiR No. 8, February/2021, 4].

Philippines: Duterte to thank Xi, criticize VFA

(nd) When personally welcoming the donated Sinovac vaccines by the Chinese government, President Rodrigo Duterte said he would like to travel to China and to thank Chinese President Xi Jinping for the donation of 600,000 doses. [Manila Bulletin 1]

In the same conference, Duterte said the renewing of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the US would put the Philippines between two armed forces, in case the US stored armaments in the country. Last year, Duterte unilaterally terminated the VFA, which was later withdrawn. Last month, Duterte implied the US should pay if it wants to have American bases in the Philippines. In light of the continuously rising tension in the South China Sea, the US promised to ensure freedom of navigation and the seas in the contested region, which is strategically relevant. [Manila Bulletin 2]

Cambodia: US worried about internet gateway

(nd) Following the announcement of the Cambodian government to set up a national internet gateway [See also AiR No. 7, February/2021, 3], the US voiced concerns over the freedom of expression on the internet. Critics said the gateway will enable authorities to further surveil and censor internet users in the country. The sub-decree was signed by Prime Minister Hun Sen February 16. It will require internet service providers to reroute their services through a National Internet Gateway (NIG) within the next 12 months. While the government argues, the move will boost Cambodia’s information technology infrastructure, rights groups stated the government was aiming at setting up internet regulations similar to China’s domestic firewall. [Voice of America]

Laos: Thai court to reject appeal concerning Pak Beng dam

(py) A Thai court denied to hear an appeal on a case concerning Laos's Pak Beng dam project. In 2017, two Mekong resident groups filed a petition to retract an environmental assessment performed by Thai agencies. Meanwhile, Laos' government issued a decree, which requires all hydropower operators to inform authorities whenever dam reservoirs reach maximum storage or when river levels downstream fall to a critical level. [Voice of America] [Benar News] 

The Pak Beng Dam project, developed by Chinese Datang Overseas Investment Co., Ltd, is one of several Chinese-related developments and business projects in Laos that has triggered a Chinese language education boom. In 2018, Chinese investments accounted for 79 percent of all Foreign Direct Investment in Laos. [Radio Free Asia]

Malaysia: Burmese detainees deported despite court ban

Despite a last-minute court order to postpone to ship’s departure, Malaysia still deported more than 1,000 Myanmar detainees. The US and UN had criticized the plan, and rights groups said there were asylum seekers among the detainees. The temporary motion brought by activists was affirmed hours before the scheduled deportation. There was no comment given, also not why the number of 1,086 deported was lower than the 1,200 detainees earlier. Rights groups argued that minor groups facing prosecution in Myanmar were among the detainees. The UN refugee agency was not granted access to the migrants and could not determine their status. Malaysia had expressed “serious concern” over the coup, but was later criticized for accepting the offer from the Myanmar junta to send warships to repatriate the detainees, which would present the military favorably. [Asia Times]

A group of international rights stated on Friday that at least two of the deported children had been separated from their asylum-seeking families in Malaysia, along with 17 other unaccompanied children. [Malay Mail]

Human Rights Watch urged the government to immediately investigate in the deportation and order the Immigration Department to grant the UNHCR access to people in detention. [Human Rights Watch]

Chinese diplomatic strategy: Boats and Vaccines 

(py) China and Singapore started a joint navy exercise as part of a 2019 agreement aimed at enhancing the two navies' mutual trust, friendship and at promoting cooperation and the construction of a maritime community. The agreement also entails more high-level dialogues, academic and think tank exchanges and an increase the current bilateral exercise scope. An expert said the reason behind such drills was the weakened defense diplomacy in the region since most military personnel have been allocated to pandemic control. In early February, the US Secretary of State also called on Singapore's foreign minister to emphasize the importance of US-Singapore security and economic relation and the US's intention to strengthen cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. Besides military drills, Beijing seems to be eager to spread its vaccines in the region. China has provided Singapore with Sinovac vaccines even before the authorization from the Health Ministry. Experts said the move might be part of China's vaccine diplomacy to showcase the world its capabilities to produce vaccines that are adopted in the first-world country. [South China Morning Post 1] [South China Morning Post 2]

Announcements

Upcoming Online Events 

3 March 2021 @ 4:00 pm JST, Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Japan     

Labour, Poverty and Social Activism under Covid-19 

The first of two webinars in this new series will give an overview on challenges that Japan faces in employment and social welfare and discuss foresight for social movements together with the frontrunners of social work, especially in the areas of urban poverty and labour issues. Simultaneous interpretation will be provided in Japanese and Indonesian only. Please register by March 1st, 2021, 5pm JST. 

More details are accessible under [SPF]. 

3 March 2021 @ 3:00 pm CET, Clingendael, The Netherlands     

Cattle, Conflict & Commerce 

This webinar presents new research and resources for policymakers to help them adapt their approaches to security, local governance, climate resilience, and agricultural development in the Sudano-Sahel region to the account for pastoralist communities.

Visit [Clingendael] for more information. 

3-5 March 2021, Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance, Switzerland

Cyber Resilience and Cybersecurity Capacity Building in the Western Balkans

The conference will gather key cybersecurity policymakers in the Western Balkans, the institutions in charge of cybersecurity incident response and prevention, representatives of EU institutions, international and regional organisations, experts, academics, and private sector representatives to present achievements of Western Balkan economies in enhancing their cybersecurity governance, discuss the challenges and opportunities, and how to address them with EU, UK, and other donors’ support. 

If you are interested in this conference, please visit [DCAF]. 

04 March 2021 @ 1:00 pm AEDT, Lowy Institute, Australia    

Women in the era of Covid-19 

As International Women’s Day 2021 is approaching one year into the pandemic, this webinar asks: How has the pandemic affected women across the world, including in their employment prospects, caretaker responsibilities, the rate of domestic violence, their access to education, and mental health? It also evaluates if and how successful approaches to the pandemic can be attributed to female leaders. 

If you wish to participate in this event, please visit [Lowy Institute] for more information. 

04 March 2021 @ 3:00 pm JST, Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Japan  

The Quad and ASEAN: The Way Forward

This is part 3 of a joint webinar series between the SPF, NUS and ISAS. The panel discussion will focus on the interaction between the Quad and ASEAN as two regional institutions in the Indo-Pacific and how their interaction can provide a meaningful way forward to address some of the pressing questions of economic interdependence, maritime stability, and rule of law in the region.

Please follow [SPF] for more information and registration. 

04 March 2021 @ 3:00 pm CET, Clingendael, The Netherlands 

Adapt to defend: The security dimension of climate change 

This webinar co-organized with the Planetary Security Initiative and the British Embassy in the Netherlands will discuss how the military can contribute more to reducing security risks related to climate change. Topics include climate change as a security risk and in the Caribbean, implications for the defence sector, and possibilities of the COP26.

For more information, please visit [Clingendael].  

4 March 2021 @ 2:00 pm CET, Italian Institute for International Political Studies, Italy     

Asia & Europe Initiative – A Pivotal Moment for EU-Asia Relations After Covid-19? 

Considering that Asia is home to heavy flows of trade as well as political and security challenges, this webinar will evaluate new roles of traditional actors such as the US and the EU in Asia after the pandemic. In particular, it asks: Is there any room for coordination between traditional regional powers after Covid- 19? Is the EU ready and equipped with the instruments and the political will to assign the necessary resources and political capital to increase its engagement in Asia?

For registration and more details, please visit [IPSI]. 

4 March 2021 @ 10:00 am EST, Hudson Institute, USA 

Transatlantic Approaches: Europe in an Age of Sino-American Competition 

This webinar, which is co-organized by the Hudson Institute and the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, will discuss Sino-European relations and the prospects for transatlantic cooperation on key challenges in relation to China as the US Biden administration is setting out a new foreign policy agenda and Europe is pursuing its own commercial interest regarding China. 

For more information, see [Hudson Institute]. 

4 March 2021 @ 8:30 -9:45 am EST, Stimson, USA

European Perspectives on Taking Forward the UN75 Declaration: From Reflection to Innovation & Action 

This event will debate on the necessary efforts for translating the momentum generated in 2020 into tangible actions for reinvigorating and strengthening the United Nations. While maintaining a global outlook, it will consider Europe’s role and potential in mobilizing capabilities, ideas and networks needed to advance our common agenda for a UN fit for the future. 

For more information see, [Stimson]

4 March 2021 @ 9:00 - 10:15 CET, GLOBSEC, Slovakia

Securing the Neighborhood: Enlargement, Partnership, Investment, and Values 

This online discussion with Members of the European Parliament from Central and Eastern Europe will present the current state of play related to the EU’s neighborhood policies/strategy vis-à-vis the perspectives from CEE. The discussion will also touch upon enlargement, investment, European values and other partnership tools.

For more information see, [GLOBSEC].

4 March 2021 @ 9:00 - 10:00 am EST, The German Marshall Fund of the United State, USA

A Partnership to Endure: What Next For the Transatlantic Relationship? 

This event will discuss the future of transatlantic relations under President Biden and take a closer look at the issues that will shape the partnership.

Please register here: [GMF]

5 March 2021 @ 15:00 - 16:00 pm GMT, International Institute for Strategic Studies, UK

Can Europe defend itself? 

This online debate will elaborate on the thesis that European NATO allies, without US help, would be hard-pressed to repel and reverse, with conventional forces, Russia’s conquest of Lithuania and part of Poland.  

Please register here: [IISS]

5 March 2021 @ 12:00 pm EST, Hudson Institute, USA  

Competing with China through Budget Agility 

Although agility is seen as crucial to succeeding in long-term competition, rigid budgetary practices by the Department of Defense make this strategy difficult. Resource allocation, meanwhile, is considered more adaptable than US government processes in some areas. Therefore, this virtual panel will discuss the influence of resource allocation over Sino-US competition. 

If you wish to join this event, please follow [Hudson Institute] for more information. 

5 March 2021 @ 5:00 pm JST, Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Japan 

Domestic Violence and Child Abuse: Rehabilitation for Perpetrators-Intervention Programs and Institutional Design in East Asia 

This pre-event for the 14th UN Congress on Crime Prevention and Criminal Justice (Kyoto Congress) invites government officials, experts, and practitioners from across East Asia to share their experiences and to discuss challenges in the rehabilitation of offenders, especially in relation to the Covid-19 pandemic. They will also look at desired institutional designs and governmental policy to support long-term rehabilitation efforts.  

For more information, please visit [SPF]. 

8 March 2021 @ 2:15 - 3:45 pm ET, The Dialogue, USA

Elections and Institutional Crisis in El Salvador 

This event will discuss the impact of recent elections on democratic governance, the prospects for legislation of the International Commission Against Impunity in El Salvador, and the approach of the international community toward El Salvador under the Biden Administration.

For more information see, [The Dialogue].

9 March 2021 @ 12:00 - 12:45 pm ET, The Heritage Foundation, USA

A First Look at Biden’s Energy and Climate Policies 

This event will discuss critical issues of President Biden's commitment to energy and climate and offer proactive, market-oriented policy reforms that could benefit America's environment and economy.

Please register here: [Heritage]

9 March 2021 @ 14:00 - 14:45 pm GMT + 1,  Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, Belgium

Building a Gender Equality Legacy from the von der Leyen Commission 

This event will discuss how the von der Leyen Commission can leave a lasting gender equality legacy.

For more information see, [Martens].

9 March 2021 @ 13:0 - 14:30 UTC, Diplomacy, Switzerland

Report launch: 'Sustainable Capacity Building: Internet Governance in Africa’ 

How is Africa building capacities for internet governance (IG) and digital policy? What are its main initiatives? What are the strengths and weaknesses of Africa's digital capacity building? What are the main opportunities and threats for building IG capacities in Africa? Find answers to these question at this this report launch.

Please register here: [Diplo]

09 March 2021 @ 2:00 pm CET, Bruegel, Belgium  

A New Carbon Pricing Paradigm for the Path to Net Zero 

This presentation and ensuing panel discussion ask: Which role carbon pricing could and should play in the future policy mix? Should carbon pricing remain a backstop that ensures targets are met  via other technological change policies or should it become a centerpiece in the EU’s ambitious climate targets? 

Please visit [Bruegel] for more information. 

10 March 2021 @ 1:00 pm CET, Egmont Institute, Belgium   

Crossing Borders, crossing paths: Tools for preventing conflicts over transhumance in the Sudano-Sahel 

This interactive presentation and discussion of a new guide for funding agencies, diplomatic staff, and practitioners, will try to take a more interrelated perspective  on conflicts between famers and migration cattle herders as well as transnational trade between African communities. 

For more information, see [Egmont Institute]. 

11 March 2021 @ 9:15 am CET, European Council on Foreign Relations, France  

European Security Cooperation with Eastern Neighbourhood and Western Balkans

As the European Union has tried to become a more ambitious geopolitical actor in recent years, this event will discuss ideas and policy recommendations by ECFR fellows on the security compact, and try to extend these ideas to the Western Balkans, focussing first on security cooperation with Eastern Partnership countries and secondly on Western Balkans countries. 

Please visit [ECFR] for more information and mandatory registration. 

11 March 2021 @ 2:00 pm ET, Center for New American Security, United States

Virtual Book Discussion: The Hardest Place: The American Military Adrift in Afghanistan’s Tech Valley 

In this webinar, military affairs reporter Wesley Morgan will discuss his book and its central themes, capturing the culture and reality of the war and the snowballing American missteps in the war. Building on reporting trips, interviews, and documentary research, he concludes that a status quo was created that could potentially last forever as the military and intelligence agencies continually look for new targets. 

If you wish to join this discussion, please visit [CNAS]. 

11 March 2021 @ 2:00 pm PHST, Phillipe Institute for Development Studies, Philippines  

Digital Platforms: Implications for the Philippines and Developing Asia 

In collaboration with the Asian Development Bank, this webinar will evaluate the increasing use and adoption of digital technology and its impacts on the lives of people, considering benefits and risks of the digital transformation as well as ways to ensure financial inclusion in the digital economy. Also, Dr. Jose Ramon Albert will present his paper “Towards Measuring the Platform Economy: Concepts, Indicators, and Issues”.

For more information, visit [PIDS]. 

11 March 2021 @ 16:00 - 17:30 pm GMT + 1, Danish Institute for International Studies, Denmark

Does more information save migrants’ lives? 

This event will discuss how West African men and women utilize and select available information when planning their journeys to North Africa and Europe.

Please register here: [DIIS]

12 March 2021 @ 4:30 pm EST, Center for South Asian Studies, United States 

The Price of Acceptability: On South Asian Inclusion and Exclusion in the US 

Vivek Bald, scholar of Comparative Media Studies at MIT, will trace out how South Asians have been simultaneously celebrated in US pop culture while only being accepted within narrowly and purposefully drawn limits as immigrants and citizens, building on past and ongoing historical research and assessing key moments in South Asian American history. 

Please visit [UMich] for more information. 

23 March 2021 @ 7:00 - 8:00 pm ET, Institute for Policy Studies, US

The Water Defenders: An SIS-OR Book Event 

This online book discussion will introduce to how to examine our assumptions about progress and prosperity, while providing valuable lessons for those fighting against destructive corporations in the United States and across the world.

For more information, see [IPS].

Recent book releases 

Selina Todd, Snakes and Ladders: The great British social mobility myth, Chatto & Windus, 448 pages, February 11, 2021, reviewed in [The Guardian].

Elliott Currie, A Peculiar Indifference: The Neglected Toll of Violence on Black America, Metropolitan Books, 288 pages, September 15, 2020, reviewed in [New York Times].

Jonathan Cohn, The Ten Year War: Obamacare and the Unfinished Crusade for Universal Coverage, St. Martin's Press, 416 pages, February 23, 2021, with a review in [Foreign Affairs].

Calls

The Coalition of Women in German Conference is seeking for its 2021 conference which will be held on November 4-7, 2021. Deadline for submissions is April 1, 2021. For more details, see [WiG].

The University of Oxford is inviting scholars to submit papers for its online conference on the Second Short Wave of Democratization in Latin America, taking place on June 10-11, 2021. Deadline for submission is March 15, 2021. For about the event at [H- Announce].

The International Center for Not-for-Profit Law is invites proposals for a grant "Promoting Internet Freedoms in Cambodia". Closing date for submission is March 5, 2021. More details are available at [ICNL].

Jobs & positions

The United Nations Children’s Fund is offering a position of Legal Affairs Specialist to research on and provide advice on substantive and procedural matters of administrative law, including management evaluations and disciplinary cases and represent UNICEF in litigation before the UNDT, mediation processes and other formal and informal procedures. Closing date for applications is March 8, 2021. For more details, see [UNICEF].

The Legal department of International Monetary Fund is recruiting a Research Officer to join its Financial and Fiscal Law Unit to carry out legal research and analysis to support the work of the FFL Unit in the fields of financial and fiscal law. Closing date for application is March 4, 2021. For further information, see [IMF].

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