Grasp the pattern, read the trend

Asia in Review

No. 2, January/2021, 2

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

Welcome to this week’s Asia in Review (AiR) updating you on the latest events and developments in domestic politics, constitutional law, human rights, international relations and geopolitics in Asia.

I wish you an informative read.  

With best regards,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in Southeast Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Announcements

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China: Over 50 arrests in largest crackdown on Hong Kong pro-democracy politicians and advocates since national security legislation

(dql) On Wednesday last week, more than 50 people were arrested in citywide police operation in Hong Kong, involving more than 1.000 officers raiding nearly 80 places at dawn. The arrested include pro-democracy politicians and campaigners accused of “subverting state power” under the Hong Kong national security law. Almost all of them were released on bail a day later. [The Guardian] [Deutsche Welle]

The accusation refers to informal primaries organized in July last year by opposition parties to identify which of their candidates had the best chances in the Legislative Council (LegCo) election – then slated for September – and at which candidates announced to boycott government proposals and increase pressure for democratic reforms in case the opposition would win the majority in the election.  More than 600.000 people voted in the primaries, giving the opposition a huge legitimacy boost and increased the opposition’s expectations to win for the first time the majority in the LegCo. Hong Kong's Chief Executive Carrie Lam had warned at that time that the primaries could amount to subversion if the candidates intended to obstruct government policies through their election. 

The election was later postponed, with officials citing concerns over the coronavirus pandemic as the reason for the delay, while opposition politicians called the election postponement a political maneuver of the government to steal their possible election victory. [BBC] [AiR No. 28, July/2020, 2] [AiR No. 31, August/2020, 1]

Observers view the arrests as the latest sign of Beijing’s determination to rein in political opposition and to openly exert a heavier hand in the former British colony. In earlier moves, high-profile democracy activists and advocates were arrested, including Jimmy Lai, media tycoon and founder of the regime-critical tabloid Apple Daily, and Joshua Wong and Agnes Chow, leading figures of the now disbanded political party Demosisto. While the former is standing trial for breaching the national security law, the latter two have already been sentenced to jail for organizing an unlawful anti-government rally in 2019. [AP] [Washington Post] [New York Times] [AiR No. 49, December/2020, 2] 

In a related development, the Hong Kong police has reportedly invoked the national security law to block access to the website HKChronicles which publishes material primarily pertaining to the anti-government protests in 2019. [Reuters]

China: Revised rule books for party members and United Front to strengthen the Chinese Communist Party

(dql) The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) last week released amendments to its regulations on the rights of party members to include new guidelines pertaining to the internal complaint mechanism. Among   others, the new rules will not treat work-related mistakes of cadres as discipline violations and give cadres the right to propose the removal of their leaders in case of proven incompetence. Furthermore, party members – while entitled to report misconduct by other members, including superiors – are not allowed to disseminate such information at will and are not allowed to do so on the internet.

The revision also changes the wording of a clause in article 16 which reads: “A member of the party must not publicly express opinions inconsistent with decisions of the central leadership.” A similar clause in article 12 of the previous 2004 version of the regulations banned the open expression of opinions that are the “contrary” the leadership’s decisions. Insofar, the change from ‘opposite’ to ‘inconsistent’ reflects a more far-reaching curbing of public comments on decisions of the party’s leadership. [Xinhua, in Chinese] [News.12371, in Chinese] [South China Morning Post]

The new regulations come half a year ahead of the centenary of the Chinese Communist Party, which under President Xi Jinping’s “systematic approach to strengthening and reinforcing the organisational resilience of the CCP at all levels” in pursuit of a “Party-dominated modernity” for China has become a “fundamentally different organisation … than it was before, both in terms of the role it plays in society, and the political and ideological expectations that come with membership,” Jude Blanchette argues in [East Asia Forum].

Meanwhile, the CCP has also published a revised set of regulations on the work of the United Front Work Department which call for increased efforts to win “the love for the motherland, the Communist Party and socialism with Chinese characteristics,” among overseas Chinese and to contain at the same time “Taiwan-independence forces” among them. The regulations were approved by the party’s Politburo earlier in November last year. [Yahoo News]

China: Plans for establishing Chinese socialist rule of law under the leadership of the party unveiled 

(dql) The Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has released plans for an overhaul of China’s legal system in the next five years to build “a system of distinctively Chinese socialist rule of law” by 2035 under which “the people’s right to equal participation and development will be fully guaranteed, and the modernization of the nation’s governance system and capabilities will be largely achieved.” 

Reform measures, identified in the blueprint, include the comprehensive implementation of the constitution and the introduction of a complete system of laws which comes along with an efficient system for law enforcement, a rigorous legal supervision system, a strong system of legal guarantee, and a sound system of intra-Party regulations.

The plans also stress the “centralized and unified” leadership of the party as “most fundamental guarantee” for the development of the socialist rule of law. [Sohu, in Chinese]

President Xi Jinping, meanwhile, in a speech at a top-level party meeting – attended by all members of the party’s highest decision-making body, the Politburo Standing Committee, as well as by Vice-President Wang Qishan, known as Xi’s right-hand man – called for confidence, conviction and discipline in the CCP at a critical juncture of history as “the world is currently undergoing a major transformation not seen in the past hundred years.” While Xi expressed his conviction that “time and momentum,” was on China’s side and that the opportunities outweigh the challenges for China, he cautioned that the “entire party must continue to be modest and prudent, struggle hard, mobilize all mobilizable positive factors, unite all strength, handle its matters with full energy, and work with perseverance on carrying out our set objective” of realizing the modernization of socialism with Chinese characteristics. [Xinhua, in Chinese] [South China Morning Post]

China: High-profile corruption cases

(dql) High-profile corruption trials that concluded with a life imprisonment verdict and a capital punishment sentence have again drawn attention to President Xi Jinping’s sweeping anti-corruption campaign which has so far snared over 1.3 million officials from powerful “tigers” to low-ranking “flies” since its launch in 2012. [AiR No. 1, January/2021, 1]

Hu Huaibang, the former chairman of the China Development Bank (CDB), was sentenced to life in prison after he was found guilty of accepting bribes of more than 13.2 million USD between 2009 and 2019 for helping others obtain bank credits, operate their businesses, and secure promotions. [Reuters]

Former chairman of China Huarong Asset Management, one of China’s four largest state-owned bad-debt management companies, Lai Xiaomin was handed a death sentence for bribery totaling 277 million USD over ten years leading up to 2018, the highest amount in more than seven decades since the founding of the People's Republic of China. [CNN]

China: Rights lawyers' suspended, revoked

(dql) A Chinese lawyer has been suspended for a year after posting videos on social media which allegedly showed police torturing witnesses and a defendant, he was representing, to extract confessions. [Yahoo News]

Meanwhile, Chinese judicial authorities have announced to revoke licenses of two lawyers, both having represented two of the 12 Hong Kong fugitives who had been intercepted by the Chinese coast guard while trying to flee to Taiwan in summer last year. Ten of them were sentenced to between seven months and three years in prison for illegal border crossing, while the two youngest were returned to Hong Kong for trial on charges related to anti-government protests last year.

The two lawyers, who are known for their outspoken critic of the Chinese legal process, are accused of “publishing inappropriate speech online,” and “severely damaging the image of the industry," as well as “causing negative impacts on society.” [Daily Mail]

Japan: Coronavirus state of emergency declared for Tokyo and neighboring prefectures

(dql) Amid record numbers of new coronavirus infections and ensuing mounting public pressure and demands among his own health experts, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has declared a state of emergency in the greater Tokyo area. 

Companies are ordered to encourage their staff to work from home and reduce office populations by 70%, while residents of the affected areas are called on to avoid non-essential outings. Restaurants must close by 8 p.m. and sporting events have been instructed to limit the number of visitors to 50% of capacity. Schools, however, will remain open.

The emergency measure will be in place for a month for the time being. [CNN] [The Guardian]

South Korea: President not to consider pardons for convicted predecessors

(dql) The Office of South Korean President Moon Jae-in rejected a report of a newspaper which claimed that the Office is considering ways to grant pardons to former Presidents Park Geun-hye and Lee Myung-bak, the two former presidents jailed for abuses of power and corruption offenses.

The issue surfaced earlier this month after a lawmaker from the ruling Democratic Party, who is tipped as one of the key presidential hopefuls for the election in 2022, publicly announced his intention to ask President Moon Jae-in to pardon his immediate predecessors. [Korea Herald]

Meanwhile, the country’s population is almost evenly divided on this issue. Findings of a survey show that 47.7% of respondents approved an amnesty for the two former presidents, while 48% said they were against such a move. [Korea Bizwire]

Taiwan: KMT continues anti-ractopamine campaign 

(nm) Last week, the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) started to collect signatures in the second stage of its efforts to initiate a referendum against the government’s decision to lift an import ban on pork containing the feed additive ractopamine which became effective at the beginning of the new year. 

After clearing the first hurdle in December, 1.5 percent of eligible voters in the most recent presidential election, or nearly 290,000 people, must sign for the referendum to be held in this second hurdle. The KMT hopes to collect more than 500,000 signatures by the March 21 deadline.

The new policy on imports of ractopamine-fed pork has been heatedly debated in Taiwan ever since it was first announced by President Tsai Ing-wen in August 2020. While the government sees the lift as an opportunity to clear the way for a trade deal with the United States, it is considered a food and health risk by the KMT. [Focus Taiwan] [Taipei Times] 

Taiwan: New passports with bigger ‘Taiwan’ to be launched

(nm) On Monday, Taiwan introduced a newly designed passport in which the word "Taiwan" will be printed in larger lettering and placed in a more prominent position, while the size of the words "Republic of China", Taiwan’s formal designation, will be reduced and re-positioned inside a thin outer circle that surrounds the national emblem.

Unveiled in September last year, the Taiwanese government called the new design an attempt to disassociate Taiwanese from mainland Chinese as Taiwanese have faced travel restrictions amid the pandemic due to confusion over the country’s designation. China had responded to a first draft in September by stating that “no matter what tricks” Taiwanese authorities pulled, Taiwan would remain an “inalienable part of the Chinese territory.” [Reuters] [Focus Taiwan] [The New York Times, $]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

Bangladesh: Government deprives 52 people of their status as members of Mukti Bahini

(lm) Bangladesh`s government has cancelled the freedom fighter certificates of 52 people, following the 70th meeting of the National Freedom Fighters Council. The decision also affected a former army officer, who was involved in the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the founding president of Bangladesh and father of incumbent Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. [bdnews24]

An autonomous Bangladesh government body, the National Freedom Fighters Council was formed to look after the welfare of members of the Mukti Bahini – the so-called freedom fighters – who fought for Bangladesh during the War of Liberation that transformed East Pakistan into Bangladesh in 1971. Civilian fighters and their heirs are entitled to numerous privileges, including honorarium. To this end, the council is also charged with preparing a list of freedom fighters, which is also known as the “Red Book”.

Bangladesh: Court orders halt of demolition of structure carrying memories of anti-British movement

(lm) A High Court issued a status quo order on January 6 to temporarily halt demolition of a historical structure housing the former house of Jatindra Mohan Sengupta, a late 19th century-Indian revolutionary against the British. Previously, a minority rights body had submitted a memorandum to local authorities, urging the government to take necessary steps to protect the complex. [South Asia Monitor] [Dhaka Tribune]

India: Supreme Court allows federal government to build new parliament building

(lm) India's Supreme Court (SC) has given approval for the Central Vista Redevelopment Project, which proposes to reconstruct and repurpose the central administrative area of New Delhi housing government buildings and the prime minister's residence. On January 5, the SC voted in favor of the project by 2:1. The dissenting judge had expressed concern about the lack of public consultation before the project's clearance. [The Guardian] [The Straits Times]

Since the project was announced in 2019, it has faced criticism from civil society groups, environmentalists, and politicians about its lack of transparency and public consultation and high cost in a time of economic crisis. In view of petitions ranging from land use to the environmental impact of the project, the SC last November halted construction but allowed paperwork and other procedures - including a groundbreaking ceremony - to continue. Hence, the ruling marks a win for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who had called the new building a witness to the making of an Atmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant or self-sufficient India) while laying the first stone in December. [The Hindu]

India: Supreme Court threatens to put controversial farm laws on hold

(lm) Expressing its disappointment over the federal government’s handling of the farmers’ protests, India’s Supreme Court (SC) on January 11 said it would order a stay of the implementation of the controversial agricultural laws if the government would fail to do so. The SC also reiterated the need for an independent committee [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]. [The Times of India] [The Hindu]

Previously, the government of Prime Minister Modi and representatives of protesting farmers failed to break the deadlock over the contentious new agriculture laws on January 8 and said they would meet again in a week's time. The same day, in one of the biggest shows of strength since they began a sit-in against deregulation of farm markets more than a month ago [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1], tens of thousands of farmers mostly from the Sikh-dominated northern state of Punjab occupied an expressway on the periphery of New Delhi. [The Straits Times 1] [The Straits Times 2] [New York Times]

The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has held several rounds of talks with the farmers to placate them, offering to pass a law guaranteeing a minimum support price for certain crops like wheat. Protest leaders, however, have rejected the government’s offer, vowing to continue to protest until the new agricultural reform laws are fully repealed [see AiR No. 50, December/2020, 3].

Maldives: Extraordinary session of Parliament scheduled to facilitate local council elections

(lm) The Maldives government has called an extraordinary sitting of Parliament for January 13 to pass necessary amendments that would empower the Election Commission (EC) to hold local council elections amid the state of public emergency. Under the fresh amendments, the EC would also be able to announce dates for elections. [The Edition]

Originally slated for April last year, the polls were postponed indefinitely in last May, after a State of Public Health Emergency was declared in the face of the global COVID-19 pandemic. Shortly thereafter, the Maldives passed the Sunset Act, which allowed the EC to delay the local council elections until early May this year. According to the EC, the local elections could be held before Ramadan (April 13), provided the required amendments are ratified within the month. [Avas]

Nepal: Dissolution of Parliament’s lower house a “political issue”, says Prime Minister Oli

(lm) Addressing an extraordinary session of the upper house of Parliament, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli on January 10 defended his decision to dissolve the lower house, calling the move a “political issue”. The prime minister also resented the Supreme Court’s decision to entertain the petitions challenging the constitutionality of the dissolution [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]. [The Himalayan Times 1]

Preceding Oli’s address to the upper house, protesters took to the streets their support for the prime minister on January 9, demanding five more years for Oli in the upcoming general election. Most of the supporters are members of the Rashtriya Yuva Sangh, a youth wing of the ruling NCP. [South Asia Monitor]

Moreover, the prime minister’s decision to dissolve the lower house of parliament has put the country’s judiciary to the test, with opinions divided over whether the move is constitutional. While may legal observers, including four former chief justices, have called the dissolution outright unconstitutional, Prime Minister Oli and his supporters have been trying to justify the move, saying the constitution would permit such a decision. [The Himalayan Times 2]

Nepal: Chief justice mandatorily chairing Constitutional Bench exposes shortcomings of Constitution

(lm) Legal experts in Nepal currently discussing some fundamental flaws in the Constitution, pondering whether the chief justice of the country’s Supreme Court can sit on the bench that is hearing a case in which he is one of the defendants. What brought the discussion about was a series of actions by Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli that preceded the dissolution of parliament’s lower house.

On December 15, the prime minister had introduced an ordinance on the Constitutional Council Act, enabling the Constitutional Council (CC) – a key agency that appoints officials at various constitutional bodies – to achieve quorum if as few as three of its six members, including the prime minister, attend a meeting [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]. After facing heavy backlash, Prime Minister Oli finally agreed to withdraw the ordinance – only to went back on his words soon thereafter. Since then, three separate petitions have been filed at the Supreme Court challenging the constitutional validity of the recommendations made by the CC. [The Kathmandu Post 1]

This is the crux of the matter: As per the constitutional provisions, the chief justice is also a member of the CC, and, as consequently is named as defendant in one of the petitions. But what is more, in contrast to other members of the Constitutional Bench can recuse himself, the chief justice does not such right. [The Kathmandu Post 2]

Nepal: Dahal-Nepal faction urges Election Commission to stop snap poll preparation

(lm) Factional leaders of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal went to the Election Commission (EC) on January 11, urging the constitutional body to suspend its preparations for the upcoming snap elections, saying the case was sub judice at the Supreme Court [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]. After the decision of Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli to dissolve the lower house of parliament and to call for early elections, the EC published a notice to update the existing voter’s list. [The Himalayan Times 1] [The Kathmandu Post]

Further, the EC amended its rules to recognize the split in the NCP, as previous legal hurdles did not allow the electoral body to recognize a split in a party once general elections had been announced. With the NCP on the verge of a split, the EC can now hear claims and counter claims of the rivaling factions about who should use the original party’s name, flag, and election symbol during the general election. While the electoral body has not given any timeframe to announce its decision, both factions have since been approaching the EC time and again to prove their authenticity [see AiR No. 52, December/2020, 5]. [The Himalayan Times 2]

Nepal: Pro-monarchy protesters clash with police in Kathmandu

(lm) Nepal’s capital Kathmandu on January 11 witnessed clashes between riot police and hundreds of protesters, who were demanding the restoration of the monarchy and a Hindu state. Observing the birth anniversary of Prithivi Narayan Shah, the first monarch of Kingdom of Nepal, royalist groups clashed with security forces when they tried to access the country’s administrative complex in the capital. Police used batons to beat the protesters, who responded by throwing rocks and sticks. [Al Jazeera] [The Kathmandu Post] [The Himalayan Times]

Organized by the Hindu nationalist Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), Monday’s protests were the latest in a series of similar pro-monarchy demonstrations that started on a small scale in June last year [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1].

Pakistan: Pakistan observes annual Right to Self-determination of Kashmiris Day

(lm) Rallies and seminars were held across Pakistan and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir to mark the annual Right to Self-determination of Kashmiris Day on January 5. On this day in 1949, the United Nations committed that the Jammu and Kashmir dispute would be decided through a free and fair plebiscite. The same day, the Senate unanimously passed a resolution condemning the grave human rights violations in occupied Kashmir. [Anadolu Agency]

Addressing the upper house of parliament, Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi reaffirmed Islamabad’s support to the pro-freedom struggle in Indian-administered Kashmir, saying Pakistan was part of the Kashmiris’ “movement for self-determination." Qureshi also said Islamabad expects an active United States role vis-à-vis the resolution of the long-standing dispute. [Profit Pakistan]

Winding up the Senate session, the foreign minister the next day invited lawmakers from three mainstream opposition parties – the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) and Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI-F) – for talks to chalk out a comprehensive action plan aimed at resolution of the lingering Kashmir dispute. [Dawn]

Pakistan: Shia Hazara community ends protest as Prime Minister Khan visits Quetta

(lm) Protests over the killing of 11 Shi'ite Hazara miners in the city of Quetta were finally called off on January 9, after the provincial government of Balochistan and representatives of the Hazara community reached an agreement. Tens of thousands gathered for the burial of the 11 coalminers, who were killed by Islamic State militants earlier this month [see AiR No. 1, January/2021, 1]. [The Straits Times] [Arab News]

Accompanied by Interior Minister Sheikh Rasheed Ahmad and Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa, Prime Minister Imran Khan arrived in Quetta the following day to meet with the families of the deceased. Before then, the protests had further spread to other cities of the country, including the southern metropolis of Karachi, with protesters demanding the dissolution of the provincial government of Balochistan and strong action by Islamabad to find and punish the culprits. The prime minister had also come under fire for saying he would not let protesters blackmail him into coming to Quetta. [Dawn 1] [Dawn 2] [The EurAsian Times] [Reuters]

Pakistan: Anti-terrorism court sentences three to death for sharing blasphemous content on social media

(lm) An anti-terrorism court (ATC) has sentenced to death three men for social media posts deemed blasphemous. A fourth accused, a college professor, was sentenced to 10 years imprisonment for a “blasphemous” lecture he had delivered in the classroom. The convicted people can appeal in two higher courts to overturn their conviction or ask for mercy from the president. [Al Jazeera] [Dawn]

Blasphemy is an extremely sensitive subject in Pakistan, where insulting the Prophet Muhammad carries the death penalty. Even mere accusations of blasphemy have incited mass protests and mob lynching even before their trials were concluded in courts [see e.g., AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4].

Pakistan: Leader of group linked to 2008 Mumbai attacks sentenced to five years in jail for terror financing

An anti-terrorism court sentenced Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, leader of the Islamist terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), to five years imprisonment and a fine over a charges of terrorism financing. Earlier this month, Lakhvi was arrested in the eastern city of Lahore where he was running a medical dispensary that he allegedly used to collect funds for militant activities [see AiR No. 1, January/2021, 1]. [Dawn]

Sri Lanka: Government to continue cremating COVID-19 victims, despite opposition from religious minorities

(lm) The Sri Lankan government will continue to cremate those dying from COVID-19 as per the recommendation by an experts panel appointed last November [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4], the country’s health minister said on January 7, despite strong opposition from the minority Muslim community. [Outlook India]

Ignoring the World Health Organization’s (WHO) guidelines which permit both burials and cremations, Buddhist-majority Sri Lanka amended its rules on burials and cremations last April, making cremations of COVID-19 victims mandatory [see AiR No. 20, May/2020, 3]. Human and religious rights groups, as well as local Muslim associations have since raised concerns over the policy, saying authorities use it to purposely hurt the country’s Muslim and Christian minorities.

Sri Lanka: Authorities promise to rebuild war memorial, just two days after demolishing it

(lm) Sri Lankan authorities decided to rebuild a war memorial commemorating the Mullivaikkal massacre, just two days after they had ordered its demolition. The decision to bulldoze the statue had sparked outrage among locals, students, and politicians, who gathered late on January 9, protesting the demolition of the war memorial. [EconomyNext] [The Hindu]

During the closing stages of the Sri Lankan Civil War, the government under then-President Mahinda Rajapaksa between January and May 2009 in phases designated three No Fire Zones (NFZs) within territory controlled by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Each of these NFZs was smaller than the previous, and further east towards the coast as the LTTE retreated further and further back, ultimately ending in a tiny strip of land in Mullivaikkal, a small village at the country’s northeastern coast. Even though the government had assured it would not fire in government-declared NFZs, military troops heavily shelled the area, including hospitals, UN centers and Red Cross ships, while the LTTE held hostage much of the civilian population for cover, and enforced this by shooting escaping Tamil civilians. [The Print]

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Cambodia: Opposition defendant will not be issued travel documents

(nd) According to a government spokesperson, opposition officials in self-imposed exile will not be issued passports or visa and will have to find “their own way” to enter Cambodia to face charges of incitement and treason, because they organized a coup d’état to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Hun Sen. 

The comments suggest a presumption of guilt of the CNRP exiles, which is why the international community already called on the government it has to grant the right to fair trial to the defendants. According to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, the right to a fair trial combines many fundamental rights, including the right to a court, the right to a public trial, the right to equality, the right to an independent and impartial trial, the right to an expedited trial, and the right to presumption of innocence.

Phnom Penh Municipal Court in November summoned at least 113 individuals with connections to the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) facing charges of conspiracy and incitement. In September 2017, the arrest of CNRP President Kem Sokha for allegedly plotting to overthrow the government, was followed by the party’s dissolution by the Supreme Court and a wider crackdown on the opposition, NGOs, and the independent media, which enabled the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) to win all 125 seats in the July 2018 general election. [Radio Free Asia]

Indonesia: Preliminary report of probe in FPI member killing

(nd) Following the killing of six members of the politically influential Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) members by police officers last December, a report of the Indonesian Human Rights Commission (Komnas HAM) found that only two were gunned down during an exchange of fire, but four others were detained and later shot, reinforcing claims of “extra-judicial killings” made earlier by the FPI. Police, however, argued, that one of the four detainees tried to seize an officer’s weapon during a change of vehicle which triggered a scuffle that ended in the shooting at close range. 

As nominal head of the National Police, president Joko Widodo now has to decide whether there will be a full-scale investigation in the case. Since there are still gaps in the report, it is expected that Komnas HAM will be tasked with forming an independent team of investigators. [Asia Times]

Indonesia: Challenges for the dependency on coal industry

(nd) As a repercussion of Covid-19, there was a lower demand for fossil fuels, including coal, consumption of which is expected to fall by 8% this year. Coal is Indonesia’s country’s largest export commodity, and has seen demand drops both in export and domestic markets, fueling existing concerns around overcapacity.

As a solution to at least create local demand, the government aims to gasify coal, to turn solid coal into the liquid fuels methanol and dimethyl ether (DME) that can replace imported liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). Environmental and climate issues remain with this coal-based technology, which questions the project’s economic viability. Despite this criticism, the project is already far along, with an estimated commencement date of 2023/2024.

Most importantly, the passage of the highly controversial omnibus bill will make extraction more favorable by lowering requirements for environmental impact assessments, which will save costs. In order to fulfill the commitment to the Paris agreement, the discussion of new renewable energy focuses on coal gasification and nuclear, and not on the development of wind and solar.

Analysts warn that by depending even more on coal extraction, Indonesia could get stuck economically without a diversified energy portfolio. The decrease in coal demand shall be used as a moment to exit toward a more decentralized, sustainable energy future. Not only neighboring countries India, China, Vietnam, or Thailand shifted toward renewables. [The News Lens]

Also, with respect to oil and gas, the industry’s big players, like Chevron and perhaps ExxonMobil, as well as major oil companies BP, Royal Dutch Shell and Total, heading for such a shift and scaled back investment in traditional oil and gas projects. 

Of Indonesia’s 128 geological basins, half have been explored, but foreign investment is at its lowest-ever point. According to experts, its best bets is deep-water exploration in prospective areas like offshore northern Sumatra, northern Papua and the Makassar Strait. In the Andaman Sea, northwest of Aceh, Abu Dhabi-based Mubadala Petroleum, Spain’s Repsol, BP and Malaysian state oil company Petronas invested in four adjacent blocks all under active exploration at depths of 1,000-1,500 meters. 

For such projects, international expertise and funding was necessary, which is hindered by risk-averse domestic and state-owned companies and a bureaucracy, aiming at nationalizing the resources, compelling firms to buy overpriced Indonesian goods and service. Timing of approval of an operation is another issue for investors. According to analysts, Indonesia shall therefore implement incentives and measures to make such operation more attractive, otherwise its bargaining power towards foreign investors will increasingly weaken. [Asia Times]

Laos: Collaboration to fight Wildlife Trafficking

(py) A five-year Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the Ministry of Agriculture and the World-Wide Fund for Nature Laos Office (WWF-Laos) was signed, including provisions to guarantee that authorities and taskforces have the required means to perform investigations into wildlife crimes, as well as training for law enforcement agencies. This new MoU symbolizes a long-term commitment by WWF to help the Laotian government to actualize Prime Minister Order No. 5 (PMO5) and meet its international responsibility under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). The Greater Mekong region has become more and more notorious for its increasing cases of wildlife crimes. [The Laotian Times] [WWF]

Malaysia: Declaration of emergency state  

(nd) Malaysia’s King Sultan Abdullah Sultan Ahmad Shah consented to the government of Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s declaration of a nationwide state of emergency to fight a recent spike in COvid-19 cases overwhelming hospitals. It will last until August or as long as it takes to regain control. Malaysia’s daily cases per million are now among the highest in the region, with a seven-day average of 74.66 per million as of Sunday.

Critics labelled it as a move by an unstable government to cling to power, since the emergency avoids the looming snap elections amid tries to challenge the government by opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim. Muhyiddin tried and failed to convince the king for a similar declaration of emergency in October during the most recent challenge by Anwar. Also, United Malays National Organization (UMNO), which disposes of the largest seat number in Muhyiddin’s coalition, urged him to call a general election by the end of March, threatening to withdraw their support. Since the emergency move will grant the authorities significantly more powers, its declaration prompted concerns over civil liberties.

Ever since March 2020, Malaysia has seen political turmoil after the collapse of Mahathir Mohammed’s administration, which brought Muhyiddin to power without an election. [Asia Times] [Nikkei Asia]

Malaysia: Party applications rejected

(nd) An application to register a new political party, the Parti Pejuang Tanah Air (Pejuang) led by former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, has been rejected by the Registrar of Society (ROS) due to formal reasons. Likewise, the application by the Malaysia United Democratic Alliance (MUDA) led by former Minister of Youth and Sports Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman was rejected. [Channel Asia News]

Malaysia: Looming split of Umno and Bersatu

(nd) The United Malays National Organisation (Umno), central ally of Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin and the country’s largest political party, will be discussing cutting ties with Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) by the end of January, which could force snap elections. Since Umno provides the largest number of MPs to Muhyiddin’s razor-thin majority, it has a strong bargaining position towards the Prime Minister. The plan to ultimately leave Muhyiddin’s Perikatan Nasional coalition, however, is not fully supported by the Supreme Council members. Analysts see the announcement of this as a way to push Muhyiddin to provide more government position to Umno members, as well as potentially dropping ongoing charges against several Umno leaders, since they are backing his new government, while Pakatan Harapan leaders are plotting to oust Muhyiddin. [South China Morning Post]

Myanmar: Negotiations for make-up elections in Rakhine and Shan state

(nd) Despite the temporary ceasefire between the military and the rebel Arakan Army (AA), a government spokesman said the possibility to hold the elections in parts of Rakhine state was dependent on a solid security guarantee to the Union Election Commission (UEC). The military said elections should be held February 1 in parts of Rakhine and Shan states where voting had been cancelled before the November 8 general elections for security reasons. At the moment, the government and the UEC are still negotiating with the AA, which already stated that it will guarantee security during voting. At the same time, the government is negotiating with members of the Northern Alliance including the AA, Kachin Independence Army, Ta’ang National Liberation Army, and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and has sent a draft bilateral cease-fire agreement containing a security guarantee to the Northern Alliance to hold make-up elections. [Radio Free Asia]

Myanmar: Tatmadaw and USDP challenging the electoral result

(nd) The Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) and its proxy, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) went ahead to challenge the National League for Democracy’s (NLD) landslide victory claiming electoral fraud. Following their probe, the military found nearly 4 million voter-list irregularities, possibly pointing to fraud in 179 townships. The election commissioners rejected the accusations as “exaggerated” and “absurd”. The military plans to call a special session before the current legislative term ends, which they can do according to Article 84 of the 2008 Constitution, since they dispose of a guaranteed quarter of the parliamentary seats. Also, the USDP asked the Supreme Court to issue a writ over the UEC chairman and commissioners over electoral misconduct, which will be heard on January 29. Observers, however, calculate the success of these moves rather unlikely.

The general election on November 8 provided the NLD with a supermajority of 920 seats (or 82.3 percent of contested seats) the Union, state and regional legislatures. [Irrawaddy]

Myanmar: Economic repercussions of the junta rule

(nd) The ongoing transition from the 2010 dissolved junta’s military rule to democracy still leaves huge political and economic power with the Burmese military (Tatmadaw), who are reserved a quarter of parliamentary seats. The Tatmadaw is also engaged economically, which is why, despite the lift of official sanctions, United Nations (UN) human rights advocates warned against doing business with the Tatmadaw due to its human rights atrocities.

Reportedly, this warning is not taken seriously internationally, with two British banks, HSBC and Standard Chartered, having lent US$60 million to a Vietnamese company building the mobile network Mytel in Myanmar, of which the Tatmadaw-controlled Myanmar Economic Corporation owns 28%. Also, Israeli technology company, Gilat Satellite Networks, has been doing business with Mytel. Sometimes indirectly, there is investment in a subsidiary of a country, which is doing business with the Myanmar Economic Corporation, which is the case for the Australian Future Fund.

The UN’s warning is due to the Tatmadaw’s operation in 2016 against the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army, a separatist Islamist insurgency in the western state of Rakhine, which is one-third Muslim. A 2017 fact finding commission appointed by the United Nations Human Rights Council investigated the allegations of atrocities and a year later concluded the killing of thousands of Rohingya civilians, forced disappearances and mass gang rapes, and called to trial high-ranking officers for genocide.

Another year later, the mission scrutinized the Tatmadaw’s economic interests, mainly focused on the Myanmar Economic Corporation (MEC) and another conglomerate, Myanmar Economic Holding Ltd (MEHL), which have profited from near-monopoly control over many activities and industries under the junta. While they became public companies in 2016, their profits still mainly go to the Tatmadaw. While the report discouraged economic involvement in companies with ties to the military, it still encouraged general investment in Myanmar. Until 2011, the US, EU and Australia imposed rather broad trade and diplomatic sanctions. [Asia Times]

Philippines: President opposes probe into vaccination to bodyguards

(nd) Following attempts to probe into how Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s bodyguards received shots of a Chinese-developed coronavirus vaccine in September and October, while no vaccine has been officially approved to date, the President angrily opposed such investigations, telling members of the elite bodyguard to “stay put in the barracks” and ignore summons to appear before a Senate inquiry into the matter. He reiterated that their action was justified, trying to keep the President safe. Following Duterte’s comments, the military announced it cancelled its own investigation into the matter. The Congress can still launch investigations or summon officials. The vaccine doses were developed by Sinopharm, a Chinese state-owned drug maker. [See also AiR No. 1, January/2021, 1] [Radio Free Asia]

Philippines: Probe into killing by off-duty cop

(nd) Following the shooting of a mother and son by a police officer off duty in December, lawmakers in both the House of Representatives and the Senate called for probes into the case of police brutality and possibly a police reform bill. Reform suggestions include the requirements for entering the police force shall be raised, covering psychological exams and training in the de-escalation process. Also, policemen shall have a deeper knowledge of the legal elements of an offence to avoid illegal acts by officers. To further deter such action, prosecution of officers shall be more effective and litigated outside the police power. Over this case, lawmakers mentioned a need to reinstitute capital punishment. [The News Lens]

Philippines: President to push for Charter amendment

(nd) President Rodrigo Duterte asked lawmakers to amend the 1987 Constitution to change the party-list system to protect it from being abused by those linked to communist rebels and groups who according to the President are calling for a “fall of the government”. Senate President Vicente Sotto III said in an interview that Duterte wanted to go after leftist party-list groups in the House Makabayan bloc, which he has long accused of acting as front for the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), its armed wing New People's Army (NPA), and its political arm National Democratic Front (NDF).

According to a House insider, during a meeting in December Duterte instructed the Senate President to get rid of the party-list system altogether, warning that he otherwise will have to resort to the military to fight the groups. [Rappler]

Singapore: Bill to make laws easier to understand passed

(py) The Parliament has passed the Statute law Reform Bill, which foresees a greater use of simplified language in legislation. The Law Revision Commissioners are granted the power to make editorial changes to shape legislation in accordance with modern drafting practices without altering their meaning. Additionally, in order to deal with the ongoing pandemic, the law extends the definition of “Parliament” to include not only Parliament House but any place appointed by the President. [The Strait Times]

Singapore: New weapon law passed

(py) A new law was passed to regulate guns, explosives and weapons (GEW) and toughen penalties for unauthorized possession. The law requires class licensing for ornamental weapons such as daggers and swords, and also criminalizes unauthorized possession of 3D digital blueprints of guns and gun parts with designs taken from the interne as well as armed drones. 

Under the new law, the Minister of the Home Affairs has the power to issue security directions in certain situations, for example a situation which requires a more expedient response than modifying licensing conditions allows, such as if there is imminent threat to life or property. [The Strait Times]

Thailand: Tracking app highly recommended

(nd) In an effort to curb the recent hike in Covid-19 cases, five provinces must use the MorChana position-tracking app, stipulated under regulation number 17 of the executive decree for public administration in emergency situations. Consequently, the intentional concealing of information by not using the app could then be seen as obstructing this effort, which foresees a maximum penalty of two years in prison and/or fine of 40,000 baht. The threat, however, was abandoned shortly after the announcement, which prompted an outcry from civil rights and privacy activists. The app requires the user to allow access to GPS locations, camera, microphone, photo gallery, and WIFI usage data, demonstrating, according to activists, how broad the powers of the Emergency Decree can be interpreted. [Bangkok Post] [Khaosod]

Thailand: No-confidence vote initiation planned

(nd) On January 27 Thailand’s largest opposition party, Pheu Thai, plans to initiate the process for a no-confidence debate against Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha and his government due to the “the government’s mismanagement” of its Covid-19 response, causing “damage to the country”.  As a result of the recent Covid-19 outbreak, the Thai economy could lose 300 billion baht ($10 billion) in the first quarter, with the consumer confidence index dropping for the first time in three months to 50.1 in December. A record low of 39.2 was reached last April during the first wave of the pandemic.

Depending on either a hard or soft lockdown as response, the economy might contract by 11.3% respectively 4%. Prayuth and five other ministers survived a no-confidence vote last year after weeks of debates. [Chiangrai Times]

Thailand: Enforcement of lese majeste law continues

(nd) In conjunction with the march to the German Embassy Bangkok on October 26 to inquire in King Maha Vajiralongkorn’s legal status in Germany, a group of activists answered their summons over complains filed under the “Lese Majeste” law, which are now increasingly used against pro-democracy protesters. The law foresees a prison sentence of up to 15 years and was not used since 2018.

Once a taboo, the pro-democracy protesters have expanded their demands for a constitutional reform to seeking the resignation of the military-backed government of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha and curbing of King’s powers. A total of 41 people have now been charged under Article 112. The government stated protesters had “stirred up hatred” with divisive proposals containing inaccurate information, which was multiplied by the use of social media. [Reuters]

Additionally, officials started charging protesters for posting and providers for hosting content online, which might violate Article 112, according to the Ministry of Digital Economy and Society (MDES). Under the MDES, the specialized Royal Thai Police's Technology Crime Suppression Division (TCSD) is tasked with identifying violators, which has in the last quarter of 2020 found 638 URLs violating the Computer Crime Act 2007, with 26 accounts responsible for the majority of them, and nine individuals as account holders. Likewise, the ministry pursued legal actions against social media platform providers such as Facebook and Twitter, with a total of 8,443 URLs considered hosting illegal content, with which the platforms only complied partially. The attorney-general already commented he will pursue the case against Facebook after the investigations conclude. [Bangkok Post]

The protests were put on hold over the holiday season, which is likely to remain due to the recent spike in Covid-19 cases. Political analysts commented that the 41 cases are the biggest use of Article 112 since 2017, when 64 were charged under the previous king’s reign, calling it “an unprecedented escalation of legal persecution” in a very short time. [Asia Times]

Thailand: Red-shirt leader to file charges against online harassment

(nd) Following social media attacks, Jatuporn Promphan, chairman of the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), asked the specialized Technology Crime Suppression Division (TCSD) to charge those who posted or shared false information about him, which amounted to more than 200 cases.

During the Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) election in Chiang Mai, Jatuporn openly supported Boonlert Buranupakorn, who was defeated by Pichai Lertpongadisorn, who was backed by the Pheu Thai Party and former premier Thaksin Shinawatra. Mr Jatuporn said throughout his campaigning he was attacked with malicious comments and false information about him shared online. He was criticized for abandoning the red-shirt movement and siding with the military, as well as accused of switching sides in an attempt to serve the interest of the military . He insisted the UDD's mission to fight elitism had been passed on to the youth, referencing the student-led protests, and vowed to bring more charges if the online attacks would not stop. [Bangkok Post]

Vietnam: Appeals court upholds prison terms for four activists

(lm) An appeals court on January 8 upheld prison terms handed down last year to four activists convicted of planning protests on Vietnam’s National Day in 2018. Arrested in September 2018, the four were part of a group of eight named by police as members of the Hien Phap civil society organization, a network of activists formed to call for the rights to freedom of speech and assembly as promised under Article 25 of Vietnam’s Constitution. In a trial closed to family members, all eight were found guilty last year under Article 118 of Vietnam’s 2015 Penal Code for “disturbing security” and were sentenced to prison terms ranging from two years and six months to eight years. [Radio Free Asia 1]

Separately, a court in the country’s southern Dong Nai province on January 7 sentenced a Facebook user to a year in jail for “offending” local officials he said had mismanaged local land disputes. [Radio Free Asia 2]

Vietnam: United States, European Union demand release of three journalists jailed earlier this month

(lm) The United States and European Union have called on Vietnam to immediately release three Vietnamese journalists, who were handed jail sentences between 11 and 15 years for spreading propaganda against the state earlier this month [see AiR No. 1, January/2021, 1].

In a statement, the US Embassy in Hanoi slammed the conviction of the three journalists on January 6, calling the sentences handed down “the latest in a worrisome trend of arrests and convictions aimed at Vietnamese citizens exercising rights enshrined in Vietnam’s constitution.” In a similar vein, the EU noted that the right to freedom of expression was guaranteed by the Vietnamese Constitution and by international conventions, including the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, that Vietnam has signed and joined. [Radio Free Asia] 

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China: Space station on the way

(dql) China is set to launch three major missions in the next few months to begin the construction phase of the country’s space station project. 

The first of 11 planned missions to construct a three-module Chinese space station, the three launches mark the beginning of the end phase of a project which had been approved in 1992 to develop human spaceflight capabilities and establish a long-term crewed presence in low Earth orbit. [Space News]

China: Advancing military aircraft

(dql) China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force has offered insights into a new twin-seat variation of China's J-20 stealth fighter jet and a J-20 version equipped with an indigenously made engine in official videos recently released shortly ahead of the 10th anniversary of the maiden flight of the aircraft.

Chinese experts claim that the additional seat of the J-20 could allow for more complicated tasks such as electronic warfare, command of wingman drones or tactical bombing, while the domestic engine  proves that China no longer relies on Russian engines for the J-20.  [Global Times]

China-US tensions over Taiwan: Beijing warns of US UN ambassador’s and Pompeo’s planned visits to Taipei

(dql/nm) Taiwan’s government and the US mission to the UN announced, that US ambassador to the UN Kelly Craft will visit Taiwan from January 13-15 to meet with senior Taiwanese leaders. The visit is of highly symbolic nature as Taiwan is not member of the UN. Craft is set to give a statement on Taiwan’s contributions to the global community, along with a call for the expansion of Taiwan’s participation in international organizations.

Following Undersecretary of State Keith Krach in September and Health and Human Rights Secretary Alex Azar in August last year, Craft will be third senior US official to visit Taiwan within half a year, reflecting US heightened efforts to support Taipei amid high running tensions between Washington and Beijing. In response, China’s UN mission warned that “whoever plays with fire will burn himself. The United States will pay a heavy price for its wrong action," and called on Washington “to stop its crazy provocation.” [Reuters] [MENA FN]

The announcement of Craft’s Taiwan visit was followed by a statement of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo past weekend in which he revealed that the State Department would move to ease restrictions on contacts and interactions between US and Taiwan officials which had been put in place after the adoption of the “One China policy” in 1979. A planned visit of Pompeo to Taiwan – which would have been his final overseas trip as state secretary – however, was cancelled after China threatened to send warplanes over Taiwan in case of the visit. [Department of State, USA] [The Guardian] [Taiwan News]

China-US relations: Trump bans Chinese software apps

(dql) Citing the protection of national security, US President Donald Trump last week signed an executive order to ban eight Chinese software applications, including popular online payments providers Ant Group's Alipay, QQ Wallet and WeChat Pay.

The order will take effect in 45 days and is the latest in a string of bans ordered by Trump against Chinese companies, including China’s largest ones: Huawei, chipmaker SMIC and drone manufacturer DJI Technology along with other firms considered by the US government to have links to the Chinese military. [BBC]

China’s Ministry of Commerce, meanwhile, issued a new bylaw according will make third-party, non-American entities in China punishable in case they comply with Washington’s punitive measures and inflict losses to their Chinese customers and partners. [Asia Times]

Chinese state media fire stitches over Capitol occupation

(dql) Chinese state media were quick to pour vials of wrath on the US over the occupation of the Capitol by supporters of outgoing President Donald Trump. 

Besides contrasting US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s statements on the occupation of Hong Kong’s parliament on the one hand and the storm on the Capitol on the other (“We stand with the People in Hong Kong” vs “Lawlessness and Rioting is always unacceptable”), Global Times cited Chinese netizens' commenting on the mob with words like "karma," "retribution" and "deserving".  A target was also House Speaker Nancy Pelosi who last year described an image of the occupation of Hong Kong’s Legislative Council with the words “a beautiful sight to behold." A tweet, cited by Global Times, ask her whether she “will say the same about the recent developments in Capitol Hill.” [Global Times] [EurAsian Times] [Hong Kong Free Press]

Cross-strait relations: China displays weapons targeting Taiwan

(dql) Images of the year-opening training session of an artillery brigade of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) revealed a new variant of the powerful the PCL-191 long-range multiple launch rocket system (MLRS), capable of hitting strategic targets with precision fire anywhere on the Taiwan’s west coast. 

It was the first public display of the updated weapon, viewed by experts as one of the world’s most powerful of its kind, since its appearance at China’s National Day parade in 2019. [South China Morning Post]

In a related development, the PLA Rocket Force showcased ten types of active short and intermediate-range missiles targeting “Taiwan independence-leaning forces”, in a documentary of state broadcaster China Central Television released on the occasion of the fifth anniversary of the founding organization. [ABS-CBN]

Formerly the Second Artillery Corps, the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) is the strategic and tactical missile forces of China. Established in 2016, the PLARF controls the country’s arsenal of land-based ballistic missiles – both nuclear and conventional.

China-Australia relations: Canberra blocks Chinese takeover of building contractor

(dql) In a latest sign of frosty relations between China and Australia, Canberra rejected a 300 million USD takeover bid of state-owned China State Construction Engineering Corporation for Australian-based company Probuild, a major building contractor. The Australian government cited security concerns for its decision, including worries that China could access sensitive information about national infrastructure built by Probuild, for example Victoria’s police headquarters’ design and vaccine laboratories. [Daily Mail]

China-UK relations: London set to outlaw Chinese imports with links to human rights abuse in Xinjiang

(dql) Britain’s Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab is believed to unveil this week plans to ban imports of goods suspected of using forced labor in Xinjiang. The ban target’s especially Xinjiang’s cotton industry, but the plans are expected to also include tougher laws on exporting goods or technology that could be used for repressive policies. 

The anticipated move will further worsen already strained Sino-British relations over London’s criticism of the crackdown on democracy protesters in Hong Kong and on the treatment of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang. [Aljazeera]

China-Africa relations: Chinese Foreign Minister visits five African countries

(dql) Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s Africa good-will tour last week, took him to five countries, including Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Botswana, Tanzania and Seychelles. 

In Abuja, Wang vowed that China will continue to support infrastructure building in Nigeria, to encourage more investment by Chinese businesses, as well as to carry out cooperation in free trade parks, aimed at advancing Nigeria's industrialization process. [Xinhua]

Nigeria’s Foreign Minister Geoffrey Onyeama, meanwhile, revealed that his country is in talks with China to procure China-made coronavirus vaccines. His revelation came amid concerns that African countries could be pushed to the back of the waiting list for Covid-19 vaccinations. [South China Morning Post 1]

During his second stop in Kinshasa, Wang and his Congolese counterpart Marie Tumba Nzeza signed an Memorandum of Understanding on cooperation in the frame of the Belt and Road initiative, making Congo the 45thAfrican country to join China’s infrastructure development project. At the same meeting, Wang also announced that China will waive Congolese debts worth estimated 28 million USD and provide further financial assistance of 17 million USD. [China.Org] [South China Morning Post 2]

Following Congo, Botswana also signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with China for cooperation on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), after talks between Wang Yi and his Botswana counterpart Lemogang Kwape in Gaborone in which both sides agreed to reinforce bilateral and diplomatic relations. [Africa News]

Meanwhile, in his talks with Tanzanian Foreign Minister Palamagamba Kabudi, Wang reassured that China “is ready to strengthen the exchange of governance experience with Tanzania, advance and discuss practical cooperation in railways, infrastructure and agriculture in line with Tanzania's national development needs and encourage Chinese companies to import more Tanzanian products.” In a related development, Tanzanian President John Magufuli requested China to cancel some of his country’s debts amounting to more than 167 million USD, while the Tanzanian government signed with two Chinese construction companies a 1.3 billion USD contract to build a railway line in Tanzania to connect its main port to neighboring countries. [Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China] [Caixin] [Africa Logistics]

During Wang’s final leg of his Africa tour in the Seychelles, the Chinese Foreign Minister reaffirmed that the Belt and Road initiative remains open to the Seychelles to join, adding that Beijing seeks to intensify efforts to boost cooperation with Seychelles in the three areas of green environmental protection, blue ocean and tourism. Wang’s visit also saw the signing of an agreement part of which is a Chinese grant of 11 million USD, including 4.6 million USD to assist the Indian ocean island nation with a project that will help the country generate more renewable energy. [Xinhua] [Seychelles News Agency]

Japan-South Korea relations: South Korea court orders Japanese government to pay compensation to ‘comfort women’

(dql) In a move further escalating already high running tensions between Japan and South Korea over forced labor during Japan’s rule on the Korean peninsula 1910-1945, a South Korean Court has ordered the Japanese government to pay damages of 91.000 USD to each of 12 victims of war-time sexual slavery. 

In 2016, the victims sued the Japanese government in 2016 for kidnapping, sexual violence, and torture during World War II. In its ruling the court acknowledged that they were subjected to dozens of forced sexual acts by Japanese troops every day.  

Japan rejects the ruling, calling it “absolutely unacceptable,” while indicating that it will not comply with it by saying that “the Japanese government was not subject to South Korean jurisdiction.” [The Guardian] [Deutsche Welle][CNN]

South Korean delegation on diplomatic mission in Iran after capture of South Korean flagged tanker by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards

(dql) A South Korean diplomatic has been in Iran since past weekend to negotiate the release of a South Korean-flagged tanker and its crew seized by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard last week in the Strait of Hormuz.

While Tehran officially claims that the vessel was captured for violating environmental protocols, it appears that the seizure is a move of the Islamic Republic aimed at increasing its leverage over Seoul ahead of negotiations over around seven billion USD in Iranian revenue from oils sales which are frozen in South Korean banks due to US sanctions on Iran. [Aljazeera]

Negotiations kicked off on Monday, but prospects for a release of the tanker look dim as Tehran insists on access to its assets. [Korea Herald]

The ship seizure marks the latest in a string of escalations of tensions between the US and Iran since US President Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran in 2018 and reinstated sanctions suspended by the agreement. In January last year a US drone strike killed a top Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad. Last week, the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed Iran has resumed enriching uranium up to 20% at its underground Fordo nuclear facility, a technical step away from weapons-grade levels. [AP] [BBC]

North Korea: Kim Jong-un granted General Secretary title, announces advancement of nuclear program

(dql) At the ruling Workers' Party's 8th congress on past Sunday, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un was granted title ‘General Secretary’, a largely symbolic move as he had already been the top official within the party as its chairman, but nevertheless seen by analysts as aimed at bolstering his authority amid economic challenges.

Besides announcing economic development goals and a reshuffle of party officials at the meeting, the first of its kind since 2016, Kim also pledged to develop more sophisticated nuclear weapons, including a nuclear-powered submarine, tactical nuclear weapons and advanced warheads designed to penetrate missile defense systems. His promise is widely seen as message to President-elect Joe Biden pressing him to resume talks and make concessions to Pyongyang after he takes office next week. [Deutsche Welle] [CNN]

Taiwan-India relations: New Delhi identifies priority areas of cooperation 

(nm) India and Taiwan are set to focus on bilateral investments, people-to-people exchanges, and technical cooperation in their bilateral relations, according to director-general of the India Taipei Association Gourangalal Das, India’s representative office in Taiwan. 

Stressing mutual disadvantages, Das pointed at “great opportunities for sustained growth to Taiwanese investors” and India’s “world-renowned manufacturing skills and know-how.” Regarding human exchange, he said his office will start out with higher education and tourism, two areas with great room for improvement. He further sees good prospects for cooperation amid restructuring of global supply chains and welcomed Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy which he said compliments India’s Act East policy. When asked about the possibility of a bilateral trade agreement, he however responded his office is currently focused on expanding trade and investments with Taiwan as current numbers are rather modest. [Focus Taiwan]

China pulls 10,000 troops from Line of Actual Control to rear positions

(lm) Showing goodwill in de-escalating the border tension, China has reportedly withdrawn 10,000 troops from its disputed border with India over the course of the past two weeks, with Beijing acknowledging that extreme weather conditions make it impossible for both sides to fight. Still, the People's Liberation Army’s (PLA) frontline deployments remain unchanged, according to Indian sources. [South China Morning Post 1] [Hindustan Times]

Earlier, the Indian army on January 11 returned a Chinese soldier it had taken into custody earlier last week for transgressing into the Indian side in an area south of Pangong Tso lake. This was the second detention on the high-altitude border: Last October, the Indian Army returned another Chinese soldier it had apprehended after he ‘strayed’ across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) into Indian-controlled Ladakh’s Demchok area [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3]. [Deutsche Welle] [South China Morning Post 2]

Although Chinese troops have pulled back from some training areas on the adjacent Tibetan plateau, the Chinese military, for one thing, has established a fully-fledged strategic observation post near the crucial trijunction border area between India, China, and Bhutan. The bone of contention in the 2017 Doklam standoff, the plateau is of strategic importance to New Delhi, because it overlooks the Siliguri corridor, a narrow stretch of land also known as the ‘Chicken’s Neck’ that connects India’s north-east with the mainland [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1]. [South China Morning Post 3]

For another thing, an unspecified number of Indian soldiers belonging to the Rashtriya Rifles, a counter-insurgency force of the Indian Army, has been shifted to the LAC. The soldiers had hitherto been deployed in the state of Jammu and Kashmir to fight the popular armed insurgency. Moreover, India’s Army Chief General Naravane said on January 12 he expected another round of talks soon, although several rounds of talks have so far made little headway in deflating tensions over the disputed border. [The Straits Times] [Anadolu Agency]

Nepal’s foreign minister to visit India on January 14

(lm) Bilateral relations between India and Nepal continue to see an upwards trajectory, as Nepal’s Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali is set to visit New Delhi on January 14 to chair the sixth meeting of the India-Nepal Joint Commission, a foreign minister-level bilateral mechanism between the two countries established in 1987. [Hindustan Times] [The Hindu]

Gyawali will be the senior-most Nepalese official to visit New Delhi since bilateral ties had derailed in May last year, after New Delhi had announced the inauguration of a new Himalayan link road built through the disputed area of Kalapani that lies at a strategic three-way junction with Tibet and China [see e.g. AiR No. 20, May/2020, 3, AiR No. 28, July/2020, 2]. Shortly thereafter, Kathmandu had issued a new political map unilaterally expanding its territorial claims over the Lipulekh Pass and other mountain territory claimed by both India and Nepal [see AiR No. 24, June/2020, 3].

Resuming dialogue last August, Nepalese Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli then laid the groundwork for a reformed India outreach, calling Indian Prime Minister Modi on the occasion of India’s 74th Independence Day [see AiR No. 33, August/2020, 3], and stopping the distribution of a new text book that included the country’s revised political map. Back-to-back visits to Nepal by the head of India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) [see AiR No. 44, November/2020, 1]., Indian Army Chief General Naravane [see AiR No. 42, October/2020, 3], and Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla [see AiR No. 48, December/2020, 1] then laid the groundwork for Gyawali’s trip to India.

Beyond solving the boundary dispute, the Nepalese government is also hoping for Gyawali’s trip to yield a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), which would include an agreement on the procurement of COVID-19 vaccines from New Delhi. While China has offered to supply its version of its CoronaVac vaccine, Nepal has given priority to Covishield, a vaccine manufactured by the Serum Institute of India (SII), citing logistics, pricing, and New Delhi’s assurance to facilitate procurement. [The Kathmandu Post 1] [The Kathmandu Post 2] [South China Morning Post]

India must do more to become China alternative for manufacturers, says outgoing US ambassador

While delivering a farewell address on the US-India partnership, Washington’s outgoing ambassador to India criticized Prime Minister Modi’s trade policies, saying New Delhi will need to take more policy action if it wants to become a new destination for manufacturing investments in the Indo-Pacific region in the post-pandemic era. [South China Morning Post]

As China is currently facing an unprecedented global backlash destabilizing its reign as the world's factory of choice, the Modi administration has sensed an opportunity and has prioritized efforts to attract supply chains, both at central and state government level. However, attempts to attract US companies looking at setting up manufacturing facilities out of China have so far yielded little success mainly because of differences on market access. Last year, India announced its withdrawal from a crucial multilateral trade agreement with fifteen other Asia-Pacific economies, collectively known as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), despite seven years of negotiations [see AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3]. Observers say decisions like these make it difficult for Indian exporters to benefit from tariff-free access to destination markets or offer reciprocity to its trading partners.

During the event, the outgoing ambassador also commented on the possibility of sanctions hanging over New Delhi’s ongoing deals with Moscow for military hardware, including the S-400 surface-to-air missile system [see AiR No. 52, December/2020, 5]. While he assured that sanctions under the 2017 Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) were not were never designed to harm "friends and allies" of Washington, he also cautioned that New Delhi might soon have to choose between “trade-offs”, namely inter-operability and diversification of sources of procurement. [Hindustan Times]

Meanwhile, a United States delegation led by the Consul General Hyderabad met on January 5 with the chief minister of India’s southwestern state of Andhra Pradesh. During the meeting, the delegation expressed Washington’s interest in setting up an American Hub in the state’s executive capital, Visakhapatnam - the second one in the country after Ahmedabad. [The New Indian Express]

Indian Prime Minister Modi inaugurates 450-kilometer gas pipeline in southern India

(lm) Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has officially opened a 450-kilometer natural gas pipeline will transport gas from the southwestern state of Kerala further north to the state of Karnataka. Attending the inauguration through video link, the prime minister said the pipeline was another step towards the countries goal of “One nation, one gas grid”, which would increase the share of natural gas in India’s energy mix from 6 to 15 per cent. India is in the process of constructing more than 16,000 km of gas pipeline in a large-scale program anticipated for completion in approximately six years. [South Asia Monitor] [The Australian Pipeliner]

Indian Prime Minister Modi inaugurates sections of freight corridor, calls project a “game-changer”

(lm) Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi last week inaugurated several sections of the Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) for commercial operations. Billed as the largest rail infrastructure project in India, the DFC aims to decongest the country’s railway network by moving 70 percent of India's goods train to two corridors. The total 2,843-km project has been in the making since 2006 with little movement on the ground. With both corridors on track for completion in December this year, it is finally ready to take off, albeit in phases.

On January 5, Modi inaugurated a 351-kilometers section of the Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor (EDFC), a freight specific railway under construction in northern to eastern India. The railway will run between Ludhiana in Punjab and Dankuni (near Kolkata) in West Bengal. Two days later, the prime minister then inaugurated a 306-kilometer section of the Western Dedicated Freight Corridor (WDFC), a freight corridor that will connect India's capital, New Delhi, and its economic hub, Navi Mumbai, covering a distance of 1483 kilometers and touching all major ports along the way. [The Indian Express] [Autocar Professional]

Both an enabler and beneficiary of other key schemes of the federal government, such as the Industrial corridor or Make in India, Prime Minister Modi hailed the DFC a “game-changer” for India in the 21st century. While the majority of the EDFC is being funded through a loan from the World Bank, Japan so far extended concessional Official Development Assistance (ODA) loans of approx. $4.2 billion for development of the Western DFC. [South Asia Monitor] [Japan International Cooperation Agency]

Pakistan, United States hold joint consultations over strategic defense dialogue

(lm) A US delegation led by the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs visited Pakistan’s General Headquarters (GHQ) on January 7 to hold formal consultations on under the Pakistan-US Strategic Level Defense Dialogue. While discussing opportunities for strengthening bilateral defense cooperation on counterterrorism, the senior US official reaffirmed Washington’s commitment to a “long-term mutually-beneficial security partnership” with Islamabad. [The Express Tribune]

Pakistan cannot recognize Israel, says Prime Minister Imran Khan

(lm) Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan on January 6 said Islamabad would refuse to recognize Israel until a viable two-state solution was reached in regard to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Further elaborating, the prime minister provided two reasons, the first one being a potential loss of “moral standing” on the Kashmir conflict. On the second reason, Khan then cited Muhammad Ali Jinnah, the founder of Pakistan, who in 1948 said that Pakistan could never accept Israel as long as Palestinians are not given their rights and there was no just settlement.[Anadolu Agency]

Touching on ties between Turkey and Pakistan, the prime minister recalled the "historical linkage" between the two countries and said they will not forget the support and help Turkey has given to Pakistan on the Kashmir issue. [The EurAsian Times]

Maldives to resume diplomatic ties with Qatar

(lm) A day after the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a regional intergovernmental alliance consisting of all Arab states of the Persian Gulf – except Iraq – officially ended its diplomatic dispute with Qatar, the Maldives also decided to reinstate full diplomatic relations with Doha. Reinstating diplomatic ties with the Gulf nation was one of the electoral pledges of incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih's government. [The Edition]

Accusing Qatar of being too close to Iran and financing terrorist groups, in June 2017, Saudi Arabia and its allies, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Egypt severed ties with Qatar and imposed a naval, air and land blockade on the country. In solidarity with the quartet, the Maldives had followed suit hours after the announcement, giving rise to rumors that the government under then-President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom had been influenced by Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia fails to sign debt suspension pact with Pakistan

(lm) Saudi Arabia failed to sign a formal agreement with Pakistan for debt suspension under the G-20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI), which offers a temporary suspension of government-to-government debt payments to 76 countries. A deadline for phase-1 of the suspension initiative covering a period from May to December 2020 expired on December 31 last year. [The Express Tribune]

Since the DSSI was approved last April [see AiR No. 16, April/2020, 3], Islamabad had entered into negotiations with 21 creditor countries for debt suspension amounting to $1.7 billion. According to the Economic Affairs Ministry, Pakistan successfully negotiated and concluded rescheduling agreements with 19 bilateral creditors, including members of the so-called Paris Club group of major creditor countries. Thus, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are the two remaining countries that are yet to ratify debt suspension agreements with Pakistan.

Last year, Saudi Arabia already decided to withdraw its cash-support to Pakistan, withdrawing 2$ billion in loan and cancelling investment commitments of another $20 billion in Pakistan. At the time, China had come forward and extended $1 billion in loan to help Islamabad avoid any adverse impact of the partial withdrawal of the Saudi lifeline [see AiR No. 32, August/2020, 2]. Riyadh also asked its ally UAE to choke Islamabad economically by suspending work visas to its citizens [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4].

Turkmenistan, Pakistan agree to deepen bilateral trade

(lm) During a meeting between Turkmenistan’s ambassador to Pakistan and an Adviser to Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan, both sides agreed to deepen trade relations between the two countries. Located in a landlocked but resource-rich region, Turkmenistan expressed keen interest in connecting with Pakistan’s warm water ports – most notably the China-operated Gwadar port. [The Express Tribune] [Profit by Pakistan Today]

To gain access to the economies of neighboring countries, Islamabad is already working on a trilateral railway project connecting Pakistan with Afghanistan and Uzbekistan [see AiR No. 52, December/2020, 5].

United States charges 3 Sri Lankan nationals for role in 2019 Sri Lanka Easter bombings

(lm) A recent example of Washington’s resolve to prosecute international terrorists, three Sri Lankan nationals are facing charges in the United States for supporting an Islamic State (IS) cell. The local group, called ISIS in Sri Lanka, has been blamed for a coordinated series of suicide bombings in three Christian churches and four hotels in three Sri Lankan cities on April 21, 2019, killing more than 260 people, including five US citizens [see AiR (4/4/2019)]. [United States Department of Justice] [Colombo Gazette]

All three defendants are being held by authorities in Sri Lanka. However, it is not clear whether they will be brought to the US for trial and whether the government of Sri Lanka would agree to send them. [Voice of America]

Pakistan conducts successful test flight of Fatah-1 rocket system

(lm) Pakistan successfully conducted a test flight of Fatah-1, an indigenously developed guided multi-launch rocket system. Last February, amid heightened tensions with neighboring India, Islamabad carried out a successful test of its Ra’ad-II cruise missile. A month earlier, Pakistan tested the Ghaznavi ballistic missile, which has a range of 290 kilometers, just days after India tested its submarine-launched K-4 ballistic missile. Anadolu Agency]

Bangladesh invites Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said to join founding father's birth centenary

(lm) Bangladesh has invited the Sultan of Oman, Haitham bin Tariq Al Said, to join the birth centenary celebrations of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the founding president of Bangladesh and father of incumbent Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The sultan was also invited to attend celebrations taking place on March 26 – the Independence Day of Bangladesh to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the country's declaration of independence from Pakistan. [Dhaka Tribune]

Indonesia: Underwater vehicle Chinese-made

(nd) The autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) that was found off South Sulawesi last month, which sparked concerns of a security breach or espionage attempt, was made in China. The location is strategic due to its sea lanes used for trade, and the resource-rich waters are rich fishing grounds and energy reserves alike. Due to the rising tensions in the South China Sea, security officials have voiced suspicion about Chinese maritime activities. Still, the location of origin is unclear and no country had claimed the vehicle.

According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (Unclos), marine scientific research in a country’s exclusive economic zone should only be conducted with the consent of the respective state. [South China Morning Post] [See also AiR No. 1, January/2021, 1]

Indonesia: Bakamla armed against rising tensions in the South China Sea

(nd) Last month, the civilian maritime force, Bakamla, in the northern Natuna Island armed its vessels with machine guns due to recurringly intruding vessels from China and Vietnam. While Indonesia does not consider itself as a claimant sate in the South China Sea, China’s historic fishing right claims overlap with Indonesia’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The move is delicate due to its possible effect on bilateral relations. China is Indonesia’s largest trade partner, with a trade volume of US$79.4 billion in 2019. With the efforts to curb the Covid-19 pandemic, Indonesia is dependent on vaccination, with 1.2 million doses of Sinovac having arrived in early December.

Bakamla was authorized last summer to procure weapons, and ships were fitted with remote-controlled Stabilised Naval Gun Systems in December. This was also in response to an increase in calls from parliament and the public, in an effort to curb anti-China groups. Analyst therefore did not interpret the latest move as a toughening of Indonesia’s position but rather an effort to prevent an escalation. The same logic applies to Vietnamese fishing boats, due to an unresolved overlap of the respective EEZ claims. While an increase in arms might serve as a deterrence, the numbers of ships are still outweighed by those of the Chinese coastguard, which is why Bakamla still relies on larger ships of the Indonesian Navy.

Experts expect Chinese naval actions to be more focused on the Philippines, Malaysia and Vietnam this year, while it usually carefully balanced its moves to not be putting pressure on all claimant countries at the same time, possibly to avoid a multilateral reaction. [South China Morning Post]

Malaysia, US to put Mahatir on extremist list

(nd) Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad was named one of the “Top 20 Most Dangerous Extremists Around the World” and “considered a huge threat to international security” by the US-based Counter Extremism Project (CEP). Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah was named as the most dangerous extremist on the list, ahead of Amir Muhammad Sa’id Abdal-Rahman al-Mawla, self-proclaimed “caliph” of terrorist group Islamic State. 

Mahatir entered the list due to his remarks in October 2020 on the terrorist attack on a French teacher for showing the caricatures of the Prophet, and labelled anti-Semitic and a critic of the West. Former US government officials founded CEP in 2014 with their mission lying in “fighting global extremism”, and a particular focus on disrupting ISIS. [South China Morning Post]

Myanmar, China to meet this month

(nd) As first high-level official visit after the National League for Democracy’s (NLD) landslide victory in the election in November, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Myanmar this month. It is expected that Wang’s visit will speed up the construction of projects delayed by the pandemic under the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), part of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). 

Issues could arise due to the lack of participation of residents and ethnic states and little information shared, which could lead to protests against these projects upon the beginning of construction. The development of the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in western Rakhine State, the China-Myanmar Border Economic Cooperation Zone in Shan and Kachin states, and the New Yangon City project in Myanmar’s commercial capital were named as pillars of the CMEC by Chinese president Xi Jinping. None of the CMEC projects has reached the implementation stage yet.

While Myanmar’s earlier role vis-à-vis China was rather passive, officials in Naypyitaw now argue that Myanmar should be more pragmatic in dealing with China, urging the country to developing projects itself and communicate with the public and then negotiate with China. Both countries’ relationship iscomplex with China being the largest neighbor and trade partner, who will gain economic control over Myanmar’s through the development projects – a criticism that follows all projects of the BRI globally, including the potential for debt trap diplomacy, implications for national sovereignty, environmental issues and security risks. [Irrawaddy]

Myanmar, India to cooperate in Nagaland 

(nd) Following Indian Army Chief General M.M. Naravane’s and Foreign Secretary H.V. Shringla’s visit to Myanmar in November, more than 50 militants of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN), including its top leader Niki Sumi, were made to abandon their base in Myanmar by the military. Sumi returned and showed his willingness to join the ongoing Naga peace process with India’s federal government. Ever since a deadly attack on 18 Indian soldiers on June 4, 2015, Indian security forces were hunting Sumi, who was considered responsible for the ambush, while the United National Liberation Front of Western South East Asia (UNLFW) claimed responsibility for the attack. Analysts suggest that it is likely that the Indian government will accept Sumi’s proposal to restore the ceasefire agreement and drop the cases against him.

India was negotiating for Burmese cooperation for a while already, with its Northeastern neighbor being key to Narendra Modi’ Act East policy. The involvement of envoys and the top military brass highlights a switch in India’s foreign policy strategy, which also included foreign tours to boost bilateral defense cooperation to counterbalance China, inter alia to Myanmar, Nepal, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and South Korea. [Irrawaddy]

Thailand, China to notify of river flow hold back

(nd) The Mekong River Commission (MRC) and Thailand reported that China notified its downstream neighbors about its holding back of the Mekong River flow at a hydropower dam on the waterway's upper reaches for 20 days. The water restriction started on December 31 and the newly introduced US-backed monitoring system already asserted that China had failed to notify downstream countries. The cited reason for the holding back was "maintenance of transmission lines" in its electricity grid, with the flow being gradually restored by January 25. Last October, China agreed to share such water data with the MRC. [Bangkok Post]

Thailand: Anti-migrant sentiment amid second Covid-19 wave

(nd) Following the latest spike in Covid-19 cases in a shrimp market southwest of Bangkok, the high number of migrant workers were blamed for the cause of a second wave in infections. The virus was able to spread quickly in tiny, congested quarters, comparable to ghetto-like living situations among migrant workers elsewhere in the region. The anti-Myanmar migrant sentiment was further pushed by social media postings, amounting to threats and calls not to treat them. Other, however, remind that the workers have been there before the virus outbreak and supported the already struggling Thai economy.

Another factor are Thai human smuggling gangs collaborating with authorities and facilitating illegal entrance. On December 9, the Thai police arrested three Thai human smugglers and nine illegal Chinese migrants in Chiang Rai province. Those gangs are also active in Myanmar and smuggle humans into illicit industries, like gambling, or under slavery-like conditions.

The exact number of Burmese migrant workers is unknown due to the lack of paper documentation, but estimated to about 3-4 million, with additional 1-2 million from Laos and Cambodia, many of whom lost their job and are now stranded in Thailand since their countries will not let them come back due to their possible Covid-19 danger. Official figures in Cambodia and Laos are low, with only Myanmar showing an upwards rising trend with 130,604 confirmed cases and 2,946 deaths as of January 11, with actual figures presumed to be much higher due to testing and treatment mostly happening in major urban centers like Yangon and Mandalay only. With more superior medical facilities than its neighbors, this also poses a risk to Thailand, and gives further fuel to discriminate against migrants and their ongoing victimization. [Asia Times]

Announcements

Upcoming Online Events 

13 January 2021 @ 7:00 pm ET, Centre for International Governance Innovation, Canada 

Everything is Connected with Dr. Laura DeNardis 

This presentation and subsequent Q&A ask: Is our ever-increasing connectivity to the Internet blurring the lines between our physical and virtual worlds? How can we manage the balance between the benefits and dangers of the Internet of Things (IoT)? Dr. Laura DeNardis, CIGI Senior Fellow and scholar of Internet architecture and governance at American University and Yale Law School’s Information Society Project, will launch her new book. 

For more information, please visit [CIGI]. 

13 January 2021 @ 11:00 am CET, European Centre for International Political Economy, Belgium 

ECIPE Webinar: How Can We Revive the WTO and Trade Multilateralism? 

In this webinar, Simon Evenett considers how to revive the WTO and trade multilateralism after the COVID-19 crisis, asking in particular: Has the COVID-19 crisis done permanent damage to the self-correcting system of the WTO? What can the WTO do to arrest the trend of new trade frictions? How is the WTO system addressing various shifts in the global economy and politics – like the growth of the digital economy and climate change? Is the WTO able to deal with these and other new 21st century problems?

If you wish to participate in the webinar, please visit [ECIPE] for more information and registration details. 

13 January 2021 @ 2:15 pm ET, Center for American Progress, United States 

Building A More Perfect Union 

The Center for American Progress will release a framework for national policymaking centered on an expansive but achievable set of multiyear goals to rewire America’s economy, rebuild the social safety net, and reconnect America with the rest of the world. In this webinar it will explore the framework jointly with Gov. Tom Wolf (D) of Pennsylvania and other panelists. 

For more information, please visit [American Progress]. 

13 January, 2021 @ 12:00 pm EST, Atlantic Council, USA

AI, China, and the global quest for digital sovereignty – Report launch

This event will discuss on alternative futures for global technology cooperation and regional specifics when it comes to the governance of AI and emerging tech. 

If you are interested in joining the event, please follow [Atlantic]for more information and registration. 

13 January 2021 @ 10:30 am - 12:00 pm ET, Wilson Center, USA

Joe Biden’s Though Challenges in Iran 

Since mid-2019, Iran has breached its obligations in tit-for-tat responses to hundreds of punitive U.S. sanctions. So who goes first? Both countries have said that they want “compliance for compliance”—after the other one acts. Biden wants Tehran to roll back its uranium enrichment and reduce its stockpile; Iran wants Washington to lift sanctions. How does this all play out before Iran closes down for Nowruz in mid-March, then launches its presidential campaign in April, for an election in June?

For details and information on how to join the conference, please access [Wilson].

14 January 2021 @ 2:30 pm CET, Clingendael, The Netherlands

Webinar: Belarus’ Uncertain Path Ahead 

This webinar co-organized with the Polish and Lithuanian Embassies in The Hague tries to shed light on Belarus’ current situation and its wider ramifications for the region, considering in particular: What is the current state of play and what can we expect?, How does the opposition look back on a turbulent year and what are its plans for 2021? Under which conditions will it engage with a regime-led constitutional reform process?, and What can the European Union and individual member do to promote a democratic future for Belarus? Could this also involve a dialogue with Russia to work towards a peaceful and stable transition?

For more information, please visit [Clingendael]. 

14 January 2021 @ 5.30 pm ET, Krasno Global Affair & Business Council, USA 

Defending Democracy: The Global Rise of Autocracy in the U.S., Europe & Elsewhere

This event will discuss the global rise of authoritarian regimes.

For more information, see [Krasno].

15 January 2021 @ 9:00-10:00 am PTD, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, USA

Xi Jingping’s Himalayan Overreach 

China's expansionism under Xi Jinping is injecting greater instability and tension into the Indo-Pacific region, most visible the relationship between China and India, which has come under severe strain following China’s stealth encroachments in the northernmost borderlands of Ladakh in 2020. The aggression promises to sharpen the rivalry between the two Asian giants and lead to important changes in Indian defense, trade and foreign policies. 

If you are interested in joining the event, please follow [Hoover] for more information and registration. 

15 January 2021 @ 12:00 pm EST, Hudson Institute, United States  

India & the U.S.: Strategic Partners for the Future 

You can join an expert panel in a discussion on where the India-U.S. partnership stands today and prospects for the months and years ahead. Although the two countries share a long partnership and similar geopolitical challenges, their relation is far from becoming the “defining partnership of the twenty-first century.” The panelists will ask if China will finally bring the two countries closer together to achieve the strategic goals and other questions.

For more information, please visit [Hudson Institute]. 

20 January 2021 @ 3:00 pm JST, Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Japan   

SPF NUS-ISAS Joint Webinar Part 2 – Institutionalising the Quad: Can it Seize the Moment for the Future? 

This seminar co-organized by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, National University of Singapore, and the Institute of South Asian Studies (NUS-ISAS) will discuss future trajectories of the Quadrilateral Security Initiative – between Japan, Singapore, Australia, and India – and its influence in the region, especially in consideration of China’s growing influence. It also asks: How willing are the Quad members in coordinating their security policies and agreeing on explicit military and diplomatic commitments?

Information and registration details are accessible under [SPF]. 

20 January 2021 @ 11:00 am - 12:30 pm EST, Freeman Spogli Institute for international Studies, USA

Public - Private Collaborations and NGOs in the Health Sector in Asia. 

This event will explore the trade-offs in contracting for health services in Asia and beyond, from the conceptual foundations to the daily reality of practitioners, and what COVID-19 has taught about “building back better” in the future.

Please find registration detail here: [FSI]

21 January 2021 @ 3:00 pm CET, Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance, Switzerland 

Climate Change, Gender-based Violence: Implications for the Security Sector

In this panel, experts from Latin America and the Caribbean, the Pacific, Europe and West Africa will discuss the intersections between gender-based violence and climate security as well as the ways through which the security sector can contribute to minimizing GBV related to climate change. 

Please follow [DCAF] for more information and pre-registration.

22-23 February 2021 @ 1:00-6:00 pm GMT,  Chatham House, USA

Responsible Business 2021​

In this two-day online conference senior business leaders, policymakers and the investment community will explore pathways to resilient and sustainable growth.

For more information, see [Chatham].

22 January 2021 @ 10:00 am ET, Queen’s University, Canada 

Tech for Good: WHO WATCHES THE WATCHMEN: Evidence of the Effect of Body-Worn Cameras on New York City Policing 

This seminar will present a multi-year study of the precinct rollout of BWCs in the New York City Police Department (NYPD), the largest metropolitan police force in the United States. It estimates the effect of BWC deployment on precinct volumes of citizen stops, arrests, complaints against officers and use-of-force incidents. 

For information and registration details, please follow [QU]. 

26 January 2021 @ 10:00 am CET, Bruegel, Belgium 

Conversation with President Jin Liqun (AIIB) on key Infrastructure trends that could shape the recovery 

President Jin Liqun of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and Bruegel Director Guntram Wolff will discuss how infrastructure financing is expected to shift in response to a post-COVID world. As the pandemic has exposed vulnerabilities and structural weaknesses in the global economy, but simultaneously presented an opportunity to imagine, plan, and build the infrastructure for tomorrow, an analysis of infrastructure financing trends seems timely. 

You can access more information and the livestream under [Bruegel]. 

26 January 2021 @ 8:00 am ET, Asia Society Policy Institute, United States 

Building Blocks: A Sectoral Approach to Asia-Pacific Trade 

Against the backdrop of the establishment of the CPTPP and the RCEP – the two comprehensive trade deals in the Indo-Pacific – this webinar will take a closer look at the potential of narrower sectoral deals, exploring the following questions: What are the pros and cons of narrower trade agreements and how can the challenges they present be overcome? In which substantive areas are regional sectoral trade agreements the most relevant and timely? Which countries might join a regional agreement? What are the prospects of a limited trade negotiation serving as a building block to a larger comprehensive agreement down the road?

If you are interested in this webcast, please visit [Asia Society] for more information. 

26 January 2021 @ 3:00-5:00 pm EST, Cato Institute, Washington DC, USA

Virtual Naples City Seminar

This event will be discuss ten global trends every smart person should know and the outlook on debt and spending under Biden. 

If you are interested in joining the event, please follow [CATO] for more information and registration. 

26-28 January 2021 @ 5:00 pm IST, The Institute for National Security Studies, Israel  

The 14th Annual International Conference | New World Disorder – Redefining National Security

Over three days, the INSS 14th Annual International Conference compromises a wide array of online formats, including panel discussions, lectures, simulations, Q&As, and interviews, considering contemporary questions of national security such as the world between Trump and Biden, the war in the Middle East, and future perspectives for Israel.

For details and information on how to join the conference, please access [INSS]. 

27 January 2021 @ 4:00 pm CET, Bruegel, Belgium 

In search of a fitting monetary policy: the ECB’s strategy review 

As the European Central Bank is in the middle of reviewing its monetary policy strategy, this webinar seeks to discuss the following questions: What are the issues that it needs to address? Are there quick gains to be had? And what are the big issues that it must consider? Importantly, how is the role of macroeconomic management changing in the era of the digital transformation?

If you are interested in this event, please follow [Bruegel] for more information. 

27 January 2021 @ 9:00 am EDT, Hudson Institute, United States 

The Future of US-Nigeria Relations: A Conversation with Ambassador John Campbell 

James Barnett and John Campbell – former US Ambassador to Nigeria and Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations – will discuss contemporary Nigerian politics, the challenges of post-colonial state-building, and the future of US-Africa relations. Campbell is also author of the new book, Nigeria and the Nation State: Rethinking Diplomacy with the Postcolonial World, urging US officials to stop projecting their own image of the nation-state onto Africa and embrace a more decentralized approach to diplomacy. 

Please follow [Hudson Institute] for more information. 

28 January 2021 @ 3:00 pm CET, German Institute for Global and Area Studies, Germany  

Digital Development Dialogue (3D) 2021 

This online seminar is a monthly forum for policy and research exchange featuring one researcher and one practitioner to touch upon key topics in development policy. This month’s seminar will consider: Aid Effectiveness for the Next Decade: How Will the Debate on Aid Effectiveness Evolve in the Upcoming Years? 

Please visit [GIGA] for more information. 

Recent book releases

Tim Hwnag, Subprime Attention Crisis: Advertising and the Time Bomb at the Heart of the Internet, FSG Originals, 176 pages, October 13, 2020, reviewed in [ScienceMag]

Ryan Abott, The Reasonable Robot: Artificial Intelligence and the Law, Cambridge University Press, 300 pages, June 25, 2020, with a review in [Jurist].

Cass R. Sunstein, and Adrian Vermeule, Law and Leviathan: Redeeming the Administrative State, Belknap Press, 208 pages, September 15, 2020, reviewed in [Cipher Brief].

William G. Thomas III, A Question of Freedom: The Families Who Challenged Slavery from the Nation’s Founding to the Civil War, Yale University Press, 432 pages, November 24, 2020, reviewed in [Washington Post].

Calls

The International Studies Association invites to submit papers for its 7th Joint Human Rights Conference scheduled for 14-16 June 2021. The deadline for submissions is 19 February, 2021. For more information, see [ISANET].

The International Politic Science Association invites to submit papers for its Fourth International Workshop "Geopolitics of Small States in the 21st Century" to be held on 18 and 19 October, 2021. The deadline for submission is 1 March, 2021. Further details available at [IPSA]. 

The Institute for the Study of the Asia Pacific and the International Institute of Korean Studies has opened the call for papers for Postgraduate Research Seminar in Korean Studies and Asia Pacific Studies. The deadline for submission is 5 March, 2021. For more information, see [H-Announcement].

Jobs & positions

The University of Luxembourg is offering a position of Postdoctoral Researcher in Criminal Law. Closing date for application is 25 February, 2021. For more information, see [University of Luxembourg].

The Centre for Law  & Economics at ETH Zurich is offering a position of Fellowship in Empirical Intellectual Property/Internet Law Research. Closing date for application is until 31 January, 2021. Further details provided at [ETH Zurich].

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is recruiting an Associate Strategy and Policy Analyst rendering analytical and technical support necessary for ADB's institution-wide operational planning and monitoring. Application can be submitted until 22 January 2021. More details on the vacancy at [ADB].

openDemocracy is offering a position of Head of Advocacy and Impact with key responsiblities in building, developing and executing openDemocracy’s overall impact strategy. Applications close on 17 January 2021. Further information at [openDemocracy].

We would greatly appreciate your feedback! Please send any feedback you have regarding this newsletter to: info@cpg-online.de 

Also, don't forget to Like CPG on Facebook, and browse our website for other updates and news!