Get the pattern, read the trend

Asia in Review

No. 23, June/2020, 2

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

The AiR team is presenting this week’s Asia in Review issue.  

We wish you an informative read and hope that you all stay healthy and enjoy regained freedom and mobility as in many countries around the world life slowly returns to normal. 

With best regards,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in South East Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China/Hong Kong: Tiananmen square crackdown remembered amid passage of contentious national anthem bill

(dql) Defying a ban on mass gathering imposed by the police on grounds of public health concerns thousands of Hongkongers last Thursday joined a candlelight vigil to mark the anniversary of the violent Tiananmen Square crackdown of the student-led protests in 1989. [South China Morning Post]

Attendees chanted “fight for freedom, stand with Hong Kong” and “liberate Hong Kong, revolution of our time” slogans to also express their rejection of Beijing’s decision at the National People’s Congress end of last month to craft – without involving Hong Kong’s legislature – a national security law for the city that would punish subversion, secession, terrorism and foreign interference in the former British colony and would allow relevant central agencies to establish institutions in the city to “lawfully fulfill their related duty of protecting national security.” The move has been widely feared by critics as paving the way for Beijing to massively curtail civil rights and democratic spaces in Hong Kong. [Aljazeera] [AiR No. 22, June/2020, 1]

In a related highly symbolic move and latest sign of Beijing's tightening grip on the city, Hong Kong’s legislature on the same day passed the contentious national anthem bill against fierce protest of the opposition parties. The bill outlaws disrespecting and insulting the Chinese anthem ‘March of the Volunteers’, punishable with a fine up to almost 6,500 USD and imprisonment of three years. [Deutsche Welle] 

China: Senior cadres face corruption trial

(dql) Two corruption cases involving two senior cadres in Xinjiang have been revealed by the Central Commission of Discipline Inspection (CCDI), China’s top anti-corruption watchdog. The first case involves the deputy chairwoman of the government of the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, who is under investigation for corruption. Holding the rank of vice-minister, she is the fifth “tiger” to be targeted by the CCDI this year. [South China Morning Post 1]

In the second case the former head of the United Front branch in the Kashgar prefecture stands accused of taking bribes in return for job promotions and project approvals. [South China Morning Post 2]

Japan: Record high extra budget for Covid-19 measures

(dql) The Japanese government on Monday submitted to parliament a draft second extra budget for fiscal 2020 with a record high totaling 291 billion USD to carry out additional measures to boost the country’s response to coronavirus pandemic. Based on this supplementary budget, the government plans to roll out an almost 1.1 trillion USD package of programs focusing on support for small firms which are struggling to cope with the fallout of the pandemic as well as on strengthening the country’s health system, in particular the medical staff at the forefront of the battle against the virus. The proposal is expected to be approved by both chambers of the Diet this week. [Mainichi]

Japan: Revision of copyright control law

(mp) The Japanese parliament passed a new copyright control law which aims at banning illegal downloads of manga, magazines, and academic texts. While videos and music had been protected already, the law fills a gap in the existing protection of intellectual property. Previously, the rising success of copyright-breaching websites had led to an estimated economic loss of more than 2.75 billion USD. Further, so-called “leech websites,” which enable users to perform illegal file sharing, are also targeted by the legislation. Nevertheless, a list of exemptions from punishment was published, including derivative work, fair use, and petty breach cases. [Kyodo] 

South Korea: Rough start of new National Assembly session

(dql) Signaling rocky times for parliamentary work, South Korea’s 21st National Assembly kicked off last week with the main opposition United Future Party (UFP) boycotting the plenary session by leaving the sesion after the address by the party’s floor leader.

The UFP cited the lack of the legitimacy of the session for its boycott arguing that the ruling Democratic Party’s (DP) unilaterally convened it without an agreement with the UFP and warning that “[i]f the ruling party pushes ahead [with bills] based on its majority, the National Assembly will lose its reason for being." [Korea Herald] [KBS]

In the general election in April the DP won 177 of the 300 seats of the National Assembly.

South Korea: Head of shelter for ex-sex slaves found dead

(yh/dql) President Moon vowed to take measures to increase transparency of fundraising activities and donation management of non-governmental organizations in South Korea. [Korea Herald]

Background of his pledge is the death of an activist in charge of the shelter for South Korean victims of sex slavery of Japan’s wartime. The shelter is run by the Korean Council for Justice and Remembrance for the Issue of Military Sexual Slavery by Japan (Korean Council), which has been in the center of controversy and under prosecution investigation in the past few weeks as it is suspected of exploiting and misusing funds meant for “comfort women”.

While the police believe the activist took her own life, the activist group said that the pressure stemming  from the investigation, suspicion, and visit from prosecutors lead to her suicide. [The Korea Times]

Taiwan: Kaohsiung mayor recalled

(ef/dql) The citizen of Kaohsiung overwhelmingly voted to recall their mayor Han Kuo-yu, the former presidential candidate of the opposition Kuomintang. Accused of dereliction of duty as mayor in the wake his presidential campaign for which he took three months leave, 97.4% of the voters decided to remove him from office.

The recall – the first ever recall of a mayor in Taiwan – reflects Han’s dramatic rise and fall as politician who managed to win for the KMT in November 2018 the mayoral election in Kaohsiung – hitherto two decades long a stronghold of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) – and to become the celebrated hopeful for the presidential election which he eventually lost against President Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP. [Focus Taiwan]

For a take on the recall as a major blow for the KMT which is struggling to reform itself after the dire results in the presidential and legislative elections in January see [Taiwan News], [Aljazeera].

Law and Politics in South Asia 

India: Environmental court finds LG liable for gas leak deaths – No proper EIAs during corona crisis

(ls) India’s National Green Tribunal has found LG Polymers India liable for loss of life, negative effects on public health and ecological damage caused by the gas leak at a plant in the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh in early May. The court ordered the company to reimburse the compensation paid by the state government and cover medical costs. The plant operated without the necessary environmental clearances. The court therefore also directed the state government to identify those who allowed this to happen. In an earlier interim decision, the court had already imposed a fine of 500 million rupees ($6.6 million) on the company. This is also to be spent on compensation to the victims and the restoration of the environment. [NDTV] [Straits Times 1]

Meanwhile, at least ten people were killed, and dozens injured on 3 June in an explosion at a pesticides factory in Gujarat state. Many factories are currently resuming operations as India's coronavirus lockdown is eased. [Indian Express]

At the same time, Indian authorities, in particular the Ministry of Environment, have been approving almost 50 large industrial projects such as highways and hydropower projects that could have substantial environmental effects via online video calls, without taking the proper procedural steps. This worries local populations, who normally need to get involved, and environmental protection organizations due to the incalculable risk that may come with the approvals. Examining environmental impact assessments, reviewing concerns raised by affected people and assessing mitigation plans properly usually require field visits and extensive consultation. [Straits Times 2]

Pakistan: Supreme Court reminds government to take proper action against Covid-19

(ls) The Supreme Court of Pakistan has confronted the government in its management of the corona virus outbreak and demanded the passing of appropriate national legislation instead of ruling by executive orders which negatively affect the rights of the people. One justice asked why the legislatures cannot function when other institutions are functioning. Two Supreme Court judges have tested positive for the corona virus. [Dawn]

Pakistan and IMF agree on increase of salaries of government employees

(dql) Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have reached an agreement to increase the salaries of government employees in the upcoming 2020-21 fiscal year budget. The IMF also consented to increase the pension of retired employees and to waive raising electricity bills and gas tariff till October. The budget is to be unveiled in this week. [Eurasian Times]

The agreement came after Pakistan had rejected demands of the IMF that Pakistan freezes government employees’ salaries in the budget 2020-2021 to adhere to the fiscal consolidation path which the IMF believes to be necessary in the face of a high and unsustainable public debt that is expected to reach 90% of the total value of the national economy. [Ary News]

Sri Lanka: Supreme Court approves parliament dissolution

(ls/cm) The Supreme Court of Sri Lanka has refused to annul the dissolution of the parliament. Civil groups and opposition party petitioners had filed the motion, arguing that the constitution mandates a parliamentary sitting within three months. President Rajapaksa on 2 March dissolved the parliament and called for snap elections on 25 April. However, the Election Commission postponed the elections to 20 June due to the coronavirus outbreak. Meanwhile, the Election Commission announced that the election will be postponed another time. [NY Times] [The Week]

Sri Lanka: President Rajapaksa creates security task force 

(cm) Sri Lankan President Rajapaksa has created a task force of 13 military chiefs with the responsibility to maintain national security, discipline and a lawful society. The task force shall deal with battling drug crimes, investigating prisons and taking legal action on antisocial activities within and outside Sri Lanka. Critics question if this brings back military rule. Some of the task force members have been accused of war crimes. [The Times]

Bangladesh: First Rohingya refugee dies of Covid-19

(ls) In the world’s largest refugee settlement in Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh, the first Rohingya refugee has died of Covid-19, triggering new fears that the novel coronavirus could spread more widely in the overcrowded camps with 60,000 to 90,000 people per square kilometer. At least 29 Rohingya have tested positive for the virus so far since the first case was detected in mid-May. Bangladesh as a whole has seen a spike in infections in recent weeks.

Bangladesh: With a 6% growth forecast, Bangladesh is set to be world’s fastest growing economy

(yo) Bangladesh expects to see at least 6% of economic growth this year, being set apart as an outlier in the midst of the pandemic where most countries are anticipating a severe recession. The country is the world’s second largest clothing exporter, with 80% of export profits coming from ready-made garment. The positive outlook does not signify Bangladesh’s economy is completely immune from the coronavirus. Orders worth $3.2 billion have been postponed or canceled since March and with the progression of Covid-19, expenditure will increase in various forms of infrastructure as health and agriculture. [The Print]

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Malaysian politics in turmoil

(lm) Observers of Malaysian politics last week witnessed a see-saw battle for parliamentary majority between Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin and his predecessor and ex-mentor Dr Mahathir Mohamad. On Friday, Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) vice-president Jugah Muyang left the opposition to back up Prime Minister Muhyiddin, only one day after Malaysian Deputy Works Minister Shahruddin Salleh had issued his resignation and signalled his support for Mahathir on Thursday. [The Straits Times 1] [The Strait Times 2]

The unrelenting twist between the two politicians has left the country with a dysfunctional government, as both try to woo lawmakers from the opposing camp in a bid to garner a comfortable majority in Parliament. While Dr Mahathir must try to deprive hitherto-PM Muhyiddin of the bare minimum needed for a simple majority in Parliament (112 out of 222 MPs), the incumbent needs to increase the number of his lawmakers to stabilise his administration. However, it remains unclear how many seats Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin’s administration commands, after the Parliament had been limited to a one-day session in May, barring a confidence vote against Muhyiddin. [Asia in Review No. 20, May/2020,3]

Under the National Alliance (Perikatan Nasional, PN), parliamentary debates in March and May have so far been cancelled out of fears over COVID-19, leaving the Muhyiddin administration's majority untested. Divisions had deepened when former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad insisted, he and his key allies remained in control of the party despite their effective sacking a day earlier.] [Asia in Review, No. 22, June/2020, 1]

On his first day back in office after completing his 14-day quarantine period, Malaysia PM Muhyiddin Yassin sacked two allies of predecessor Mahathir Mohamad. The expulsion is the latest in a series of power moves by Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin to consolidate power and to clean up PPBM of those who support former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, commentators say. In a statement issued on Monday, PAS secretary-general Takiyuddin Hassan confirmed that the political coalition within Malaysia's ruling alliance Perikatan Nasional (PN) is prepared to face the 15th general election. [Channel News Asia] [The Strait Times 3] [The Strait Times 4]

Political observers say that the Barisan Nasional alliance and its linchpin, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) – defeated in the 2018 polls – are likely to benefit. UMNO president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi in a Facebook post on Wednesday dismissed any allegations of a plot to overthrow Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin. The announcement followed on a visit by former Prime Minister Najib Razak to Ahmad Zahid's home on Tuesday night. UMNO in February had backed Tan Sri Muhyiddin (PPBM) in order to oust the Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition led by Dr Mahathir Mohamad [The Strait Times 5]

Currently a lawmaker and a member of UMNO, Malaysia’s former leader Najib Razak in a Facebook post on Wednesday warned of a “high chance” of snap elections if the country's politics continue to be in turmoil, further suggesting that health ministry and Election Commission should start drafting SOPs for such an eventuality. That scenario, however, is only possible if Muhyiddin, following defeat in a no-confidence vote, advises the king to dissolve parliament. [Bloomberg]

Malaysia: First 1MDB-linked corruption trial closes

(lm) On Friday, the first of Najib Razak’s five corruption trials wrapped up, with lawyers of Malaysia’s former prime minister in their final rebuttal painting the defendant as the victim of a scam and misrepresentation by the fugitive financier Low Taek Jho, and other “rogue bankers”. The trial judge, Justice Mohd Nazlan Ghazali, is now expected to analyse some 2,000 pages of submissions before coming to a verdict on July 28. The trial commenced in April last year. [SCMP] [The Straits Times]

Malaysian ex-leader Najib Razak faces a total of 42 counts of corruption, money-laundering and abuse of power spanning five different cases tied to 1MBD. His most significant trial begins on August 28, centring on allegations that hundreds of millions of dollars linked to the state fund had been funnelled into his personal bank accounts during his tenure as prime minister from 2009 to 2018. [The Straits Times 2]

In an interview on Saturday, Malaysia’s Finance Minister Tengku Zafrul Aziz said that the government would not be willing to accept even compensation of US$3 billion from Goldman Sachs in an out-of-court settlement over its role in the scandal. [SCMP]

Malaysia: Reviewing a change in policy for foreign workers post Covid-19

(cm) The Senior Minister (Defense) Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob states there will be significant changes by relying on local workers, instead of foreign workers, to combat the entry of illegal immigrants. Malaysia has an inflow of foreign workers in the tourism, construction, manufacturing and agricultural sectors. Though with Covid-19, the unemployment rate increased, limited sanitation systems and healthcare spread the virus to the Malaysian population. [The Diplomat] [New Straits Times]

Philippines: Protests flare over new Anti-Terror-Law

(mp) Nationwide several protests were held just hours after the House of Representatives had approved a controversial anti-terror bill [Original Bill] [AiR No. 9, March/2020, 1], leading to the arrest of seven students in Cebu city. While President Duterte stressed the necessity to fight terrorist movements urgently, opponents of the law fear an abuse of power to crackdown on dissidents. They are concerned that an expansion of the term “terrorism” will culminate in a law against critics of the President rather than a law protecting from terrorist movements. In the past, Duterte administration officials had toyed with the idea of declaring martial law during the Covid-19 response. [The Diplomat]

The bill expands the scope of warrantless arrests and allows authorities to detain suspects for 24 days without charge. It is likely that the opposition will question the legality of the bill before the Supreme Court. [CNN Philippines] [The Diplomat]

Philippines: UN report criticizes permission to kill in war on drugs

(mp) A new United Nations (UN) report published on Thursday condemns the violation of human rights in the Philippines’ so-called “war on drugs,” waged since Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte ordered a crackdown on drug crime in 2016. The report explains that some statements from the highest levels of government had “risen to the level of incitement to violence” and that the “vilification of dissent is being increasingly institutionalised”, leading to “systematic extrajudicial killings with near impunity” for law enforcement officials. [OHCHR] [SCMP]

The “war on drugs” has taken the lives of 8,663 people, according to conservative data provided by the government. As reported by the UN, only one person has been convicted of murder. The UN is urging for an independent investigation of the killings. [BBC]

Philippines: Hit by surge of Facebook fake accounts

(mp) Thousands of duplicate Facebook profiles of students and journalists have appeared in the Philippines over the weekend, likely created by a professional internet troll farm. The accounts were easily distinguishable due to their lack of profile information; however, some were used to threaten and verbally attack their correspondent students.

Opponents of President Duterte expressed their concern that after the passing of the new security bill (as reported above), Duterte plans to intimidate his political opponents or tries to create evidence against them to drown out rising critics. The Department of Justice has announced an investigation; results are expected in a week. Facebook condemned the incident. [Washington Post]

Singapore reveals measures for voting during COVID-19, as July poll speculation increases

(lm) Singapore’s Elections Department (ELD) on Monday unveiled a set of measures that will be put in place to ensure that the country’s upcoming general election does not compromise public health. The department’s announcement followed requests by opposition parties in recent weeks for clearer guidelines for the safe conduct of the polls during the COVID-19 pandemic. The special measures set out on Monday will complement the contingency plans written into a new law the government passed in May for elections amid the coronavirus outbreak. [Asia in Review, No. 18, May/2020, 1] [The Straits Times]

The announcement comes on the heels of rumours that Premier Minister Lee Hsien Loong may call a general election in July, soon after circuit breaker measures currently in place are further eased. [SCMP]

Singapore: Disabling order issued over Facebook page

(cm/lm) Facebook on Monday issued a statement saying that the regulations of Singapore’s anti-fake news were severe and would oppress the freedom of speech. The announcement came after Singaporean Minister for Communications and Information Iswaran had directed the Protection from Online Falsehoods and Manipulation Act (POFMA) Office to order the social media platform to block Singapore users' access to the National Times Singapore (NTS). Operated by anti-government activist and dissident Alex Tan, the Facebook page on May 15 had published a post claiming “that every criticism of the government had been outlawed under disinformation law.” After the page did not comply with a correction direction, which required the NTS to place warnings on the page to state its falsehoods, the disabling order was issued.[Bangkok Post], [Channel NewsAsia]

Thailand: Palang Pracharath's political infighting raises questions about the party’s political identity

(lm) Current justice minister and ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) heavyweight Somsak Thepsutin on Wednesday admitted that the upcoming restructuring within the coalition party could lead to a rotation of cabinet seats among PPRP executives. Somsak was among the 18 members of the party’s executive committee to submit their letter of resignation last Monday. [Bangkok Post]

On June 1, the biggest party in Thailand’s ruling coalition was hit by a walkout by 18 of its 34 executive members, paving the way for the election of a new party leader and executive committee. Observers belief the mass resignations to be a coordinated effort by seasoned parliamentarians from at least five fractions to move current Deputy Premier and PPRP chief strategist Prawit Wongsuwon up the party echelons. Despite being seen as a unifying figure within the party, the former army chief has also been involved in a number of blunders and controversies – most recently a scandal over 30-million-baht worth of "borrowed" luxury watches. In keeping with party regulations, Palang Pracharath Party must fix a date for a general assembly to elect a new executive committee within 45 days - by July 16, in this case. [Asia in Review No. 22, June/2020, 1]

More broadly, the political manoeuvring is considered to be the final chord after weeks of simmering broadsides against a technocratic-economic fraction centring around Deputy Prime Minister and economic czar Somkid Jatusripitak, and his allies, the finance minister and hitherto party leader Uttama Savanayana and Sontirat Sontijirawong, the party’s secretary-general and energy minister. [Nikkei Asian Review]

A former close aide to ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Jatusripitak was reinstated as deputy prime minister following a cabinet reshuffle mid-2015 to rejuvenate a then-ailing economy. Thus, the Somkid-led technocratic faction was pivotal to the party's launch before the 2019 general election by giving a civilian face to the military junta. Cultivating ties between the junta and Thailand’s oligarchs, Somkid and his allies were the economic and finance policy architects behind the Public-private program unveiled in 2016 to boost the provincial economy. [Nikkei Asian Review 2]

As the country continues to struggles to weather the economic knock-on effects of the coronavirus, the government might again seek assistance from the country’s richest tycoons to help ease Thailand’s financial woes. In the course of the weekend, some Thai industry leaders were quick to rally behind the Somkid-led fraction and voiced their concerns about a potential hiccup in policy continuity following the purge of the economic team. [Bangkok Post 2]

On Monday, then, the Siam Commercial Bank’s Economic Intelligence Centre (EIC) further revised downward its economic projection for this year to GDP contraction in 2020 of 7.3 per cent. [Thailand Business News]

Thailand: Senate approves unprecedented stimulus package, despite concerns about lack of transparency

(lm) Thailand’s Senate on Sunday approved a 1.9 trillion-baht economic support package, the country’s biggest-ever cash injection, to ease the impact of the coronavirus. The legislation, comprising three executive decrees, include a government plan to borrow 1 trillion baht to finance public health improvements and central bank measures worth another 900 billion aimed at market stabilisation and boosting purchasing power. Earlier on Sunday, the decrees had sailed through the House of Representatives, albeit members of the opposition largely abstaining from voting. [Bangkok Post 1] [SCMP]

The 1 trillion-baht stimulus package will be overseen by the Finance Ministry; 600 billion baht of which have been earmarked as financial aid for farmers and informal workers whose businesses have been battered by the pandemic. From the remaining 400 million baht, each of the 273 government MPs will be allocated 80 million baht and the 207 opposition lawmakers will receive 40 million baht each to be dispensed for relief efforts. Bangkok Post 2

Despite the ruling coalition’s seeming support for a special House committee to ensure spending transparency and accountability over the borrowing, opposition MPs voiced their concern about the lack of transparency in how the stimulus package will be doled out and criticised the government for having failed to create an anti-graft net to prevent policy-oriented corruption. Bangkok Post 3

Thailand: Rights group says exiled Thai activist was abducted in Cambodia

(jn/lm) In a statement issued on Friday, Human Rights Watch said that Thai pro-democracy activist and dissident Wanchalearm Satsaksit has been abducted in Phnom Penh on Thursday evening. Citing witnesses and apartment security cameras, the rights group said Satsaksit was kidnapped at gunpoint and manhandled into an unmarked vehicle as he walked on a street in front of his apartment in the Cambodian capital. [HRW]

Associated with the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship - commonly known as the “Red Shirts” - political movement, Satsaksit fled to Cambodia in 2014 to escape criminal charges for criticising the former Thai junta. From self-imposed exile, he continued to be politically active, operating a Facebook page critical of the Thai government. In 2018, an arrest warrant was issued by the Thai police alleging Satsaksit for violating the Computer Crime Act and committing lèse-majesté. [TIME]

According to human rights activists, Wanchalearm Satsaksit’s suspected abduction is the latest string in a series of disappearances of Southeast Asian political activists living in exile. In recent years, Thai authorities have aggressively pursued the apprehension of 29 pro-democracy activists who took refuge in neighbouring countries. Laos, Vietnam, and Cambodia have repeatedly been approached by the Thai government to extradite these exiled activists, at least eight of which have become victims of enforced disappearance in 2016-2018. [HRW 2] [Bangkok Post 1]

The family of Wanchalearm Satsaksit on Sunday called on the government and international agencies to help find the activist. Rangsiman Rome, a Move Forward Party lawmaker and spokesman of the House committee on Legal Affairs, Justice and Human Rights said he would ask the committee on Wednesday to consider summoning state agencies to provide information on Mr Wanchalearm's abduction. [Bangkok Post 2]

Protests flared outside the Cambodian embassy in Bangkok on Monday demanding an investigation and accused the Thai state of orchestrating the kidnapping. Throughout the weekend, Cambodian police as well as their Thai counterparts have remained tight-lipped on the activist’s whereabouts. The Cambodian police on Friday denied any knowledge of the abduction and refused to open an investigation into the alleged disappearance. [Bangkok Post 3] [France24] [SCMP]

Thailand: Thai Army whistleblower faces Martial Court after exposing graft in the Thai army

(lm) In a press briefing on Thursday, Thai Army spokesman Winthai Suvaree said the army had issued a military court warrant to arrest whistle-blower Sgt Narongchai Intharakawee for dereliction of duty. While denying allegations about mistreatment of Sgt. Narongchai, Suvaree said an internal investigation had found grounds for his allegations, and had forwarded the case to the National Anti-Corruption Commission. [Bangkok Post]

Serving as a budget clerk at the in the Army’s Ordnance Materiel Rebuild Center, Sergeant Narongchai Intharakawi had filed several complaints on a new army whistle-blowing hotline that had been established in February to help crack-down on abuse, corruption, and exploitation in the military’s ranks. However, not only did he see no action taken on his complaints which involved staff allowances at the ordnance centre, he also received death threats and faced a disciplinary inquiry for allegedly undermining unity within the army and disrespecting a superior. Fearing for his safety, he absconded from his barracks in March and sought protection from the parliament’s Committee on Legal Affairs, Justice, and Human Rights. [The Straits Times] [HRW]

Vietnam: Vietnamese parliament greenlights free trade agreement with EU 

(jn) The National Assembly on Monday ratified the European Union Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), a deal that builds on trade agreements signed in Hanoi last June and approved by the European Parliament in February. The EVFTA, which is expected to take effect in July, will reduce or eliminate over 99% of tariffs on goods traded between the parties’ markets and commits Vietnam to standards for sustainable development, including improving its human rights record, and protecting labour rights. There is also a transition period in some areas of up to ten years. (AiR No. 21, May/2020, 4)

With Singapore being the only other member state of the Association of Southeast Asian nations holding a free-trade agreement with the EU, the EVFTA is expected to provide Vietnam with an edge over China’s growing economic power. The World Bank said last month that the trade agreement could increase the country’s GDP by 2.4 per cent and its exports by 12 per cent by 2030, lifting hundreds of thousands of people out of poverty and giving the economy a much-needed post-pandemic stimulus. [Reuters]

Vietnam: Jailed Australian democracy activist “disappeared” inside Vietnam’s prison system

(lm) Vietnamese-born Australian Chau Van Kham, who had been convicted of terrorism by a Vietnamese court is believed to have disappeared inside Vietnam’s prison system. After consular visits scheduled for the past four months were all scrubbed out of concerns over the spread of the coronavirus, no one from his family or the Australian consulate has been allowed to see or speak with him since February. [The Guardian]

Chau Van Kham was arrested in January 2019 and in a controversial trial sentenced to 12 years imprisonment on anti-government charges over his membership of pro-democracy organisation Viet Tan. While being described by the United Nations as "a peaceful organization advocating for democratic reform", the Viet Tan political movement was formally proscribed as a terrorist organisation by the Vietnamese government in 2016. [The Guardian 2]

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China: Advancing space technology

(dql) End of May China successfully deployed a pair of satellites launched aboard a Long March 2D. Among the two satellites, the Gaofen satellite is believed to be used for military purposes in addition to civilian applications including observations for disaster prevention and relief, climate change monitoring, geographical mapping, environmental and resource surveying as well as precision agriculture support. [Rocket Rundown]

For an account on China’s recent leaps in its efforts to advance as a space power to catch up with the USA and Russia, see Vidya Sagar Reddy at [East Asia Forum].

China-USA relations: Trump drops ban on Chinese passenger flights to USA

(dql) The Trump administration on Friday shifted from a previous plan to outright ban Chinese passenger airlines from flying to the U.S. from mid-June on to limiting the number of flights of Chinese carriers to the U.S. to two per week. [Fortune]

The moves came after Beijing announced to permit more foreign airlines to resume services to China from June 8 on. Beijing’s move itself was a response to the announcement of the US Department of Transportation to ban all commercial passenger flights to the U.S. by Chinese carriers from June 16 on, or even sooner depending on President Trump’s discretion. [CNBC]

In late March China's air authority issued a notice that Chinese and foreign airlines could maintain just one passenger flight per week on one route to any given country and that carriers could fly no more than the number of flights they were flying on March 12. However, as U.S. passenger airlines had stopped all flights by March 12, they were effectively precluded from reinstating scheduled passenger flights to China. [Washington Post]

For a brief outlook of China-USA relation for 2021, see Dingding Chen in [The Diplomat] who foresees a failure of Trumps repressive measures against China which will eventually lead to an adjustment of his China policy and to an improvement of Sino-US relations in 2021.

US ban on Chinese students with military links

(dql) A proclamation signed be President Trump at the end of May went into effect last week, banning Chinese graduate students and researchers who have ties with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) from entering the United States. The move is part of US efforts to stop China from using graduate students to steal intellectual property and technology from America. The ban affects 3,000 to 4,000 Chinese international students. 

Critics reject the ban arguing that it risks to jeopardize American universities’ capacity to conduct cross-cutting research by cutting off American universities from Chinese students’ contribution to science and innovation. [Voice of America] [The Hill]

China-UK relations I: Tensions rise over Johnson’s citizenship offer to Hong Kong residents

(dql) China-UK relations remain tense over the latest developments related to Hong Kong. In response to Beijing’s push for a national security law in Hong Kong [AiR No. 22, June/2020, 1], British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced last week that the United Kingdom will reform its immigration rules to provide as many as 3 million residents of its former colony a path to obtain residency and citizenship in case the Chinese government would enact the law. [Telegraph]

China was quick to condemn the plan accusing London of Cold War and colonialist mentality and urging it to “immediately stop interfering in Hong Kong affairs and China's internal affairs. Otherwise, the UK will lift the stone and hit its own feet." [Global Times]

For an assessment of Johnson’s move see Patrick Winter at [The Guradian] calling it “a big gamble” of the Prime Minister, both with regards to foreign policy as in confronts China as well as to domestic politics due to uncertain support among conservative members and pro-Brexit voters within his party.

China-UK relations II: British coronavirus vaccine secrets targeted by Chinese hackers

(dql) Jeremy Fleming, head of the Government Communications Headquarters of the United Kingdom, revealed that hackers from hostile states, including China, were targeting the UK’s health infrastructure and research labs in an attempt to steal the secrets of a potential coronavirus vaccine. [The Guardian]

In an earlier Covid-19 related development, the UK government dismissed as spurious claims made by Richard Dearlove, former head of the British foreign intelligence service, that the coronavirus escaped from a lab in China by accident. [Telegraph][Daily Mail]

Meanwhile, China’s government released a lengthy report on its response to the pandemic hailing its success in curbing Covid-19, reiterating that it neither delayed nor covered up anything and attacking the USA which in order “[t]o disguise their inadequate response to COVID-19, […] insanely smeared and slandered China.” [CTV News]

China-Japan relations: Visit of Xi Jinping unlikely to take place in 2020

(mp) Amid heightened tensions between the United States and China, the visit of China’s leader Xi Jinping to Japan is hanging in the balance. Initially planned to be held in spring, the meeting was postponed due to the coronavirus crisis.

However, after China announced to impose its controversial security bill over Hong Kong, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga declared to reconsider Xi’s visit. Hong Kong democracy activists had urged the Japanese government to “carefully consider” the invitation of Xi. While China hopes to utilize the trip to Japan to impress the world with its success in overcoming the coronavirus outbreak, Tokyo is diplomatically troubled between both superpowers China and the United States. Japan faces pressure not to thwart its key security ally while also being aware of its own economic dependence on China. [Nikkei] [Japan Times]

This fear of friction was expressed when Japan rejected to join the United States, Britain, and other countries in condemning the imposition of the mentioned Hong Kong security law, leading to harsh critics from involved countries. Later, Abe clarified that he was “deeply concerned” about the latest developments in Hong Kong. He stressed the outstanding importance of Hong Kong as a partner and defended Japan’s ‘independent’ position by stressing the hope for a joint statement at the G7 meeting in September. [Kyodo] [Reuters]

Cross-strait relations: Chinese fighter jets enter Taiwan’s airspace

(dql) Chinese Su-30 fighter jets this Tuesday briefly entered Taiwan’s airspace, prompting the island's air force to issue verbal warnings and "active responses" to drive away the intruders. [Reuters]

Beijing’s move came as Taiwan announced that its largest annual live-fire drills, the Han Kuang exercises, will be conducted in July and September with a focus on testing the country's asymmetric capabilities to ward off hostile forces at sea and along its beaches involving all three branches of Taiwan's military. [Focus Taiwan]

In an earlier development last week, the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s only entirely home-built aircraft carrier Shandong was performing sea trials testing weapons and equipment as well as enhancing training of the crew after it had left her home port of Dalian in late May on her maiden voyage for training since being commissioned five months ago.

While military experts consider the Shandong inferior to US Navy counterparts, she nevertheless reflects China’s rise to a regional naval power amid tensions with the USA and others over trade, Taiwan and the South China Sea. [Defense News] [Asia Times]

Taiwan-Japan relations: Taiwan reiterates sovereignty over Diaoyutai Islands

(ef) Following a Japanese municipality’s announcement to hold votes on changing the name of the Diaoyutai Islands, the Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated that the Diaoyutai Islands were “undoubtedly inherent parts of the Republic of China,” adding that any Japanese unilateral action could harm regional security and stability; thus, restraint should be exercised. [Focus Taiwan]

The Diaoyutai Islands are also known in Japan as the Senkaku Islands. They are uninhabited islands in the East China Sea and claimed by China, Taiwan, and Japan, respectively.

North Korea: North Korea answers second liaison phone call from South Korea amid leaflet tensions

(yh) North Korea expressed anger about North Korean defectors and South Korean activists sending balloons that carry propaganda leaflets criticizing the North, one-dollar bills and USB memory sticks to attract North Korean citizens. Kim Yo jong, Kim Jong-un’s sister sent a statement threatening to close the inter-Korean liaison office, scrap an inter-Korean military tension reduction agreement as she accused South Korea of violating peace agreements banning hostilities against each other. [The Korea Herald]

In response, South Korea announced that it will push for new laws to ban activists from flying anti-Pyongyang leaflets over the border. [Market Watch]

India’s candidature to the UNSC 

(dql) India last week laid out the priorities of its campaign to secure election as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. Speaking on the occasion of the launch of the campaign brochure Minister for External Affairs Jaishankar identified those priorities for the next two-years term 2021-2022 as “new opportunities for progress, an effective response to international terrorism, reforming the multilateral system, comprehensive approach to international peace and security, and promoting technology with a human touch as a driver of solutions” and presented the “five S's” guiding the Indian approach to the international community – “Samman (Respect), Samvad (Dialogue), Sahyog (Cooperation), and Shanti (Peace), to create conditions for universal Samriddhi (Prosperity)."

Ten years after the India’s last election to the UN Security Council, this year’s candidature is expected to succeed without problems as India is the only endorsed candidate of the Asia-Pacific Group. The election is scheduled for June 17. It would be India's eighth term on the UN Security Council. [Telegraph India]

India-China border tensions

(lf/ls/dql) The People´s Liberation Army of China has held a large-scale drill at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh. This came after talks between India and China over the weekend had resulted in an agreement to not let the tensions escalate into a dispute. India reportedly aimed to demand from China that the two militaries would go back to the positions that they had held before the stand-off commenced in late April [Asia in Review No 20 /2020, 3] and for the Chinese side to not make any new territorial claims. The removal of new constructions along the border was another issue to be discussed. The outcome of the meeting has apparently been limited to reaching a better understanding of each other’s positions. [Hindustan Times] [South China Morning Post]

The LAC is the demarcation line separating Chinese controlled Kashmir from Indian controlled Kashmir and is about 2,000 km (according to China) to 3,488 km (according to India) long. [Indian Express]

Prior to the talks on the weekend, China has appointed Lieutenant General Xu Qiling as new army commander for its Western Theatre Command ground forces which is responsible for the Sino-India border. Prior to this post, Xu - handpicked by President Xi - was Commander of the Eastern Theater Command Ground Force, Deputy Commander of the Central Command and Commander of the 79th Group Army. The latter is part of the Northern Theater Command, tasked with countering the threat of Soviet armor in the Far East and said to be provided the best equipment and training available in the  PLA. Xu was also chief of staff at the former 54th Army Corps, known as an elite PLA fighting force involved in the crackdown on a Tibetan uprising in 1959 and the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989. [Economic Times] [India TV News]

Reflecting the heightened tensions, a write-up in Chinese state-run media outlet Global Times blamed biased Indian media for considerably contributing to misunderstandings between the two Asian powers and urged them to “shake off Western influence and think independently so that they can best maintain India's interests.” [Global Times]

India-Pakistan: Protests in Kashmir

(lf/ls) In India, protests continue in the Indian-administered part of Kashmir after Indian forces killed at least nine rebels, including three commanders. Several hundred people clashed with Indian security forces as they tried to march to the area of fighting. 

The situation in Kashmir has been very tense in recent months, as daily fights along the Line of Control between Pakistan and Indian controlled Kashmir have been reported.  India has accused Pakistan to arm and train Anti-Indian rebels, which has been denied by Pakistan. In turn, Pakistan condemned the killing of the nine Kashmiri rebels, referring to it as an act of "state terrorism". [Aljazeera] [Dawn]

The territory has been contested since both countries gained independence from India in 1947. Since 1989, the conflict has caused the deaths of more than 70,000 people of which the majority have been civilians. Tensions have been especially high since protest arose in Kashmir after Prime Minister Modi renounced the autonomy of the region.

New espionage charges between India and Pakistan

(lf) Two men have been arrested for espionage in the Indian province of Rajastan. They are accused of sharing classified information about the Indian army with Pakistan. [Economic Times]. This comes after last week’s expulsion of two officials working for the Pakistan high commission in New Delhi on the base of espionage. [Asia in Review No. 22, June/ 2020]

India-USA relations: US investigation into Indian digital service tax

(dql) In a move expected to complicate Indian-US trade relations, US President Trump has initiated investigations into digital services taxes (DST) that have been either adopted or are being considered by ten trading partners of the USA including India. 

Trump’s move comes as the Indian government in April imposed a new tax of 2% on digital services rendered in India against payments collected abroad. The levy is restricted to non-resident companies and targets mainly American digital services giants.

The investigations into the impact of this tax on the US economy could end up in retaliatory trade actions as they are conducted under Section 301 of the Trade Act, 1974, the same provision that the Trump administration used to impose an additional 25% tariff on 50 billion USD worth of imports from China in 2018. [Hindustan Times]

India and Australia sign defense pact and supply chain agreements

(ls) Australia and India have launched their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership by signing two defense agreements as Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a virtual meeting last week. A Mutual Logistics Support Arrangement grants reciprocal access to military bases and aims at enhancing military interoperability. A Science and Technology Implementing Arrangement shall improve the collaboration between defense science and technology research organizations of the two countries. [Defence Connect]

In addition, the two countries agreed to develop new supply chains in key industries, such as rare earths and minerals. This development comes at a time when China has imposed an 80 percent tariff on Australian barley and reduced meat imports. This was largely viewed as a retaliation for the Australian government’s demand for an independent international inquiry into the origins and spread of the coronavirus. [South China Morning Post]

However, the supply chain agreement has also been criticized due to broad and under-enforced labor laws in India. Critics say that Australia should insist on better enforcement of international labor standards before entering into such form of agreements to reduce what is often referred to as modern slavery. [The Conversation]

Bangladesh MP held in Kuwait over ‘human trafficking links’

(yo) Bangladeshi member of parliament (MP) Mohammad Shahid Islam has been arrested in Kuwait due to suspected involvement in human trafficking and money laundering. The matter was brought to light after 26 Bangladeshis were killed, with 11 others injured by human traffickers in Libya. Shahid’s wife, also MP, has claimed the news on his arrest is not true. Bangladesh’s Anti-Corruption Commission has discovered that Shahid had accumulated Tk 1,400 crore through human trafficking and has siphoned off money to other countries. The Kuwaiti government is still investigating and has not officially stated what actions they will take. [The Daily Star]

Shahid and his partners sent more than 20,000 Bangladeshi workers to Kuwait making $163 million. Among other charges against Shahid, he allegedly bribed Kuwaiti government officials to gain contracts and privileges for his business. [The Gulf News]

Cambodia: PM Hun Sen again denies Chinese naval base, 

(jn) Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen on Monday denied that his government was granting exclusive access rights to the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) at the Ream naval base, an unresolved issue that has received critical scrutiny by ASEAN neighbors and the US. Last July, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) had reported on a purported secret deal between China and Cambodia that would have a Chinese company construct new piers in exchange for a PLAN 30-year-long presence close to the South China Sea and beyond through the Strait of Malacca to the Indian Ocean. Such a base would form part of a still evolving network of military and economic facilities along the primary maritime routes of southern Asia, often called China’s “string of pearls”. Concern among the US leadership already lead Vice President Pence to pen a cautionary letter to Hun Sen in 2018.

Hun Sen justified his public stance by stating that the constitution would not allow for foreign military bases, but any interested country could ask for permission to dock with its navy ships. In his careful wording he rather invited “anyone who wants to hold exercises on Cambodian territory” and said his country would “welcome aid from the US, France, Japan and China” to relocate a military training facility from Ream. He reiterated, that in order to build a new pier Cambodia would “need funds from China […] – but if you all want to give money, we would welcome it.”

A Chinese presence at Ream might not be so much a part of any blue water strategy given the relatively shallow waters and already existing outposts in the region, but it might have greater significance for China’s tense relationship with Vietnam whose claims to the South China Sea are just around the corner and who is already bristling at Chinese operations close to its coast.

In March, Cambodia hosted a joint military exercise with China that also become the country’s top defense equipment supplier. In 2017 it had cancelled an annual joint military exercise with the US scheduled for that and for the following year, which until now has not been resumed.

China is Cambodia’s biggest investor and closest political partner which in turn helps Cambodia offset the West’s distancing owing to its bleak human rights record. As the closest to Beijing among the ASEAN members Cambodia has also supported Beijing’s geopolitical positions, e.g. its territorial claims in the South China Sea. [The Diplomat 1] [The Diplomat 2] [Bangkok Post] [WSJ]

Malaysia: Rohingya migrants on Malaysian territorial waters

(cm) Off the northwest island of Langkawi, 269 Rohingya Migrants attempted to enter Malaysia on Monday morning. The border control authorities managed to detain the migrants, as the boat was too damaged to be sent back. Many migrants illegally travel to Malaysia to flee the conflicts of Myanmar, or poor refugee camp conditions in the Bangladesh, and head towards a nation that is predominantly Muslim. [The Jakarta Post] [Channel NewsAsia]

However, the COVID-19 virus highly impacted the overcrowded detention centres and unhygienic conditions. This posed a risk to the national security to Malaysian citizens, and vulnerability to detainees without international protection from the UNHCR. [Al Jazeera] [Amnesty International]

The government aimed at strengthening their security by coordinating with the Armed Forces, National Task Force and Malaysian border of Security Agency, to battle the influx of illegal migrants and undocumented workers. [New Straits Times]

Myanmar rejects cease-fire proposal from ethnic insurgent groups

(jn) Last Tuesday, the Myanmar military rejected to enter into cease-fire talks offered by three ethnic armed groups – the Arakan Army (AA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) – and announced to further retaliate recent rebel attacks, instead. The government’s announcement came only days after the AA had conducted a retaliatory attack against a border guard outpost in Rakhine state, leaving four dead and six people kidnapped. [Asia in Review, No. 22, June/2020, 1]

The government of State counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’ is seeking to bring an end to Myanmar’s ethnic conflict. However, so far only ten of the country’s 20-some ethnic armed groups have signed the 2015 Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), which the government insists on before the groups can participate in the peace talks. On Sunday, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) ruled out the possibility of signing the government’s ceasefire agreement this year. [Myanmar Times]

An analysis by Radio Free Asia (RFA) revealed that the armed conflict between government forces and the AA in Rakhine state has killed 257 civilians and injured 570 others between December 2018 and May of this year. [RFA 1] [RFA 2]

Philippine government reverses decision on VFA, citing geostrategic “developments” for change of heart

(lm) On Tuesday, Philippine Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin announced that the Philippines have temporarily suspended its decision to end the bilateral Visiting Forces Agreement with the United States. According to a diplomatic note sent to the U.S. ambassador to the Philippines, the six-month abrogation will be “extendible by the Philippines for another six months.” After that period, unless other action is taken, the Philippines’ government would revert to its original plan to terminate the agreement, which was first announced mid-February. [The Diplomat] [CNN][Asia in Review No. 6, February/2020, 2]

Experts cite two major developments for President Rodrigo Duterte’s reluctant recognition of the importance of security assistance from the United States. Firstly, the decision reflects Manila’s shifting geopolitical calculations as previous warming-ups with Beijing have proven unsuccessful and China’s strategic opportunism over the past three months has fuelled anxieties over Beijing’s expansionism. [SCMP] [CNN 2]

The decision further reflects that the Philippines recognise the importance of humanitarian assistance by the United States. Signed in 1988, the military pact facilitates comprehensive security and humanitarian cooperation between the two countries, giving US military aircraft and vessels free entry into the Philippines. As it provides the legal framework governing sustained and large-scale rotation of American troops on Philippine soil, the VFA has also enabled the Pentagon’s assistance in the Manila’s counterterror and domestic security operations. [NY Times]

We would greatly appreciate your feedback! Please send any feedback you have regarding this newsletter to: info@cpg-online.de 

Also, don't forget to Like CPG on Facebook, and browse our website for other updates and news!