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December 10, 2020 - Brief Issue 130

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Deadliest Day in the U.S.: Over 3,000 Covid-19 Deaths Recorded on Wednesday (Health & Science)

Canada Approves Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 Vaccine (Health & Science)

British Regulators Issue Warning About Pfizer Vaccine in People With History of Severe Allergic Reactions (Health & Science)

U.S. May Fall Short of Covid-19 Vaccine Doses in Spring (Health & Science)

U.N. Secretary General Denounces ‘Vaccine Nationalism’ (Around the World)

World Bank Chief: Global Recovery Will Be Slow (Around the World)

Asian Countries Struggle with New Waves of Virus (Around the World)

Much Activity and Confusion Over Multiplying Stimulus Proposals (U.S. Government & Politics)

Biden Pledges to Vaccinate 100 Million People and Reopen Schools in First 100 Days (U.S. Government & Politics)

Judge Blocks LA Outdoor Dining Ban (U.S. Government & Politics)

U.S. Job Openings Decline (U.S. Economy)

Ice Hockey Prompting Outbreaks; Closures Disappoint Northeasterners (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 15,391,701 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 289,431 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 5,889,896 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 209,372,157 tests. Worldwide, there have been 68,956,116 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,570,642 deaths. At least 44,433,419 people have recovered from the virus.

Deadliest Day in the U.S.: Over 3,000 Covid-19 Deaths Recorded on Wednesday

On Wednesday, the United States again broke a single-day record for Covid-19 deaths, reporting at least 3,011 new deaths. The record comes just a week after another daily deaths record of 2,885 deaths. The seven-day average for daily deaths, which can provide a more accurate measure than single-day reports, is now more than 2,200. All the while, hospitalizations continue to climb, with over 106,000 people currently hospitalized. The cumulative total deaths is nearing 300,000, and experts warn that this total could rise substantially over the next several months unless serious mitigation efforts are undertaken (NYT, Johns Hopkins, COVID Tracking Project).

Canada Approves Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 Vaccine

On Wednesday, Canada’s health department granted emergency authorization for the Covid-19 vaccine developed by Pfizer-BioNTech (WSJ, CNN Health). Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that Canada would receive an initial shipment of 249,000 doses by the end of the year and that vaccinations would begin sometime next week. Canada is the third country to approve the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, coming shortly after the U.K. and Bahrain and jumping ahead of regulators in the U.S. and Europe. The U.S. is expected to approve the vaccine later this week, while approval is anticipated in Europe at the end of the month.

British Regulators Issue Warning About Pfizer Vaccine in People With History of Severe Allergic Reactions

After two health care workers developed serious allergic reactions to the first dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine, British regulators advised hospitals to temporarily suspend vaccinations for people with a history of severe allergic reactions (WSJ, WaPo). In a statement, the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency “advised on a precautionary basis that people with a significant history of allergic reactions do not receive this vaccination, after two people with a history of significant allergic reactions responded adversely yesterday.” Health officials sought to reassure the public, saying that nurses and pharmacists who administer vaccines are trained to respond to allergic reactions. Typically, those with severe allergies are advised to consult with a physician before receiving even routine vaccines. Both individuals who experienced adverse reactions are reported to be recovering well. 

U.S. May Fall Short of Covid-19 Vaccine Doses in Spring

Despite its projections of being able to vaccinate most Americans against Covid-19 by May, the U.S. may fall short of necessary doses this spring (Politico). The federal government purchased 100 million doses each of vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna, the two vaccines likely to be approved imminently. However, due to strong international demand, the U.S. is unlikely to be able to order additional doses of the shots in time to vaccinate most of the country by late spring. The administration has reserved approximately 800 million doses from six manufacturers, but it is not yet clear whether all of these vaccines will succeed. Two companies – Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca – may have a chance at being authorized early next year if their clinical trials go according to plan. Dr. Moncef Slaoui, head of Operation Warp Speed, said he is optimistic that the U.S. would be able to reach its vaccination goals but admitted the success of these goals depended in part on the continued success of additional vaccine trials.

Some Covid-19 Vaccine Doses To Be Held in Reserve After Initial Approval

On Wednesday, a top official said that 2.9 million doses of the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine would go out around the country after the vaccine is authorized by the Food and Drug Administration (NYT). Another 2.9 million doses will later be sent out for booster shots, to be given three weeks after the first dose. Approximately 500,000 doses will be held in reserve. Gen. Gustave F. Perna, chief operating officer for Operation Warp Speed, said that the reserve is meant to provide a buffer as manufacturers, distributors and states refine their vaccine delivery process. Once these processes are running smoothly, he said, there will be no need for a reserve. The Food and Drug Administration is expected to make an authorization decision regarding the Pfizer vaccine within days, and distribution will begin soon after.

Intensive Care Units Near Capacity Across United States

According to federal data, nearly one-third of Americans live in areas with critically low ICU capacity, defined as less than 15% of ICU beds available (NYT). In many areas, particularly in the Midwest, South and Southwest, ICU beds are completely full or very close to being at capacity. Experts say that sustained high ICU occupancy puts strain on the system and may lead to a decrease in quality of care as hospitals and staff struggle to keep up with high caseloads. Although medical expertise in treating Covid-19 has improved since the spring, benefits for patients will be lost if they cannot access this care. Many experts and healthcare leaders are sounding the alarm about overfilled hospitals and heavy tolls on health care workers, asking residents to stay home as much as possible and to wear masks and practice physical distancing in public. Bonus Read: “New Data Reveal Which Hospitals Are Dangerously Full. Is Yours?” (NPR).

U.S. and U.K. Studies Find No Increase in Stillbirth or Preterm Birth During Pandemic

Two studies published on Monday in the medical journal JAMA found no increase in stillbirths or preterm births related to the pandemic (CIDRAP). Pregnant individuals have been known to be at higher risk for infectious diseases, including respiratory illnesses such as Covid-19, leading to concerns that the virus could cause a rise in poor birth outcomes.

In the JAMA study conducted in the U.K., researchers analyzed national and regional hospitalization data from the annual Hospital Episode Statistics database to determine whether there was an increase in stillbirths during the pandemic. Overall, there were 543 stillbirths recorded between April 1 and June 30 of this year, compared with 565 stillbirths during the same period last year, a difference which the researchers found to be not statistically different. This study contrasts with a smaller study from July, which reported a higher stillbirth rate in one London hospital earlier in the year. The authors of the JAMA study said that their new findings were “reassuring given the concerns about patients, including pregnant women, receiving fewer services or being hesitant to access health care during the pandemic.”

The U.S. study published in the same journal analyzed data from 2,992 deliveries at two Philadelphia hospitals between March and June 2020, comparing them with births from the same period in 2018 and 2019. Researchers found no increase in either stillborn deliveries or preterm live births during the pandemic period. The authors noted several study limitations, including examination of a single health system, a short timeframe and few stillbirths. They also noted a Danish study that reported a decrease in preterm birth rates during the pandemic period. Bonus Read: “FDA: Leave the Door Open to Covid-19 Vaccination for Pregnant and Lactating Health Workers,” (STAT).

Department of Health and Human Services to Reward Nursing Homes That Controlled Covid-19 Spread

Starting Wednesday, more than 9,000 nursing homes that have shown progress in controlling coronavirus infections will receive a share of the $523 million set aside by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) for incentive payments (WaPo). This is the first time such incentive programs have been used in nursing homes. HHS Secretary Alex Azar said that the incentive program should “assist nursing homes in battling Covid-19 and applying the right infection control practices.”

Not everyone believes the incentive program is having the intended effect. Since funds are based in part on nursing home infection rates in comparison to community infection rates, some critics say the program just rewards states with high community transmission. Terry Fulmer, president of the John A. Hartford Foundation and a member of a commission on coronavirus safety in nursing homes, said that all nursing homes “are desperate for additional financing,” adding that all nursing homes needed resources for protective equipment, staffing and testing. The American Health Care Association, on the other hand, was enthusiastic about the program, saying, “These incentive payments give our providers a fighting chance to contain and defeat this horrible virus, and further incentivizes nursing homes to take appropriate action.”

U.S. Faces Shortages of Personal Protective Equipment

In May, the U.S. government made a goal to stockpile 300 million N95 respirator masks over the following 90 days (WSJ). By mid-November, it had managed to accumulate only half that number. Amidst a surge, this raises concerns about running out of critical supplies. The U.S. also has not yet developed a centralized database to distribute medical gear, meaning that some facilities may face delays in receiving personal protective equipment. In September, the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) made recommendations to ease supply shortages, but so far these recommendations have not been met. Representatives from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) have said the GAO recommendations are outdated and that the stockpile is sufficient for current needs. Nonetheless, some health systems have said they are having difficulty ordering and receiving enough supplies, and officials have expressed concern that the supply will be quickly depleted as Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations continue to rise. 

Bonus Reads: “‘Why would we ever go back?’: Covid-Driven Shift to Remote Cancer Clinical Trials Will Likely Outlast the Pandemic,’” (STAT); “How to End This Pandemic, and Prepare for the Next One,” (NYT).

Around the World

U.N. Secretary General Denounces ‘Vaccine Nationalism’

António Guterres, the secretary general of the United Nations denounced “vaccine nationalism” on Wednesday and emphasized the need for equity in vaccine access between wealthy and poor nations (WaPo). “The covid-19 pandemic has had a disproportionate impact on vulnerable groups, including front line workers, people with disabilities, older people, women and girls, and minorities,” Guterres said. “It has thrived because poverty, inequality, discrimination, the destruction of our natural environment and other human rights failures have created enormous fragilities in our societies.” Guterres emphasized that world leaders need to work together to deploy a vaccine to vulnerable populations. He called for more than $4.2 billion to fund the distribution of a World Health Organization-approved coronavirus vaccine in African countries that lack the resources to compete with wealthier countries. “It’s true we are seeing vaccine nationalism moving with full speed,” Guterres said. “If Africa is not properly supported, we will not be able to fight the pandemic anywhere effectively.”

World Bank Chief: Global Recovery Will Be Slow

World Bank President David Malpass said that it will take two or three years for global output to return to pre-pandemic levels after the coronavirus is controlled with the help of vaccines (WSJ). Even as some advanced economies are recovering more quickly than projected, many developing economies are lagging behind due to a lack of tourism and remittances from their workers in richer countries drying up, Malpass said in an interview at the Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council summit on Tuesday. The pandemic has thrown nearly 100 million people into extreme poverty.

Asia

Asian Countries Struggle with New Waves of Virus 

Some Asian countries that were initially successful at containing the spread of Covid-19 are now struggling to contain second and third waves of infections. On Wednesday, South Korean President Moon Jae-in called an emergency meeting after the country hit a nine-month peak of 686 cases (WSJ). Officials in South Korea have started to use shipping containers as makeshift hospitals as they run out of hospital beds (Reuters). In Japan, authorities recorded the highest daily total to date, with 2,810 new infections. Vietnam reported community infections for the first time in almost three months and authorities suspended all inbound commercial flights. Hong Kong had seen daily infections as low as the single digits but now cases are surging past 100. Authorities in the city have reintroduced limits on dine-in restaurants and closed gyms. Several regions of Malaysia have seen cases double within a month, prompting lockdowns. While the numbers of daily infections in these countries are still low compared to those seen in the U.S. and Europe, the uptick in cases comes after life had returned to pre-pandemic normalcy. The new waves of infection in these countries show that continued vigilance in testing, contact tracing, social distancing, and mask wearing is critical until populations can be vaccinated. 

In India, the Pandemic is Putting Pollution Control on the Backburner

As India continues to battle the coronavirus pandemic with over 9.7 million cases and more than 140,000 deaths, patients in respiratory distress from air pollution are also increasing. Emergency measures for controlling air pollution, like increasing public transit, are now harder to implement and long-term goals, like decreasing dependency on fossil fuels, are being put by the wayside (AP). The dual threat from coronavirus and pollution is particularly bad in New Delhi as the annual spike in pollution levels has combined with a surge in new Covid-19 cases. Dr. Akshay Budhraja, a pulmonologist at a private hospital here, said it was flooded with patients with respiratory distress who thought they had COVID-19. “Patients are very, very anxious,” he said. Last year, authorities restricted some of the capital’s private vehicles and increased public transit options to try to curb pollution levels, but this year, limitations on bus and metro passengers due to the pandemic have eliminated that option. The pandemic has also affected India’s plans for power plants to limit their emissions; the government had asked plants to install technology to remove sulfur dioxide from their emissions by 2022. Now, supply chains have been broken as delays related to the pandemic have made it impossible to import the equipment. Health and environmental experts worry that the delays due to the pandemic will become a permanent setback in India’s push to control air pollution.

Europe

In Emotional Speech, Germany’s Merkel Calls for Stronger Restrictions as Germany Sees Record Case Numbers

“I’m sorry, from the bottom of my heart, I am really sorry,” the visibly emotional German chancellor Angela Merkel said during a budget debate in Parliament. “But if the price we pay is 590 deaths a day then I have to say this is not acceptable” (NYT). Merkel pleaded with Germans to forgo meeting people and traveling over the holidays on Wednesday as the country saw a record number of deaths from the coronavirus. Merkel has been frustrated for weeks as the country’s 16 state premiers agreed to only partial restrictions that allowed most stores and schools to remain open. As a result, the number of new infections has remained high and record numbers of people are dying from the virus. State authorities are responsible for deciding the health policy of their own regions so without cooperation from them, Merkel has not been able to enact stricter measures. During her speech, she pounded her fist in anger and pressed her palms together as she begged people to scale down activities and called for schools to close early for Christmas. “If we have too many contacts before Christmas and then later this becomes the last Christmas we celebrate with our grandparents, then we missed something,” Ms. Merkel said. “We would do well to really take seriously what scientists tell us.” On Thursday, the national disease control center, the Robert Koch Institute, said that 23,679 new cases were confirmed over the previous 24 hours. That’s just above the previous record of 23,648 from Nov. 20 (AP).

U.S. Government & Politics

Much Activity and Confusion Over Multiplying Stimulus Proposals

With Congress still seeking to come to an agreement over a stimulus and pandemic relief bill, the increasing number of proposals has led to confusion over whether negotiations stand (Politico). Politico reports, “In the span of an afternoon, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell suggested dropping discussions on the two biggest sticking points. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin offered a new proposal to Speaker Nancy Pelosi. A bipartisan group of senators is still working to finalize language on a $908 billion package. And President Donald Trump endorsed new stimulus checks.” On Tuesday Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell appeared to be willing to push discussion of liability protections, which he previously presented as a red line, and state and local aid to next year. However, the call to push state and local aid to next year was not received well by Democrats. Politico writes, “Schumer argued that leaving out state and local assistance would lead to sweeping public sector layoffs and scoffed at the idea McConnell was trying to compromise.” He also accused McConnell of trying to scuttle current bipartisan efforts on a different proposal. The bipartisan group continued to work on its proposal on Wednesday (WSJ). The confusion comes as the White House proposed its own approach, suggesting that the bill should include fewer unemployment benefits and instead have a $600 direct check to Americans, a change we covered in yesterday’s brief. Missouri Republican Senator Josh Hawley had previously commented that he had urged the president to support direct checks and veto any proposal without them.

Biden Pledges to Vaccinate 100 Million People and Reopen Schools in First 100 Days

On Tuesday, President Elect Joe Biden pledged that he would reopen most schools and ensure 100 million people are vaccinated in his first 100 days (Politico). Biden also emphasized the importance of face masks, saying, “ “We need your help. Wear a mask for 100 days. It’s the easiest thing you can do to reduce Covid cases, hospitalizations, and deaths” and reiterating that he will mandate masks in government buildings and on airplanes.

Judge Blocks LA Outdoor Dining Ban

On Tuesday, Los Angeles Superior Court Judge James C. Chalfant issued a ruling blocking the county’s indefinite ban on outdoor dining (Politico). The tentative ruling came in response to a legal challenge on the part of the California Restaurant Association. Politico writes, “The tentative ruling to block the open-ended ban won't have immediate practical consequences for Los Angeles-area restaurants, as the county is now under a temporary stay-home order tied to the region's quickly diminishing ICU capacity. But it marks a symbolic and legal victory for those challenging the emergency powers flexed by state and local officials — and a rare setback for public health authorities facing a worsening crisis.” The judge ruled that, “By failing to weigh the benefits of an outdoor dining restriction against its costs, the County acted arbitrarily and its decision lacks a rational relationship to a legitimate end.” Bonus Read: “California Towns Rebel Against Pandemic Restaurant Restrictions,” (NYT).

U.S. Economy

U.S. Job Openings Decline

The total number of job openings in the United States fell slightly in the first week of December (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “There were an average of 10.7 million job openings posted each day on online sites across the U.S. this month, down slightly from November’s 10.9 million, according to data from job-search site ZipRecruiter shared with The Wall Street Journal.” The decline suggests that the economic recovery from the impact of the coronavirus may be stalling and comes as the labor department reported that employers added 245,000 jobs in November, itself a decline from 610,000 jobs added in October, another sign of a slowing recovery.

Bonus Reads: “Covid-19 Pandemic Puts Squeeze on Pension Plans,” (WSJ); “Campbell’s Sales Growth Cools Down,” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

Bonus Read: “School Districts Slow to Follow New York City’s Lead on Reopening Schools,” (Politico). 

Ice Hockey Prompting Outbreaks; Closures Disappoint Northeasterners 

Ice hockey games have become the sites of coronavirus outbreaks, leading numerous northeastern states to restrict the sport, but the restrictions are generating disappointment from locals who view the sport as a tradition, according to the New York Times (NYT). New Jersey alone tied the sport to 22 outbreaks. The Times notes, “In New Jersey and in many suburban towns across the Northeast, youth hockey is an all-consuming ritual of the cold weather months. Players and their families devote nights and weekends and routinely drive hundreds of miles to compete in multiday tournaments.” Yet New York banned games and scrimmages when the pandemic began and New Jersey and Connecticut have restricted them along with other sports until January. The Times also notes that intercollegiate games across the northeast are also suspended. Even in states that have not banned the sport, much has changed. The Times writes, “In places where youth hockey has not been halted, the normal rhythms have been tossed out the window — no spectators allowed in arenas, locker rooms off limits to players and teams subject to mandatory quarantine if even one athlete tests positive for the virus.” Health experts point to the indoor character of the game and its physical style of play as possible explanations for its particularly large transmission risk.

Bonus Read: “Drive-by Burials and FaceTime Farewells: Grief in the Covid Era Will Weigh on the American Psyche for Years to Come,” (STAT).

Analysis & Arguments

Jordan Kisner examines how growing hospitalization rates are impacting doctors (Atlantic).

James Hamblin writes on whether it is ok to give people cookies amid the pandemic (Atlantic).

Spencer Bokat-Lindell writes on pandemic fatigue and anger (NYT).

The New York Times editorial board urges efforts to prevent coronavirus spread in prisons (NYT).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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