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Tariffs Are a Wild Card for the Economy Again

By Vicky Ge Huang

 

President Trump’s global tariffs are illegal, the Supreme Court ruled Friday, in a stinging repudiation of a signature White House initiative. Trump said in response that he would increase to 15% a global tariff that will replace many of the duties ruled illegal. Now, with a new, temporary global tariff in place, fresh questions hang over the U.S. economy. In Asia, Europe and the Americas, governments don’t expect Trump to abandon his favorite tool of economic policy, despite the legal setback. One thing we can be sure of, though, is that American trade has moved in a more durably protectionist direction. The pursuit of liberalized trade and high-minded principles that once drove U.S. trade policy is gone, writes the WSJ's Greg Ip.

 

Top News

Tariffs Are a Wild Card for the Economy Again

Photo: Kyle Grillot/Bloomberg News

Before Friday, President Trump’s tariffs, after months of on-again, off-again turbulence, had seemed to finally steady. Now, with the bulk of Trump’s tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, and a new, temporary global tariff in place, fresh questions hang over the U.S. economy.

Will Trump’s new 15% tariff meaningfully change trade flows and business operations? Will the federal government still be able to reap trillions in tariff revenues that could help slow the surging national debt? Will billions of dollars from the overturned tariffs flow back to the hundreds of businesses demanding refunds?

The answers will largely turn on how aggressively the Trump administration pushes to permanently replace the struck-down tariffs with new ones, and how trade partners and U.S. political leaders respond. Read more.

Trump Lost on Tariffs, but Trade Will Never Be the Same

President Trump still has three years left in office. Yet the Supreme Court’s ruling Friday that most of his tariffs are illegal has given the world a glimpse of U.S. trade policy long after Trump has gone. It will be more orderly and less chaotic, less driven by impulse and vendetta, more discriminating between allies and adversaries, writes Greg Ip for The Wall Street Journal.

Fed’s Logan: More Business Uncertainty Following Tariff Decision

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she is “cautiously optimistic” on interest rates and acknowledged there may be more uncertainty facing businesses—including the Supreme Court tariff ruling Friday.

More on the tariff ruling:

  • Tariff Ruling Sets Off Scramble to Figure Out What Comes Next
  • Court’s Tariff Ruling Puts $133 Billion in State of Limbo
  • Why Tariffs Aren’t Shrinking the U.S. Trade Deficit
  • How Trump’s Tariffs Changed the Year in Trade, in Charts
  • Tariff Ruling Brings Little Comfort Overseas
 

Christine Lagarde Isn’t Done Trying to Fix Europe

As European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's tenure in one of the continent’s most powerful jobs enters its final stretch, she is laying out a vision for how Europe can survive the fracturing of its relationship with its closest ally.

 

U.S. Economy

Growth Slowed in Fourth Quarter, Hurt by Government Shutdown

The U.S. economy grew more slowly the fourth quarter of last year, weighed down by last fall’s record-long government shutdown and slower consumer spending.

U.S. gross domestic product—the value of all goods and services produced across the economy—rose at a 1.4% seasonally and inflation adjusted annual rate in the final quarter of last year, the Commerce Department said Friday.

Fed’s Preferred Gauge Shows Accelerating December Inflation Trends

Key inflation metrics tracked by the Federal Reserve accelerated at the end of last year, underscoring why many Fed officials have turned cautious about supporting further interest-rate cuts.

The personal-consumption expenditures price index increased by 0.4% in December, after rising by 0.2% in November, the Commerce Department said Friday.

Consumers’ Mood Brightened in February, Michigan Survey Finds

Americans’ assessment of the economy improved slightly in February, according to the University of Michigan’s monthly survey, yet high prices continued to keep many on edge.

The sentiment index rose to 56.6 this month, up from 56.4 in January, the survey reported Friday. An initial February reading published earlier in the month had shown sentiment climbing to 57.3.

New Home Sales Rose in November But Fell in December

The rate of new home sales jumped in November, but fell back slightly in December, according to a delayed report released by the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development Friday. 

Sales of new single-family homes rose to 758,000 in November, from 656,000 in October, and slipped to 745,000 in December.

 

Financial Regulation

Crypto and Fintech Firms Seek Shortcut to Banking: Buy One

Cryptocurrency companies and fintech startups dream of breaking into the mainstream financial system. Some think they may have found a shortcut: Buy a bank.

 

Forward Guidance

Monday (all times ET)

8:30 a.m.: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
10 a.m.: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
10:30 a.m.: Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Tuesday

9 a.m.: Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
9 a.m.: U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9 a.m.: FRB Atlanta President Raphael Bostic conversation with Marketplace senior editor
10 a.m.: Monthly Wholesale Trade
10 a.m.: Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
10 a.m.: Consumer Confidence Index
6 p.m.: U.S. President Donald Trump delivers State of the Union address

 

Research

This Isn't the End of the Tariff Story

Markets shouldn't expect too much from the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to strike down President Trump's global trade tariffs, Ebury market strategist Matthew Ryan says. The decision was broadly expected, and in any case, the president will likely turn quickly to other means of applying restrictions on trade, he says. "[Trump] has at his disposal multiple levers to pull in order to circumvent the verdict," Ryan says. "This means that while we could see some near-term disruption, his long-term tariff strategy is unlikely to be derailed so long as the White House can replicate the regime through alternative methods." — Joshua Kirby

 

Basis Points

  • Private-sector activity in the U.S. slowed in February as tariffs drove costs higher for firms, while Europe expanded at a stronger pace than anticipated as a rebound in industry signaled resilience against lingering headwinds.
  • Canadians braved severe winter conditions in parts of the country to hit the stores last month, driving a strong rebound in retail sales to start the new year. 
  • Confidence among German businesses picked up in February as the rollout of government stimulus gathers steam, though renewed tariff uncertainty could yet undermine the outlook.
 

About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.

 
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