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February 2, 2021 - Brief Issue 146

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University

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Top Headlines

Coronavirus Variant Surges in Brazil (Health & Science)

People Previously Infected with Covid-19 May Only Need One Vaccine Dose; More Research Needed (Health & Science)

Nine Top New York Public Health Officials Have Quit Since Summer, Citing Efforts by Governor Cuomo to Undermine Them (Health & Science)

Pharmacies Prepare to Become Major Covid-19 Vaccine Distributors (Health & Science)

New Diabetes Cases Linked to Covid-19 (Health & Science)

South Africa Receives First Doses of Covid-19 Vaccine (Around the World)

Germany Sends Healthcare Workers to Portugal (Around the World)

Britain Begins Door-to-Door Testing of 80,000 People (Around the World)

WHO Team Visits Animal Disease Center in Wuhan (Around the World)

Japan Set to Extend State of Emergency (Around the World) 

Amid Executive Order Push on Worker Safety, Biden Leaves Trump Order Protecting Meat Processing Plants Against Complaints (U.S. Government & Politics)

Congressional Budget Office Predicts Economy to Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels This Year, But Employment Will Lag (U.S. Economy)

Pandemic Pushes Young People to Buy Life Insurance (U.S. Society)

Police Clear Washington Hotel Forcibly Occupied by Homeless People and Housing Activists Seeking Emergency Pandemic Housing (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 26,321,167 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 443,365 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 304,415,413 tests and distributed 49,936,450 vaccine doses, with 32,222,402 doses administered (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 103,458,308 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,239,495 deaths. At least 57,424,587 people have recovered from the virus.

Coronavirus Variant Surges in Brazil

A new coronavirus variant first identified in the Amazon in Brazil is spreading throughout the country, overwhelming crowded hospitals in northern Brazil (WSJ). The trend is alarming to epidemiologists, who say the variant has contributed to a fourfold rise in cases in the city of Manaus. According to researchers, the variant is more contagious and may be more adept at reinfecting people. Brazil has not been able to purchase the Covid-19 vaccines it needs to vaccinate a majority of its population, leading to concerns that the virus could continue to spread and mutate, which increases the chances of mutations that could make the virus more infectious or even resistant to vaccines. As we have reported previously, global health experts have called for equitable vaccine distribution to low- and middle-income countries like Brazil, saying that situations in which the virus is allowed to spread and mutate long-term threaten public health in all areas of the world.

People Previously Infected with Covid-19 May Only Need One Vaccine Dose; More Research Needed

Limited evidence suggests that people who have been previously infected with Covid-19 may only require one dose of the two-shot Covid-19 vaccine series (NYT). For most people who have completed two doses of either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines, symptoms are worse after the second shot. The immune system instantly recognizes the second dose as an “invader” and mounts an inflammatory response that can result in fever, chills, headache and other flu-like symptoms.

Many who were previously infected with Covid-19 have reported these types of symptoms after just one dose, leading some researchers to speculate that a single dose could be sufficient for previously-infected people. A study published as a pre-print ahead of formal peer-review and publication documented similar effects, finding that previously-infected individuals experienced a stronger immune response after just one vaccine dose. These individuals had much higher antibody levels and more severe symptoms, according to the study. Cutting back to one dose for these people, according to the study’s authors, could help people avoid additional unpleasant side effects as well as freeing up desperately-needed doses. However, the study was small, and other experts say more research is needed to determine whether one or two doses is best.

Nine Top New York Public Health Officials Have Quit Since Summer, Citing Efforts by Governor Cuomo to Undermine Them

Since last summer, nine high-level New York public health officials have resigned, including the deputy commissioner for public health, the director of the bureau of communicable disease control, the medical director for epidemiology and the state epidemiologist (NYT). The focus of these resignations was New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who has repeatedly tried to undermine his own public health department in the middle of a pandemic.

“When I say ‘experts’ in air quotes, it sounds like I’m saying I don’t really trust the experts,” Mr. Cuomo said on Friday. “Because I don’t.” The governor has backed up his words with actions. Rather than using vaccine distribution plans that had been developed cooperatively over several years by state and local health departments, Cuomo instituted his own plan requiring hospital systems to coordinate vaccinations, a move that was criticized by public health experts. Health officials have been shut out of other key decisions as well, including shutdown and reopening policies. Mr. Cuomo defended his actions, saying that thanks to his approach, the Covid-19 infection rate was down and vaccine distribution had picked up. After a slow start, New York ranks 20th in percentage of residents who have received at least one vaccine dose.

Pharmacies Prepare to Become Major Covid-19 Vaccine Distributors

Drugstore chains and other retailers with pharmacies are gearing up to become a key part of the Covid-19 vaccination effort (WSJ). These pharmacies say they already have the capacity to become major vaccine distributors. For many Americans, drugstore pharmacies like Walgreens and CVS are among the most accessible health care providers. CVS has said it can vaccinate 20 million to 25 million people each month once supplies are available. Walmart said it would be able to vaccinate 10 million to 13 million a month. CVS plans to hire 25,000 additional workers across the country to aid in its vaccination efforts. As of Monday, approximately 32 million vaccine doses have been administered around the U.S. since mid-December out of nearly 50 million distributed (CDC).

New Diabetes Cases Linked to Covid-19

In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, physicians are noting an uptick in new diabetes cases, particularly among those who have recovered from Covid-19 (WaPo). Although Covid-19 acutely affects the lungs, clinicians have noted a host of long-term effects of the illness, including heart damage, kidney disease and blood clots. Now, researchers say both Type 1 diabetes, in which the pancreas fails to produce insulin, and Type 2 diabetes, in which the body becomes resistant to insulin, may be long-term effects of Covid-19. Though many cases have occurred in those with risk factors for diabetes, some have also occurred in patients with no known risk factors. An analysis published in November in the research journal Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism said that though the new diagnoses could be due to the effects of severe illness or steroid treatment, a direct link to Covid-19 was also possible.

Experts Explain Why Some People Are Infected with Covid-19 After Vaccination

As vaccines make their way across the U.S., some people, including three members of Congress, have reported contracting coronavirus even after receiving the vaccine (NYT). Experts say these incidents are not surprising and are not an indication that vaccines do not work or that they were not administered properly. The New York Times details several reasons why such incidents might occur. Vaccines take a few weeks to become fully effective, with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines not offering full protection until after the second dose. Additionally, some people may be infected with the coronavirus prior to inoculation and test positive only later. The vaccines are also only designed to prevent illness – it is not yet fully known whether they fully prevent infection. Experts say it may be possible for a vaccinated person to become infected and pass the virus to others despite not showing symptoms. Finally, despite extremely high efficacy rates for both vaccines available in the U.S., no vaccine is 100 percent effective at preventing illness. A small percentage of fully-vaccinated people may end up contracting Covid-19 – though the vaccines do help reduce disease severity even in the small number of people who remain susceptible.

Even after vaccination, experts recommend people continue to follow public health guidelines like masking and physical distancing (WaPo). The precautions will likely be necessary until the majority of Americans have been immunized. Although data from the Moderna Covid-19 vaccine clinical trial suggests that the vaccine does help prevent viral transmission, scientists are uncertain how strong this effect is. Additionally, there is concern that vaccines may be less effective against some emerging variants.

More Studies Show Racial Disparities in Covid-19; NYC Vaccine Rollouts Also Show Disparities

Two new studies add to the mounting evidence of disparities in Covid-19 vulnerability in the United States (CIDRAP). In one study, published in the journal JAMA Network Open by scientists at the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor, researchers used the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) to analyze sociodemographic data from more than 4 million Covid-19 cases and nearly 150,000 deaths all across the country. The SVI takes into account socioeconomic status, household composition, housing, age, disability, race, ethnicity and English language proficiency, with higher scores indicating greater disadvantage. The study found that higher SVI scores correlated strongly with increased Covid-19 incidence and greater risk of death from Covid-19.

Another study, published in the Annals of Internal Medicine by researchers from Emory University, found that Black healthcare workers in the Emory Healthcare system were twice as likely to have contracted Covid-19 as their White peers. Multiracial healthcare workers were at 1.7 times the risk compared to White workers. The authors found that race and community exposure were more strongly linked to Covid-19 infections than workplace exposure.

In New York, as in other areas of the U.S., racial disparities are becoming evident in the vaccine rollout. Mayor Bill de Blasio said on Sunday that Black and Latino residents were receiving a far lower proportion of Covid-19 vaccines than White residents (NYT). De Blasio expressed frustration that those hardest-hit by the pandemic were among those least likely to have access to vaccines and said the situation needed “to be addressed aggressively and creatively.” The mayor said he thought the best way to address disparities was to increase the city’s supply of vaccines, which have often been in short supply. De Blasio’s critics have said the mayor needs to stop allowing people from outside the city to take vaccination slots, fix the confusing sign-up websites and ensure paid time off for essential workers seeking vaccines. Bonus Reads: “Opinion: White Americans are Being Vaccinated at Higher Rates Than Black Americans. Such Inequity Cannot Stand,” (WaPo); “Disadvantage Indices Can Help Achieve Equitable Vaccine Allocation,” (STAT).

Bonus Reads: “N.Y.C. Postpones Vaccine Appointments As Winter Storm Approaches,” (NYT); “The ‘Dr. Fauci’ of the Texas Border Is Counting the Dead,” (NYT).

Around the World

Africa 

South Africa Receives First Doses of Covid-19 Vaccine 

South Africa welcomed the delivery of its first Covid-19 vaccines on Monday with President Cyril Ramaphosa greeting the crates of the 1 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine as they arrived at Johannesburg’s O.R. Tambo International Airport (AP). The initial shipment will be allowed by another 500,000 doses later this month. The AstraZeneca vaccines will be effective in preventing severe disease and death from the variant that has become dominant in South Africa, according to vaccine experts. Front-line health workers will be the first to be inoculated and the government intends to inoculate 40 million people, about 67% of the country’s total population, by the end of the year. South Africa has the highest number of Covid-19 cases in Africa, with 1.45 million confirmed cases and 44,164 deaths.

Europe 

Germany Sends Healthcare Workers to Portugal 

Germany’s military is sending more than 25 doctors and nurses and 40 mobile and 10 stationary ventilators to Portugal where hospitals are being overwhelmed with the world’s highest seven-day rolling average of new cases per capita (Guardian). The German military team will also bring 150 hospital beds and plans to stay for three weeks. “We support our friends in Portugal who find themselves in an especially dramatic situation,” defence minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer said on Monday. Nearly half of Portugal’s total coronavirus death toll was registered during January as it battles a devastating third wave of the virus. On Saturday, health authorities said that only seven of 850 ICU beds were vacant.

Britain Begins Door-to-Door Testing of 80,000 People

Britain will begin a door-to-door Covid-19 testing of 80,000 people on Tuesday as part of its effort to bring the spread of a new highly infectious variant of the coronavirus under control (Reuters). Public Health Englad said it identified 105 cases of the South African variant since Dec. 22. Residents in eight areas of the country will now be tested whether or not they show symptoms in hopes of breaking the chain of transmission. Britain has also been battling a new more transmissible variant discovered in the southeast of England. “It is concerning - it’s deeply concerning,” junior education minister Michelle Donelan told Sky. “It’s still a very perilous stage of this virus and we’ve got these new variants spreading.” Britain is rolling out its mass vaccination program and nearly 9.3 million people have received the first shot. Health officials worry that the new variants will undermine lockdown measures put in place to control the virus until the majority of the population can be vaccinated. 

France Battles Vaccine Misinformation in Poorest Region

Saint-Denis, a diverse area north of Paris, is one of the poorest areas in mainland France and had the highest rise in mortality in the country last spring due to Covid-19. Now, health officials and government officials are battling the spread of misinformation about the vaccine along with the spread of coronavirus. As the AP writes, “Up to 75 percent of the population are immigrants or have immigrant roots, and its residents speak some 130 different languages. Health care is below par, with two to three times fewer hospital beds than other regions and a higher rate of chronic illnesses. Many are essential workers in supermarkets, public sanitation and health care.” Now, local officials are attempting to educate the population about the benefit of vaccines, a challenge when much of the population don’t speak French and lack access to regular medical care due to bureaucratic demands and co-payments that often block access to new immigrants or the very poor. Next month, a bus will travel throughout the region visiting street markets and providing information about the vaccine. About 40 “vaccination ambassadors” will also be trained to provide information and refute “fake news.”

Asia

WHO Team Visits Animal Disease Center in Wuhan

World Health Organization experts visited an animal disease center in the Chinese city of Wuhan on Tuesday as part of the ongoing investigation into the origins of the coronavirus (AP). Team member Peter Daszak told reporters they had “excellent facilities, very informative meeting” and said the team met with staff in charge of livestock in Hubei province and had an “in-depth” discussion. Leading up to the visit, China and the WHO engaged in intense negotiations since China has maintained strict control on information about the virus (Guardian). The WHO team has plans to visit the Wuhan Institute of Virology and will ask for more data to add to the information they have already collected.  

Japan Set to Extend State of Emergency

Japan is planning to extend its current state of emergency in Tokyo and other regions for another month on Tuesday in an effort to keep the coronavirus case numbers on a downward slope (Reuters). “The number of new coronavirus cases is falling, but caution is still needed,” Katsunobu Kato, chief cabinet secretary, told reporters. Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga is expected to formally announce the extension to March 7 on Tuesday.

Bonus Read: “The 1,700 km Journey to Deliver Coronavirus Vaccine to India’s Rural Health Workers,” (Reuters). 

U.S. Government & Politics

Amid Executive Order Push on Worker Safety, Biden Leaves Trump Order Protecting Meat Processing Plants Against Complaints

Even as the Biden administration made a push to emphasize worker safety through executive orders, it has left in place a Trump executive order that labels meat processing plants as essential industries under the Defense Production Act (Politico). Politico writes, “Former President Donald Trump in April ordered meat-processing plants to continue operating, declaring them critical infrastructure under the Defense Production Act. Several meat companies have cited the executive order in court to challenge lawsuits over Covid-19-related worker illnesses and deaths.” Debbie Berkowitz, a former Occupational Safety and Health Administration adviser under Obama now with the National Employment Law Project, told Politico, “They need to withdraw that EO -- because I don't trust the meat [companies].” A White House spokesperson pointed to the actions that have been taken, commenting, “the President has taken immediate steps to protect workers during this crisis, including in the COVID Executive Order the President signed on Day 1 in office.”

U.S. Economy

Congressional Budget Office Predicts Economy to Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels This Year, But Employment Will Lag

On Monday, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasted that the economy would return to pre-pandemic levels this year but noted that employment would lag (Politico, NYT). The CBO projected 4.6% growth and that the unemployment rate would drop to 5.3%. Unemployment is currently at 6.8%. The CBO wrote, “The downturn was not as severe as expected and because the first stage of the recovery took place sooner and was stronger than expected” and its predictions do not assume substantial new stimulus though the CBO does note that the success of the vaccination effort will be an important factor.

U.S. Society

Bonus Read: “His Team is Going to the Super Bowl. He’s Staying on the Coronavirus Front Lines,” (WaPo). 

Pandemic Pushes Young People to Buy Life Insurance

The pandemic has driven a surge in purchases of life insurance, particularly among young people (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “Applications for life-insurance policies jumped 4% in 2020 in the U.S., the highest year-over-year annual growth rate since 2001, when MIB Group Inc., a member-owned organization, began tracking activity.” According to the Journal, “Younger people drove the growth, MIB said. Applications were up 7.9% for those under age 45, compared with a 3.8% increase for consumers 45 to 59, and a small decline for those 60 and older.” The increase comes even as some insurers have halted sales of certain policies as a result of low interest rates. The Journal writes, “With deaths from the coronavirus constantly in the news, many younger people who previously put off buying life insurance finally took action, agents and executives said. Americans made purchases to replace—or augment—employer-provided coverage in a weak economy.”

Police Clear Washington Hotel Forcibly Occupied by Homeless People and Housing Activists Seeking Emergency Pandemic Housing

On Sunday, police in Olympia, Washington cleared a downtown hotel that had been forcibly occupied by homeless people and homelessness activists seeking emergency pandemic housing (CNN, KOMO News, Fox). Ten people were arrested. The Olympia Police Department described the incident in a statement: “At about 11 a.m. today, people inside the Red Lion began calling 911 to report a group was attempting to forcibly take over the hotel. OPD received reports that the employees felt under threat from the group, and that an employee was allegedly assaulted. Employees reported that some members of the activist group inside the hotel were armed with items such as hatchets, batons, knives and had gas masks, helmets and goggles apparently in preparation for a confrontation. OPD estimated about 45 members of the group inside and outside of the hotel.” The activists associated with Oly Housing Now wrote in its statement on the occupation, “Today Oly Housing Now took the Red Lion Motel for Emergency Pandemic Housing. It’s too cold for people to be sleeping on the streets - especially during a pandemic.”

Andrew Brooks, Who Led Development of Saliva-Based Covid Test, Dies

On January 23, Andrew Brooks, the Rutgers University research professor who led development of the first FDA-approved saliva-based test for Covid-19, died at the age of 51 (CNN). Janet Green, his sister, told CNN that Brooks died of a heart attack, adding that he was “an intellect, an amazing scientist, an amazing father ... an amazing family man.” Brooks was chief operating officer and director of technology development for RUCDR Infinite Biologics, which developed the test. New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy called Brooks, “one of our state's unsung heroes” adding that he “undoubtedly saved lives.” Per CNN, “Brooks is survived by his mother, sister, wife and three daughters, along with a niece and nephew.”

Bonus Read: “After the Covid Vaccine, People Find Joy in Little Things,” (WSJ). 

Analysis & Arguments

Ryan Goodman, Oona Hathaway, and Steve Vladeck make the case for why Guantanamo detainees should be vaccinated (Just Security).

Melissa Kravitz Hoeffner reports on why some restaurants are taking this winter off (NYT).

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar argues in favor of vaccinating some sports players early to aid messaging about vaccine safety (NYT).

The National Review argues that New York Governor Andrew Cuomo’s coronavirus response was a shameful failure (National Review).

Jeet Heer writes that President Biden should reject the Senate GOP overture seeing a slimmed down, bipartisan relief bill (Nation).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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