Welcome back. Economic insight, always at a premium, matters now more than ever. As the global economy appears headed into a recession or perhaps worse, companies are scrambling to develop new ways to track the unfolding crisis. Today, we look at one approach, developed by RBC, that applies AI to a broad collection of data such as port activity. The bank says the real-time analysis augments traditional indexes.

Data system provides real-time insight into coronavirus's impact on China and rest of the world, RBC says. As the coronavirus pandemic puts the global economy under intense recessionary pressure, one bank says it has developed a system that can help track the impact of the outbreak in real time. John McCormick has the story for WSJ Pro. 

Augmenting official reports. Royal Bank of Canada has used its real-time analytic system to augment China’s state-issued reports about the economic impact of the coronavirus. It also could hold clues about what the outbreak means for the global economy.

The system uses AI to analyze alternative sets of data such as energy usage, vehicle congestion, flight information and port traffic—rather than hard economic data including wholesale prices or consumer spending.

Early warning. RBC was one of the first to spot China's rebound in early March, after its economy was hammered earlier this year as drastic virus-containment measures by Beijing contributed to a slowdown in January and February. A record economic slowdown in March across the U.S. and Europe is expected to trigger a recession.

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Looking beyond official sources for economic insight. The bank said the alternative data sets it is using feed into its analysis of Europe, the U.S. and the rest of the world. However, alternative data plays a bigger role in its analysis of China's government-controlled economy.

“I think it’s important to highlight the idea that we’re able to see all these different indicators from various sourcing—not Chinese-government-related sourcing,” said Michael Tran, managing director and global energy strategist at RBC Capital Markets, the investment-banking and markets unit of RBC.

A multitude of data sources, and AI. The information the bank gathers includes traffic data from TomTom NV, which tracks road congestion in more than 80 countries, and details from FlightAware, a flight-tracking service. Shipping trends come from Orbital Insight Inc., a geospatial analytics company that collects and analyzes vessel transponder data.

RBC Elements, an alternative-data and artificial-intelligence team within RBC Capital Markets’ research unit, brings the data sets together and applies various data-science techniques to identify historical patterns and directional changes, said Fardeen Khan, RBC Elements founder and head of strategic initiatives in RBC Capital Markets.

Startup uses AI to spot anti-Covid-19 compounds. Gero Pte., a startup based in Singapore, says it has used artificial intelligence to identify potential anti-Covid-19 compounds that have previously been tested in humans, WSJ’s Brian Gormley reports.

Through AI, it pinpointed medicines such as the generic agents niclosamide, now used for parasite infections, and nitazoxanide, an antiparasitic and antiviral medicine, that could slow the new virus’s replication, according to Chief Executive Peter Fedichev.

Tech service providers face bleak post-coronavirus future. Businesses that sell information-technology services are expected to be hit hard by the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak as companies across sectors slash IT budgets in the months ahead, WSJ’s Angus Loten reports.

Spending seen dropping as much as 4%. Forrester Research Inc. expects spending by U.S. companies on tech consulting and systems integration services, two core areas of the IT services market, to drop as much as 4% this year, depending on the length and severity of the economic downturn sparked by the outbreak.

Information-technology services help companies run part or all of their infrastructure and software systems, including IT maintenance and support, systems integration, consulting, training and network services, among other areas. 

Lawmakers and the Trump administration reached an agreement on an estimated $2 trillion stimulus package aimed at shielding the U.S. economy from the worst consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. (WSJ)

Dow Climbs in Best Day Since 1933 on Stimulus Hopes. U.S. stocks rallied, with the Dow industrials surging more than 11%, on signs that lawmakers and the Trump administration were nearing a deal on a giant stimulus package aimed at limiting the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic. (WSJ)

Trump administration officials urged anyone leaving the New York metro area to self-isolate for 14 days to avoid spreading the coronavirus to other parts of the country. (WSJ)

Write to Enterprise Technology Editor Steven Rosenbush and Pro AI Deputy Editor John McCormick.

Follow us on Twitter: @wsjproai, @steve_rosenbush, @J_J_McCormick, @tomloftus, @SCastellWSJ, @JaredCouncil  and @angusloten.