Grasp the pattern, read the trend

No. 35, August/2021, 5

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

Please enjoy this week’s update on the latest events and developments in constitutional politics and governance, geopolitics and international relations in Asia.

Special greetings are extended to readers in Kyrgyzstan, Malysia, Trinidad and Tobago, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam which celebrate Independence Day in this week.

With best regards,

Henning Glaser

Editor in Chief

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in East Asia

• Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in South Asia

• Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in Southeast Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Announcements

Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in East Asia

China: New five-year economic prioritizes job creation and employment

(dql) China’s State Council, the country’s government cabinet, has issued a new five-year economic plan aimed at increasing employment, as well as wage growth and expansion of the vocational education system to spur domestic demand and upgrade industry.

Under the blueprint, the government seeks to create 55 million urban jobs by 2025 while the official urban unemployment rate is capped at 5.5%. In a first, the new plan also seeks to increase the share of wages in terms of GDP, while setting a compulsory goal of an average of 11.3 years of education for the working-age population by 2025, compared with 10.8 years in 2020.

Emphasizing stabilizing and expanding employment as top priority macroeconomic policy goals, the plan follows the so-called dual circulation strategy which the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party put forward in May 2020 in the wake of the fallouts of the pandemic and the trade conflict with the US. The strategy refers to an inter-play between ‘domestic circulation’ of production, distribution, and consumption and export-oriented ‘international circulation’, with the weight now shifting to the former after the latter had been prioritized under Deng Xiaoping’s reform and opening up policy. [South China Morning Post] [Bloomberg]

The economic plan comes on the heels of the five-year blueprint of the State Council and the Communist Party’s Central Committee which calls for greater regulation of strategic sectors including technology, healthcare, market supervision, and environmental protection, suggesting Beijing's unprecedented crackdown on private enterprise could last for some time [see AiR No. 33, August/2021, 3].

China: CCP limits online gaming time for minors

(dql) China’s National Press and Publication Administration, the country’s agency responsible for regulating and distributing news, print and Internet publications, has issued new rules ordering the country’s online gaming companies to further limit the services provided to young gamers, in a move aimed at tackling the problem of “youth video game addiction.”

The restrictions under the new rules include allowing young gamers to spend only an hour playing online games on Fridays, weekends and holidays from 8pm to 9pm local time, while online gaming companies would be prohibited to provide gaming services to minors in any form outside those hours and be required to ensure that real name verification systems are in place. Thus far, minors were allowed to spend 90 minutes on gaming on weekdays and three hours a day on weekends.

The new strict rules demonstrate an effort of the Chinese Communist Party to combat addictive habits among young people as well as to sanction companies which provide what the party sees as “spiritual opium,” with online gaming replacing ‘religion as the opium of the people’. [New York Times] [The Guardian] [Tech Crunch 1]

They are also to be seen as part of a broader development reflected in a series of recent regulatory measures taken by various Chinese regulators to place limits on numerous sectors and businesses in the name of protecting national security and social stability to prevent the forming of any power group outside the party. This includes as latest example President Xi Jinping’s call for “common prosperity,” and his pledge to redistribute wealth, which targets first and foremost country’s wealthiest business tycoons and high-earning celebrities and stars. Toeing the party line, here, resembles tributary practices and symbolic acts of subordination in imperial China. [CNN] [AiR No. 34, August/2021, 4]

In a latest related development, China’s Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) proposed new guidelines prohibiting companies from deploying algorithms that “encourage addiction or high consumption” and pose a danger to national security or disrupt the public order. [Tech Crunch 2]

Furthermore, China’s Securities Regulatory Commission, the country’s top securities regulator, vowed on Monday to crack down on mismanaged private funds and eliminate fake ones. The pledge comes against the backdrop of efforts of the government to channel more savings of households into the capital markets to fund innovation and supports the country’s economic recovery and to reduce the economy’s reliance on bank lending. China’s fund industry is currently worth $9.28 trillion. [Reuters]

China: Xi Jinping thought to be incorporated into national curriculum

(dql) China’s Ministry of Education has issued new guidelines under which “Xi Jinping Thought” will be added to the country’s national curriculum and be taught from primary school level all the way to university. The move is aimed at strengthening China’s youth’s “resolve to listen to and follow the Party,” supported by new teaching materials that “cultivate patriotic feelings.” 

The move is the latest in a string of recent steps of the party to strengthen its role and power in China’s educational system and in the Chinese society at large. [Reuters]

In a separate development, the Ministry announced that written exams for six and seven-year-olds will be scrapped in a bid to reduce pressure on parents and students in the country’s highly competitive educational system. [BBC]

Japan: Defense ministry unveils $50 billion budget request

(dql) Japan’s defense ministry revealed a 5.48 trillion yen ($50 billion) budget request in the fiscal year from April 2022, compared with 5.3 trillion that was eventually approved for the ongoing year to March 2022.

The budget request envisions Japan building five military ships and a submarine, as well as a purchase of 12 F-35 fighter jets. The ministry also announced that it seeks boost the nation's defensive capabilities in space and cybersecurity. [France 24]

Japan: Power struggles in ruling LDP go on ahead of party and national election

(hg) 72-year-old Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, also president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), plans to reshuffle the party's executive personnel as early as next Monday, including the replacement of his associate and secretary-general Toshihiro Nikai who holds the post for five years. At the same time, the prime minister seems to also consider a cabinet reshuffle. Both reshuffles are highly unusual ahead of party leadership and national elections as they are approaching.

Against waning approval in the population – recently Suga faced also criticism from famous writer Haruki Murakami - and within the LDP, the reshuffles are directed at internal contenders. Among them is former LDP policy chief and former foreign minister Fumio Kishida, who has announced his candidacy as LDP secretary-general in the Sept. 29 party election and plans to run for election as prime minister as well. [Nippon.com] [Reuters] [Regina Leader Post]

As LDP president Sugar faces strong rivals like Administrative Reform Minister Taro Kono, former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba, and internal affairs minister Sanae Takaichi. The outcomes of the LDP elections are, however, even more unclear as grassroots LDP members are also allowed to vote unlike the previous elections. [Euronews] [Devdiscourse] [Japan Times]

In any way, the winner of the party elections will lead a weakened LDP in the lower house.

Japan: Yakuza boss gets death, deputy life in rare verdict

(hg) Fukuoka District Court has sentenced Satoru Nomura, the 74-year-old boss of the Southwestern “Kudo-kai” crime syndicate, to death for ordering a murder and attacks on three other victims. Media reported, however, that the trial could not directly link Nomura to the accused crimes. Hearing the sentence, Nomura told the judge: “I asked for a fair decision. You will regret this for the rest of your life.” He was found guilty on four accounts. According to the court Nomura was ultimately responsible for the killing of an ex-boss of a fisheries cooperative who exerted influence over port construction projects back in 1998, the 2012 shooting of a former police officer who had investigated the Kudo-kai – one of the country´s largest and most nefarious Yakuza groups -, and the 2014 attack on a relative of the murder victim of the 1998 attack. The fourth crime was a 2013 knife attack against a nurse in a hospital where Nomura was seeking treatment. Together with him, the Court sentenced his deputy to life for delivering Nomura´s respective orders through the syndicates´ chain-of-command. [Japan Today]

The decision is remarkable for both the severe punishment handed down and the legal argumentation to hold the yakuza boss responsible even without proof a direct order to carry out the crimes. Regarding the latter point, the court argued with regard of the Yakuza´s code of honor and its traditional structure of command-and-control that the crimes could not have taken place without Nomura´s and his deputy’s orders.  Concerning the imposed death sentence, it seems to be the first time that the head of a Yakuza group has received it. [OCCRP]

Moreover, the death penalty, which is usually reserved for cases of multiple murder, is ordered for single murders only in extraordinary cases. These are those cases involving excessive cruelty or brutality, or kidnappings. Besides the degree of viciousness and remorse, the decision can also consider the impact of the crime on Japanese society. – In Japan, where the death penalty is largely supported by the public and executed by hanging, more than 100 inmates are currently on death row.

The surprising punishment of a Yakuza boss with the death sentence might be seen as a signal to the Yakuza but also points at the Yakuza´s decline. After all, the traditional crime organization was long tolerated in Japan as a sort of necessary evil for ensuring order and getting things done. More rigid anti-crime approaches, waning social tolerance and a weakening economy have, however, resulted in a steady decline of influence and membership. - In ten years, from 2010 to 2020, membership declined from around 80.000 to 25.000. Still not per se illegal, each Yakuza group maintains publicly known headquarters. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was not the only politician linked to the Yakuza when members of organization were reported to attend one of his parties in 2019. [The Straits Times]

South Korea: ‘Fake news’ law delayed in National Assembly

(aml) The ruling Democratic Party (DPK) and the opposition have failed to reach an agreement on the bill that enables courts to impose high punitive damages on media outlets that produce “fake news” They agreed to continue the negotiations the next day. [Yonhap News Agency]The week before, the plenary session had already been delayed after the bill had passed the Legislation and Judiciary Committee and since it should not go through two legislative stages in one day, the plenary session had been delayed until August 30th. [The Korea Herald 1] On Thursday, the main opposition People Power Party (PPP) had announced to filibuster the bill to prevent it from being passed. [The Korea Times 1] The bill had been highly criticized by the opposition and the media for restricting the freedom of press, some people claiming it to be a strategic move from the DPK to give them an advantage in the upcoming presidential election. [AiR, No.34, August/21, 4] The “fake news” law also faced criticism worldwide, with global media organizations stating their concerns that South Korea might loos its status as the country in Asia with the highest level of press freedom. [The Korea Herald 2] Now, even in the DPK, voices appear that the bill might need more discussion and revision before passing so that questions and problems can be resolved and the original goal can be achieved.  [The Korea Times 2]

South Korea: Moon presents ‘venture powerhouse’ vision

(aml) President Moon Jae-in promised to provide complete support for South Korean high-tech startups and entrepreneurial ventures, announcing a 1 trillion won (US $850 million) fund for investments in venture firms. His aim is that South Korea becomes one of the world’s top four venture powers through the government’s support in business launch, growth, and recovery. The prompt had been a Cheong Wa Dae event titled “K+Venture” on Thursday. [Yonhap News Agency]

South Korea: Rent subsidy for low-income youth

(aml) The government and the ruling Democratic Party have agreed on a special youth assistance program which will pay a monthly rent subsidy of 200,000 won ($171.4) for up to a year to young South Korean’s whose income is 60 percent or less of the country’s median income. The program is aimed to help young people battle the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and estimated 160,000 young people are expected to benefit from it. Besides, there will be a government-assisted loans, a program to help young people building assets and separate subsidies for small firms to encourage them to hire more young people. [The Korea Times]

South Korea: Lawmakers withdraw bill banning slander of ex-wartime sex slavery victims

(aml) A group of lawmakers of the ruling Democratic Party (DPK) has withdrawn a bill that was supposed to ban defamation of ex-wartime sexual slavery victims, their families and civic organizations that advocate for them. The bill had been under critique because one of the bill’s initiators, Yoon Mee-hyang, a former DPK member, had been the leader of an advocacy organization, herself, the “Korean Council for Justice and Remembrance for Issues of Military Slavery by Japan”. Yoon, who is currently tried for misappropriating donated funds during her time leading the Council, is said to have conflicting interests and to have brought forward the bill as a try to protect herself. After a surviving victim, Lee Yong-soo, publicly denounced the bill, the DPK distanced itself from it, saying it had been the idea of an independent group of lawmakers. The group now withdrew it because if the opposition of victims. [The Korea Herald] [The Korea Times]

South Korea to put carbon neutrality into law

(aml) On Wednesday, a bill to cut carbon emissions in 2030 by 35% or more compared to 2018 will be voted on in the plenary session. South Korea is going to be the 14th country to put carbon neutrality into law and the bill provides detailed plans for medium- and long-term reduction to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 as laid down in the 2015 Paris agreement. Although the bill had been criticized both for not being harsh enough compared to international standards, and for not protecting endangered industries such as coal mining and the combustions engine car manufacturing industries, it is expected to be enacted without problems since the ruling Democratic Party holds a supermajority. [The Korea Times] [The Korea Herald 1]

At the same time, the trade minister announced to hold talks with the EU, that just announced its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The CBAM will force EU importers of cement, electricity, steel, and aluminum to purchase carbon certificates corresponding to the amount of carbon that was spent on production to make products with a higher carbon emission less prize competitive in the EU. South Korea now fears for its steel and aluminum industry and announced negotiations to make sure that national firms will not face excessive administrative burdens. Local firms had suggested tax cuts instead. [The Korea Herald 2]

South Korea: victim of sexual violence in the Army attempted suicide

(aml) An alleged victim of sexual violence inside the Air Force was hospitalized after attempting suicide. According to the Army, the staff sergeant suffered persistent and repetitive sexual harassment and was stalked by a sergeant first class for months. She had reported it in August last year, but her superiors only took disciplinary actions and did not seek criminal punishment. According to her family, they even tried to cover it up by telling her not to report the incident. [The Korea Times] This is the third incident in a short time – in May and in early August this year, female officers, one from the Navy and the other one from the Air Force had committed suicide after being sexually harassed by male colleagues. [AiR, No.33, August/2021, 3]

As a response to this, the National Assembly’s Legislation and Judiciary Committee has passed a revision of the Military Court Act which will require military sexual offences to be tried in civilian courts rather than in military courts. [Yonhap News Agency]

Taiwan: President Tsai Ing-wen rejects rumors of a Cabinet reshuffle

(nds) At a regular meeting of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leadership on 25 August, President Tsai Ing-wen said she would not reshuffle the Cabinet, rejecting reports of plans to reshuffle the Cabinet circulating in the media. In doing so, she supports Prime Minister Su Tseng-Chang and the members of the government.

According to those reports, several DPP mayors and county chiefs would leave their posts and join the Cabinet in September. In addition, Taoyuan Mayor Cheng Wen-tsan was said to be the new premier. Tsai denied those claims and stressed the good work of the cabinet members in maintaining the economic momentum and containing the health crisis in Taiwan.

A spokesman for the president's party called on the media to check their sources with official authorities before publishing. On the other hand, some party leaders suspect that some media have ulterior motives. It could be an attempt from the opposition to destabilize the government. [Taiwan News]

Taiwan: Court rejects complaint to amend the Constitution

(nds) The Taipei High Administrative Court has dismissed a complaint filed by the founder of the Taiwan New Constitution Foundation, Koo Kwang-ming, against a decision made by the Central Election Commission last October to reject two proposals for a referendum on drafting a new Constitution.

The two proposed questions were "Do you support the president in pushing for a new constitution that reflects Taiwan's reality?" and: "Do you support the president in initiating a constitutional reform process for the country?".

The election commission judged that the wording of the referendum proposal lacked clarity and therefore decided to reject it. The Referendum Act states that all referendum proposals must be concise, clear, and objectively neutral. In addition, the decision-makers found that the questions did not comply with the procedural rules and did not conform to the "initiatives or referendums on important policies" in Article 2 of the Act. The Taipei High Administrative Court upheld the ruling. [Taipei Times]

Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in South Asia 

Bangladesh: Taliban takeover in Afghanistan stokes terrorist fears

(ad/lm) The Taliban's takeover of Kabul two weeks ago has fueled concerns of a revival of Islamist militancy in Bangladesh, amid a surge in social media posts by sympathizers and claims by police that some Bangladeshis have been seeking to travel to Afghanistan.

Earlier this year, police in the capital, Dhaka, arrested at least four suspected Islamists who wanted to travel to Afghanistan via India and Pakistan to join the Taliban. They were part of a group of 10 people who were searching for ways to become members of the fundamentalist group. [Deutsche Welle]

A day before Kabul fell, the Taliban issued a call for people to join the war in Afghanistan, and some Bangladeshis “left home” in response, police officials said last week. Moreover, since the fall of Kabul, thousands of users have been incessantly posting comments on social media to praise the Islamic fundamentalist group's victory and denounce Western media outlets "for propagating" against it.

While Bangladesh’s problems with Islamist militancy aren't as serious as they are in other South Asian countries – most notably Pakistan – given the presence of some groups, local and foreign, in the country, there should be some reason for concern, according to experts. [South China Morning Post]

In fact, the history of Bangladesh’s militancy trend that began in the 1990s has a deep connection with Taliban: Islamic fundamentalists who had travelled to Afghanistan to fight alongside the Afghan mujahideen against the Soviet Union later formed several local militant groups, including Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI) and Jama’at Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), upon their return to Bangladesh. For years, such groups have actively tried to destabilize the country by carrying out terror attacks [see e.g., AiR No. 29, July/2021, 3].

Bangladeshi police haven't disclosed any information on how many fundamentalists they have kept under surveillance, but they have acknowledged identifying networks that have in the past lured youths into joining the Taliban. [Dhaka Tribune]

Thus, those seeking to join the Taliban are now doing so at a time of increased security measures, as the country has boosted its anti-terrorism efforts over the last 20 years, particularly following the 2016 attack on a cafe in the Bangladeshi capital in which 22 people, mostly foreigners, were killed.

Experts argue that while the government’s "iron fist" approach to curbing militancy had gained some initial success, it could backfire in the long run. For it should not be used as a pretext to clamp down on legitimate detractors of the government, thereby laying the groundwork for future radicalizations of non-militant Islamists that resent how they've been treated by the state. [The Diplomat]

Bangladesh: Prime Minister Hasina continues to settle scores with opposition BNP

(ad/lm) Several high-ranking members of the ruling Awami League (AL), including Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, last week used a series of public events to further denounce an already marginalized opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the latest manifestation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s wish for vengeance.

Bangladesh is currently observing a month of mourning, commemorating the death anniversary of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the country’s founder and father of Prime Minister Hasina, who was killed in an army coup in 1975 along with most of his family.

Addressing a discussion virtually on August 26, the prime minister afresh alleged that Ziaur Rahman, founder of the BNP and a former President, had masterminded the plot for assassinating Sheikh Mujibur, as well as aiding and abetting the group of army officials involved in the killing by appointing them to important government posts during his presidency (1977-81). Moreover, when referring to recent clashes between stalwarts of the oppositional BNP and security forces in the capital, Dhaka [see AiR No. 34, August/2021, 4], Hasina alleged that the body of Ziaur Rahman – who was assassinated in 1981 in an army coup d'état – is not kept at the mausoleum complex in Chandrima Uddan. [Dhaka Tribune]

Using a similar language, Liberation War Affairs Minister AKM Mozammel Haque the same day called for the conduction of DNA tests on the remains present in the mausoleum to prove the existence of the ex-president's body inside the tomb. [The Business Standard]

Minister of Information Hasan Mahmud, in turn, told journalists they could play a pivotal role in unveiling the “real” reasons behind the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. The minister, who also serves as joint AL General Secretary, alleged that Zia Rahman had killed hundreds of members of armed forces to cling to power. [New Age]

Bangladesh: Rohingya observe fourth anniversary of Myanmar military crackdown

(ad) Hundreds of children on August 25 defied a ban on protests at Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar to mark the fourth anniversary of the Myanmar military crackdown, which forced over a million Rohingya to flee to other countries.

Bangladesh authorities had banned protests and rallies, saying they could spread the coronavirus. In fact, the country has been battling an alarming surge in infections and deaths in recent weeks, as the highly transmissible delta variant is driving an infection surge across the country. Around 20,000 infections and 200 deaths have been recorded so far in the southern region bordering Myanmar where the sprawling refugee camps are located [see AiR No. 33, August/2021, 3]. [The Straits Times]

Thousands of armed police and troops patrolled the camps in the Cox's Bazar district but did not act against the children who took part in the march in Kutupalong camp, the world's largest refugee settlement. Other members of the Rohingya community organized human chains or held prayer meetings. [Dhaka Tribune 1] [Dhaka Tribune 2]

Bangladesh has provided shelter and security to over 740,000 Rohingyas who fled across the border after the Myanmar military in mid-2017 launched a brutal offensive against the Muslim minority in Rakhine State following an attack on a military outpost by a Rohingya armed group. The new arrivals in Bangladesh joined more than 200,000 Rohingya who had fled earlier violence.

However, four years since the exodus, many of the refugees see no visible hope of going back to their homeland. Earlier in February, a long-awaited meeting of a working committee on the Rohingya repatriation between Bangladesh and Myanmar had been adjourned indefinitely, after the military overthrew Myanmar’s democratically elected government and declared a year-long state of emergency [see AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2].

Bangladesh: Anti-graft watchdog has no authority to freeze assets, High Court observes

(lm) Bangladesh’s High Court has observed that the country’s Anti-Corruption Commission is not permitted to freeze assets without prior permission from a court. [The Daily Star]

India: Talks on theatre commands making progress, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh says

(lm) India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh on August 29 said discussions on the creation of joint commands and their implementation were progressing well and fast, indicating that differences between stakeholders on the theaterisation model are being addressed.

India, which currently has a service-specific commands system, is in the process of carrying out the biggest military reforms in decades: theaterisation. The plan is to have four to five unified commands – instead of the current 17 single-service commands – to develop an integrated joint operations capability. Ultimately, the creation of theater commands will also promote greater familiarity between the services and provide for a rapid transition from peacetime to wartime operations. [The Hindustan Times]

Neighboring China – which Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat in July identified as India’s “primary threat” [see AiR No. 27, July/2021, 1] – has a theatre command system, and its Western Command is the one which India faces on its northern border.

However, the process, which is being led by General Rawat, has expectantly not been a smooth one, with the Indian Air Force opposing the formation of unified theatre commands citing limitation of resources. At present, the only fully functional unified command is the Andaman and Nicobar Command set up in 2001 while the Strategic Forces Command, set up in 2003, is an integrated functional command.

Thus, the government in June formed an eight-member panel under Rawat to fine-tune the theaterisation process and bring all stakeholders on board for speedy roll-out of new joint structures.

Several veteran officers, including former service chiefs and army commanders, have published op-eds on this matter, calling for a theatre commands model tailored to the Indian conditions. Indian-administered Kashmir, for example, may be considered as an independent theatre, for the territory – which is bordered to the north and east by China, to the northwest by Afghanistan, and to the west by Pakistan – features prominently in concerns over a multi-front military threat.  [The Economic Times] [The Statesman]

Against the larger backdrop of the impending creation of integrated theatre commands, the Ministry of Defence is also currently considering a proposal that seeks to establish “a more progressive, common and merit-based” policy for the promotion of officers to three-star ranks in general, and commanders-in-chief of the three military Services, in particular. A tri-Service committee comprising the Vice Chiefs of the three Services is being formed to study the proposal. [The Citizen]

Many articles have appeared on this issue; some recommending completely merit-based criteria for selection and others seeking a balance between seniority and merit. [The Times of India] [ThePrint]

India: External affairs minister briefs opposition on ‘critical’ Afghanistan situation

(lm) At an all-party meeting on the unfolding crisis in Afghanistan, the government on August 26 stated that evacuating Indian personnel from the country was its “top priority” as the situation remains “critical” since the Taliban retook Kabul earlier this month. [The Indian Express]

During the meeting, which was attended by 37 leaders from 31 political parties, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar noted that the Taliban had broken the promises made in the February 2020 Doha agreement with the United States, which “envisaged religious freedom and democracy, with a government in Kabul that represented all sections of Afghan society.”

Cabinet member and Leader of the House in Rajya Sabha Piyush Goyal and Parliamentary Affairs Minister Pralhad Joshi were also present at the meeting.

The sudden collapse of Afghanistan's civilian government on August 15 precipitated an unprecedented exodus of diplomats, foreign aid workers and Afghans who worked for Western countries and feared reprisals from the Taliban. India, which was among the nations that closed their missions in Afghanistan, under the ongoing Operation Devi Shakti, has already evacuated more than 800 people from Afghanistan after the fall of the capital city.

Indian Army, BSF discuss issues defending national borders at ‘Synergy Conference’

(lm) Against the larger backdrop of a rapidly deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, senior officers of the Army’s Western Command, the Border Security Force (BSF)’s Western Command Headquarters in Mohali, as well as Punjab and Jammu Frontiers held a Synergy Conference in the city of Chandimandir on August 25.

The agenda included discussions on issues of convergence to further enhance operational efficiency between the Indian Army and BSF. Common issues of training and equipment profile of BSF and challenges of border management were deliberated upon. [The Times of India]

India to raise $81 billion by leasing out state-owned infrastructure assets over next four years

(lm) India plans to raise $81 billion by leasing out state-owned infrastructure assets to the private sector over the next four years under a program announced earlier in the 2021/2022 budget in a bid to repair public finances battered by the pandemic and fund new capital expenditure.

The proposal involves handing already built assets including roads, railways, airports, sports stadiums, power transmission lines and gas pipelines to private operators on a long-term lease, according to a National Monetisation Pipeline document unveiled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in New Delhi on August 23. [Reuters]

The monetization plan – originally announced by Sitharaman in her annual budget speech in February – is in line with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strategic divestment policy, under which the government will retain presence in only a few identified areas with the rest tapping the private sector. The program is key to narrowing the nation’s budget deficit, which is pegged at 6.8 percent of the gross domestic product in the financial year that began April 1. [South China Morning Post]

India: Nine new judges to be appointed to Supreme Court, including three women

(lm) President Ram Nath Kovind on August 26 notified the appointment of nine judges to the Supreme Court of India. With these nine appointments, the working strength of the apex court will rise to 33 judges, with one vacancy remaining. [Live Law]

The government’s approval came a week after the 5-member Supreme Court collegium had sent its recommendations, ending a nearly two-year-long impasse. The list includes three women, one of which –Justice B V Nagarathna – is in line to become the first woman Chief Justice of India (CJI) in September 2027. However, her tenure as the CJI will be for only 36 days, if appointments go as per the seniority turn.

The most vociferous of the collegium members was former Supreme Court Judge Rohinton Nariman, who stoutly opposed the elevation of eight of the nine candidates. Justice Nariman, then the second most senior judge at India’s Supreme Court, retired on August 12 [see AiR No. 33, August/2021, 3]. [The Free Press Journal]

The Supreme Court collegium will also have to look into appointments of chief justices to at least four high courts: Karnataka, Gujarat, Telangana and Sikkim. Apart from these high courts, where the respective chief justices have been elevated to the Supreme Court, four other high courts — Allahabad, Calcutta, Chhattisgarh and Himachal Pradesh — currently have acting chief justices. [The Indian Express]

India: Woman who accused lawmaker of rape dies in self-immolation

(lm) The death of an Indian woman, who had set herself on fire after alleging harassment by police and judiciary at the behest of an MP she had accused of rape, has once again put the spotlight on a pattern of women facing harassment when they report cases to law enforcement.

The 24-year-old woman had accused Atul Rai, an MP from the regional Bahujan Samaj Party, of raping her at his home in the state of Uttar Pradesh and registered a police complaint against him in May 2019. The lawmaker, who denies the accusation, was arrested a month later and has been in jail for the past two years. The rape case is pending before a local court in Prayagraj.

In November of last year, however, the MP’s brother registered a police complaint accusing the woman of forgery and leading to a court issuing a non-bailable arrest warrant against her earlier this month. The woman called the accusation "false" and said that ever since she has been harassed by police officials and even a judge, who she has alleged are colluding with the MP. [BBC] [The Telegraph, $]

On August 16, then she and a friend set themselves on fire outside the Supreme Court in New Delhi. They were taken to hospital with severe burns. The man died on August 21; the woman succumbed three days later. [The Indian Express]

Earlier this month, hundreds of people have protested in New Delhi for several days straight, as outrage built over the alleged gang rape, murder and forced cremation of a nine-year-old girl from one of India’s most oppressed castes. [AiR No. 32, August/2021, 2]

Rape and sexual harassment of women have been in the spotlight in India since December 2012 when a woman was gang-raped by six men on a bus in the capital. She died a few days later from her injuries, triggering global condemnation.

But despite the increased scrutiny, there not been a significant decline in sexual crimes against women. In 2018, police recorded 33,977 cases of rape in India – an average of a rape every 15 minutes. Campaigners say the actual numbers are much higher as many cases go unreported.

India: Top commander and deputy of militant group killed in India-administered Kashmir

(lm) Indian security forces last week killed two senior rebel commanders and three other three other militants in two separate counterinsurgency operations in Indian-administered Kashmir.

On August 23, a team of counterinsurgency police fatally shot the chief of The Resistance Front and his deputy in the region’s main city of Srinagar. Police say the group is an offshoot of the Pakistan-based terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba, which is accused by India and the United States of plotting the 2008 Mumbai attacks that left at least 174 people dead and more than 300 wounded. The same day, police and soldiers raided a village in the northwestern Sopore area and engaged at least three militants hiding in a house in a gun battle, which ended the following day. [CNN] [Associated Press]

The killings come during an intensified government offensive against anti-India rebels in the territory. Rebels have also killed several members of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party in the region and carried out attacks on Indian troops.

Nepal: Communist Party of Nepal (CPN) (Unified Socialist) to join government coalition

(lm) The newly created Communist Party of Nepal (CPN) (Unified Socialist) will be joining the ruling coalition government, the party’s chairman, Madhav Kumar Nepal, announced on August 26, a day after the country’s Election Commission had officially recognized the party. [The Himalayan Times]

The CPN (Unified Socialist), a breakaway faction of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) of former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, is one of two new political parties registered last week after the country’s President Bidhya Devi Bhandari promulgated an ordinance that significantly facilitated party split. [AiR No. 34, August/2021, 4]

Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba’s ruling coalition now comprises of six parties – Nepali Congress; Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre); People’s Socialist Party, Nepal; People's Socialist Party, Nepal (Democratic); and (CPN) (Unified Socialist) – and controls 175 seats in the 275-member House of Representatives.

Nepal: President approves Prabhu Ram Sharma as new Army Chief

(lm) Nepal’s President and ceremonial head of state Bidhya Devi Bhandari last week approved the Cabinet’s recommendation to appoint General Prabhu Ram Sharma as Chief of Army Staff (COAS) of the Nepalese Armed Forces. Sharma, who is currently serving as acting COAS, will assume his position after the three-year term of incumbent Army Chief Purna Chandra Thapa expires on September 9. [Asia News International]

Pakistan: Suicide bombing aimed at convoy of Chinese engineers

(lm) A deadly suicide bombing targeting Chinese engineers in Pakistan’s southwestern province of Balochistan has renewed concerns in Beijing over a worsening security situation in the region, and cast doubt on the future of China’s ambitious projects in Pakistan and neighboring Afghanistan. [South China Morning Post]

On August 20, a motorcade carrying Chinese personnel working on an expressway supporting in Gwadar, the fulcrum of $50 billion in projects linked to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), was attacked by a suicide bomber, with two local children killed, and one Chinese worker and two other Pakistanis injured. [Reuters]

Hours after the bombing, the separatist Baloch Liberation Army, an outlawed militant organization that wages a violent armed struggle for separation of Balochistan from Pakistan, claimed responsibility for the attack.

China on August 23 called on Pakistan to “severely punish” the perpetrators and “earnestly protect the safety of Chinese nationals, organisations and projects” in the country. [Hindustan Times]

This attack followed another suicide attack on July 14 that targeted a two-bus convoy transporting Chinese and Pakistani workers to the World Bank-funded Dasu Hydropower project in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, killing nine Chinese nationals [see AiR No. 29, July/2021, 3]. Islamabad later said the country’s leading Taliban group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan had carried out the attack, but also claimed to have data evidence proving that India’s Research and Analysis Wing and Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security had also been involved [see AiR No. 33, August/2021, 3].

The July 14 attack had already deepened concerns among Chinese companies and workers, particularly amid the instability in neighboring Afghanistan and the then-immanent Taliban takeover. Two weeks after the bombing, China on July 28 hosted nine-member Taliban delegation in the city of Tianjin and sought a commitment from the militants to “make a clean break” with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, a Muslim separatist group founded by militant Uighurs in Xinjiang [see AiR No. 31, August/2021, 1].

Sri Lanka: President appoints expert panel to advise on contentious PTA

(egm/lm) Sri Lanka’s President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has appointed an advisory board to make recommendations on the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) that some Western nations and international rights groups claim has been used to suppress minorities and silence dissent.

Announced on August 25, the panel comprises of retired Chief Justice Asoka de Silva, retired High Court Judge A.A.R. Heiyanthuduwa and retired Solicitor General Suhada Gamalath. The legal experts are expected to make recommendations and advise the president on investigation, release, granting of bail and future action related to the persons imprisoned on charges of terrorist activity and detained under detention orders. [ColomboPage]

Prior to the appointment of this board, individuals arrested under suspicions of terrorism had not been granted the opportunity to appeal for their rights and present their case before being imprisoned under the PTA. [Daily Mirror]

Timing and context of the move assume added significance, for it comes just weeks before the 48th Regular Session of the United Nations Human Right Council (UN HRC), during which the Rajapaksa administration will have to explain some steps it has taken to address past human rights violations. [EconomyNext]

Since the European Parliament adopted a resolution in June to consider temporarily withdrawing Sri Lanka’s GSP+ status, Colombo has taken a step back on its stance of engaging the international community which had pushed Sri Lanka to address some key human rights concerns. The EU Parliament’s key demand was to “amend the PTA […] immediately”, claiming the legislation has been systematically used for arbitrary arrests and the detention of minority groups in Sri Lanka. [AiR No. 11, March/2021, 3]

Later in June, the UN HRC’s Core Group on Sri Lanka comprising Canada, Germany, Malawi, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and the United Kingdom, expressed concern over what it called a “lack of progress” in addressing the legacies of the Sri Lankan Civil War (1983 to 2009) and protecting human rights. [AiR No. 26, June/2021, 5]

Sri Lanka: Tamil rights group demand international arbitration to find a just solution

(egm/lm) In a joint statement published on August 23, leading international Tamil rights groups call upon their respective governments, as well as international and regional powers, to intervene to find a “just solution to the long-lasting Tamil National Question in Sri Lanka”. [Tamil Guardian]

In their statement, the diaspora organizations highlight their right as stakeholders to participate in “any negotiations and formulations of a political solution to bring last peace and coexistence of the multi-ethnic and multi-religious communities in Sri Lanka”.

Timing and context of the statement are of particular significance, for it comes just weeks before the 48th Regular Session of the United Nations Human Right Council (UN HRC), during which the Rajapaksa administration will have to explain his country’s progress in matters of reconciliation and accountability. The forthcoming report on the follow up visits to Sri Lanka is also expected to cover the setbacks made during the current administration in implementing prior recommendations concerning the increasing militarization of the country and the ongoing harassment of victims and human rights defenders. [United Nations Human Rights Council]

During its 46th Regular Session held in February and March, the UN HRC had decisively approved a mandate to collect information and evidence of war crimes committed during the Sri Lankan Civil War (1983 to 2009), which killed more than 100,000 civilians and over 50,000 fighters from both sides of the conflict. [AiR No. 13, March/2021, 5]

Sri Lanka: IGP presents progress of investigations into Easter Sunday bombings

(egm) The six suicide bomb attacks on Easter Sunday in 2019 belonged to a larger chain of pre-planned terrorist incidents, Sri Lanka’s inspector General of police (IGP) said in a special video statement on the progress of the investigations into the incident. [ColomboPage]

These incidents were previously probed as isolated events, the IGP said, adding that the lack of coordination between the investigating units led to a missed opportunity to reveal the connection. According to the IGP, the previous investigating bodies had also assumed that a self-motivated pro-ISIS group in the country had acted independently, without foreign involvement. [Ada Derana]

Under the new investigating bodies, 723 suspects have been arrested in connection with the bombings; however, 311 of them have been further detained or remanded for interrogations.

Earlier this month, the government filed 23,270 charges against 25 people in connection with the 2019 Easter Sunday suicide bomb attacks. The charges – filed under the country’s anti-terror law – include conspiring to murder, aiding and abetting, collecting arms and ammunition, and attempted murder. The attorney general also asked the chief justice to appoint a special three-member high court bench to hear the cases speedily.

Sri Lanka updates National Environmental Policy to address climate change issues

(egm) Sri Lanka’s Environment Minister requested officials to develop an updated National Environmental Policy (NEP) for the protection of the environment that will remain unaltered regardless of government or ministerial changes. Following a consultative process, said policy seeks to take into account the advice and different views of various stakeholders and environmental experts while guiding environment-related decisions at the national and sub-national level. [Daily Mirror]

Ministry Secretary Dr. Anil Jasinghe has been tasked by Environmental Minister Hon. Mahinda Amaraweera with the responsibility of developing the amended NEP by the end of 2021 to address the new environmental challenges that have emerged since the previous formulation of the NEP in 2003. This policy represents the national commitment to the environment and serves as a guide to manage the current difficulties generated by climate change and adapt future development projects to an environmentally conscious model. [The Ministry of Environment of Sri Lanka]

The upcoming policy will prioritize the climate change related issues that have emerged amongst the current backdrop of increasing natural disasters such as droughts, floods and landslides. These extreme weather occurrences addressed in the policy are presented as a threat to the livelihoods of vulnerable communities which mainly fall within the agricultural sector and can be found in disaster prone areas such as coastal zones. According to a recent Climate Risk Country Profile report submitted by The World Bank Group and the Asian Development Bank, the losses projected by climate change are expected to severely affect Sri Lanka’s poorest groups and heighten social inequalities amongst rural and urban regions [see Climate Change Knowledge Portal]. [Open Government Partnership]

Sri Lanka: Veteran politician Mangala Samaraweera passes away

(egm) Mangala Samaraweera, a veteran Sri Lankan politician passed away on August 24 at a private hospital in Colombo while receiving treatment for COVID-19. During his lifetime he held prominent positions in various governments, including under Chandrika Kumaratunga, Mahinda Rajapaksa and Maithripala Sirisena. [Tamil Guardian] [The Hindu]

His death came amidst a fourth wave of the pandemic which has driven a nation-wide lockdown to control the surging number of cases which were reported on August 28 to have reached a total number of 421,557. [DailyMirror] [Xinhua News Agency]

Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in Southeast Asia 

Indonesia: Low presidential approval rates amid alleged elite preference in vaccinations

(nd) Political elites have admitted to have been administered a third dose of Covid-19 vaccines, while most of the citizens have not received their first shot. During a meeting with President Joko Widodo, which was live streamed, Military Chief Hadi Tjahjanto and East Kalimantan Governor Isran Noor said that they received booster shots, which are officially only given to healthcare workers at the moment. The video was later taken offline.

Only 22% of its 270 million population have received their first Covid-19 shots as of last week, with just 12% being fully inoculated. [Bloomberg] This comes amid Widodo’s approval ratings having fallen to the lowest in five years, likely due to the immense surge in Covid-19 cases. The survey, which was conducted between July 30 and August 4, involved 1,220 respondents and showed that only 59% of respondents were satisfied with the president. Indonesia’s Covid-19 cases and casualties are among the highest in Asia, and with more than 50% of Indonesians employed in the informal sector, social restrictions have had drastic economic effects on people’s livelihood. [Reuters]

Indonesia: Papuans reject vaccination amid distrust

(nd) Papuans have rejected Covid-19 vaccinations out of their distrust and fear towards the Indonesian army. Some argued Indonesia’s military will use the inoculation program to poison and wipe Papuans. In this setting, the decades of conflict, ongoing allegations of racism and human rights abuses are fueling conspiracy theories.

Earlier, Papua navigated rather well through the health crisis, which could be overturned by rising cases of the Delta variant and an underfunded health system unable to manage a higher case load. Local activists have called on the central government to raise the number of less than 30,000 inoculated Papuans, who in turn would only accept a dose administered directly by the World Health Organization. The armed forces are tasked to support the nationwide vaccination drive, including in Papua.

Following an UN-sponsored vote, which is widely claimed rigged due to its low participation rate, Indonesia took over the former Dutch colony in 1960, spiking decades of violent conflict and ongoing calls for independence. Papuans routinely face anti-black discrimination. Recent protests against the vaccination program were answered heavily by a high number of security forces, spiking rumors it was rather meant to limit independence-seeking Papuans’ movements than reduce infections. Tension in the region was on the rise since rebels assassinated Indonesia’s top intelligence chief in April, prompting a crackdown and the designation of local separatists as “terrorists”. [South China Morning Post] [See also AiR No. 34, August/2021, 4, AiR No. 18, May/2021, 1]

Laos: President urges Party’s propaganda organ to work harder

(ct/lm) President and General Secretary of the ruling Lao People's Revolutionary Party (LPRP) Thongloun Sisoulith told the propaganda body of the LPRP’s Central Committee to be more diligent in properly advocating the Party’s guidelines and policy. Speaking at the fifth congress of the Propaganda and Training Board, Sisoulith told called on participants to ensure that propaganda and training matters are more efficient and thorough. [Vientiane Times]

Malaysia: New cabinet comprised of old ministers

(nd) Newly appointed Malaysian Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob unveiled his cabinet last week, re-appointing several ministers from the previous administration. Tengku Zafrul Aziz was finance minister already in Muhyiddin's administration, besides four other ministers to head the international trade, defense, works and education portfolios, who have all served before. Four ministers from Muhyiddin's cabinet were not reappointed, while only five new ministers were announced, who have, however, served as ministers in previous cabinets.

Both Umno and its splinter Bersatu were accorded 10 posts each, while leaving out key figures from Umno, who have been accused or found guilty of corruption, such as former Prime Minister Najib Razak, currently appealing his conviction connected to the 1MDB finance scandal, and party President Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, facing separate allegations. In his speech, Ismail Sabri argued this way stability could be maintained in an effort to prioritize the interests and safety of the Malaysian people. The unchanged personnel, however, have caused concern whether the new cabinet will be able to charge the instable politics Malaysia has experienced for months.

Amid increasing criticism of the government’s handling of the health crisis, Ismail Sabri succeeded Muhyiddin Yassin who resigned after losing his razor-thin majority in parliament. Malaysia has the highest per capita Covid-19 infection rate in the region, while half of its population is fully vaccinated. [Malay Mail 1] [Malay Mail 2] [South China Morning Post] [Reuters] [Nikkei Asia]

Myanmar: NUG to promise justice for Rohingya

(nd) Marking the fourth anniversary of the beginning of the 2017 attacks against the Rohingya, Myanmar’s shadow National Unity Government (NUG), expressed sympathy for the displaced and vowed to hold the military accountable for its crimes not only against the Rohingya but against other people in Myanmar.

Having experienced the brutal junta crackdown in the past months, with at least 1,016 people killed, people in Myanmar have become more empathetic to the Rohingya cause, sharing an enemy with respect to the military. Also, the UNG’s stance towards the Muslim majority will have constituted to it. In June, NUG announced plans to amend the constitution by repealing the 1982 Citizenship Law to give citizenship to the Rohingya, who are not recognized as an official ethnic group in Myanmar and are often viewed as illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. The plans represent a sharp policy charge from ousted leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

The NUG, opposing the military junta in Myanmar, is comprised of ousted politicians, activists and representatives from ethnic minority groups, reiterated the voluntary and safe repatriation of Rohingya to remain top priority. Their call coincided with other civil society organizations and women's rights groups expression of solidarity with the Rohingya plight. The military campaign against the Rohingya has been described by international rights groups and foreign governments as constituting acts of “genocide” and “crimes against humanity.” The statement also called for an immediate referral of the junta to the International Criminal Court (ICC), accepting ICC jurisdiction for acts committed prior to 2002. Myanmar is not a party to the Rome Statute that formed the ICC, so the court currently does not have jurisdiction, therefore an investigation could only cover acts committed in Bangladesh.

While activists praised the NUG’s promises with respect to the Rohingya, which is politically significant given that the NUG includes a number of former ministers from the ousted National League for Democracy (NLD) government, arguably complicit in the injustice against the Rohingya, it is unlikely that the NUG’s decision to empower the ICC can be implemented. Last week, growing frustration among young activists was reported, arguing the NUG’s “lack of progress in establishing itself as a genuine rival administration to the military regime, let alone removing the Tatmadaw from power”, asserting its leadership was merely paying lip service.

Still, only the military has control of Myanmar’s airspace and the country’s central regions, despite the increasing instances of armed resistance, while the NGU controls no sovereign territory. Also, time could prove to be an enemy for the shadow government, risking to slide into indifference. [UCA News] [Benar News] [The Diplomat]

Myanmar: Arakan Army to administer Rakhine state effectively independently

(nd) In a step closer to their goal of sovereignty, the rebel Arakan Army’s (AA) political wing United League of Arakan (ULA) has expanded its administrative and judicial mechanisms across Rakhine State, Western Myanmar. Hundreds of its people are effectively administering the region independently of the military junta. In a bid to become an autonomous Rakhine State, AA tries to involve the state’s entire population, including the Rohingya Muslims, in administrative roles and police work, which marks an unprecedented approach. According to observers, this inclusive take is likely to be successful.

Since 2018, AA has been fighting for greater autonomy and has a powerful stand, illustrated by the junta removing AA from its list of terrorist groups in March, designated as such by the NLD-led government of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. The conflict between AA and the military had displaced more than 230,000 civilians, seriously injured or killed nearly 1,000 by artillery shelling, gunshots, and landmine explosions, including more than 170 children. The NLD government also excluded AA from its peace conference, blocked humanitarian assistance, and canceled the November 2020 national election in large parts of Rakhine State for “security reasons”. This last move has prompted many Rakhine state residents to support AA, which has since the coup topped up its efforts to establish an independent administration. With inter alia own dispute resolution mechanisms, AA increased trust among residents who endured years of discrimination by successive central governments. [The Diplomat]

Myanmar: Genocide law passed

(nd) In a move widely perceived as an attempt to mitigate international pressure, the junta has added a genocide law to the country’s colonial-era Penal Code. The addition carries the death penalty for murders committed with the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial or religious group, including other crimes committed with genocidal purpose. Additional changes were made to the Code of Criminal Procedures to allow arrest of suspects without a warrant and to rule out the possibility of bail.

The announcement coincided with an online campaign marking the fourth anniversary of the beginning of attacks against Rohingyas in 2017. [See article above] The regime faces a genocide charge at a United Nations court for the military’s atrocities against the Rohingya, filed in 2019 by The Gambia representing the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. Accusations were denied both by the former National League for Democracy government and the junta. In early 2020, the ICJ ordered Myanmar to comply with four provisional measures as requested by The Gambia, including taking steps to prevent genocide, ensuring that the military and its affiliates do not such acts, preserve evidence on such acts and provide regular progress updates. [The Irrawaddy]

Myanmar: Troop movements in Karen State

(nd) The military junta stepped up its reinforcements of troops to Karen and Kachin states in eastern and northern Myanmar, amid calls by the US and other Western countries. Likewise, hundreds of troops by the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) have reportedly deployed troops, with fights expected to erupt upon entering by the military forces. Within this month, military activity has increased with in both states. The Kachin Independence Organization, the political wing of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), has called for negotiations to avoid fighting. Following the military coup, some KNLA brigades reportedly sheltered striking civil servants and provided military training to volunteers in an effort to fight the junta.

The troop mobilization of the military came after the National Unity Government’s (NUG) announcement to set a date for a “D-Day” operation to oust the military regime through an uprising supported by a network of People’s Defense Force (PDF) militia groups and other allies.

Over the weekend, the military regime had to suffer casualties in fights with ethnic armed groups in Karen, Kayah, Shan and Kachin states. [The Irrawaddy 1]

According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), there are 205,260 internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Myanmar, most of whom are in Kayin, Kayah, Shan and Chin states, joined by some 500,000 refugees from the decades old conflict already accounted for by late 2020. The most recent 3,000 refugees in Kayah and Kayin states are not included in these figures yet.

Following yet unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud leading to the landslide victory by the National League for Democracy (NLD) in the country’s November 2020 general election, the military took over in a coup on February 1, with reported casualties of 1,016 and 5,937 arrested. According to political analysts, the end of the rainy season could warrant for intensified fighting, with the military forces aiming to take control over the peripheric areas of the country controlled by ethnic armies. [UCA News] [Radio Free Asia] [The Irrawaddy 2] [The Irrawaddy 3]

Myanmar: Shadow police force in Kayah state

(nd) Police officer on strike in Kayah State have formed a shadow police force to work together with anti-regime groups. The Karenni State Police (KSP) was formed two weeks ago, led by the Karenni State Consultative Council (KSCC), and consists of 320 police defects.

KSCC consists of elected lawmakers and representatives of political parties, ethnic armed organizations and civil society groups, and was formed in April. Currently, KSCC is negotiating with the National Unity Government for ways to cooperate to fight the military regime. While KSCC shall care for the administrative, legislative and judicial issues in Kayah, KSP will be tasked with law enforcement, while still working at capacity-building and training, for example with respect to federalism. [The Irrawaddy]

Myanmar: Highest number of soldier defections

(nd) Recently, the 300,000-strong military has endured a high number of defections. Around 2,000 soldiers and police have recently joined the country’s Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) after the military coup in February, one third of which are military personnel. Most military personnel are privates and sergeants, officers from lieutenants to majors account for about 100.

In absolute terms, the number might be small, but is unprecedented in Myanmar’s military history, when in a pro-democracy uprising in 1988 against dictator Ne Win some soldiers joined the protests. According to ex-army officers, the military now is at the brink of splitting. Cited as reasons were the brutality of the regime against peaceful protestors, reaching a death toll of currently more than 1,000. Another military defector said his fellow soldiers were not following the code of conduct but behaved like “thugs with guns”, further demolishing the image of the military, and a reason for their peers to follow the CDM. Additionally, defectors were appalled by injustices, human rights violations and the realization that the coup leaders would put their personal benefits before the country or the military institution itself.

International and local observers argue, democracy cannot be reached without the split in the military, making way to fight deeply entrenched corruption and oppression. Also, neither ethnic armed groups nor the armed people resistance will be enough to defeat the regime.

Reception of defection is positive, with donations made by the public to support them. Additionally, the National Unity Government (NUG) issued a statement to entice more soldiers to defect, promising they can join the federal army and keep their original positions and pension allowances. [The Irrawaddy]

Myanmar: Series of explosions in Yangon and Mandalay

(nd) On Monday, series of explosions in at least 12 locations in Yangon and Mandalay were reported. The attacks targeted inter alia offices of the National League for Democracy (NLD) party and the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). The NLD offices were raided by junta forces before the explosion. No casualties were reported. Allegedly responsible for the attack are members of Pyu Saw Htee groups, which are trained and armed by the military regime.

Soon after the coup, armed resistance against the military regime amid its crackdown on protesters was formed. As a response to this, the regime started to train the Pyu Saw Htee groups, who installed bombs in schools and government offices, and killed a number of protesters, including NLD members, already. [The Irrawaddy]

Myanmar: Forced vaccinations for factory workers

(nd) Factory workers in Yangon are forced to get a vaccination, or face a pink slip. While those willing to take the vaccinations were offered 5,000 kyats (U.S. $3), refusing to do so is met with the threat of being fired. Workers are wary of side effects and claim that no information about the vaccination is provided to them. Reportedly, this is happening in many factories. The vaccine used is Chinese-made Sinopharm, which was shipped in millions. Workers said they also refused because they were not granted a sick day if they fall ill after the inoculation.

Amid the military coup and its repercussions, the health care sector was commented to be at the brink of collapse, with hospitals working at maximum capacity. [Radio Free Asia]

Philippines: Bill to raise sex consent age, introduce gender-neutral language

(nd) Two senators endorsed the passage of a bill to increase the age for determining statutory rape from 12 to 16 years of age and provide a gender-neutral protection to children. Senate Bill (SB) 2332 was supported by Senator Richard "Dick" Gordon and Senate Majority Leader Juan Miguel "Migz" Zubiri. The wording of the law will now reflect that rape is committed "by a person against any person" instead of the previous "by a man who shall have carnal knowledge of a woman."

A study by the government supported by the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund Philippines in 2015 asked 3,866 children and young people aged 13 to 24, showing that one-in-four children (24.9 percent) reportedly suffered from any form of sexual violence in any setting. Data from the Department of Social Welfare and Development collected between 2015 and 2017 showed that most victims of rape and child incest were between the ages of 14 and below 18, which is way above the current minimum age of under 12 years old. Additionally, about 17.1 percent of children from 13 to 18 years old experienced any form of sexual violence while growing up, according to a 2020 National Bureau of Investigation report. [The Manila Times]

Philippines: Inner PDP-Laban conflict to continue

(nd) In the latest episode of the ongoing rift between two factions of the ruling PDP-Laban party, the group led by boxer Emmanuel “Manny” Pacquiao tried to remove President Rodrigo Duterte as party chairman by electing their own. Duterte’s supporters subsequently denied legitimacy to the vote, urging Duterte remained chairman. Pacquiao and his allies in the party elected Senator Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel III as chairman.

The tension began when Pacquiao was elected as the party’s president. In June, Duterte and Pacquiao parted over the latter’s criticism of the president’s stance on the South China Sea. Last month, Pacquiao was ousted as party president. His faction is supporting Pacquiao’s potential presidential bid, while the Duterte group is pushing for a Senator Christopher “Bong” Go and President Duterte tandem. The head of the Philippines’ election commission announced to decide based on documents and the party’s constitution, which faction is the legitimate representative of PDP-Laban. [Manila Bulletin] [South China Morning Post]

On Monday, Go declined the endorsement, which according to observers opens doors for Sara Duterte once again. After the daughter-father tandem topped opinion polls, Rodrigo Duterte openly favored Bong over her, prompting a tough statement. The relatively independent-minded daughter has established parallel parties and political coalitions, most prominently the Mindanao-based but nationally oriented Hugpong ng Pagbabago (HNP), and is now bidding for her own presidency, which prompted spokesman Harry Duque to reassure there was neither a rift in the party not the First family. This, however, makes way for another top contender, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr, son of former dictator, is in talks with the competing factions of PDP-Laban, possibly running as Sara Duterte’s vice president. [Voice of America] [Asia Times]

Singapore: Lee to balance protection of local workforce against racial harmony

(nd) In a key policy speech, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong reiterated to tighten restrictions on foreign workers, which have created tension in the usually open city state.

Visa criteria for expats shall be raised, salaries of low-income workers increased and companies held accountable for hiring practices, mostly in the tech and financial sector, with an unfair advantage to the local workforce. With respect to the latter, Lee admitted that such workers were on short supply and sometimes qualification would not be met locally. Still, Lee announced to introduce anti-discrimination laws for the workplace and to set up a tribunal for workers to call on.

Other measures to achieve higher salaries for Singaporeans include making companies who hire foreigners pay all their local staff a qualifying salary of at least S$1,400 ($1,040) a month, irrespective of how many foreigners are employed. Lee also promised more protection for low-wage workers who have been on the frontline during the pandemic, specifically pointing to the food delivery apps, such as Delivery Hero SE’s Foodpanda, Grab Holdings Inc. and Deliveroo Plc, whose delivery workers have no employment contracts, lack basic job protections and earn an income to hardly be able to afford housing, healthcare and retirement, and whose salary top-ups and pension contributions from the government have cost about S$850 million yearly, and rising.

Amid pandemic-induced shutdowns and economic downturn, foreign labor created tension and fueled resentments over foreigners. Therefore, a large part of the speech was dedicated to the topic of racial harmony, announcing new legislation to deal with such issues. Until now, Singapore has relied on the colonial-era sedition act to deal with serious offenses involving hate crimes or racial enmity, which critics said were used to suppress criticism. [Bloomberg] [South China Morning Post]

Timor-Leste: Health system threatened to collapse

(nd) A recent spike in Covid-19 cases has urged the government to say the country’s health system is “in danger of collapsing”. Most new infections are in connection with the Delta variant. Additionally, over 100 medical workers are infected with the virus. The government of Prime Minister Taur Matan Ruak has called for international aid for logistics and resources. Case numbers totaled to 14,935, with 3,816 still active. [UCA News]

Thailand: Alleged torture and killing of drug suspect prompts police reform and anti-torture legislation

(pr) The alleged torture and killing of a drug suspect caught public attention and have intensified calls for police reform and an anti-torture law. A CCTV footage posted online showed police officers including Thitisan “Chief Joe” Uttanapol trying to extort $60,000 from a drug suspect. Police officers wrapped the suspect’s head with a plastic bag suffocating him and beat him until he lost consciousness. Initial police reports state that he died of drug overdose. [BBC] [The Diplomat] The full autopsy report submitted to the police on August 30 stated suffocation as the cause of death. [Bangkok Post 1]

Thitisan fled but subsequently surrendered himself to the police. All officers shown in the footage have also been arrested. In a press conference, Thitisan denied the extortion of money as the motive. He said he did it to expand the investigation and the death of the suspect was unintentional. [Bangkok Post 2] In the subsequent police questioning, he denied all accusations against him and vowed to fight in court. [Bangkok Post 3]

He is also to be investigated for corruption after a police search of his home revealed that he possessed 30 cars, 13 of which are luxury cars with a total worth more than $3 million. The Customs Department said he handled 368 car smuggling cases from 2011-2017. The discovery prompted an investigation by the National Anti-Corruption Commission for abuse of authority and unusual wealth. As a police colonel, he received a salary of approximately $1225 per month. [Bangkok Post 4]

The incident has intensified calls for police reform. A government-sponsored police structural reform bill is currently under the scrutiny of a 45-member examination panel. The bill proposed the establishment of a committee to consider complaints against police accused of malfeasance. A member of the panel vetting the bill said the examination was slow as members of the panel had conflicting views. Examination is unlikely to be done by the current parliamentary session. He also criticized the bill as being unclear and lacking substance. Other lawmakers criticized the bill as not having not sufficiently addressed problems of police investigation and interrogation.

Meanwhile, a former Democrat lawmaker blamed Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha, as the chair of the Police Commission that oversees the Royal Thai Police, for delays on police reform. Longstanding issues such as position-buying, appointments not based on seniority and qualifications, and corruption remain unsolved. Under the Constitution, reforms on specific fields including police reform must be completed within one year from the promulgation of the charter, by April 2018. [Bangkok Post 5]

As for anti-torture law, Thailand still does not have a specific legislation, which deals with torture committed by state officials despite having acceded to the Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment since 2007.

Four bills on torture and enforced disappearance are still awaiting to be tabled for parliamentary consideration, including the government-sponsored “Prevention and Suppression of Torture and Enforced Disappearance Bill”, which was approved by the Cabinet in June last year. The bill criminalizes torture and enforced disappearances committed by state officials and offers compensation for injuries from the crime. [No. 25, June/2021, 4]

Wirach Ratanasate, chief government whip said the draft is likely to be considered by Parliament in the first reading before the current parliamentary session ends on September 18. A bill-scrutiny panel will review the bill before the next parliamentary session begins in November. If all goes according to the timeline, the bill will be enacted by the end of the year. [Bangkokbiznews, in Thai]

Thailand: Anti-government protests to elevate their activity as police eyes legal action against parents

(pr) Protest leaders declared to elevate the intensity of protests and to switch back from car mobs to daily demonstrations. Police anticipated such move as they considered to take legal action under child protection law against parents of some protestors, who are still minors, for not controlling their children’s actions. [Bangkok Post 1]

Over the weekend, police have arrested seven men who have confessed to making small improvised explosives to be used in the anti-government protests. Protests held on several days last week also ended in clashes. [Bangkok Post 2] The more aggressive twist has been criticized as being merely provokers of violence, which is likely to undermine the democracy movement by reducing its legitimacy and provide the government with an excuse to deploy armed forces. [see, AiR No. 33, August/2021, 3] Others view it as part of a two-pronged strategy to employ peaceful and violent protests against the government. The more violent methods are employed by the Thalu Gas Group (Through the Sky), composed mainly of vocational students and working-class teenagers. [Thai PBS World]
United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) announced to hold car mob rallies all week to further pressure Prime Minister Prayut to resign. [Bangkok Post 3] [Bangkok Post 4]  The UDD, also referred to as red-shirts, founded in 2006, demonstrated in parts in favor of ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, in parts in favor of progressive reforms of the governance system.

Anti-government protests, composed of many groups including the youth, have become more violent in the past few weeks. With many leaders detained, the leaderless movement has become more fragmented. Some have started to use ping pong bombs, firecrackers, small improvised explosives, rocks, and marbles against the crowd control police while the latter used water cannons, tear gas, and rubber bullets. [see, AiR No. 34, August/2021, 4] Core demands of the protests are the resignation of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha, institutional and monarchy reform, and better management and handling of the pandemic.

Thailand: Date for no-confidence debate set 

(pr) In a tripartite meeting, representatives of government, opposition, and cabinet have agreed to set August 31-September 4 as dates for censure debate against the government, mainly for its mishandling of the pandemic. [Bangkok Post 1]

Pheu Thai Party of the opposition also invited the public, as a symbolic gesture, to cast their votes online by the end of the censure debate whether they have confidence in the current government. [Thai PBS World] 

The censure debate targets six ministers including Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha, and Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who as cabinet members are primarily responsible for handling the COVID-19 crisis. [see, AiR No. 33, August/2021, 3]

While Prayuth has successfully managed two previous censure debates and is likely to survive Saturday’s vote of no-confidence, it is likely to fuel anger on the streets. [Reuters] The government had been widely criticized for their slow vaccination roll-out and failure to provide risk diversification in vaccine procurement, the import of vaccines with low efficacy, as well as misallocation of medical resources. [see, AiR No. 29, July/2021, 3] Statistically, a majority of the 1.1 million infections came from the third-wave after April this year. Infection rates have shown signs of slowing down after lockdown measures were put into effect. About 9% of the country’s 66 million population has been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. [Bangkok Post 2]

Thailand: Joint sitting of Parliament passed charter amendment bill in second reading

(pr) A joint sitting of Parliament approved the constitutional amendment bill in the second reading with 357 to 42 votes and 86 abstentions. [Bangkok Post 1] After the bill passed the first reading, the bill scrutiny panel proposed amendments to nine sections to be considered by Parliament but it decided to drop five sections, which it considered unnecessary potentially raising legal complications. [Bangkok Post 2]

The bill, which passed the first reading in June, proposes amendments to Sections 83 and 91 to adjust the proportions of lawmakers from currently 350 constituency MPs and 150 party-list MPs to 400 and 100, respectively. It also sought to revert from the current single ballot for constituency and party-list MPs to two separate ballots – a system that is believed to benefit large and well-known parties capable of mounting energetic nation-wide election campaigns. [see, AiR No. 33, August/2021, 3]

Thailand: NACC reaffirms decision on asset disclosure, contradicting the OIC

(pr) The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) reaffirmed its decision to not disclose the assets of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha and Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam, contradicting the ruling of the Official Information Commission (OIC).

The NACC President said the NACC had reviewed anti-corruption and constitutional laws and decided that it had no authority to disclose assets because data protection law applies in case of voluntary disclosure. The NACC will inform the OIC of the differing interpretations of law. [Thairath, in Thai]
Both politicians voluntarily disclosed their assets for evidentiary purposes even though they were not legally obliged by anti-corruption law. Disclosure might result in the NACC violating criminal law on malfeasance or wrongful exercise of duties. [The Nation]

Previously, the OIC ruled that the NACC is obliged to reveal information on the assets of the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister when requested, as the public has the right under the constitution to seek access to the information. [see, AiR No. 32, August/2021, 2]

Thailand: Rights organization urge drop of criminal defamation charges against human rights defenders

(pr) Human rights non-profit organization Fortify Rights urged authorities to drop criminal defamation charges against human rights defenders filed by a Thai chicken company, viewing such lawsuits as judicial harassment.

A fortnight ago, the court agreed to proceed with the trial hearing against the former National Human Rights Commissioner, and human rights defender Angkhana Neelapaijit. The first hearing is set for October 26. In 2019, the chicken company Thammakaset filed the lawsuit alleging that two of her online tweets defamed the company. [see, AiR No. 53, December/2019, 5] Angkhana disagreed with the court’s decision for the case to proceed claiming that she was expressing her opinions in good faith and the case should have been dropped citing the National Action Plan on Business and Human Rights, which includes commitments to protect human rights defenders from judicial harassment.

According to Fortify Rights, “since 2016, Thammakaset has brought at least 37 complaints against 22 human rights defenders. The courts have mostly dismissed or ruled against the company in most cases”. [Prachatai English]

Vietnam: Prime Minister asks for solutions to exploit and optimize land resources

(ct) Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh called for finding solutions to exploit and optimize land resources during the period of acceleration of the renovation work to make Vietnam soon a predominantly industrialized and modern-oriented country.

Speaking at a conference to gather opinions on the draft Consolidated Report on the Implementation of Resolution No.19-NQ/TW of the 6th Plenum of the XIth Mandate Party Central Committee on Policy Renovation and land laws, the head of government praised the achievements in this area after ten years of implementation of Resolution No.19-NQ/TW. During the meeting, the PM asked the delegates to evaluate the results obtained, the limits, their causes as well as to decide the objectives, the tasks and the major solutions in the future.

The Secretariat of the Communist Party of Vietnam issued a decision to establish a Steering Committee to summarise the 10 years of implementation of Resolution 19-NQ/TW. The Standing Steering Committee has organised 34 meetings, seminars, conferences and workshops to consult agencies, organisations, experts and managers in the field of land. [Việt Nam News]

Vietnam: More than 3,000 prison inmates set free ahead of September 2

(ct) State President Nguyen Xuan Phuc has approved a decision to release 3,026 inmates who had performed well during their prison terms. Since the Amnesty Law amended in 2018 took effect, this is the first time in four years the President has granted special amnesty. [Voice of Vietnam]

The decision will come into effect on September 1, a day before Vietnam observers its National Day to commemorate President Hồ Chí Minh reading the Declarations of Independence of Vietnam in Hanoi in 1945.

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China-US tensions over Afghanistan

(dql) Against the backdrop of last week’s deadly suicide bombings in Kabul, for which ISIS claimed responsibility, the retaliatory attack of the US on ISIS and the withdrawal of the last troops from Afghanistan, China on Monday abstained from voting on a key resolution passed by the UN Security Council on Afghanistan while making the US responsible for creating “chaos” in the country because of its disorderly withdrawal. The resolution demanding that the Afghan territory “not be used to threaten or attack any country or to shelter or train terrorists,” was adopted after 13 countries voted in favor of it with Russia also deciding to abstain from voting. [Republic World]

The move points to a potential new front of Sino-US tensions and is the latest in a string of recent diplomatic efforts of China to position itself as a leading actor in the re-building of the country. In July China hosted two days of consultations with a delegation of nine Taliban leaders in the northeastern Chinese city of Tianjin, significantly raising the group’s international stature at a time when the group’s military ascendancy in Afghanistan has grown [see AiR No. 31, August/2021, 1].

In a phone call on Sunday between China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken about Afghanistan, the former alluded to US failures saying that the withdrawal of the US and NATO troops after the Taliban’s takeover of the country “are very likely to offer opportunities for a resurgence of all terrorist groups inside Afghanistan.” He urged “all sides to contact and proactively guide the Taliban,” but warned at the same that coordination between China and the US would depend on Washington’s giving in in policies towards Beijing in other areas. [South China Morning Post]

Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed on the phone recent developments in Afghanistan and agreed to work together and “to use at maximum the potential of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization,” to prevent security threats spilling over from Afghanistan in their first talks since Kabul fell to the Taliban. [AA]

For a perspective on why China is “best positioned” to support Afghanistan’s reconstruction see [Global Times] which argues: “In the Afghanistan situation, China and Russia have maintained close communication and have shared interests in peace and development in Afghanistan, which makes the two countries the main players and partners in Afghanistan's rebuilding efforts, in stark contrast to the US' intention to sow chaos in the country.”

China set to surpass Russia as US top nuclear threat, US senior military official says

(dql) U.S. Air Force Lieutenant General Thomas Bussiere, the deputy commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, which oversees the country's nuclear arsenal, has warned in an online forum that China is about to replace Russia as the top nuclear threat for the US in the next few years, arguing that his assessment was not based on China’s nuclear stockpile, which is far behind those of the US and Russia, but on how China’s nuclear forces are “operationally fielded.” He added that unlike with Russia, the US has no framework for negotiations with China on arms limits. [Reuters] [Air Force Magazine]

Bussiere’s remarks follows recent reports on over 100 new silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles China has begun to build. [Washington Post]

For critical Chinese perspectives on Bussiere’s statements see opinion pieces in [Global Times 1] and [Global Times 2] accusing the US deputy commander of “sinister” intentions of sowing discord between China and Russia and arguing that China is forced to increase its nuclear capacities to maintain deterrence against US coercion at a minimum level.

China-US relations: US destroyer, cutter transit Taiwan Strait

(dql) On August 28, the guided-missile destroyer USS Kidd, accompanied by a Coast Guard National Security Cutter, transited the Taiwan Strait. It was the eighth of such a transit this year by a US warship. [USNI News]

On the same day, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) held drills on both sides of the strait, reflecting signals of an intensified tit-for-tat pattern of show of force between both countries’ militaries in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. [Global Times]

Prior the those drills in Friday, China had conducted a series of naval exercises from Tuesday to Thursday in the South China Sea, the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Strait. [South China Morning Post 1]

The naval activities came on the heels of reportedly successful tests of new missiles by China’s PLA Rocket Force. The missiles are believed to be capable of overcoming “complex electromagnetic interference” to destroy facilities in a “fast-reaction” operation and to be aimed at Taiwan. [South China Morning Post 2]

They also came amid US Vice President Kamala Harris’ trip to Vietnam and Singapore during which she reiterated longstanding US criticism of China’s actions in the South China Sea where “Beijing continues to coerce, to intimidate and to make claims to the vast majority of the South China Sea, […] underm[ining] the rules-based order and threaten[ing] the sovereignty of nations.” [New York Times]

In a latest development, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense confirmed that a PLA Air Force reconnaissance plane entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on Sunday, marking the 13th intrusion in August. [Taiwan News]

China-US tensions over Covid-19 origin report

(dql) A report compiled by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and submitted to President Joe Biden by the US intelligence community last week is inconclusive on the origin of the coronavirus, with intelligence agencies being divided on whether the pathogen was transmitted from an animal to a human as part of a natural process, or escaped from a lab in central China in an accident. The agencies, however, agreed that “the virus was not developed as a biological weapon.” [CNBC] [CNN]

Commenting on the report, Biden vowed that the US and allies would not stop to exert pressure on China for “critical information” on the origin of the virus, accusing China of withholding that information in defiance of calls for transparency. [DW]

China, in turn, denounced the report, accusing the US of “political manipulation” and “scapegoating China.” [Aljazeera] [Global Times]

Since the completion of an investigation conducted by a team of the World Health of Organization in China earlier this year which also proved inconclusive [see AiR No. 14, April/2021, 1], Beijing has rejected calls for a second origin probe.

China to demand foreign vessels’ report in “territorial waters”

(dql) Under regulations taking effect this Wednesday, a range of foreign vessels entering what Beijing sees as its “territorial waters” are required to report ship and cargo information to China’s maritime authorities.

The reporting requirements apply to submersibles, nuclear vessels, ships carrying radioactive materials, ships carrying bulk oil, chemicals, liquefied gas and other toxic and harmful substances and other vessels that are seen as posing a threat to China’s maritime traffic safety. [South China Morning Post]

Japan-Taiwan relations: Lawmakers from ruling parties hold talks

(dql) In a move angering China, Japanese and Taiwanese lawmakers from the respective ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) held an online meeting on August 27 to discuss how to handle the rising challenge from China as well as possible military exchanges. The topics covered semiconductors, Beijing’s military activities in disputed waters and possible cooperation between Taiwan, Japan and the United States, as well as cooperation between Coast Guards on both sides. [Straits Times]

The meeting is the latest in a string of signals of a hardening stance of Japan towards China on the Taiwan issue. Earlier this month, Japan’s defense minister Nobuo Kishi called on the international community to pay more attention to “Taiwan’s survival” in the face China’s military build-up and moves “that work to envelop Taiwan.” [Taiwan News]

In this year’s defense white paper, Japan’s Defense Ministry made a direct link between its security and Taiwan. [Taiwan News]

South Korea regrets Japan’s release of Fukushima water

(aml) South Korea has expressed its strong regret over Japan’s plan to release radioactive water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the ocean. According to news reports, Tokyo Electric Power Company, the operator of the Fukushima plant that was devastated by a tsunami, triggered by and earthquake in March 2011, plans to build a 1km long underwater tunnel to discharge the tritium-laced water into the sea. About 1.25 million tons of water are currently in a temporary storage at the plant. [The Korea Herald] The South Korean government expressed its concerns and urged Japan to establish a bilateral consultative body to discuss the issue. On Thursday, the foreign ministry called the Japanese embassy to protest over the plan, asking them to stop it and firstly consult with the neighboring countries to protect their safety. [Yonhap News Agency]

South Korea and Colombia on further cooperation and friendship 

(aml) On Wednesday, president Moon Jae-in and Colombian leader Ivan Duque agreed to strengthen their countries cooperation in digital, environmental, and cultural areas. The summit had been part of Duque’s three-day visit to South Korea upon Moon’s invitation. They agreed to expand their cooperation between the governments, institutions, and companies in Columbia’s state lead infrastructure projects, as well as promoting cooperation in the cultural, arts, sports, tourism, and education sector. The two countries want to work together in handling global issues as the climate change, food, public health and the fourth industrial revolution. Duque especially expressed high interests in partnerships concerning trade and high-tech industries, like the 5G network. Furthermore, they agreed to strengthen their partnership in defense. [The Korea Times 1]

Moon and Duque noted that their relationship is based on “solidarity and friendship”, since Colombia was the only Latin-American country to fought side-by-side with South Korea in the Korean war from 1950-1953. Both countries established formal diplomatic ties in 1963, formed a “strategic partnership” in 2011 and their free trade agreement took effect in 2016. Moon awarded the Grand Order of Mugungwha, South Korea’s highest medal of honor to Duque and in return received Colombia’s order of Boyaca in recognition of the contributions to each other development and security. [Yonhap News Agency 1] Duque was also awarded honorary citizenship of Seoul, being the 10th Colombian leader to receive this status. [Yonhap News Agency 2] On occasion of the visit, two Colombian veterans of the Korean war received the Ambassador for Peace Medal from South Korea. Guillermo Rodriguez Guzman, 91, and Alvaro Lozano Charry, 87, had fought alongside 5,100 other Colombian soldiers during the war, 213 died and 448 were wounded. Lozano stated, “looking at what a strong country South Korea has become, I feel that all the sacrifices we made were not in vain”. [The Korea Herald 1] [The Korea Herald 2]

During his visit, president Duque expressed his hope to join the International Vaccine Institute which is based in Seoul and submitted a letter of intent for his nation to become a member. If the relevant procedures are completed, Colombia will become the fourth Lain American nation to join the independent, nonprofit global body that was created in 1997 to discover, develop and deliver safe and affordable vaccines. [Yonhap News Agency 3]

South Korea: US drops plan to use South Korean bases for Afghan refugees

(aml) The US have allegedly decided against the idea to use their military bases in South Korea and Japan as temporary housing bases for Afghan refugees, due to logistic and geographics, among other reasons. [Reuters] In South Korea, opinions on the idea had been split, one side voicing concerns over logistics and possible violations of agreements between Korea and the US, while the other side stressed Korea’s humanitarian responsibility.[AiR, No.34, August/21, 4]

South Korea, US to form consultative body on space policy 

(aml) South Korean Air Force chief of staff and the chief of the US space operations issued a memorandum of understanding to form a joint space policy consultative body to strengthen their cooperation and become official partners in space security. They agreed to further share information on space surveillance and to improve joint space operation capabilities, such as missile defense. [Yonhap News Agency] Air Force chief Park In-ho is on a 10-day trip in America, and after his stay in Colorado, US he now flies to Hawaii to discuss ways to boost regional security. [The Korea Times]

South Korea, Great Britain hold training with aircraft carrier

(aml) From Monday to Wednesday, the South Korean Navy holds training with a UK’s HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier, a nuclear-powered fleet submarine, in the waters of the Korean peninsula. The exercise was originally planned as a port call in Busan but because of Covid it will be a scaled back exchange to practice humanitarian and disaster relief. The exercise is part of the carrier’s seven-month world tour and it just completed exercises in India and Singapore and will set off to Japan afterwards. Contrarily to some local news reports, the US is not joining the exercise, the defense ministry said on Monday. [The Korea Herald] [Yonhap News Agency]

North Korea reportedly restarts Yongbyon nuclear reactor

(nds) The International Atomic Energy Agency released a report this week that states that North Korea may have restarted its plutonium production unit at Yongbyon. The agency says that since early July, there have been indications, including discharges of cooling water, consistent with the reactor's operation. The system's restart in July 2021 may coincide with the utilization of a laboratory adjacent to the reactor where plutonium is processed. [The New York Times] [Euronews]

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and former US President Donald Trump discussed the future of the nuclear complex at the Hanoi summit in 2019. In exchange for a partial lifting of economic sanctions, Pyeongyang had offered to dismantle part of the Yongbyon complex but not its other nuclear production facilities.  Washington refused, and since then, negotiations between the two countries have stalled. However, the Yongbyon reactor was supposedly shut down in early December 2018, according to the report. [The New York Times] [Euronews] [The Wall Street Journal$]

The Yongbyon nuclear complex is where North Korea has been developing its nuclear arsenal for several decades.  A restart of this reactor could mean that Kim has decided to continue his nuclear development program in clear violation of UN Security Council resolutions. Moreover, it would imply that the country wishes to pose a more significant threat to its enemies. [The New York Times]

This information is echoing the North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement from 28 August. North Korea threatens to implement "the strongest war deterrence" to "dominate" the US, following joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises. In addition to referring to its nuclear weapons, Pyeongyang is threatening to strengthen its pre-emptive strike capabilities. In its statement, the Ministry described the joint drills as "the most vivid expression of the US hostile policy toward the DPRK," which aims to stifle its state "by force." [NK News]

Taiwan-Paraguay relations: Central bank signs cooperation agreement

(nds) On 25 August, the Central Bank of the Republic of China said it had signed an agreement with its Paraguayan counterpart to strengthen bilateral exchanges of information and experience through mutual visits, case studies, based on reciprocity, and information security protection. [Focus Taiwan]

Paraguay and Taiwan have good diplomatic relations. Paraguay is one of only 15 countries with full diplomatic ties with Taiwan and the only one in South America.

Taiwanese space company to conduct launch in Australia

(nds) Australian authorities have allowed Taiwanese company TiSPACE to conduct a commercial launch at a newly licensed facility in southern Australia later this year.

Tispace will test its Hapith I two-stage suborbital rocket from the Whalers Way orbital launch complex in southern Australia. The flight will be used to validate the vehicle's propulsion, guidance, telemetry, and structural systems. [Voice of America]

This news is crucial for Taiwan’s and Australia’s burgeoning space industries, which have lagged behind other countries. Australia only established a national space agency in 2018, and Taiwan has also been slow to develop the space sector on the island. Taipei has yet to launch a rocket or spacecraft from its soil. Hapith I is Taiwan's first domestically built rocket, and Tispace is its first commercial space launch company. [Voice of America]

Taiwanese legislators passed the Space Development Act in May to spur the development of a national space program. By improving the legal framework for space activities, Taiwan has been able to advance its plans in this field. [Taiwan News ]

Group of European Parliamentarians Supports Taiwan and Lithuania facing China

(nds) The Formosa Club, a group of pro-Taiwan European parliamentarians, has been supporting the Taiwan-Lithuania relationship at the European Commission, the European Council, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Recently Taiwan and Lithuania announced plans to establish representative offices in Taipei and Vilnius, angering China. China responded with threats and economic sanctions against Lithuania.

According to the Formosa Club's deputies, China's coercive actions are a flagrant violation of international diplomatic norms, noting that 15 other European countries have already established representative offices in Taiwan. As Chinese pressure mounts in the Taiwan Strait, more states are supporting Taipei. [Taipei Times]

Taiwan: Simultaneous military exercises

(nds) The Taiwanese military conducted exercises on the east and west coasts of the Hengchun Peninsula. The Air Force and Special Forces Command carried out the annual Condor exercise at the Jiupeng military base on the east coast. The Condor exercise is held annually and generally in September. However, it began in late August this year. Apache, SuperCobra, and Kiowa helicopters from the Army's 601st and 602nd Air Cavalry Brigades fired Hellfire and Stinger missiles to test the brigades' combat capabilities.

Simultaneously, two joint forces composed of soldiers from the three military branches conducted the “Lien Yong” exercise, which began on 23 August. In addition, the defense is preparing for Han Kuang Highway takeoff and landing exercises, which will be held from 13 September to 17. [Taiwan News]

Quad members conclude 25th edition of Malabar maritime exercises

(lm) India, the United States, Japan and Australia last week conducted a large joint naval exercise – Exercise Malabar – off the coast of Guam, seen as part of efforts to balance China’s vast military and economic power in the region.

For the second year in succession, the trilateral naval exercise involving the United States, Japan and India had been expanded to include Australia to include all members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), an informal group of the four largest democracies in the Indo-Pacific. [Nikkei Asia] [The Diplomat]

Canberra’s participation last year – following 13 years of absence – was considered by many a clear sign of the increasing strategic convergence of the four countries in the face of Beijing’s assertiveness in Asia [see AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4].

The four-day joint maneuver, held between August 26 and 29, featured “complex surface, subsurface and air operations including live weapon firing drills, anti-surface, anti-air and anti-submarine warfare drills, and joint manoeuvres and tactical exercises”, an Indian Navy spokesman told The Hindu. [South China Morning Post]

For a Chinese perspective on the Malabar exercises, see the editorial piece in [Global Times] which assumes that “[m]ost probably the four countries have no bravery to head into a showdown with China, nor are they prepared to do so. They conduct joint military exercises not because they believe there will be an imminent marine conflict with China, but because they want to show off their "unity" and comfort themselves by displaying their strength to China.”

Taliban takeover a ‘challenge’ for India, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh says

(lm) Defence Minister Rajnath Singh on August 29 called Taliban’s return to power a “challenge” for India that had forced the South Asian giant to shift its strategic priorities. In remarks delivered at the Defence Services Staff College, the minister highlighted the formation of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), as underlying this shift in India’s strategy. [India Today]

Timing and context of the remarks assume added significance, coming as they do less than a month after Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and his US counterpart Antony Blinken jointly reiterated a commitment to flesh out the Quad, a nascent strategic coalition that is increasingly seen as a Washington-led effort to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific [see AiR No. 31, August/2021, 1]. They also come hot on the heels of the four member countries of the Quad – India, the United States, Japan and Australia – concluding a large joint naval exercise off the coast of Guam. [see entry in this edition]

Further, Singh said his ministry was seriously considering the formation of Integrated Battle Groups (IBGs), self-sufficient combat formations with the elements of every of the three branches of the Indian Armed Forces combined as per the terrain and operational requirements. [Hindustan Times]

The sudden collapse of the Western-backed government in Kabul and the Taliban’s accompanying return to power has erased India’s presence in Afghanistan: its consulates and embassies have shut, its diplomats were evacuated and the future of more than $3 billion invested in development projects is uncertain.

Moreover, Indian intelligence agencies in recent months identified the renewed threat of the Taliban, reportedly flagging its cooperation with Pakistan-based groups Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Jaish-i-Mohammed, which have been linked to violence in the Indian-administered part of Jammu and Kashmir. New Delhi’ National Security Advisor raised the issue of cross-border terrorism in a virtual encounter with his counterparts from Brazil, Russia, China, and South Africa (BRICS) last week. [National Public Radio] [see entry in this edition]

Additionally, the possibility of China moving into Afghanistan to fill the vacuum left by the United States has further alarmed India, even though Beijing has its own interests in ensuring stability: In particular, Chinese policymakers believe that Afghanistan, which shares a border with China, could be used as a staging point for minority Uyghur separatists in the sensitive border region of its Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Beijing also fears that instability in Afghanistan could spill over into Pakistan and Central Asia, destabilizing countries on China’s periphery and putting its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) at risk [see AiR No. 33, August/2021, 3].

From New Delhi’s perspective, ties between Beijing and the Taliban, along with Pakistan’s increased influence in Afghanistan, add up to an expanded Chinese presence in the region: Afghanistan became a formal member of the BRI in 2016 and China remains committed to the BRI’s signature undertaking, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). [South China Morning Post]

By contrast, the Indian government has so far been mostly reluctant to engage with the Taliban, given the insurgent group’s proximity to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence, although there have been unconfirmed reports of backchannel talks taking place in June [see AiR No. 24, June/2021, 3]. This reluctance has cost New Delhi – which in late July still did not buy into the narrative of Kabul’s impending fall and the Taliban’s immanent return to power – a role in the reconciliation process, and ultimately left it with little leverage in the emerging state of affairs. [AiR No. 30, July/2021, 4]

Compelled to adapt to changing dynamics on its western front – encompassing Pakistan and Afghanistan – New Delhi may need to further de-escalate its ongoing border stand-off with China in its northeast. Prior to the fall of Kabul, New Delhi in July redirected at least 50,000 additional troops to three distinct areas along the Line of Actual Control, in a historic shift toward an offensive military posture against Beijing [see AiR No. 27, July/2021, 1].

Forced to grapple with renewed security threats from Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, New Delhi may also reassess its relationship with the United States, which has been reinforced until now by shared efforts to counter China’s influence. Sanjaya Baru, a policy analyst and media advisor to former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, wrote in the Deccan Chronicle that Washington had not given due consideration to India’s concerns and thereby had “dealt a blow to Indian national security and to the India-US partnership”. [Deccan Chronicle]

It comes as no surprise that just hours before Singh’s presentation, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar spoke to his US counterpart Antony Blinken about the latest developments and continued coordination in Afghanistan in a phone conversation. [The Times of India]

Russia seeks to assure India of partnership as Moscow, Beijing align positions on Afghanistan

(lm) Against the larger backdrop of a rapidly deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on August 24 held a phone conversation, with both sides agreeing to set up a joint team of foreign affairs and national security officials for bilateral consultations. [Reuters]

For Russia, the Taliban’s return to power has opened a path to increase its influence in South and Central Asia. Despite naming the Taliban a terrorist group, Moscow appears willing to engage with the militants if it can prevent Islamist extremism from spilling over the borders into central Asian allies such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. [AiR No. 33, August/2021, 3]

India, by contrast, has so far kept its distance from the Taliban, given its proximity to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence, although there have been unconfirmed reports of backchannel talks taking place in June [see AiR No. 24, June/2021, 3]. This reluctance has left New Delhi with little leverage in the emerging situation, and is believed to be the reason why it was again left out when Russia earlier this month convened an “extended troika” meeting in Doha with the United States, China and Pakistan to discuss the future of Afghanistan. [South China Morning Post]

India and Russia define their ties as a “strong strategic partnership”, and earlier in April agreed to establish a two-plus-two meeting between the two nations’ foreign and defense ministers to further deepen bilateral ties [see AiR No. 18, May/2021, 1]. In addition, both countries are expecting to conclude a Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Agreement (RELOS), which will simplify interoperability and enable support to military platforms like warships and aircraft, as well as a Navy-to-Navy cooperation Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) when Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu visits India later this year. [The Hindu]

But New Delhi’s concerns about Moscow’s commitment to their partnership were recently shaken when Russia earlier this month took part in a major joint military exercise with Beijing in China’s Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region [see AiR No. 32, August/2021, 2]. Shortly thereafter, three of China’s most advanced military aircraft made their debut at the Russian-run International Army Games [see AiR No. 33, August/2021, 3].

Will begin delivery of S-400 missile system to India by year end, Russian firms says

(lm) Russian state-owned defense contractor Almaz-Antey confirmed last week that it would begin delivering the first regiment of its S-400 surface-to-air missile system to India by the end of this year. [Hindustan Times]

India placed a $5.3 billion order for five units of the S-400 in 2018 and paid the first tranche of $800 million a year later. More than 100 personnel from the Indian Air Force have already completed their training in Russia, while a second group is currently undergoing training, according to the Russian contractor. [NewsonAIR]

In November of last year, the United States imposed sanctions on Turkey for Ankara’s purchase of the air defense system from Russia under the 2017 Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). The US federal law is meant to dissuade countries from procuring Russian military equipment and financially undermine one of Moscow’s major revenue sources. [AiR No. 52, December/2020, 5].

Ever since India signed the S-400 deal, the advent of CAATSA has surfaced sporadically, but with little definitiveness that has resulted in keeping New Delhi off-balance and wary. In January, for example, Washington’s then-outgoing ambassador to India assured that sanctions under CAATSA were never designed to harm “friends and allies” of the United States. The diplomat, however, also cautioned that New Delhi might soon have to choose between “trade-offs”, namely between inter-operability and diversification of sources of procurement. [AiR No. 2, January/2021, 2]

In related developments, the Indian Air Force also recently finalized a deal for immediate “off-the-shelf procurement” of 70,000 AK-103 assault rifles from Russia to replace its existing inventory of Indian Small Arms System (INSAS) rifles.

Sources also say that work is also underway to begin the indigenous production of AK-203 rifles by Indo-Russia Rifles (IRPL), a joint ventured that resulted from both countries signing an Inter-Governmental Agreement in 2019. India’s Ordnance Factory Board holds a 50.5 percent stake in the company, while the Kalashnikov Concern, and Rosoboronexport, Russia’s state agency for military exports, own the remaining stake. [The Times of India]

Besides procuring the S-400 surface-to-air missile system, and a host of emergency procurement, India has also leased another nuclear-powered attack submarine— dubbed Chakra III — in a $3 billion contract in 2019. In sum, the two countries have signed defense deals worth $15 billion in the last three years, a high-ranking official of Russia’s military-industrial behemoth, Rostec, said last week. [The Hindu]

Yet, India’s arm imports have decreased by a whopping 33 percent in the second half of the decade, as New Delhi attempts to reduce dependence on Russia. For arms exports by Moscow, which accounted for 20 percent of all exports of major arms between 2016 and 2020, dropped by 22 percent [see AiR No. 12, March/2021, 4].

For a comment on the future of India-Russian defense ties, please see [The Print].

India participates in BRICS meeting on national security, raises issue of ‘cross-border terrorism’

(lm) The National Security Advisors (NSAs) of the five major emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) – met virtually on August 24 to review the regional and global security landscape with particular reference to current developments in Afghanistan, Iran, West Asia and the Gulf, as well as emerging threats to national security, such as cyber security. [NDTV]

The representatives adopted and recommended the BRICS Counter-Terrorism Action Plan for consideration by the 13th BRICS Summit, which will be held under India's chairmanship later this year. The action plan aims to further strengthen existing mechanisms of cooperation in areas such as financing and combating terrorism, misuse of the internet by terrorists, curbing the travel of terrorists, border controls, protection of soft targets, information sharing, capacity building, and regional and international cooperation. [The Hindu]

The chair of the meeting, India’s NSA Ajit Doval, raised the issue of cross-border terrorism and activities of groups such as Pakistan-based groups Lashkar-e-Taiba and the Jaish-i-Mohammed, which have been linked to violence in the Indian-administered part of Jammu and Kashmir. In a thinly veiled reference to Pakistan, Doval said these groups would "enjoy state support" and threaten peace and security.

US INDOPACOM commander holds talks with India's top military brass

(lm) The Commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM), Admiral John Aquilino, last week held extensive talks with high-ranking Indian officials, including External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Defence Secretary Dr. Ajay Kumar.

During his working visit – which came just days ahead of the 25th edition of the Exercise MALABAR – Aquilino also met with the heads of the three uniformed services of the Indian Armed Forces, with a focus on further strengthening the bilateral defense partnership between the two countries. [The Economic Times]

Together with General Bipin Rawat – the Chief of Defence Staff of the Indian Armed Forces – the United States admiral on August 25 then participated in a discussion on the US-India partnership organized by the Observer Research Foundation.

When asked to comment on China’s rapid military build-up, including in the maritime domain, General Rawat said the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) was expanding exponentially and suggested that Beijing could deploy their aircraft carriers beyond the Pacific and the South China Sea. [Swarajya]

Bangladesh: Army chief returns from Turkey visit

(ad) Bangladesh’s Chief of Army Staff (CAS) General SM Shafiuddin Ahmed returned to Dhaka on August 26, completing an eight-day official visit to Turkey, which saw top military officials from both sides discussing possible areas of defense cooperation. [AiR No. 34, August/2021, 4]

While in Ankara, the army chief met with Turkish Land Forces Commander General Musa Avsever and General Yaşar Güler, Chief of the General Staff. Ahmed, who took over as head of the Bangladesh Army this June, also engaged with several other senior officials, including the country’s Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, and inspected the operation control room of the Turkish Unmanned Aerial System (UAS), Army Aviation Headquarters, and the Turkish Aerospace Industries. [Daily Sabah]

Talks between the army chief and top Turkish officials focused on possible areas of defense cooperation between the two countries. The top Turkish government officials assured full cooperation with Bangladesh, including those involving military equipment. [Anadolu Agency]

Bangladesh and Turkey signed an agreement on military training, education and joint cooperation between forces of both nations in 2004.

More recently, however, the two countries have particularly been stepping up defense exchanges, with Bangladesh becoming the fourth-largest arms buyer from Turkey, reportedly receiving up to $60 million worth of weapons out of Ankara’s roughly $1 billion in defense products exports in the first four months of 2021.

Defense links between the two countries have been further strengthened through training programs and military exercises: More than 3,000 Bangladeshi military officers have received training in Turkey. Bangladesh’s Navy, in particular, has developed close ties with its Turkish counterpart, which – along with South Korea and the United States – provides military training to the Special Warfare Diving and Salvage (SWADS), an elite special operational unit of the Bangladesh Navy.

India, Maldives sign pact on Greater Male Connectivity Project

(lm) India and the Maldives on August 26 signed a contract on the Greater Male Connectivity project (GMCP), a major infrastructure project centered around the construction of a 6.7-kilometers-long bridge and causeway network connecting the island state’s capital Malé with the neighboring islands of Villingli, Gulhifalhu and Thilafushi. [Hindustan Times] [The Economic Times]

The mega project is an outcome of bilateral consultations both countries since India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar visit to Malé in September 2019. Funded by an Indian grant of $100 million, with a Line of Credit of $400 million, it constitutes the biggest development project by India in its neighborhood in recent years. [The Indian Express]

This project is significant because it facilitates inter-island connectivity between the country’s four major islands, where 50 percent of the Maldivian population live. Already, the China-funded Sinamalé Bridge links Malé with the islands of Hulhulé and Hulhumalé.

European Commission recommends temporary visa measures for Bangladesh, Iraq, The Gambia

(ad/lm) The European Commission earlier this month proposed to establish temporary restrictive on short-stay visas against applicants who are citizens of Bangladesh, Iraq, and The Gambia, after the three countries had showcased an insufficient level of cooperation on taking back their nationals who do not have the right to stay in the EU.

Under the revised Visa Code – in force since February 2020 – the Commission annually assesses readmission cooperation with non-EU countries and reports to the European Council, which is scheduled to meet next month. Depending on the assessment, temporary restrictions on certain short-stay may be introduced vis-à-vis non-EU countries whose nationals require visas to travel to the EU, where cooperation on readmission is not yet deemed sufficient. [European Commission 1]

In its Explanatory Memorandum, the Commission reports that two-thirds of the EU Member States that interacted with Bangladesh on readmission were confronted with practices deviating from the provisions outlined in the 2017 Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), hampering all phases of the return process. [European Commission 2]

If the Council chooses to adopt the Commission’s proposal for implementing temporary visa measures for Bangladesh, Iraq and The Gambia, the measures will come into force immediately. Within six months of the measures entering into force, the Commission must report to the European Parliament and to the Council on the progress achieved. The Commission may then propose to repeal or amend these visa measures, taking into account the Union's overall relations with the countries concerned.

Bangladeshi nationals currently constitute the largest group of migrants coming to Europe, exceeding the combined number of those travelling from Syria, Afghanistan and North Africa. By the end of June, over 3,300 Bangladeshis had entered Europe via dangerous sea crossings, mostly travelling via Libya. [AiR No. 34, August/2021, 4]

Pakistan, Russia to firm up gas pipeline project agreement

(lm) Pakistan and Russia on August 26 agreed to sign a shareholder and a facilitation agreement for the PakStream Gas Pipeline (PSGP) project next month, and to expedite technical studies and surveys. [Dawn] [The Express Tribune]

Formerly known as the North-South Gas Pipeline, the infrastructural mega-project – 1,100 kilometers in length – is expected to cost up to $2.5 billion and be completed by 2023. The pipeline will secure the delivery of 12.3 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year from liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminals in Karachi and Gwadar to the city of Lahore in Punjab Province.

Importantly, this project will be the first such large-scale economic initiative between Moscow and Islamabad undertaken since the mid-1970s, when relations between the two states weakened after Pakistan aided the United States in funding the Afghan mujahedeen against the Soviet-backed government.

Although the two countries signed an intergovernmental agreement on the pipeline project in 2015, it was not implemented due to United States’ and European sanctions against Russian state-owned conglomerate Rostec, as well as a dispute over pipeline transport fees. Since then, Moscow has routinely changed the structure of its stake – most recently this March – to avoid sanctions [see AiR No. 14, April/2021, 1].

Bangladesh’s foreign minister departs on three-country trip to Europe

(ad) Bangladesh’s Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen on August 29 left for a three-nation tour to Europe. He is likely to return to Dhaka on September 8. [The Daily Prothom]

The first stop will be the Swiss capital, Geneva, where Momen will attend the Asia-Pacific regional review meeting on the implementation of the Istanbul Programme of Action (IPoA) until September 2. The meeting is held in preparation for the fifth United Nations Conference on the Least Developed Countries (LDC5), which will take place in Doha early next year. While in Geneva, the Bangladeshi top diplomat is also expected to hold meetings with heads of various UN agencies. [United News of Bangladesh]

Afterwards, Momen will meet with his British counterpart Dominic Raab in London. Further vaccine cooperation, removing Bangladesh from the red list for entering the United Kingdom and strengthening the relations between both countries are likely to be on the agenda. The two Commonwealth member countries are also scheduled to hold the fourth round of their joint Strategic Dialogue on September 9 to exchange views across the entire gamut of bilateral relations. [Dhaka Tribune]

While in London, Momen is also scheduled to have a separate meeting with Alok Sharma, President of the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26), which will take place from October 31 to November 12 in Glasgow.

Before returning to Dhaka, Momen will stop-over in the Netherlands to meet with his Dutch counterpart Sigrid Kaag, and attend a board meeting of the Global Centre on Adaptation, an international organization hosted by Amsterdam that works as a solutions broker for climate change adaptation solutions.

Bangladesh’s foreign minister concludes official visit to South Africa

(ad/lm) Bangladesh’s Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen last week concluded an official visit to South Africa. Bilateral relations between the two countries are conducted within the framework of a senior officials meeting; the last session was held in the Bangladeshi capital, Dhaka, in 2019.

Early on August 25, Momen met with his South African counterpart Naledi M. Pandor in Pretoria with both sides pledging to strengthen bilateral relations. During the meeting, the Bangladeshi top diplomat said his country is considered a model of economic development, and suggested a cooperation between the two countries in areas of ready-made garments and pharmaceuticals. [United News of Bangladesh 1]

During his visit, Momen also met with other South African government officials, including the minister of trade, industry and competition; and the minister of agriculture, land reform and rural development. [United News of Bangladesh 2]

Earlier this month, the Bangladeshi top diplomat met with South Sudanese President Salva Kiir Mayardit in Juba, with both sides pledging to strengthen bilateral engagements. Momen also met with his South Sudanese counterpart, and the country’s acting defense minister. [AiR No. 34, August/2021, 4]

Sri Lanka receives 140 tons of medial oxygen from India

(egm/lm) India on August 22 delivered 140 tons of medical oxygen to Sri Lanka following Colombo’s request for international assistance amidst the rising COVID-19 cases. The supply arrived in two shipments transported by the Indian Navy Ship (INS) Shakti and Sri Lanka’s Naval Ship (SLNS) Shakthi. [South Asia Monitor]

According to a statement by the Indian High Commission, Sri Lanka has been receiving help from India to curb the strain of the pandemic through the donation of medical supplies in 2020, a currency swap of $400 million in July of the same year and via the distribution of vaccines earlier in January 2021. [The Hindu]

PLA Tibet Military Command holds large-scale joint drills in plateau region

(lm) The Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) Tibet Military Command recently organized large-scale joint exercises on a peak in the Himalayas, in which the troops operated some of the PLA's latest weapons and equipment and practiced multidimensional tactics with the goal of target elimination.

The Exercise Snowfield Duty-2021 featured more than 10 brigades and regiments affiliated with the PLA Tibet Military Command and set the theme of joint, multidimensional combat in plateau and mountainous regions, China Central Television (CCTV) reported on August 25. [Global Times]

India, Kazakhstan hold 13-day military exercise

(lm) Indian and Kazakhstan forces on August 30 launched a joint 13-day exercise, KAZIND-21, with a focus on counter-terror operations in mountainous terrain and rural scenarios. The exercise is being conducted at a Kazakh training node in Aisha Bibi and will run until September 11. 90 personnel from the Indian Army are participating in the joint exercise; the Kazakhstan Army is being represented by a company group. [Hindustan Times] [The Economic Times]

Indonesia: Tanker seized for alleged oil theft from Cambodia

(nd) A Bahamas-flagged oil tanker, captain and crew members, are being held by Indonesia for allegedly stealing about 300,000 barrels of crude oil from Cambodia, which seeks for its return. Three days after Cambodia issued an Interpol red notice about the oil, the M.T. Strovolos, was illegally anchored off Sumatra with its identification system turned off. It was intercepted by an Indonesian warship for sailing into Indonesian waters in the South China Sea without permission. The seizure occurred on July 27; it is unclear why the news was not published earlier. The ship was rented by KrisEnergy, a troubled Singapore-based oil and gas company, which filed for liquidation in June.

In late January, the Chinese and Iranian captains of two oil tankers were sentenced for carrying out an unauthorized ship-to-ship petroleum transfer in waters off West Kalimantan on Borneo Island. The incident urged the chief of Indonesia’s coast guard (Bakamla) to call for tougher laws against navigational violations in Indonesian waters. All ships passing through Indonesian waters are required to activate their automatic identification systems, or report any damage them. [Benar News] [South China Morning Post]

Having been introduced festively by the end of last year and had great outsized symbolic significance for Prime Minister Hun Sen’s government, the extraction of crude oil from Cambodia’s waters in the Gulf of Thailand has been called a failure by Hun Sen in July. KrisEnergy earlier bought a controlling stake in the Cambodian oil field from the US-based oil giant Chevron in 2014, but lately defaulted on payment, probably also due to lower volumes of oils that were extracted. Cambodia’s offshore ambitions were meant to amount some $500 million in initial revenue to reduce dependency on Western aid money and the Chinese government. [The Diplomat]

Myanmar, US to reiterate support for democracy

(nd) On her current tour through Southeast Asia, US Vice President Kamala Harris said the US was committed to support Myanmar to restore democracy, urging other nations to join the US. Once again, Harris condemned the ongoing violence against protesters, causing 1,014 casualties since the coup on February 1, and more than 5,000 people detained. The military regime is facing nationwide opposition, with a striking workforce further straining the economy and ethnic armed groups creating resistance for them to seize control of the entire country. The US has repeatedly called on the regional bloc ASEN to resolve the crisis, and US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman has also talked to the shadow National Unity Government (NUG), comprised of by elected lawmakers of the ousted National League for Democracy government and their ethnic allies, as first official US contact with NUG. ASEAN did not engage with NUG yet. [The Irrawaddy]

Philippines to file diplomatic protest with China

(nd) Following China’s firing of flares to warn off Filipino surveillance planes in the contested South China Sea, the Philippines has filed a diplomatic protest. As Filipino military planes overflew the disputed waters, Chinese outposts located on islets in the Union Banks fired five warning shots in mid-June, according to an internal military report that was made public last week. In the report included were images showing that China continued to expand developing islands in the South China Sea.

It is unclear why the incident was made public this late, but it coincided with then-reports on the Filipino navy stepping up patrols in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), accompanied by announcements to file diplomatic protest with China over the continued presence of Chinese ships. In March, the Philippines first flagged a presence of over 200 Chinese fishing boats, allegedly manned by Chinese militia.

China claims almost the entire South China Sea for itself, overlapping with EEZs of Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Taiwan. Indonesia does not regard itself as party to the dispute, but China claims historic rights to parts of that sea overlapping Indonesia's EEZ as well. In an International Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruling from 2016, the court rejected China’s claims in favor of the Philippines, which was ignored by China. In January, China passed a law, allowing its coast guard to fire at ships intruding in the claimed area. [Radio Free Asia]

China, Pakistan, Mongolia and Thailand to hold military exercise

(nd) China, Pakistan, Mongolia and Thailand will hold joint live exercise next month. The first, multinational peacekeeping exercises “Shared Destiny-2021” are organized by the People's Liberation Army and will include drills, involving units of infantry, fast response, security, helicopter, engineering, transportation and medical services. All four countries will dispatch more than 1,000 troops for the joint exercise, which is a response to the United Nation's “Action for Peacekeeping” initiative, promoting practical cooperation and enhance joint peacekeeping capabilities. [The Economic Times] [Nagaland]

Indonesia to talk to the Taliban

(nd) In recent talks, Indonesia called on the Taliban, to form an inclusive government and respect women’s rights. Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi talked to Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, deputy director of the Taliban’s political office, in Qatar last week before two bombs detonated at the airport, killing over 100 people.

As the world’s largest Muslim-majority nation, Indonesia has in recent years tried to negotiate for an end to the conflict in Afghanistan. Earlier this month, Taliban forces seized Kabul and the Western militaries were forced to hastily withdraw their personnel, returning 20 years after being ousted by an US-led military coalition following the attack of September 11, 2001.

During their rule in the 1990s, women’s rights were suppressed, for example, access to education was cut off for women and girls, which is why women’s rights advocates in the wake of the fall of Kabul voiced their concerns over the Taliban’s future policies in that matter.

Last week, experts also raised the issue of Afghanistan once again becoming a possible safe haven for terrorist groups. [See also AiR No. 34, August/2021, 4] Authorities are also investigating whether Indonesian militants were among the prisoners released by the Taliban. Shortly before the fall of Kabul, Indonesian police arrested dozens of suspected members of the militant group Jemaah Islamiyah, who they blame for the 2002 Bali bombings. [Benar News]

South Korea to support Myanmar restoration

(nd) South Korea will continue to support democratic restoration in Myanmar through closely cooperating with international actors and the parallel National Unity Government (NUG). The Office of the President of South Korea announced this in response to a public petition signed by 268,428 people to support the NUG and reject the military junta. Before the coup, South Korea was the sixth-largest investor in Myanmar in 2020. The announcement added it supports Myanmar’s pro-democracy activists and reiterated for the military to stop violence against civilians and release political detainees, including State Counselor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, 1,019 civilians have been killed and 7,589 people arrested, nearly 6,000 of which are still being detained, by the military regime since February. [The Irrawaddy]

China to gain access to India Ocean through rail line via Myanmar

(nd) The recent opening of a rail line through Myanmar provided China with access to the Indian Ocean. The rail line was opened on August 25 and goes from Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan Province, to Lincang, in China’s Yunnan Province opposite Chin Shwe Haw, which borders with Myanmar’s northeastern Shan State. This is the first link for western China to the Indian Ocean and will significantly reduce time to ship cargo from Yunnan Province, enabling to ship from Singapore via Myanmar, to Yangon Port.

As part of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a border economic cooperation zone in Chin Shwe Haw shall be developed as an economic hub for Yunnan Province’s imports and exports. The rail line will be central for Chinese and Burmese international trade while providing a source of income for the military.

As part of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, a deep seaport in Kyaukphyu Township in Rakhine and a Special Economic Zone is also underway, in an effort to bypass the congested Strait of Malacca.

Since the rail line crosses areas controlled by ethnic armed groups, it has been delayed due to fighting with the military following the February coup. [The Irrawaddy]

Myanmar’s military seized power from the government on Feb. 1 in response to what it said was a fraud-tainted victory by the National League for Democracy (NLD) in the country’s November 2020 election. The junta has yet to provide evidence of its claims and has violently repressed anti-coup protests, killing 1,038 people and arresting 6,033, according to the Bangkok-based Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP).

Russia to tighten relations to Myanmar

(nd) Last week, Russia confirmed plans to deliver military equipment Myanmar. Following a meeting between Gen. Maung Maung Aye and Russian Deputy Defense Minister Lt. Gen. Alexander Fomin, Russian officials announced plans to deliver an air defense weapons system to Myanmar’s military. A military delegation from Myanmar was in Moscow to attend the International Military Technical Forum “Army 2021” and participate in the International Army Games, giving room to discuss military and technical cooperation and possibilities to deepen military relations. The delivery was now confirmed, saying it will arrive in “a timely manner”, while junta spokesman Maj. General Zaw Min called Russian relation with Myanmar “stronger than ever.” Before the coup, Russia’s Defense Minister announced to sell air defense weaponry to Myanmar, which has reportedly arrived in Myanmar and training has begun. After the coup, frequent visits occurred between the countries, also strengthening cultural ties by planning to send civilians for scholarships to Russia.

While western governments have responded with sanctions, amid a defiant military regime, Russia managed to strengthen ties with Myanmar, making use of the isolated regime to expand in the area. The UN Assembly in June voted to not sell weapons to the junta in light of the crackdown on protestors. The US and 118 other countries voted in favor, while 36 countries, including Russia, abstained. With Western nations reluctancy to engage with the military regime, Russia and China became the main partners, with Thailand and India only secondary.

While Russia was looking to get a foot in the door in the region, looking for strategic allies, it was also looking for an arms market, which is growing in Myanmar, from less than US $8 million in 2014 to more than US $115 million in 2020, accounting for 51 percent of all exports. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia made around US $10.7 billion in arms sales to Southeast Asia from 1999 to 2018, most to Vietnam, followed by Myanmar. Also, the Russian navy eyes access to the Indian Ocean.

Additionally, Russia considers general investment in Myanmar, while most other investors have stopped their engagement due to the February coup, most likely considering oil and mining opportunities in Myanmar. Currently, Russian companies are operating a steel factory in Shan state and engaging in oil exploration.

Bilateral relations between Myanmar and Russia have deepened since the military coup on February 1, ousting the NLD-led government of Aung San Suu Kyi. Followed by China, Russia has become central for Myanmar’s defense system, also expanding cooperation between their air forces. [Radio Free Asia] [The Irrawaddy]

US Vice President Harris urges Vietnam to join US in opposing China ‘bullying’

(ct/lm) US Vice President Kamala Harris met Vietnam’s top leaders on August 25, offering support in several key areas and to upgrade bilateral relations to a strategic partnership, in an effort to prove that Washington is refocusing on the region and on a broader strategy of countering China.

Harris’ visit to Hanoi capped a high-stakes seven-day tour to Southeast Asia, during which the vice president met with top officials in Singapore – including Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong – and unveiled a number of new US agreements and aid in areas including cyber-defense cooperation [see AiR No. 34, August/2021, 4].

Speaking at a meeting with Vietnam’s President Nguyen Xuan Phuc, Harris said there was a need to “raise the pressure” on Beijing’s actions “and to challenge its bullying and excessive maritime claims.” Harris also pledged Washington’s help in boosting the Southeast Asian nation’s maritime security, offering more visits by US warships as well as the donation of a third US Coast Guard cutter – subject to congressional approval. [Associated Press]

Further, Harris unveiled an array of new partnerships and support for Vietnam in areas including climate change, trade and the coronavirus pandemic. She announced that Washington will send 1 million additional doses of COVID-19 vaccines to Vietnam, on top of about 5 million shots already provided from the US supply. Additionally, the US will provide $23 million to help Vietnam expand distribution and access to vaccines, combat the pandemic and prepare for future disease threats. [South China Morning Post 1]

Speaking a day after her conversations with Vietnamese leaders, Harris told reporters she had raised issues of human rights abuses and restrictions on political activism. When asked if she received any commitments to secure the release of Vietnamese dissidents, the vice president said the issue was discussed “both with the leaders of the Vietnamese government, as well as with civil society leaders — because it is a real concern for the United States.” [Associated Press] [The Hill]

Harris trip to Hanoi, the first-ever visit by a sitting US vice-president since the end of the Vietnam War in 1975, sought to build on US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin’s successful visit last month, during which the two countries a memorandum of understanding that expands support to Hanoi’s efforts to locate and identify Vietnamese killed or missing during the Vietnam War. [AiR No. 31, August/2021, 1]

The two-nation tour – Harris’ second international trip in the role – had gained heightened urgency, coming as it did against the larger backdrop of chaotic effort’s by Washington to evacuate Americans and Afghan allies from Kabul. [Al Jazeera]

But it also provided Harris a taste of the intensifying rivalry between the United States and China. Beijing has seized on the turmoil in Kabul to taunt the US and label it an unreliable partner: Commenting on Harris’ visit to Singapore, China’s Foreign Ministry on August 24 said the United States “arbitrarily launched military intervention in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria, while claiming to defend the interests of smaller countries.” [Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China] [The New York Times]

Moreover, a three-hour delay in Harris’ schedule handed China a window of opportunity to quickly facilitate a meeting between its envoy and Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, during with the ambassador pledged a donation of 2 million vaccine doses, undercutting the subsequent US announcement. The Vietnamese prime minister, thanking the envoy, said his country “does not ally with one country to fight against another,” according to state media. [The Washington Post] [VietnamPlus]

Also at the meeting, the two sides discussed tensions in the East Sea. Chinh emphasized that both countries needed to maintain peace and stability, and properly settle disagreements at sea in the spirit of high-level common perceptions, and reach an agreement on basic principles guiding the settlement of sea-related matters and compliance with international law. [South China Morning Post 2]

For an analysis of China’s wedge strategy towards the US-Vietnam partnership – which is geared towards reinforcing Hanoi’s neutrality – please consider [The Diplomat].

Belgium-Vietnam relations: Prime Ministers discuss strengthen investment and trade

(ct) In a phone conversation with Belgium Prime Minister Alexander De Croo on August 26, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh called for greater bilateral cooperation, suggesting to strengthen two-way trade and investment.

Chinh said Belgium is one of the important trade partners and the sixth-largest export market of Vietnam in Europe. He emphasized that the two sides' continued effective implementation of the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) along with the early ratification of the EU-Vietnam Investment Protection Agreement (EVIPA) by Belgium would create an important impetus to promote relations between Vietnam and the EU as well as between Vietnam and Belgium in both economic and strategic terms.

Chinh, furthermore, proposed the Belgian government create favorable conditions for agricultural products while urging the European Commission (EC) to soon remove the ‘yellow card’ for Vietnamese seafood, thus benefiting both Vietnamese exporters and consumers in Belgium and the EU.

De Croo, in turn, affirmed that he would direct relevant Belgian agencies to actively respond to the request of the Vietnamese side. Also, he agreed with Chinh's views on global and equal access to and mutual support in vaccine issues and pledged to direct its relevant agencies to satisfy the Vietnamese side's proposals in vaccine issues.

Regarding the East Sea issue, both sides affirmed the importance of maintaining peace, stability, security, safety and freedom of navigation and overflight as well as the peaceful settlement of disputes based on international law. [Việt Nam News] [VietnamPlus]

Vietnam, Thailand take steps to promote bilateral partnership

(ct) Vietnamese National Assembly Speaker Vuong Dinh Hue on 30 August held talks with his Thai counterpart Chuan Leekpai on measures to continue promoting the enhanced strategic partnership between the two countries.

Thailand consolidates its position as Vietnam's largest trading partner in ASEAN and is the country's ninth-largest foreign investor, the Vietnamese leader said, urging the two countries to maintain existing contacts and cooperation mechanisms.

As steps to bolster Vietnam-Thailand enhanced strategic partnership, Hue called on the two sides to quickly finalize and sign the action program for the period 2021-2025, as well as other legal documents such as treaties on extradition and legal assistance in civil matters. The Vietnamese NA called on both sides to continue facilitating business activities to reach the $25 billion trade target as soon as possible. He suggested that Thailand invest in areas that match Thailand's strengths and Vietnam's needs, including tourism, high-tech agriculture, information technology, and green energy. Moreover, he expected the two countries to resolve pending issues for mutual benefits and enhance working mechanisms under the Mekong sub-region in association with the establishment of the ASEAN Community.

For his part, Chuan Leekpai supported the views of his Vietnamese counterpart on multilateral relations, with emphasis on the importance of maintaining peace and stability to contribute to the development of the region, as well as on the promotion of trade cooperation and the reduction of obstacles to bilateral ties. [Hanoi Times] [Voice of Vietnam]

Announcements

Upcoming Online Events 

1 – 3 September 2021, Brussels European and Global Economic Laboratory, Brussels

Bruegel Annual Meetings 2021

This series of online events from September 1st – September 3rd deals with the global pandemic and how we can avoid future pandemics, the EU recovery fund, the future of EU-Africa relations, the role of the state in providing infrastructure for decarbonisation, the reform of the WTO, European banks, monetary and macroeconomic policies at the crossroads, brave new digital industrial policy, an in-depth look at the Italian Recovery and Resilience plan, the role of the EU’s trade strategy for an inclusive and sustainable recovery and sustainable finance.

To register and for more information, please see [Bruegel].

1 September 2021 @ 9:00 a.m. (GMT +2), The Swedish Institute of International Affairs, Stockholm

“Rule of Law Intermediaries: Brokering Influence in Myanmar” – A book discussion with Kristina Simion

In this online event, Kristina Simion will talk about her newly published book and about who Rule of Law intermediaries are and what role these actors play in Rule of Law assistance. By focusing on the decade of Myanmar's political transformation, Kristina explores rule of law assistance through the practice and experience of intermediaries, their capital, strategies and challenges. How do intermediaries influence the field, and the ways in which the rule of law is brokered transnationally? And why do they matter?

Please see [The Swedish Institute for International Affairs] for more information.

2 September @ 04:00 p.m. (GMT +2), Clingendael Institute, Wassenaar

Climate Change: Entry point for regional peace in the Middle East

The online event will deal with the climate change that is hitting the Middle East. It will look into approaches to combat desertification, dialogues over the Jordan river which is at risk of drying up and cooperation to provide more renewable energy. It will link to donors increasingly active on the climate-security nexus, such as the EU. What could we gain by scaling up climate-security practices in the Middle East?

For more information, please see [Clingendael Institute].

2 September 2021 @ 12:45-14:00 p.m. (GMT+1), Royal United Services Institute, UK

The 9/11 Attacks from a Historical Perspective

This event will launch the Royal United Services Institute’s Military History Programme, the framework of which will be a series of monthly lectures and panels, seeking to draw lessons and longer-term insights from seminal past and current events.

Further event details are available at [RUSI].

2 September 2021 @ 9:00-10:00 a.m. (GMT-4), Center for Strategic & International Studies, USA

Rethinking Chinese Politics: A Book Talk

This event is the book launch of Joseph Fewsmith’s Rethinking Chinese Politics. In the book, the author argues in all Leninist systems, political power is difficult to pass on from one leader to the next. Fewsmith traces four decades of elite politics from Deng to Xi, showing how each leader has built power (or not).

More information about the event is provided at [CSIS].

2 September 2021 @ 11:00 a.m. - 12:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Middle East Institute, USA

Syria Today: How Assad “Won” beyond the Military

In this online platform, a panel of journal contributors will discuss broader themes featured in their articles and delve deeper into the internal workings of the Syrian regime.  

More information is accessible via [MEI].

2 September 2021 @ 9:00-10:00 a.m. (GMT-4), Center for Strategic & International Studies, USA

Tunisia – What Now?

What does the future hold for Tunisia? What can the United States and its allies, who together have invested billions of dollars in the Tunisian democratic experiment, do to support Tunisia in its crisis? This online event will answer for these questions.

If you want to know more about the event, click [CSIS].

2 September 2021 @ 12:00-2:00 p.m. (GMT+8), Institute of Policy Studies, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, Singapore

IPS Women’s Conference 2021 Post-conference Lunch on Gender Equality

The webinar will provide opportunities to further discuss key issues that arose during the conference, such as creating more equitable workplaces, recognising and redistributing caregiving responsibilities, and changing gendered mindsets. It will also allow for new dialogues on advancing women’s development that have emerged from recently released reports by the women’s and youth wings of the People’s Action Party and the Association of Women for Action and Research (AWARE).

For more information, please visit [IPS].

2 September 2021 @ 12:00-1:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Center for Strategic & International Studies, USA

Impact of U.S. Sanctions on Aid Delivery in Afghanistan

This webinar provides a discussion on the regulatory and legal challenges to humanitarian assistance and solutions to allow for safe and unimpeded humanitarian assistance to civilians in a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.

For more information, please see [CSIS].

3 September 2021 @ 10:00-11:00 a.m. (GMT-4), Middle East Institute, USA

Iran and the New Afghan Reality: A Cautious Approach

In this online event, a panel of experts will discuss questions about the Taliban, as well as other countries in the region's relationship with the new Afghan state.

If you want to know more about the event, go to [MEI].

3 September 2021 @ 3:00-4:00 p.m. (GMT+8), ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

Vietnam’s Banking Reforms: Treading Water from Global Financial Crisis to Covid-19 Pandemic

This webinar will examine the achievements as well as the shortcomings of Vietnam’s banking reforms since 2011. It will also discuss the prospects of forthcoming reforms and their implications for investors in the next five years.

For more information, please visit [ISEAS].

3 September 2021 @ 04:30 p.m. (GMT +2), Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Stockholm

Taking stock of the Arms Trade Treaty: The first six years and the way forward

The online event aims to stimulate a discussion among the ATT community on the achievements of the ATT during its first six years, the lessons learned, the challenges to ATT implementation, and possible ways forward. The discussion will feature presentations from the authors of the papers. Each paper focuses on a specific aspect of the ATT—its scope, the application of its risk-assessment criteria, its processes and forums, universalization efforts, and the use of international assistance to support implementation—and provides recommendations on how the relevant aspect could be strengthened.

Please see [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute] for more information.

6 September @ 03:30 p.m. (GMT +2), The European Council on Foreign Relations, London

Europe and the Indo-Pacific: Boosting engagement with the key global growth region

While the European Union is set to present its new strategy for the Indo-Pacific, APA and ECFR have teamed up to provide a timely input to the debate. In its latest position paper, the Asia-Pacific Committee of German Business acknowledges that to secure Europe’s prosperity, it is increasingly important to represent European interests more effectively in the high development dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. A common external economic policy approach of the EU and its member states for the Indo-Pacific region will require a lot of work in putting the issue at the top of the agenda and providing it with the necessary political backing. To underscore some of the remaining challenges in moving a European agenda forward, ECFR will also present the results of its recent score card survey in 27 member states on perceptions of and perspectives on the Indo-Pacific in the EU.

Please see [The European Council on Foreign Relations] for more information. 

6 September 2021 Egmont Institute, Brussels

Human Rights in Pandemic Times Political Exceptionalism, Social vulnerability, and restricted freedoms – international and European perspectives

This online event will discuss the issues that the pandemic and the subsequent limitations on fundamental rights and freedoms. It will develop an interdisciplinary approach and will bring to the forefront the European, international, and comparative dimensions of the issues addressed. Bringing together speakers from various Belgian and foreign universities, this symposium is the result of a joint initiative by the research centres attached to all the universities of the French Community and the University of Luxembourg, in partnership with the Egmont Institute.

Please see [The Egmont Institute] for more information.

6 September 2021 @ 11:00 a.m. (GMT +2), Centre for International Governance Innovation, Waterloo

United Nations University WIDER development conference 2021

The 2021 United Nations University (UNU) WIDER Development Conference will take place virtually from September 6 to 8. The three-day conference provides a platform for sharing knowledge on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in different regions across the Global South, with the aim of connecting research and policy communities around the world to discuss how to move forward.

For more information, please see [Centre for International Governance Innovation].

6 September 2021 @ 8:00-10:30 a.m. (GMT+1), Royal United Services Institute, UK

Japan-UK Defence and Security Cooperation

This conference will bring together officials, policymakers, the private sector and experts from both countries to examine future maritime cooperation. It will also look to frame opportunities for potential cyber collaboration in the context of Japan and the UK’s Indo-Pacific interests.

If you want to attend the event, find out how to register at [RUSI].

6 September 2021 @ 12:00-13:00 p.m. (GMT+1), Royal United Services Institute, UK

Paper Launch: Securing Support Advantage: The Transformation of Defence Support

This webinar is to mark the launch of a Briefing Paper on the MoD's Defence Support Strategy by Dr Andrew Curtis, the work will be discussed by the author and Lieutenant General Richard Wardlaw, the Chief of Defence Logistics and Support in Strategic Command.

For more information about the paper launch, please view [RUSI]

7 September 2021 @ 3:30-5:00 p.m. (GMT+8), East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore

Dimensions of China’s ‘discourse power’

This seminar highlights two contradictory impulses at play: the impulse to soften China’s image and accrue respect is countermanded by the compulsion to project strength, at home and abroad.

If you want to know more about the event, go to [EAI].

7 September 2021 @ 10:00-10:45 a.m. (GMT-4), The Heritage Foundation, USA

The 20th Anniversary of 9/11: DHS Has Its Eye Off the Ball

This virtual event offers you to learn about FBI’s role in investigating domestic terrorism, DHS’ proper role in fighting terrorism, how DHS has taken its eye off the ball, and how it can course correct to protect Americans.

More information is accessible via [The Heritage].

7 September 2021 @ 6:30-7:30 p.m. (GMT+10), Australian Institute of International Affairs, Australia

Cruel, Costly and Ineffective: Australia's Offshore Refugee Processing

To mark the day Gillard Labor Government reintroduced the policy of 'offshore processing' of certain asylum seekers in Nauru and Papua New Guinea, Kaldor Centre researchers reviewed offshore processing against its stated policy objectives: ‘stopping the boats’, ‘saving lives’ and ‘breaking the business model’ of people smugglers. The speaker will present the findings of this review, which were recently published in a new Kaldor Centre policy brief.

Further event details are available at [AIIA].

7 September 2021 @ 3:00-4:00 p.m. (GMT+8), ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore

Thai Provincial Politics on the National Scale: Perspectives from Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit

In this webinar, the speaker will discuss the underlying problems of the governing structure of the Thai state and offer his views on why and how the power relations between the central government and local administrations need to change.

Further event details are available at [ISEAS].

7 September 2021 @ 3:00-4:00 p.m. (GMT+1), Chatham House, UK

Iran's political rivalries and their foreign policy implications

This event will explore how the domestic policy contest between key actors has shaped Tehran’s actions on the regional and international stage and Iran’s relationship with the United States.

If you are interested in this event, please visit [Chatham House] for more information.

7 September 2021 @ 6:00-7:00 p.m. (GMT+10), Australian Institute of International Affairs, Australia

Who are you going to call? Consular Crisis Management in the Australian Foreign Service

During the event, the speaker will provide an insider’s view of how the men and women of the service have responded to the challenges thrown at them in the first two decades of the 21st century.

Visit [AIIA] to learn more about the event.

7 September @ 04:00 p.m. (GMT +2), Clingendael Institute, Wassenaar

Special Lecture by Yemen’s minister of foreign affairs

This online event will deal with Yemen, which is facing the looming threat of fragmenting into different statelets after being devastated by civil war for seven years now. As the UN-led peace process has stalled, the peace process needs to be resumed to avoid a fragmented and unstable Yemen in the region. In his speech the Minister will explore the current political, economic and security priorities and sketch his vision for a comprehensive and sustainable peace for all of Yemen. This will require commitment and continued support for the peace process from within Yemen, from the region and from the international community.

Please see [Clingendael Institute] for more information.

7-9 September 2021 @ (GMT+9), Asian Development Bank Institute, Japan

Regional Conference on Health and Socioeconomic Well-Being of Older Persons in Developing Asia: Role of Individual and Household Data

This virtual will explore the role of data in supporting the health and socioeconomic well-being of older persons in Asia and generate policy recommendations for improving data development aimed at raising their quality of life after the pandemic

Please see [ADB] for more information.

8 September 2021 @ 9:00-10:30 a.m. (GMT-4), Center for Strategic & International Studies, USA

Supply Chain Resilience: Opportunities for U.S.-Korea Cooperation

This event is a high-level discussion about the opportunities for cooperation between the United States and Republic of Korea to develop more resilient supply chains for semiconductors and batteries.

If you want to join the event, you can register at [CSIS].

8 September 2021 @ 12:00-1:00 p.m. (GMT-5), The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, USA

The Legacy of America's Longest War

America withdraws its military operations from Afghanistan 20 years after 9/11. In this online event, an expert panel assesses the war on terror’s impact on US foreign and defence policy.

Find more about event details at [The Chicago Council].

8 September 2021 @ 10:00 a.m. - 11:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Wilson Center, USA

Germany and Great Power Competition

This webinar provides a transatlantic discussion of how Germans are debating their future Great Power relationships just weeks before the German federal elections.

If you want to know more about the event, go to [Wilson Center].

8 September 2021 @ 1:00-2:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Center for Strategic & International Studies, USA

Military Challenges to Future NATO Enlargement

This virtual event will bring a conversation on the potential military and budgetary implications of future NATO expansion. Past NATO expansion helped create a Europe whole, free, and at peace, but future expansion, should it occur, faces a hostile and militarily revitalized Russia.

For more information, please see [CSIS]

Recent Book Releases 

Oliver Letwin, China vs America: A Warning, Biteback Publishing, 288 pages, August 24, 2021, reviewed in [The Guardian].

Arthur Turell, The Star Builders: Nuclear Fusion and the Race to Power the Planet, Scribner, 272 pages, August 3, 2021, with a review in [New York Times].

Calls for Papers

Humanities & Social Sciences Communications invites submissions and article proposals for the journal’s rolling article collection dedicated to the topic “Global Governance”. Closing date for submission is September 2021. For more information, see [Nature].

The Organising Committee of The 7th IAFOR International Conference on Education in Hawaii (IICE) is calling for abstract submissions. Abstract submission deadline is October 20, 2021. Find more about the call at [IICE].

Jobs and Positions

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is hiring a Deputy Division Chief, Public Affairs Division. Applications are accepted on a rolling basis. If you are interested, you can find further details at [IMF].

The International Labour Organization is offering the position of a Regional Coordinator for Human Resources to be based in Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire. Deadline for applications is September 27, 2021. Visit [ILO] for more information.

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) is recruiting a Senior Project Assistant to be based in Colombo, Sri Lanka. Applications can be submitted until September 9, 2021. Find out more at [UN Jobnet].

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