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Is Inflation Cooling or Stubbornly High? Both Can Be True.

  • Two key inflation measures are telling opposite stories about where inflation is headed.
  • The 12-month CPI was 2.4% in January, while the Fed’s preferred PCE was 2.9% in December, above its 2% target.
  • The gap between CPI and PCE is largely due to differing weights for housing and healthcare.

 

China Consumer Inflation Beats Expectations on Holiday Boost

  • China’s consumer-price index rose 1.3% in February from a year earlier, exceeding expectations and marking the highest reading in nearly three years.
  • China’s producer-price index dropped 0.9% in February, remaining in deflation for over three years, though economists question sustained easing.
  • Chinese authorities set a conservative GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5% for this year, with reduced fiscal support for consumption.

Germany’s Industrial Rebound Stumbles as Orders, Production Fall

  • German manufacturing orders plunged 11.1% in January 2026, exceeding economists’ expectations for a smaller drop.
  • German industrial production also fell 0.5% in January, following a 1.0% decline in December, Destatis said.
  • The country’s industrial sector faces an uncertain outlook due to weak global demand, Chinese competition, and higher energy costs.

 

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