|
The highest tariffs in almost a century haven’t caused inflation to surge. Some economists believe that’s because many tariffs have yet to kick in.
The WSJ’s Konrad Putzier writes that a new study from Barclays finds the tariffs being paid by importers so far are lower than expected.
Barclays economists studied census data to see what tariffs importers actually paid in May. They found the weighted-average tariff rate—the average of all tariffs, adjusted for import volume from each country—that month was around 9%, well below the 12% they had previously estimated.
That was in part because more than half of U.S. imports were duty-free, according to Barclays.
Goods like pharmaceuticals, certain electronics and many imports from Canada and Mexico were exempted from President Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs. There are also partial exemptions for goods with at least 20% U.S.-made components.
The study noted many U.S. companies and consumers also bought less from countries with higher levies.
The actual rates importers pay are likely to rise in months to come. Many existing loopholes could close, and Trump has threatened additional levies. Barclays expects weighted-average tariffs to end up at around 15%, far higher than last year’s 2.5%.
|
