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December 15, 2020 - Brief Issue 132
The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.
The Coronavirus Daily Brief will be on hiatus for the holidays beginning on December 16. We will return to our regular schedule in January.
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Top Headlines
Covid-19 Vaccinations Begin in the United States (Health & Science)
U.S. Death Toll Reaches 300,000 as Cases Continue to Rise (Health & Science)
Korean Study Finds Coronavirus Transmission Possible From Distances Greater Than Six Feet (Health & Science)
New Coronavirus Variant Identified in U.K. (Health & Science)
Eswatini’s Prime Minister Dies from Covid-19 (Around the World)
Canada Starts Vaccination Program (Around the World)
Peru Halts Trial of Chinese Vaccine (Around the World)
Freezing Northern City in Japan Shows Winter’s Effect on Virus Spread (Around the World)
Santa Visit Could Have Been Superspreader Event in Belgian Care Home (Around the World)
Capitol Hill Close to Closing on Relief Package (U.S. Government & Politics)
Andrew Yang Calls for Stimulus Checks (U.S. Government & Politics)
Stocks Rise on Vaccine News and Hopes for Stimulus Deal (U.S. Economy)
Steel Orders Increase (U.S. Economy)
Surprisingly and for Unclear Reasons, Planet Fitness Survives Amid Pandemic (U.S. Society)
Health & Science
There have been 16,519,628 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 300,482 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 219,287,328 tests. Worldwide, there have been 72,874,163 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,621,838 deaths. At least 41,288,078 people have recovered from the virus.
Covid-19 Vaccinations Begin in the United States
The first U.S. Covid-19 vaccines were administered on Monday in what is considered to be the biggest mass immunization effort since the release of Polio vaccines in the 1950s (WSJ, Politico). Just days after the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was granted emergency use authorization in the U.S., Sandra Lindsay, a critical care nurse at Long Island Jewish Medical Center, became one of the first in the nation to receive the shot. Lindsay thanked her front-line colleagues and said she hoped others would be encouraged to get vaccinated (NPR, NYT).
“I have seen the alternative, and do not want it for you,” she said. “I feel like healing is coming. I hope this marks the beginning of the end of a very painful time in our history.”
Shipments began rolling out to all 50 states on Sunday, with more than 600 sites set to receive vaccines by Wednesday. Front line health care workers are expected to receive most of the vaccines administered this week. Nursing home residents, also on the high-priority list, are expected to start getting immunized next week. For a majority of Americans. vaccinations will not become available until at least spring. Dr. Anothony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, urged Americans to continue wearing masks and social distancing until most of the country had been vaccinated, a milestone he hopes to reach “by the end of the second quarter of 2021.” Bonus Read: “Fauci Explains How to End the COVID Pandemic,” (Scientific American).
U.S. Death Toll Reaches 300,000 as Cases Continue to Rise
Even as vaccines raced to medical sites around the U.S., Covid-19 deaths surpassed 300,000 on Monday (CNN, Johns Hopkins). Over the past week, an average of 2,403 people have died in the United States every day - about one death every 40 seconds. According to health experts, numbers are expected to rise through the winter (BBC). Dr. Robert Redfield, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said last week that he expected the death toll to rise to 3,000 a day “probably for the next 60 to 90 days.”
Cases are still rising quickly and now regularly surpass 200,000 new cases a day. Although the death rate has declined since the spring, hospitals across the country are experiencing strain as intensive care units near capacity, sparking concern that the quality of care for patients will suffer. Bonus Read: “The Best Christmas Gift You Can Give: Wear a Mask, Avoid Other Covid-19 Risks,” (WaPo).
Korean Study Finds Coronavirus Transmission Possible From Distances Greater Than Six Feet
A recent study published in the Journal of Korean Medical Science identified a case of coronavirus transmission that occurred over a distance of 20 feet after just five minutes, challenging the conventional wisdom that six feet is a guaranteed safe distance to stop viral transmission (LA Times).
The study began as an investigation into the case of an individual who contracted Covid-19 in Jeonju, South Korea, notable because there had been no confirmed cases in the city for two weeks prior. A field investigation revealed that out of 538 domestic cases, only one, a visitor from Daejeon, crossed paths with the Jeonju resident. The two individuals ate indoors at the same restaurant four days before the onset of symptoms in the Jeonju patient. Closed circuit television images captured at the restaurant revealed that the two were only in the restaurant at the same time for about five minutes, sitting 6.5 meters (20 feet) apart and never coming any closer or touching any common surfaces.
An environmental air flow analysis found that a series of ceiling air conditioners had created a strong air current flowing from the infected person to the table 20 feet away. After testing contacts of the Daejeon patient, another case was identified in a person at the same restaurant who was seated at another table located in the air current. This patron was seated about 15 feet away from the Daejeon visitor and was not in the restaurant at the same time as the other Jeonju resident. The authors of the study advised health officials to consider additional Covid-19 containment measures in indoor settings. The study highlights the risks of gathering in indoor spaces, particularly those that are not carefully ventilated.
New Coronavirus Variant Identified in U.K.
According to U.K. Health Secretary Matt Hancock, researchers have identified a new variant of Covid-19 that may be responsible for faster viral spread in the southeast of England (CNN). So far, more than 1,000 cases of the new variant have been identified. Hancock said that there is “nothing to suggest that this variant is more likely to cause serious disease,” and added that the mutation is expected to respond to current vaccines. In light of increased viral spread in London and surrounding areas, which may or may not be related to the new variant, increased restrictions are going into place, including prohibitions on outdoor gathering and a shutdown of sit-down dining.
Two More Vaccine Developers Could Seek Authorization in U.S. by February
In addition to the recently approved Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine and the Moderna vaccine, expected to be approved later this week, two more Covid-19 vaccines could be up for review by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) by February (Politico). Interim results from Johnson & Johnson’s U.S. trials could be available at the beginning of January, and the company could receive enough safety data to seek FDA approval at the end of January. AstraZeneca could receive a first look at efficacy data for its U.S. trial at the end of January and potentially seek approval in February. If all goes as hoped, the U.S. could have four vaccines available to help reach its goal of vaccinating 100 million people by the end of March.
Scientists Identify Genetic Variants Linked to Severe Covid-19
Scientists in the GenOMICC Consortium, a global collaboration that studies emerging infectious diseases, have identified four clusters of genetic mutations that are associated with more severe Covid-19 symptoms (WaPo). Some of the affected genes include those that participate in the antiviral immune response, suggesting a possible avenue for treatment. The study, published in the journal Nature on Friday, identified the genetic variants by analyzing the genomes of more than 2,000 Covid-19 patients in intensive care units across Britain and comparing them with the genomes of healthy people.
Dr. Tom Hemming Karlsen, a physician at the University of Oslo who did not contribute to the study, said that genomic studies such as these provide “very specific starting points” for future research but do not often yield quick development of therapeutics. Dr. Sara Clohisey, an author on the study, said, “it’s unlikely that a single element is fully responsible for the development of severe Covid-19,” pointing out the combination of age, health conditions, and other factors that have been identified as risk factors. The researchers plan to continue analyzing DNA samples from Covid-19 patients, both those with severe and mild illnesses, in order to further clarify the role genetics may play in disease severity.
Three California Studies Suggest Wearable Tech Could Detect Covid-19 Symptoms Early
Three different studies from California institutions – the University of California in San Francisco, Stanford University and Scripps Research Translational Institute in San Diego – found that wearable devices such as the Fitbit or Apple Watch could be used to detect early signs of Covid-19 such as elevated heart rate or temperature (STAT).
The UCSF study analyzed data from 50 people who reported having Covid-19. The study found that temperature data from the wearable Oura ring correctly identified coronavirus infections in 76% of participants about three days before they developed symptoms. The Stanford study recruited over 5,000 users of different wearable devices and found that symptoms were detected 4-7 days prior to symptom onset in 63% of the 53 participants who developed Covid-19. The Scripps study, which was similar to the Stanford study in design and scope, found that by pairing data on sleep, activity, heart rate and temperature, more than 80% of the 54 reported Covid-19 cases were detected by the devices before symptom onset.
The researchers plan to conduct additional studies in order to learn how to reduce the rate of false positives, when the devices flag potential Covid-19 cases in healthy people. Oura, which partnered with UCSF for its study, is already offering deals to professional sports teams who want to use the technology to keep players safe. Most researchers anticipate that it will take a little longer before the technology is optimized for consumers, however. Researchers are hopeful that wearable technology could eventually be used as an early alert system for other types of illnesses in addition to Covid-19.
Bonus Reads: “The Coronavirus at 1: A Year Into the Pandemic, What Scientists Know About How it Spreads, Infects, and Sickens,” (STAT); “Let Patients Speak for Themselves on the Biden Task Force and Elsewhere,” (STAT), “When Will Covid Vaccines Be Available for Kids?” (WSJ).
Around the World
Africa
Eswatini’s Prime Minister Dies from Covid-19
Prime Minister Ambrose M. Dlamini of Eswatini died of Covid-19 on Sunday, according to a statement from the government. He was 52. The deputy prime minister, Themba Masuku, notified the country in a statement on Twitter; “His excellency passed on this afternoon while under medical care in a hospital in South Africa,” the statement read. Mr. Masuku added, “May his soul rest in peace.” According to Reuters, Mr. Dlamini was moved to a hospital in South Africa two weeks ago after contracting coronavirus in November. He had served as prime minister for two years in Africa’s last absolute monarchy.
Americas
Canada Starts Vaccination Program
Canada began its vaccination program on Monday, with the first doses of the vaccine going to people from nursing homes, including healthcare workers in Toronto and residents in Montreal and Quebec City (CBC, NYT). Nursing homes have been particularly hard-hit in Canada and the government has faced criticism over their unpreparedness to handle the onslaught of the virus among the vulnerable. Canada was the third country in the world to approve the vaccine created by Pfizer and BioNTech and the first shipment arrived in Montreal on Sunday night. From there, the doses were dispersed to 14 sites across the country that were able to keep the vaccines in ultracold freezers. Canada has agreed to buy up to 76 million doses from Pfizer and 414 million doses of potential vaccines from other companies to cover the population of 38 million; Anita Anand, Canada’s minister of public services and procurement, described that as “the most number of doses per capita of any country in the world” at a news conference Monday. Much of Canada is still in lockdown as they deal with another wave of the virus.
Peru Halts Trial of Chinese Vaccine
Peru has suspended clinical trials for an experimental coronavirus vaccine manufactured by the Chinese company Sinopharm after there was a report of a “serious adverse event” in a study volunteer (NYT). Pilar Mazzetti, Peru’s minister of health, stressed in a statement on Saturday that the pause in the trials was intended to ensure the vaccine’s safety, and noted the importance of continuing to wear masks and maintain physical distance even in the wake of widespread vaccination. The volunteer’s illness involved feeling weakness in the legs, a medical researcher told a radio station in Lima.
Asia
Freezing Northern City in Japan Shows Winter’s Effect on Virus Spread
Asahikawa, a city in Japan’s northern Hokkaido prefecture, is weathering the worst of its Covid-19 crisis, according to local medical officials (Reuters). The city was hit hard by outbreaks at two major hospitals which were then exacerbated by sub-zero temperatures and restricted ventilation that helped the virus spread. Asahikawa, a city of 340,000, has so far accounted for 821 cases and 65 deaths, or 20%, of the northern island of Hokkaido’s 330 fatalities. That equates to a case fatality rate of about 8% for the city, compared to about 1% for Japan’s 182,305 cases so far. The mayor, Masahito Nishikawa, urged residents to stay home last month in a voluntary lockdown and said there weren’t enough medical staff to respond to new infections or other accidents and illnesses. Japan’s central government dispatched nurses from Japan’s Self-Defense Forces to assist hospital staff. Researchers have warned that airborne transmission of the virus increases when people gather in closed rooms breathing dry air, a situation that is common in Hokkaido, where some of Japan’s coldest temperatures have been recorded.
Europe
Santa Visit Could Have Been Superspreader Event in Belgian Care Home
A visit to a Belgian care home by a man playing Santa Claus may have been responsible for 75 coronavirus infections and one death (CNN). According to a statement made by the municipality of Mol in the Flanders region, the care home committed an “error in judgment” in allowing the visit to take place (Irish Times). The statement said “in-depth scientific research” would be needed to say whether the visit was the cause of the outbreak, but 61 residents and 14 staff members have tested positive so far after the name who played Santa also tested positive following his visit. He "was not feeling sick at the time of the visit" and "the activity was not cleared beforehand with the crisis center, otherwise negative advice would have been given," the municipality said. Belgium, with a population of 11.5 million, has recorded 608,137 coronavirus cases and 17.951 deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
U.S. Government & Politics
Capitol Hill Close to Closing on Relief Package
A bipartisan group of lawmakers released two bills on Monday that they say will provide economic relief to Americans amid the pandemic and senior congressional officials sounded more positive about the possibility of agreeing to the newly proposed measures than they have in weeks (WaPo, Politico). The first bill, worth $748 billion, includes unemployment benefits, small business aid, and other programs that have garnered broad bipartisan support. The second bill includes liability protections for firms and $160 billion in aid for state and local governments, two provisions that have been more divisive among lawmakers, but these two could be excluded from a final deal if it means passing the most popular provisions. Congressional leaders have indicated that there is momentum building for approving some form of economic relief package before the Christmas recess. According to the Washington Post, “The effort to break the months-long legislative logjam over economic aid has been spearheaded by Sens. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Mark R. Warner (D-Va.), Mitt Romney (R-Utah) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), among other centrist lawmakers who appeared together at a news conference Monday. It reflects a shift in strategy, as rank-and-file members are trying to spearhead the initiative instead of deferring to congressional leaders.”
Andrew Yang Calls for Stimulus Checks
Former candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination and entrepreneur Andrew Yang entered the discussion on potential stimulus and relief bills, urging Congress to provide Americans with stimulus checks directly (Politico). Politico writes, “As Congress remains at an impasse over Covid-19 relief, onetime presidential hopeful Andrew Yang and his nonprofit Humanity Forward are lobbying more than 60 lawmakers in the House and Senate to give Americans stimulus checks. Already, he’s paired with two lawmakers who introduced a stand-alone bill in the House based on Yang’s drive for stimulus.” Yang, whose signature issue was providing Americans with a universal basic income, told Politico, “We reached out to various members of Congress that we thought would be receptive and aligned with the fact that cash relief would be the most impactful way to help the folks that they saw were struggling in their communities.” The representatives who have adopted a call for checks based on Yang’s proposal include Lisa Blunt Rochester, a democratic representative from Delaware, David McKinlely a Republican from West Virginia, and Hakeem Jeffries, a New York Democrat who also holds the number five spot in the Democratic house leadership. Politico writes, “Under Blunt Rochester and McKinley’s bill, individuals would receive $1,000 while couples would get $2,000, and each dependent would get $1,000. The cash payment would be less for individuals making at least $75,000 or for joint filers who make $150,000 or more. Twelve Democrats and 12 Republicans have joined Blunt Rochester and McKinley as co-sponsors.” Other lawmakers who have pushed for direct checks include Senator and also former candidate for the Democratic nomination Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO).
UnitedHealth Hires Former Trump Official Who Selected It to Provide Relief Funds
A unit of UnitedHealth Group has hired William Brady, a former chief of staff to the deputy secretary at the department of Health and Human Services who had also been involved in selecting the company to disburse Covid relief funds (Politico). Politico notes that it had previously reported, “that Brady and fellow senior HHS official Jim Parker led the decision-making process that resulted in UnitedHealth getting the government contract. In early April, Brady announced that UnitedHealth would be making the relief payments under the CARES Act.” Politico also notes that Brady’s hiring is not the first instance of questions about the group’s ties to the process that selected it, writing, “Brady is the second Trump administration official involved with the recovery payment program to have a financial connection to UnitedHealth. Steven Parente, then a White House economist, decided the methodology for how to make the initial $30 billion in payments, and he attracted scrutiny because before joining the Trump administration he served as a consultant to UnitedHealth, among other companies. A spokesperson for the Council of Economic Advisers, where Parente worked, said Parente was not responsible for the choice of UnitedHealth to administer the program and had no role in making contracting decisions at HHS. Parente declined to comment.”
U.S. Economy
Stocks Rise on Vaccine News and Hopes for Stimulus Deal
On Monday, the stock market rose amid news that vaccines were beginning to rollout in the United States and hopes that the U.S. government might pass a Covid stimulus and relief package (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “Technology stocks climbed Monday, continuing a robust 2020 rally that has propelled much of the market’s gains since March. The Nasdaq Composite Index, home to many of the U.S.’s biggest tech stocks, outperformed its peers Monday. The benchmark ticked up 1%, extending its gains for the year to 39%. The S&P 500 edged up less than 0.1%, also propelled higher by the tech sector, which was the only one of the index’s 11 groups in the green. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 33 points, or 0.1%, reversing a morning gain of as much as 279 points. The S&P and Dow are up 13% and 5.2%, respectively, for the year.” Bonus Read: “Where Do Covid-19 Vaccine Stocks Go From Here?,” (WSJ).
Steel Orders Increase
Steel orders have increased in recent months following a substantial slowdown in orders due to the pandemic, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal on Monday (WSJ). The Journal reports, “The benchmark price for hot-rolled sheet steel has doubled since early August to a two-year high of $900 a ton, according to S&P Global Platts. Steel distributors said soaring prices and the reduced availability of steel have touched off panic-buying by some manufacturers.” In contrast, in the spring, “Steelmakers idled about one-third of domestic production capacity for flat-rolled steel this spring when their customers canceled orders and closed plants to slow the spread of the new coronavirus.” Bill Hickey, the chairman of Lapham-Hickey Steel Corp, a distribution company, told the Journal, “There are people buying more than they need.” Another measure of the increased demand is that lead times for orders have increased to about 10 weeks having previously been about four during the summer. While orders are increasing, and production is again rising, production still remains below what it was last year.
U.S. Society
Surprisingly and for Unclear Reasons, Planet Fitness Survives Amid Pandemic
The gym and fitness company Planet Fitness not only survived but has done well during the pandemic, despite the pandemic harming many of its competitors due to the restrictions on gyms and it is not clear why, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday (WSJ). The Journal writes, “while many large and small competitors were pushed into bankruptcy by the pandemic, Planet Fitness somehow gained all the weight back, and then some. Its shares on Monday morning were trading 8% higher than a year ago. That makes no sense.” Planet Fitness’s model of charging little and making cancellation difficult had served the company well until governments began to respond to the pandemic with restrictions on social activity, leading to a 1.5 million drop in members between March and October as customers cancelled and vented their anger at the difficulty of doing so. The company was not immune to the impact. The Journal notes, “While overall revenue fell by 37% year over year, equipment revenue, the lucrative business of outfitting and periodically refurbishing franchised gyms, tumbled by 71%. The company was forced to offer a discount of 15% on equipment to support new store openings and it gave franchisees a 12-month extension on ‘development requirements.’ Growth in new gyms has, not surprisingly, fallen far short of expectations. Planet Fitness ended the quarter at about one-third of its original 2020 store-growth target and has suspended financial guidance.” Even so, investors still seem to be optimistic. The Journal, however, sounds a cautionary note, writing, “It is hard to square the damage and continuing uncertainty from Covid-19 with a stock trading at 60 times next year’s earnings.”
Bonus Reads: “Perfume. Wrist Buzzers. Hypnosis. How People Try to Stop Touching Their Faces,” (WSJ); “Covid-19’s Painful—and Essential—Lessons for America’s Schools,” (WSJ).
Analysis & Arguments
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