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January 11, 2021 - Brief Issue 135

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

U.S. Marks New Record, More Than 4,000 Covid-19 Deaths in One Day; More Than 27,000 Deaths in 2021 (Health & Science)

Fast-Spreading B117 Coronavirus Variant Likely Circulating Across U.S.; Preliminary Study Finds Pfizer-BioNTech Vaccine Remains Effective Against Variants (Health & Science)

Study Finds Most People Still Immune to Covid-19 Eight Months Post-Infection (Health & Science)

Biden Administration Plans to Release All Available Vaccine Doses (Health & Science)

Majority of Hospitalized Covid-19 Patients Still Experience Health Problems Six Months Later (Health & Science)

Hospitals Say That Federally Supplied Syringes Waste Vaccine Doses (Health & Science)

Mexico Hits Record Daily Case Count as U.K. Variant Arrives (Around the World)

Pressure Mounts in U.K. to Tighten Lockdown (Around the World)

Pope Reconsiders Iraq Visit Amid Covid-19 Concerns (Around the World)

South Korea Infections Subside After December Peak (Around the World)

Vietnam Halts Most International Flights Ahead of Lunar New Year (Around the World)

New Coronavirus Strain Discovered in Japan (Around the World)

After Pro-Trump Riot, Attending Physician Warns Congress and Congressional Aides of RIsk of Coronavirus Transmission (U.S. Government & Politics)

U.S. Lost a Net of 140,000 Jobs in December; All Held by Women; Black and Latina Women Lost Jobs While White Women Gained Jobs on Net (U.S. Economy)

Remote Work Makes it Easier for Some Transgender Workers to Come Out (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 22,410,249 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 374,341 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 265,555,566 tests and distributed 22,137,350 vaccine doses, with 6,688,231 people initiating vaccination (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 90,367,346 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,936,436 deaths. At least 50,080,157 people have recovered from the virus.

U.S. Marks New Record, More Than 4,000 Covid-19 Deaths in One Day; More Than 27,000 Deaths in 2021

On Thursday, the U.S. reported more than 4,000 deaths from Covid-19, the most since the start of the pandemic (CIDRAP, Johns Hopkins). In total, more than 27,000 people in the U.S. died of Covid-19 in the first 10 days of 2021 (CNN). These milestones come as case numbers continue to rise. If the trend continues, January could see more deaths than December, which in the U.S. saw a record 77,431 Covid-19 deaths.

Fast-Spreading B117 Coronavirus Variant Likely Circulating Across U.S.; Preliminary Study Finds Pfizer-BioNTech Vaccine Remains Effective Against Variants

Eight U.S. states now have confirmed cases of the B117 Coronavirus variant, the highly contagious strain originally identified in the United Kingdom (CIDRAP). Texas, Pennsylvania and Connecticut became the most recent states to identify cases. The Texas case, a Harris County resident, occurred in an individual with no travel history, suggesting that the virus is already circulating in the area. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said they suspect the variant is circulating in many states and that more cases will be identified in the coming weeks (WaPo).

The B117 variant is concerning because of its high transmissibility. It is 50-70% more contagious than the common strain, and it is hitting the country at a time when many hospitals are already under strain from the influx of Covid-19 patients. Officials have highlighted the need for rapid distribution of vaccines and increased control measures. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently allocated $22 billion to fund testing and vaccination in an effort to bring an end to the pandemic. Bonus Read: “We Lost to SARS-CoV-2 in 2020. We Can Defeat B-117 in 2021,” (STAT).

Researchers from Pfizer and the University of Texas Medical Branch have reported that the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine remains effective against a mutation found in several coronavirus variants, including the B117 variant identified in the U.K. and another found in South Africa (STAT). In the study, which was published as a preprint and has not yet been peer reviewed, the researchers engineered a mutant version of the virus and used blood taken from 20 people who had received the vaccine to assess immune response. As expected, they found that the immune response was similar in mutated and non-mutated versions of the virus. The U.K. and South Africa coronavirus variants contain multiple mutations, whereas the engineered virus in this study had just a single mutation; additional research will focus on testing vaccines against the full variants. Scientists expect that the vaccines currently approved or in development will remain effective against the variant strains that have so far been identified.

Study Finds Most People Still Immune to Covid-19 Eight Months Post-Infection

A study published last week in the journal Science found that post-infection immunity to Covid-19 is typically still strong eight months post-infection (WaPo). The study assessed immune memory in 188 recovered Covid-19 patients. Of these patients, 43 were assessed between six and eight months post-infection. By testing for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 and checking levels of B cells and T cells – immune cells that help the body quickly respond to reinfections – the researchers were able to determine how long Covid-19 immunity lasted in their test subjects. Most of the infected individuals, including about 90% of people six to eight months post-infection, had indicators of robust immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Although incidents of re-infection have been reported, these cases appear relatively rare, and the Science study is consistent with other reports of relatively long-lasting immunity.

However, the authors of the study say that those who have already been infected should not let their guard down just yet. Dr. Alessandro Sette, one of the lead investigators on the study, told the Washington Post, “People still need to be responsible. It’s like driving a car where you know you have 90 percent probability that the brakes work.” However, Dr. Sette also noted reasons to be hopeful, saying that he “wouldn’t be surprised if the immunity would last for years.”

Biden Administration Plans to Release All Available Vaccine Doses

In a break from the Trump administration’s plan to hold back half of all coronavirus vaccines for second doses, the Biden administration plans to prioritize first doses and release all available doses immediately (CNN, STAT). The Biden team has said that the President-elect is confident that manufacturing can keep up with demand as more people receive vaccines.

Some experts have voiced their support for the policy change, including former Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, who said it was “a prudent move that will help expand Covid vaccine access to more high-risk patients at a time when the epidemic is worsening.” Researchers have pointed out that withholding doses could mean many more Americans will contract and spread the coronavirus over the coming weeks and months. A preliminary analysis based on small amounts of clinical trial data even suggests that the first dose of the vaccines could reduce transmission by up to 85%.

Operation Warp Speed officials pushed back against the Biden plan, saying that vaccine reserves are needed to ensure supply chain availability and that the new plan could run counter to official FDA label authorization if manufacturing were to fall behind. In many places, however, vaccine administration is not limited by insufficient vaccine supply, but by disorganization and the lack of a well-funded, centralized plan, highlighting the many additional challenges the Biden administration faces in regards to the vaccination effort. Bonus Read: “Releasing More Vaccines for First Doses Could Create More Problems Than it Solves,” (WaPo).

Majority of Hospitalized Covid-19 Patients Still Experience Health Problems Six Months Later

A large study conducted in Wuhan, China and published on Friday in The Lancet found that about three-quarters of patients who were hospitalized with Covid-19 still experienced persistent health problems six months later (NYT, STAT). The study followed up with 1733 discharged patients approximately six months after hospital discharge, assessing for lingering symptoms. Of these patients, 63% were still experiencing fatigue or muscle weakness, 26% reported sleep difficulties, and 23% reported anxiety or depression. The authors noted that these symptoms are consistent with long-term follow-up studies on SARS survivors, which found that some patients experience chronic symptoms, particularly fatigue, years after infection.

Hospitals Say That Federally Supplied Syringes Waste Vaccine Doses

Soon after Pfizer and BioNTech began distributing their vaccine, pharmacists found that the five-dose vaccine vials actually contained enough to extract six or seven doses. The extra doses helped stretch supplies as hospitals raced to deliver vaccines to the first recipients. However, some syringes supplied by Operation Warp Speed, the U.S. Covid-19 vaccine program, are not efficient enough to extract the sixth dose (Politico). Some hospitals are concerned that the lower-efficiency syringes will prevent them from giving second doses to everyone they have vaccinated so far. According to the Department of Health and Human Services, Operation Warp Speed is aware of the issue and is working on supplying more efficient syringes. Mitchel Rothholz, the immunization policy lead for the American Pharmacists Association, said that booster shots are sent out based on the number of initial shots, not vials, at a given location, which should mean that there will be enough second doses to go around.

States Struggle to Handle Last-Mile Vaccine Distribution Logistics

Although 22 million doses have been distributed to states, only about 6.7 million people have initiated vaccination in the U.S. – far below the goal of 20 million by the end of December. The slow rollout seems to be at least in part due to the difficulties in relying on a decentralized system to sort out the logistics of getting shots from storage into arms (WSJ). Supply chain experts say that tight state and local health agency budgets, already strained by the pandemic, are behind delays in vaccination. There was also some initial confusion about how many doses states were to receive, and restrictive federal guidelines on who should be immunized may have contributed to slow rollout. Although a more centralized approach could speed vaccine distribution, experts also note that a decentralized approach allows states to tailor their vaccination programs to their own infrastructure and population needs.

Two Arthritis Drugs Show Promise in Reducing Covid-19 Mortality

A new international study published as a pre-print has found that two arthritis drugs may provide some benefit to critically ill Covid-19 patients (NYT). The study, which has not yet been peer reviewed, examined outcomes of more than 800 patients in critical condition in intensive care units. Patients were given either standard treatment or were treated with either tocilizumab or sarilumab, two arthritis drugs that inhibit certain parts of the immune inflammatory response. Mortality among patients who received treatment with the drugs was about 27%, compared to 36% for patients who received standard care.

Based on the study, the British government issued guidance on Friday encouraging health care providers to use the drugs to treat critically ill Covid-19 patients. Although experts welcome the encouraging findings, many advise the results be interpreted with caution. Previous trials have found little or no effect of treatment for these and similar drugs. Dr. Emma Kaplan-Lewis, an infectious disease expert who helped run previous trials with tocilizumab, noted that studies can be difficult to compare since each has its own set of patients and clinical conditions. Many of the patients in this trial were taking steroids such as dexamethasone, suggesting that tocilizumab and sarilumab may boost the effects of other drug regimens. Dr. Kaplan-Lewis said that additional studies are needed to understand which patients might benefit from the drug treatments and under which conditions.

Three Studies Find Low Covid-19 Risk for In-Person School

Three recent studies out of the United States, Sweden and Norway each found low risk of Covid-19 infection and transmission in schools, adding to the growing body of research suggesting that in-person school is a relatively low-risk activity.

The U.S. study, published in Pediatrics and led by Duke University researchers, traced contacts of North Carolina students who had been infected with Covid-19 during the first nine weeks of in-person school in the fall. The study assessed 11 districts with more than 90,000 students and staff. Contact tracing found that 773 cases of community-acquired coronavirus infections resulted in 32 in-school secondary cases, with six districts reporting no secondary cases, two reporting one case each, and three reporting multiple cases. No cases of in-school child-to-adult spread were reported. Schools implemented several mitigation methods, including daily screenings, mask wearing, public case reporting, contact tracing and detailed daily scheduling.

The Swedish study, led by Karolinska Institute researchers and published in The New England Journal of Medicine, studied spread between March 1 and June 30, when community spread was prevalent and schools were kept open. The study found that, despite keeping schools open, few children were treated for severe Covid-19 complications. Preschool teachers during that time period had a slightly higher risk of being treated for severe Covid-19 compared to people in other occupations, while teachers of students 7-16 years of age had a lower relative risk. During the study period, physical distancing was encouraged, but other mitigation measures such as mask wearing were not.

The study from Norway, led by researchers at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health in Oslo and published in Eurosurveillance, conducted contact tracing between August and November for primary school children ages 5-13 in the two counties with the highest community spread. Thirteen children were identified as having community-acquired Covid-19 cases, and four of these went to school with mild symptoms. Of 234 child contacts tested for Covid-19, only two tested positive. One adult out of 58 tested positive.

The authors of these studies highlighted the need to control Covid-19 transmission at the community level, saying that because school transmission is generally low, closing schools has a relatively small impact. The authors of the U.S. study emphasized the importance of schools to public health and to the economy and advised the use of mitigation policies like masking and physical distancing to safely open schools.

Around the World

WHO Director Calls for Equitable Vaccine Distribution

World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Gheybreyesus called on vaccine makers and wealthier nations to ensure that low- and middle-income countries have equitable access to Covid-19 vaccines (CIDRAP, Reuters). Although many lower-income nations are seeking vaccines, wealthier countries have bought most of the supply. Tedros urged wealthy nations and vaccine manufacturers to stop striking bilateral deals, which effectively raise vaccine prices for everyone and prevent lower-income nations from vaccinating their essential workers and high-risk residents. He also asked manufacturers to prioritize supplying vaccines to COVAX, the WHO-led vaccine initiative, and encouraged countries with extra doses to release the excess to COVAX immediately. The comments came as the European Commission announced an E.U. deal with Pfizer that would give European countries nearly half of Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccines for 2021. 

The Americas

Mexico Hits Record Daily Case Count as U.K. Variant Arrives

Mexico registered 16,105 new coronavirus cases on Saturday, the nation’s newest record since the pandemic’s beginning. With 1,135 dead, it also marked the fifth consecutive day of more than 1,000 fatalities. Given Mexico’s patchy testing infrastructure, experts suspect the real case count may be far higher (Reuters). On Sunday, Mexico also reported its first case of the more infectious B117 variant first reported in December in the U.K., raising concerns that the ongoing spike will intensify. The carrier of the new strain was a 56-year-old British man who tested positive after arriving in the northern city of Matamoros on December 29. He remains hospitalized there, having been put on a ventilator on Saturday. The search is ongoing for a dozen people who traveled on the same flight from Mexico City to Matamoros. The rest of the people onboard the 45-passenger flight, including the crew, have all tested negative (Reuters). 

Cuba Tightens Heath Restrictions Amid Surge

Cuban health authorities announced new restrictions on Saturday as the island nation sees new records in daily infections. Interprovincial travels and cultural activities have been suspended in a bid to contain the virus, with authorities blaming careless Christmas and New Year partying for the new spike, as well as diaspora travelers from the U.S. breaking quarantine restrictions. While Cuba had been largely successful in containing the virus, with most cases concentrated in Havana, the relaxing of restrictions in November, which included the reopening of the border, was followed by a record 3,675 new cases in December. The nation saw 365 new cases on January 9, a daily record since the pandemic began. It has seen a total of 14,188 cases and 148 deaths since the virus arrived on the island last March (Reuters). 

Europe 

Pressure Mounts in U.K. to Tighten Lockdown 

Ministers in the U.K. face calls to tighten public health restrictions amid fears that current protocols do not go far enough to contain the new, more infectious variant of coronavirus. Health Secretary Matt Hancock said on Sunday that the National Healthcare System was “probably under the greatest pressure it ever has been” as the U.K. reported 54,940 new cases on Sunday. Recent health models suggest that one in five people in the U.K. may have already been infected, representing around 12.4 million people. Labour Party leader Keir Starmer told the BBC that nurseries should perhaps be closed. “Quite a lot of people are surprised that primary schools are closed and that nurseries aren’t closed,” he said. The bad news came as the U.K. plans to open seven mass vaccination sites across the country on Monday. More than 500,000 people above the age of 80 are expected to receive letters in the coming days inviting them to receive the vaccinations (Guardian).

Pope Reconsiders Iraq Visit Amid Covid-19 Concerns 

Pope Francis said in an interview aired on Sunday that he doubts that he will be able to make a planned trip to Iraq in March over concerns related to the coronavirus pandemic. The trip, scheduled to take place from March 5-8, would be the first time that a pope has visited Iraq, where he had planned to visit the city of Ur, the home of the prophet Abraham according to Jewish, Christian and Islamic traditions. In an interview with an Italian television station on Sunday, Francis lamented being forced to cancel international trips amid the pandemic. “Yes, I had to cancel trips ... because in good conscience, I can’t be the cause of gatherings of people, right? Now I don’t know if the trip to Iraq can take place. Life has changed,” he said (Reuters). The Pope also used the interview to command Catholics to accept the vaccines amid concerns from anti-abortion circles that stem cells were involved in the development process. "It is an ethical duty to take the vaccine, here in the Vatican we will start next week, I am also in line to take it," he said (CNN).

Asia-Pacific

South Korea Infections Subside After December Peak

South Korea has reported fewer than 500 new cases for the first time since December’s record case load. The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency registered 451 new cases at midnight on Sunday, down from an all-time peak of 1,241 infections reported on Christmas Day. The new outbreak has prompted unprecedented health restrictions in the nation, which has seen a low overall total case count of 69,114 infections since the pandemic began. While authorities stopped short of ordering a total lockdown, life in South Korea resembled the situation in far-worse hit countries, with bars and gyms ordered closed and restaurants only allowed to offer takeaway services. Private gatherings have also been limited to four people. The nation has successfully relied on an aggressive test and trace system to contain the virus since the pandemic’s beginning, but fears linger that the new outbreak could overwhelm the system (Reuters). 

Vietnam Halts Most International Flights Ahead of Lunar New Year

The Vietnamese government announced over the weekend that almost all inbound flights from abroad will be suspended until the end of the Lunar New Year in mid-February in a bid to prevent transmission of the new B117 variant of the coronavirus. Only flights approved by the ministries of health, defense, public security, foreign affairs and transport will be allowed to arrive in extraordinary situations. Vietnam, which has not had a case of local transmission in 39 days, has largely been spared from Covid-19, with only 1,513 cases and 35 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. Its borders have been almost entirely closed since March 2020, with only flights for repatriated citizens and foreign business travelers deemed “experts” allowed to enter, with all passengers required to undergo a 14-day quarantine in state-run centers. The tightened restrictions on entry coincide with the quinquennial Communist Party of Vietnam’s National Congress at the end of January, the biggest political event on the nation’s calendar (Tuoi Tre).

New Coronavirus Strain Discovered in Japan

Yet another new strain of the coronavirus was discovered in Japan, health officials reported on Sunday. The variant, which includes 12 mutations, was discovered in travelers from Brazil’s Amazonas state who arrived on January 2. Two of the mutations were also discovered in the highly contagious B117 variant discovered last month in the U.K. and South Africa. Takaji Wakita, head of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, told a health ministry briefing that there is no sign that the new strain from Brazil is more likely to be transmitted. “At the moment, there is no proof showing the new variant found in those from Brazil is high in infectiousness,” he said. Japan also declared a state of emergency on Thursday amid a massive new spike. New cases peaked above 5,000 for the first time last week, reaching a record 7,863 on January 8 (Reuters).

China Sees Biggest Case Spike Since July

The 85 new COVID-19 patients in mainland China reported on Monday is the biggest daily rise in local transmission since July 30, reported the health ministry. The infections are centered around Hebei province, which surrounds Beijing and Tianjin. The central government has responded aggressively to the new hotspot, with outbound vehicle traffic from the provincial capital Shijiazhuang halted and the population subject to a new lockdown. China also reported 76 new asymptomatic cases, which are not included as confirmed infections in official statistics, as well as 18 new imported cases. Outside of Hebei, which is home to 11 million people, life continues normally as China has mostly contained the pandemic within its borders since the middle of last year (Reuters). Bonus Read: “A Year After Wuhan, China Tells a Tale of Triumph (and No Mistakes),” (NYT)

U.S. Government & Politics

After Pro-Trump Riot, Attending Physician Warns Congress and Congressional Aides of RIsk of Coronavirus Transmission

As lawmakers and congressional aides huddled together amid rioters breaching the capitol on Wednesday, they may have been exposed to coronavirus, the Office of the Attending Physician warned on Sunday (Politico, WaPo, NYT). In an email to lawmakers and their staff, Congress’ attending physician Brian Monahan noted that many had spent hours “in protective isolation” adding, “During this time, individuals may have been exposed to another occupant with coronavirus infection.” The email urged, “Additionally, individuals should obtain an RT-PCR coronavirus test next week as a precaution.” On Friday, CDC Director Robert Redfield warned of the risk of spread beyond lawmakers as a result of the riot, saying, “You have to anticipate that this is another surge event.” Former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb told CBS, “There’s going to be chains of transmission that come out of that kind of mass gathering.” The mob that breached the Capitol had gathered in Washington D.C. to hear Trump and other Republican figures call for challenges to the result of the election, as Congress met to confirm the electoral college results in what is traditionally a mere formality. 

Bonus Read: “‘It Became Sort of Lawless’: Florida Vaccine Rollout Turns Into a Free-for-All,” (NYT).

U.S. Economy

U.S. Lost a Net of 140,000 Jobs in December; All Held by Women; Black and Latina Women Lost Jobs While White Women Gained Jobs on Net

On Friday, the Department of Labor released new data, showing that the United States lost a net of 140,000 jobs in December (CNN). Notably the entirety of the net loss was among women with women losing 156,000 jobs on net while men gained 16,000 jobs on net. Moreover, on net, Black and Latina women lost jobs while white women gained jobs in December, according to a separate survey. CNN notes, “These are net numbers, which can mask some of the underlying churn in the labor market. Of course many men lost their jobs in December, too — but when taken together as a group, they came out ahead, whereas women fell behind.” 

Automakers Idle Factories and Face Disruptions Amid Pandemic-Related Parts Shortages

Automakers are facing a rough start to 2021 as they idle factories amid parts shortages that are partially the result of pandemic-related disruptions in supply chains (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “A chip shortage that has disrupted vehicle production in other parts of the globe is reaching U.S. shores, stifling output for major car companies and dimming prospects for a smooth recovery from the pandemic.” Ford Motor Co. plans to idle a Louisville, Kentucky factory, resulting in temporary layoffs for 3,900 workers. Meanwhile, the Journal notes, “Honda Motor Co., Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV and others are also wrestling with the shortage, leading them to reduce output on everything from big pickup trucks to compact sedans.” The shortages hit an industry that was already wrestling with the impact of the pandemic.

U.S. Society

Remote Work Makes it Easier for Some Transgender Workers to Come Out

As the pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, new remote work arrangements have made it easier for some workers to come out as transgender, the Wall Street Journal reports (WSJ). The Journal writes, “For those who decide to come out as transgender, the workplace can be a big hurdle—using the bathrooms, keeping up a new appearance and dealing with reactions from co-workers. But with many offices going remote, more transgender employees are concluding they can come out while letting their work—not their gender identity—speak for them.” River Bailey, a 41-year-old software developer, told the Journal, “It gave me the freedom to just be able to exist.” The Journal writes, “She made the move in late 2019 via a Slack message to colleagues at her all-remote software-consulting agency. She considers herself lucky to work in a sector that can offer remote positions, because most of the trans people she knows have jobs in stores, warehouses, and restaurants.” Bailey commented, “I could make a statement that was vulnerable and uncomfortable in the safety of my office here at home, and then I could step away from the computer for a little bit and calm down.” Fen Slattery, a non-binary transgender person who works for a Chicago website consulting firm, told the Journal about working from the office, “If I had to describe it, imagine going to work when having people hearing you talk and seeing you is immensely painful.” The Journal adds, “Mx. Slattery had some flexibility to work remotely when beginning to transition in 2019, increasingly working from home while juggling trips to the courthouse for name changes and doctor visits. Mx. Slattery was able to keep in touch with colleagues via Slack and avoid video calls, which they said made it easier for everyone to focus on work.” Kiri Stewart, a 39-year-old nonbinary trans woman told the Journal about her experience, “If you try to be very feminine as a trans woman, you’re often seen as a caricature or stereotype, but if you don’t try then you’re just seen as a man or as a trans person who isn’t trying hard enough,” adding, “working from home lets you remove yourself from the constant struggle of trying to meet those standards and focus on who you are.”

Bonus Read: “Hunting Pastime Spikes During Pandemic. Conservationists are Glad. Here’s Why,” (WaPo).

Analysis & Arguments

Katha Pollitt writes on how coronavirus has impacted women (Nation).

R.G. Ratcliffe argues that Texas Governor Greg Abbott’s policies helped create a vaccine stampede (Texas Monthly).

Molly Schreiber writes that the actual death toll from the riot at the Capitol, including its potential role as a superspreader event won’t be known for weeks (New Republic).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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