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Iran Conflict Puts Oil Shock Back on Asian Central Banks’ Radar

  • Renewed Middle East conflict, with U.S. and Israel strikes on Iran, has revived inflation risks for Asia’s central banks.
  • Soaring crude prices, especially if Strait of Hormuz shipments are disrupted, could force Asian central banks to pause rate cuts.
  • Bank Indonesia and Monetary Authority of Singapore are monitoring markets; Singapore’s policy tool aims to dampen imported inflation.

 
China’s ‘Two Sessions’ to Shed Light on What Lies Ahead for Economy

  • The National People’s Congress will approve a five-year economic blueprint to make China a technological superpower.
  • Economists expect China’s central government to target 4.5%-5% gross domestic product growth for 2026.
  • Analysts anticipate macroeconomic policy continuity, with modest budget spending and targeted stimulus.
Thailand’s Central Bank Surprises With Rate Cut

  • Thailand’s central bank cut its policy rate to 1.00% from 1.25% by a 4-2 vote, surprising markets with a second consecutive easing.
  • The Bank of Thailand cited a need to safeguard financial stability and preserve policy space amid uncertainties, noting weak growth has structural issues.
  • Economists warn that coalition negotiations for a new government could delay policy decisions and weigh on Thailand’s economic recovery.
Asian Manufacturers Show Resilience as Demand Rises

  • Asian manufacturing activity improved in February, with strong global demand for goods and AI-related technology.
  • Taiwan’s manufacturing output expanded at its steepest rate in over four-and-a-half years in February; Japan’s factory activity hit a 45-month high.
  • Asia’s export performance and its position as a major winner from the AI boom give cause for optimism for 2026.
South Korea’s Exports Grew 29% Year-on-Year in February

  • South Korea’s preliminary data showed exports rose 29% to $67.45 billion in February, beating forecasts.
  • Semiconductor shipments more than doubled to a record $25.16 billion in February, driving export growth.
  • South Korea’s imports increased 7.5% to $51.94 billion, resulting in a $15.51 billion trade surplus.
 

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