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Asia in Review

No. 47, November/2019, 3

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

The AiR team is presenting you the third issue of 'Asia in Review’ (AiR) in November with the latest important events and developments in geopolitics and international relations as well as constitutional politics, law reform and governance in Asia.

I wish you an informative read.

With the best wishes,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU/

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in South East Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Background Reading

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China/Hong Kong: University campuses become stage of violent protest

(dql) In the latest development of the unrest in Hong Kong, university campuses have become the stage of the city’s anti-government protests. Last week clashes between protesters and police broke out at Chinese University of Hong Kong. Protesters threw bricks and petrol bombs at police who in return used tear gas and rubber bullets. Since the weekend Hong Kong Polytechnic University having been occupied by radical demonstrators. Up to 200 anti-government protesters are barricaded inside the university, surrounded by police. [New York Times] [South China Morning Post] [BBC]

In a move that sparked controversy, PLA soldiers at the weekend appeared in the city for a clean-up operation. It was the first time troops have been seen on the streets since the protests began in June. Pro-democracy activists raised concerns over the move interpreting it as attempt of Beijing to intervene in the city’s affairs. [Hong Kong Free Press]

Amid the ongoing unrest, which is in its sixth month, the city’s government has announced that Hong Kong has entered recession for the first time in a decade after the economy contracted for a second month in a row.

Meanwhile, in a blow to the Hong Kong government a court ruled the ban on face masks, which the government introduced last month after invoking emergency legislation, unconstitutional. [Reuters] [Deutsche Welle]

China: Leaked documents reveal insights into crackdown on Uighurs in Xinjiang

(dql) New York Times reports that it has been leaked more than 400 internal documents of the Chinese Communist Party which reveal insights into the policy and treatment of ethnic minorities in the Xinjiang region where China is facing accusations of a brutal crackdown on the country’s Muslim minority including the detention of more than one million people in internment camps for the purpose of ideological re-education. 

Among others, the documents contain a series of unpublished speeches of President Xi Jinping in which, according to the report, he called for an "all-out 'struggle against terrorism, infiltration, and separatism' using the 'organs of dictatorship,' and showing 'absolutely no mercy'." The leak also includes directives and reports on the surveillance and control of the Xinjiang Uighur population. [New York Times]

Mongolia: Constitution amended to strengthen Prime Minister against President

(dql) Mongolia’s parliament last week approved amendments to the country’s constitution which aim to strengthen the powers of the prime minister by giving the office full authority to appoint and dismiss the cabinet.  

In Mongolia’s political system, power has so far been shared by an elected president and the government appointed by parliament and headed by a prime minister. The president, who usually has come from the opposition party, has been able to veto legislation and initiate his own. The system has made it difficult for governments to implement their policies. [Reuters]

Taiwan’s 2020 presidential election: DPP’s and KMT’s running mates picked

(dql) Two months ahead of the presidential election on Jan. 11, 2020, the candidates of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) last week picked their respective running mates. While President Tsai Ing-wen named former Premier Lai Ching-te, who challenged her in the DPP primary in June, KMT’s presidential hopeful former Han Kuo-yu decided for former Premier Chang San-cheng. [Focus Taiwan 1] [Focus Taiwan 2]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

Sri Lanka: Rajapaksa wins presidential election

(ls) In Sri Lanka’s presidential election on Saturday, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, brother of former president Mahinda Rajapaksa, won 52.3 per cent of the votes, while ruling alliance candidate Sajith Premadasa had 42 per cent at the final count. Gotabaya, who ran for the nationalist Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna party, secured his victory mainly by capturing votes in Sinhala-Buddhist southern provinces, while Premadasa had large majorities in the Tamil-dominated north. [South China Morning Post]

The Rajapaksas thus return to power on the strategically located South Asian island after an interlude of nearly five years. Gotabaya was a key figure during the nearly 10-year presidency of Mahinda, whose two terms were marked by his authoritarian grip. Observers consider that a Gotabaya presidency is likely to become a Rajapaksa family affair and will bring Mahinda, who could not contest the 2019 election due to Sri Lanka’s presidential term limits, back into the limelight. [Nikkei Asian Review]

It is expected that the Sri Lankan government will again tilt towards China, given the Rajapaksa’s past preferences as well as Gotabaya’s strained relationship with the United States, which has often raised his role as defence secretary during the war against the LTTE in 2009 amidst allegations of human rights violations. Sri Lanka’s debt situation will also likely mean a greater role for China, which is the island’s biggest investor and creditor. [The Hindu]

Some analysts predict Gotabaya’s election may escalate ethnic tensions, while others hope he can deliver on his promises on security as Sri Lanka still recovers from the Easter Sunday bombings by Islamic State militants earlier this year, which killed more than 250 people. [Daily FT]

Displaying the ethnic tensions, gunmen fired on buses carrying Muslim voters who were travelling to a neighboring district where they were registered to vote in the north-west of the country. The incident came as police and troops were locked in a standoff in the Tamil-dominated northern peninsula of Jaffna where residents complained about military roadblocks ahead of voting. [Straits Times]

India: BJP not forming government in state of Maharashtra 

(ls) Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will not form the government in the western state of Maharashtra, which is the most well-off Indian state. Though the BJP emerged as the winner of the state election last month, in-fighting between the BJP and the Shiv Sena party has culminated in the former allies parting ways. Shiv Sena is now trying to form a government with support of opposition parties, including the Congress. Observers see in the development the first major political blow to Modi’s ruling party since its landslide victory in the May general election. [Reuters]

The development is remarkable because Shiv Sena is a right-wing Hindu party, and its base has been traditionally anti-Congress. Shiv Sena and the Congress would therefore indeed be strange bedfellows. However, observers note that most Indian parties have proved to be masters of realpolitik in pursuit of power. Unlikely alliances have been forged as quickly as they have fallen apart. [BBC]

Pakistan: Opposition sit-in protests discontinued

(ls) After two weeks of continued anti-government sit-in protests in Islamabad, the opposition Assembly of Islamic Clerics (Jamiat Ulema Islam-Fazl; JUI-F) and its party chief and protest leader Fazl-ur-Rehman declared to temporarily discontinue the protest, announcing, however, new road blockings. The protesters are mainly from the JUI-F party, and a large number of teachers and students from the party's extensive network of religious schools across the country. The main opposition parties, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan People's Party (PPP), have backed the protests, while their participation in the actual demonstration has been limited. [Al Jazeera]

The protests come during a time of economic strain for Pakistan. Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government, like many of its predecessors, was forced to turn to the International Monetary Fund for a $6 billion bailout in July. The opposition says Khan’s government is illegitimate and is being supported by the military. [Reuters]

Bangladesh: 25 charged over murder of student

(ls) Bangladesh police have charged 25 people following the killing of 21-year-old student who was beaten to death by fellow students in October after posting criticism of government policy on social media. Many of the students charged were members of the youth wing of the Awami League, the ruling political party in Bangladesh. News of the death led to protests in the capital. The demonstrations then spread to other cities. [BBC]

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Malaysia: Defeat for Pakatan Harapan in by-elections 

(jk) Following the death of a Member of Parliament, Malaysia recently held its ninth by-election since the general elections in 2018. As opposed to the general election in which the now governing coalition - Pakatan Harapan (PH) - won a major surprise victory against the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition that has ruled the country for six decades, the by-election was a defeat for PH with the BN's candidate re-claiming the seat. 

PM Mahathir admitted that the defeat is a serious sign of his coalition's drifting popularity and the it will have to serve as a wake-up call to regain the support of the population. The UMNO BN chairman went a step further and called the result a manifestation of their "rejection" towards the current government. [Malay Mail]

Philippines: VP Robredo to be on watch for revealing state secrets on “war on drugs” 

(jk/nj) Following Vice President Leni Robredo – one of Duterte’s main critics – accepting a lead position in Duterte’s “war on drugs” against the advice of some close to her [Asia in Review, No. 46, November/2019, 2], she is publicly considering to seek help from the international community, including from the United Nations and International Criminal Court (ICC) if the government won’t intervene in the extrajudicial killings committed by the police. 

In response, President Duterte warned and threatened Robredo to remove her from the post if she reveals any state secrets to foreign individuals or entities concerning the “drug war”. [South China Morning Post]

Myanmar facing charges for Rohingya genocide at ICJ, ICC

(nj) Myanmar faces tremendous legal pressure for its alleged genocide against the country’s Rohingya Muslim minority. On Wednesday, rights groups filed a case in Argentina where former human rights icon Aung San Suu Kyi among other Myanmar high ranking officials have been accused of crimes against the Rohingya minority. 

In addition, the West African nation Gambia submitted a case against Myanmar’s genocidal campaign at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the UN’s highest court. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has approved to investigate all allegations of crimes against humanity during Myanmar’s 2017 military crackdown against the Muslim minority. [Aljazeera]

Myanmar is facing several charges including mass rapes, killings and intended acts to destroy the Rohingya group in whole or in part. Hopes are that the court’s ruling could help stop the genocidal campaign against Rohingya in Myanmar. [South China Morning Post]

19 Indonesian Airports increasing security efforts after suicide bombing at police HQ

(nl/jk) The area outside the police headquarters in the Indonesian city of Medan in North Sumatra was hit by a suspected suicide bombing on Wednesday in which the perpetrator- a 24-year old student- died and some police officers were injured. The motive for the attack wasn’t immediately clear, but a link has been made to Islamic sympathizers who have been targeting the police in several of their attacks in recent years and were involved in the recent stabbing of Indonesia’s former security minister and army general. [Reuters]

In response to the suicide bombing, security measures in particular at airports are stepped-up. [The Jakarta Post]

Vietnam: 12-year jail term handed to Australian retiree in Vietnam for “terrorist activities against the state” 

(jk) A 70-year old Vietnamese-Australian retiree was convicted over his membership of the Viet Tan political party, which is critical of the Vietnamese government. It is proscribed as a terrorist organisation in Vietnam since 2016. According to the police statement he gave US$400 to a second party to fund the operations of Viet Tan. [South China Morning Post]

Cambodia: PM says opposition leader Kem Sokha will face treason trial

(jk) Kem Sokha, one of the co-founders of the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), which was dissolved last year, has recently been freed from house arrest and rumours emerged that he will soon be pardoned by the king regarding his charges of plotting to overthrow the government. The court closed the investigation into his case last week, but Hun Sen, the PM,  has stressed this week that Sokha would still face trial. He is banned from leaving Cambodia as well as from taking part in politics inside the country. [Channel News Asia]

Thailand: Constitutional Court removes MP status of Pheua Thai Party MP over murder case

(jk) The Constitutional Court removed the MP status of a  Pheua Thai Party MP last week, following his conviction for murder earlier this year. The removal of the MP will lead to another by-election. The former MP was found guilty and sentenced to death by the Khon Kaen Criminal Court last  September over masterminding the murder of a local administrative official. [Bangkok Post]

Thailand: Future Forward Party plans bill seeking to end military conscription 

(jk) The Future Forward Party (FFP) plans a bill seeking to move to a process of recruitment of volunteers rather than military conscription as part of their vow to reform the military in Thailand. The armed forces have long defended conscription, and still do, insisting it is "necessary for national security". [Bangkok Post]

FF leader Thanathorn speaks in an interview with [Asia Times] about this, the pro-democracy movement and his personal future in politics with the one of many legal cases against him being decided this week that may well lead to the end of his status as an MP. 

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China-USA clash would have ‘catastrophic outcomes’: Kissinger

(dql) Amid ongoing trade negotiations between China and the USA, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, speaking last week at an event of the National Committee on US China Relations, warned of “catastrophic outcomes” which could be “worse than world wars”, if Beijing and Washington fail to settle their differences and hostilities would become “inevitable”.

Kissinger, key figure of the US-Chinese rapprochement under Nixon in the early 1970s, however, expressed confidence that both sides would resolve the trade dispute in a positively way. [The National] [South China Morning Post]

Meanwhile, during his meeting with US Secretary of Defense Esper on Monday after the China-ASEAN Defense Ministers' Informal Meeting on Sunday, Chinese Defense Minister Wei reasserted that China will never tolerate any move by separatists to achieve "Taiwan independence" and urged the USA to “handle the Taiwan question in a discreet and appropriate manner and not bring new unstable elements into the Taiwan Straits” as well as to stop muscle flexing in the South China Sea in order to avoid provoking tensions. [Time]

Cross-Strait relations: Taiwan takes on Huawei smartphones over naming it part of China

(dql) In a move further deepening already heightened tensions in Cross-Strait relations Taiwan’s National Communications Commission has confirmed an order stopping companies from selling models of Huawei smartphones displaying “Taiwan, China” for time zones and contacts. [Bloomberg]

China in Africa: 2 billion USD bauxite deal with Ghana set to kick off

(dql) The Ghanian government has announced that it is going ahead with a 2 billion USD deal with China to obtain infrastructure improvements in return for bauxite ore after Beijing has released a first tranche of funds worth 649 million USD under the deal with Sinohydro, a state-owned hydropower engineering and construction company. The agreement comes along with a 42.7 million USD grant and a 35.7 million USD debt relief to boost Ghana’s infrastructure development. [Aluminium Insider]

Ghana's major exports to China include crude oil, aluminium ore, manganese ore and rough wood worth 2.4 billion USD a year. In 2018 the West African country joined the Belt and Road Initiative. [South China Morning Post]

For an account of Russia’s “re-awakening” interest in Africa and the ensuing competition with China and the USA in this area see [Brookings].

China angered over second rights prize for government-critical Chinese within weeks

(dql) China has threatened Sweden with consequences after the Swedish section of PEN International awarded Gui Minhai, a Chinese-born Swedish citizen currently detained in China, the Tucholsky prize, a freedom of speech prize annually awarded to a persecuted or exiled writer. [New Europe]

The Chinese embassy in Stockholm slammed the decision to award Gui, known for having printed and sold books critical of the Chinese government, as motivated by “ulterior political agenda and consistent biases and hostility against China”. [The Guardian]

Earlier last month, the European Parliament awarded the 2019 freedom of thought Sakharov Prize to Uighur economist Ilham Tohti, a fierce critic of China’s treatment of the Uighur people. Tohti was arrested and sentenced to life in prison in 2014. [AiR No. 44, October/2019, 5]

Japan-South Korea relations: No common ground on renewal of intelligence sharing pact

(dql) No progress was made when the defense ministers of Japan and South Korea met on Sunday for talks, in a latest attempt to prevent the expiration of the General Security of Military Information Agreement this week.

Seoul had announced and repeated on several occasions not to renew the intelligence sharing pact unless Japan retracts trade measure directed against South Korea.

According to a Japanese official, both sides, however, persisted on their respective viewpoints during the talks: while Seoul insisted on Tokyo lifting its trade restrictions on the export of some high-tech products to South Korea as pre-condition for the renewal of the pact, Tokyo refused to meet this demand arguing that South Korea has failed to prevent materials that can be used for weapon programs from being diverted to North Korea. [Korea Herald]

South Korea-USA relations: Third round of cost sharing talks ends inconclusive

(dql) Negotiations between the USA and South Korea on dividing the cost for maintaining US troops on the Korean peninsula ended abruptly on Tuesday, without yielding any results.

The talks were in their third round and held amid renewed tensions between the allies after President Donald Trump increased the price tag for US forces roughly 400% for 2020, from 924 million USD which Seoul agreed to pay for 2019 up to almost 5 bilion USD next year. [Korea Herald]

North Korean hacking attack on Indian nuclear facility

(ls) A cyberattack on an Indian nuclear power plant that was discovered in September appears to have been launched from North Korea as evidence seems to indicate. The incident shows an upgrade of North Korea’s cyberattack capabilities, which used to be deployed mostly against civilian targets. Now, North Korean hackers are also tasked with either disrupting atomic plants or stealing atomic technologies. [Asia Times]

The nuclear power plant’s employees are suspected to have opened phishing emails from North Korean spammers, accidentally installing malware on their computers, which then spread across the system. According to an investigative report, the attackers had acquired high-level access and struck “extremely mission-critical targets.” There are also rumors that a similar cyberattack affected India’s high-profile Moon mission Chandrayaan last month. The project collapsed after it lost contact with the spacecraft. [Asian Sentinel]

U.S.-Indian joint navy drill

(ls) The U.S. and India have been conducting a Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) exercise code-named ‘TIGER TRIUMPH’ from Nov 13-21. It aims to develop the interoperability for conducting HADR operations. The announcement for this drill was made by U.S. President Donald Trump at the `Howdy, Modi’ event in Texas recently. Indian Armed forces conduct a similar exercise with Russia. [Financial Express]

Nepal rejects Indian and Chinese maps that apparently appropriate Nepalese territory

(ls) India has released a new official political map at the beginning of November, which has been stirring criticism in Nepal recently, including from Nepal’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The updated map of India includes a major Nepali claim, an area known as Kalapani. However, this is not an entirely new development as India’s national mapping authority has been including the Kalapani and Navidhang areas in its maps since 1905, disregarding Nepal’s territorial sovereignty and a 1816 treaty between Nepal and the then East India Company. [The Diplomat]

In addition, protesters also took to the streets of Kathmandu after a recent government report indicated that China had encroached on Nepalese land. According to the document released by Nepal’s Survey Department, four districts sharing a border with China – Sankhuwasabha, Rasuwa, Sindhupalchowk and Humla – were seen losing territories as Beijing expanded its road projects. [South China Morning Post]

The incidents vividly illustrate Nepal’s sandwiched position between India and China, which are, however, both seeking to deepen ties.

EU to decide on continuation of Trade Preferences for Cambodia early next year

(jk) The European Union has completed a preliminary report on the temporary suspension of trade preferences to Cambodia and forwarded it to the government.  The EU remains concerned about the human rights situation in Cambodia, which now has one month to respond to the report. The final decision will be made in February next year. [European Commission]

The decision to initiate the procedure to temporarily withdraw tariff preferences granted under the Everything But Arms (EBA) arrangement over concerns related to serious human and labour rights violations was made in February this year. The EU is Cambodia's largest trading partner, accounting for about 45% of Cambodian exports in 2018, with almost all exports falling under the EBA agreement. 

Thailand and US sign "Joint Vision Statement 2020" on defense 

(jk) Thailand and the US signed a joint vision statement on defence ahead of the ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting (ADMM) and related meetings this week with US Secretary of Defence Mark Esper, who is in Bangkok for the ADM plus meetings. The statement, according to Esper "reaffirms our mutual commitment to the U.S.-Thai Alliance, and to a future of even deeper cooperation. [It] demonstrates our determination as an alliance to be more active together in the region to advance our mutual security interests. [The region] remains the United States’ number one priority region." [US Embassy Thailand]

The Thai government also signed memoranda of understanding on defence cooperation with Japan and China, with the Chinese MoU including intelligence liaison and news and information sharing. [Bangkok Post]

Background Reading

Four immediate reforms to strengthen the Myanmar National Human Rights Commission 

(jk) The International Commission of Jurists has published a legal briefing note which outlines four immediate reforms that if implemented, would enhance the Myanmar Human Rights Commission's abilities to protect human rights.  The commission that was established eight years ago has remained largely ineffective as its independence from both the government and in particular the military is highly questionable. [ICJ]

Bougainville’s Quest for Independence 

(jk) A special report on the upcoming referendum this week in Bougainville - if it passes, Bougainville might become the next new nation in the world, breaking away from Papua New Guinea. [Australian Foreign Affairs] 

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