CPG's Asia in Review, 11 August 2020

Grasp the pattern, read the trend

Asia in Review

No. 32, August/2020, 2

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

Welcome to your weekly brief on the latest developments and trends in constitutional politics and international relations in Asia for which I wish you an enjoyable read!

With best regards,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

Law and Politics in East Asia
Law and Politics in South Asia
Law and Politics in Southeast Asia
International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia
Upcoming Online Events

Law and Politics in East Asia

China/Hong Kong: High profile arrests under new national security law

(dql) Prominent pro-democracy activists have been arrested over charges of inciting secession and collusion with foreign forces, a latest sign of the Hong Kong government’s determination to robustly enforce the new national security law for the city imposed by Beijing at the end of June.

Among the ten arrested are business tycoon Jimmy Lai, owner of the regime-critical newspaper Apple Daily and a vocal supporter of anti-government protests, and Agnes Chow, a leading figure in the new generation of protesters and former founder of the pro-democracy party Demosisto which disbanded in the face of the new security law. Apple Daily office was raided by the police shortly Lai was arrested.

The arrests have further raised concerns about a possible crackdown on freedom of press and political dissent in the former British colony under the new legislation. [Washington Post] [Hong Kong Free Press]

In a related move signaling Beijing’s tightened grip on Hong Kong, it has demanded that the Hong Kong government widen the scope of the city’s laws pertaining the offence of disrespecting the Chinese flag. Beijing, too, is set to reform the respective laws in China. Under the new law, displaying the national flag upside down and other ways of diminishing its dignity would be banned. Members of the public would have to salute to the flag while being prohibited from discarding the flags casually after attending public events. [South China Morning Post]

China: Investment for transport infrastructure of technology hub approved

(dql) China is set to invest nearly 67.9 billion USD for a major transport and connectivity infrastructure project in the Greater Bay Area, building 775 km (480 miles) of intercity railway and five transport hubs to link Hong Kong, Macau and nine cities in the province of Guangdong. The project aims to create an integrated mega economic and technology hub which is capable to compete with San Francisco’s Silicon Valley.

Japan: Prime Minister Abe under pressure over risks of second Coronavirus wave

(dql) As Japan, so far praised for it successful control of the pandemic, faces surging numbers in Covid-19 infections, with an increase from 40.000 to 50.000 within the past week, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is confronted with a record low approval rating of 30% while 61% of the population voice dissatisfaction with his cabinet’s pandemic handling. [Japan Times]

Abe, however, declared that there was no need for a declaration for a second state of emergency defying calls for such a move and trying to walk on a thin line between preventing the spread of the virus and preventing the country’s economy, which is officially already in recession, from getting worse. [Kyodo News] [The Guardian]

South Korea: President’s chief of staff and senior secretaries offer resignation

(dql) In a move to prevent further damage to the administration of President Moon Jae-in, the president’s Chief of Staff and all five senior aides have submitted their resignation offer last week. Moon’s administration has come under pressure after it was revealed that senior members of his office are owner of more than one house compromising the government’s current legislative attempts to rein in speculative home buying to counter rising property prices in Seoul.

In Seoul and the nearby capital area, where 50% of the over 50 million population lives, housing prices, rents and down payments, have kept increasing, with median apartment prices in Seoul going up more than 50% since the Moon assume office in May 2017. In the eight years before he took office house prices rose only 24%.

Resulting mainly from public discontent with the surging housing prices, Moon’s approval ratings dropped to currently 44.5% from this year’s peak of 63.7% in late April when his ruling party, the Democratic Party (DP), won the absolute majority in the legislative election on the ticket of Moon’s successful handling of the pandemic. [Korea Times] [South China Morning Post] [AiR No. 16, April/2020, 3]

In an earlier move, the ruling DP on the basis of its absolute majority in the National Assembly pushed through bills centering at imposing heavier taxes on housing transactions and the possession of homes, as well as restricting the rights of landlords. [Yonhap]

Law and Politics in South Asia

Nepal’s ruling Communist Party edges further toward a split

(lm) Nepal’s Communist Party (NCP) – result of a post-election unification of the Marxist-Leninist and the Maoist communist party in 2018 and commanding almost a two-thirds majority – still struggles with a factional feud between its two chairmen, Nepal’s Prime Minister Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal, frequently called ‘Prachanda’. The latter insists on a one-man-one-post principle demanding that Oli either resigns as Prime Minister or co-leader of the party. After at least ten meetings between the hostile leaders, Prachanda told the party to prepare for the “worst” claiming that the majority of the Central Working Committee supported his faction while a new communist party – the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist–Leninist – had been registered at the Election Commission at the behest of PM Oli. [Hindustan Times]

To prevent a split, on Monday, sixty-three NCP lawmakers led by party vice-chair Bamdev Gautam have started a signature campaign to bridge the rift between the two rival leaders. [The Himalayan Times] After a Standing Committee meeting on July 28 did not bring a solution, success of the campaign might be doubted though.

Pakistan: Anti-graft court formally indicts ex-president Zardari

(lm) Pakistan's accountability court on Monday indicted former President Asif Ali Zardari over a money laundering case. Earlier last week, the court had dismissed the acquittal plea of Mr. Zardari and decided to indict him on August 10. The court had also dismissed another application of Mr. Zardari that challenged the accountability court’s jurisdiction and sought transfer of the case to a banking court. Investigators of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) say during his tenure as the president, Mr. Zardari influenced relevant authorities to get loans released to his front companies – a charge he denies, saying he is being politically victimized by Prime Minister Imran Khan's government. [The Nation] [DAWN] [The Straits Times]

Sri Lanka: Mahinda Rajapaksa sworn in as new Prime Minister

(cm/lm) On Sunday, Mahinda Rajapaksa, older brother of Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, was sworn in as the country's new Prime Minister, after his party together with its allies secured a two-thirds majority in the recently concluded parliamentary election.

Last week, the brothers' Sri Lanka People's Freedom Alliance (SLPFA), of which their Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) is a majority stakeholder, and its allies secured more than 150 seats in the 225-member house. Gotabaya Rajapaksa, was elected as president in a similar landslide victory in November, campaigning on a platform aimed at stoking ethnic Sinhala nationalism, promising strong security policies and centralized leadership.[AiR No. 47, November/2019, 3] [Al Jazeera 1]

The worst setback was suffered by the United National Party (UNP), which had 106 seats in the outgoing parliament, but entered the polls on the back of years of mis-governance and, more recently, a split into two separate parties ahead of the polls. In February, the UNP's presidential candidate in the November presidential election, Sajith Premadasa, formed the United People's Force (UPF), breaking away from the UNP and taking the majority of the party's members of Parliament with him. Both parties, however, fared poorly at Wednesday's poll, with the UPF coming in second with 54 seats, and the UNP managing to secure just one seat. Even the minority Tamil and Muslim parties, traditionally strong in the north and the east, conceded space either for the SLPP or its allies. [South China Morning Post] [Al Jazeera 2]

Having secured sufficient numbers to deliver constitutional changes, the Rajapaksa brothers may now increase executive authority, reversing the 2015 19th constitutional amendment, which brought about a more even distribution of power between the PM and the president to prevent a centralization of power. It is also expected that independent commissions watching over elections, police and public services might be weakened as well. A coming amendment could also increase the presidency’s two-year limit and allow Mahinda to continue his candidacy in the next election. Moreover, the brothers have also planned to extend their MPs to other Rajapaksa family members, such as the PM’s sons. Furthermore, after its election victory, the SLPP is less inclined to make compromises with other parties in a polity in which religious and ethnic minorities are worrying about the Rajapaksa’s policies. [BBC News] [Time]

Against the background of the election results, Human Rights Watch and the International Truth and Justice Project (ITJP) see heightened fears “that the government will exacerbate policies that are hostile to ethnic and religious minorities and further repress those seeking justice for abuses committed during the country’s 26-year civil war”. The rights activists also voiced their concern about the “inner circle” that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has appointed for the Presidential Task Force [see AiR No. 29, July/2020, 3]. According to the international NGOs, the majority of the appointees are either bureaucrats, have committed war crimes or contributed to Sri Lanka’s corruption. In the ITJP’s recent infographic, it depicts six military officers who have been given powerful positions, such as Chief of Defense Staff or Commander of the Army. The Director of ITJP has stated that the military officers “will have to answer in a court one day for their complicity in the alleged killings of tens of thousands of their citizens in both 1989 and 2009, as well as alleged corruption”. [Human Rights Watch] [ITJP]

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia

Cambodian public order bill elicits online backlash

(jn) A proposed law in Cambodia that would give the police the authority to fine people for dressing inappropriately [AiR No. 31, August/2020, 1] continues to raise concerns about undue infringement of personal liberties and reinforcing a culture of impunity around sexual violence. The bill has provoked outrage on the internet, especially among women, with one woman launching an online petition that garnered thousands of signatures while others woman protested the bill by posting pictures of themselves in swimwear and skimpy outfits. [South China Morning Post] [Vice]

Indonesia imposes VAT on foreign internet companies

(ls) Ten foreign digital companies will be required to collect a 10 percent value added tax (VAT) from Indonesian consumers starting in September. Besides Amazon, Google, Netflix and Spotify, which had been covered by an earlier announcement already, the new list also includes Apple, Facebook and TikTok. The move is part of the government’s effort to create a level playing field for local and foreign businesses operating in Indonesia. Whether also corporate income tax can be collected domestically is still subject to a global debate on how to tax the transnational commercial activity of internet companies. [Jakarta Post] [Reuters]

Malaysia: Mahathir to form a new party

(cm/ls) Former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad announced on Friday to form a new political party that is neither aligned with Perikatan Nasional, which is the coalition that supports current Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, nor with Pakatan Harapan (PH), the former government coalition that was formed after the 2018 general election and that he headed. Mahathir said he would be the chairman of the new party, which does not yet have a name, while his son would be the president. [Channel News Asia]

Though Mahatir already mulled this move a few weeks back, it still caused some upheaval as he had recently voiced his support for Warisan leader – and former PH coalition partner in Sabah – Shafie Apdal as prime ministerial candidate. Now, it appears likely that Mahatir himself might be a candidate as well.

In late February, Mahathir resigned from his post as Prime Minister after political horse-trading resulted in the collapse of the PH coalition. Mahatir was later excluded from the Malaysian United Indigenous Party (Bersatu), along with four other MPs who are now likely to join the new party as well. Bersatu’s decision to eject them was confirmed by the Kuala Lumpur High Court on Friday, as well. [Nikkei Asian Review]

Three of Bersatu's supreme council members and a Selangor assemblyman already announced to join Mahatir’s new party, which could eventually also pose a threat to Prime Minster Muhyiddin’s majority in parliament. Several Bersatu divisions in Selangor have been dissolved already, and more lawmakers might leave Bersatu in Muhyiddin's own state of Johor. Thus, Malaysian politics remains highly volatile both on the federal and the state level with no concrete plans for elections in sight. [Straits Times]

Malaysia: Uncertainty surrounding Sabah’s snap election

(cm) Following last week’s collapse of Sabah’s state government and the announcement of snap elections [AiR No. 31, August/2020, 1], uncertainty about the impact of Covid-19 on the election and the integrity of postal votes from outside of Sabah and overseas have surfaced. There are approximately 250,000 Sabah voters residing in peninsular Malaysia. Human rights activists made an online petition to allow Sabahans to vote via post. In the past two general elections, there has been evidence of postal ballots arriving after the polling day.

The Election Commission plans to decide on the election date on 17 August. The state of Sabah is currently led by the Sabah Heritage Party (Warisan) backed by Pakatan Harapan. After several members of the state parliament had switched parties in recent weeks, Chief Minister Shafie Apdal, who is also the founder and leader Warisan, said that any further party switches during the state election would result in voters losing their trust. [South China Morning Post] [Malay Mail 1]

Meanwhile, Pakatan Harapan (PH) asked those state governments that are still in PH hands - the state governments of Negeri Sembilan, Penang and Selangor - to not follow suit if Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin were to dissolve the Federal Parliament. The state government of Penang concurred in a statement that said it would be too soon to conduct snap elections. [Malay Mail 2]

Malaysia: TV stations searched by the police

(ls) In another incident illustrating the decreasing media freedom in Malaysia [AiR, No. 28, July/2020, 2], police raided the office of Al Jazeera and two local TV stations last week. Computers were seized as part of an investigation into a documentary on undocumented migrants. Officials had complained that the documentary was inaccurate and biased. The charges include sedition, defamation and violating the Communications and Multimedia Act. The Malaysian Police said the investigations were conducted in accordance with the law. [Time] [Al Jazeera]

Myanmar: Aung San Suu Kyi officially files for November election amid ongoing violence

(jn) State Counsellor and de facto head of government Aung San Suu Kyi has submitted her candidacy papers to run for reelection in her constituency in Yangon confirming she is seeking a second term in parliament and at the helm of the national government for another five years. It is widely expected that her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), will emerge victorious from the November 8 elections and will have the mandate to form a new government.

This time around, however, she faces international and – again and more important for the electoral dynamics – domestic criticism of her leadership. Correspondingly, newly founded parties will compete with the NLD [see AiR No. 30, July/2020, 4]. One of many complicating factors concerns erroneous voter rolls that election officials are scrambling to fix ahead of the general election.

Moreover, the election commission of the government has already said that elections in war-stricken Rakhine state will be postponed, depending on a safety assessment by military-controlled ministries – a move that has already triggered a backlash in the concerned region. A peace conference next week on the further implementation of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) between the government and the many ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) from around the country could yield some indications how the security situation and the stagnating peace process will look like in November and beyond.

The fact that the national government has excluded the insurgent Arakan Army (AA) from Rakhine state, however, might turn out to be an omen for unabated escalation, at least in Rakhine. The AA has been fighting for 20 months against government forces in a struggle for greater autonomy, leaving more than 270 civilians dead and nearly 200.000 forcibly displaced since 2018. In March, the government had declared the AA an illegal association and terrorist organization. Groups allied with the AA have already declared they would side with the AA and not attend the peace conference unless the government invited AA. Confirmations of participation of several other EAOs that are not signatories of the NCA are still pending as well. [Reuters] [The Irrawaddy] [Radio Free Asia 1] [Radio Free Asia 2]

As another sign of ongoing violence in Myanmar’s western regions, rebel groups ambushed and killed three soldiers of an Indian paramilitary unit in the Indian Chandel district by the end of July. Several Myanmar-based separatist groups operate from across the border to attack Indian troops, sometimes also engaging Myanmar forces. [The Diplomat]

Myanmar: Facebook not providing information to U.N. investigative body

(ls) The head of the Independent Investigative Mechanism on Myanmar (IIMM), an investigative body set up by the U.N. Human Rights Council, said that Facebook has not yet released evidence related to crimes committed against the Rohingya Muslim minority by Myanmar’s military, despite expressing its intention to work with investigators. U.N investigators had previously found that Facebook had played a major role in spreading hate speech that fueled violence. Since the incidents, Facebook has deleted accounts linked to the military including senior army officials and preserved the data. [Reuters]

Thailand: Student protests gain momentum

(ls) The student protests in Thailand that restarted some weeks ago after months of corona-related quietness are gaining momentum as demonstrations attract rising numbers of participants. On Monday, about three to four thousand joined an event at Thammasat University’s Rangsit campus. Earlier on the same day, dozens of government supporters rallied in front of Parliament House. [Reuters]

The event at Thammasat sparked controversy due to references by some speakers to the powers of the Thai monarchy. The head of the senate committee on the protection of the royal institution said the statements were hurtful to tens of millions of Thai people. Prime Minister General (ret.) Chan-o-cha and other ministers also criticized the event. The university’s vice rector apologized for the course the event had taken. [Bangkok Post 1] [The Thaiger]

Over the weekend, hundreds of people joined a flash mob in Bangkok after a prominent civil rights lawyer, who had called for reforms of the monarchy, and a student activist were arrested for sedition, breaching the emergency decree and other charges, and then released again on bail. [Bangkok Post 2] [Khaosod English]

With apparent reference to monarchy-related remarks of protesters, army chief General Apirat Kongsompongon told cadets during a visit to a military academy that the "hatred of the nation" plaguing the country was a bigger threat than the coronavirus. “We cannot cure people who hate their nation.” [ASEAN Post]

In response to the students’ demands to change the constitution, Prime Minister Chan-o-cha said the government would present a proposal in the next parliamentary session. He also stated that the government would hold forums for “new-generation people” to voice opinions on what they want Thailand's future to be like. The Free Youth group and the Student Union of Thailand demand the government to dissolve parliament, stop using oppressive laws against opponents and rewrite the constitution. [Bangkok Post 3]

Thai Court ruling allows class action suit brought by Cambodian farmers

(jn) The Bangkok South Civil Court ruled on July 31 that about 3000 Cambodian people who had allegedly been forcibly displaced by a land grab for purposes of agricultural exploration could proceed with their suit against the Thai company Mitr Phol. The plaintiffs seek compensation against the world’s fourth largest sugar producer whose subsidiaries they say had seized their land and bulldozed or burned down their homes twelve years ago in an effort to make way for sugar plantations in the Cambodian province of Oddar Meanchey.

In 2008 and 2009, the Cambodian government had approved the clearance of the territory that was assigned to future sugar plantations and part of a government plan to generate economic growth with the help of domestic and regional investors. After the affected villagers staged protests and the ongoing dispute could not be resolved, the Cambodian government declared a moratorium for new concessions, and promised to review those already granted. Mitr Phol eventually withdrew from Cambodia in 2015.

Progress of the suit turned out to be difficult at first, when a lower court dismissed it due to the plaintiffs’ lacking Thai language skills and the onerous communication with them in rural Cambodia. A pre-hearing is now scheduled for October, with the whole trial expected to last up to two years.

Human rights groups commended the ruling and interpreted it as a sign that transnational corporations in the region could not trust anymore in being shielded from accountability by national boundaries. It was also hailed as a remarkable ruling in that Thai courts are usually not expected to rule against their “own” Thai corporations. NGOs who had decried the forced displacement also criticized that Cambodian authorities had only partially and insufficiently compensated the villagers who often had to move to other areas or even became illegal migrant workers.

Mitr Phol said in a statement that it was committed to social responsibility and that in this case it had relied on the Cambodian government’s assurances that the land concessions were legal. It denied any human rights violations on its part. [South China Morning Post] [The Diplomat]

Vietnam still racing to contain coronavirus resurgence

(jn) With almost 850 cases of Covid-19 and 15 deaths as of Monday, Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc warned that the risk of widespread Covid-19 infections was very high and that further efforts of the government and society were necessary to contain the spread. Fast and accurate testing would be key to prevent a full-blown second wave from fully hitting the country. A new makeshift hospital in a Danang stadium was supposed to be operational as of Saturday as an overflow capacity that could provide for up to 1000 patients if local hospitals were to be overwhelmed [Vietnamese Ministry of Health] [Channel News Asia] [The New York Times] [The Straits Times]

The country has also continued its crackdown on illegal border crossings, mostly by Chinese citizens who are reportedly skirting official checkpoints in their search for work in Vietnam. [South China Morning Post] [Nikkei Asian Review]

In a new outbreak, the coronavirus had resurfaced in the city of Danang which lead the government to reinstate restrictions and social distancing measures in the affected places [AiR No. 31, August/2020, 1]. Swift and sweeping measures taken in the first quarter of the year had first lead to a successful containment and control of the virus [AiR No. 17, April/2020, 4].

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China-USA relations: Trump threats to ban WeChat in the US

(dql) Last week, US President Trump signed an executive order barring people and companies in the U.S. from engaging in “any transaction” with WeChat, the most popular social-network app in China, from 20 September on, unless Tencent, WeChat's owner, will sell the app by mid-September. Trump cited concerns for US national security for the move, accusing WeChat of gathering "vast swathes" of user data, threatening US citizens’ personal and proprietary information. In earlier move, Trump issued a similar order with regards to TikTok, a popular Chinese video-sharing social networking service owned by a Beijing-based Internet technology company. [BBC] [AiR No. 31, August/2020, 1]

While the order’s impact on Tencent’s business will be insignificant, it is the latest in a string of recent measures in Washington’s aggressive campaign against Chinese technology firms.

Trump’s ‘TikTok’ and ‘WeChat’ orders were echoed by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo as he revealed that Washington is expanding its efforts to achieve a “clean network” in which the US government will seek to remove Chinese companies from app stores, apps, cloud services, mobile carrier networks and undersea internet cables. [CNN]

China-USA relations: Washington imposes sanctions against top Chinese officials over Hong Kong

(dql) Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam and the city’s incumbent and former police chiefs are among 11 Chinese high officials targeted by sanctions imposed last week by the USA as part of its hardening stance against China over Hong Kong. Washington cites their role in curtailing freedoms in the former British colony as reason for the sanctions which cover freezing their assets on US soil and prohibiting Americans for doing business with them. [Reuters]

China was quick to retaliate with similar sanctions against 11 American nationals including Senators Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton and Pat Toomey – all of them vocal sponsors and supporters of US anti-China legislation and sanctions – as well as Human Rights Watch Executive Director Kenneth Roth. [Bloomberg]

In another press freedom-related development, the Foreign Correspondents’ Club Hong Kong has warned that foreign journalists are becoming targets in the escalating Sino-US tensions citing foreign journalists in Hong Kong facing unusually lengthy visa issuance delays. [Foreign Correspondents’ Club Hong Kong]

The warning comes amid a diplomatic spat between Beijing and Washington over Chinese journalists and media outlets operating in the USA and vice versa. In February, the US government declared that five mainland Chinese media outlets were agencies controlled by Beijing, in response to which Beijing expelled three reporters from The Wall Street Journal after the newspaper ran an opinion piece titled “China is the real sick man of Asia”. In March the US State Department restricted the number of Chinese employees of the five outlets permitted in the US to 100, from 160. Weeks later Beijing retaliated with revoking press credentials for American journalists from The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post. [AiR No. 8, February/2020, 4] [AiR No. 12, March/2020, 4]

China-USA relations: Defense Ministers agree to keep communication channels open

(dql) Amid high running tensions between China and the USA, Chinese Foreign Minister Wei Fenghe and his US counterpart Mark Esper held a phone talk last week. While the talk did not narrow down any differences as both Ministers reiterated their respective country’s criticisms and demands related to – among others – Covid-19 transparency, the South China Sea and Hong Kong, both sides also agreed on “maintaining open channels of communication and developing the systems necessary for crisis communications and risk reduction.” [US Dept. of Defense] [Xinhua]

US Secretary of Health visits Taiwan

(ef) US Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar visited Taiwan on Monday to commend Taiwan’s response to the coronavirus as well as its democracy. The visit marks the highest-level visit by an American official since 1979 – the year the US cut off official ties with Taiwan – reflecting a first peak in soaring relations between Washington and Taipei over the past year.

Both sides hailed the meeting. While President Tsai Ing-wen remarked that the visit came to show that the US-Taiwanese relationship had never been better and that it will progressively improve, Azar stated that his visit was to reaffirm “Taiwan as long partner and friend of the US.” Against the background of President Trump’s announcement to withdraw from the Word Health Organization, Azar reassured that Washington would include Taiwan in its efforts to find “appropriate vehicles for continuing to support on a multilateral and bilateral basis global public health on the order that the U.S. has done in the past.”

The visit is deemed to worsen already frosty relations between the US and China which sent two fighter jets towards the island shortly before the talks, a move that has been sharply criticized by the Taiwanese Presidential Office. Furthermore, China lodged a formal complaint with the Oval Office vowing to take countermeasures. [New York Times ($)] [BBC] [South China Morning Post] [Focus Taiwan 1] [Focus Taiwan 3]

During the visit, the first memorandum of understanding on health cooperation between the US and Taiwan was signed. The memorandum formalizes the existing decades-long cooperation between the US and the Taiwanese health ministry and focuses on deepening collaboration in a number of areas ranging from “global health security, investigation and control of infectious disease, research, prevention and treatment of chronic disease, and the development of drugs and vaccines.” It also involves programs for personnel exchanges, training and bilateral visits, workshops and conferences. [Focus Taiwan 3]

China-Japan relations: Tokyo ready to respond to Beijing’s possible fishing boat intrusion

(dql) Sino-Japanese tensions are flaring up after Japan warned its military to be prepared for Chinese intrusions of its territorial waters around the disputed islands – Senkaku islands in Japanese, Diaoyu islands in Chinese – in the East China Sea. The warning comes in response to reports of Beijing announcing that its ban on Chinese fishing boats operating in the disputed waters will expire this Sunday. The announcement was reinforced by Beijing stressing that Japan has no right to demand the fishing boats stop their activities alluding to its own claims of sovereignty over these waters and islands. [Newsweek] [South China Morning Post]

In a show of force, Chinese coastguard vessels have been constantly entering the disputed waters over the past one and half year. Until July, Chinese government ships were present in the area for a record of 111 consecutive days before leaving. [AiR No. 30, July/2020, 4]

For insights into Japan’s legal and administrative efforts to strengthen protection of its territorial integrity against “China’s gray zone tactics” in the East China Sea in historical perspective, see James Kraska at [The Diplomat].

China-Mongolia relations: Ulaanbaatar reassures Taiwan, Hong Kong and Xinjiang are Chinese domestic affairs

(dql) At the Fifth China-Mongolia Strategic Dialogue Between Foreign Ministries held last week, both sides agreed to deepen cooperation in a number of areas including political and diplomatic affairs, economy and trade as well as cultural and people-to-people exchange. The Mongolian Deputy Foreign Minister reassured that “Taiwan, Hong Kong and Xizang [sic] affairs are purely China's internal affairs.” [Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China]

China-Tajikistan relations: Beijing to grasp Pamir region?

(dql) A recent article, published in the state-controlled Chinese media and demanding Tajikistan’s Pamir mountain range – a part of the Western Himalaya bordering in the country’s East to China – to be ceded to China has prompted concerns in Tajikistan (but also in Russia which views Tajikistan as its geopolitical backyard) over China’s interests and territorial aspirations in this region.

In 2010 China and Tajikistan signed an agreement on a new border that required Dusbande to hand over to Beijing more than 1.100 square kilometers of territory in the Pamir region, equaling more than 5% of the claimed territory. Since then, Beijing has constantly deepened its foothold in the country, by obtaining significant shares of the small mountainous country’s raw materials sector in return for security assistance provided to Dusbande. This year, Beijing established an airport close the border to Tajikistan, announcing further airports to follow in this region. China, furthermore, helped build military infrastructure and a training base for Tajikistani soldiers in the Pamir territories. [EurAsian Times] [The Jamestown Foundation: China Brief]

Inter-Korean relations: Seoul blames Pyongyang for breach of communications agreement

(dql) Reflecting the current impasse in inter-Korean relations, South Korea has criticized the North Pyongyang for breaking a communications agreement by not having informed Seoul in advance about its recent release of a dam water located near the Military Demarcation Line. The agreement was concluded in 2009 following the deaths of six people after the North discharged water without informing the South in advance. [KBS] [Korea Times]

Pyongyang’s move is the latest in a string of events demonstrating rapidly souring relations between the two Korea’s following the hopeful conclusion of the Panmunjom Declaration in April 2018 in which both sides vowed to work towards a final peace to the Korean conflict within a year and the complete denuclearization of Korea. A striking recent example for the failure of this peace process is Pyongyang’s blowing up of a joint liaison office in June after South Korean activists send of leaflets criticizing North Korea via balloons from South Korea to the North. [AiR No. 25, June/2020, 4]

North-Korea in possession of miniaturized nuclear devices?

(dql) A United Nations interim report submitted by an independent panel monitoring the UN sanctions against North Korea confirms that Pyongyang “is continuing its nuclear program, including the production of highly enriched uranium and construction of an experimental light water reactor.” The report, furthermore, stated that nations believed that Pyongyang has been able to establish “miniaturized nuclear devices to fit into the warheads of its ballistic missiles.” [Deutsche Welle]

India: New Delhi to halt military imports to boost domestic defense manufacturing

(lm) Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh on Sunday revealed a list of more than 100 items of military equipment that will be progressively banned for importation between December 2020 and December 2025. Affecting weapons ranging from sniper rifles to light-combat helicopters and space satellites, the move follows Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s call for cutting the military’s dependence of expensive imports. [Reuters] [The Straits Times] [Forbes]

India has fast-tracked military purchases in the wake of the June border clash between Indian and Chinese troops, with the government approving the purchase of 33 Russian fighter jets and upgrades to 59 other planes in July. [AiR No. 29, July/2020, 3]

India, Pakistan observe first Kashmir anniversary

(lm) In August last year, India unilaterally abrogated Article 370 of its constitution, breaking the state of Kashmir into two Union territories – one comprising the Hindu-dominated Jammu region and the Muslim-majority Kashmir valley, known as Jammu and Kashmir, and the second being the Buddhist enclave of Ladakh. [AiR No. 45, November/2019, 1] [AiR No. 32, August/2019, 1]

On Wednesday – the first anniversary of the revocation of Kashmir’s semi-autonomy – Indian authorities kept tight lid on potential protests in Kashmir, imposing a curfew and prohibiting local politicians to leave their homes. Meanwhile, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi laid the foundation stone for a temple to Hindu warrior-god Ram at a disputed holy site in the ancient temple town of Ayodhya [see AiR No. 31, August/2020, 1]. His ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had advocated since the mid-1980s for a temple to be built on the site where, in 1992, Hindu activists had torn down a medieval mosque, sparking sectarian riots nationwide that killed nearly 2,000 people. [Reuters 1] [bbc 1] [bbc 2] [South China Morning Post 1]

The same day, a grenade explosion at a rally in the southern Pakistani city of Karachi left dozens of people wounded. The rally had been organized by a one of Pakistan's major religious parties to express solidarity with the people of Indian-administered Kashmir. An ethnic Sindhi armed separatist group claimed responsibility for the attack and announced its alliance with the Balochistan Liberation Army, a secessionist militant group fighting for the independence of the Balochistan region in southwestern Pakistan [see AiR No. 26, June/2020, 5]. [RadioFreeEurope] [Al Jazeera]

The attack took place as thousands of people rallied in major cities throughout the country to protest and observe the day as "Youm-e-Istehsal" or the "day of exploitation". Pakistani President Arif Alvi and Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi led the largest rally in the capital, Islamabad, where protesters chanted anti-India slogans and urged world powers to intervene on behalf of residents in the Muslim-majority Indian administered region. [AA]

In a surprise move on Thursday, key figure in the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and former telecoms minister Manoj Sinha was appointed Lieutenant Governor of Jammu and Kashmir. [Reuters 2]

On Monday, a local village chief died of gunshots wounds, becoming the fifth member of India's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to be killed by militants in Kashmir since last month. The string of attacks has aroused fear within the local ranks of the BJP, with at least 16 of its local members publicly resigning from the party since the attacks began last month – eight of them since last week. [The Straits Times] [Times of India] [see also AiR No. 31, August/2020, 1]

Pakistan issues new political map, lays claim to all Jammu and Kashmir

(lm) A day before Islamabad observed the first anniversary of the revocation of Jammu`s and Kashmir`s constitutional autonomy by India, the Pakistan government on Tuesday unveiled the country`s new political map, laying claim to all of Jammu and Kashmir. The new map marks the Himalayan region as “Indian illegally occupied" Jammu-Kashmir, clearly stating it is disputed territory awaiting final status to be decided by UN resolutions. Mr. Khan introduced the new map after its approval by the Cabinet and endorsement by opposition parties. [AA] [South China Morning Post 1]

The issuance of Pakistan`s political map appears to be a tit-for-tat maneuver in return for India doing the same on October 31 last year following the revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s constitutional autonomy and bifurcation into the Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh on August 5 the same year. India, through its map had laid claim on the disputed area in its entirety, including Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. Following its release, the Indian map had been rejected by China, Pakistan and Nepal. [DAWN] [AiR No. 45, November/2019, 1] [AiR No. 32, August/2019, 1]

On paper, the map extends Islamabad’s territorial claim north-eastward up to the Chinese-held Karakoram Pass, linking Pakistan with Chinese-administered territory via the Shaksgam Valley. To the east is the Aksai Chin region – the limit of China’s claims in Kashmir which it has controlled since a 1962 war with India. Between the two lies the Siachen Glacier, an undefined area at the northern extreme of the Line of Control (LoC) between Pakistani- and Indian-administered Kashmir. The map also reflects Pakistan’s position on Sir Creek, a separate maritime boundary dispute with India. [South China Morning Post 2]

Beyond reasserting Islamabad`s claim to all of Indian-administered Kashmir – minus the parts claimed by China, the map also lays new claim to Junagadh - a Hindu majority princely state whose Muslim ruler opted to join Pakistan in 1947 but whose Hindu subjects said they wanted to join India. [The Diplomat]

India`s Ministry of External Affairs issued a press statement rejecting Islamabad`s map as “an exercise in political absurdity”, and accused Pakistan of attempting a form of “territorial aggrandizement supported by cross-border terrorism”. [The Hindu] In light of the recent incursions by China across the Line of Actual Control into Indian-administered Kashmir [see AiR No. 31, August/2020, 1], Pakistan`s new map reinforces the Indian perception of a two-front theatre, as it does hint at the possibility of coordinated operations between Beijing and Islamabad.

Pakistan: Increasingly isolated on the Kashmir issue, Islamabad strengthens ties with China

(lm) When Pakistan last week observed the first anniversary of the revocation of Kashmir`s semi-autonomy by India [see above], it also unveiled its new policy to deal with the historic dispute. Importantly, with newly published map being an example in case, Islamabad might increasingly rely on the strategic China-Pakistan nexus to keep the issue alive – both domestically, and internationally. [The Wire]

On Wednesday, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi expressed frustration over the response of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) and Saudi Arabia, insisting that the OIC was not doing enough to pressure India on the Kashmir issue. Calling again on Riyadh to convene a special meeting of its Council of Foreign Ministers – a request that was initially turned down by Saud Arabia in February – Mr. Qureshi said that Islamabad was willing to proceed “with or without” support from Riyadh. [Times of India]

The announcement coincided with Saudi Arabia ending a loan and oil supply to Pakistan, forcing Islamabad to repay a $1 billion Saudi loan. The original loan was part of a $6.2 billion package announced by Saudi Arabia in November 2018, when Islamabad was struggling with rapidly expanding trade deficit and declining foreign reserves. The package included $3 billion in cash assistance and a $3.2 billion worth of annual oil and gas supply on deferred payments. According to the Pakistani Ministry of Finance and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Pakistan has taken the loan of $1 billion from China to pay back the Saudi Arabia loan. [Middle East Monitor] [Nikkei Asian Review] [Daily Times]

The same day, Pakistan`s Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (ECNEC) approved a $ 6.8 billion upgrade of railway infrastructure in Kashmir. The costliest project to date as part of the multibillion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) agreement, the Mainline-1 (ML-1) project involves upgrading and track-doubling railway lines in the Peshawar – Lahore – Karachi corridor. About 90 percent of the cost will be provided by Chinese banks in the form of long-term loans on conditions yet to be negotiated between the Beijing and Islamabad. [South China Morning Post] [International Railway Journal]

Ties between Beijing and New Delhi have been strained since early May, with Indian and Chinese troops being locked in a simmering stand-off at several points along their Line of Actual Control (LoC). Talks to restore peace and smoothen bilateral relations have hit a roadblock, as both countries in July deployed additional weapons and troops, seemingly preparing for the long-haul on their disputed Himalayan frontier [see AiR No. 30, July/2020, 4].

It was against this backdrop that China on August 5 tried to bring back the Kashmir issue to international attention again. After Beijing supported Pakistan’s bid for a “closed consultation”, the UN Security Council was briefed behind closed doors on the situation in Kashmir. “China is seriously concerned about the current situation in Kashmir and the relevant military actions. We oppose unilateral actions that will complicate the situation,” China’s mission to the United Nations in New York said in a statement. [Reuters]

Asian countries protesting, cooperating over Chinese posture in South China Sea

(ls) Vietnam is going to purchase six patrol boats from Japan to boost its Coast Guard’s maritime law enforcement capabilities. The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) signed a $345 million loan agreement with the Vietnamese government at the end of July. It is the first deal of this kind between the two countries as Japan had previously only sold fishing vessels to Vietnam.

The deal comes at a time when Vietnam has been at odds with China over territorial claims in the South China Sea. In a corresponding statement, JICA said the project would contribute to “the realization of a free and open Indo-Pacific”, a term that has initially been coined by the United States. The development demonstrates Vietnam’s increasing alignment with the United States and its ally Japan in defense of its interests against China. [Japan Times]

JICA has already signed similar agreements for the construction of patrol ships and boats with the Philippine Coast Guard under the joint Japanese-Philippine Maritime Safety Capability Improvement Project (MSCIP) program. [Naval News]

Meanwhile, the Philippine navy chief has called for a diplomatic protest against the presence of two Chinese research ships in a disputed area surrounding the Reed Bank. The Reed Bank is an energy-rich area of the South China Sea that the Philippines claims within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). This claim was essentially confirmed by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague in 2016. China, however, does not recognize the ruling. [South China Morning Post]

In a related development, Malaysia’s Foreign Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said after a phone call with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that matters relating to the South China Sea must be resolved peacefully based on universally recognized principles of international law, including the United Nations Convention on The Law of The Sea (UNCLOS). However, he also emphasized that Malaysia should not be caught up in the geopolitics of superpowers, emphasizing the need to maintain good relations with all sides. [Malay Mail] [Benar News]

Malaysia submitted a note verbale to the United Nations on 29 July, rejecting China's claims to historic rights, or other sovereign rights or jurisdiction, with respect to the maritime areas of the South China Sea “encompassed by the relevant part of the 'ninedash line'”. [United Nations]

Upcoming Online Events

12 August 2020 @ 3:00 pm IST, Observer Research Foundation, India

The future we want: Towards digital inclusion

This online discussion will explore the fact that under conditions of rapidly growing digitalization there is a need to expand the scope of what it means to build an inclusive future economy, including bridging divides based on geography, identity, gender and literacy. How can truly “inclusive” digital growth be achieved? What are the responsibilities of private sector entities, as custodians of our digital futures? What are the legal and policy levers required to achieve this vision?

If you are interest, you will find more details at [ORF].

12 August 2020 @ 3:00 pm ET, Center for Strategic & International Studies, USA

Countering Chinese Espionage

This webinar will discuss the threat posed by Chinese espionage, and how the Department of Justice has been responding.

More about the event can be found at [CSIS].

13 August 2020 @ 3:00 pm BST, Chatham House, UK

Latin America - The Outlook for Regional Integration and Global Trade Beyond COVID-19?

This online event will address questions on the current status and future prospects of regional integration in Latin America including: How successful have Latin America’s past efforts of integration been, what should be the future strategy towards achieving this goal, and what are the main challenges to overcome? What is the status of ongoing trade negotiations, including those with the UK post-Brexit? Will the COVID-19 pandemic encourage efforts for further regional and global integration, or will increased protectionism and the fragmentation of supply chains become the dominant forces? And will China’s economic influence in Latin America gain further strength in the post-pandemic era?

For further details, visit [Chatham House].

13 August 2020 @ 12:00 pm ET, Havard Kennedy School, USA

Saving Our Own Lives: Grassroots Responses to COVID-19 Around the Globe

This online seminar will deal with the role of grassroots organizations in responding to COVID-19. It raises the questions: To what extent have these organizations proven better equipped to deal with the pandemic response, and what are the challenges that these associations face when organizing in the age of COVID-19? In addition, how can they seize this moment to turn their organizing into power and influence in political and economic life?