Grasp the pattern, read the trend

No. 12, March/2021, 4

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

The AiR team is presenting you this week’s brief on the latest events and developments in domestic politics, constitutional law, human rights, international relations and geopolitics in Asia.

I wish you an informative read and extend special greetings to readers in Bangladesh, Greece and Pakistan which celebrate Independence Day and the Pakistan Day this week. 

With best regards,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in Southeast Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Announcements

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China: Strengthening data protection on mobile apps and internet content authencity

(dql) In a move to strengthen data protection for mobile app users, China has issued a new regulation to specify what ‘necessary’ personal information mobile apps are allowed to obtain from their users who on their side can refuse to provide data outside those ‘necessary’ information without facing any obstruction in the use of the app. 

The new regulation, jointly released by the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC), the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the Public Security Bureau (PSB) and the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), applies to 39 types of mobile apps, covering for example messaging, online shopping, payments, ride hailing, short video, live stream and mobile games. It will enter into force on May 1. [South China Morning Post]

Meanwhile, CAC, the country’s central internet regulator, summoned more than ten major Chinese tech companies to inform them about its plans to strengthen efforts to secure authenticity of internet content in the wake of rapid progress in related ‘deep fakes’ technology and voice-based social network. The companies – among them giants like Tencent, Alibaba and TikTok owner ByteDance – were told about on-spot inspections and urged to “strictly abide by relevant laws and regulations, jointly safeguard internet transmission order and create a benign and healthy network ecosystem.” [Global Times]

China: Women’s rights activist formally arrested

(dql) Authorities in the eastern Chinese province of Shandong have formally arrested women’s and labor rights activist Li Qiaochu, following her arrest in early February on suspicion of subversion of state power after she posted on social media accusations that her partner, the detained rights activist Xu Zhiyong, and rights lawyer Ding Jiaxi were tortured while in detention. 

For her rights activism, Li recently received the Cao Shunli Memorial Award for Human Rights Defenders of Washington, D.C.-based Chinese Human Rights Defenders, a non-government organization of domestic and overseas Chinese human rights activists and groups.

Last year, Li spent four months in secret detention before being released on bail. Earlier this year, she published an account of her time in detention, including 24/7 surveillance, constant abuse, and negotiation with authorities over her own medical needs. [South China Morning Post] [Radio Free Asia]

China: Anti-corruption fight in Inner Mongolia to be sharpened

(dql) Chinese President Xi Jinping announced to sharpen the Chinese Communist Party’s anti-corruption campaign in Inner Mongolia, following a recent large coal-related corruption case in this autonomous region, involving the province’s former Party chief and illicit money of more than 463 million USD. 

Speaking to Inner Mongolian deputies at the recent plenary session of the National People’s Congress, Xi made clear that the Chinese Communist Party “will go after these people – who use our national resources for bribery, trade power for money by taking advantage of their positions as Communist Party officials and public servants – at all costs and hold them responsible.” He added that the Party “won’t tolerate the old cases once they have been uncovered,” referring to cases older than 2012 when Xi launched his anti-corruption campaign and signaling the Party’s determination to hold officials “accountable for life.” 

Since 2018, over 670 corruption cases related to the region’s coal industry and 960 cadres and officials have been investigated. Inner Mongolia is China’s second largest coal producer supplying the country with around 25% of its coal reserves. Output reached 1 billion tons in 2019. [South China Morning Post] [Global Times]

China: Campaign to intensify combat against illegal Yangtze river sand exploitation launched

(dql) China’s Ministries for Public Security, for Water, and for Transport are joining hands to launch a campaign aimed at boosting sand mining management along the Yangtze River Economic Belt, as well as intensifying the government’s crackdown on illegal sand mining in the river. Measures of the campaign, which is to be run until the end of the year, include the requirement for local governments to set standards for planning and management of sand mining in the river and its tributaries and lakes, along with the introduction of no-mining zones and periods as well as the promotion of intensive and big mining projects instead of dispersed mining. Furthermore, authorities are ordered to strictly enforce the new Yangtze River Protection Law which came into force on March 1 and increased fines for illegal sand mining to a maximum of more than 300.000 USD, compared with the highest fine of some 46.000 USD in the past.

Despite this toughening, police arrested only in March not less than 37 people accused of illegally mining around 2 million tons of sand worth nearly 15 million USD from the Yangtze, indicating how profitable trading sand is. [South China Morning Post]

The economic belt along the 6.300 km-long Yangtze River consists of 11 provinces and municipalities, covers 40% of the country’s population and accounts for more than 40% of the GDP. [CGTN]

As urbanization continues to boom the demand for sand as key ingredient for concrete is rising, too. More than 50% of the world’s population now live in cities, with the United Nations projecting another 2.5 billion to move to urban areas over the course of the next  three decades. For a critical account of the dramatic increase of sand mining in China and across the world over the past two decades, causing serious damage to the ecosystems in the affected regions, see [The Guardian]. 

Japan: Non-recognition of same-sex marriage unconstitutional 

(dql) In a landmark ruling, a Japanese district court ruled that the country’s failure to recognize same-sex marriage is “unconstitutional”. The ruling refers to one of several cases brought to district courts in various parts of Japan by a group of same-sex couples who are seeking damages for mental suffering caused by the non-recognition of their marriage. The court rejected the compensation claim, but argued that the non-recognition violates to the right to equality, adding that the government’s failure to implement legal measures to offer “even a degree,” of marital benefits to same-sex couples was “discriminatory”. [Japan Times]

While the ruling does not legalize same-sex marriage and doesn’t apply nationwide, it is the first of its kind in Japan, raising hopes among the LGTB community that it will herald a new era for gender and marriage equality in the country. The hopes are reinforced by public support for the legalization on same-sex marriage which has increased to not less than 80% among Japanese aged between 20 and 59. [Equaldex]

While Japan is within the G7 group the only country that does not recognized either same-sex civil unions or same-sex marriage, it is in good company within Asia where only Taiwan has legalized same-sex marriage in May 2019 and Thailand is considering a bill that would legally recognize same-sex civil partnerships. [New York Times] [Time]

Japan: Communications Minister under pressure over a dinner with Japanese telecom giant executives

(dql) In the latest of a string of cases in the ‘dining scandal’, in the course of which several high-profile members of Prime Minister Suga’s Cabinet and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) had to resign, Japanese Communications Minister Ryota Takeda admitted to have dined last November with executives of Japanese telecom giant Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corp (NTT). Among them were NTT President Jun Sawada and Noriko Endo, an independent director of NTT Docomo Inc, Japan’s predominant mobile phone operator and an NTT subsidiary. At the time of the gathering, an NTT tender offer to make NTT Docomo a wholly owned subsidiary was under way.

Takeda denied to have violated an ethics code for ministers that bans them from being wined and dined by sectors under their jurisdiction. He argued that he “did not receive any specific request or demand,” from the NTT side, adding that he did not eat at the gathering and paid himself his three glasses of beer. [Japan Today]

In a separate development, House of Representatives member and former Justice Minister Katsuyuki Kawai of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has reportedly expressed his intention to resign as a lawmaker. Kawai is currently standing trial over charges of vote-buying. He is accused of handing out a total of about 265.000 USD to 100 individuals, including local politicians and supporters in his home prefecture of Hiroshima, to reward them for votes for his wife Anri Kawai which made her winning a seat in the 2019 House of Councilor election. [Mainichi]

South Korea: Land speculation scandal keeps dominating domestic politics 

(nm) The land speculation scandal involving public officials of the state housing company Korea Land and Housing Corp. (LH) is still dominating South Korean domestic politics three weeks after it was uncovered by civic groups. The scandal has led to a row of political and investigative measures.

Last week, the government identified 28 more public sector employees who had purchased land at the sites in question, 23 of whom are suspected of engaging in speculative transactions and will be referred to the police for investigation. The 28 were identified during the second stage of an inquiry into the scandal which covered 8,780 public servants of local governments and employees of public corporations and add to 20 LH officials who had been identified during the first round. [Korea Herald 1] 

Responding to the scandal, the main opposition People Power Party (PPP) submitted a proposal to the National Assembly that seeks to launch a parliamentary inquiry into all Cheong Wa Dae employees, public servants across municipal and local governments, as well as officials of housing organizations. Additionally, the PPP and the ruling Democratic Party (DP) are in discussions on passing an independent counsel investigation bill and a survey into land transactions of all sitting lawmakers. While the DP demands to expand the geographical scope of the investigation as well as its time frame, the PPP is trying to take on real estate-related corruption in an intense political environment considering public discontent over housing prices, but is expected to be reluctant to include development projects of previous conservative administrations. [Korea Herald 2] 

The DP also agreed with the government on pushing for expanding the asset declaration system of civil servants to include public servants of all ranks and positions and to mandate the prior declaration of property purchases. [Korea Times 1] 

In addition to these political measures, the police have raided the land ministry, the LH headquarters and regional offices, as well as a branch of Nonghyup Bank suspected of providing loans for land purchases. [Korea Herald 3]

President Moon Jae-in’s approval ratings have crashed to their lowest levels since he took office in 2017 as pressure is mounting over soaring home prices. Successful efforts in rooting out property-related irregularities among public officials are seen as vital ahead of the Seoul and Busan mayoral by-elections on April 7, as well as the presidential election next year. [Korea Times 2] [Nikkei Asia]

South Korea: Perjury case in relation to former PM permanently closed 

(nm) South Korean Justice Minister Park Beom-kye has expressed disappointment over the decision by senior prosecutors to close the alleged perjury case involving former Prime Minister Han Myeong-sook, after they had met last week to re-examine the case.

Han, a representative of the liberal bloc, had served as prime minister between 2006 and 2007 and was imprisoned from 2015 to 2017 after she was convicted of accepting illegal political funds from a businessman while in office. Han has claimed innocence, arguing the charges were politically fabricated. Allegations surfaced last year that prosecutors had forced fellow inmates of said businessman to give false testimonies against Han in order to win her conviction. Following questions sparked by the Supreme Prosecutors Office (SPO) dismissing the perjury charges against two witnesses and investigators earlier in March, Park had ordered the SPO to conduct a full review into the allegations as the statute of limitations on the case expired this week. 

Park now voiced dismay by the prosecutors’ decision to close the case and stated it was “questionable” if the meeting properly satisfied the purpose of his investigation command. The disagreement reveals the breach that has lingered between the prosecution and the justice ministry for years. [Korea Herald 1] [Korea Herald 2]

Taiwan: More than 700.000 signatures for a referendum to move national gas terminal site 

(dql) The Rescue Datan Algal Reefs Alliance, a coalition of environmental activists, has submitted more than 700,000 signatures in support of a referendum to relocate the site of a proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal. The group cited threats to the ecosystem of an algae reef in northern Taiwan as grounds for its legislative move. 

The government, however, made clear that it has no plans to move the terminal’ site. It insisted that the construction of the terminal would not harm the algae reef but added that it is willing to invest more in the protection of the ref, but as of right now is not considering any alternative locations. [Focus Taiwan] 

The terminal construction is also fiercely disputed between the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Kuomintang (KMT), which called plans of the ruling to hold nationwide more than 300 public forums on government policies “propaganda,” aimed at mobilizing DPP supporters against the referendum. [Taipei Times]

Taiwan is boosting its LNG imports as part of its massive energy transition strategy, which aims to phase out nuclear power by 2025 and increase the share of natural gas to 50% of the country’s power mix. In 2020, gas made up almost 36% of the mix. [Bloomberg]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

Bangladesh: Thousands flee 'massive fire' at Rohingya refugee camps

Authorities have begun investigating a huge blaze that ripped through a sprawling Rohingya refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar in southeastern Bangladesh on March 22, forcing at least 50,000 people to flee and left seven people believed dead. The fire, which marks the largest of multiple fires that have plagued the camps this year alone, was believed to have started in one of the 34 camps, before spreading to two other camps. [CNN] [France 24] [The Straits Times 1] [The Straits Times 2]

Meanwhile, a United Nations delegation on March 12 completed a three-day visit to a remote island in the Bay of Bengal where authorities have moved more than 13,000 Rohingya refugees since December, ignoring ongoing complaints by rights groups concerned about the low-lying island’s vulnerability to cyclones and floods. The UN earlier said it had not been allowed to carry out a technical and safety assessment of the island and was not involved in the transfer of refugees there [see AiR No. 50, December/2020, 3]. [Arab News]

To ease chronic overcrowding in the sprawling refugee camps of Cox’s Bazar [see AiR No. 23, June/2020, 2], Bangladesh wants to eventually transfer 100,000 of the more than one million refugees to Bhasan Char. The government routinely dismisses concerns of floods, citing the construction of a 2m embankment to prevent flooding along with facilities such as cyclone centers and hospitals [see AiR No. 49, December/2020, 2].

Bhutan: Gender-based violence spiked during last year

(lm) The number of people experiencing gender-based violence has increased by 53.5 percent over the course of last year, according to local NGO Respect, Educate, Nurture, and Empower Women (RENEW), which provides emergency, comprehensive and integrated services to the survivors of domestic and gender-based violence. Last year, more than 1,000 people – i.e. at least 3 people per day – have experienced gender-based violence, according to RENEW. [Kuensel]

India: Student protests, free speech concerns after PM Modi critic quits top Indian university

(lm) A prominent critic of the current Indian government and defender of academic freedom, Dr Pratap Bhanu Mehta, resigned on March 16 as a professor at Ashok University following a meeting with the university’s Trustees. In his letter of resignation, Mehta suggested that he had been forced to step down because his writings were considered a “political liability” for the private university and its promoters. [The Indian Express] [The Straits Times 1]

The respected scholar on political theory and constitutional law had already stepped down as vice-chancellor of Ashoka University in 2019, reportedly because the trustees were worried by his outspoken views but remained a political science professor. According to the university's student newspaper, Mehta's recent resignation was endorsed by the board because it would speed up efforts to acquire land needed for an expansion. [National Herald]

Arvind Subramanian, another prominent academic at the university who once served as Chief Economic Adviser to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, also resigned from his position on March 18 in solidarity with Mehta, calling his treatment an affront to "academic expression and freedom".

The resignations caused students to hold several days of demonstrations at the university’s campus outside New Delhi, calling for boycott of classes. Furthermore, a group of marquee names from universities in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and Australia issued a statement in solidarity with Mehta the following day, criticizing Ashok University for not defending him as their institutional duty. [The Wire 1]

On March 21, then, the two renowned professors, alongside Ashoka University’s Chancellor, Vice-Chancellor, and Chairman of the Board of Trustees, issued a joint statement, in which they made clear that their decisions were determined by conversations with the university’s Founders rather than personal choices. [The Straits Times 2] [The Wire 2]

Nepal: Opposition Nepali Congress not actively working towards forming a government

(lm) While calls have been growing within the Nepali Congress (NC) to actively work towards forming a new government, the party’s President and former Prime Minister, Sher Bahadur Deuba, said on March 21 his NC would focus on ensuring a victory in a potential mid-term election, rather than seeking to topple Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s government. [The Himalayan Times 1]

Two days prior to Deuba’s remarks, the party’s General-Secretary claimed that his NC would form a new coalition government with the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) (CPN(M)) and the People's Socialist Party, Nepal, (PSP-N) once the two parties have indicated their support for the NC. Furthermore, a meeting of the NC’s faction led by the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Ram Chandra Poudel, decided on March 21 to pressure Deuba to actively work towards unseating the prime minister. [The Himalayan Times 2] [The Kathmandu Post]

To become prime minister, Deuba requires the support of lawmakers from both Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s CPN(M) of as well as from the PSP-N. However, the CPN(M) is yet to officially withdraw its support from the coalition government, almost a month after the Supreme Court (SC) had declared the 2018 post-election merger of the now-defunct Nepal Communist Party (NCP) void ab initio [see AiR No. 10, March/2021, 2].

Pakistan: Government zeroes in on Election Commission

(lm) Leaders of the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party on March 15 called on the country’s Chief Election Commissioner to resign and demanded that the current the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) be reconstituted, claiming the Commission had failed to hold the recently concluded Senate elections in a transparent manner. [Geo TV] [Khaleej Times 1]

Prime Minister Imran Khan survived a vote of confidence in the lower house of Parliament on March 6 after his ruling PTI party had failed to secure a majority in the Senate elections held three days earlier. Two days prior to the Senate elections, the Supreme Court had ruled on March 1 that the elections should be held via secret ballot, but their secrecy is not absolute and that the ECP should employ the latest technology to ensure 'that the election is conducted honestly, justly, fairly and in accordance with law and that corrupt practices are guarded against.' Citing lack of time, the ECP the following day stated that this year's elections would be conducted as per past practice. [AiR No. 10, March/2021, 2]

There is a good case to believe that the PTI is seeking to undermine the ECP’s authority and public image, for the ECP has issued notices to the PTI and its own scrutiny committee to appear before it on March 22 to explain their stance over secrecy of scrutiny in a case pertaining to allegations it had fraudulently financed its election campaign. [Khaleej Times 2]

In 2014, a founding member of the PTI had filed a petition with the ECP, alleging the party had illicitly received funds from foreigners. Arguing that the commission does not have the authority to examine the accounts of any political party, the PTI has since approached the Islamabad High Court six times to stay the hearing of the petition. Further, the PTI filed similar petitions against the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) with the ECP. In January, the PTI admitted raising campaign funds through foreign accounts, but blamed illegalities on its agents in the United States without specifying who they were [see AiR No. 4, January/2021, 4].

Pakistan: Opposition alliance fails to build consensus on mass resignation

(lm) The Pakistan Democratic Movement - an 11-party coalition of opposition parties – has postponed their long march on the capital, Islamabad, after the group failed to reach a consensus on the mass resignation of their members from provincial and national assemblies. 

PDM President Maulana Fazlur Rehman said on March 16 the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) had sought more time to reconsider its position on the issue of mass resignations and said it would first consult internally with the party’s Central Executive Committee (CEC). Other leaders of the movement were quoted stating that the PPP was not serious about implementing the agenda of the movement and accused it of having some form of “understanding”with the ruling establishment.

There is a good case to believe that from the PPP’s standpoint, the recent Senate elections – notably the victory of former Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani in a crucial contest for the senate seat representing Islamabad – have caused a major dent in the ruling alliance. Further, the PPP currently heads the government in Pakistan’s southern province of Sindh. It therefore seems to follow that the PPP leadership would rather give tough time to the government while staying in the assemblies, instead of leaving the field open for the government. [Dawn]

Pakistan: Government urged to probe killing of journalist

(lm) The New York-based advocacy group “Committee to Protect Journalists” (CPJ) has called on authorities in Pakistan’s southern province of Sindh to conduct a “credible” investigation into the killing of a journalist last week. [CPJ]

The journalist died in a hospital on March 16, a day after unknown assailants riding a motorcycle and a car with four passengers had opened fire on him while he was sitting in a barbershop. Local police has announced the formation of a team to investigate the killing, insisting that they were in the process of collecting evidence and recording statements from witnesses to ascertain the cause of the crime. [Voice of America]

Pakistan: Over 170 killed in Balochistan in 2020, according to local human rights council

(lm) 480 individuals were secretly abducted and another 177 killed with their body concealed after the fact in Pakistan’s restive Balochistan province, according to a report published by the Human Rights Council of Balochistan, which was published on March 17. However, the statistics only capture a small fracture of the true number of cases, according to members of the rights group, as numbers were derived from the information accessible to them from various areas of Balochistan. [The Balochistan Post]

Sri Lanka: No final decision on burqa ban, according to foreign minister

(lm) After facing widespread criticism, Sri Lanka rushed to clarify on March 16 that no decision has been taken to ban the wearing of burqa, an enveloping outer garment which covers the body and the face that is worn by women in some Islamic traditions. The previous day, Pakistan’s envoy to Colombo had criticized the island nation’s move to ban the burqa, saying it was a 'divisive' step impacting Muslims in Sri Lanka and across the globe. [Arab News] [The Straits Times]

Last week, the minister of public security of Buddhist-majority Sri Lanka had created a controversy, seeking Cabinet approval for the ban of burqas on national security grounds. The minister had also revealed plans to ban more than 1,000 out of the nearly 2,300 Islamic seminaries, or madrasas, which, he said, were 'flouting national education policy.' [AiR No. 11, March/2021, 3]. If implemented, the proposed ban could be the latest move impacting Sri Lanka’s minority Muslims, who make up nearly 10 percent of its total population of 22 million, where Buddhists account for 70 percent of the census.

There is a good case to believe that the ongoing 46th session of the United Nations Human Rights Council (UN HRC) has led to Colombo’s change of heart. For several Muslim-majority countries are among the 47 UN HRC’s member states that will vote on a resolution on Sri Lanka’s accountability and post-war reconciliation at the end of the four-week spring session next week [see AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2]. A UN resolution passed against Sri Lanka could allow for prosecutions of government and military officials involved in ending a decades-long civil war in 2009, and Colombo is sensitive to anything that may impact voting there. [Anadolu Agency]

Further, almost a third of the UN HRC’s member states are also members of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), which recently criticized a Sri Lankan policy to forcibly cremate coronavirus victims in the country, in violation of the Islamic tradition of burial. The policy was repealed last month. [AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1]

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Cambodia: Economic diplomacy and hurdles to take

(nd) Cambodia’s foreign engagement is characterized by a certain ‘economic pragmatism’ — the alignment of foreign policy with economic development interests, referring to it as economic diplomacy. The global economic shift to East Asia was recognized as a good opportunity for Cambodia to develop and modernize its industries, production and services, and to develop infrastructure connectivity. ASEAN, China, Japan and South Korea are Cambodia’s key economic partners. Internally, Cambodia strived to economically reform and develop human resources, successfully so with a growth rate of 7% over the past two decades.

Due to democracy issues and human rights violations, the partnerships with the EU and the US are strained, except China. Still, the power asymmetry towards its biggest investor China and its influence pose certain risks. Therefore, the economic diplomacy strategy of 2021–2023 is an important step to further promote trade, investment, tourism and the development of Cambodian cultural identity and shall enhance Cambodia’s international integration, diversify its economic partners, expand its export markets, and attract foreign investors and tourists. It contributes to Cambodia’s vision of becoming a higher-middle-income country by 2030 and a high-income country by 2050. With the Cambodia–China Free Trade Agreement, the Cambodia–South Korea Free Trade Agreement and Cambodia’s participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, it achieved further regional connection.

Amid Covid-19, Cambodia’s economy contracted by 3,1%, forcing it to launch an economic recovery plan as part of a broader effort to build more national resilience towards external shocks. Nationwide, the consensus seems to be that the economic performance is bound to national security. Cambodia will therefore boost healthcare spending, invest in its workforce, and release a digital economy policy framework to take advantage of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. [East Asia Forum]

Indonesia: HRW report on Islamic dress code

(nd) According to a report by Human Rights Watch, Indonesian girls and women face social pressure, bullying and harassment if they don't comply with mandatory Islamic dress codes in schools, workplaces and government offices. The report identified more than 60 discriminatory local, regional and provincial by-laws enforcing dress codes for women and girls implemented since 2001. According to the report, the dress codes are a sign of rising intolerance and religious conservatism in the Muslim majority country. In an effort to mitigate such tensions, a decree recently banned the mandatory wearing of hijabs in public schools. [South China Morning Post] This development highlights rising pressure by conservative Islamic forces.

Indonesia: Further arrests of JI militants

(nd) 22 arrested suspects are connected to the Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) militant group, one of them a leader who was recruiting and training new members. In a raid, police seized weapons and extremist literature. The trainings were military-style and aimed at attacking police. JI is linked to Al Qaeda and carried out a string of bombings in Indonesia, including the 2002 bombings in Bali killing 202 people. JI was banned in 2008 and significantly weakened by counterterrorism operations, including the arrest of 10 militants earlier this month, and 22 in January. The leader managed to recruit 50 members in the past 5 years. [ABC]

Laos: Clash between Laotian soldiers and insurgents

(py) A clash between Lao government troops and insurgent groups in Xaysomboun province resulted in one death. After the clash, the soldiers started patrolling the area and blocked any individual from entering the site between Thathom district’s Vangkhan Point and Sobjae Point. The entrance ban will be in place until March 30. Laos has been tackling periodic shootings, ambushes and bomb attacks since 2000.  [Radio Free Asia]

Laos: Possible premature construction of dam to raise concerns among villagers

(py) Laotians living near Luang Prabang dam's construction site claimed that the government has already commenced its construction even before the international approval is completed. Temporary ports, service roads and workers’ camp with a water supply and land clearance have already been 99 percent completed. Expected to commence operation in 2027, the 1,460 megawatts and 3 billion US$ Luang Prabang dam will contribute to Laos plan to be the battery of Southeast Asia, which will displace 581 families and communities in the northern provinces of Luang Prabang and Oudomxay. Though the deputy manager mentioned that 70 percent of the compensation has been paid, stories from displaced residents of other dam constructions show a gloomy future waiting for the displaced with too little and delayed payments or poor living conditions of the provided land. [Radio Free Asia]

Malaysia: Muhyiddin to focus on providing stability

(nd) While expressing his understanding that people are fed up with constant politicking in the country, Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin pledged to concentrate on providing political stability and ensure the smooth government operation amid the pandemic. He added, “when the time is right, we will return the mandate to the people”. He said Perikatan Nasional government was formed out of an unfortunate political crisis, therefore his role was to create a conducive environment to facilitate cooperation. Malaysia was facing three big challenges: The pandemic health crisis, economic fallout, and political instability. Stability, he pointed out, was crucial to obtain foreign investor support to revive the economy. [Malay Mail]

Malaysia: Palm oil plantation withdraws lawsuit

(nd) Sime Darby Plantation has announced it had withdrawn a lawsuit against the head of anti-trafficking NGO Liberty Shared, after Malaysia’s Securities Commission stopped investigations in the world’s largest sustainable palm oil producer. The lawsuit aimed to obtain information about a complaint to the Securities Commission by Liberty Shared into the company’s sustainability disclosures.

Palm oil is used in a large number of commodity products, but has faced global scrutiny for its environmental repercussions and labor rights abuses. December last year, the US banned palm oil imports from Sime Darby over allegations of forced labor. [Reuters]

Malaysia: Prime Minister to announce new stimulus

(nd) Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin announced an economic stimulus package valued RM20 billion (US$4.8 billion) to mitigate Covid-19 repercussions. It is the sixth such package since the start of the pandemic. The 20 strategic initiatives aim to boost economic growth, support business and extend targeted assistance. As of Wednesday, Malaysia reported a total of 327,253 Covid-19 cases and 1,220 deaths. More than 300,000 Malaysians have been inoculated so far. [Channel News Asia]

Myanmar: Rising death toll and more international efforts to pressure the military

(nd) Lawmakers from the National League for Democracy (NLD) have urged the largest foreign-owned oil and gas companies to suspend business ties with the military regime, saying the money earned will be used to reinforce human rights violations. Per month, Myanmar receives earnings of about US$75 million to US$90 million from oil and gas sales, paid through state-owned company Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE). In an effort to cut the junta off these supplies, the Committee Representing Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (CRPH), the Burmese government in exile representing the NLD, sent a notice to France’s Total SE, Malaysia’s Petronas, Thailand’s PTT and South Korea’s POSCO, criticizing them for their failure to condemn the coup, and urging them to suspend their tax payments. [Irrawaddy 1]

Also, CRPH is negotiating with Karen National Union (KNU), Restoration Council of Shan State and Kachin Independent Army (KIA) to form a federal army to protect the protesters. They have cleared all ethnic armed groups from the terror list. In light of the growing violence, so far peaceful protesters started to use self-constructed weapons, such as molotov cocktails, and built barricades from tires, bricks or bamboo. [FAZ in German]

Meanwhile, the efforts of the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) spreads virally, with a “social punishment” campaign against the families of senior members of the regime. On social media, protesters identified names, addresses and other personal information on relatives of the military generals, and urged people to shun and shame the individuals, and to boycott their businesses. [Frontier Myanmar 1] 

Four employees of a private bank were detained for allegedly inciting people to join the civil disobedience movement (CDM). [Irrawaddy 2] Due to the ongoing strikes, companies struggle to pay salaries amid closed banks. [Nikkei Asia 1] With an ongoing strike, the military has fired officials from the Foreign Ministry and has pressured banks to reopen in an effort to avoid an economic collapse. [Frontier Myanmar 2]

With the junta using more excessive force, the death toll rose to over 250 and reports of at least 5 cases of torture in detention have surfaced. Internet shutdowns let information spread slowly. Protesters erected barricades in the streets, which were set on fire making Yangon look like a battle zone. [Asia Times 1] In an effort to intimidate citizens, security forces randomly opened fire in residential areas and at individual residences. Shortages of food and drinking water continued, hinting at a looming humanitarian crisis. Adding to internet blackouts, phone services were cut off in some areas. Protesters reported they refrain from forming groups, which are randomly attacked and shot at by the police.

The military continued to target journalists and closed down the last independent newspaper, The Standard Time Daily, following 7Day News, The Voice, Eleven Myanmar, and the Myanmar Times. Private media outlets have been operating in the country since 2013, after the lifting of the ban on independent media since 1962.  [Radio Free Asia 1] Police also continued to raid homes in search of protesters; over 2,000 people have been arrested. [Radio Free Asia 2] To mark the one-month anniversary of the protests, activists organized a car convoy, others lit candles, joined by Buddhist monks. Reportedly, members of the security forces were attacked and died, as well as two policemen during protests. After security forces have occupied more than 60 schools and university campuses in 13 states and regions, Unicef, Unesco, and private humanitarian group Save the Children, issued a statement condemning the occupation of education facilities as a serious violation of children’s rights. [South China Morning Post 1]

Following the attack on Chinese businesses on Sunday, an unsigned editorial, published on the website of state-run CGTN network, suggested that China might be “forced into taking more drastic action” in Myanmar if its interests are not more firmly safeguarded. The editorial added, “China won’t allow its interests to be exposed to further aggression. If the authorities cannot deliver and the chaos continues to spread, China might be forced into taking more drastic action to protect its interests.” China is deeply involved in Myanmar’s economy and shares a 2,200-kilometer border, which is of interest for Chinese infrastructure projects giving it a corridor to the Indian Ocean. [The Diplomat 1] Inter alia, China is extracting minerals in Myanmar, whose shipments have delayed significantly, making a global price rise likely. China controls 80% of the world’s rare earth mineral supplies. [Asia Times 2]

According to experts, the systematic crackdown on the Rohingyas executed by the military since 2017 is just postponed and likely to restart, possibly turning protests into a “prolonged crisis”. Recently hired Canadian-Israeli lobbyist for the junta, Ari Ben-Menashe, said the military want to repatriate Rohingyas. [Voice of America]

Sam Rainsy, exiled Cambodian opposition leader, Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, Indonesian lawmaker Fadli Zon, Philippine Senator Kiko Pangilinan, former Singapore Deputy Speaker Charles Chong, and former Thai Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya signed a statement urging all ASEAN nations to unite in sanctions against Myanmar and to end impunity. The politicians criticized the “impotence” of ASEAN amid the human rights abuses, and suggested to suspend Myanmar’s membership in the regional bloc. [Benar News]

In some of the strongest comments yet, Indonesian President Joko Widodo urged the violence to stop immediately and to press current chairman of ASEAN, Brunei’s Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah, to call an urgent meeting. [Reuters] Following Indonesia and Malaysia’s joint push for an urgent high-level meeting of ASEAN, Singapore Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan will visit Brunei, before going to Malaysia and Indonesia. [Channel News Asia]

The European Union on Monday imposed sanctions on 11 individuals linked to the coup in Myanmar. The EU already had an arms embargo on Myanmar, and has targeted some senior military officials since 2018. Stronger measures are expected in a move to target the businesses run by the military, mainly through two conglomerates, Myanmar Economic Holdings and Myanmar Economic Corp. [Nikkei Asia 2]

According to Thai media, the Royal Thai Army had supplied 700 sacks of rice to Myanmar army units on Myanmar’s eastern border allegedly on the orders of the Thai government. The commander of the task force denied it and said it was regular trade. Residents told a Reuters reporter the crossing was not a normal trade route. The allegedly supplied army units were cut off by forces of the Karen National Union (KNU), who have pledged allegiance to the protest movement. [Bangkok Post]

Meanwhile, Aung San Suu Kyi was charged with violating an anti-corruption law, with a possible prison sentence of 15 years, adding to four previous charges with other offences. [South China Morning Post 2]

The influential, Sangha Maha Nayaka Committee (Mahana), a government-appointed body of Buddhist abbots, urged the military to end violence against protesters. It was submitted to the Union Minister for Religious Affairs and Culture. The statement mentioned the CDM, which would greatly benefit from support by Mahana. As a rather conservative organization, the clear cut with the military is significant, according to analysts. It might unleash monastic opposition, which has historic precedents. [The Diplomat 2]

Ousted lawmakers of NLD are exploring if the International Criminal Court (ICC) can investigate crimes against humanity committed by the military since the coup. Following the toughening crackdown, hundred have fled Myanmar to bordering Thailand, which has prepared for a big influx of refugees, as well as to India. [South China Morning Post 3]

Philippines: Residents to oppose the division of Palawan, potentially against China’s interests

(lepl) Last year, President Rodrigo Duterte signed an Act that would split Palawan into three provinces. Last week, opposition Senator Leila de Lima applauded the residents’ opposition to the division of Palawan. Due to its natural resources and its proximity to the West Philippine Sea, the division of Palawan could have benefitted China’s interests of territorial expansion. In fact, the Save Palawan Movement protested that the measure would debilitate the voting power of each province, serving a gerrymandering agenda that endangered Philippine sovereignty. [Manila Bulletin]

Philippines: Duterte faces opposition coalition and increasing criticism against human rights violations 

(lepl) President Rodrigo Duterte’s opponents formed 1Sambayan, a coalition that aims to nominate a presidential candidate next year. Besides ineffective responses to the pandemic, the coalition accuses Duterte of extrajudicial killings and human rights violations under his war on drugs. [Benar News]

Similarly, the international human rights coalition Investigate PH affirmed in its report to the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (UNHCHR) that the Philippine state obstructs justice through its failure to hold police and military accountable and its censorship of challenges to unjust laws. However, the accusations were trivialized and vilified by the Presidential Communications Secretary in a series of tweets, which Investigate PH refuted. [Manila Bulletin 1] [Manila Bulletin 2]

Meanwhile, a joint statement by academics in the Philippines and abroad condemned the attacks on and killings of activists, which engender an undemocratic environment of fear and intimidation. This declaration follows a memorandum by the Department of Interior and Local Government that red-tagged a teachers’ union. [Manila Bulletin 3]

Even though top officials of the Philippine National Police (PNP) and the Integrated Bar of the Philippines (IBP) agreed that the killings of lawyers should be thoroughly investigated, the PNP tasked itself for this investigation. This move resembles those criticized by Investigate PH because it facilitates impunity. In fact, most adult Filipinos agreed in a Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey that “it is dangerous to print or broadcast anything critical of the administration, even if it is the truth,” illustrating the impunity that the PNP obscures. [Manila Bulletin 4] [Manila Bulletin 5]

A key element of contention is the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA) of 2020, which activist groups and international organizations have declared unconstitutional and petitioned to stop implementing. After three suspensions, the oral arguments of these petitions will continue on March 23. Nonetheless, the government is expected to press the Supreme Court to dismiss these petitions on the basis that the ATA does not violate constitutional provisions. [Manila Bulletin 6]

In a rare, unprecedented move, the Supreme Court en banc issued a statement condemning the killings of lawyers, judges, and prosecutors, and promised to look into institutional changes to better protect them. This is to answer mounting pressure from lawyers demanding decisive action. Until the end of April, the Supreme Court asks courts and law enforcement agencies to provide “relevant information to shed light on the number and context of each and every threat or killing of a lawyer or judge within the past 10 years.” [Rappler]

Philippines: Duterte believes in a soon termination to ‘communist’ insurgency

(lepl) With only four out of the 11 rebel fronts in Eastern Visayas still standing, President Rodrigo Duterte expressed optimism that the conflict with the insurgency will soon end. Meanwhile, he has visited the region to talk with the beneficiaries of the Barangay Development Program (BDP), a project of the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF-ELCAC). The project would provide a multi-million development package to communities that completely cut ties with the rebels. This incentive to comply with the Philippine state complements with Duterte’s recent approval of amnesties and land distribution for some ex-rebels. Certainly, these programs are not without conditions: the amnesties exclude Abu Sayyaf members, and the lands cannot be sold. [Inquirer] [Manila Bulletin 1] [Manila Times]

Perhaps in an attempt to clear doubt of any turbid collusion with the rebels, Duterte stated that he had only formed friendships with communist rebels pre-election to win votes, but that he could not satisfy the demands of the rebels as a President without committing treason. [Manila Bulletin 2]

Thailand: Activist granted political asylum

(nd) An anti-government activist was granted political asylum in the United States. She fled Thailand in 2017 after she was charged with royal defamation. Her status effectively means she is unable to return to her home country. She was one of another eight Facebook users abducted from their homes in 2016 by security officers for organizing satirical pages targeting PM Prayut Chan-o-cha. [Khaosod]

Thailand: Court to review CCTV material upon activist complaint

(nd) Following complaints by activist Arnon Nampa that jail officials tried to remove him and other political detainees from their jail cell late at night, a Thai criminal court announced to review CCTV footage. Correction officials said they were trying to isolate individuals who had been in court on Monday for Covid-19 tests, which they refused due to the unusual time.

A pre-trial hearing on Monday ruled 22 pro-democracy activists will be tried together on Lese-Majeste and sedition charges. [Benar News]

Thailand: Thai woman charged by US court

(nd) Thai national and former executive of defense contractor Glenn Defense Marine Asia has plead not guilty in US court proceeding charging her with participating in a conspiracy to submit fraudulent price quotes. The defendant alongside two others who were already sentenced in 2017, is accused of submitting false claims of more than $5 million to the US Navy. She was extradited from Thailand to the US. [Chiangrai Times]

Thailand: Further clashes between protesters and police

(nd) On another pro-democracy rally on Sunday, police used tear gas, rubber bullets and water cannons to disperse protesters, injuring dozens, arresting at least 20 for insulting the monarchy and breaching public gathering laws. [Voice of America] Meanwhile, 16 core members of the Khon Kaen, a faction of the anti-government Ratsadon group, answered charges in connection with anti-government rallies. Protests started last year and have raised unprecedented calls to reform the Thai monarchy. [Bangkok Post] In a statement issued after the protest during which journalists were shot with rubber bullets, the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Thailand (FCCT) urged the authorities not to use force on working journalists. [Prachatai 1] Parallelly, Amnesty International called on Thai authorities to drop all charges against children and to investigate authorities' excessive use of force against protesters. Since the protest started in 2020, at least 24 children have been charged, even with Article 112 (Lese Majeste Law), Article 116 (Sedition), carrying lengthy prison sentences, for peacefully expressing their opinion and assemble, violating the rights to fair trial and Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC). [Prachatai 2]

Vietnam: First member of Hien Phap group released after serving full prison term

(lm) The first member of the Hien Phap civil society organization was released from prison on March 9 after serving a sentence of two and a half years. The woman left prison in poor health with weakened eyesight, a digestive disorder and a tumor growing in her chest. [Radio Free Asia]

Formed in 2017, the Hien Phap Group had played a major role in calling for protests that rocked Vietnamese cities in June 2018 in opposition to a proposed cybersecurity law and a law granting concessions of land to Chinese businesses. In a trial closed to family members, all eight group members were found guilty last year under Article 118 of Vietnam’s 2015 Penal Code for “disturbing security” and were sentenced to prison terms ranging from two years and six months to eight years. An appeals court upheld the prison terms of four of the group’s activists in January [see AiR No. 2, January/2021, 2].

Vietnam: Facebook user arrested for publishing writings criticizing the government

(lm) Police in Vietnam arrested on March 9 a Facebook user on accusations of using the social media platform between 2018 and 2020 to allegedly defame the government and distorting its policies, in the latest of a string of arrests aimed at shutting down online criticism of the country’s one-party communist state. The Provincial Public Security website said he will be held in pretrial detention for four months. If convicted, he faces up to 12 years in prison. [Radio Free Asia 1]

The man used Facebook to post articles on human rights abuses and allegations of corruption by state of officials, among others. Further, he had recently declared his intention to run as an independent candidate in the 15thNational Assembly elections, which are scheduled to take place on May 23. [Voice of America]

Separately, a court sentenced on March 18 four people on charges of activities to overthrow the people’s government” for participating in research for the Provisional National government of Vietnam, a claimed government in exile. Headquartered in the United States, the provisional government was founded in 1991 by soldiers and refugees that had been loyal to the South Vietnamese government prior to the country’s unification under communist rule in 1975. In 2018, Vietnam’s Ministry of Public Security classified the provisional government as a terrorist organization. [Radio Free Asia 2]

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China-US relations: All quiet at Alaska meeting  

(dql/zh) As widely expected, last week’s meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan on the one side and Chinese chief diplomat Ynag Jiechi and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the other, the first high-level talks between US and Chinese officials since Joe Biden came to office, concluded with both sides reassuring their own demands and red lines while reiterating hope of cooperation on issues of common interest.

Following close-door talks on Friday, Blinken confirmed that “significant concerns […] about a number of the actions that China has taken and the behavior it’s exhibiting,” were shared, including Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Tibet and Taiwan where both sides are “are fundamentally at odds.” He added that Iran, North Korea, Afghanistan and climate change were identified as areas of possible cooperation. In a separate remark made in Chinese media, Yang called the talks “candid, constructive and beneficial,” conceding that “differences between the two sides,” are still there, while vowing that “China will firmly safeguard its national sovereignty, security, and development. [VOA] [Straits Times]

The conciliatory tone in these remarks stands in sharp contrast to the confrontational one during the opening statements on the Thursday. Blinken and Sullivan expressed “deep concerns” over China’s actions in Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, cyberattacks on the US as well as economic and military coercion towards US allies, calling them threats to “the rules-based order that maintains global stability.” In response, Yang called on the US “to stop advancing its own democracy in the rest of the world,” arguing that “[m]any people within the United States actually have little confidence in the democracy of the United States.” He further claimed that the US on some regional issues “has exercised long-arm jurisdiction and suppression and overstretched the national security through the use of force or financial hegemony, and this has created obstacles for normal trade activities, and the United States has also been persuading some countries to launch attacks on China.” [BBC][Guardian][South China Morning Post] 

Shortly before the meeting, the US had sanctioned additional 24 Chinese and Hong Kong officials over what Washington sees as Beijing’s ongoing crackdown on dissent in semi-autonomous Hong Kong. The move is widely seen as a response to the recent decision to overhaul the city’s electoral system, adopted recently at this year’s plenary session of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and considered by Washington as a “direct attack” on Hong Kong’s autonomy and democratic processes. [AiR No. 11, March/2021, 3]

The sanctions were imposed under the Hong Kong Autonomy Act, which was signed into law by former US President Trump in August last year in response to the Beijing-imposed national security law for Hong Kong. It provides sanctions against officials and entities in the city and mainland China who are deemed responsible for eroding the rights and freedoms in the former British colony.

Among the targeted officials are Wang Chen, Secretary-General of the Standing Committee of the NPC and a member of the Chinese Communist Party’s elite 25-member Politburo, and Tam Yiu-chung, the Hong Kong delegate to the Standing Committee, which drafted the national security law for Hong Kong imposed by Beijing in summer last year.

In response, China’s foreign ministry said “[the sanctions] fully exposed the US’ evil intention to meddle in China’s internal affairs and disrupt Hong Kong”, saying financial institutions under the city’s law will “continue to operate normally and smoothly despite any undue pressure from the US.” [CNN][South China Morning Post]

In a latest development, the US along with the UK and Canada joined the European Union to impose sanctions on four Chinese officials over human rights violations against the Muslim Uighur minority in Xinjiang. In a statement on the coordinated move of the allies, Blinken defended the sanctions arguing that “[a]mid growing international condemnation, the P.R.C. continues to commit genocide and crimes against humanity.” [New York Times] [CBC]

China-US relations: US Federal Communications Commission bans Chinese telecom companies

(zh) The US telecom regulator Federal Communications Commission (FCC) announced that it is initiated proceedings to revoke authorization for China Unicom Americas, Pacific Networks, and its subsidiary ComNet to provide telecommunications services within the US, arguing that the companies “have failed at this stage to dispel serious concerns” of the Commission about the companies being “indirectly owned and controlled by the Chinese government.”

The move comes shortly after the Commission designated five Chinese companies – including Huawei Technologies Co, ZTE Corp, Hytera Communications Corp, Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co and Dahua Technology Co. – as posing a threat to US national security under a 2019 law aimed at protecting US communications networks. [Reuters]

Meanwhile, China’s government has reportedly restricted the use of Tesla electric vehicles by military staff and employees of important state-owned companies, citing concerns over that data collected over cameras installed on the vehicles could be a source of national-security leaks. [Wall Street Journal]

China-US relations: Bans on Chinese telecom companies and Tesla electric cars

(zh) The US telecom regulator Federal Communications Commission (FCC) announced that it has initiated proceedings to revoke authorization for China Unicom Americas, Pacific Networks, and its subsidiary ComNet to provide telecommunications services within the US, arguing that the companies “have failed at this stage to dispel serious concerns” of the Commission about the companies being “indirectly owned and controlled by the Chinese government.” 

The move comes shortly after the Commission designated five Chinese companies – including Huawei Technologies Co, ZTE Corp, Hytera Communications Corp, Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co and Dahua Technology Co. – as posing a threat to US national security under a 2019 law aimed at protecting US communications networks. [Reuters]

Meanwhile, China’s government has reportedly restricted the use of Tesla electric vehicles by military staff and employees of important state-owned companies, citing concerns over that data collected over cameras installed on the vehicles could be a source of national-security leaks. [Wall Street Journal]

China-UK relations: Britain will keep up trade links with its “systemetic challenge”

(zh/dql) The UK announced to strike a balance between defending its security and values against threats from China and cooperating economically with China, as reflected in the recently released “Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy,” the British government’s 10-year defense strategy.

Therein, China is called a “systemic challenge” to the UK’s “security, prosperity and values,” to respond to which the UK would closely work with the NATO and the US. At the same time, the review makes clear that Britain will “continue to pursue a positive trade and investment relationship with China,” and “will also cooperate with China in tackling transnational challenges such as climate change.” [UK Governement]

The review, however, received fierce criticism from the parliament, with Conservative Party lawmakers accusing Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government of “going soft” on Beijing. The Tory party, with a cross-party alliance on China, claimed the strategy is "full of contradictions, dual standards and inconsistencies", pointing out closer trade and economic links contradict the claim that China represents the “biggest state-based threat to the UK.” [Guardian][VOA] Richard McGregor in [Financial Times] describes Johnson’s review as “remarkably blunt”, warning the UK might be the next Australia if Britain sticks with its democratic partners while looking for a new market after Brexit.

In a latest development, the British government has imposed sanctions against four Chinese officials over their involvement in "appalling violations" of human rights against Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang. Sanctions have also been placed on the Security Bureau of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Public, a state-owned economic and paramilitary organization vested with administrative authority over several medium-sized cities as well as settlements and farms in Xinjiang and operating under direct control of the central government. [Sky News]

China-EU relations under stress: Sanctions over Xinjiang, warnings against Chinese vaccines and media operations provisions in investment pact

(zh) The European Union (EU) has imposed sanctions including travel bans and asset freezes on four Chinese officials and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Public Security Bureau for human rights abuses in Xinjiang. Among the sanctioned individuals is Chen Mingguo, the director of the Xinjiang Public Security Bureau, who is accused of “arbitrary detentions and degrading treatment inflicted upon Uighurs and people from other Muslim ethnic minorities, as well as systematic violations of their freedom of religion or belief”. It is the first time in more than three decades that the EU is placing sanctions on Beijing following the EU arms embargo in 1989 in the wake of the Tiananmen Square crackdown. While the sanctions are mainly symbolic, they signal a substantial hardening in the EU’s policy towards China.  [Reuters]

In retaliation, China announced sanctions on four entities and 10 Europeans including politicians and scholars, decrying the EU’s move as “based on nothing but lies and disinformation,” which “disregards and distorts facts,” and insisting it would not change its policies in Xinjiang. [Hong Kong Free Press]

In another blow to Sino-EU relations, European Council President Charles Michel slapped the “highly publicized” supply of COVID-19 vaccines from China and Russia, saying that “Europe would not use vaccines for propaganda purposes” and urged European countries not to “be misled by China and Russia, both regimes with less desirable values than ours, as they organize highly limited but widely publicized operations to supply vaccines to others.”

Furthermore, the EU-China investment pact, struck in December between EU and Chinese leaders and now awaiting approval from the European Parliament, has come under pressure as members of the European Parliament have criticized provisions in the deal marking a stark imbalance in rights between European and Chinese investors in the field of media and news operations. Critics argue that while China’s state-controlled CCTV channels are broadcast without hindrance across Europe, European broadcasters are facing restrictions in China, including foreign entertainment programs not being allowed to be shown between 7 pm and 10 pm without special approval and only Chinese cartoons being permitted to be shown between 5 pm and 10 pm. [Politico][VOA]

China-Australia relations: Parliament calls for re-considering port lease to Chinese company

(zh) An Australian parliamentary inquiry has urged the government to consider a revocation of the 99-year lease of the Port of Darwin to a Chinese company. The decision to lease the port in 2015 caused controversy since the port is also a base by the Australian and the US armed forces. A report by the parliament’s joint standing committee on trade and investment growth said the government should investigate whether the lease contravenes the new Foreign Relations Act, which was passed in December and allows the federal government to block international agreements made by universities, councils, and state governments on national security grounds. [South China Morning Post]

The inquiry comes amid the deteriorating relations between the two countries, with Beijing having imposed in trade restrictions on various Australian commodities worth 20 billion USD over the past year in response to a number of actions taken by the Australian government, including a push for an independent inquiry into the origins of the coronavirus. Earlier this month, Canberra announced that it would request the World Trade Organization (WTO) to establish a dispute settlement panel to investigate whether Beijing breaches free trade rules over its tariffs on Australia’s barley [AiR No. 11, March/2021, 3]. 

In a boost for Australia, the White House’s Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell said the US had told China it would not make any improvement in the bilateral relations while “a close and dear ally is being subjected to a form of economic coercion”, referring China’s trade war with Australia that now covers beef, barley, wine, and coal. In response, the Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne declared that Australia would not “trade away its democratic values to restart dialogue with China.”  [Reuters][Sydney Morning Herald]

China-Russia relations: Unity against US

(dql) In a joint statement of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, following the latter’s two-day visit to China this Monday and Tuesday, both called for a summit of the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council amid a “time of increasing global political turbulence,” to establish direct dialogue about ways to resolve humankind’s common problems in the interests of maintaining global stability.” Against the backdrop of sanctions of the West against both countries over Kreml critic Alexei Navalny and Hong Kong and Xinjiang respectively, the statement added that “[i]nterference in a sovereign nation’s internal affairs under the excuse of ‘advancing democracy’ is unacceptable.”

While the statement does not mention the US, Lavrov made in a press conference clear who was targeted as he lashed out against the US, highlighting “the destructive nature of U.S. intentions, relying on the military-political alliances of the Cold War era and creating new closed alliances in the same spirit, to undermine the U.N.-centered international legal architecture.” [Reuters] [Deutsche Welle]

To respond to sanctions of the West against their respective countries, Lavrov suggested a disentanglement from the US, as he called for “strengthening the self-reliance of the science and technology industry, [and] promoting settlement by local and other international currencies that can replace the US dollar so as to gradually move away from the Western-controlled international payment system.” [South China Morning Post]

Lavrov’s visit to China comes only a few days of the meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan on the one side and Chinese chief diplomat Yang Jiechi and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. He is scheduled to visit South Korea this Thursday, a week after Blinken and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met their South Korean counterparts in Seoul. 

France rebuffs China’s criticism over lawmaker’s Taiwan trip

(zh) China's ambassador in Paris Shaye Lu has angered Paris for issuing a statement expressing “serious concerns” about the plan of Alain Richard, France’s head of the Senate’s Taiwan Friendship Group, to visit Taiwan in summer, warning the trip would “cause unnecessary interference” in Franco-Chinese relation and send the wrong signal to Taiwan’s pro-independence forces. Richard was reported to be “very displeased” about Lu’s letter. “French parliamentarians freely decide their travel and their contacts,” said France’s foreign ministry.

In defense, China's embassy in Paris said Lu was "calm and firm", urging France to abide by the one-China principle. "French senators, as members of a French state institution, should, of course, observe this principle and refrain from any form of official contact with the Taiwanese authorities”. In the latest development, France’s foreign ministry summoned Lu over his “inadmissible” words against French officials and researchers and Beijing’s sanction over EU officials.

Richard has previously traveled to Taiwan in his existing role. This year's trip aims at studying the island's successful response to Covid-19. Taiwan's Premier Su Tseng-chang criticized Beijing's attempt to block exchange between France and Taiwan on Covid-19 only created a bad international impression of China and harm global efforts to fight against the pandemic. Taiwan's foreign minister Joseph Wu on the other hand said China's "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy is not acceptable to any civilized country. [Focus Taiwan][Reuters][South China Morning Post 1][South China Morning Post 2]

Japan-US relations: Allies agree on concerns over China

(dql/zh) U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and their Japanese counterparts – Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi – met last week for “two plus two” security talks in Tokyo. The visit to Japan marks the first overseas diplomatic journey for Blinken and Austin as representatives of the new Biden administration and is immediately followed by a visit to South Korea. After four years of relative U.S. inattention to its allies, US President Biden has pledged to rebuild ties with foreign friends, choosing two partners central to Washington’s challenges with a rising China and an increasingly nuclear North Korea. “It’s no accident we chose [South Korea] for the first cabinet-level overseas travel of the Biden-Harris administration, along with Japan,” Blinken remarked when he arrived in Seoul. [Wall Street Journal] [War on the Rocks]

During their meeting the Ministers exchanged and shared common concerns over a range of China’s policies and actions, made public in their joint statement, including human rights violations in Xinjiang, “unlawful maritime claims and activities in the South China Sea” and “unilateral action that seeks to change the status quo” over East China Sea islands disputed between China and Japan. They also agreed on the importance of “peace and stability” in the Taiwan Strait.

Further issues discussed at this meeting included cooperation in the areas of coronavirus pandemic and climate change, as well as the nuclear threat posed by North Korea and the situation in post-coup Myanmar. [Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan] [AP]

Coming just a few days before the meeting with Chinese senior foreign policy officials, the visit of Blinken and Austin to Japan and South Korea (see entry below) aims at solidifying the tripartite US-Japanese-South Korean alliance (despite frosty Tokyo-Seoul relations over wartime issues) as part of the global front of the US and its allies envisioned by US President Biden’s to confront China. Blinken reassured Japan of the US commitment to the alliance and vowed that the US “will push back if necessary, when China uses coercion or aggression to get its way.” [Reuters] [VoA]

China’s Foreign Ministry was quick to fiercely reject the Ministers’ joint statement on China “unlawful” claims in the South China Sea, calling it a “malicious attack on China’s foreign policy,” which “grossly interferes in China’s internal affairs, in an attempt to harm China’s interest.” Furthermore, it called Japan “a strategic vassal” of the US, while asserting China’s “indisputable sovereignty over the South China Sea and the adjacent waters.” [Reuters]

An opinion piece in [Foreign Policy] argues that as the strongest US ally in the region, rather than only name and shame, Japan could develop a “more ambitious and flexible toolkit” to address China’s human rights issues and defend liberal values.

South Korean and US Foreign and Defense Ministers meet for foreign policy talks

(nm) Last week, South Korea and the United States held their first foreign policy talks since President Biden took office as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III embarked on a two-day visit to South Korea. Both sides stressed the significance of their alliance for the entire region with Blinken calling it the “linchpin for peace, security, and prosperity for the Indo-Pacific region.”

Key topics included the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, cooperation between South Korea, the US, and Japan, as well as the transition of wartime operational control (OPCON). South Korean Minister of Defense, Suh Wook, said his ministry will push ahead to build a strong security relationship with Japan, a particularly notable statement considering current tensions between the two countries and the fact that South Korea seriously considered leaving an intelligence-sharing agreement with Japan only last year in protest of export curbs. The US and Korea’s defense ministers additionally agreed to continue joint efforts to transfer wartime operational control to Seoul, although the process might take longer than expected as full military tests are being delayed due to the pandemic. Although they are undergoing a conditions-based, rather than a times-based, transition, President Moon Jae-in hopes to regain military control before the end of his term in May 2022. [Yonhap] [Korea Herald 1]

Together with Moon they then went on to discuss North Korea’s denuclearization and cooperation to counter growing competition from China, albeit not agreeing on a joint rhetoric. While the United States seeks greater cooperation with its allies in the region, especially Japan and South Korea, to combat “unprecedented threats from China and North Korea,” South Korea’s Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong stated “It is unimaginable for us to pick either the US or China.” Seoul finds itself in a dilemma between reliance on the US to rein in aggression from North Korea, while maintaining strong economic ties with China. 

Concerning the growing nuclear threat from North Korea, both sides confirmed their commitment to a complete denuclearization of the peninsula. Blinken again stressed the importance of engaging with partners and allies, but also acknowledged that China “has a critical role to play” in any diplomatic effort with the North, considering that China is the chief financial and political benefactor of the isolated country. Moon is also keen on restarting dialogue between North Korea and the US but struggled to regain relevance in negotiations after the US and North Korea ended their engagement without an agreement in 2019. [Korea Herald 2] [The New York Times, $]

Kim Yo Jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, had however warned the US in Pyongyang’s first direct statement toward the Biden administration after the US-South Korea joint military drills, stating that Washington should refrain from “causing a stink” if it “wants to sleep in peace for coming four years.” She further opened the possibility for military provocation toward the South, declaring she had already reported the options for critical measures to Kim Yong Un. North Korea’s first vice foreign minister Choe Son Hui also said Pyongyang will ignore the US while it keeps its “hostile policy” in place, after Washington had tried to reach out to North Korea but received no response. [The Diplomat] [Korea Herald 3] [38 North]

Blinken also accused North Korea of committing “systematic and widespread abuse,” saying “We must stand with the people demanding their fundamental rights and freedoms and against those who repress them.” The South Korean government, on the other hand, showed itself more reluctant and refrained from calling out the North, stating “We have our concern for that matter but we have a lot to go over first,” and adding “We could see rights conditions improve there while we make progress on building peace on the Korean Peninsula.” [Korea Times] [Korea Herald 4]

After the high-level diplomatic meeting, National Assembly speaker Park Byeong-seug held a videoconference with US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Friday to discuss remaining issues, while the foreign ministry’s director general for North American affairs, Koh Yun-ju, and deputy US assistant secretary of state for Korea and Japan, Marc Knapper, launched a new regular working-level policy dialogue to discuss diplomatic and security issues. Blinken, for his part, travelled on to Alaska to meet with China’s top two diplomats on Thursday and Friday.[Korea Herald 5] [Korea Herald 6]

South Korea: Efforts to strengthen cooperation with the UAE, India, Russia, and LAC

(nm) South Korean Defense Minister Suh Wook is visiting the United Arab Emirates and India this week. Suh will visit the UAE from Monday to Wednesday to meet his counterpart Mohammed al-Bowardi and other key military officials, as well as to visit South Korea’s special warfare unit which is deployed in the UAE to support with building training programmes for the country’s special forces.   

From Thursday to Saturday he then visits India where he will meet his Indian counterpart Rajnath Singh to discuss cooperation on military technologies and to participate in the opening ceremony of the Korea-India Friendship Park that holds a monument commemorating those who have lost their lives during the 1950-53 Korean War. India provided the largest medical units to South Korea during the conflict. Some observers have speculated that the two countries will rather use the opportunity to address the US-led Quad alliance – a security alliance comprising the US, Australia, India, and Japan which as seen as opposition to China – after it had met virtually on March 12. [Korea Herald 1]

Meanwhile, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced he would visit Seoul this week for three days to meet with his South Korean counterpart, Chung Eui-yong, and to jointly celebrate the 30th anniversary of bilateral relations. While Russia and South Korea have maintained active relations in spite of the pandemic, the visit comes amid rising interest in the Korean Peninsula as the US Biden administration is seeking to revive multilateral discussions. [Korea Herald 2] [Korea Times]

Last week, Seoul also hosted the Korea-LAC Digital Cooperation Forum, LAC standing for Latin American and Caribbean countries. Officials from Colombia, Guatemala, Brazil, Honduras, and Costa Rica had come together to discuss ways how they could partner with Korea on digital technology. Chung also held separate meetings with Costa Rican Foreign Minister Rodolfo Solano who voiced hope for expanding bilateral trade and investment and with Guatemalan Foreign Minister Pedro Brolo Vila who similarly expressed expectations for expanding economic cooperation between South Korea and Central and South America in areas such as infrastructure, information and communications technology, as well as health care and medicine. Officials from Colombia met with President Moon Jae-in to discuss cooperation on environment and digital innovation, in addition to business opportunities for South Korean companies in Colombia. [Korea Herald 3] [Korea Herald 4]

North Korea severs diplomatic ties with Malaysia over extradition of national to US 

(nm) North Korea severed diplomatic ties with Malaysia last week after Malaysia’s highest court agreed to extradite a North Korean national to the United States, the first extradition of a North Korean to the US facing criminal trial. The extradition is seen as part of Washington’s bid to curb activities by North Korean businessmen and diplomats in conflict with UN sanctions that seek to restrain North Korea’s access to foreign currency which has been used to finance the country’s nuclear programme.   

Mun Chol-myong, who was arrested in Malaysia in 2019 after moving there in 2008, is accused of money laundering through front companies and violating international sanctions by helping ship prohibited luxury items from Singapore to Pyongyang, in violation of UN sanctions. Mun had rejected the accusations in his affidavit and claimed the extradition was “politically motivated” as his case got caught in diplomatic rivalry between Pyongyang and Washington. The court rejected his argumentation. 

Following the court’s decision, North Korea warned the US will “pay a due price” and denounced the country as the “backstage manipulator and main culprit of this incident.” Pyongyang further called its relations with Washington “the most hostile one on this planet,” adding the two countries have been practically at war for over 70 years. 

North Korea and Malaysia have since both expelled the respective ambassadors from their capitals. 

The fall out came just a day after North Korea had stated it would not respond to efforts by the new US administration to establish a channel of communication in order to negotiate the denuclearization of the North Korean peninsula. Washington and Pyongyang have been caught in deadlock ever since negotiations ended abruptly in 2019. 

Malaysian and North Korean relations have similarly suffered setbacks in recent years after Kim’s estranged half brother, Kim Jong-nam, was assassinated at Kuala Lumpur International Airport in 2017 using the internationally banned VX nerve agent. Although Malaysian officials have never officially accused Pyongyang of involvement, prosecutors made clear that they suspected a connection throughout the trial. North Korea has denied any involvement. [The Diplomat] [The New York Times, $] [Yonhap]

The New York Times also recently uncovered how one ship circumvents international sanctions and continues to illicitly import oil to North Korea. You can read the major takeaways of the investigation [here]. 

Taiwan: Military report prioritizes advancing far-strike capabilities against China

(dql) Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) has released its Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), revealing that it will focus on building Taiwan’s far-strike capabilities of its armed forces in the coming years, aiming at effectively extend its defense in depth to delay the advance of a potential Chinese invasion.

To strengthen far-strike capabilities, the report suggests continue ongoing efforts to build more long-distance air-launched missiles and remote-controlled precision weapon systems. It also announces to adopt a “resolute defense and multi-domain deterrence” tactic focusing on defending its forces and annihilating the enemy near the coastline preventing a landfall on the island, while recognizing the need for a high number of small, mobile, and stealthy asymmetric systems for strategic dispersion, taking advantage of the deployment of anti-ship missiles in coastal areas, rapid reaction forces and mine-laying at sea. [Focus Taiwan]

Meanwhile, Taiwanese troops from various units have been mobilized on this Monday to kick off field training exercises as part of the “Combat Preparedness Month,” which started on March 1 and is conducted in four stages, including battlefield scouting, tabletop exercises, field strategy and tactics, and field exercises.

The Combat Preparedness Month was suspended in the 1990s but resumed in 2019 in response to the increased nearby maneuvers of China’s military. [Taipei Times]

In the [Diplomat], Denny Roy warns that while “[p]rospects for an imminent Chinese invasion are overblown,” Taiwan must not be complacent and tackle the problem of limited military effectiveness caused by “unmet recruiting targets, insufficient training of both conscripts and reserves, and ammunition and spare parts shortages.”

Commander of the US Pacific Fleet Admiral John Aquilino, nominated to become commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, however, warned in his testimony before members of the Senate armed services committee that China’s threat to invade Taiwan is serious and more imminent than widely understood, disagreeing with outgoing Indo-Pacom commander Adm Philip Davidson who recently said that China’s attempt to attack and take over Taiwan could come as soon as within the next six years. [The Guardian]

Palau to maintain ties with Taiwan

(dql) In a diplomatic win for Taiwan, Palau’s President Surangel Whipps Jr., confirmed in an interview that he has notified Beijing that his country will maintain its relations with Taiwan, adding that “nobody should tell us that relationship should be severed." Whipps is scheduled to visit Taiwan this week.

Palau is among the four diplomatic allies of Taiwan in the Asia-Pacific region, next to the Marshall Islands, Nauru and Tuvalu. The total number of United Nations member states having full diplomatic relations with Taiwan stands 14, plus the Holy See. Since 2001, Beijing has lured 17 diplomatic allies away from Taiwan, including seven since President Tsai Ing-wen of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party took office 2016. [Focus Taiwan]

In a related development, both sides are discussing a travel bubble, with a first group of Taiwanese passengers expected to fly to Palau in April. [Taiwan News]

Bangladesh invites leaders of five nations to visit on Independence Day

(lm) Bangladesh on March 17 witnessed the inaugural session of a 10-day-long grand celebration in Dhaka commemorating the birth centenary of the country’s founding leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahmanand 50 years of independence from Pakistan. The South Asian nation had postponed the 100th birthday celebrations of its founding leader last year due to the looming pandemic. [Anadolu Agency]

Maldives President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih delivered a speech as a guest of honor, while Bangladesh’s President Hamid and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina also addressed the nation. Chinese President Xi Jinping, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga delivered recorded welcome speeches.

Heads of state from Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bhutan also attended the celebrations under separate schedules due to the coronavirus pandemic. All five South Asian leaders held talks with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, which yielded several bilateral memorandums of understanding (MoUs). [Daily Financial Times] [The Kathmandu Post] 

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be attending as chief guest at the concluding event on March 26, signifying the importance of the India−Bangladesh relationship, for it will be Modi’s first foreign visit since the outbreak of the pandemic. As to possible outcomes of the visit, attention is paid to the signing of a water-sharing agreement between Bangladesh and India for the Teesta River.

Dhaka has long been pressing New Delhi for signing off a deal on the sharing of Teesta River water. Negotiations were expedited in 2009 and, since 2011, have aimed at ensuring that the river would get the necessary water during the lean season to ensure a minimum level to help the agriculture sector of north Bangladesh. However, as India uses dams upstream to generate electricity and needs water to irrigate farms in West Bengal state, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has so far refused to sign off a respective agreement.

Last August, then, talks between Bangladesh and China on a loan deal to implement a proposed irrigation project on the Teesta River had entered an advanced stage, leaving flat India which had hitherto initiated a series of measures to regain long-standing good relations with its eastern neighbor [see AiR No. 34, August/2020, 4].

India, United States agree to strengthen defense ties, expand military engagement

(lm) US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and his Indian counterpart Rajnath Singh met in New Delhi on March 20 to discuss opportunities to elevate defense and military ties, at a time when Washington is keen for its partners in the region to deepen cooperation among themselves into “a network of overlapping relationships” not necessarily involving the US. Austin arrived in New Delhi late on March 19 and met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and National Security Advisor Ajjit Doval. [Channel NewsAsia] [The Straits Times 1]

The US Defense Secretary’s visit comes a week after the first virtual summit of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a loose strategic coalition seen as a potential counterweight to growing Chinese influence and alleged assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific [see AiR No. 11, March/2021, 3]. Prior to India, Austin and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Japan and South Korea, two other important partners in the region irked by Chinese activities. His three-day working visit to New Delhi marked the first by a top member of US President Joe Biden’s administration. [The Straits Times 2]

In keeping with their intention to strengthening bilateral defense ties, the two sides also discussed India’s plan to purchase 30 armed versions of the US-made MQ-9B Predator drones as well as a large order for over 150 combat jets for the Indian Air Force and the Navy to help narrow the gap with China [see AiR No. 11, March/2021, 3]. Bilateral defense trade increased from near zero in 2008 to $15 billion in 2019, notwithstanding Prime Minister Modi’s 'Make in India' strategy, which seeks to reduce India’s dependence on exports from countries like the US and China [see AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2].

Against the backdrop of its months-long border standoff with China along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), New Delhi drew even closer to Washington, a case in point being India’s announcement last October that it would sign on to the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), the last of the four foundational agreements that Washington maintains with its other close defense partners [see AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4].

Contentious issues also came up during discussions, after Austin was reportedly urged by a senior US senator to convey Washington’s opposition to India’s proposed purchase of the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system, which under US law can attract sanction. In fact, Washington last December imposed sanctions on Turkey for buying that equipment [see AiR No. 52, December/2020, 5]. [Reuters] [South China Morning Post]

India, Pakistan set for water-sharing talks, indicating larger diplomatic roadmap towards peace

(lm) India and Pakistan will hold the first meeting in three years of a bilateral commission created to implement and manage the goals and objectives and outlines of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) on March 23. At the forthcoming talks, the Pakistani side is likely to raise its objections regarding at least two Indian hydroelectric plants located at shared rivers. Islamabad is also expected to seek information on new projects planned by India on western rivers, and flood data arrangements for the flood season. [Hindustan Times] [The Straits Times]

The Permanent Indus Commission is supposed to meet at least once a year - alternately in India and Pakistan - under the IWT, which governs water usage on the Indus and its tributaries that flow through the two countries. Hence, the talks represent a thawing in bilateral ties, which have been frozen since the 2019 Pulwama suicide attacks that killed 40 Indian soldiers in the Indian-administered Kashmir town of Pulwama [see AiR (3/2/2019), AiR (4/2/2019)], and India’s decision later that year to strip the region’s constitutional autonomy in order to bring it into closer embrace [see AiR No. 32, August/2019, 1].

What is more, the reconvening of the Commission follows a rare military agreement this month to observe a ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC) – the de facto border that divides the disputed Kashmir valley between the two countries – and all other sectors [see AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1].

Coming like a bolt from the blue, the agreement had triggered speculations about the causes that lie behind it, with many observers suggesting that China or the United States had been the driving force. News reports published on March 22, however, claim that the India-Pakistan ceasefire marked the first milestone of a four-step “roadmap for peace” between the two South Asian neighbors, which was agreed upon during secret talks brokered by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that began months earlier.[Bloomberg] [The Hindu]

The next step in the process involves both sides reinstating envoys in New Delhi and Islamabad, who were pulled in 2019 after Pakistan protested against India’s move to unilaterally abrogate Article 370 of the Constitution, thereby breaking the Indian-administered part of Kashmir into two union territories. Then comes the hard part: talks on resuming trade and a lasting resolution on Kashmir, the subject of three wars since India and Pakistan became independent from Britain in 1947.

Several clues over the past few months pointed at the UAE’s role. In November, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar Jaishankar met with his counterpart from the UAE, Abdullah bin Zayid Al Nahyan, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan during a two-day working visit to Abu Dhabi. The trip was followed by a visit to Abu Dhabi from Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi the following month.

Roughly two weeks before the February 25 announcement, the UAE foreign minister held a phone call with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan “wherein they discussed regional and international issues of interest”. And just days before, India allowed the prime minister’s aircraft to fly over Indian airspace as he headed to Sri Lanka for a state visit – a practice suspended since the 2019 hostilities [see AiR No. 8, February/2021, 4].

British Prime Minister Johnson to visit India in April

(lm) British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is planning to visit India in April as part of the United Kingdom’s new 'Indo-Pacific tilt' strategy, the first major bilateral visit by a British prime minister since Theresa May toured Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa in August 2018. Johnson’s India trip was planned for January but postponed because of COVID-19 [see AiR No. 49, December/2020, 2]. [Financial Times]

While Johnson’s trip to New Delhi was initially being described as a post-Brexit tilt to the Indo-Pacific, it now has become part of a plan to transform the G7 group into a broader grouping of 10 leading democracies capable of challenging China and other authoritarian states. While the idea behind a ‘D-10’ is not a novel one, it has a new impetus amid the coronavirus pandemic, chiming with US President Joe Biden who wants democratic countries to co-operate to counter the Chinese ascendancy in technology — particularly the role of Huawei in 5G. [South China Morning Post]

Importantly, the United Kingdom published on March 16 its long-anticipated “Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy”, in which national security and international policy is articulated. Marking a significant step forward in the UK’s new life outside of the European Union, the Review describes London’s future relationship with the Middle East, North Africa, and explains an ‘Indo-Pacific tilt’. It is a more comprehensive and nuanced strategic framework than many of the exercises that have preceded it. [GOV.UK]

Britain’s intention to increase its presence in the Pacific was illustrated in December, when Johnson invited three Indo-Pacific countries to attend the G7 summit in Cornwall in June as guests — Australia, India and South Korea — a move that has caused raised eyebrows among some of the other attendees [see AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]. In January then, the UK applied to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), a free trade agreement between 11 countries around the Pacific Rim.

Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan inaugurates country’s first security dialogue

(lm) Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan inaugurated on March 17 the first security dialogue in Islamabad, saying that food security and climate change will be given the most importance. The Islamabad Security Dialogue is being organized by Pakistan’s National Security Division (NSD) in collaboration with its advisory board, comprising five leading think tanks of the country. The conference aims to define the country’s new strategic direction in line with the prime minister’s vision. [Dawn] [Geo TV]

Commenting on regional peace and stability, Khan called on India to move towards resolving the contentious territorial conflict over the Kashmir region. Further elaborating, Khan said India's decision to unilaterally end the constitutional autonomy of the Indian-administered territories [see AiR No. 32, August/2019, 1] was behind the breakdown of ties between the neighbors. Interestingly, the prime minister appeared to indicate that talks on Kashmir could pave the way for a discussion on trade-related issues between the two countries. [The Straits Times]

The following day, Pakistan’s Chief of the Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa called for the two arch-rivals to 'bury the past' and move towards cooperation, adding that the burden was on New Delhi to create a 'conducive environment'. He also said the United States had a role to play in ending regional conflicts. Timing and context of the remarks are noteworthy, considering that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin commenced a three-day working visit to New Delhi later that week [see AiR No. 11, March/2021, 3]. [The Straits Times 2]

The two nations recently adopted a softer tone. Military commanders from both sides in a rare joint statement announced on February 25 they had agreed to observe a ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC) – the de facto border that divides the disputed Kashmir valley between the two countries – and all other sectors. [AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1]

Looking at energy security next, the prime minister said that neighboring Iran had the capacity to meet Islamabad’s energy needs. In 1995, Pakistan, India, and Iran signed a deal conceived to deliver Iranian gas to India via Pakistan, but New Delhi withdrew from the agreement because of security issues and high costs. While the Iranian section of the pipeline was completed in 2011, Pakistan's energy ministry announced in 2019 that it could not continue with the project as long as Tehran was subject to US sanctions. [Middle East Monitor]

International Monetary Fund likely to resume Pakistan’s loan program

(lm) The IMF’s Executive Board is expected to meet on March 24 to approve Pakistan’s request for completion of the second of a total of four reviews and modify performance criteria as well as structural benchmarks both sides had agreed upon during a staff-level meeting in February [see AiR No. 8, February/2021, 4]. [The Express Tribune]

The executive board’s approval would pave the way for release of $500 million to Pakistan, the third loan tranche under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF), which should eventually bring Pakistan $6 billion. Pakistan entered the EFF in 2019, but the program was suspended last April after Islamabad had failed to meet all requirements [see AiR No. 14, April/2020, 1].

However, Prime Minister Imran Khan’s decision to delay some critical decisions pertaining to rationalizing expenditure, increasing electricity prices and tax revenue, among others, has not only significantly increased the workload of the key ministries involved in the program. More importantly, it has also led the government to shortening the legislative process by promulgating the proposed measures through presidential ordinances. [Dawn] [Daily Times]

There is a good case to believe that the defeat of incumbent Finance Minister Abdul Hafeez Sheikh in a crucial contest for the senate seat representing Islamabad has shaped the government’s perception. For Shaikh, who is a key member in charge of the government's economic policies and reforms plan under the IMF’s loan program, had to win a Parliament seat to continue as the finance minister after June 11. [AiR No. 10, March/2021, 2].

After inaugural Quad summit, France edges strategically closer to grouping

(lm) Consistent with its 2019 Indo-Pacific strategy to be an ‘inclusive, stabilizing mediating power’, France is stepping up its Indi-Pacific maritime involvement, and is set to participate in two naval exercises in the next month. An amphibious assault ship and a frigate begun a three-months deployment in the Pacific in February – an annual event since 2015 - and will cross the South China Sea twice. [The EurAsian Times] 

Both ships will be leading France’s maritime Exercise La Perouse, which is expected to take place at the start of April and will be attended by India, the United States, Japan and Australia – all member states of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad). After the first meeting of Quad leaders on the weekend, the countries reaffirmed their commitment to ensuring a ‘free and open’ Indo-Pacific. [Hindustan Times]

Later the same month, the French Navy’s Carrier Strike Group will be joining Indian naval forces to jointly conduct this year’s iteration of their Exercise Varuna in the strategically important Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Notably, the United Arab Emirates for the first time will be joining the drills.

Moreover, seven more Rafale fighter jets supplied by France are expected to be delivered next month, completing the first squadron comprising 18 French omni-role fighters. It is the fourth batch of aircraft arriving in India since the government’s purchase four years ago of a total of 36 planes worth $9.2 billion from French defense manufacturer Dassault Aviation. The delivery of all 36 Rafale aircrafts is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2021. [The Economic Times] [Mint]

India’s arms imports dip by 33 percent; Pakistan emerges a major importer

(lm) India’s arm imports have decreased by a whopping 33 percent in the second half of the decade, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), indicating that the country’s drive towards Atmanirbhar Bharat (‘self-reliant India) is showing first results. What is more, Pakistan has emerged as one of the largest arms importers in the Asia-Pacific during the same period, accounting for 2.7 percent of major defense imports globally. [The EurAsian Times]

The report on international arms transfers, which was published on March 15, attributed the drop in India’s arms imports mainly to an attempt to reduce dependence on Russia. In fact, arms exports by Moscow, which accounted for 20 percent of all exports of major arms between 2016 and 2020, dropped by 22 percent, according to the report. Importantly, the bulk - around 90 percent - of this decrease was attributable to a 53 percent fall in its arms exports to India. [Hindustan Times]

Pakistan, in turn, has imported about eight large arms or weapons systems from five different nations during 2016-20 with an aim to improve and enhance the capabilities of the Pakistani Air Force (PAF) and Navy. Notably, China accounts for about 74 percent of the country’s arms imports – up from 61 percent during the first half of the decade - followed by Russia and Italy, which account for 6.6 percent and 5.9 percent, respectfully.

India, Japan likely to abstain from UN HRC vote on Sri Lanka

(lm) India and Japan are likely to abstain from voting at the United Nations Human Rights Council (UN HRC) on March 23, which will take up a resolution over what is seen as deteriorating human rights conditions in Sri Lanka, India media have reported. Forty nations, mostly from Europe, have either become co-sponsor or additional sponsors of the pending resolution; 12 of these are currently members of the council and have voting rights. [The Citizen] [The Print]

On March 12, the so-called Core Group on Sri Lanka comprising the United Kingdom, Canada, Germany, North Macedonia and Montenegro had submitted the final version of its resolution. The resolution will be informed by a scathing report of the Office of the High Commissioner of Human Rights (OHCHR) Michelle Bachelet, which documents the alarming retrograde trends on human rights in Sri Lanka and notes that the steps taken by the current government are a “warning sign” of future violations [see AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1].

The zero draft which had earlier been circulated was further strengthened during the consultations between the member states. For a start, the changes in the final version inserts language calling on Sri Lanka to fulfil its commitment on devolution, including the holding of provincial council elections, as defined in the thirteenth amendment (13A).

The amendment is a product of the 1987 Indo-Sri Lanka Accord which sought to resolve the Sri Lankan Civil War (1983-2009) by creating provincial councils and enabling Sinhalese and Tamil as national languages while preserving English as the link language. New Delhi takes the view that a devolution of power to the Tamil-dominated Northern and Eastern Province is essential for ethnic reconciliation and lasting peace in the island nation. Thus, India has routinely urged Colombo to fully implement the amendment at various platform, most recently when Sri Lankan Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa visited New Delhi in February.

Moreover, the draft resolution notes the “persistent lack of accountability of domestic mechanisms” and calls to support trials in foreign countries. It also calls for strengthening the Office of the High Commissioner of Human Rights (OHCHR) in collecting and preserving evidence related to human rights violations in Sri Lanka, in order to use them in future accountability processes. Further, the draft has been revised to state that Sri Lanka would be featured on the UN HRC’s agenda every six months till September 2022. It also asks the OHCHR to give an oral update on Sri Lanka in September 2021, followed by a written report due in March 2022.

Anticipating a hostile resolution, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa previously wrote to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, among others, seeking support at the 47-member Council. To follow up on his letter, President Rajapaksa two weeks ago held a phone conversation with Modi but India – unlike China, Russia, and Pakistan – has not officially declared its support to Sri Lanka. [The Hindu] [The Wire]

Indian multinational conglomerate to develop Colombo Port WCT project

(lm) Indian multinational conglomerate Adani Group has been granted a 35-year operating concession to build and operate Colombo’s West Container Terminal (WCT), a third facility under the island nation’s South Harbor development program. Adani will hold a 51 percent controlling interest in the new terminal venture, with the remainder split between its local partner and the Sri Lanka Ports Authority (SLPA) in a yet-to-be-announced structure. [The Wire] [JOC.com]

The deal is said to be a government-to-government balancing act after Sri Lanka in February decided to undo a 2019 cooperation pact offering India and Japan the right to operate the long-stalled Colombo Port’s East Container Terminal (ETC), drawing strong protests from both New Delhi and Tokyo [see AiR No. 6, February/2021, 2]. India has an additional reason to seek a foothold in Colombo Port as approximately 70 percent of the throughput at Colombo port is accounted for by Indian transshipment.

Maldives president meets Emir of Qatar; first since reinstating diplomatic ties

(lm) Indicating a thaw in relations between the Maldives and Qatar, a high-level Maldivian delegation visited the Gulf nation on March 15 – the first since Malé’s decision in January to reinstate full diplomatic relations with Doha [see AiR No. 2, January/2021, 2]. During the working visit, Maldives President Ibrahim Mohammad Solih met with the Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani to discuss ways to enhance bilateral relations by strengthening economic cooperation.

Accusing Qatar of being too close to Iran and financing terrorist groups, in June 2017, Saudi Arabia and its allies, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Egypt had severed ties with Qatar and imposed a naval, air and land blockade on the country. In solidarity with the quartet, the Maldives had followed suit hours after the announcement, giving rise to rumors that the government under then President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom had been influenced by Riyadh.

China visas only to those Nepalis getting Chinese covid vaccine

(lm) In a bid to pressure the Nepali government into approving the Chinese-made Sinopharm vaccine, the Chinese embassy in Kathmandu has announced it would provide visa only to those who have been fully vaccinated with China-made COVID-19 vaccines. [Midday]

Though the Nepalese government in mid-February had approved the emergency use of a COVID-19 vaccine developed by an affiliate of China’s Sinopharm, a lack of proper documentation of trial results and logistic issues had prevented a rollout for larger public use.

Thus, the only vaccine cleared for public use is India’s Covishield (the local name for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine developed in the United Kingdom). Besides China’s Sinopharm two other vaccines – Russia’s Sputnik V and one made by India’s Bharat Biotech - are also awaiting clearance from Nepal’s drug regulator.

Nepal, which has reported just over 3,000 deaths from the pandemic, has attracted vaccine donations from China and India as the pair vie for influence in the country. It also received 348,000 doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine through the World Health Organization (WHO)’s COVAX vaccine-sharing scheme.

Cambodia, US to plead for end of deforestation

(nd) The US government urged the Cambodian government to stop deforestation and preserve biodiversity. In the Prey Lang Wildlife Sanctuary, five environmental activists were detained for documenting illegal logging in February this year, among them Ouch Leng, whose activism has also been honored by the Asia Society. The Sanctuary saw severe deforestation in 2016, after which it was classified it as a wildlife sanctuary.  USAID established the $21 million Greening Prey Lang project in 2018 to promote jobs, protect the sanctuary’s biodiversity and aid forest patrols. Still, forest is lost due to rising Chinese demand for luxury furniture and it is linked to factors like weak law enforcement and opaque governance systems. And USAID was criticized for collaborating with the Ministry of Environment, which is infamous for turning a blind eye on deforestation. The Prey Lang Community Network (PLCN) patrol group, was banned from entering the forest by Cambodian authorities last year for attempting to conduct a Buddhist tree blessing ceremony to protect the forest.

Deforestation does not only threaten biodiversity but has effects of increasing flooding and erosion in the Mekong River basin, and is linked to climate change due to tree’s ability to capture greenhouse gases, according to USAID. [Voice of America]

Singapore: Mutually recognized Covid-19 vaccination certificate 

(py) Recently, the foreign ministers of Singapore and New Zealand discussed the possibility of developing a mutual Covid-19 vaccination digital certificate. In February, Singapore announced that it had developed a globally interoperable standard for cross-border verification of health documents such as digital certificates using blockchain technology. Besides, in early March, Singapore Airlines was also the first airline to test the International Air Transport Association Travel pass, which is a mobile app to help airlines verify passengers’ Covid-19 test results and vaccines status. [Channel News Asia]

Furthermore, the Foreign minister of Singapore would also be making visits to three Southeast Asian countries, Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia and Indonesia. The minister expected to reaffirm ties and discuss post-Covid collaborations during his visit. The media doubted whether the visit was also to discuss a way to deescalate the situation in Myanmar after the Indonesian Prime Minister called for an end to the massacre under Military Junta and urged the Southeast Asian leaders to convene. [Yahoo News]

Philippines, France to develop partnership between their naval forces

(lepl) France committed to assist the Philippines in the training and project management required to create the latter’s submarine force. The French Navy and the Philippine Navy expect further ‘strategic partnerships’. [Manila Times]  Against the backdrop of tensions with China in the West Philippine Sea, and China’s unresponsiveness to President Rodrigo Duterte’s recent challenges to the Visiting Forces Agreement with the US, Philippines seeks lesser dependence on these two powers. This pursuit is notorious as the Philippines secures Indian-Russian missiles, envisions new defense industrial economic zones, promises to upgrade its naval fleet. [Manila Bulletin 1] [Manila Bulletin 2] 

Philippines: Stand-off over South China Sea reef

(nd) On Sunday, Philippine Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana demanded about 200 Chinese vessels, presumably militia boats, to leave the Whitsun Reef, which is claimed by both the Philippines and China, and also Vietnam. The Philippines considers it part of their exclusive economic zone. China ignored the call, insisting it owns the territory. The US has backed the Philippines and expressed concerns over the presence of the boats in the disputed waters, accusing China of using “maritime militia to intimidate, provoke, and threaten other nations, which undermines peace and security”. Tension is the waters are on the rise, with a recent Chinese law passed, allowing Chinese coast guard to open fire on foreign vessels. 

President Rodrigo Duterte has had friendly ties with China since taking office in 2016, but in 2020 unexpectedly referred to an international arbitration ruling invalidating China’s historic claims to the entire sea. China has invested in infrastructure funds and trade in the Philippines and has recently donated Covid-19 vaccines amid an alarming spike in coronavirus infections. [South China Morning Post]

Philippines: Abu Sayyaf hostage rescued; leader captured

(nd) Philippine troops rescued a 15-year-old Indonesian national held by Abu Sayyaf since January 2020. In the operation, security forces also captured the group’s leader, Majan Sahijuan. The teenager was the last missing of five Indonesians kidnapped on January 16, 2020 in waters off Lahad Datu, in the Malaysian Borneo state of Sabah, working for a Malaysian fishing firm. [Benar News]

Singapore, UAE to strengthen bilateral economic ties

(nd) Singapore and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have announced to strengthen their bilateral economic ties, including partnerships in technology, innovation, artificial intelligence (AI), space technologies and the public sector. Their first bilateral forum was held in 2007. UAE remains Singapore's largest trading partner and investment destination in the region region, with bilateral trade of about $12.8 billion last year. [Straits Times]

Announcements

Upcoming Online Events 

23 March 2021 @ 8.00 a.m. (GMT-5), Inter-American Dialogue, United States

ONLINE EVENT: Prospects for Brazil-Japan-US Cooperation in a Shifting International Political Environment

This event is the sixth in a series of public meetings co-organized by the Japan Association of Latin America and the Caribbean (JALAC) and the Inter-American Dialogue. The panel of esteemed speakers will consider the possibilities for enhanced, near-term collective and coordinated action by the governments and private sectors of Brazil, Japan, and the United States.

For more information please visit [Inter-American Dialogue].

23 March 2021 @ 4 p.m. (GMT+5:30), International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), United Kingdom

India−Bangladesh relations: prospects and challenges

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Bangladesh on 26−27 March 2021 will be his first foreign visit since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, signifying the importance of the India−Bangladesh relationship. What have been the key challenges in the India−Bangladesh relationship, and how have these been overcome? What are the lessons for the rest of South Asia? And what are the prospects for bilateral cooperation?

For more information please visit [IISS]

23 March 2021 @ 8.00 a.m. (GMT-5), Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, United States

The Importance of the Rules Based Order to Maintain Peace and Security in the Indo-Pacific

Please join the Future of Diplomacy Project's Fisher Family Fellow, Former Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop for a virtual study group to explore whether the rules-based international order developed since WWII can continue to regulate relations between nation states, including disputes, so that it does not descend into military conflict.

For more information please visit [Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs]

24 March 2021 @ 11.00 a.m. (GMT-4), The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), United States

How China Loses: The Pushback Against Chinese Global Ambitions

In an era of U.S.-China strategic competition, how will China’s relations with the rest of the world shape its future power? Drawing on travels in East Africa, Latin America, Europe, and East Asia, Luke Patey will discuss his new book, How China Loses: The Pushback Against Chinese Global Ambitions. GMF's Asia Program senior fellow Mareike Ohlberg will host the discussion.

For more information please visit [GMF].

24 March 2021 @ 10.00 a.m. (GMT-4), Stimson Center, United States

Blinken’s Asia Trip: What’s Next With North Korea?

Join us as policy experts analyze Secretary Blinken’s recent trip to Asia and how his comments illuminate Biden’s North Korea policy and what that might mean for US-DPRK relations.

For more information please visit [Stimson Center].

24 March 2021 @ 9.30 a.m. (GMT-4), Royal United Services Institute, United Kingdom

Combat Air Power 2021: Competing Visions for the Future

This event will shed light on the different emerging visions of future combat air within the NATO alliance, in light of the roles of Russia and China.

For more information and registration, please visit the website [RUSI].

24 March 2021 @ 11.00 a.m. (GMT-4), United States Institute of Peace, United States

Peacebuilding on the Korean Peninsula: U.S. and European Perspectives

This panel discussion will highlight US and European perspectives on achieving peace and reconciliation on the Korean Peninsula and analyze whether processes in other regions provide any helpful lessons.

For more information and registration, please visit the website [USIP].

24 March 2021 @ 9.30 a.m. (GMT-4), Royal United Services Institute, United Kingdom

Combat Air Power 2021: Competing Visions for the Future

This event will shed light on the different emerging visions of future combat air within the NATO alliance, in light of the roles of Russia and China.

For more information and registration, please visit the website [RUSI]

24 March 2021 @ noon (GMT-4), Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, United States

The Universal Museum through a Middle Eastern Lens

This event features a conversation between James Snyder, HKS/MEI Senior Fellow, and Manuel Rabate, Director of the Louvre Abu Dhabi, in continuation of the fall 2020 MEI series on art, culture, politics, and the possibilities for transcending conflict through cultural connection in the modern Middle East.

For more information and registration, please visit the website [Belfer Center]

24 March 2021 @ 11.00 a.m. (GMT-4), United States Institute of Peace, United States

Peacebuilding on the Korean Peninsula: U.S. and European Perspectives

This panel discussion will highlight US and European perspectives on achieving peace and reconciliation on the Korean Peninsula and analyze whether processes in other regions provide any helpful lessons.

For more information and registration, please visit the website [USIP]

24 March 2021 @ 10.00 a.m. (GMT-4), Center for Strategic and International Studies, United States

Fortifying Power Africa: Recommendations to Advance Core Economic, Development, and National Security Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa

This event will discuss key findings and recommendations from the report led by the Energy for Growth Hub, which evaluates the potential of Power Africa, an interagency initiative coordinated by the US Agency for International Development (USAID), for the Biden administration to tackle poverty and address some of its foreign policy and development goals.

For more information and registration, please visit the website [CSIS]

24 March 2021 @ 2 p.m. (GMT-4), American Enterprise Institute, United States

The Biden stimulus, the Federal Reserve, and the everything bubble

Amid unprecedented governmental spending in order to mitigate repercussions of the Covid-19 pandemic, this event the inflation and financial market risks of the current stance of US fiscal and monetary policy, with a special focus on President Joe Biden’s stimulus plan and central bank responses.

For more information and registration, please visit the website [AEI]

25 March 2021 @ 11.00 a.m. (GMT-4), Foreign Policy Research Institute, United States

FPRI Special Briefing: U.S. Sanctions Against Russia

This event will highlight the repercussion of the latest rounds of sanctions by the US against Russia, how the actors responded and what the sanctions means for US-Russian relations.

For more information and registration, please visit the website [FPRI]

25 March 2021 @ 7.00 a.m. (GMT-4), Center for Global Development, United States

What is the Role of Aid to Middle-Income Countries? A View from China

The Center for Global Development (CGD) is hosting this panel discussion on what is the Role of Aid in Middle-Income Countries? The discussion will consider China’s role as a donor and analyze its strategic considerations.

For more information and registration, please visit the website [CGDEV]

25 March 2021 @ 9.30 a.m. (GMT-4), Center for Strategic and International Studies, United States

Evolution of Russian Cyber Tactics and Operations

This event will discuss the evolution of Russian cyber strategies, operations and tactics with a focus on innovative recommendations for US and NATO cyber strategy. 

For more information and registration, please visit the website [CSIS]

25 March 2021 @ noon (GMT-4), Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, United States

Adaptive Leadership and Climate Action

This event features a conversation with two HKS alums working to solve the climate crisis in Brazil and the US. 

For more information and registration, please visit the website [Belfer Center]

25 March 2021 @ 12:15 p.m. (GMT-4), Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, United States

From the Siege of Sinjar to the Battle for Baghuz: The Syrian Kurds, the United States, and Their Shared Fight Against ISIS

This event sheds light on the relations between the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and their affiliated People's Protection Units (YPG) and the SDF, including a presentation on the history of the Syrian Kurds, and their place within the Syrian civil war.

For more information and registration, please visit the website [Belfer Center]

25 March 2021 @ 2:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, United States

Niall Ferguson – Cold War 2.0?

This event will discuss repercussions of a rapidly rising China. 

For more information and registration, please visit the website [Belfer Center]

25 March 2021 @ 6:00 p.m. (GMT-4), Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, United States

Leadership Lessons in the Fight Against Corruption in Colombia: A Conversation with Fernando Carrillo

This event features a discussion with Mr. Fernando Carrillo, former Inspector-Attorney General of Colombia from 2017-2021, about leadership in the fight against corruption and guaranteeing constitutional rights.

For more information and registration, please visit the website [Belfer Center]

25 March 2021 @ 11 a.m. (GMT-4), American Enterprise Institute, United States

Does Congress still control the power of the purse?

While the Constitution provides Congress with the authority to raise government revenues and decide on spending, today’s Congress seems to lose its grip on the power of the purse with delegation from legislators to the executive. This panel discussion will debate how Congress can regain control over the nation’s finances and strengthen representative government.

For more information and registration, please visit the website [AEI]

25 March 2021 @ 9:00 a.m. (GMT+1), European Council on Foreign Relations, France     

Towards a European Indo-Pacific strategy 

In this panel, experts will outline regional expectations towards Europe from an Indo-Pacific perspective by partners such as India, Japan, and Australia, while trying to formulate a pan-European approach to the Indo-Pacific, taking into account Europe’s own approach to multilateralism, the rule of law, and sovereignty. 

If you wish to join this event, please visit [ECFR] for more information and mandatory registration. 

25 March 2021 @ 3:00 p.m. (GMT+1), Italian Institute for International Political Science, Italy

Lebanon, the never-ending crisis

Against the backdrop of Lebanon’s political and economic crisis, as well as its struggle to handle the Covid-19 outbreak, this webinar asks: Can Lebanon find a way out of the impasse? Which kind of consequences will the current social fracture have for the future of the country? How can the international community support a meaningful process of reform? 

For more information and registration, please see [ISPI]. 

25 March 2021 @ 10:00 a.m. - 11:30 a.m. (GMT-5), Middle East Institute, United States

Lebanon’s Financial Meltdown and the Prospects for Recovery

Lebanon’s financial and socio-economic crises have been unfolding for nearly 18 months. Where does Lebanon stand today, a year after the first sovereign debt default in its history? How did we even get here? What are immediate monetary and fiscal policy priorities to course-correct? What social policies and programs are needed in the immediate term? What can still be saved? Find answers to these question at this webinar. 

For events details are available at [MEI].

25 March 2021 @ 2:15 p.m. (GMT+9), Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan     

Zero Waste Solutions towards a Regenerative Asia-Pacific Region 

With the goal of moving to a waste-reducing closed-loop economy that fosters sustainable and resilient societies upon recovering from the global pandemic, this event tries to discuss how to implement zero waste cities, policies, and strategies through peer learning, as well as opportunities to strengthen relations from local to global actors. 

For more information, please see [IGES].

25 March 2021 @ 3:00 p.m. (GMT+1), Egmont Institute, Belgium     

Temporary Protection Statute for Venezuelan Migrants in Colombia: A New Regional and Global Model for Migration Policy?

With its recently implemented Temporary Protection Statute for Migrants Colombia aims to facilitate the transition of almost 1 million undocumented migrants from a temporary legal status to an ordinary migratory regime, as the country seeks ways to protect Venezuelans fleeing their country. This webinar brings together policy experts and officials to discuss if and how this could be a game-changer in regional and global migration policies. 

If you are interested in this event, please visit [Egmont] for more information and registration. 

25 March 2021 @ 11.00 a.m. (GMT-4), Foreign Policy Research Institute, United States

FPRI Special Briefing: U.S. Sanctions Against Russia

This event will highlight the repercussion of the latest rounds of sanctions by the US against Russia, how the actors responded and what the sanctions means for US-Russian relations.

For more information and registration, please visit the website [FPRI].

25 March 2021 @ 7.00 a.m. (GMT-4), Center for Global Development, United States

What is the Role of Aid to Middle-Income Countries? A View from China

The Center for Global Development (CGD) is hosting this panel discussion on what is the Role of Aid in Middle-Income Countries? The discussion will consider China’s role as a donor and analyze its strategic considerations.

For more information and registration, please visit the website [CGDEV].

25 March 2021 @ 9.30 a.m. (GMT-4), Center for Strategic and International Studies, United States

Evolution of Russian Cyber Tactics and Operations

This event will discuss the evolution of Russian cyber strategies, operations and tactics with a focus on innovative recommendations for US and NATO cyber strategy. 

For more information and registration, please visit the website [CSIS].

25 March 2021 @ noon (GMT-4), Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, United States

Adaptive Leadership and Climate Action

This event features a conversation with two HKS alums working to solve the climate crisis in Brazil and the US. 

For more information and registration, please visit the website [Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs].

26 March 2021 @ 11 a.m. (GMT-4), Center for Strategic and International Studies, United States

Rethinking the Role of Remotely Crewed Systems in the Future Force

In a conversation with Todd Harrison, director of the Aerospace Security Project and Defense Budget Analysis at CSIS, this event will present the findings of his recent report on the subject and discuss the future application of remotely crewed systems.

For more information and registration, please visit the website [CSIS].

26 March 2021 @ 10 a.m. (GMT-4), American Enterprise Institute, United States

The Last Shah’: A book event with Ray Takeyh

This panel discussion will be about Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and the history of US-Iran relations, following the release of Ray Takeyh’s book “The Last Shah: America, Iran, and the Fall of the Pahlavi Dynasty” (Yale University Press, 2021).

For more information and registration, please visit the website [AEI].

26 March 2021 @ 10.00 a.m. (GMT+8), East Asian Institute, Singapore

Techno-nationalism and Technology Competition

China has emerged as a technology leader in several critical technologies, and the recently approved 14th Five-Year Plan is set to reinforce the country’s research and development. The drive for “indigenous innovation” comes in part as a response to the growing restrictions the United States has imposed on technology exports to China. As the companies in the two countries vie for market share around the world, what should governments do, promote them, or rein them in? What explains each country’s respective advantages and disadvantages? This lecture will take a deep dive into China’s techno-nationalism, its chances of success and consequences for the rest of the world.

For more information please visit [East Asian Institute].

26 March 2021 @ 11 a.m. (GMT-4), Center for Strategic and International Studies, United States

Rethinking the Role of Remotely Crewed Systems in the Future Force

In a conversation with Todd Harrison, director of the Aerospace Security Project and Defense Budget Analysis at CSIS, this event will present the findings of his recent report on the subject and discuss the future application of remotely crewed systems.

For more information and registration, please visit the website [CSIS]

26 March 2021 @ 10:00 a.m. (GMT-4), Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, United States

Africa and the Atom: Rethinking African Agency in the Global Nuclear Order

This event will shed light on the multitude of politics and perspectives on nuclear energy and weapons within Africa. 

For more information and registration, please visit the website [Belfer Center]

29 March 2021 @ 10:00 a.m. (GMT-4), American Enterprise Institute, United States

Free speech in the digital age: Assessing the values and consequences of free expression

This panel discussion will navigate the space that is left for free speech amid efforts to control social media platforms and will touch on laws and civil rights, commercial control of speech, and the effects of speech controls on human development and social vigor.

For more information and registration, please visit the website [AEI].

29 March 2021 @ noon (GMT-4), Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, United States

Energy Policy Seminar: Alice Hill on "Lessons from the Pandemic on How to Prepare for Climate Change"

This seminar will discuss "Lessons from the Pandemic on How to Prepare for Climate Change."

For more information and registration, please visit the website [Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs].

29 March 2021 @ 2.50 p.m. (GMT+9), Asian Development Bank Institute, Japan

Book Launch: Developing Infrastructure in Central Asia: Impacts and Financing Mechanisms

This event will discuss key takeaways from the book “Developing Infrastructure in Central Asia: Impacts and Financing Mechanisms”, with a special focus on spillover effects and financing of infrastructure development in Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Pakistan, the People’s Republic of China, and Tajikistan.

For more information and registration, please visit the website [ADB].

29 March 2021 @ 11.00 a.m. (GMT-4), United States Institute of Peace, United States

Empowered Women Help Create a More Peaceful World: How the U.S. Government Can Leverage the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) Agenda to Advance Gender Equality and Promote Peace

The US Women, Peace and Security (WPS) Act of 2017 aims to help transform government structures to support women’s leadership and meaningful engagement in ending conflict and creating sustainable peace. This panel will discuss WPS and identify how the US government can engage better with civil society organizations.

For more information and registration, please visit the website [USIP]

29 March 2021 @ noon (GMT-4), Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, United States

Defense Project Series: Should Women be in the Draft? A discussion about the future of the Selective Service in America

This event will discuss whether women should be required to sign up for the Selective Service.

For more information and registration, please visit the website [Belfer Center]

29 March 2021 @ noon (GMT-4), Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, United States

Strengthening the U.S.-Brazil Relationship: A Conversation with Nestor Forster Jr., Ambassador of Brazil to the US

This event features a conversation with Nestor Forster Jr., Ambassador of Brazil to the US, about the bilateral relationship between Brazil and the United States. 

For more information and registration, please visit the website [Belfer Center]

30 March 2021 @ 16.00 p.m. (GMT+9), Asian Development Bank Institute, Japan

Virtual Conference on Fintech and COVID-19

This event will explore the impact of fintech, analyze financial stability risks to understand the role they can play in consolidating vulnerable households and MSMEs amid the Covid-19 pandemic

For more information and registration, please visit the website [ADB]

30 March 2021 @ 9.00 a.m. (GMT-4), Center for Global Development, United States

In conversation with the EBRD President: Multilateralism, the 30-year Milestone of the Bank and its Plans for the Decades Ahead

In a conversation with Odile Renaud-Basso, first female President of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), this event will discuss the Bank’s new five-year strategy, the road ahead for the COVID-19 recovery and its agenda on greening the economy, promoting equality of opportunity and advancing the digital transformation. 

For more information and registration, please visit the website [CGDEV]

30 March 2021 @ 11.00 a.m. (GMT-4), Foreign Policy Research Institute, United States

FRPI Special Event: An Update on the Ethiopia-Tigray Crisis

This moderated discussion will shed light on the recent hostilities between Ethiopia and its northern Tigray region, which have escalated into a full-scale humanitarian crisis. 

For more information and registration, please visit the website [FPRI]

30 March 2021 @ 10.00 a.m. (GMT-5), Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, United States

The Future of Green India: Energy and Climate Change

India is a vital player in global efforts to deploy clean energy and address climate change – while at the same time widening energy access and fostering economic growth. Expert speakers will consider India’s energy transition and approaches to climate-change policy – both domestically and in collaboration with the global community.

For more information please visit [Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs].

30 March 2021 @ noon (GMT-4), The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), United States

Sanctions and Tools of Economic Statecraft: Getting Allies' Act Together

The Biden administration has shown itself ready and willing to use sanctions as a tool of foreign policy, already having enacted a robust package of sanctions against Russia for its treatment of Alexei Navalny. The EU, for its part, recently passed a new human rights sanctions regime with which it hopes to better punish countries for human rights abuses. Panelists will discuss how these developments are likely to impact U.S. and European sanctions policy going forward, as well as the prospects for allied coordination of sanctions.

For more information pleases visit [GMF].

30 March 2021 @ 12:00 p.m. (GMT-5), Hudson Institute, United States        

Confronting a New Era of Global Threats: A Conversation with US Senator John Cornyn 

Republican US Senator John Cornyn of Texas and Institute Senior Fellow Tim Morrison will discuss the evolving global threat landscape and how the US can remain competitive, taking particular account of nuclear arms control and competition with China’s semiconductor industry. 

For more information, see [Hudson Institute]. 

30 March 2021 @ 12:00 pm (GMT-5), Hudson Institute, United States        

Securing US-Japan Supply Chains After the Pandemic 

The pandemic and subsequent recession have revealed fragilities in global supply chains and shocked demand for goods and services. Consequently, both the US and Japan have taken steps to strengthen critical industries and diversify their supply networks, e.g. in the semiconductor industry. This leaves us asking: What steps are being taken to secure US-Japan supply chains and how can both governments build supply chain resiliency? 

Please visit [Hudson Institute] for more information. 

30 March 2021 @ 2:00 p.m. (GMT-1), Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, Norway      

Evolving expectations: How state-owned extractive companies are tackling transparency

This webinar will take a closer look at state-owned enterprises (SOEs), exploring what citizens and government shareholders should expect from them in light of Covid-19 recovery plans and the energy transition, taking into account transparency efforts as well as significant corruption challenges. Panelists will also discuss how improvements in SOE transparency can mitigate corruption risks.

For more information, please visit [EITI]. 

30 March 2021 @ 10:00 a.m. (GMT+9), Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Japan       

Japan – Europe Security Cooperation from U.S. Perspectives 

Considering that European countries are expanding their presence in and cooperation with the Indo-Pacific region in recent years, while the US Biden administration simultaneously seeks to strengthen ties with its allies, this webinar will take a closer look at the implications of deepened relations between Europe and Japan, two of the United States’ most reliable allies. 

Please visit [SPF] for more information and mandatory registration. 

31 March 2021 @ 3:30 p.m. (GMT-1), Clingendael, the Netherlands     

Digital Dialogue: Serbia on a wobbly road to EU Membership 

In co-operation with the Embassy of the Republic of Serbia, this webinar will try to evaluate if and how the EU and Serbia can re-strengthen their relationship and how accession talks can regain momentum in 2021, as political doubts about the partnership remain. 

Please visit [Clingendael] for more information. 

31 March 2021 @ 4:30 p.m. (GMT-1), The Swedish Institute of International Affairs, Sweden      

How to make sense of religion in foreign policy – secular orders and religious states 

Trying to counter the common misconceptions that first, Western states have become more secular and second, that foreign policy is separate from domestic social developments, this webinar seeks to evaluate the role of religion in foreign policy, looking at the United States, Iran, and the European Union. 

If you are interested in joining this webinar, please visit [UI]. 

Recent book releases 

Josh Rogin, Chaos under Heaven, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 384 pages, March 9, 2021, reviewed in [The Guardian].

David Stasavage, The Decline and Rise of Democracy: A Global History from Antiquity to Today, Princeton University Press, 424 pages, July 1, 202, reviewed in [eScholarship].

Anne Applebaum, Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism, Random House, 400 pages, August 4, 2020, reviewed in [The Berkshire Edge].

Calls

The National Changhua University of Education invites to submit paper for its Eighteenth International Conference on "Technology, Knowledge, and Society" to held 15-16 April 2022 in Changhua City, Taiwan. Closing day for submissions is 15 March 2022. For more details, see [TechandSoc].

The Cogut Institute for the Humanities of Brown University has opened the call for papers for its Spring 2022 Conference, scheduled for 25-26 February 2022. Submission deadline is before 15 June 2021. Find more information at [Brown University].

The Institute for the Study of the Asia Pacific invites to submit papers for its 2022 Annual International Conference on "Korean Politics and International Relations at Crossroads: Past, Present, and the Future" to be held on 7-8 January 2022. Submission deadline is 20 April 2021. More at [Isapuclan].

Jobs & positions

The Australian National University is hiring a lecturer in Criminology. Closing date for applications is 26 March 2021. Find more details at [ANU].

The Department of Sociology of Hong Kong University is recruiting a lecturer to undertake substantial teaching responsibilities at undergraduate and postgraduate levels, and supervise students. Applications can be submitted until 3 May 2021. Further details are available at [HKU].

The International Organization for Migration is seeking to hire a Senior Regional Labour Mobility and Human Development Specialist at its duty station in Bangkok. Deadline for applications is 1 April 2021. More about the vacancy at [IOM].

We would greatly appreciate your feedback! Please send any feedback you have regarding this newsletter to: info@cpg-online.de 

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