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June 15, 2020 - Brief Issue 60

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

New Study Finds Face Masks May Be "Central Variable” to Reducing Spread of Coronavirus (Health & Science)

22 U.S. States Grapple With Rising Coronavirus Cases While Reopening Economies (Health & Science)

Vaccines: Sinovac’s Candidate Elicited Neutralizing Antibodies in “Above 90%” of Vaccinated Subjects in Phase II Trial; AstraZeneca Signs Contract to Supply EU Countries with Oxford Candidate; Moderna’s Candidate “Completely Protected” Mice Against Coronavirus in Lungs, Reports Preprint; As First Vaccines Enter Large Phase III Trials, “Operation Warp Speed” and WHO Must Design Trials that Can Test Populations Where Infections are Surging (Health & Science)

Mice Successfully Infected With SARS-CoV-2 via “Shortcut” Technique With Adenoviruses Can Help Speed Study of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 (Health & Science)

Gaps in Coronavirus Test Data “Disguise the Full Impact of the Coronavirus on Minority Populations” (Health & Science)

Latin American Countries Start Production on Coronavirus Vaccine Candidates (Health & Science)

International Monetary Fund: Bleaker Predictions to Come for 2020 Global Economic Forecast (Around the World)

Beijing Goes into Lockdown After New Virus Outbreak (Around the World)

Pakistan’s Planning Minister: Coronavirus Cases Could Rise to 300,000 by the End of June and Over One Million in July (Around the World)

In New Delhi Region 500 Train Carriages, 40 Hotels, 77 Banquet Halls to be Converted into Makeshift Hospitals for COVID-19 Patients (Around the World)

France Accelerates Loosening of Lockdown (Around the World)

British PM Reviewing U.K.’s “Two-Metre Social Distancing Rule” (Around the World)

Iran Reports Highest Death Toll in 2 Months (Around the World)

Saudi Government Launches Contact Tracing App, International Flights to Saudi Arabia Remain Suspended, Yemen and the Philippines Close Diplomatic Missions in Saudi Arabia (Around the World)

WSJ: New York Coronavirus Response Worsened Pandemic (U.S. Government & Politics)

White House Trade Adviser: Trump Wants Next Stimulus to be in $2 Trillion Range (U.S. Government & Politics)

Trump Rally in Oklahoma Risks Coronavirus Transmission (U.S. Government & Politics)

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Improves in Early June (U.S. Economy)

White House Won't Extend Expanded Unemployment Benefits Past July Says Economic Adviser (U.S. Economy)

Mass Eviction Crisis Faces Black, Latino Communities as Moratorium Set to Expire on July 31 (U.S. Society)

NYC Subway Ridership Surges 25% (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 2,094,069 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 115,732 people have died from COVID-19  (Johns Hopkins). Around 561,000 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 23,535,104 tests. Worldwide, there have been 7,930,989 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 433,783 deaths. At least 3,786,462 people have recovered from the virus.

New Study Finds Face Masks May Be “Central Variable” to Reducing Spread of Coronavirus

A new study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) found that “wearing a face mask may be the central variable that determines the spread of the [coronavirus],” reports Forbes. The researchers from Texas A&M University, The University of Texas at Austin, California Institute of Technology, and University of California San Diego “quantified the effects of face covering by projecting the number of infections based on the data prior to implementing the use of face masks in Italy on April 6 and NYC on April 17” and found that face masks reduced infections in Italy between April 6 through May 9 by over 78,000 and in New York City between April 17 through May 9 by over 66,000 (PNAS). Further, the paper notes, “The inability of social distancing, quarantine, and isolation alone to curb the spread of COVID-19 is also evident from the linearity of the infection curve prior to the onset of the face-covering rule in Italy on April 6 and in NYC on April 17.” Between March 1 through May 9, the researchers found that there was a sharp increase in cases in the United States and New York City in late March to early April, but a slower increase after stay-at-home orders began. In summary, “With social distancing, quarantine, and isolation in place worldwide and in the United States since the beginning of April, airborne transmission represents the only viable route for spreading the disease, when mandated face covering is not implemented…Hence, the unique function of face covering to block atomization and inhalation of virus-bearing aerosols accounts for the significantly reduced infections in China, Italy, and NYC, indicating that airborne transmission of COVID-19 represents the dominant route for infection.” This paper reiterates what other research has indicated regarding the ability of aerosolized particles to dissolve or disperse outdoors, making transmission less likely. However, the researchers note that “virus accumulation still occurs due to stagnation under polluted urban conditions.” According to one of the research authors, Mario Molina, “Our study establishes very clearly that using a face mask is not only useful to prevent infected coughing droplets from reaching uninfected persons, but is also crucial for these uninfected persons to avoid breathing the minute atmospheric particles (aerosols) that infected people emit when talking and that can remain in the atmosphere tens of minutes and can travel tens of feet” (Forbes). Bonus Read: “Masks Help Stop The Spread Of Coronavirus, Studies Say—But Wearing Them Still A Political Issue” (Forbes).

22 U.S. States Grapple With Rising Coronavirus Cases While Reopening Economies

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a new set of state coronavirus forecasts on Friday, indicating several states will have new mortality numbers that will “likely exceed the number reported over the last four weeks.” Those states include Arizona, Arkansas, Hawaii, North Carolina, Utah, and Vermont (CDC). As of Saturday, 22 U.S. states still have increasing coronavirus cases (NYT). The New York Times reports that “Most of the 10 hardest-hit states that have seen rising case levels started reopening on or before May 8,” and “Many states that were slowest to reopen have seen a different trajectory, at least so far. Most of the 10 states hit hard over all in the pandemic — but currently seeing decreasing daily cases of the virus — began reopening in mid-May or later.” Seventeen states have seen a downward trend, such as the U.S. epicenter, New York, and another 13 have not changed, reports CNN. According to CNN, “Of the nearly 20 states where numbers surged, Oregon, Nevada, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Alabama and South Carolina recorded an increase of over 50% in the past week as compared to the previous one.” 

Harvard University Professor of Global Health Dr. Ashish Jha says of the continuous upward trend in coronavirus cases, “We really never quite finished the first wave” adding, "And it doesn't look like we are going to anytime soon (NPR). As we’ve noted in a previous brief, the peak of new daily coronavirus cases in the United States hit an average of close to 31,000 on April 10; the current daily count of new cases is close to 22,000, and has hovered around this number since the middle of May. Still, more than 800 Americans die each day due to COVID-19, reports NPR. NPR notes that additional deaths by October 1 could range between 56,000 to 90,000, according to two estimates. In an earlier brief we noted that the CDC began releasing some coronavirus case and death estimates in April using a model created by Youyang Gu, an independent researcher. Gu’s model projects that by October 1, total U.S. deaths due to COVID-19 could be 198,560. The University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model projects 169,890 deaths by October 1. The IHME model was often used as a reference during the White House coronavirus task force briefings.

Part of the U.S.’s problem is the reproduction number (R value) of the virus. As we’ve noted in several previous briefs, the R value identifies the average of how many people an individual can spread the virus to once infected. Any value above 1 “can lead to exponential growth,” notes Reuters. If the R value is higher, such as 2, “then one person goes on to infect two others. Those two people go on to infect four others. Those four go on to infect eight, then 16 and so on. If you assume, say, a six-day interval between each new round of infections — in just over a month, that one initial person will have launched a chain that has infected 127 people,” notes NPR. Because of states’ stay-at-home orders, the R value reduced to 0.91, according to Gu. However, as states’ economies are reopening, the R value is hovering just above 1.  According to IHME head Chris Murray, “We start to see a powerful increase that will be driven by seasonality starting in early September and these numbers will intensify through till February” adding, "So seasonality will be a very big driver of the second wave.” As we noted in Friday’s brief, deaths from the coronavirus will likely decrease in the hot, summer months of June and July, stay constant in August, and then rise “sharply” in September (CNN). Also, on Friday, the CDC released updates to its coronavirus guidelines, available here. 

If only half of a given population wore a mask, the R value would be less than 1. On Sunday, U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams tweeted about Americans’ wearing of face masks: “Some feel face coverings infringe on their freedom of choice- but if more wear them, we’ll have MORE freedom to go out.  Face coverings ➡ less asymptomatic viral spread ➡ more places open, and sooner!  Exercise and promote your freedom by choosing to wear a face covering!” Nearly 80 percent of Americans surveyed said that they “self-isolated last month,” reports CNN, and 74 percent said “they wore face coverings in public either always or often. 

Vaccines: Sinovac’s Candidate Elicited Neutralizing Antibodies in “Above 90%” of Vaccinated Subjects in Phase II Trial; AstraZeneca Signs Contract to Supply EU Countries with Oxford Candidate; Moderna’s Candidate “Completely Protected” Mice Against Coronavirus in Lungs, Reports Preprint; As First Vaccines Enter Large Phase III Trials, “Operation Warp Speed” and WHO Must Design Trials that Can Test Populations Where Infections are Surging

China’s Sinovac announced preliminary results Saturday showing that its vaccine candidate CoronaVac elicited antibodies that were capable of neutralizing the coronavirus in “above 90%” of people 14 days after they received two injections that were two weeks apart, reporting no severe side effects (Bloomberg, STAT). These early results come from a Phase II placebo-controlled trial in 600 people. CoronaVac uses an inactivated (killed) version of the coronavirus, an approach that has been successfully used for decades. Sinovac is planning a Phase III clinical trial in collaboration with a Brazilian drugmaker, Instituto Butantan, to test the vaccine in Brazil, where infection rates are high. “The government of São Paulo announced Thursday that Sinovac will ship enough of its experimental vaccine to test in 9,000 Brazilians starting next month,” writes ABC.

AstraZeneca, whose Phase III trial in Brazil of the Oxford University vaccine candidate has been approved Brazilian authorities, signed a contract with Europe’s Inclusive Vaccines Alliance (IVA), formed by France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands, for 400 million doses of its vaccine candidate to go to all EU member states (Fox, Reuters). Their vaccine candidate aims to use a viral vector, in this case based on a chimpanzee adenovirus, to deliver coronavirus genes that instruct the body to produce coronavirus proteins that will evoke an immune response.

Moderna’s vaccine candidate is the first under Operation Warp Speed to enter a Phase III trial: the trial will enroll 30,000 people and take place in U.S. hospitals and universities (ABC, Science). In a mouse study, Moderna’s vaccine not only elicited neutralizing antibodies, it may have produced sterilizing antibodies that may prevent transmission (BioCentury). Mice that were exposed to a mouse-adapted version of the coronavirus were “completely protected from viral replication in the lungs,” writes a preprint manuscript posted Thursday (BioRxiv). Their vaccine aims to use genetic material (mRNA) to induce the body to produce the coronavirus’s spike protein and thus elicit an immune response, a cutting edge but unproven approach that has not yet delivered a successful vaccine to market. Moderna’s ongoing Phase II trial is testing 50 microgram and 100 microgram doses, and its Phase III trial plans to test the 100 microgram dose.

As vaccines start entering the large Phase III clinical trials that will determine whether a vaccine is safe and effective, the trials themselves must meet design challenges in order to provide reliable evidence (Science). The first challenge is defining what success means for a vaccine: is it enough if a vaccine prevents severe disease, or does it also need to prevent moderate disease? Does it need to prevent the disease altogether, and does it need to stop transmission of the disease? The U.S. government’s “Operation Warp Speed” and the World Health Organization (WHO) Solidarity trials have both decided to define vaccine success in terms of reducing symptoms, even if it does not stop transmission. While stopping transmission would be ideal, a vaccine that simply reduces the severity of symptoms would also be very useful (Bloomberg).

Second, a well-designed trial needs to find and test a population that will give a definitive answer. To do so, “both Warp Speed and Solidarity estimate they will need to give each vaccine to 15,000 to 20,000 people in a population that has a 1% incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection,” writes Science. “If the vaccine prevents COVID-19 symptoms at least 50% of the time, its efficacy should be clear in 6 months, after about 150 infections have accumulated in the trial.” While Sinovac and AstraZeneca are turning to Brazil and its ongoing outbreak for large Phase III trials, Operation Warp Speed “plans to form ‘surge clinics’ to quickly recruit people in rural U.S. areas with big outbreaks or ‘industrial pockets’ of high transmission such as meat-packing plants” writes Science, and will use machine learning models to help forecast where infections will be highest. For its Solidarity vaccine trials, the WHO will use a strategy first developed for testing Ebola vaccines in 2015 and later used in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with teams that will mobilize quickly to conduct trials when localized outbreaks occur. Bonus Reads: “Nearly 160 Coronavirus Vaccines Are in the Works. Here’s a Closer Look at the Science” (LA Times) and “Guaranteed Ingredient in Any Coronavirus Vaccine? Thousands of Volunteers” (NYT).

Mice Successfully Infected With SARS-CoV-2 via “Shortcut” Technique With Adenoviruses Can Help Speed Study of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19

According to a report by Nature, two teams – one from Washington University School of Medicine and University of Iowa; and the other from Guangzhou Medical University and South University of Science, Technology of China, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, Chinese Academy of Sciences – have used “adenoviruses — a workhorse of gene therapy — to deliver the human ACE2 gene to the lung cells of mice,” effectively creating a “shortcut” to help make COVID-19 models in mice. Adenoviruses “are common viruses that can cause illness in humans. Most adenovirus infections cause mild respiratory illness, such as the common cold” (Virginia Department of Health). According to one of the research studies, “One limitation to the evaluation of potential therapies and vaccines to inhibit SARS-CoV-2 infection and ameliorate disease is the lack of susceptible small animals in large numbers…The development of an accessible mouse model of SARS CoV-2 infection and pathogenesis will expedite the testing and deployment of therapeutics and vaccines.” Further, the study states, “In addition to creating an accessible model for studying SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis in the lung, we established that systemic delivery of a neutralizing monoclonal antibody mitigates viral infection, inflammation, and disease” (Cell). 

The second study emphasized that mice introduced with a replication-deficient adenovirus “are useful for evaluating SARS-CoV-2-specific therapies” in humans (Cell). The team used plasma from three patients who recovered from the SARS-CoV-2, three survivors of SARS, two survivors of MERS, and one healthy donor, and then administered 150 microliters of plasma one day before the mice were infected with SARS-CoV-2. The results showed that the plasma “prevented weight loss and lung tissue histological changes and accelerated the rate of virus clearance” in the mice. Further, “More rapid clearance was not observed after treatment with pooled plasma from SARS survivors or MERS survivors.” And, remdesivir – the only drug known to work against Covid-19, and the drug approved for the treatment of COVID-19 via emergency use authorization by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in May – administered one day before the mice were infected with SARS-CoV-2 and then further receiving 25 mg/kg twice a day resulted in “decreased weight loss, significantly accelerated virus clearance, and diminished cellular infiltration of lung tissue in [the mice].” Both studies believe this new “shortcut” will help researchers looking to replicate SARS-CoV-2 models in small lab animals. As the researchers from Washington University School of Medicine and University of Iowa stated, “Our mouse model provides definitive evidence that antibody-based treatments can mitigate SARS-CoV-2 infection in vivo, analogous to that described for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV infections, and suggests a path forward for identifying therapeutic antibody candidates or combinations with even greater potency and protective activity. The availability of SARS-CoV-2 small animal models that are easily generated with commercially available mice can accelerate the pace of screening, identification, and development of countermeasures (drugs, vaccines, and antibody therapeutics) for advancement to pivotal non-human primate and human studies” (Cell).

Gaps in Coronavirus Test Data “Disguise the Full Impact of the Coronavirus on Minority Populations”

As we noted in an earlier brief, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) now requires laboratories to “report more details to the government about people who take coronavirus tests, including information on race, gender and zip code,” according to Bloomberg. Other demographic information includes age, ethnicity, sex, and county of residence. This new guidance hopes to standardize the testing reports across the country and, as the HHS notes, following new procedures will help states’ economies with phased reopening. However, the continued lack of available consistent demographic information “disguises the full impact of the coronavirus on minority populations that have been disproportionately ravaged by the disease,” reports Politico. Fifty-two percent of all SARS-CoV-2 cases in the United States lack information related to race or ethnicity. Politico also notes that “federal guidance on gathering more of that data through testing won’t start until August.” Executive director of the Advancement Project California, John Kim, states of this lack of information, “Unless we use data and focus concretely on race, we are going to let Covid-19 bake in a whole new generation of disparities.” For example, in Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, black residents account for 27 percent of the population, but 46 percent of COVID-19-related deaths. Milwaukee County’s Latino population is 15 percent of residents, but accounts for 35 percent of coronavirus cases. 

Some states such as Ohio and Wisconsin have tried to rectify the lack of demographic data, by retroactively finding the data and reentering it with race and ethnicity details. Others have not. South Dakota is still not collecting any race or ethnicity demographic information, and Texas does not have race or ethnicity data for over 80 percent of its coronavirus cases and 70 percent of its COVID-19-related deaths. The Trump administration announced that Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson and Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) would lead a plan “to address minority populations disproportionately ravaged by the virus,” reports Politico. However, the plan still does not exist two months after the announcement was made. Dr. Uché Blackstock, Founder and CEO of Advancing Health Equity, says of this lack of available data, “We will likely see the repercussions of the pandemic on these communities not only for decades but for centuries if we don’t move urgently and swiftly to address the underlying factors including structural racism” adding, “If we don't really get those accurate numbers, we will never truly grasp how vulnerable black and Latino communities were before this pandemic and during the pandemic.” Bonus Read: “Contact tracing is ‘best’ tool we have until there’s a vaccine, say health experts” (WaPo).

Latin American Countries Start Production on Coronavirus Vaccine Candidates

Scientists across Latin America are working on their own coronavirus vaccine candidates. Baylor College of Medicine microbiologist María Elena Bottazzi says of Latin America’s race for a coronavirus vaccine, “The only ones who are going to solve the problems in Latin America are going to be us, Latin Americans. No one’s coming to rescue us.” Bottazzi plans to partner with vaccine producers in Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina. University of São Paulo immunologist Gustavo Cabral de Miranda spent several years in Europe studying vaccine technologies, and has been working in Brazil since 2019 on other viruses that cause illness throughout the country. Brazil is a large vaccine producer for all of Latin America. Once the coronavirus hit, Cabral quickly shifted his focus. His team uses “harmless, hollow, virus-like particles created in the lab…to trick the immune system into producing antibodies that would block the coronavirus during an infection” (Nature). This technique is considered safer than a vaccine made from a weakened virus, and the team is now starting animal testing. Butantan Institute in São Paulo vaccinologist Luciana Leite says of the process, “If you have an idea that’s different from what’s out there, I think it’s worthwhile contributing with that.” In recent research by Leite and her team, they’ve found a way to attach antigens to large bubbles that get released by bacterial membranes that can “mislead a host’s immune system.” They are now trying that technique with SARS-CoV-2 proteins. Also on Saturday, São Paulo Mayor Bruno Covas, tested positive for the coronavirus (CNN).

Mexico used to make many vaccines prior to the 1990s before a state-owned company called Birmex took over vaccine productions from the rest of the research institutes that used to support Mexico’s vaccine production. Mexico now produces vaccines for influenza and hepatitis B, reports Nature. National Autonomous University of Mexico biotechnologist Laura Palomares is working on a vaccine with virus-like particles as well. Palomares hopes that her vaccine might be made by Birmex. Mexico’s Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education biotechnologist José Manuel Aguilar is working with a Canadian company that might manufacture a vaccine he and his colleagues are creating. Aguilar’s vaccine “uses rings of DNA called nanoplasmids, which are taken up by cells. The DNA encodes a specific region of the protein that SARS-CoV-2 uses to infect a host; this allows the cells to produce the antigen and display it on their surface, alerting the host’s immune system.”

Chile was a prominent vaccine producer of a rabies vaccine in the 1960s that was used throughout Latin America, but has not produced the same volume of widespread vaccines since then. According to Pontifical Catholic University of Chile immunologist Alexis Kalergis, currently “all human vaccines used in Chile are obtained from foreign laboratories.” Kalergis’ team is working on four possible SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates, “using protein fragments, genetic material and live but harmless bacteria that can express some of the coronavirus’s components.” They hope to begin trials in humans by next year. Kalergis said of his team’s work, “Our plan is to distribute this vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 to all countries that need it” adding, “but with emphasis in our region.”

Peru biophysicist at Cayetano Heredia University in Lima Mirko Zimic has started working with a veterinary pharmaceutical company called FARVET to work on a human vaccine. Zimic and the FARVET team are using insect cells “to manufacture coronavirus spike proteins to provoke an immune response.” They will then inject these into mice, and if successful, then will move to monkeys. The problem, Zimic says, is that Peru does not have the capacity to do such widespread testing. However, Zimic says, “We will not always be able to buy or import solutions” adding, “It is my dream that in Peru, as well as in several countries in Latin America, we start producing our own vaccines.”

Bonus Reads: “Could a global ‘observatory’ of blood help stop the next pandemic?” (Science) and “‘Obsessed with staying alive’: Inmates describe a prison’s piecemeal response to a fatal Covid-19 outbreak” (STAT).

Around the World

International Monetary Fund: Bleaker Predictions to Come for 2020 Global Economic Forecast 

Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, said that the IMF would provide a bleaker economic prediction from its April forecast of a 3 percent contraction to an even more significant downturn. In her remarks on Saturday to Italy's National Consultation, she stated, "The real economy is hit hard. We will release a new forecast on the 24th of June and expect it to reflect the extremely challenging conditions. In April, we projected minus 3 percent for global growth in 2020. We are likely to revise downward further on the basis of incoming data, which tells us that most countries are doing worse than we had projected. A small number of countries are doing better but not enough to change the overall direction." Gita Gopinath, the chief economist at the IMF, added to these remarks stating the global economy has to be prepared for significant "scarring effects" (Bloomberg, Business Week, IMF).

Asia

Beijing Goes into Lockdown After New Virus Outbreak

Beijing closed Xinfadi market, the city's largest fruit and vegetable market, and locked down neighboring housing districts, as dozens of people connected to the market tested positive for coronavirus. The new infections have raised concerns across the country for a resurgence, and Beijing is taking aggressive measures to slow the virus' spread. Local officials reported Saturday that of the 500 samples and tests gathered from the market, the 45 people who tested positive did not show symptoms (Bloomberg). Sunday, China recorded more than 50 new cases, all linked to community spread from the market. Monday, a health official said that more than 76,000 people linked to the Xinfadi market had been tested, including almost 13,000 of the roughly 29,000 people had recently visited the market (WSJ). Xu Hejian, a spokesperson for the Beijing government, discussed the new cases: "We would like to warn everyone not to drop their guard even for a second in epidemic prevention control; we must be prepared for a prolonged fight with the virus. We have to stay alert to the risks of imported cases and to the fact that epidemic control in our city is complicated and serious and will be here for a long time" (WaPo). The new cases resulted in China reporting its highest daily increase in coronavirus cases in two months (NBC). The new numbers also included China’s first locally transmitted cases in almost two months.

Pakistan’s Planning Minister: Coronavirus Cases Could Rise to 300,000 by the End of June and Over One Million in July

According to Pakistan’s planning minister, Asad Umar, “expert estimates say the number of confirmed cases could go up to 300,000 by the end of June if we keep on flouting SOPs (standard operating procedures) and taking the problem lightly” (AFP, Al Jazeera). Further, Umar stated, the cases could rise to 1.2 million by July. Currently, Pakistan has 140,000 coronavirus cases and 6,400 COVID-19-related deaths.

In New Delhi Region 500 Train Carriages, 40 Hotels, 77 Banquet Halls to be Converted into Makeshift Hospitals for COVID-19 Patients 

Over the weekend, Home Minister Amit Shah met with Delhi’s Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal to discuss the pandemic, particularly in the New Delhi area, and announced plans to use 500 train cars for hospital beds. This will increase the number of available beds in the Delhi area to 8,000, reports Reuters. In addition, the Delhi government will use “40 hotels and 77 banquet halls as makeshift hospitals,” reports the BBC. At least 9,195 Indians have died from COVID-19, according to Johns Hopkins University data, and India has at least 320,922 confirmed coronavirus cases, reports the BBC, and its daily count of new cases is nearly 12,000. According to the Hindustan Times, Delhi’s case count is now 41,182, increasing by 2,224 new cases, which is “highest ever single-day spike so far.” By the end of July, Delhi’s number of coronavirus cases will likely reach more than 500,000 (Reuters). Bonus Read: “Coronavirus: Why Gujarat has India's highest mortality rate” (BBC).

South Korea Sees New Coronavirus Cases Over the Weekend

South Korea reported 49 new coronavirus cases on Saturday, mostly from Seoul. According to the Associated Press, cases are coming from places “where health authorities have been struggling to slow transmissions linked to entertainment and leisure activities, church gatherings and low-income workers who can’t afford to stay home.” South Korea’s total coronavirus case number is now 12,051 and 277 people have died from COVID-19. Bonus Read: “Korea Crushed a Huge Virus Outbreak. Can It Beat a Second Wave?” (Bloomberg).

47 New Coronavirus Cases in Tokyo, Highest Daily Increase Since May 5

Tokyo confirmed 47 new coronavirus cases Sunday, the highest daily increase since May 5, including 18 cases linked to a nightclub in Shinjuku (Bloomberg, Kyodo). Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike said the Tokyo metropolitan government is asking workers at nightlife entertainment establishments to take regular coronavirus tests and is working with the minister in charge of Japan’s virus response to prevent a second wave of infections. The country’s state of emergency was lifted on May 25. Cumulatively, Japan has had 927 deaths and 17,369 cases of coronavirus (Johns Hopkins University).

Middle East

Iran Reports Highest Death Toll in 2 Months

On Sunday, Iran reported that 107 people had died over the past 24 hours from coronavirus marking the country’s highest daily death toll in two months (Bloomberg, MEE). According to the health ministry there have been 187,427 cases in Iran and 8,837 deaths. The figures show a rising trend starting in May following Iran’s taking initial steps towards reopening in April.

Saudi Government Launches Contact Tracing App, International Flights to Saudi Arabia Remain Suspended, Yemen and the Philippines Close Diplomatic Missions in Saudi Arabia

Over the weekend, Yemen and the Philippines closed their diplomatic missions in Saudi Arabia out of concern regarding the coronavirus (Al Jazeera). Yemen’s embassy announced its closure on Saturday as a result of cases among the staff, though it did not provide information on the number of cases. The Philippines announced the closure of its mission on Sunday after six staff tested positive. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has launched a contact tracing app as part of its response to coronavirus (Arab News). Also on Sunday, Saudi officials announced that international flights to and from the country would remain suspended (Gulf News).

Africa

Africa’s Coronavirus Cases on the Rise, Raising Concerns for Health Experts About How COVID-19 Patients Will Be Treated

Africa’s continental coronavirus mortality count is just above 6,200 as of Sunday out of 233,836 cases and 107,013 recoveries according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention and Johns Hopkins University data (Africa News). Some of those who died from COVID-19 include the President of the Republic of the Congo Jacques Joachim Yhombi-Opango and Somalia's former Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein. As we’ve noted in previous briefs, health experts are worried about cases progressing to COVID-19 due to a lack of ventilators or available treatments in Africa.

Some of the hardest hit countries include Egypt, which has 41,303 cases; South Africa, the continent’s viral epicenter, which has 61,927 cases, and Nigeria, which has 15,181 cases (Al Jazeera). As we noted in a previous brief, the coronavirus is spreading across Africa at a more significant pace, and will continue to do so until a vaccine is developed, said the director general of the World Health Organization’s regional office for Africa, Matshidiso Moeti, on Thursday (Guardian). It only took 18 days for coronavirus cases across the continent to double from 100,000 to 200,000 (Al Jazeera).

Kenya Fumigates Public Areas to Stop the Spread of SARS-CoV-2

On Saturday, Kenya’s Ministry of Health tweeted a video of a worker fumigating public spaces against the coronavirus in capital city Nairobi, writing: “Fumigation of public places in Nairobi county is underway by @MOH_Kenya public health team to contain the spread of #COVID19 #KomeshaCorona update. Kenya’s Ministry of Health announced 152 new coronavirus cases on Saturday; the country has 3,594 coronavirus cases and 103 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

Europe

France Accelerates Loosening of Lockdown

On Sunday, French President Emmanuel Macron said he would accelerate efforts to loosen France’s coronavirus lockdown (NBC). On Monday, Paris restaurants and cafes will be allowed to reopen while on June 22, schools will reopen with attendance once again becoming mandatory. France’s European borders opened on Sunday, and travelers from outside Europe will be allowed to enter on July 1.

British PM Reviewing U.K.’s “Two-Metre Social Distancing Rule”

As of Saturday, the United Kingdom’s death toll from COVID-19 increased by 36 new deaths to 41,698 according to a government count. This daily increase in COVID-19-related deaths is the lowest the U.K. has seen since March 22, which was the day before Prime Minister Boris Johnson instituted a lockdown, reports Reuters. The Prime Minister is now reviewing the U.K.’s “two-metre social distancing rule” as the next phase of reopening the economy is slated for July 4. “As we get the numbers down, so it becomes one in 1,000, one in 1,600, maybe even fewer, your chances of being two metres, or one metre, or even a foot away from somebody who has the virus is obviously going down statistically, so you start to build some more margin for manoeuvre,” stated Johnson (Reuters).

Pandemic Affects Abortion Access Around Europe

As we have covered in previous briefs, lockdown orders in the United States prompted debates over access to abortion services and whether abortion constituted an essential service or could be restricted—as some Republican-led states sought to do. These tensions, however, are not restricted to the United States, as explored in a Sunday New York Times report (NYT). In Poland, for example, abortion is illegal under most circumstances, but many Polish women would leave for other European countries to seek an abortion, a method that became impossible as borders closed to prevent the pandemic’s spread. Meanwhile, even where abortion is legal in Europe, many countries did not categorize it as an essential service—among those countries were Germany, Austria, Romania, Croatia, and Slovakia. Yet, other European countries saw loosened restrictions. The Times reports, “France, Ireland and England, Scotland and Wales in Britain, all loosened restrictions and permitted at-home abortions with medication administered by prescription and the guidance of a medical professional over the phone or online.”

U.S. Government & Politics

WSJ: New York Coronavirus Response Worsened Pandemic 

New York City's response to the coronavirus pandemic was characterized by missed warning signs and policies that many health-care workers have stated increased undue risk and caused more deaths, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and Mayor de Blasio were slow to respond to the pandemic, only building hospital capacity as they were in the throes of a crisis. Further, the swift hospital capacity enlargement that occurred and was led by New York government leaders and hospital administrators worsened the crisis. The Journal's investigative report found a multitude of errors made during the pandemic response, including inappropriate patient transfers, inadequate isolation procedures, and meager staff-protection policies. One of the biggest problems was patient transfers. More than 1,600 Covid-19 patients were transferred from overloaded hospitals to others with more capacity. However, sometimes the transfers affected patient care with patients experiencing worse conditions when they arrived or were transferred without names and treatment information. Scott Amrhein, a trade-association executive who helped obtain protective gear for nursing-home employees, became so troubled by the issues in the pandemic that he committed suicide. Amrhein wrote about New York's pandemic response stating, "It is a travesty that our society and our leaders fail continuously—as now—to elevate, value and respect that critical work" (WSJ).

White House Trade Adviser: Trump Wants Next Stimulus to be in $2 Trillion Range

On Friday White House Trade Adviser Peter Navarro commented that President Trump would seek another round of stimulus in the $2 trillion range (Politico). Navarro said, “The president is very interested in something on the order of at least $2 trillion” in an interview with Fox Business. Navarro also stressed that the administration would like to see a payroll tax cut. The $2 trillion figure Navarro floated sits between the $1 trillion that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has urged and the $3 trillion range promoted by House Democratic leadership.

Trump Rally in Oklahoma Risks Coronavirus Transmission 

President Trump plans to hold a rally for his supporters this upcoming Saturday in Tulsa, Oklahoma, for the first time since the pandemic began. Tulsa, Oklahoma has had a comparatively low number of confirmed coronavirus cases; however experts warn of the potential risks of the event becoming a catalyst for virus spread. University of Minnesota infectious disease experts Michael T. Osterholm was interviewed by Chris Wallace on "Fox News Sunday" and cited indoor venues, large crowds, and chanting as potential vectors that could increase virus transmission. The Trump campaign has said that more than 800,000 people have expressed interest in the rally. Attendees of the rally have to acknowledge the risk of virus spread in a waiver releasing the Trump campaign of accountability if people get infected. Other risks that could promote problematic outcomes for attendees of the rallies include that many are older, as well as a lack of required masks. Larry Kudlow, an economic adviser to President Trump, has encouraged the use of masks, but it is unclear what plans and precautions will be used to prevent the spread of the virus. Osterholm discussed the rallies, stating, "Would I want my loved ones in a setting like that? Absolutely not. And it wouldn't matter about politics; I wouldn't want them there" (WaPo, AP, CNN).

CDC Reinforces Mask Recommendation and Hints at Another Lockdown

On Friday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) held one of their first press briefings in months reporting that state and cities might have to go back into lockdown if coronavirus cases surge. Additionally, the CDC reinforced recommendations for infection control preventative measures such as mask usage and handwashing. CDC Director Robert Redfield stated, "I know people are eager to return to normal activities and ways of life. The pandemic has not ended" (Bloomberg).

President Trump Makes Commencement Address at Socially-distanced West Point Graduation

On Saturday, President Trump addressed over 1,100 students at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point for the annual graduation ceremony. The commencement ceremony was located at Plain Parade Field instead of the Michie Stadium to accommodate coronavirus preventative measure requirements. Family and friends of the graduates were prohibited from attending the event. West Point had been prepping for the ceremony and instituted a wide range of preventative measures to slow the spread of the virus. Christopher Ophardt, Director of Public Affairs and Communications at West Point, discussed the event: "They're seated at about 8-foot intervals across the parade field, so it's an outdoor ceremony. Once they reach their seats, they will then take their masks off for the rest of the ceremony because they will be practicing social distancing, and they're outside, and they've all tested negative. Instead of being handed the diploma, they will render a salute from a small stage that's about 15 feet in front of where the President will be standing" (CNN).

U.S. Economy

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Improves in Early June

According to a University of Michigan survey, Americans' opinions on the economy improved in early June, as many states began to reopen their economies. The reading of consumer sentiment rose to 78.9 for the week ended June 10, compared to 72.3 reported in the last four weeks. The rise in the index demonstrates that a growing number of consumers expect the economy to rebound and improve. Richard Curtin, the survey's chief economist, discussed the results: "The turnaround is largely due to renewed gains in employment, with more consumers expecting declines in the jobless rate than at any other time in the long history of the Michigan surveys" (WSJ).

White House Won't Extend Expanded Unemployment Benefits Past July Says Economic Adviser

The Trump administration does not plan to continue enhanced unemployment benefits beyond the end of July, due to its concerns that workers are choosing to take the benefits rather than going back to work. Larry Kudlow, economic adviser to President Trump, said on CNN's "State of the Union," "The $600 plus-up that's above the state unemployment benefits they will continue to receive is in effect a disincentive. I mean, we're paying people not to work. It's better than their salaries would get…That might have worked for the first couple of months. It will end in late July" (Politico, NY Post).

California Blackouts Amid Pandemic Could Prove Problematic for Silicon Valley Giants 

California has a history of rolling blackouts, and in 2019, three million Californians lost power. If utilities are cut to prevent wildfires, employees at major companies will not be able to head into offices to continue working. As a result, the blackouts, combined with the pandemic effects, could limit California's ability to reopen the economy and harm the functionality of some business operations of Silicon Valley tech giants. Currently, Google, Twitter, and Facebook are among the many California companies keeping offices closed due to the virus. State governments, utility companies, and private companies are all attempting to come up with solutions, but the wildfire season is predicted to be worse than average. Don Daigler, director of business resiliency at Edison's Southern California Edison Utility, discussed the wildfires, stating, "The reality is Mother Nature hasn't changed her mind with respect to wildfires because of COVID. We still face the same fire risk as communities as we did last year" (Bloomberg).

U.S Businesses Seek Legal Protection Against Coronavirus-Related Lawsuits

Businesses across the nation are lobbying congressional lawmakers for protections against coronavirus-related lawsuits. However, congressional Democrats and labor unions worry such protections could harm employees.  Marc Perrone, the president of the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union, discussed the possibility of COVID-19 immunity legislation for businesses, stating, "Immunity laws could send dangerous messages that the safety of these workers is not the company's responsibility.” Some states have taken the issue into their own hands and have opted to protect businesses. States such as Alabama, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Utah have passed laws giving businesses more protection if their employees or customers become infected with the coronavirus. Some companies are forcing customers and employees to sign waivers, releasing them from liability. As we covered in previous briefs, other American institutions have lawsuit immunity amid the pandemic, such as nursing homes (NYT). 

Bonus Reads: “China a Bright Spot for U.S. in Gloomy Global Trade Picture” (WSJ) and “Unions tap into burst of worker angst over coronavirus” (Politico).

U.S. Society

Mass Eviction Crisis Faces Black, Latino Communities as Moratorium Set to Expire on July 31

Black and other minority communities are likely to face a new crisis, as a federal moratorium on evictions promulgated in response to the pandemic is set to expire on July 31, reports Politico. While the expiration will have broad effects, it will hit Blacks and Latinos particularly hard as they are about two times as likely to rent as whites. Asked for the number of people facing eviction the Department of Housing and Urban Development stated that it “does not have these numbers available.” Many people will not be able to afford rent and thus face eviction once the moratorium lifts as a result of the spike in unemployment due to the virus, a spike that has disproportionately affected minority communities.

NYC Subway Ridership Surges 25%

According to New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, subway ridership surged 25 percent Wednesday from the previous week as businesses began to reopen. The experience of taking the subway in New York City has been altered amid the pandemic, as now there are still fewer riders, and the trains and stations are cleaner due to a nightly cleaning regime. David Herring, a Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) customer service representative, discussed the changes stating: "Other than the days after 9/11, I've never seen it like this before” (NYT).

Waitstaff Face New Challenges as Restaurants Reopen

Waitstaff across the country are facing new challenges as restaurants reopen, raising questions about safety and service (WSJ). “I feel like someone’s monitoring me when I’m at work now. There’s always eyes on me,” commented Andrew Martinez, a 20-year-old waiter at an Oklahoma pizza restaurant that recently reopened, recalling a customer asking whether he had changed his gloves. For Martinez, the reconfiguration of the dining room has also affected his day, with new socially distanced tables meaning he walks 8 miles during a shift up from five. The pandemic may also place a high premium on the emotional labor wait staff engage in by empathizing and engaging with customers while potentially reducing the number of patrons and their tips. Jeff Eastman, a 40-year-old bartender at a California Buffalo Wild Wings, commented, “I’m going to have to empathize with them on a much higher level than I ever had to,” noting that he expects patrons to have more sad stories due to their rising economic struggles and a lack of social activities due to social distancing.

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by Peter Bergen and co-edited by Melissa Salyk-Virk, Emily Schneider, David Sterman, and Narisara Murray, with Brenden McMullen.

Read previous briefs here: https://www.newamerica.org/international-security/blog/new-america-coronavirus-daily-brief/

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