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March 16, 2021 - Brief Issue 168

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Four More European Countries Suspend Use of AstraZeneca Vaccine (Health & Science)

Biden Administration Will Reach 100 Million Vaccines, Stimulus Checks By March 25 (Health & Science)

CDC Says Almost All Vaccinated Americans Have Followed Up With Second Shot (Health & Science)

WHO Member Points to Farms in Southern China as Likely Origin of the Pandemic (Health & Science)

Cases in Germany Up 20 Percent as Third Wave Begins (Around the World)

Manila Orders Children to Stay Indoors (Around the World)

Families Separated by Quarantine in Hong Kong (Around the World)

Half of New Yorkers Say Cuomo Should Not Resign (U.S. Government & Politics)

U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen Pushes for Global Minimum Tax on Corporations to Pay for Biden Agenda (U.S. Government & Politics)

U.S. Housing Market Surges, But Looks Different From the 2006 Pre-Crash Surge (U.S. Economy)

Facebook Says It Will Contribute to Vaccination Push (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 29,495,422 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 535,628 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 373,271,829 tests and distributed 135,847,835 vaccine doses, with 109,081,860 doses administered (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 120,263,363 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,661,798 deaths. At least 68,214,013 people have recovered from the virus.

Four More European Countries Suspend Use of AstraZeneca Vaccine

On Monday, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain became the latest European countries to halt use of the AstraZeneca vaccine, over concerns about side effects (WSJ, WaPo, NYT). Scattered reports of blood clots and hemorrhages have raised alarm; however, the World Health Organization still recommends use of the shot, stating that lack of access to vaccines threatens public health more than the vaccines themselves. AstraZeneca has reported no evidence of an increased risk of blood clots. The European Medicines Agency, which is investigating and plans on releasing a verdict Thursday, echoes these claims. Health experts fear the pause on AstraZeneca could exacerbate anti-vaccine sentiment in Europe (STAT). Sir Richard Peto of the University of Oxford said he’s worried that the Norwegian Medicines Agency, which sounded the first alarm over AstraZeneca, isn’t factoring in the existing prevalence of blood clots independent of the vaccine. “Unless they’ve got serious evidence of hazard, they shouldn’t put out press statements that will very clearly be taken as evidence of hazard,” Peto said.

Biden Administration Will Reach 100 Million Vaccines, Stimulus Checks By March 25

In light of the passage of the American Rescue Plan, President Biden announced that his administration will hit two major benchmarks by the end of the week – distributing 100 million Covid-19 vaccines and 100 million stimulus checks (CBS, NYT). Since Biden’s inauguration, the U.S has administered 92.6 million vaccine doses. “Shots in arms and money in pockets. That’s important,” Biden said during his address from the White House on Monday.

Mississippi Makes All Adults Eligible for Vaccine

On Tuesday, Mississippi governor Tate Reeves will make all adults 16 and older eligible for the coronavirus vaccine, making it the second state, behind Alaska, to do so (NYT). Mississippi has fallen behind most states in the amount of vaccinations it has administered – about 20% of Mississippi residents have at least one shot, and 11% are fully vaccinated – but it has surpassed all of its neighboring states, except Louisiana. Reeves tweeted Monday, “Get your shot friends – and let’s get back to normal!”

CDC Says Almost All Vaccinated Americans Have Followed Up With Second Shot

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published a report suggesting that the majority of Americans are getting the second dose of their multi-shot vaccine regimens (NYT, MSN). The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, which were authorized for use in December 2020, both require two shots. Pfizer doses are spaced out by a recommended 21 days, and Moderna by 28, though the CDC sanctions an interval of up to 42 days if necessary. People are considered fully vaccinated two weeks after their second shot, or two weeks after a single-dose regimen.

The CDC ran two analyses of vaccination data from December 14, 2020 to February 14, 2020, focusing on the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. The first analysis found that 88% of people who received a first shot completed their whole regimen, while 8.6% hadn’t received a second shot yet but were still within the 42-day window. Only 3.4% had missed it. The second analysis found that out of everyone who received two shots, 95.6% did so within 42 days. These numbers varied regionally. Native Americans and Alaska Native vaccine recipients were the least likely to finish their two-dose regimen out of people who reported ethnicity, the study found. 

The authors of the study called the data “reassuring,” but they did point out that many early vaccine recipients got their shots through a healthcare-related workplace or a long-term living facility, improving their chances of following up with a second dose. 

WHO Member Points to Farms in Southern China as Likely Origin of the Pandemic

Peter Daszak, a member of the World Health Organization and a disease ecologist with EcoHealth Alliance, told NPR that wildlife farms in southern China are most likely at the root of the Covid-19 pandemic (NPR). On a trip to China earlier this year, WHO found new evidence that these farms supplied wildlife to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan, China, the source of an early Covid-19 outbreak. 

Before China’s wildlife farms shut down permanently in February 2020, the country had been promoting the farming of exotic wildlife for two decades. Wildlife farming served as a key source of income for many rural Chinese citizens; the industry hit $70 billion in 2016. 

Daszak believes the government closed wildlife farms – instructing farmers to kill and dispose of animals in a sterile way – because these places may have been the avenue through which SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing Covid-19, was transmitted from bats to animals and then to people. "China closes that pathway down for a reason," Daszak said. "The reason was, back in February 2020, they believed this was the most likely pathway. And when the WHO report comes out ... we believe it's the most likely pathway too."

Many wildlife farms are located around the southern province of Yunnan, where bats carrying a virus 96% identical to SARS-CoV-2 have been identified. The farms were also breeding animals capable of carrying and transmitting coronaviruses. And, Daszak and his team found that wildlife farms in southern China were supplying vendors at the infamous Wuhan market. Linfa Wang, a virologist at the Duke-NUS Medical School in Singapore, said Chinese scientists identified many positive coronavirus samples in the live animal section of the market. According to Daszak, the next step is to figure out exactly which type of animal, from which wildlife farm, served as a conductor of the virus. 

South African Vaccine Trials Demonstrate Importance of Working on a Global Scale

Last month, a South African trial found that the Oxford Astra-Zeneca vaccine may be less effective against the highly contagious, South African B.1.352 coronavirus variant, illuminating how quickly the virus is mutating to elude vaccines (NYT). Moreover, this AstraZeneca trial – and another key South African trial, which studied the Novavax vaccine and B.1.352 – demonstrate the value of conducting medical research worldwide, not just in wealthier countries. 

Drug and vaccine producers tend to run trials wherever they have strong commercial markets, meaning they favor wealthier parts of the world. Below 3% of clinical trials are run in Africa. But coronavirus variants are popping up in less wealthy locations – such as South Africa and Brazil – showing that vaccines should be tested across the globe, so that countries have all the information they need to attack new variants. Clare Cutland of the University of Witwatersrand in Johannesburg said without trials in South Africa, the world would have been caught off guard.  “If you don’t identify and react to what’s happening in some supposedly far-flung continent, it significantly impacts global health,” Cutland said.

Around the World

Europe

Cases in Germany Up 20 Percent as Third Wave Begins

German coronavirus infections are spreading exponentially and have increased 20% since last week, according to an expert at the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for infectious diseases. As we covered in yesterday’s brief, a new report by RKI published last week projected a third wave of coronavirus across the country with cases peaking around Easter (Der Tagesspiegel). “We are exactly on the flank of the third wave. That can no longer be disputed. And at this point we have eased the restrictions and that is speeding up the exponential growth,” RKI epidemiologist Dirk Brockmann told German ARD television (Reuters). Chancellor Angela Merkel and state leaders had agreed to ease curbs earlier this month but also included an “emergency brake” provision that would allow authorities to reimpose restrictions if case numbers were above 100 per 100,000 for three consecutive days. On Monday, the number of cases was at 83 per 100,000 people, up from 79 on Sunday. The RKI believes the metric could reach 200 by the middle of next month. 

New Variant Identified in France

The French health ministry said in a statement late on Monday that health officials identified a new coronavirus variant (Reuters). The variant was found inside a hospital in Lannion in the French region of Brittany. Initial analysis did not show that the new variant was more serious or transmissible than other variants. No other details have been reported at this time. 

Asia

Manila Orders Children to Stay Indoors

The Philippine capital Manila will ban minors from leaving their homes for two weeks starting tomorrow as coronavirus restrictions tighten to counter a new surge in infections. Only those aged 18-65 years old will be allowed out of their homes, the Metro Manila Development Authority said in a statement (Reuters). Night time curfews were reimposed on Monday and liquor bans and localized lockdowns in places with high infection rates have also been put in place. The Philippines has experienced a surge in cases this month, recording the largest daily increase since mid-August on Monday with 5,404 new infections. 

Families Separated by Quarantine in Hong Kong

Hong Kong authorities have ordered that anyone who tests positive for coronavirus must go to the hospital, including babies and children, while all their close contacts, even those who test negative, must quarantine in makeshift camps (Reuters). In the most recent outbreak, more than 120 cases have been recorded in a cluster linked to a high-end gym popular with the expat and finance community. It has prompted the closure of the U.S. consulate and sudden lockdowns of residential buildings for mass testing and as a result, hundreds of people had to go into quarantine. Some mothers of infants have been separated from their babies and have had to stop breastfeeding abruptly. The makeshift camps were not designed to hold families and many of the rooms lack refrigerators, cooking facilities, or any kind of baby amenities. In some cases, families are sharing a 194 sq. ft. room for the two week period. At a regular briefing on Tuesday, Hong Kong’s leader, Carrie Lam, said the government had “no policy to deliberately separate children from their parents,” but that public health concerns had to be respected. “Where the close contacts are young children of the parents … we will exceptionally allow the admission of the children into hospital as well, where there will be appropriate arrangements,” she said (Guardian).

China Makes Inroads in Brazil Thanks to Vaccine Diplomacy

After months of being blamed for the coronavirus pandemic and fighting distrust from other world leaders, China is now seeing its diplomats and business executives fielding requests for vaccines from officials in Latin America as the virus continues to spread across the region. China’s ability to mass-produce the vaccines and ship them to the developing world is opening new doors for diplomacy and public relations, in addition to offering new business opportunities. In Brazil, for example, politicians have recently changed their minds about allowing the Chinese telecommunications company Huawei to bid in its 5G auction, one of the biggest in the world (NYT). The government had previously barred the company from participating but did an about-face after the Brazilian communications minister went to Beijing in February to meet with Huawei executives. “I took advantage of the trip to ask for vaccines, which is what everyone is clamoring for,” said the minister, Fábio Faria, recounting his meeting with Huawei. The New York Times writes: “The precise connection between the vaccine request and Huawei’s inclusion in the 5G auction is unclear, but the timing is striking, and it is part of a stark change in Brazil’s stance toward China. The president, his son and the foreign minister abruptly stopped criticizing China, while cabinet officials with inroads to the Chinese, like Mr. Faria, worked furiously to get new vaccine shipments approved. Millions of doses have arrived in recent weeks.”

Bonus Read: “10 Reasons for Australia’s Covid-19 Success Story,” (WaPo).

U.S. Government & Politics

Half of New Yorkers Say Cuomo Should Not Resign

In a Siena College Research Institute poll released on Monday, 50% of New Yorkers said that they did not want Governor Andrew Cuomo to resign (WSJ, Politico). Meanwhile, 35% said that they did want him to resign. The Wall Street Journal writes, “Thirty-five percent of poll respondents said they believed Mr. Cuomo had committed sexual harassment, compared with 24% who said he had not and 41% who said they were unsure. The poll found 57% of voters surveyed said they were satisfied with how the governor has handled the allegations.” The poll had a sample of 804 New York voters, who were asked their opinions between March 8 and March 12. It had a margin of error of 4.1%. Opinions are split along partisan lines. Siena spokesperson Steve Greenberg stated, “Nearly two-thirds of Republicans say Cuomo should resign, however, 61 percent of Democrats and 46 percent of independents, a plurality, say he should not.” The poll comes as Governor Cuomo faces a set of scandals including over allegations of sexual harassment, his administration’s handling of data on Covid deaths in nursing homes, and reports that his vaccine czar mixed efforts to gauge political support for Cuomo with his vaccine rollout efforts in calls with local officials. As we covered in yesterday’s brief, the sexual harassment allegations have led to calls for Cuomo’s resignation including from New York’s two senators. Bonus Read: “Cuomo’s Lieutenant Drops a Word From Her Vocabulary: ‘Cuomo,’” (Politico).

Treasury Secretary Yellen Pushes for Global Minimum Tax on Corporations to Pay for Biden Agenda

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is pushing for a global minimum tax on corporations to help pay for President Biden’s domestic agenda, according to a report in the Washington Post on Monday (WaPo). The Post writes, “Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is working with her counterparts worldwide to forge an agreement on a global minimum tax on multinational corporations, as the White House looks for revenue to help pay for President Biden’s domestic agenda. The effort, which would involve a fraught and challenging global negotiation of tax laws, could prove one of Yellen’s biggest policy legacies if it succeeds. It also could prove central to Biden’s presidency.” The concept has drawn criticism from some tax experts and Republicans who fear it will negatively impact American competitiveness. As we covered in yesterday’s brief with the passage of the $1.9 trillion Covid stimulus package financed largely by borrowing, debates are growing over how to pay for the next items on Biden’s agenda.

Democrats Look to Stimulus Package to Boost Election Hopes

Democrats are hoping that the passage of the $1.9 trillion stimulus package on party-line votes with no Republican support will aid them in coming elections, the New York Times reports (NYT). The Times writes, “Democratic leaders are making one of the biggest electoral bets in years — that the stimulus will be so transformational for Americans across party lines and demographic groups that Democrats will be able to wield it as a political weapon next year in elections against Republicans, who voted en masse against the package.” President Biden has expressed criticism of the Obama administration’s failure to sufficiently tout its economic relief efforts, suggesting that he will do it differently. Biden stated, “We didn’t adequately explain what we had done,” adding, “Barack was so modest, he didn’t want to take, as he said, a ‘victory lap.’” Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA), who won his senate seat in a 2020 special election while touting that he would help bring $2,000 checks as part of a stimulus package, and who faces reelection in 2022, stated, “This is absolutely something I will campaign on next year.” Senator Gary Peters (D-MI), who heads the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee said the Democrats will go on the “offense” over the package, adding, “Every Republican said no in a time of need.” The effort may work, and advocates point to polling suggesting the stimulus package is more popular than the 2009 stimulus effort.

Bonus Read: “‘Most Influential Voice’: Warren’s Network Spreads Throughout Biden Administration,” (Politico);  “Why Newsom Still Isn’t Getting the Vaccine,” (Politico).

U.S. Economy

Housing Market Surges, But Looks Different From the 2006 Pre-Crash Surge

The U.S. housing market surged in 2020, but the surge looks different from the surge in 2006 that preceded the housing market crash, according to a report Monday in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The Journal writes, “The residential real-estate market is on its biggest tear since 2006, just before the housing bubble burst and set off a global recession. Yet in nearly every meaningful way, today’s market is the inverse of the previous boom.” In 2020, housing sales reached their highest point in 14 years since right before the last crash in 2006. However, according to the Journal, “The current housing boom is far more stable than the last one and poses fewer systemic risks, economists say. A downside: There are more barriers to entry, and it’s more difficult for buyers who aren’t already homeowners to make that first purchase.” Those watching the market point to numerous trends they believe will ensure stability, including that “Millennials, the largest living adult generation, continue to age into their prime homebuying years and plunk down savings for homes. At the same time, the market is critically undersupplied. New-home construction hasn’t kept up with household demand, and homeowners are holding on to their houses longer. Buyers are competing fiercely for a limited number of homes.” The Journal adds that “Mortgage lenders, meanwhile, are maintaining tight standards—buyers are drawn to the market by historically low interest rates, not by easy access to credit. Rising home values also mean that even if homeowners can’t afford their mortgage payments, they can likely sell their homes for a profit rather than face foreclosure.”

U.S. Society

Bonus Read: “Taylor Swift, Beyoncé Break Records at Intimate Grammys,” (WSJ). 

Facebook Says It Will Contribute to Vaccination Push

Facebook announced Monday that it will be adding new features to help connect users to coronavirus vaccines, including an in-app tool guiding users to nearby vaccine clinics, a Covid-19 information center in its Instagram photo-sharing platform, and chat bots in WhatsApp that share vaccination information (NYT). The company continues to face criticism for fueling Covid-19 misinformation, though it has taken steps to flag false vaccine claims (NYT).

Audio Interactions Grow Amid Limited In-Person Interaction

With many Americans avoiding in-person interaction due to the pandemic and related restrictions, people are increasingly turning to audio as a medium for receiving information but also for interaction (WaPo). The Washington Post notes the various means by which people are turning to audio from Discord groups to the new app Clubhouse, which hosts interactive audio conversations, to podcasts and audiobooks. The Post writes, “With the fall in in-person interactions and blurrier lines among work, home and alone time, record numbers of people have turned to nonmusic audio content during the past year. It can be a welcome mental health break, an attempt to escape the monotony of pandemic life or a way to socialize remotely. The voices can break up endless stretches of quiet or block out inescapable chatter. And after months of working remotely and binge-watching on apps like Netflix to pass the time, some people are getting sick of screens — or perhaps running out of decent things to watch.” According to a report from Edison Research and Triton Digital, 176 million Americans listen to audio online at least once a week, up from 169 million in 2020. The report also found that the number listening to podcasts at least once a week increased 17%.

Bonus Read: “How the Pandemic is Reshaping Education,” (WaPo).

Analysis & Arguments

Adam Serwer writes on Biden’s avoidance of punishment as a frame for his agenda (Atlantic).

Colin Gordon writes that federalism’s deference to states has disrupted public health efforts (Dissent).

Lizzie Widdicombe writes that homeschooling pods might survive the end of the pandemic (New Yorker).

Jennifer Gonnerman writes on how the pandemic has affected the employees of a five-star New York hotel (New Yorker).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

Read previous briefs here and stream and subscribe to our weekly podcast here.

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