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What to Watch at the Strangest Fed Meeting in Years

By Vicky Ge Huang

 

The Federal Reserve's meeting this week is unfolding during an extraordinary political moment for the central bank, making it one of the strangest in years. The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point Wednesday at the conclusion of their meeting, spurred by a recent downshift in job growth. Investors will focus on the central bank's rate projections through year-end and Chair Jerome Powell's stance when he answers questions on the economy. Personnel drama dominated the buildup to the meeting. Democrats introduced a Senate bill on Tuesday aimed at drawing a firmer line between the White House and the Fed after Trump adviser Stephen Miran was sworn in as a governor. And an appeals court upheld an injunction allowing governor Lisa Cook to attend while the administration tries to oust her.

 

Top News

Fed Divisions Thrust Powell Into Uncharted Territory

Photo: Jim Urquhart/Reuters

This week’s Federal Reserve meeting is shaping up to be one of the strangest in years.

The Fed’s expected rate cut Wednesday may be straightforward, but Chair Jerome Powell must navigate contentious disagreements over future policy amid a spectacle over who will succeed him when his term ends in May.

Analysts see the potential for Powell to face dissent on an anticipated quarter-percentage-point cut from both sides—from Trump-appointed officials including Miran who say tight policy risks needlessly slowing the economy, and from regional Fed bank presidents who are uneasy about stimulating the economy when inflation has stalled out well above the Fed’s target.

  • What to Watch at the Strangest Fed Meeting in Years
  • Senate Democrats Target Miran’s Dual Fed and White House Roles
  • What to Know About Stephen Miran, the Fed’s Newest Member
 

Bank of Canada Likely to Cut Rates as Economy, Job Market Weakens

Most economists expect the Bank of Canada to resume interest-rate cuts on Wednesday after a six-month pause, as the economy stumbled under the weight of Trump administration tariffs and the unemployment rate climbed to a postpandemic high.

  • Canadian Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said Tuesday that he would present the government's annual budget plan to legislators on Nov. 4. The budget plan is likely to spell out the economic and fiscal strategy for the Mark Carney-led Liberal government over the next 12 months. Both Champagne and Prime Minister Carney have said the budget plan would incorporate austerity measures, with the aim of freeing up cash to be used to entice private-sector investment in major infrastructure and resource projects.
 

Indonesia’s Central Bank Delivers Surprise Rate Cut

Indonesia’s central bank surprised markets by continuing its rate-cutting cycle amid domestic political uncertainty. Bank Indonesia lowered its benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% on Wednesday, following back-to-back cuts in July and August.

 

U.S. Economy

The Two-Speed Economy Is Back

There are two economies in the U.S. right now, and they are moving in different directions. High-earners and older Americans are faring better than ever, while fortunes are sliding again for low-wage and young workers.

Import Prices Rose Unexpectedly in August

Import prices in the U.S. rose unexpectedly last month, driven by nonfuel imports, Labor Department data showed Tuesday. Import prices were 0.3% higher on month in August after a downwardly revised 0.2% rise in July.

Retail Sales Rose More Than Expected in August

 

 
 

 

Retail sales rose 0.6% in August from July, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That was higher than the 0.3% increase that economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected.

Fired BLS Chief Breaks Silence, Calls Dismissal a ‘Dangerous Step’

In her first public comments since President Trump fired her, the former head of the government agency that measures inflation and job growth called her dismissal “a dangerous step” for the economy.

 

Forward Guidance

Wednesday (all times ET)

8:30 a.m.: New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
9:45 a.m.: Bank of Canada interest rate announcement
2 p.m.: Federal Reserve economic projections
2 p.m.: U.S. interest rate decision

Thursday

7 a.m.: UK interest rate decision
8:30 a.m.: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 a.m.: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
10 a.m.: Leading Indicators

 

Research

Another Inflation Wave Seen as Biggest Tail Risk: BofA Fund Manager Survey

A second inflation wave is considered the biggest tail risk--an event that has a low probability of happening--according to 26% of investors polled in Bank of America's global fund manager survey for September. This is closely followed by the risk of the U.S. Federal Reserve losing independence and U.S. dollar debasement, cited by 24% of those polled. Another 22% of investors cite a disorderly rise in bond yields. The risk of a trade war triggering a global recession is fading, with just 12% citing this as the biggest tail risk in September, down from 29% in August, BofA says in a press release accompanying the survey. — Jessica Fleetham

 

Basis Points

  • U.S. business inventories rose as expected in July, according to monthly Commerce Department figures published Tuesday. Inventories rose 0.2% on month, the same as in June, and matching expectations from economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. (Dow Jones Newswires)
  • Ocean shipping companies say importers and exporters won’t have to pay surcharges when new fees are imposed next month on Chinese ships at U.S. seaports.
  • U.K. annual inflation stayed at an elevated level in August, likely keeping the Bank of England on wait-and-see mode as it prepares to hold its key interest rate this week.
  • In the age of tariffs, Chinese automakers have been able to increase their share of global sales, now accounting for more than half of the electric-vehicles sold in the world.
  • The negative impact of higher tariffs on Japan has become more apparent, with the country’s exports staying weak in August as U.S.-bound shipments fell further.
 

About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.

 
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