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January 14, 2021 - Brief Issue 138

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Another Record Day for U.S. Covid-19 Deaths; World Death Toll Nears Two Million (Health & Science)

Johnson & Johnson to Release Covid-19 Vaccine Clinical Trial Results by Early February, But Production s Lagging (Health & Science)

U.K. Coronavirus Variant Found in Maryland (Health & Science)

CDC Report Finds Earlier and More Stringent Implementation of Covid-19 Prevention Methods Key to Saving Lives (Health & Science)

Analysis of Pediatric Covid-19 Hospitalizations Finds Concerning Trends (Health & Science)

Countries Plan to Use Sinovac Covid-19 Vaccine Despite Relatively Low Efficacy (Health & Science)

Operation Warp Speed Chief Moncef Slaoui to Step Down Following Biden Transition (Health & Science)

Public Trust Tumbles Worldwide (Around the World)

The Pandemic’s Second Year Could Be Even Tougher, Says WHO (Around the World)

Cuba Enters Partial Lockdown Amid Surge (Around the World)

U.K. Experiences Record Daily Death Toll (Around the World)

Switzerland Tightens Public Health Restrictions, But No Lockdown (Around the World)

China Sees First Covid-19 Death in Eight Months (Around the World)

Queensland Considers Quarantining People in Mining Camps (Around the World)

South Korea Acquits Sect Leader Over Coronavirus Surge (Around the World)

Biden, Senate Democrats Prepare to Push Stimulus Through Reconciliation (U.S. Government & Politics)

Target Posts Strong Holiday Sales Amid Pandemic (U.S. Economy)

Health & Science

There have been 23,078,350 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 384,784 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 271,097,812 tests and distributed 29,380,125 vaccine doses, with 10,278,462 people initiating vaccination (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 92,462,193 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,981,097 deaths. At least 51,110,587 people have recovered from the virus.

Another Record Day for U.S. Covid-19 Deaths; World Death Toll Nears Two Million

According to Johns Hopkins, the U.S. tallied more than 4,300 Covid-19 deaths in a single day on Tuesday. Two weeks into 2021, the U.S. has already experienced multiple record-breaking days, with five of the highest single-day death tolls occurring in the new year (AP, CNN). The seven-day average for Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is now over 3,300, and more than 380,000 have died since the start of the pandemic. Around the world, nearly two million people have died.

Experts say that the situation in the U.S. is likely to remain serious through the winter. However, they are hopeful that things could turn around in the summer. Dr. Paul Offitt, a member of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee, said that through a combination of mass vaccinations, warmer weather and new policies by the incoming administration, the U.S. could see marked improvement toward the middle of 2021.

Johnson & Johnson to Release Covid-19 Vaccine Clinical Trial Results by Early February, But Production is Lagging

If approved, the Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccine would become the first single-dose Covid-19 vaccine available in the United States. The company expects to be able to release data showing whether the vaccine is safe and effective by late January or early February. In addition to only requiring one shot, the vaccine can be stored in a normal refrigerator for several months, unlike the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, which require special storage. For these reasons, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is seen as critical to the U.S. effort in bringing an end to the pandemic.

However, the company is reported to be about two months behind its production schedule. In its deal with Operation Warp Speed, Johnson & Johnson agreed to produce 12 million doses by the end of February and deliver 100 million doses by the end of June. Pending FDA emergency authorization, Johnson & Johnson still expects to begin distributing vaccines throughout the U.S. starting in March. Officials have said the company is expected to catch up to its production goals sometime in April (NYT, Politico).

U.K. Coronavirus Variant Found in Maryland

The B117 Coronavirus variant, first detected in the U.K., has now been identified in a Maryland couple (WaPo). One of the spouses had recently traveled internationally, and both are now quarantined. The variant is concerning because it spreads 50-70% faster than the original strain, though there is no evidence that it causes more severe illness. The strain has been identified in at least 10 states over the past two weeks, but experts say it is likely more widespread than that. According to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Robert Redfield, the variant should be assumed to be present in every state.

CDC Report Finds Earlier and More Stringent Implementation of Covid-19 Prevention Methods Key to Saving Lives

A report published in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report analyzed data from 37 European countries to assess which mitigation policies were more effective at preventing loss of life (NYT). According to the report, timing and stringency of the policies strongly affected the mortality rate. Countries that imposed strict measures soon after experiencing outbreaks saw fewer deaths than those with looser guidelines or those who implemented mitigation policies later. According to the report, even small delays in implementing policies like border closures, stay-at-home orders and physical distancing directives resulted in large increases in loss of life. The researchers estimated that if the 26 countries with the most relaxed mitigation policies had followed the lead of countries with more stringent policies, approximately 74,000 deaths could have been prevented.  

Analysis of Pediatric Covid-19 Hospitalizations Finds Concerning Trends

A report published this week in the medical journal JAMA Pediatrics analyzed Covid-19 hospitalization trends in 22 U.S. states to assess pediatric hospitalizations (CIDRAP). Across all 22 states, the cumulative pediatric hospitalizations per 100,000 grew from 2.0 in May to 17.2 in November, representing a 760 percent increase. By contrast, cumulative adult hospitalizations grew by 300 percent during the same period. Hospitalizations varied widely by state and by time. For instance, pediatric hospitalizations increased by 4.3 and 1.0 per 100,000 in Hawaii and New Hampshire, respectively, but jumped by more than 30 per 100,000 in Arizona and South Dakota.

The authors of the study expressed concern over the trends in pediatric hospitalizations. They noted that, while adults make up a large majority of Covid-19 hospitalizations, children often require more specialized support, which may not be available in all areas of the country.

Countries Plan to Use Sinovac Covid-19 Vaccine Despite Relatively Low Efficacy

Despite relatively low efficacy results for a Covid-19 vaccine from Chinese drug developer Sinovac Biotech Ltd., several countries will be moving forward with the vaccine. As we reported yesterday, a large clinical trial from Brazil found that the vaccine was only 50.4 percent effective. Although this is on the low end of World Health Organization guidelines, it remains a practical option for many low- and middle-income countries. Doses of the vaccine are already being distributed in Indonesia, Brazil and Turkey, and at least 10 countries have ordered a total of over 380 million doses. The lower efficacy will mean that more people will need to be vaccinated before the countries begin to approach herd immunity. However, in contrast to the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines being distributed around Europe and the U.S., the vaccine is more cost effective and does not require specialized storage. Wealthier nations have also bought up a large portion of the more effective vaccines coming to market, leaving few options for countries that were unable to secure large orders of these vaccines (NYT, WSJ).

Operation Warp Speed Chief Moncef Slaoui to Step Down Following Biden Transition

Dr. Moncef Slaoui, the chief advisor for Operation Warp Speed, has submitted his letter of resignation at the Biden team’s request. Dr. Slaoui will remain in his position for another month to assist with the transition, but his contract will not be renewed (CNBC, Reuters). Operation Warp Speed, the U.S. government’s Covid-19 vaccine development program, helped to facilitate the fastest vaccine development in history, with two vaccines already authorized in the U.S. and another expected over the next few weeks. Dr. Slaoui has said he planned to step down from his role after two vaccines and two therapies for Covid-19 became available in the U.S., a milestone that was reached last month. He said he has decided to stay on to ensure a smooth transition but that “we’re getting close to the point where my value add is more limited.”

Bonus Read: “The World is Desperate for More Covid Vaccines,” (NYT).

Around the World

Public Trust Tumbles Worldwide 

Public trust in government, media and the private sector has plummeted worldwide amid the pandemic, according to a global survey. The Edelman Trust Barometer, which has tracked global public trust for two decades, found that 57% of people across 27 countries believed that leaders across all institutions are spreading falsehoods or exaggerations. “In a crisis, traditionally, you get quality information from government, and from media, and both of those are seen to have failed,” said Richard Edelman, whose Edelman communications group produces the survey. Business leaders fared somewhat better, with a majority nonetheless wanting CEOs to speak out on the pandemic’s impact, as well as on labor and societal issues. The most distrustful nation overall was Russia, while Japan and the U.S. followed in second and third places respectively (Reuters).

The Pandemic’s Second Year Could Be Even Tougher, Says WHO

The second year of the coronavirus pandemic may prove more difficult than in 2020, Mike Ryan, the WHO’s top emergencies official, said Wednesday. “We are going into a second year of this, it could even be tougher given the transmission dynamics and some of the issues that we are seeing,” he said. The winter in particular will likely continue to challenge doctors and health officials amid the spread of the new, more infectious B117 strain. “Certainly in the northern hemisphere, particularly in Europe and North America we have seen that sort of perfect storm of the season - coldness, people going inside, increased social mixing and a combination of factors that have driven increased transmission in many, many countries,” Ryan said. According to the WHO, about 5 million new cases were reported globally last week, an increase after two weeks of diminishing transmission (Reuters).

Americas

Cuba Enters Partial Lockdown Amid Surge

Cuba shuttered schools and public transport throughout much of the island on Wednesday as the nation experiences its worst-yet outbreak of the coronavirus. The new measures came after six consecutive days of new daily records, including 550 infections on Wednesday. Cuba had been praised for largely containing the outbreak last year. While its current daily new case rate of 43 per million is around half of the world’s average, that number stood at .1 for most of 2020. The surge is being blamed on poor adherence to quarantine rules on the part of visitors from the U.S. and other hard-hit countries, who began arriving in Cuba in November after the border was reopened. Critics also accuse a combination of U.S. sanctions and poor centralized economic planning for long lines at supermarkets that are interfering with social distancing. Cuba has yet to begin vaccinating its citizens, with authorities hoping that at least one of four locally-designed vaccines will be ready for use in the first half of 2021 (Reuters).

Bonus Read: "As Coronavirus Stalks Brazil's Amazon, Many Die Untreated at Home,” (Reuters).

Europe 

U.K. Experiences Record Daily Death Toll

The U.K. tallied 1,564 new Covid-19 deaths on Wednesday, the highest number seen since the start of the pandemic. The daily new case count was 47,525 new infections, up from the 45,533 seen on Tuesday but still considerably lower than the record than the 68,053 seen on January 8, leading to hopes that lockdown measures are having the intended effect. Yvonne Doyle, the Medical Director for Public Health England, said on Twitter that Britain’s second coronavirus wave has now killed more people than the first one last year. “With each passing day, more and more people are tragically losing their lives to this terrible virus, and today we have reported the highest number of deaths on a single day since the pandemic began,” said Doyle. Prime Minister Boris Johnson told lawmakers that around 32,000 people are currently hospitalized, around 70% more than at the peak of the first wave. “[Health workers] now really are fighting very, very hard to contain this pandemic after months and months in which they’ve really been working flat out and I think the strain is colossal,” he said (Reuters).

Switzerland Tightens Public Health Restrictions, But No Lockdown

Switzerland intensified public health restrictions on Wednesday, but fell short of introducing a full lockdown, as case numbers rise across Europe. Shops selling non-essential items will close from Monday, while employers will be ordered to instruct employees to work from home where possible. Private gatherings will be limited to five people, although schools will remain open. Restaurants, and cultural and sport sites will remain closed until the end of February. While Switzerland has not experienced the record daily new cases seen elsewhere in Europe, authorities are mindful that numbers are likely to spike without pre-emptive action. “The government is aware that the measures decided today will have a significant economic impact. We did not take this decision lightly,” Swiss President Guy Parmelin told reporters (Reuters).

Asia-Pacific

China Sees First Covid-19 Death in Eight Months 

A coronavirus patient in Hebei province was the first person to die of Covid-19 in China in eight months. The death occurred as Chinese health officials battle the worst outbreak of the disease since March, which was the same time that the pandemic in the source country of the coronavirus was coming under control. Around 20 million people are currently under lockdown in northern China, with Hebei provincial capital Shijiazhuang hosting the epicenter of the current outbreak. A state of emergency has also been issued in Heilongjiang province in China’s far northeast, with residents urged to avoid leaving the province to prevent the reintroduction of the virus to the region. The government reported a nationwide total of 138 new cases on Thursday.

The news of the outbreak comes as a much-awaited WHO team arrived in Wuhan, where the virus was first detected, to investigate the origins of the pandemic. The 10-person team arrived on Thursday and will quarantine for 14 days before beginning their investigation. The mission to Wuhan has been stalled by Chinese authorities for months amid political sensitivities related to the pandemic, with Chinese state media continuing to push the unfounded narrative that the virus originated outside the country (Al Jazeera).

Queensland Considers Quarantining People in Mining Camps

The premier of Australia’s third-largest state said she was considering the use of remote mining camps as quarantine centers for international arrivals. “I think with this new strain, we have to put all options on the table,” said Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, referring to the highly infectious B117 variant. The proposal follows a three-day lockdown in Brisbane after the strain was discovered in an employee at a hotel used to quarantine International travelers. With local transmission of the pandemic mostly stopped in the second half of last year, incidents at such hotels have emerged as the typical source of new outbreaks. If the mining camp option is approved, Queensland will not be the first region in Australia to adopt the measure. The Northern Territory has been using an old mining camp near Darwin to house international arrivals since last October. But the health chief of New South Wales, home of Sydney, said that the public was apprehensive. “There’s strong views held in our public health team it makes sense to continue to have the hotel quarantine arrangements we currently have,” said New South Wales Health Minister Brad Hazzard, adding that providing support staff and transporting infected travelers would pose challenges (Reuters). 

South Korea Acquits Sect Leader Over Coronavirus Surge

A sect leader in South Korea has been acquitted on charges of hindering the government’s pandemic response. Lee Man-hee, the 89-year-old leader of a Christian offshoot movement known as the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, found himself immersed in controversy last year when it emerged that his church, which is often considered a doomsday cult, accounted for more than half of the nation’s early coronavirus cases. Lee apologized in March, publicly prostrating to reporters in contrition. He also claimed that his followers were reluctant to report their involvement in the church owing to social stigma surrounding the sect. In August, he was taken into custody for allegedly providing false records of church gatherings and fabricated lists of members. Although acquitted on Wednesday, Lee received a three-year suspended sentence on a separate embezzlement charge (Al Jazeera). 

Bonus Read: “China’s Economy Powers Ahead While the Rest of the World Reels,” (WSJ).

U.S. Government & Politics

Bonus Read: “Flawed Vaccine Rollout Will Create Political Stars — and Has-Beens,” (Politico).

Biden, Senate Democrats Prepare to Push Stimulus Through Reconciliation

President Elect Joe Biden and Senate Democratic leadership are preparing to pass a Covid stimulus bill through the reconciliation process, which would allow the Democratic majority to potentially pass the bill without Republican input (Politico, WSJ). Politico cited five Senate aides on the consideration of reconciliation as a process and writes, “The package, which Biden said late last week will be ‘in the trillions of dollars,’ is expected to provide direct relief to Americans through stimulus checks and give federal funding to help cash-strapped state, local and tribal governments distribute a vaccine and survive the most dire phase of the pandemic to date. But, freed of the need to compromise with Republicans, Democrats are also discussing including other priorities, including investing in infrastructure, moving to sustainable forms of energy and potentially even expanding Obamacare subsidies.” The reconciliation process would allow the Democrats to pass the bill without obtaining the bipartisan support that would be necessary to overcome a filibuster without further restricting the filibuster’s use by changing Senate rules. However, Democrats suggest they are still looking to gain bipartisan support. Soon to be Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), stated, “When and where we can, we will strive to make this important work bipartisan,” but added, “However, if our Republican colleagues decide not to partner with us in our efforts to address these issues, we will not let that stop progress.”

U.S. Federal Agencies Pushed Chinese Covid-19 Tests Despite Warnings Over Security Risks

According to the Wall Street Journal, at least two federal agencies pushed Covid-19 tests from BGI Group, a Chinese genetics company, despite warnings from U.S. intelligence that the tests posed security risks. Early in 2020, the company and several other entities approached at least 11 states in an effort to push BGI products into government-run laboratories. A foundation linked to a former U.S. president and a company linked to a U.A.E. spy were among those promoting the company’s products.

In March, FBI special agent Ed You, along with other intelligence officials, issued a warning against using BGI products, saying the company had a history of misusing personal data. Some gene sequencing machines that BGI tried to sell to the U.S. can be used to record DNA information. The testing kits themselves do not pose the same risk; however, intelligence officials were concerned about the company establishing partnerships with U.S. laboratories. 

Despite warnings from intelligence officials, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted emergency use authorization to Covid-19 test kits from BGI Americas, the company’s U.S. subsidiary. The FDA did not comment on the decision. BGI testing kits were reportedly used in Nevada, though Nevada did not purchase sequencing machines. 

Biden Team Criticizes Trump Administration’s Decision to Expand Vaccine Eligibility

Earlier this week, the Trump administration issued a recommendation to states to begin vaccinating anyone over 65 as well as those with certain comorbid conditions. Advisers to President-elect Joe Biden criticized the move, saying that the expansion dramatically increases the number of people eligible for a vaccine and could strain vaccine supplies and overwhelm sign-up systems (WaPo). Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said that the decision was made to speed the vaccine rollout, which was proceeding more slowly than anticipated. Some jurisdictions have had difficulty finding top-priority vaccine candidates, which Azar believes has contributed to the delay.

U.S. Economy

Target Posts Strong Holiday Sales Amid Pandemic

On Wednesday, the retail giant Target announced that its sales rose over the holiday season despite the pandemic (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “Comparable sales, those from stores or digital channels operating for at least 12 months, rose 17% in November and December from a year earlier. Store-based sales increased 4.2%, while digital sales more than doubled during that period, driven by same-day online pickup and delivery orders, the company said.” Target’s CEO stated, “The momentum in our business continued in the holiday season with notable market share gains across our entire product portfolio.” The announcement comes amid a mixed set of reports on holiday sales from retailers more broadly.

Analysis & Arguments

In a video op-ed, Lucy King explores the personal impact of the pandemic-driven rent and housing crisis (NYT).

Daniel Mahardige examines how U.S. decisions during the pandemic helped create a homelessness crisis (Nation).

U.S. Representative Lisa Blunt Rochester writes on asking colleagues to wear a mask during the Capitol siege and being laughed at for doing so (Atlantic).

The New York Times reports on how many jobless individuals are turning to selling nude photos online yet are still struggling amid the pandemic (NYT).

The National Endowment for Democracy publishes a series on global insights on Covid-19 and the information space (NED).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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