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Asia in Review

No. 43, October/2019, 4

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

The AiR team is presenting you the fourth issue of 'Asia in Review’ (AiR) in October with the latest important events and developments in geopolitics and international relations as well as constitutional politics, law reform and governance in Asia.

I wish you an informative read.

With the best wishes,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU/

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in South East Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Background Reading

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China/Hong Kong: Unrest continues

(dql) Anti-government protests on Sunday and on Monday went violent as Hong Kong endured the 20th consecutive weekend of unrest. [New York Times] [South China Morning Post]

Signaling continuing discontent with embattled Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam, opposition lawmakers earlier last week thwarted her annual address at the first session of the city’s legislature since the start of the protest in June forcing her to resort to a pre-recorded speech in which she reiterated her commitment to “One country, two systems” and rejection of demands for Hong Kong’s independence. In a subsequent press conference Lam also denied electoral reforms for the city, one of the five core demands of protesters. [BBC]

Meanwhile, referring to the growing violence of the protests Beijing accused foreign forces of “encouraging this sort of violence in the streets with the aim of destabilising Hong Kong, sowing chaos… to wipe out the historic progress made since the one-country-two-systems policy was applied.” [Hong Kong Free Press]

South Korea: Clash between political parties over prosecution reform goes on despite of resignation of Justice Minister

(dql) Last week AiR reported on the resignation of Justice Minister Cho Kuk amid escalating controversies surrounding his family. In the latest development of these controversies the prosecution has requested an arrest warrant for his wife on various charges of document forgery, embezzlement and violations of the capital market law. [AiR No. 42, October/2019, 3] [Alzajeera]

However, the quarrel between the ruling Democratic Party (DP) and the main opposition Liberty Korea Party (LKP) over the reform of the country’s prosecution continues unabated, with both sides staging rallies and counter-rallies. While supporters of Cho staged its 10th rally on Saturday to demand the abolishment of the LKP and the speedy implementation of reform of the prosecution, the LKP held a rally on the same day to express its rejection of the reform as it is currently proposed by the government with the establishment of a new agency to probe public officials as core part of the reform. [Hankyoreh] [Korea Herald]

Japan: Upper House election held in “state of unconstitutionality”

(dql) A court declared in a ruling last week that the election for the House of Councillors in July was held in a “state of unconstitutionality” citing vote-value disparities between urban and rural constituencies. Dismissing demands of plaintiffs, the court, however, did not annul the election results in three districts arguing that the parliament's failure to address the issue was within its discretion and not illegal. [Japan News]

Mongolia added to FATF “grey list”

(dql) The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) last week put Mongolia on its “grey list” of nations whose financial systems are considered to have deficiencies in anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism financing regimes. [Bloomberg]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

Bangladesh: Some Rohingyas to be relocated to island as situation in refugee camps further deteriorates

(ls/nj) About 6,000 to 7,000 Rohingya living in Bangladesh refugee camps have apparently agreed to being relocated to Bhashan Charan, an island in the Bay of Bengal. Bangladesh has been planning since last year to relocate Rohingya to the flood-prone site, which is an hour by boat from the mainland. In the past half a century, powerful cyclones have killed hundreds of thousands of people in the Meghna river estuary where the island is located. [Straits Times]

Latest attempts to persuade Rohingya refugees to return to their home country by Bangladesh authorities failed. Authorities, therefore, have imposed more restrictions on Rohingya, such as confiscating mobile phones and banning Rohingya children from local schools, to speed up the return process. [Al Jazeera]

Following the incident of the killing of a ruling-party politician for which Rohingya refugees are held responsible for, security status in the camps in Cox´s Bazar remains critical. On Monday a young Rohingya was murdered by another fellow. Investigations revealed that an earlier dispute between the victim and the offender could have led to the killing. [The Daily Star]

Pakistan: First blasphemy conviction under new cybercrime law

(ls) The first person has been found guilty in Pakistan for online blasphemy under the country’s Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act 2016. A special court sentenced the man to five-year imprisonment for posting blasphemous content on social media. Last year, the Pakistani Supreme Court had acquitted Asia Bibi, the first woman to be sentenced to death under Pakistan's blasphemy laws, in a high-profile case that polarized the society. [Free Press Journal]

Money-laundering and terrorism financing: Pakistan remains under investigation as Sri Lanka is white-listed

(ls) Pakistan remains on the grey list of countries that have not yet fully complied with recommendations made by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) vis-à-vis anti-money laundering and combating financing of terrorism (AML/CFT). The FATF is an intergovernmental organization that develop policies to combat money laundering and terrorism financing. It monitors through "peer reviews" of member countries. Placement on the grey list is a warning for a country that it may be put on a “blacklist” in case of its failure to take effective measures. Currently, only Iran and North Korea are in this lowest category. [Dawn] [Economic Times 1]

Sri Lanka, however, has been removed from the grey list. According to the FATF, the country made significant progress in addressing the strategic AML/CFT deficiencies identified earlier. It will therefore be relieved from the FATF’s close monitoring procedures. [Economic Times]

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Singaporean jailed for financing terrorism after sending funds to Islamist preacher

(jk) A Singaporean man was sentenced to just over two years in jail for financing terrorism after he sent some US$850 to a radical Islamic preacher. He was arrested earlier last year under Singapore’s Internal Security Act, which allows for detention without trial for up to two years, as he was "radicalised" and intended to "undertake armed violence in Syria", according to a court statement. [Channel News Asia]

Malaysia: Anwar and the Prime Minister: continued rumours of transition difficulties

(jk) Amidst regular meetings between Anwar Ibrahim and the PM in Malaysia, rumours are not going away that the planned leadership transition from current PM Mahathir to Anwar Ibrahim is far from certain. Anwar is supposed to take over before the next general election, to be held by 2023, but rumours that this agreement will not be abided by have been strong since the deal was made.

The latest suspicions arose after it was claimed that recent calls to unite Malay parties from government and opposition are part of a greater plan to keep Anwar out of office. While a lot of the rumours are just that and many "moves" are possibly overstated in the heat of Malay politics, the recent agreement to cooperate between two former arch-rivals UMNO and PAS has certainly sparked fear of increased racial polarisation. [No. 38, September/2019, 3] [The Straits Times] [Malaysia Chronicle] The agreement builds on the allegation that the Pakatan Harapan government is allegedly dominated by the Chinese, secular DAP (Democratic Action Party).

Indonesia increases security measures for Jokowi`s second term of presidency

(jk/nj) With the presidential second term starting October 20, Indonesia remained on high alert around Joko Widodo´s inauguration. Tensions remain high following heavy protests referring to the passing of controversial bills into laws as reported previously, as well as the recent stabbing attack on chief security minister Wiranto. [The Star]  [The Straits Times]. The stabbing prompted the arrest of 36 suspects by the police, all with alleged links to the local terrorist group Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD).  [The Jakarta Post] [Antara News]

The protests that happened across Indonesia in September saw thousands of people demanding to stop any efforts which could weaken the country’s anti-corruption body, the KPK, as well as efforts to introduce a new criminal code that includes penalizing extramarital sex and insulting the president. During the protests police used teargas and water cannons leading to hundreds of injuries and the death of three students. Activists claim that at least one student died from a gunshot fired by police. As a result, people now demand to introduce independent investigations concerning the police´s involvement by Indonesian President Widodo. [South China Morning Post]

For an assessment on Jokowi’s second-term Priorities and Challenges based on an interview with the Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs, see [ISEAS]

Indonesia: Update on President Widodo's plans to move the country´s capital from Jakarta to Borneo

(nj) Plans to move Indonesia´s capital from Jakarta to East Kalimantan - located on the island of Borneo will cost the country about US$ 33 billion. According to East Kalimantan governor the project depends on the financial support from China and other countries, like Japan, to provide a solid infrastructure. With a relocation from Jakarta to Kalimantan, Widodo is looking to escape the environmental challenges the capital is facing right now. Whereas Jakarta suffers from high air pollution, East Kalimantan is rich in natural resources like oil, gas, timber and oil palms. Furthermore, Jakarta is more susceptible to floods and is among the world's fastest sinking capitals.

Beijing already invested a little over US$ 60 million for highway constructions. In return, Chinese manufacturing companies seek to compete on Indonesian markets but local suppliers fear a fast developing monopoly of Chinese. [The South China Morning Post]

PNG: Bougainville independence vote to go ahead

(jk) The vote in Papua New Guinea’s autonomous region of Bougainville, which is feared to trigger separation negotiations to create a new nation, will go ahead as per the agreement between the Government of Papua New Guinea and the Autonomous Bougainville Government despite having been delayed twice over funding issues. The vote, now to be held later next month and in December, is not binding and the final say on independence will remain with the Government of Papua New Guinea. To overcome a funding gap, the United States, Australia, New Zealand and Japan, added around US$2 million to the US$5+ million  that PNG has contributed.

The widely expected outcome of the referendum is that the people of Bougainville will vote for some form of independence by a large margin, its anticipated success as an independent nation state however is widely disputed.  [Reuters] [Lowy Institute for background]

Thailand: Trafficker gets record 374-year jail sentence but new report paints a dark picture: 99% of traffickers flout court orders 

(jk) A Thai man has received a record jail sentence of 374 years for child trafficking in Thailand. The case in which a man has lured children into his house in order to record and then sell child abuse material was the second trafficking case in Thailand in which offenders received a sentence of more than 300 years in jail, however courts capped actual jailtime at 50 years on both occasions. [South China Morning Post]

Despite instances of successful sentencing such as this, a new Thomson Reuters Foundation report has found that human traffickers in Thailand have ignored court orders to compensate victims in more than 99% of cases in recent years.  Thai courts have ordered pay-outs of over US$4.3 million for damages caused in over 1300 cases since 2014, but the money was only paid in five cases, highlighting a wider problem with the rule of law, enforcement and accountability. [Reuters]

Thailand: Future Forward Party standing alone in Parliament

(jk) Thailand's parliament saw a couple of important debates take place this past week. Firstly, the government debated and defended its emergency decree that put two army units under His Majesty the King’s direct control [see Asia in Review No. 41, October/2019, 2]. The second important debate regarded the government’s budget of 3.2 trillion baht for the 2020 fiscal year with voting taking place on its first reading.

As for the troop transfer, all but one party - the Future Forward Party (FFP)- voted in favour of the decree. FFP Co-party leader Piyabutr Saengkanokkul said it was issued in an unnecessary haste and bypassed the usual scrutiny in Parliament, but the bill was passed by 376 to 70, with two MPs abstaining. The matter is highly sensitive due to the involvement of the monarchy in the issue and FFP's lone stand that even isolated it within the opposition is yet another sign of its stance against some of the traditional power structures in Thailand. [Khaosod English]

Party leader Thanathorn, who is still suspended from his MP duties, in the meantime appeared in court for the beginning of his trial brought against him by the Election Commission of Thailand regarding the question of him holding shares in a media company and therefore not having been eligible to run for MP in the elections earlier this year. The ruling is expected to be made later in November. [Bangkok Post 1]

The budget-bill passed through first reading of Thai parliament with 251 votes in favor and 234 abstentions. The entire opposition had announced to abstain beforehand.[Bangkok Post 2]

Facebook launches a third-party fact-checking programme in Thailand

(jk) According to Facebook, it will work with Agence France-Presse (AFP) and the International Fact Checking Network which provides certification "to improve the quality and authenticity of stories in the News Feed." With the help of the programme, AFP reviews and rates the accuracy of stories on Facebook in Thailand which will affect the priorities of a story in a newsfeed or warn individuals who want to share items if a story has been flagged. Facebook says it looks forward to" exploring more opportunities to expand this scheme locally". [Bangkok Post]

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China-USA tensions set to rise over WTO case and Hong Kong-related legislations of House of Representatives

(dql) Amid positive statements on both Chinese and US side on progress in trade talks [Straits Times] [South China Morning Post], including on the issue of a dispute resolution mechanism, China is seeking the World Trade Organization’s permission for 2.4 billion USD in retaliatory sanctions against the United States for failing to comply with a WTO ruling dating back to the Obama-era on tariffs Washington put on Chinese solar panels, wind towers, and steel cylinders. [Channel News Asia]

Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives last week passed by unanimous voice vote four pieces of legislation, risking to increase tensions between the two countries: the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, requiring the U.S. secretary of state to certify annually Hong Kong’s autonomy in order to continue to enjoy special treatment that has allowed it to be a major financial center; the Protect Hong Kong Act, banning commercial exports of military and crowd-control items that Hong Kong’s police could use against demonstrators; a non-binding resolution which recognizes the city’s  relationship to the United States, slams Beijing’s “interference” in its affairs, and supports Hong Kong residents’ right to protest; and another non-binding House resolution praising Canada’s actions related to Washington’s request to extradite Huawei’s CFO Meng Wanzhou, who was arrested in Canada in December. [Reuters]

In response, Beijing and Chinese state media denounced the House’ passage of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act as a interference in China’s internal affairs, demanding the US to “immediately stop pushing the Hong Kong-related act.” [Global Times] [The Guardian]

In a related development, China’s Defense Minister, in thinly veiled warning against the United States at the Xiangshan Forum in Beijing, warned that “[i]nterference in the affairs of other regions, and the internal affairs of others, inciting colour revolutions, and attempts to overthrow the lawful government of other countries are the true causes of wars and turbulence in some regions.” [Straits Times 2]

This year’s Beijing Xiangshan Forum –  a conference on regional security and defence issues and China’s answer to Shangri-La Dialogue security forum – from 20-22 October was attended by more than 1,300 people, including 23 defense ministers, representatives from 76 official delegations and eight international organizations, as well as experts and observers. [Xinhua]

Chinese-Turkish irritations over Ankara’s military offensive in Syria

(dql) Irritations in the relations between China and Turkey over Ankara’s ground offensive in northern Syria are emerging, after Beijing last week urged Ankara to stop its military action and to return to diplomacy. The Turkish Ambassador to China rejected the criticism and called on Beijing to understand and support his country’s fight against terrorism.  [Economic Times][South China Morning Post]

In the recent past China-Turkey relations have been burdened by Beijing’s treatment of  the Turkic Uighur ethnic minority in Xinjiang.

China-Japan relations: First joint maritime exercise in 11 years

(dql) In a first since 11 years, Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force conducted goodwill exercises with China's navy involving the Japan’s destroyer Samidare and China’s guided-missile destroyer Taiyuan which tested radio communications and other coordination procedures. [NHK]

Japan not to join U.S. coalition to protect Middle East shipping

(dql) In an attempt to balance its relations with both the USA and Iran, Japan announced last week that it will not be part of any U.S. coalition to protect merchant vessels in Middle Eastern waterways, but will instead send a separate force of ships and planes to guard ships supplying Japan from the key oil-producing region. [Reuters]

In a latest development, Japan is reportedly considering sending two Self-Defense Force vessels to help protect Middle East waterways, with the Gulf of Oman, the northern part of the Arabian Sea and the eastern part of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, as potential locations for the dispatch. [Japan Times]

South Korea to increase defense spending and cooperate with China in denuclearization of Korean peninsula

(dql) Amid stalled talks between Seoul and Pyongyang, President Moon Jae-in announced this week that South Korea will increase defense spending by seven percent to over 42 billion USD in 2020 to safeguard the country’s “self-determination” by “strong defense”. [i24News/AFP]

The announcement comes after earlier this month North Korea tested an underwater-launched ballistic missile, one of the most provocative among the various weapons tests in the recent months. [AiR No. 41, October/2019, 2]

Meanwhile, Beijing and Seoul on Monday agreed on a joint effort to push for the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. The agreement was reached at the first bilateral high-level defence talks since 2014 after their suspension in the wake of tensions over Seoul’s plans to allow the deployment of the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system. [South China Morning Post]

Taiwan builds Kamikaze drones against China

(dql) Taiwan is reportedly building suicide drones aimed at striking targets in China in the case of an attack by the People’s Liberation Army. The Chien Hsiang drone targets in particular the S-400 missile system China is acquiring from Russia. [Taiwan News]

China's defence minister, meanwhile, declared on Monday at the Xiangshan Forum that resolving the “Taiwan question” was China’s greatest national interest, adding that no force could prevent China's "reunification", while separatist activities will go nowhere. [Voice of America China, in Chinese]

Kashmir: Increased violence, continued blocking of mobile services

(ls) In a recent spate of violence in Kashmir, Indian security forces killed three separatists, while suspected militants shot dead two people on Wednesday. In a separate incident in south Kashmir’s Pulwama district, suspected militants killed a migrant worker from central India. [Reuters 1]

Over the weekend, India claimed that Pakistan shot across the border in northern Kashmir’s Tangdhar region, killing two Indian soldiers and one civilian. On the other side, the Pakistani Armed Forces said that one of its soldiers and three civilians had died by shots from Indian forces. As a consequence, Islamabad summoned the Indian envoy and offered to have diplomats from the U.N. Security Council’s five permanent members visit the border. [Reuters 2]

Meanwhile, after more than two months, Indian authorities briefly lifted its blocking of mobile telecommunication services in the Kashmir valley, allowing the region’s roughly seven million people again to use their cellphones for calls. Internet services remained blocked. [Washington Post] However, only a few hours later, the services were stopped again as a “precautionary measure”. [The Hindu]

Earlier last week, over a dozen women, including former Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah's sister and daughter were arrested for holding a sit-in in Srinagar against the ending of the state's special status. The women academicians and activists, most of them aged between 60 and 80 years, were released on Thursday after furnishing personal bonds. Farooq Abdullah has been placed under house arrest and charged under the Public Safety Act. [NDTV]

Shots at India-Bangladesh border result in death of Indian border guard

(ls) In a rare clash between India and Bangladesh, officers of the Bangladesh Border Guard (BGB) killed an Indian border guard last week. After an Indian fisherman had been detained by the Bangladeshi officers, the situation got out of hand and resulted in what the Bangladeshi side described as shots in self-defence. The Indian Border Security Force (BSF) said the shots were unprovoked. India and Bangladesh, which generally have close ties, share a border stretching more than 4,000 km, where clashes sometimes occur over immigration into India from Bangladesh. [Reuters] [Economic Times]

United States and Bangladesh to conclude agreements for closer military cooperation

(ls) The United States is planning to conclude a General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) and an Acquisition Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) with Bangladesh. The agreements are meant to expand opportunities for defense trade, information sharing and military-to-military cooperation between the two countries, which already have ongoing cooperation on the training of Bangladeshi peacekeepers, counter-terrorism exercises, disaster response and other trainings. The U.S. has GSOMIA agreements with 76 countries and ACSA agreements with more than a hundred. [Daily Star]

India and Philippines enhance navy cooperation

(ls) The Philippine Coast Guard and the Indian Navy will enhance their cooperation according to an agreement signed during the state visit of Indian President Ram Nath Kovind to the Philippines. The "Memorandum of Understanding on the Sharing of White Shipping Information" aims to facilitate the sharing of information on non-military and non-government shipping vessels. In a recent months, the Philippines have, on several occasions, blamed Chinese fishing vessels of intruding in what Manila considers its territorial waters. [Rappler]

Vietnam: DreamWorks movie banned for displaying Chinese "nine-dash line"

(jk) The Vietnamese government has banned screenings of a DreamWorks animated movie, after finding that the film contains a map showing the controversial U-shaped dotted line, indicating China's claims over the South China Sea. Other affected countries, such as the Philippines or Malaysia have also criticised or ordered to cut the scene from the movie, and after about a week, Malaysia has followed suit and also decided not to screen the movie. The so-called "nine-dash line" is a common feature on Chinese maps and even passports, but other countries reject Beijing's claims which have no basis in contemporary international law. [Reuters]

Singapore and China sign defence agreement to scale up army and navy exercises and to establish regular dialogue

(jk) Singapore is hedging its bets and continues to strive for cooperation with both the US and China. In a recent move, Singapore and China signed a defence agreement increasing bilateral military exercises, mutual logistics support and establish regular dialogues between their defence ministers. The Singaporean Defence Minister signed the agreement in Beijing after it had been agreed to in principle at the Shangri-La dialogue earlier this year. [Channel News Asia 1]

Just prior to the defence minister's trip to the PRC, Singapore's PM designate Heng Swee Keat and other 4th Generation leaders just visited China last week for a series of high-level talks. [Channel News Asia 2]

Indonesia Launches $212M International Development Aid Fund

(jk) Albeit very small in scale, particularly compared to major projects such as the BRI, the Indonesian government has launched the Indonesian Agency for International Development, to "help reduce poverty and social inequality around the world." [Jakarta Globe]

Background Reading

How the PRC pushes its agenda in Myanmar's media

(jk) [Myanmar now] provides an interesting deep dive into some of the People's Republic of China's strategies to push for media outlets in Myanmar to peddle pro-Beijing narratives.

Don’t make us choose: Southeast Asia in the throes of US-China rivalry

(jk) This report from the Brookings Institution describes aspects of the US-China rivalry across a number of major summits and fora from late 2018 to 2019, including major ASEAN  summits, the Second Belt and Road Forum in April 2019 and the Shangri-La Dialogue in May and June. It further looks at the particular experience of Southeast Asia in dealing with this great power rivalry and why it is instructive more broadly. [Brookings]

Maritime terrorism in Asia: An assessment

(ls) A paper published by the Observer Research Foundation evaluates the possibility of an increase in maritime terrorist violence in Asia. Based on an analysis of recent incidents, it argues that the vulnerability of high seas shipping to criminal acts of violence and the weak and inconsistent nature of maritime governance raises the possibility of a terrorist strike in the Asian littorals. [ORF]

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