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November 9, 2020 - Brief Issue 116

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

More Than 50 Million Global Covid-19 Cases Reported Since Start of Pandemic; U.S. Breaks Daily Covid-19 Records 4 Days in a Row; Experts Urge Targeted Mitigation Strategies (Health & Science)

Scott Gottlieb: U.S. Probably Has Half a Million New Coronavirus Cases Per Day (Health & Science)

Report Finds Four-Fold Increase in Covid-19 Cases in Nursing Homes (Health & Science)

Covid-19 Transfer to and from Animals Prompts Concern; Some Fears May be Overblown (Health & Science)

New Data for 21 Countries Show Europe Battling Worst Outbreak Yet, October Worst Month so Far (Around the World)

U.K. Bans Arrivals from Denmark (Around the World)

German Government Condemns Protest in Leipzig (Around the World)

China Ignores Wuhan’s Mistakes in Propaganda (Around the World)

White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows Tests Positive for Coronavirus in Yet Another White House Outbreak; Representatives Gaetz and Waltz Test Positive (U.S. Government & Politics)

President Elect Joe Biden to Announce Covid-19 Task Force, Likely to Face Challenges from Congress (U.S. Government & Politics)

Growing Evidence of PPP Fraud (U.S. Economy)

2.2 Million Women Have Left the Workforce Since January; Childcare Hits Moms Particularly Hard as School Year Begins (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 9,972,333 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 237,574 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 3,881,491 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 156,637,891 tests. Worldwide, there have been 50,407,410 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,256,305 deaths. At least 33,036,690 people have recovered from the virus. 

More Than 50 Million Global Covid-19 Cases Reported Since Start of Pandemic; U.S. Breaks Daily Covid-19 Records 4 Days in a Row; Experts Urge Targeted Mitigation Strategies

Global Covid-19 cases surpassed 50 million on Sunday (Johns Hopkins, Reuters). Cases rose sharply in October, driven largely by Europe and the United States. The seven-day average for new cases globally now stands at 540,000, and more than 1.25 million people have died since the start of the pandemic.

Saturday was the fourth straight day of record-breaking numbers of new Covid-19 cases in the United States, topping 127,000 both Friday and Saturday (Johns Hopkins, WaPo, CNN Health). The total case count reached 10 million on Sunday, with the last million added in just 10 days, according to the New York Times’ tracking (NYT). Tom Frieden, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), both recommend limited, targeted closures in Covid-19 hotspots.

“The sooner we shut, the softer and shorter we can shut,” Frieden said in a Tweet on Friday. Gottlieb agrees, telling reporters that the current lack of targeted mitigation could lead to trouble in December and January. Gottlieb pointed out that hospitalizations are also growing quickly, with 53,000 currently hospitalized and 10,500 in ICUs around the country.

A new CDC study reaffirmed the efficacy of stay-at-home orders and other mitigation methods. The study, which investigated mitigation efforts in Delaware between April and June, found that state-mandated stay-at-home orders and public mask mandates, combined with contact tracing, resulted in an 82% reduction in Covid-19 cases, an 88% reduction in hospitalization, and a 100% reduction in mortality.

Scott Gottlieb: U.S. Probably Has Half a Million New Coronavirus Cases Per Day

Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, said Friday that the U.S. is likely experiencing more than 500,000 new cases of Covid-19 per day, more than four times the official record (CNBC). “Remember 120,000 cases aren’t 120,000 cases. We’re probably, at best, diagnosing 1 in 5 cases right now, maybe a little bit less than that, so this is at least half a million cases a day, probably more in terms of actual numbers of infection,” Gottlieb said. “We’re building up a lot of trouble for the future, and I think this is going to explode in several weeks.”

Dr. Gottlieb noted that mortality rates have been declining since the early days of the pandemic as doctors have gained expertise in treating the virus. However, he expressed concern over rising hospitalization rates and the impact on already-strained health facilities. 

Report Finds Four-Fold Increase in Covid-19 Cases in Nursing Homes

An analysis of data from 20 states shows a troubling trend of rising Covid-19 cases in nursing homes in hard-hit states (AP). The study found that weekly case numbers quadrupled and deaths doubled between May and October. Weekly cases among nursing staff followed a similar trend, prompting concerns that pre-symptomatic staff may be transmitting the virus to residents.

Dr. Tamera Konetzka, one of the University of Chicago researchers who led the study, believes the data calls into question the strategy of protecting the vulnerable while reopening continues around them. “Trying to protect nursing home residents without controlling community spread is a losing battle, Konetzka said. “Someone has to care for vulnerable nursing home residents, and those caregivers move in and out of the nursing home daily, providing an easy pathway from the virus to enter.”

Dr. Konetzka also noted that spread within nursing homes was independent of quality of care, refuting a statement by the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid that said that “the likely causes of nursing home outbreaks are simply nursing homes failing to comply with basic infection control rules.”

The study also found that 1 in 5 nursing homes reported shortages of protective equipment such as masks and gowns, and that 1 in 4 reported a nursing staff shortage. Although nursing home residents comprise just 1% of the population, they account for approximately 40% of Covid-19 deaths.

Covid-19 Transfer to and from Animals Prompts Concern; Some Fears May be Overblown

In Denmark last week, government officials ordered the culling of millions of mink over Covid-19 concerns. Mink, which are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2, had been found to pass a mutated version of the virus back to humans. So far, they are the only species known to do so, apart from the initial unknown transmission event in China.

Public health experts are concerned that any species that becomes infected with the virus could act as a reservoir and pass the virus back to humans at any time, prompting renewed outbreaks (NYT). Conservation experts also worry about the effects of the virus on already-vulnerable animal populations. Primates in particular may be susceptible to the devastating effects of respiratory infections.

Despite these concerns, experts say that some fears stemming from the mutated virus and inter-species transmission are overblown (STAT). The Danish Ministry of Environment and Food expressed concerns that mutations could cause the virus to evade the vaccines currently in development, but other experts aren’t so sure. Dr. Marion Koopmans, head of virology at Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, said that he “would not expect [a single mutation] to have that dramatic an effect.”

Experts have also found little evidence that the mutated strains would be more infectious to humans or cause more severe disease. Denmark has already uploaded 500 genetic sequences of the virus into open databases, and scientists will use the sequences to determine what impact the mutations might have on human disease. The decision by the Danish government to cull mink populations has generally been seen as a prudent cautionary measure. 

Study Finds Children and Adults Have Distinct Antibody Responses to SARS-CoV-2

A study published Thursday in the research journal Nature Immunology found that children and adults exhibit different immune responses to infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19 (NYT). According to the study, children produce fewer types of antibodies and have a weaker antibody response to Covid-19 infection.

The children in the study primarily had antibodies against the S protein of the virus, which resides on the surface of the virus. Adults had these antibodies as well as antibodies against the N protein, a protein that resides within the virus. Dr. Donna Farber, the Columbia University immunologist who led the study, said that a response to N protein would only be seen if the virus were widely spread throughout the body, indicating that children clear the virus much more quickly. Many antibody tests are specific to the N protein, meaning that these tests may not be accurate in children who have cleared the virus.

Previous studies have suggested that an over-active immune response could be partially to blame for more severe Covid-19 disease. The less robust immune response in children may actually indicate that children clear the virus faster, before it has a chance to multiply and cause severe disease. Dr. Farber also notes that quick resolution of the virus may mean children are infectious for a shorter period of time, which could explain why children appear to be at lower risk for spreading the virus than adults.

While the study provides valuable insights, some experts advise caution when interpreting the results. Antibodies were tested at a single point in time, and the presence of antibodies varies during the course of infection and convalescence. The study was also too small to draw conclusions about how immune response varies by age. This study examined a total of 47 children ranging in age from 3 to 18 years of age; some studies have indicated that teenagers may be at similar risk from the virus as adults.

FDA Authorizes First Test That Detects Neutralizing Antibodies Against Covid-19 Infections

On Friday, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the first test to detect neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 (FDA News Release). The FDA has previously authorized more than 50 antibody tests, but these tests only detect the presence of antibodies that bind to pathogens, not necessarily those that fight off infection. Dr. Tim Stenzel, director of the Office of In Vitro Diagnostics and Radiological Health in the FDA’s Center for Devices and Radiological Health, said, “The ability to detect neutralizing antibodies can help us gain additional insight into what the existence of antibodies may mean for patients as we continue the fight against Covid-19.”

Scientists are still working to understand the immune response to SARS-CoV-2, including how long antibodies can be detected in the serum and how the presence of antibodies correlates with immunity. The FDA cautions that a positive antibody test does not mean an individual can stop taking precautions to protect themselves and others, such as social distancing and wearing masks. 

Bonus Read: “An Explanation for Some Covid-19 Deaths May Not Be Holding Up,” (NYT)

Around the World

Europe

New Data for 21 Countries Show Europe Battling Worst Outbreak Yet, October Worst Month so Far

More Europeans are seriously ill with the coronavirus than ever before, according to new data for 21 countries. In the Czech Republic, the most recent hardest-hit country, one in 1,300 people is currently hospitalized with Covid-19 (NYT). In Belgium, France, Italy, and other countries in Western Europe, hospitals are stretched to their limit. “Doctors and nurses could be forced to choose which patients to treat, who would live and who would die,” U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the House of Commons on Monday. “I am afraid the virus is doubling faster than we could ever conceivably add capacity.” The last seven-day average shows the global daily infections are rising by more than 540,000 (Reuters). It took 32 days for the number of cases to rise from 30 million to 40 million, then just 21 days to add another 10 million cases. Europe now accounts for 24% of Covid-19 deaths. 

U.K. Bans Arrivals from Denmark

The British government banned freight drivers who have traveled through Denmark over the past 14 days and aren’t residents of the U.K. from entering England. The restriction is in response to Denmark’s widespread coronavirus outbreak at mink farms. Under the new rules, which came into force at 4 a.m. Sunday, passenger planes and ships traveling from Denmark also won’t be allowed to dock and British nationals or residents returning to the U.K. from Denmark are required to quarantine for two weeks (AP). “Given the significant unknowns regarding the new mutation of COVID-19 originating in Denmark we have moved quickly to protect our citizens and prevent the spread of the virus to the U.K,” the Department for Transport said in a statement Sunday. As noted above, Denmark has ordered the cull of all 15 million minks bred at farms across the country in an effort to eliminate a mutation of the coronavirus that has been found in 12 people who were infected by minks.

German Government Condemns Protest in Leipzig 

On Sunday German officials condemned the actions of 20,000 demonstrators who gathered together in Leipzig to protest the lockdown, most without masks, and called for an investigation into how the protest was able to grow out of control (AP). The eastern German city had tried to move Saturday’s protest to a larger location when 5,000 attendees were predicted, but a court overturned the city’s order at the last minute and the demonstration was able to go ahead as planned. The demonstration ballooned to more than 20,000 people and authorities told the crowd to disperse after it was clear that coronavirus regulations regarding mask wearing and social distancing weren’t being followed. Thousands lingered, disregarding police orders and throwing projectiles and fireworks at reporters and police.

Italian Ski Region in the “Red Zone”

The governor of an autonomous Italian Alpine province known for its ski resorts has declared the province a “red zone,” shutting down all non-essential shops, cafes, restaurants, and forbidding citizens to leave their towns (AP). Bolzano Province Gov. Arno Kompatscher told Sky TG24 TV on Sunday that he ordered the crackdown because ICU beds were rapidly filling up with Covid-19 patients. “We could add 100 ICU beds,” the governor said, but “we can only hold up to a certain point.” He noted that the province needed more doctors and nurses. Italy on Sunday registered some 7,000 fewer new cases compared to the previous day’s increase, but nearly 40,000 fewer swab tests to detect the coronavirus were conducted in the last 24 hours.

Asia

China Ignores Wuhan’s Mistakes in Propaganda 

Wuhan, the city where Covid-19 originated and the first area plagued by an outbreak, is now being lauded in official Chinese propaganda as a symbol of the country’s resilience (NYT). Television tributes to the city have been playing across the country and the national Ministry of Culture and Tourism sponsored a new opera about the doctors who fought the outbreak, all in an effort to paint Wuhan, and China, as a global symbol of superior governance. It also seems to be an effort to paint over any lingering public anger over the government’s mishandling of the crisis in the early weeks of the pandemic. Wuhan and China as a whole are seeing almost zero new coronavirus cases now. 

U.S. Government & Politics

Bonus Read: “‘This F---ing Virus’: Inside Donald Trump’s 2020 Undoing,” (Politico). 

White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows Tests Positive for Coronavirus in Yet Another White House Outbreak; Representatives Gaetz and Waltz Test Positive 

White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows tested positive for coronavirus on Wednesday, and initially sought to prevent news of the diagnosis from becoming public, although the news broke on Friday (Politico, WSJ, WaPo). Meadows had appeared with other Trump advisers while not wearing a mask on election day. Cassidy Hutchinson, a top aide to Meadows, has also tested positive as has Nick Trainer, the Trump campaign’s director of battleground strategy. Politico notes, “Meadows is among numerous Trump aides who tested positive in recent days, representing the third high-profile outbreak at the White House in the past six weeks — after one that hit the president’s top aides and Trump himself into early October and another that infected top aides to Vice President Mike Pence late last month.” 

Meanwhile two Republican Congressmen from Florida ,Representative Matt Gaetz and Representative Michael Waltz, have announced that they have tested positive for coronavirus (Politico). Gaetz tested positive for antibodies on election day, suggesting he had already had the virus. He told Politico, “I have tested positive for antibodies,” adding, “I have no live virus.” It is not clear when he contracted the virus, but he currently has no symptoms. Gaetz appeared at numerous Trump rallies over the campaign. On Friday, Waltz confirmed he had tested positive for a current infection. In a statement, he said, “I’ve purposefully tested every week, have now isolated, and reached out to people for notifications,” adding, “We are fortunate all of my staff or family are fine. I encourage everyone to take appropriate precautions, particularly those in higher risk categories. I will absolutely continue to serve my district and am so very honored with the trust Floridians placed in me Nov 3rd.” Waltz and Gaetz are the third and fourth representatives from Florida to test positive since the pandemic began.

President Elect Joe Biden to Announce Covid-19 Task Force, Likely to Face Challenges from Congress

President Elect Joe Biden plans to announce a Covid-19 task force and the outlines of a plan to respond to the pandemic today, but his plans will face multiple challenges (WaPo, NYT). During his victory speech on Saturday, Biden said he would announce the task force on Monday. Biden stated, “Our work begins with getting Covid under control.” According to the New York Times, “Mr. Biden is expected to name three co-chairs of the 12-member panel: Vivek Murthy, a former surgeon general, who has been a key Biden adviser for months and is expected to take a major public role; David Kessler, a former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration; and Dr. Marcella Nunez-Smith, a Yale University professor.” The task force will launch a week-long focus on the virus on the part of the Biden team, which comes as the Trump administration has largely shuttered the White House Coronavirus Task Force. Biden has previously said he would appoint a “national supply chain commander” and a pandemic testing board. Biden is also expected to make more aggressive use of the Defense Production Act. However, the possibility of a Senate still controlled by Republicans may challenge some of Biden’s efforts. Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the Center for Infection and Immunity at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health told the Washington Post, “It’s going to be very challenging for Biden to implement some of the ambitious pandemic preparedness and response plans he has.” In addition, the virus is expected to continue to surge over the next months, leading up to the inauguration.

U.S. Economy

Bonus Read: “Rebounding Corporate Profits Fortify Stock Market Rally,” (WSJ). 

Growing Evidence of PPP Fraud

There is growing evidence of fraud with regard to the Paycheck Protection Program implemented to help support businesses and their workforces amid the pandemic, according to a report Sunday in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The Journal writes that while the program distributed about $525 billion to more than five million companies (disclosure: New America received funds as part of the program),“evidence is growing that many others took advantage of the program’s open-door design. Banks and the government allowed companies to self-certify that they needed the funds, with little vetting. The Small Business Administration’s inspector general, an arm of the agency that administers the PPP, said last month there were ‘strong indicators of widespread potential abuse and fraud in the PPP.’” According to the Small Business Administration, tens of thousands of companies received funds despite being ineligible. Conditions that would produce ineligibility include, as the Journal writes, “corporations created after the pandemic began, businesses that exceeded workforce size limits (generally 500 employees or fewer) or those listed in a federal ‘Do Not Pay’ database because they already owe money to taxpayers.” The Treasury Department provides another sign of potential fraud. The Journal writes, “The Treasury Department in September received 2,495 suspicious-activity reports involving business loans from banks and other depository institutions, more than the total for any year dating back to 2014, according to public data. One type of suspicious activity banks reported were multiple government payments from coronavirus-relief programs to a single account, suggesting potential abuse, according to Kenneth Blanco, director of the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network.”

Bonus Read: “Smaller Is Big in New E-Commerce Warehouses,” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

Bonus Read: “Companies Offer Creative Solutions to Worker Burnout During the Pandemic,” (WSJ). 

2.2 Million Women Have Left the Workforce Since January; Childcare Hits Moms Particularly Hard as School Year Begins

On Friday, the Labor Department released its October job report, showing that 2.2 million women have left the workforce since October, even with signs that some jobs may be coming back (WaPo). In comparison, 1.5 million fewer men are in the workforce compared with January. The Washington Post writes, “Put another way, women have recovered only about 39 percent of the big drop in the labor force they suffered in the spring, while men have recovered 58 percent of their jobs” and notes that one of the major drivers of the disparity is the difficulty of child care during the pandemic which has fallen disproportionately on women. Allen, a 32-year-old single mother told the Post, “I’m stuck in a bad spot,” adding, “I would pay more for a babysitter than what I would make going back to work.” Initially, women lost more jobs than men because the industries hardest hit were predominantly staffed by women, the Summer saw recoveries in jobs for both men and women as parts of the economy reopened, but the Post notes, “that changed in September. Just as the school year began, 865,000 women dropped out of the labor force, compared with 216,000 men. In October, men gained back all their modest September losses, while only about half of women returned.” In addition, while women did see job gains in October following the September decline, many fear that those gains - largely centered in retail and hospitality industries - may disappear with coronavirus once again surging, raising the prospect of further shutdowns.

Analysis & Arguments

Stephen Vladeck argues the election did not have to be so chaotic despite the pandemic (NYT).

Amanda Petrusich interviews Willie Nelson on his thoughts on the pandemic and its impact among other things (New Yorker).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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