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January 20, 2021 - Brief Issue 139

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

U.S. Surpasses 400,000 Covid-19 Deaths (Health & Science)

Biden to Prioritize Vaccine Distribution, School Opening During First 100 Days in Office (Health & Science)

B117 Coronavirus Variant Could Become Dominant U.S. Strain by March (Health & Science)

New Coronavirus Variant Detected in Bavaria (Health & Science)

Europe’s Optimism for Spring Fades, Replaced with More Restrictions and Extended Lockdowns (Around the World)

EU Wants to Send Surplus Vaccines to Poorer States and Africa (Around the World)

Hospitals in Japan Close to Collapse (Around the World)

Hong Kong Experiencing Fourth Wave (Around the World)

India Donates Vaccine Doses to Neighbors (Around the World)

Biden Rejects Trump Plan to Lift Travel Ban for Europe, Brazil (U.S. Government & Politics)

New CDC Director Pledges to Restore Trust and Speed Vaccine Distribution (U.S. Government & Politics)

Biden Selects Assistant Health Secretary, First Openly Transgender Person to Face Senate Confirmation (U.S. Government & Politics)

U.S. Corporate Bond Rally Continues (U.S. Economy)

Post-ABC Survey: Americans Say Pandemic is Out of Control (U.S. Society)

Pandemic Driven Teacher Shortages May Disrupt Efforts to Return to In-Person Schooling (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 24,254,284 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 401,777 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 282,867,081 tests and distributed 31,161,075 vaccine doses, with 13,595,803 people initiating vaccination (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 96,255,312 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,059,566 deaths. At least 53,160,043 people have recovered from the virus.

U.S. Surpasses 400,000 Covid-19 Deaths

On Tuesday, almost exactly a year after its first confirmed case of the virus, the United States passed 400,000 Covid-19 deaths (Johns Hopkins, WSJ, NBC). The first U.S. case was reported on January 21, 2020. Since then, more than 24 million U.S. cases and more than 95 million global cases have been confirmed. The death toll in the U.S. is much higher than anticipated at the onset of the pandemic, with inadequate control measures contributing to the rapid spread of the virus and the rate of fatalities increasing over the winter months. Now, health officials are focused on vaccinating as many people as possible as the virus continues to spread in all regions of the country. New cases and hospitalizations declined over the weekend, with the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday possibly contributing to a decrease in testing.

Biden to Prioritize Vaccine Distribution, School Opening During First 100 Days in Office

Although the Covid-19 vaccine distribution has so far been slower than anticipated, the Biden administration has pledged to administer 100 million vaccines during Biden’s first 100 days in office. As of Tuesday, approximately 12.2 million vaccines had been administered in the U.S. over the course of just over a month. Whereas the Trump administration left allocation up to the states, President-elect Biden plans to implement a more centralized national strategy that would provide federal mass vaccination sites staffed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the National Guard. The administration also plans to partner with existing health centers that serve low-income communities (NBC, STAT).

President-elect Biden also plans to reopen most K-8 classrooms during his first 100 days (Politico). He plans to expand testing and school mitigation strategies and communicate clear reopening guidelines across the nation. Even so, the administration faces resistance from teachers who are reluctant to return to work over safety concerns as well as state and local officials who may be opposed to mandating public health measures.

The vaccine program and school reopening depend on securing funding from Congress. Mr. Biden plans to propose a $1.9 trillion Covid-19 funding package, including $170 billion for education and $20 billion to implement a national vaccination program. 

B117 Coronavirus Variant Could Become Dominant U.S. Strain by March

Experts say that the new B117 Coronavirus variant, first identified in the U.K. in mid-December, could soon become the dominant strain in the States. The strain is not more deadly, but it is much more contagious – a fact that makes experts worry about another surge in cases. Although case numbers have been trending downward after peaking last week, the seven-day average for new cases is still above 200,000 cases per day, and many hospitals across the U.S. are struggling to keep up with the caseload (CNN Health).

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) believe the B117 variant, so far positively identified in 20 states, is still circulating the country at low levels. However, officials say it is likely more widespread than the current, limited data suggest. A new analysis by the CDC suggests that, unless the rate of vaccination improves substantially and people adhere to more stringent prevention measures, the new variant will spread rapidly and could become the dominant strain by March (STAT). 

New Coronavirus Variant Detected in Bavaria

According to German health officials, a new coronavirus variant was detected in 35 patients in the Garmisch-Partenkirchen clinic in the southern state of Bavaria (DW). As yet, little is known about the variant, including whether or not it causes more severe illness or is more infectious. The mutation is different from the one found in the U.K. and from the South African coronavirus strain, which are more contagious than the original strain. Deputy Medical Director Clemens Stockklausner said that it is unknown at this time whether the mutation “has any clinical relevance.” Samples of the viral variant have been sent to the Charite Hospital in Berlin for further study. Bonus Read: “What We Now Know – And Don’t Know – About the Coronavirus Variants,” (STAT).

Biotech Firm to Begin Testing Vaccine Targeted at Variant Coronavirus Strains

Gritstone Oncology, a small U.S. biotechnology company, is set to begin human trials on a Covid-19 vaccine that it hopes could target any coronavirus strains that emerge as resistant to current vaccines (STAT). Although several coronavirus variants have emerged, there is no evidence that they would be resistant to the vaccines that have already been authorized or will soon seek authorization around the world. However, CEO Andrew Allen says he believes “it’s prudent to have it developed as a backstop.”

Allen cited the emergence of the South Africa strain as an important factor in the company’s decision to pursue testing of their experimental vaccine. In lab experiments, a mutation found in the South Africa variant was able to help the virus escape protective antibodies generated after infection with the original strain. So far, no experiments have been conducted exploring the effect of vaccine-generated antibodies on the mutant strain. Another strategy for targeting new variants may be to produce new versions of existing vaccines, reducing the need for additional testing and allowing manufacturers to use existing infrastructure for vaccine production.

Norwegian Health Authorities Warn Against Vaccinating Terminally Ill Patients

After several deaths in Norway in medically frail individuals following inoculation with the Pfizer/BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine, the Norwegian health agency warned against vaccinating terminally ill patients (WSJ, Reuters). Twenty-three deaths have been reported in elderly individuals in the days following their vaccination. Out of the 13 cases that have so far been investigated, six patients were previously diagnosed as terminally ill. Eleven suffered from dementia and at least one serious comorbidity, and the average age was 86.

Dr. Stephan Evans, a pharmacoepidemiology expert at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said that “the observed numbers of deaths is not notably above the numbers expected” and that so far, no causal link has been established between vaccines and the deaths of medically frail people. However, the Norwegian Medicines Agency issued a statement Friday warning that “common adverse reactions may have contributed to a severe course in elderly people who are frail.”

Crowded ICUs Linked to Greater Risk of Death from Covid-19

A study published in the medical journal JAMA Network Open suggests that crowded conditions in intensive care units could lead to significant jumps in deaths from Covid-19 (CIDRAP). The study examined 8,516 patients admitted to ICUs at the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) hospitals between March 1 and August 31, 2020. The researchers found that Covid-19 patients being treated in ICUs were nearly twice as likely to die during periods of high ICU demand (defined as more than 75% of peak Covid-19 caseload).

The authors of the study advised that hospitals closely track Covid-19 ICU demand and consider additional interventions, such as moving patients to less-stressed hospitals, during periods of high strain. The authors also acknowledged the difficulty of pinpointing the root cause of the issue and suggested that further studies investigate potential factors leading to increases in mortality. For instance, stressed units could be unable to provide the best quality of care, or it may be that only the most severely ill patients are admitted to intensive care units during periods of high occupancy.

California Health Officials Pause Vaccinations from One Lot of Moderna Covid-19 Vaccine

California health officials are asking medical providers to suspend vaccinations from one lot of Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine after reports of severe allergic reactions (CNN). More than 330,000 doses were distributed to 287 providers across the state, and tens of thousands of shots have likely already been given. According to officials, fewer than 10 people at a San Diego clinic experienced reactions requiring medical attention. No other vaccination sites reported any incidents. Nonetheless, California’s health department has recommended suspending vaccination from the lot “out of an extreme abundance of caution” and is working with Moderna to investigate the adverse events.

The decision to suspend vaccinations comes with its own risks, however. Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and a member of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s vaccine advisory committee, said the decision puts people at risk of not getting a potentially life-saving vaccine. Offit also said that, thanks to tight FDA regulations, bad vaccine lots have historically not been an issue. California health officials hope to have an update on the situation later this week.

WHO Report Outlines Global Failures to Contain Pandemic

An interim report by a World Health Organization (WHO) panel details what the panel considered to be a year’s worth of pandemic control failures (NYT). In the report, the Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response lists failures of governments to secure protective equipment or conduct sufficient contact tracing, disjointed national responses and slow alert systems. The panel even criticized the WHO itself, saying that the organization declared an international health emergency far too late and enacted reforms too slowly. Even after the WHO issued guidance, governments and health officials often failed to implement basic public health measures. Although many governments acted on economic interests rather than public health interests, the report noted that countries that quickly enacted stringent public health strategies also had better economic outcomes. Also impacting pandemic recovery is the fact that wealthy countries are slated to receive vaccines well ahead of middle- and low-income countries, with wealthy countries aiming to finish vaccinating most of their populations by the end of the year and poorer countries likely to take years to do the same.

WHO Director Condemns Inequities in Vaccine Distribution

On Monday, World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus began the WHO’s week-long executive board conference by calling out the unequal distribution of Covid-19 vaccines around the world (Politico). Dr. Tedros noted that, while wealthy countries have received millions of doses of vaccines, many poorer countries have received almost no doses.

“The world is on the brink of a catastrophic moral failure,” Dr. Tedros said. “It’s not right that younger, healthier adults in rich countries are vaccinated before health workers and older people in poorer countries.” As he has done before, Tedros sharply criticized vaccine producers for securing bilateral deals with wealthy nations, driving up costs and taking doses away from COVAX, the WHO-backed program that aims to distribute vaccines equitably around the world. COVAX has so far obtained 2 billion vaccine doses and intends to begin distribution in February. Vaccine developers have primarily sought regulatory approval in wealthier nations and have not prioritized WHO approval.

Dr. Clement Martin Auer, a board member from Austria, returned criticism, saying that COVAX was slow and ineffective. Dr. Auer pointed out that the European Union, despite making deals with manufacturers to secure vaccines for its wealthy member nations, was “the single largest donor” to COVAX.

Bonus Reads: “The Next President Actually Has a Covid Plan,” (NYT); “Covid-19 Vaccine Guidance for Those who are Lactating is Based on Faulty Assumptions, Experts Say,” (STAT).

Around the World

Europe 

Europe’s Optimism for Spring Fades, Replaced with More Restrictions and Extended Lockdowns

Much of Europe is struggling with high Covid-19 infections and deaths, and vaccination campaigns have gotten off to a slower-than-expected start, causing many across the continent to lose hope for the end of lockdowns and virus-related restrictions in the spring. The stubbornly high infection rates combined with the more contagious variants of the virus is causing alarm among government and health officials. Between 3,000-4,000 people have died from the disease every day across the European Union in recent weeks and governments are now extending or even tightening restrictions to try to get a handle on the spread of the virus. “We will be very challenged at least for the next 10 weeks, and this will be the hardest phase of the pandemic,” Rudolf Anschober, Austria’s health minister, said Sunday as he announced a toughening of his country’s lockdown (WSJ). In Slovakia, residents can only commute to work with a negative coronavirus test. France has imposed a curfew of 6 p.m. across the country. 

On Tuesday, the UK reported the highest number of deaths in a single day since the pandemic began, with 1,610 people reported dead (Guardian). The rise in deaths comes as Britain’s Office for National Statistics released the results of a survey that estimates that one in eight people in England had antibodies against the virus in December, suggesting they were infected in the past. Excess deaths were at the highest level since last May, the analysis also found. 

Also on Tuesday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that she and the state premiers agreed to extend the lockdown for most shops and schools until Feb. 14 (Reuters). Medical masks are also now mandated in stores and for all passengers on public transport across Germany.

Ireland reported 93 Covid-19 fatalities on Tuesday, the highest number of daily deaths since the pandemic began (Guardian). The high death rate follows a sharp increase in infections over the first 10 days of the year as public health measures were relaxed over the holiday season. Ireland’s health service is being challenged as the number of patients in need of intensive care rose sharply since the end of December.

In Italy, residents are barred from travel from their home region for at least another month and the government faced a confidence vote triggered by objections to the Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s plan to spend $243 billion for post-pandemic economic recovery (WSJ). Even though the prime minister “squeaked through” the vote Tuesday, it could signal future problems for Conte’s government in passing legislation (AP). 

EU Wants to Send Surplus Vaccines to Poorer States and Africa

The European Union is looking to set up a mechanism to allow surplus Covid-19 vaccines to be shared with poorer neighboring states and Africa, Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides told EU lawmakers on Tuesday (Reuters). The move could undercut an initiative led by the World Health Organization called COVAX, but she stressed the EU approach would get the vaccines to other countries “before COVAX is fully operational.” COVAX was established last summer to ensure a fair distribution of vaccines across the world but so far has struggled to secure doses because it currently lacks the funds to pay for vaccinations in advance. “Firms will not give you doses if you don’t pay in advance,” a senior EU vaccine negotiator told Reuters on condition of anonymity, noting that the EU initiative was the result of COVAX having fallen short of expectations. According to Reuters, “Kyriakides said the EU vaccine-sharing scheme should prioritise health workers and most vulnerable people in the Western Balkans, North Africa, Middle East and poorer sub-Saharan African countries.”

Asia 

Hospitals in Japan Close to Collapse

Some hospitals in hard-hit regions of Japan are on the brink of collapse, medical experts warned, as the third wave of coronavirus infections spreads throughout the country. Japan reported more than 4,900 coronavirus infections on Monday and infections have doubled over the past six weeks to about 338,000, according to the public broadcaster NHK. The more contagious strain of the coronavirus, first discovered in Britain, was also detected in community transmission and has prompted Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga to move to protect overstretched medical services. “What is important is to provide necessary services to people in need. We will exhaust all measures to safeguard the medical system,” Suga said in a speech this week, adding that the government was ready to deploy military medical teams to regions struggling to cope with an influx of Covid patients (Guardian). Suga had already declared a state of emergency in the greater Tokyo region on Jan. 7 that was quickly expanded to cover half the country’s population, but members of his own government and health officials have warned that the measures won’t be enough. President of the Japan Medical Association, Toshio Nakagawa, said: “There aren’t enough doctors or nurses,” he said. “Even if hospitals are told to increase the number of beds, what can’t be done, can’t be done. If the number of infection cases keeps rising, the healthcare system could be wiped out.”

Hong Kong Experiencing Fourth Wave

New coronavirus infections are back in the triple digits for the first time this year in Hong Kong this week as health authorities said on Tuesday that current social distancing measures would be extended for at least another week (NYT, SCMP). Dine-in service at restaurants will continue to be suspended and authorities said they will bar entry to travelers who had spent more than two hours in Ireland or Brazil in the past 21 days, the same rule that was already in effect for travelers from Britain and South Africa, due to the more transmissible variants of the virus that were detected in those countries. Hong Kong officials confirmed 107 cases citywide on Tuesday, just as an advisory panel recommended the approval of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for emergency use. 

India Donates Vaccine Doses to Neighbors

India said on Wednesday that it was starting to supply a locally manufactured version of the AstraZeneca vaccine to its neighboring countries as the government continues its campaign to vaccinate the hundreds of millions Indian residents (NYT). Donated doses were delivered to Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, and the Seychelles starting today, the Foreign Ministry said. The vaccine, which is known as Covishield in India, was developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University and is manufactured domestically by Serum Institute of India. 

Taiwan Cancels Lantern Festival

On Tuesday Taiwan cancelled a major festival during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday as the island reported the biggest daily rise in local infections in nearly 11 months (Reuters). Taiwan has kept the pandemic under control due to early and effective prevention methods but has been unsettled by new domestic transmissions, first in December and now with an outbreak in a hospital in the northern city of Taoyuan. The Taiwan Lantern Festival is an annual celebration to mark the end of the Lunar New Year in mid-February and usually draws hundreds of thousands of visitors every year, but authorities cited “pandemic-prevention” as the top priority when announcing the decision to cancel the event.

U.S. Government & Politics

Biden Rejects Trump Plan to Lift Travel Ban for Europe, Brazil

On Monday, a spokesperson for President-elect Joe Biden announced that the Biden team was opposed to the Trump administration’s move to lift coronavirus related travel bans for travelers from Europe and Brazil (Politico). Politico writes, “Trump had announced he was rescinding the entry bans effective January 26 — six days after Biden takes office — because of new testing requirements for international flights set to kick in that day.” Biden transition spokesperson Jen Psaki tweeted in response to that plan, “With the pandemic worsening, and more contagious variants emerging around the world, this is not the time to be lifting restrictions on international travel,” adding in a second tweet, “On the advice of our medical team, the Administration does not intend to lift these restrictions on 1/26. In fact, we plan to strengthen public health measures around international travel in order to further mitigate the spread of COVID-19.”

New CDC Director Pledges to Restore Trust and Speed Vaccine Distribution

Rochelle Walensky, set to become the new director of the CDC, told the Wall Street Journal on Monday that she will focus in large part on restoring trust in vaccines and speed their distribution (WSJ). Walensky, who will begin work on Wednesday replacing Robert Redfield as CDC Director, told the Journal, “This is an emergency.” She commented on the need to build trust, stating, “Right now is the time to do that outreach, to do that education, to understand why it is they may not want it and what it is that they need to understand in order to want it” and also discussed efforts to develop mobile vaccine distribution systems as part of the effort to speed up distribution.

Biden Selects Assistant Health Secretary, First Openly Transgender Person to Face Senate Confirmation

On Tuesday, President-elect Joe Biden announced that he was nominating Rachel Levine, Pennsylvania’s current health secretary, to serve as assistant secretary for health in the Department of Health and Human Services (Politico). Levine would be the first openly transgender person to serve in the role as well as the first openly transgender person to go through a Senate confirmation process. Politico writes, “A Harvard and Tulane-educated pediatrician, Levine emerged as the public face of her state's pandemic response while also serving as president of the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials. She was appointed to her current post by Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf in 2017 and has written on the opioid crisis, medical marijuana, adolescent medicine, eating disorders and LGBTQ medicine.” Biden stated, “Dr. Rachel Levine will bring the steady leadership and essential expertise we need to get people through this pandemic — no matter their zip code, race, religion, sexual orientation, gender identity, or disability — and meet the public health needs of our country in this critical moment and beyond.”

Bonus Read: “They Prepare the White House for a New President. They Have 5 Hours,” (NYT). 

U.S. Economy

U.S. Corporate Bond Rally Continues

Despite the pandemic, the current rally in the market for U.S. corporate bonds has continued into 2021 (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “Hopes for an economic rebound and a slowdown in borrowing have powered U.S. corporate bonds to a strong start in 2021. As of Thursday, the average extra yield, or spread, investors demanded to hold investment-grade corporate bonds over U.S. Treasurys was 0.93 percentage points, according to Bloomberg Barclays data. That was down from 1.05 percentage points one month ago and the narrowest gap since January 2020.” The Journal further notes, “The move reflects investors’ growing confidence that highly rated U.S. companies will endure the pandemic, boosted by vaccine rollouts, economic stimulus and easy money from the Federal Reserve. Spreads had widened sharply during 2020’s early year market turmoil, when many investors feared the pandemic would spark a wave of defaults and bankruptcies, fueling losses in corporate debt.”

U.S. Society

Post-ABC Survey: Americans Say Pandemic is Out of Control

According to a nationwide survey by the Washington Post and ABC, most Americans believe the pandemic is out of control (WaPo). The Post writes, “large majorities of people of all political affiliations say they think the deadly virus, which arrived in the country nearly a year ago, is only somewhat under control or not at all controlled.” Despite the large majorities, partisan splits are present. The Post reports, “About 1 in 5 Republicans say they think the pandemic is at least mostly under control, with fewer than 1 in 20 regarding it as completely controlled, the survey finds. Democrats are more than twice as likely as those identifying with the GOP to say they perceive the virus as not at all under control.” The poll also found that a majority of Americans are interested in getting vaccinated.

Pandemic Driven Teacher Shortages May Disrupt Efforts to Return to In-Person Schooling

As thousands of teachers are forced to stay home and quarantine as a result of the pandemic, teacher shortages are disrupting efforts to return to in-person schooling across the country, the New York Times reports (NYT). The Times described the efforts in Nevada’s Washoe county to address the issue, writing, “administrators in the Washoe County School District, which serves 62,000 students in western Nevada, pulled out all the stops to try to continue in-person instruction for students. They exhausted the district’s regular supply of substitute instructors. They asked teachers to use their planning periods to cover classes for quarantining colleagues. Some schools tapped principals, librarians, guidance counselors and other staff members to teach classes or monitor lunch and recess. The superintendent even filled in for an absent teacher.” Joe Ernst, a superintendent overseeing two dozen schools in the county, told the Times, “We had to embrace an all-hands-on-deck mind-set to keep schools open.” Even so, in November, the district had to halt in-person schooling because it could not cover the 2,000-odd substitution requests. The Times notes that Washoe County is not an exception, writing, “Washoe County’s struggles typify the battle that many schools are waging to continue in-person instruction. Across the country, state education and district officials say the pandemic has intensified a longstanding teacher shortage to crisis levels.”

Aldi Supermarket Chain Will Pay U.S. Workers to Get Vaccinated

The German-owned Aldi supermarket chain announced on Tuesday that it would provide up to four hours of pay for its U.S. workers to get vaccinated (Reuters). Reuters reports, “The retailer, which has more than 2,000 stores in 37 U.S. states, said it would cover costs associated with vaccine administration and implement on-site vaccination clinics at its warehouse and office locations.” The announcement follows Dollar General Corp’s decision to pay workers $25 if they took time off to get vaccinated. Even so, Reuters notes, “Most corporations globally have so far been quiet on whether they would try securing doses for employees, even as some Indian firms are considering buying COVID-19 shots outright for their employees, once the vaccines become available commercially.”

Bonus Read: “Covid-19 Destroyed a Young Man’s Lungs. Can His Foster Mom Let Him Go?,” (WaPo).

Analysis & Arguments

Veena Dubal and Juliet B. Schor write that the Biden administration should restore labor protections for gig workers particularly amid the pandemic’s impact upon them (NYT).

Ezra Klein writes on the maddening fact that many obvious pandemic response measures in Biden’s plan were left undone by the Trump administration (NYT).

Alexis Madrigal writes on the state of the United States’ data on the pandemic (Atlantic).

Mitchell Abidor reviews a documentary showing links between Covid denials and international right wing movements (Dissent).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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