Ahead of the government’s delayed January jobs report, now planned for next week, a mix of other federal and private data points to a rough start to the new year. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Mexico all kept interest rates unchanged yesterday, and the Reserve Bank of India followed suit today—but diverse outlooks for inflation are likely to send policymakers in different directions this year.

The U.S. job market is off to a rough start in the new year, with companies announcing more layoff plans after freezing out job seekers, cutting back on hiring, and rattling markets. More reports out Thursday, from both government and private data sources, point to sluggish job growth, employers’ reluctance to hire, and rising willingness to slash payrolls. They are filling in a picture of a labor market that slowed considerably in 2025 as economists wait for the government’s official January report, due next week.

• U.S. Economy Shed Nearly 1 Million Job Openings Last Year
• U.S. Jobless Claims Rose Last Week

• Top European Central Bankers Congratulate Warsh on Fed Nomination

The Bank of Mexico left its benchmark interest rate unchanged Thursday, pausing after 12 consecutive cuts to assess the inflationary impact of recent tax and tariff increases. The five-member board of governors voted unanimously to leave the overnight interest-rate target at 7.0% in their first monetary policy meeting of the year. The pause was widely expected.

The Canadian economy is undergoing a profound structural shift, Macklem said. The central bank can help support the transition but it's ultimately the response from policymakers, business executives and households that will determine Canada's future prosperity, said the central banker.

The Bank of Japan could consider another interest-rate hike in the not-so-distant future as inflation approaches the 2% target, policy board member Kazuyuki Masu said Friday. "Japan has clearly entered an inflationary phase," Masu said in a speech to business leaders in Ehime prefecture, located on one of Japan's four main islands. "What is vital from now on is to ensure that, through timely and appropriate policy interest-rate hikes, the underlying inflation rate remains below 2%," he said. (Dow Jones Newswires)

The Japanese prime minister's push for a food-tax holiday could pay off big, but that reward carries significant fiscal risk. Sanae Takaichi's proposed pause on Japan's 8% tax on food and beverages offers welcome relief to inflation-weary consumers. But it has caused anxiety in financial markets that worry the measure will worsen public finances. Skeptics warn that the tax cut could undermine the sustainability of the country's massive debts and shock household consumption when the suspension expires in two years. According to Ministry of Finance estimates, suspending the 8% levy would create an annual revenue shortfall of about 5 trillion yen, equivalent to roughly $32 billion. (Dow Jones Newswires)

The biggest credit-card issuers collected about $146 billion in revenue last year from America’s reliance on debt. The combined results from JPMorgan Chase, American Express, Capital One and Citigroup represent the money machine that could be at risk if the Trump administration continues to push for a federal cap on credit-card interest rates. Credit-card revenue—which includes interest and other fees from consumers and swipe fees collected from merchants—was up 7% in 2025 from a year earlier.

7 a.m.: Bank of England Market Participants Survey results
7:15 a.m.: Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at Monetary Policy Report National Agency Briefing
8:30 a.m.: Canada Labour Force Survey
10 a.m.: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary
3 p.m.: U.S. Consumer Credit
6 p.m.: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks at Brookings Institution event

Time N/A: Reserve Bank of India interest-rate decision
10 a.m.: U.S. Employment Trends Index

• Bitcoin dropped Thursday, with the world's largest cryptocurrency falling roughly 8% to trade slightly above $67,000. Declines in crypto prices have coincided with broader market jitters. Bitcoin has handed back all of the gains made since President Trump won the election in November 2024.
• Modern cars are packed with internet-connected widgets, many of them containing Chinese technology. Now, the car industry is scrambling to root out that tech ahead of a looming deadline, a test case for America’s ability to decouple from Chinese supply chains.
• Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia cut the price of its crude for Asian buyers for the fourth consecutive month, signaling further caution as concerns that global supply will outstrip demand continue to weigh on global markets.
• Global food prices fell for a fifth consecutive month as declines in dairy, meat and sugar outweighed gains in cereals and vegetable oils, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said.
• Germany’s industrial output fell more sharply than expected in December, ending three straight months of growth, a reflection of the fragility of the sector’s expected rebound.

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by Michael Maloney in New York and Nihad Ahmed in Barcelona.