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December 14, 2020 - Brief Issue 131

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

FDA Approves Pfizer and BioNTech Covid-19 Vaccine; Shipments Underway (Health & Science)

Health Officials Must Address Vaccine Hesitancy; German Study Shows People Prefer Covid-19 Messaging That Notes Scientific Limits (Health & Science)

State Leaders Still Lack Necessary Funding to Reach Vaccination Goals (Health & Science)

Experts Weigh Allergy Risks of Covid-19 Vaccine (Health & Science)

FDA Leaves Covid-19 Vaccine Open to Pregnant Individuals (Health & Science)

Germany Begins Another Hard Lockdown Before Christmas (Around the World)

Sweden’s Health System Exhausted by Second Wave (Around the World)

Italy to Use Primrose-Shaped Gazebos for Vaccination Campaign, Surpasses Britain for Highest Number of Deaths in Europe (Around the World)

Cases in the Netherlands Jump, Government to Decide on Stricter Measures Today (Around the World)

Japan Sets New Daily Record for Covid Cases (Around the World)

South Korea’s President Warns of More Restrictions (Around the World)

Trump Says He Will Delay Plan to Vaccinate White House Staff Members (U.S. Government & Politics)

Biden Team Prepares Vaccine Messaging as Vaccines Rollout Begins (U.S. Government & Politics)

Eviction Wave Approaches as Federal Ban Set to Expire (U.S. Economy)

Charley Pride, the First Black Major Country Music Star, Dies of Covid-19 (U.S. Society)

Pandemic Drives Growth in Hunting and Fishing (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 16,256,754 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 299,177 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 6,298,082 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 217,114,386 tests. Worldwide, there have been 72,270,693 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,613,260 deaths. At least 47,282,941 people have recovered from the virus.

FDA Approves Pfizer and BioNTech Covid-19 Vaccine; Shipments Underway

After a panel of experts voted to approve the Pfizer and BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) officially granted an emergency use authorization for the vaccine on Friday (WaPo, Politico). The vaccine is now approved for emergency use in all individuals 16 years of age and older, though the FDA said that the vaccine should not be given to those with a history of severe allergic reactions to ingredients found in the vaccine. A panel of experts advising the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) offered their endorsement of the vaccine. CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield signed off on the decision, signaling to medical professionals that immunizations should proceed (NYT, CNBC). In the coming weeks, the CDC is expected to issue further guidance about inoculating 16- and 17-year-olds, pregnant and lactating people, and those with a history of allergic reactions to vaccines.

On Sunday morning, trucks carrying more than 500,000 doses of the vaccines left the Pfizer plant in Kalamazoo, Michigan to begin distribution to all 50 states (WSJ, WaPo, Politico). The shipments will arrive at 145 facilities on Monday and nearly 500 more sites on Tuesday and Wednesday. Dr. Stephen Hahn, head of the FDA, said that he hoped the first vaccinations would begin on Monday. Immunizations are expected to begin in all states this week for high-risk healthcare workers and residents of long-term care facilities. Approximately 2.9 million doses will go out in the initial shipments, with another 2.9 million to be provided when second doses are given three weeks later and an additional 500,000 held in reserve as supply chains fine-tune their distribution.

The positive vaccine news comes as U.S. cases continue to surge, with a new daily case record of more than 230,000 reported on Friday and record hospitalizations of more than 109,000 reported on Sunday (Johns Hopkins, COVID Tracking Project). Bonus Read: “The Mass Distribution of Covid-19 Is Underway. ‘Everything Has to Come Together.” (WSJ).

Health Officials Must Address Vaccine Hesitancy; German Study Shows People Prefer Covid-19 Messaging That Notes Scientific Limits

As the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine makes its way to facilities around the United States, one remaining hurdle for health officials is to address public hesitancy (WSJ, Forbes). According to a Gallup poll conducted in late November, 63% of Americans say they are willing to be immunized against Covid-19. Although the number is up from a low of 50% in September, officials estimate that at least 80% of the population needs to be immune to Covid-19 to bring an end to the pandemic.

Common reasons for vaccine hesitancy include concern about the quick development and approval of the vaccine, mistrust of drug companies and government agencies, and fears that political pressure may have influenced vaccine approval. U.S. Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn said on Sunday, “We need to address their fears and concerns, and we need to roll this out in a way that provides confidence to people, but we also need to be transparent.” Hahn emphasized that authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine was “based upon our thorough review of the science and data” (Politico). 

A German survey study published in the research journal JAMA Network Open may help instruct officials on how to earn the public’s trust: namely, by being transparent and admitting to the limitations of scientific knowledge (CIDRAP). In the study, survey participants were asked to read through four public messaging scenarios conveying different levels of uncertainty and rank them in order of preference and how likely the messages were to motivate them to comply with public health recommendations. The study analyzed survey responses from 2,011 respondents and found that significantly more (32.3%) chose the scenario expressing the most uncertainty as their preferred form of communication. A similar percentage chose the high-uncertainty message as the one most likely to motivate them to comply with containment measures. Those who said they believed the government’s pandemic control measures were exaggerated were even more likely to respond well to messages conveying uncertainty, with 39.4% saying the high-uncertainty message would be the most likely to convince them to adopt recommended public health measures. 

State Leaders Still Lack Necessary Funding to Reach Vaccination Goals

For months, state officials across the U.S. have urged Congress to allocate funding totaling $8.4 billion for states to distribute vaccines. This funding has yet to be secured, and state leaders are expressing concern that they will not be able to meet goals proposed by federal leaders and health officials of having most Americans vaccinated by the middle of 2021 (WSJ). Although the federal government is providing vaccines and equipment, states are responsible for setting up vaccination clinics, recruiting and training staff, running community outreach campaigns and ensuring sufficient cold storage for the vaccines.

Pennsylvania health secretary Dr. Rachel Levine, speaking at a Senate hearing on Thursday, said, “this will not be a short-term operation,” reiterating states’ need for large-scale federal funding. Some states have pledged to prioritize vaccination funding in their state budgets, but the move could force cuts to essential areas like education if Congress does not provide additional funding. 

Experts Weigh Allergy Risks of Covid-19 Vaccine

The move by British regulators to recommend against the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine for those with a history of severe vaccine allergies sparked a debate among experts, some of whom are concerned that the recommendation may be too cautious (NYT, STAT).

At a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advisory committee meeting on Saturday, some experts supported an advisory warning against giving the vaccine to anyone with a history of severe vaccine allergies. Others believed that such wording could unnecessarily prevent thousands from receiving the vaccine. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which issued an emergency use authorization on Friday, only warned against vaccination in those who had a history of severe reactions to ingredients specifically found in the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, not to any vaccine. Dr. Peter Marks, director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said that the administration would continue to monitor for allergic reactions to the vaccines and could revise this guidance moving forward.

FDA Leaves Covid-19 Vaccine Open to Pregnant Individuals

In its emergency use authorization of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine on Friday, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) did not list pregnancy or breastfeeding as contraindications for vaccination, leaving the immunization decision up to individuals and their physicians (NYT). The move was somewhat unexpected, as clinical trials excluded those who were pregnant or breastfeeding. However, experts have largely supported the move to leave the decision open to individuals, saying that vaccines taken during pregnancy are generally very safe and that the virus itself is more likely to pose a risk in pregnancy. The FDA plans to closely monitor Covid-19 vaccine safety in pregnancy and lactation, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is expected to issue further guidance in the near future.

Mortality From Many Illnesses Increased in 2020, Analysis Finds

At least 356,000 more people have died in 2020 than would be expected in a normal year. According to a new analysis from the New York Times, not all of these deaths are directly attributable to Covid-19. Using estimates from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the analysis found that more than a quarter of the excess deaths were due to other causes, chief among them diabetes, Alzheimer’s disease and high blood pressure. Some of these deaths may be Covid-19 deaths misattributed to other causes – for instance, deaths attributed to pneumonia and flu were up by 11% – while others are likely due to disruptions to health systems during the pandemic.

For some, economic stress has made it difficult to manage chronic conditions such as diabetes and heart disease. Nationally, deaths from diabetes have increased by 15%. In many states, that number is higher; New Jersey, for instance, saw a 37% increase in diabetes-related mortality. Deaths from Alzheimer’s disease and dementia are 12% above normal nationally, an increase which may be related to strains on nursing homes and the effects of social isolation on the elderly.

Dr. Steven Woolf, director emeritus of the Center on Society and Health at Virginia Commonwealth University, said that deaths alone do not capture the full health impact of the pandemic. Woolf warned that those who have skipped routine health checks or had delays “may end up deteriorating over the next few years because of problems that happened during the pandemic.” Health officials have encouraged people to continue seeking regular medical care during the pandemic. Bonus Read: “Amid Pandemic, Scientists Reassess Routine Medical Care,” (NYT).

Australia Cancels Locally-Developed Covid-19 Vaccine Plan Amid False HIV Positive Tests

On Friday, Australia halted plans to distribute a vaccine developed by the University of Queensland and biotech company CSL after several clinical trial participants falsely tested positive for HIV (NYT). The vaccine uses two fragments of a protein found in HIV. The protein fragments bind to the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, preventing the virus from entering cells and allowing the immune system to quickly eliminate the virus. Researchers said that the protein poses no risk of HIV infection, but the protein fragments elicited a stronger immune response in volunteers than expected, causing HIV antibody tests to read positive.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison said that the false positives risked undermining public trust in the vaccine, saying, “We can’t have any issues with confidence.” The Australian government will compensate the consortium for the loss of the 51 million doses it had planned to buy. Greg Hunt, Australia’s health minister, said the country has ordered 140 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines from other suppliers, more than enough to cover its entire population. 

Flu Infections Remain Low, Easing Fears of Dual Outbreaks

Despite fears earlier this year that surges in flu cases over the winter would combine with Covid-19 to place further strain on hospitals, flu activity has remained low this year (NYT). The CDC “FluView” shows that flu levels in all 50 states remain “low” or “minimal,” whereas at least some states would be expected to reach “high” or “moderate” levels by this time. Experts believe that Covid-19 mitigation efforts and travel restrictions around the world, along with an uptick in flu vaccination rates, have helped to temper infection rates. Though experts say there could still be a rise in flu cases, most are encouraged by the atypically low numbers.

Bonus Reads: “Young People Have Less Covid-19 Risk, but in College Towns, Deaths Rose Fast,” (NYT); “AstraZeneca Agrees to Buy Alexion for $39 Billion,” (WSJ).

Around the World

Europe

Germany Begins Another Hard Lockdown Before Christmas

German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced a strict lockdown on Sunday, one that will see stores and schools closed over Christmas through Jan. 10 (Politico). "We are forced to act and we are acting now," Chancellor Angela Merkel said Sunday at a press conference following a telephone call with the leaders of the 16 German federal states. After weeks of milder restrictions that officials hoped would be enough to curb the spread of the virus, Germans will suffer through a restricted holiday season with nonessential stores, hair salons, and schools closed and companies encouraged to offer employees extended holidays or allow them to work remotely. Private gatherings, including during Christmas, will be limited and the sale and use of fireworks (a New Year celebration essential in Germany) will be prohibited. The new measures start on Wednesday. Germany’s governors have been arguing over how far to take restrictions in recent weeks, culminating in an emotional speech by Merkel in front of parliament last week begging the country to take the situation more seriously and reduce their social contacts. The country had been in “lockdown light” that was effective in reducing infections, but not effective enough; “The situation is out of control,” said Markus Söder, the governor of Bavaria, but other governors were hesitant to enact stricter measures ahead of the holiday season (Der Spiegel). Germany recorded 20,200 new infections on Sunday, an increase of more than 2,000 compared with the same day last week, according to data gathered by the Robert Koch Institute, Germany’s public health authority (NYT).

Sweden’s Health System Exhausted by Second Wave

Sweden, which has been taking a different approach to addressing the pandemic than most other countries in Europe, is now being overwhelmed by a second wave. According to several media reports, the situation in Stockholm is serious, with intensive care capacity at 99% (Der Spiegel). Bjorn Eriksson, director of healthcare for the Stockholm region, said on Wednesday he had asked the government to send extra nurses and hospital staff to deal with the number of Covid patients, according to a Reuters report. "We need help," he told a news conference, noting that 83 patients were in intensive care beds. "That corresponds more or less to all intensive care beds we normally have." 

Italy to Use Primrose-Shaped Gazebos for Vaccination Campaign, Surpasses Britain for Highest Number of Deaths in Europe

Italy will distribute its coronavirus vaccines in primrose-shaped gazebos that will be set up in town squares in the campaign that will kick off in January. Italy hopes to begin vaccinating socio-medical staff and residents of care homes beginning with 1.8 million doses in mid-January. To start, there will be about 300 distribution sites in Italy, increasing to 1,500 once the campaign is at its peak. The primrose-shaped pavilions were designed by architect Stefano Boeri who said his team had picked the flower, which heralds the arrival of spring, as the symbol of the campaign, whose slogan is “Italy is reborn with a flower” (AP). On Saturday, Italy overtook Britain to report the highest official death toll from Covid-19 among European countries: 64,036 people have died in Italy since the start of the outbreak (Reuters).

Cases in the Netherlands Jump, Government to Decide on Stricter Measures Today

The Dutch government will decide on stricter measures to fight the coronavirus outbreak in the Netherlands today as infection rates increased to levels last seen at the end of October (Reuters). New infections have jumped by almost 10,000 in the 24 hours through Sunday morning, according to data released by the national health authorities. It is the biggest increase in more than six weeks. The Netherlands have been in a partial lockdown since mid-October, but schools and shops have remained open. This will likely change after the emergency cabinet meeting that was called today, according to public broadcaster NOS, which said the government was considering closing all non-essential shops and extending the Christmas break for schools. 

Asia

Japan Sets New Daily Record for Covid Cases

Japan’s daily coronavirus case count has exceeded 3,000 for the first time since the pandemic began as the government delays stricter measures ahead of the holiday season (Politico). The 3,030 new cases, including 621 in Tokyo, took Japan’s national tally to 177,287 with 2,562 deaths, the Health Ministry said Sunday. Health experts worry that the rise in serious cases is straining hospitals and medical staff and urged authorities to increase restrictions on the public but government officials are hesitant to put any measures in place that would further burden the struggling economy. According to Politico, “recent media surveys show support ratings for the government of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga have dropped about 20 points from around 70% during his first three months in office amid public discontent over his coronavirus handling.”

South Korea’s President Warns of More Restrictions

South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in warned on Sunday that the government may increase restrictions after a second day of record-breaking increases in coronavirus cases (Reuters). “Unless the outbreak can be contained now, it has come to the critical point of considering escalating social-distancing measures to the third level,” he said, referring to the tightest curbs under the country’s five-tier system. The greater Seoul area, which accounts for about half of the country’s 52 million residents, is under level 2.5 restrictions where restaurants are prohibited from serving customers after 9 p.m. and gatherings of more than 50 people are banned. Moving to Level 3 curbs would mean a hard lockdown for the first time in the country. South Korea reported 1,030 new infections on Sunday following 950 reported the previous day; of the new cases, 1,002 were locally transmitted, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency.

U.S. Government & Politics

Trump Says He Will Delay Plan to Vaccinate White House Staff Members

Following reporting in the New York Times that the White House planned to vaccinate senior White House staffers in the first wave of vaccinations, President Trump said on Sunday night that he would delay the plan to carry out those vaccinations (NYT). The Times writes, “The shift came just hours after The New York Times reported that the administration was rapidly planning to distribute the vaccine to its staff at a time when the first doses are generally being reserved for high-risk health care workers.” Trump tweeted, “People working in the White House should receive the vaccine somewhat later in the program, unless specifically necessary. I have asked that this adjustment be made. I am not scheduled to take the vaccine, but look forward to doing so at the appropriate time. Thank you!”

Biden Team Prepares Vaccine Messaging as Vaccines Rollout Begins

President Elect Joe Biden’s team is preparing a messaging strategy regarding vaccinations, which it will pursue before taking office, as the Pfizer vaccine rollout begins (Politico). Politico reports, “With the first shots being prepared for delivery to states next week, Biden’s team is already laying the groundwork for a public education campaign by placing scientists in top posts — and promising to defer to them — and putting an intensive focus on getting the vaccine to underserved populations, according to public health experts who’ve spoken with the transition.

Biden’s messaging now could have an impact on how quickly the U.S. gets back to normal. Health experts think if 75 to 80 percent of Americans get the shots, the nation can potentially achieve herd immunity by next fall and end the pandemic by the close of next year. Lower participation would mean it would take much longer to effectively stop new infections.” One transition official told Politico the team is “planning on how to communicate in the most creative, transparent and effective ways to reach Americans where they are.” Among the Biden team’s concerns is polling data showing large numbers of Americans unwilling to take or skeptical of the vaccine. 

Trump and the Coronavirus Spur Infighting Among Arizona Republicans

The Arizona Republican party is being “racked by infighting” over Trump’s refusal to concede the election and the state’s worsening coronavirus situation, according to a report Sunday in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The Journal writes, “After Republican Gov. Doug Ducey defended Arizona’s election system last month, the state GOP chairwoman, Kelli Ward, tweeted that he should #STHU, shorthand for “shut the hell up.” (She later said in a radio interview she meant “shut the heck up.”) Mr. Ducey told reporters: “The feeling’s mutual to her.” Meanwhile Arizona Representative Andy Biggs, a republican, tweeted criticism of Ducey, accusing him of being unclear on whether he would mandate vaccinations and saying, “Like all freedom-loving Arizonans, I am left wondering if the Governor intends to coerce vaccinations, and whether the State Legislature will let him.” In turn, Ducey’s chief of staff commented that Biggs should “enjoy your time as a permanent resident of Crazytown.” The Journal notes that some Republicans fear the infighting is a sign of a rocky future for the party, writing, “Some Republicans say the party division is here to stay and will play out in primaries for competitive races in 2022. That concerns center-right Republicans who believe establishment candidates will have the best shot at winning in a competitive state. Arizona, once seen as a Republican stronghold, narrowly voted for Mr. Biden for president this year. It also elected its second consecutive Democrat to the U.S. Senate.”

U.S. Economy

Eviction Wave Approaches as Federal Ban Set to Expire

As we have covered in previous briefs, the U.S. is poised for a massive wave of evictions in January as the CDC’s ban on evictions is set to expire absent further actions (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “Between 2.4 million and 5 million American households are at risk of eviction in January alone, and millions more will be vulnerable in the months after, according to estimates from the investment bank and financial-advisory firm Stout Risius Ross,” adding, ‘More American renters could be evicted from their homes in January than in any month ever.” The Journal also notes, “Landlords have already filed more than 150,000 eviction petitions during the pandemic in the 27 cities tracked by Princeton University’s Eviction Lab. Many of those tenants have lost their cases, and are now on the hook for all their back rent.”

Bonus Read: “Why the Office Isn’t Going Away,” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

Charley Pride, the First Black Major Country Music Star, Dies of Covid-19

On December 12th, Charley Pride, the first Black major country music star, died of Covid-19 at the age of 86 (WaPo). Pride was a minor league baseball player who moved into country music. The Washington Post writes, “It took him nearly two years to get a contract. Record executives loved his demo tapes but got cold feet after viewing his picture. In one audition, he was told, ‘Now sing in your regular voice.’ A talent scout even suggested that Mr. Pride sell himself as a novelty by dressing in Colonial garb and adopting the stage name of George Washington Carver III. Finally, country guitarist Chet Atkins, who was also an RCA Records executive, saw promise in the singer.” Pride, who grew up in Mississippi’s cotton fields, had more than 50 top 10 records on the country music charts. The Post writes, “Mr. Pride was one of the genre’s most popular and durable performers. He sang of hoboing and hitchhiking on “The Atlantic Coastal Line” (1966) and “Is Anybody Goin’ to San Antone” (1970), adultery on “The Snakes Crawl at Night” (1966) and heartbreak on “Just Between You and Me” (1966) — and brought a pained believability to each.”

Pandemic Drives Growth in Hunting and Fishing

The pandemic has led to growth in hunting and fishing with its outdoor and small group nature (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “Hunting licence sales are up more than 12% nationwide from last year, according to the National Shooting Sports Foundation, a firearms trade group. If the trend continues through the end of the year, those license sales translate to 1 million more hunters this year than last, according to Jim Curcuruto, director of research with the foundation. Fishing has also seen greater interest, with 3 million more licenses sold nationwide this year than last, a 14% increase, said Stephanie Vatalaro, spokeswoman for the Recreational Boating and Fishing Foundation.” The National Rifle Association also reports it has seen a hunting-driven growth in membership. The Journal reports, “On a recent day just before Wisconsin’s rifle deer season opened, the state was selling 41 permits per minute on its website, said Eric Lobner of the state’s Department of Natural Resources. Archery licenses for hunting are up 10% and gun licenses are up 1%. That might not seem like much, but for much of the past decade license purchases have declined about a percentage point each year, Lobner said.”

Bonus Read: “A Pandemic Side Effect: Used Masks Polluting California Coastal Waters, (WaPo).

Analysis & Arguments

David Quammen writes on the interaction between bats, humans, and the virus (NYT).

Michelle Goldberg writes on how those in Trump’s circles have received coronavirus treatments unavailable to most Americans (NYT).

Sarah Zhang writes on the coming six months of vaccine purgatory as the vaccine is distributed to some but not all (Atlantic).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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