Friday's employment report showed a lower-than-expected rise in the number of jobs created in July accompanied by a significant downward revision to the prior two months. A key question for the Federal Reserve will be whether the underlying economy is weakening or whether the recent slowdown reflects the lagging but temporary effects of certain other policy changes. A chief White House economic adviser said Sunday that President Trump wants his allies placed in the Bureau of Labor Statistics after the agency published the surprisingly dismal report and the president later fired its commissioner. Trump said in the coming days he would be naming a new statistician to lead BLS.

The July jobs report could give Federal Reserve officials a sense of déjà vu.

Last year, officials decided against cutting interest rates at their July policy meeting, but an employment report two days later suggested the labor market wasn’t as strong as it looked. Officials made up for it by cutting rates by a half-percentage point, larger than the traditional quarter point increment, at their subsequent meeting in September.

This week, officials also held rates steady only to wake up Friday to news that the labor market unexpectedly cooled over the past few months. Traders increased the chances of a September rate cut to more than 70% from 38% Thursday.

• U.S. Hiring Slowed Sharply Over the Summer
• The Wild Week in the American Economy

President Trump fired the top Bureau of Labor Statistics official after the government published new data showing that U.S. hiring slowed sharply this summer. Trump said BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer would be “replaced with someone much more competent and qualified,” claiming in a social-media post the government’s jobs numbers have been manipulated for political purposes. “In my opinion, today’s Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad,” Trump wrote.

• Why Jobs Numbers Were Revised Sharply Downward for June, May
• Labor Department Skirts Senators’ Questions on Inflation Data
• Trump Seeks Bigger Overhaul at Labor Statistics Bureau, Adviser Says

The ISM survey of activity in the U.S. services sector will be closely watched as investors continue to gauge the likelihood of U.S. interest-rate cuts in the coming weeks, particularly after U.S. jobs data for July were much weaker than expected. Further news on tariff deals will be watched too after U.S. President Trump announced steeper levies for dozens of countries, though most of these will take effect from August 7. In Europe, the Bank of England announces a decision and could reduce interest rates. In Asia, Japan’s central bank will release minutes, which should share details that led up to the recently announced U.S. trade deal. An interest-rate decision from India is also due, alongside trade and inflation data from China. Read more.

The Bank of England is expected to lower its key interest rate for a fifth time Thursday, sticking to a cautious removal of the restraints it has placed on the economy at a time when inflation remains high even as there are clear signs of a cooling in the jobs market.

In some ways, the BOE’s challenge resembles that faced by the Federal Reserve. Inflation has picked up largely because of government decisions about utilities pricing and taxes. Most policymakers expect inflation to fall back in response to anemic growth, but worry that cutting borrowing costs too quickly will delay that process. Read more.

• It’s a Tough Job Market for New College Grads. Is an Advanced Degree Worth It?

10 a.m.: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
10 a.m.: Employment Trends Index

8:30 a.m.: U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
9 a.m.: Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
9:45 a.m.: US Services PMI
10 a.m.: ISM Report On Business Services PMI
10 a.m.: RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
11 a.m.: Global Services PMI
11 a.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Q2 Household Debt and Credit Report published

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said she remains comfortable with the central bank's choice to hold rates steady this week even after seeing weakening job creation in the July jobs report Friday morning. In a TV interview with Bloomberg, Hammack said the Fed is right to be attentive to inflation, too. "We have to look at, if we're missing, by how much and for how long do we expect those misses to last? And right now, we're missing by much more on the inflation side than we're missing on the employment side." Hammack isn't a Fed voter this year. — Matt Grossman

U.S. Federal Reserve governor Adriana Kugler's decision to resign adds another layer of uncertainty to the outlook for monetary policy, says MUFG's Derek Halpenny in a note. U.S. President Trump said in a statement that he might announce a replacement in the "next few days." The new appointee "could help shape the views of others" and potentially be seen as a further threat to Fed independence, the head of research says. Trump has been exerting pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates. — Emese Bartha

There is one more interest-rate cut in store for the European Central Bank, according to Barclays' analysts. Barclays now expects a single 25-basis-point rate cut at the ECB's December meeting, leaving the terminal deposit rate at 1.75% throughout 2026, the analysts say in a note. This is a change in call as Barclays has removed the 25-basis-point policy rate cut they had been expected at the September meeting, given the resilience in activity in the eurozone. "This revision reflects both our reading of the ECB's reaction function and our updated growth forecast, which still incorporates a softening in economic activity." — Emese Bartha

• U.S. factory activity continued to slide backward in July, adding to signs of weakness in the sector despite the wider economy proving resilient.
• Swiss annual inflation inched higher last month, though remained close to negative territory, suggesting the Swiss National Bank is still on course to push interest rates below zero later this year.
• Annual inflation continues to ease in Turkey, clearing the way for the country’s central bank to keep cutting interest rates. Consumer prices were 33.5% higher on year in July, down from 35.1% in June, figures from the Turkish statistical office showed Monday.
• China is limiting the flow of critical minerals to Western defense manufacturers, delaying production and forcing companies to scour the world for stockpiles of the minerals needed to make everything from bullets to jet fighters.
• Moody’s upgraded the Dominican Republic citing its high growth rates and diversified economy. The ratings agency upgraded to Ba2 from Ba3 the country’s long-term local, foreign-currency issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings. The outlook was revised to stable from positive.

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by news associate Roshan Fernandez in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to roshan.fernandez@wsj.com.