Good morning. WSJLI poll shows stark difference between business executives’ views versus everyday Americans; winter storm hits United States; Merck no longer in discussions to buy biotech RevMed.

Greetings, CFOs. When it comes to recession concerns, worries are still running high—and politicians (rather than business leaders) are bearing the brunt of the blame.

That’s according to the latest pulse poll from the WSJ Leadership Institute, which has the latest results to share with you from our survey of more than 1,000 U.S. adults 18 and older. We wanted to get a sense of what U.S. consumers are going through, and to gauge sentiment about the U.S. economy, the role (or blame) that goes to politicians versus business leaders, and how Americans feel about their financial compensation and stability.

One of the more stark findings was the gap between views of business leaders and everyday Americans. The poll highlights a striking disconnect between public sentiment and business executives' views on recession risk.

Over half of Americans (52%) believe the U.S. will likely enter a recession in 2026, with 23% thinking a recession is very likely and 29% thinking it is somewhat likely. Only 20% say it is unlikely, according to the poll, which was conducted Jan 20–21, 2026, among an online sample of 1,014 U.S. adults by TrueDot.ai, the AI-accelerated research platform.

Only 12% of executives share this concern (just 2% very likely, 10% somewhat likely).

In the event of a recession, the majority (58%) would blame politicians rather than business leaders (7%) or the Federal Reserve (14%). Older generations are more likely to blame politicians. 

Conversely, 67% of executives consider a recession unlikely—more than three times the 20% of the public holding that view. This gap in outlook reveals a significant divergence in economic confidence between those leading businesses and the average American (Note: Consumers felt a bit better about the economy in January as sentiment lifted off from near-historical lows reached late last year, according to the University of Michigan’s monthly survey.)

Overall, some 53% of Americans are satisfied with their current compensation, with only 20% feeling very satisfied. Meanwhile, 28% of Americans feel dissatisfied with their financial compensation.

A big week of earnings are ahead, as about a fifth of S&P 500 companies will report, including four of the Magnificent Seven.

Here’s the rundown for the week.

Monday

Earnings: Nucor and Steel Dynamics

The Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November.

Tuesday

Earnings: Boeing, BXP, F5, General Motors, HCA Healthcare, Invesco, Kimberly-Clark, NextEra Energy, Northrop Grumman, Paccar, Packaging Corp. of America, PPG Industries, Roper Technologies, RTX, Seagate Technology Holdings, Synchrony Financial, Sysco, Texas Instruments, Union Pacific, UnitedHealth Group and United Parcel Service

S&P Cotality releases the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for November.

The Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index for January.

Wednesday

Earnings: Amphenol, ASML Holding, AT&T, Automatic Data Processing, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Corning, Danaher, Elevance Health, Fair Isaac, General Dynamics, GE Vernova, IBM, Lam Research, Las Vegas Sands, Lennox International, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, MSCI, NVR, Otis Worldwide, Raymond James Financial, ServiceNow, Southwest Airlines, Starbucks, Tesla, Textron, United Rentals and Waste Management

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision.

Thursday

Earnings: Altria Group, Ameriprise Financial, A.O. Smith, Apple, Arthur J. Gallagher, Blackstone, Caterpillar, Comcast, Deckers Outdoor, Deutsche Bank, Dover, Dow, Hartford Insurance Group, Hologic, Honeywell International, International Paper, KLA, L3Harris Technologies, Lockheed Martin, Marsh & McLennan, Mastercard, Nasdaq, Norfolk Southern, Parker-Hannifin, PulteGroup, ResMed, Royal Caribbean Group, Sandisk, Sanofi, SAP, Sherwin-Williams, Stryker, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Tractor Supply, Tran Technologies, Valero Energy, Visa, Western Digital and Weyerhaeuser

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the producer price index for December.

Friday

Earnings: Air Products & Chemicals, American Express, Aon, Charter Communications, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, Church & Dwight, Exxon Mobil, Franklin Resources, LyondellBasell Industries, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, SoFi Technologies and Verizon Communications

Exclusive: Merck had recently been in talks to acquire biotech Revolution Medicines in a deal that could have valued the cancer-drug biotech at around $30 billion.

But Merck is no longer in discussions to buy biotech RevMed, according to people familiar with the matter.

WSJ reporters Lauren Thomas and Jonathan D. Rockoff reported that the talks cooled after the two couldn’t come to an agreement on price, some of the people said.

📰 Other headlines

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• The Man Who Almost Replaced Warren Buffett
• Wall Street Has Fallen Out of Love With Software Stocks
• Quantum-Computing Company IonQ to Buy Chip Maker SkyWater for $1.8 Billion
• The New Tax Rules That Can Get You a Bigger Refund This Year
• Health Insurance Is Now More Expensive Than the Mortgage for These Americans
• A New Breed of Shared Offices Is Bringing the Co-Working Market Back to Life
• Canada’s Carney Ditches ‘Mr. Nice Guy’ Approach to Trump
• The World Economy Is Hooked on Government Debt
• The Secret Society of People Who Know the Formula for WD-40

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AMC Networks CFO Patrick O'Connell is leaving the television broadcasting and production company to pursue an opportunity outside of the media industry. O'Connell, who joined the New York company as finance chief in September 2022, will stay on through March and participate in its 2025 earnings call. AMC said it has launched a search for O'Connell's successor.

Deere has named Ryan Campbell interim CFO following the resignation of Joshua Jepsen. Jepsen's resignation from his role is effective Feb. 19, the company said in a filing with the SEC. The disclosure comes after Honeywell named Jepsen as the CFO of its planned aerospace spinoff, effective Feb. 23. Campbell has been president, worldwide construction and forestry and power systems at Deere since May 2022. He was previously senior vice president, CFO. Campbell's appointment takes effect Feb. 19.

—Colin Kellaher and Kelly Cloonan contributed to today’s Ledger.
 

The Wall Street Journal's CFO Journal offers corporate leaders and professionals CFO analysis, advice and commentary to make informed decisions. We cover topics including corporate tax, accounting, regulation, capital markets, management and strategy.

Follow us on X @WSJCFO. The WSJ CFO Journal Team comprises reporters Kristin Broughton, Mark Maurer and Jennifer Williams, and Bureau Chief Walden Siew.

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