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The Fed’s July Minutes Could Show How Deep Divisions Run

By Vicky Ge Huang

 

Investors don’t have to wait until Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday for clues about the central bank’s next move. The minutes for the July meeting of the Fed’s policymaking arm, the Federal Open Market Committee, are due out Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET—and may offer an early read on whether officials will cut rates in September. In Europe, Sweden’s central bank held its policy interest rate as inflation continues to climb, but said it could resume cutting rates later this year. And in Asia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered another interest-rate cut, extending an aggressive cycle that began midway through last year as the economy struggles to gain momentum.

 

Top News

The Fed’s July Minutes Could Show How Deep Divisions Run

Photo: Karen Bleier/AFP/Getty Images

 

The Federal Reserve's July meeting was notable for the first dual dissent from sitting Fed governors in more than three decades: Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller voted to cut rates by a quarter point, instead of keeping them steady in the 4.25-4.5% range. The 9-2 vote marked the first time since 1993 that multiple governors broke with the majority.

Both Bowman and Waller have since defended their positions in separate statements. Waller said he favors gradual rate cuts of up to 1.5 percentage points, arguing the “wait and see approach is overly cautious” and risks leaving policy “behind the curve.” Bowman said tariff-driven price increases are a one-off shock that shouldn’t prevent easing.

Powell, in his post-meeting press conference, described their arguments as strong and logical.

“This was quite a good meeting all around the table,” he said. “People thought carefully about this and put their positions out there.”

The minutes may reveal how other officials responded to the dissenters and provide more detail on the committee’s views about inflation, tariffs, and a weakening labor market. Investors are pricing in an 85% chance of a September cut, down from nearly 100% earlier this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. (Barron's)

 

Sweden Central Bank Stands Pat, But Says It Could Cut Again

The Riksbank said Wednesday that the central bank's policy rate will be left at 2.00%, in a decision widely expected by investors. But “the Executive Board sees some probability of a further interest rate cut this year,” it said.

New Zealand’s Central Bank Cuts Rates, Sees More on Horizon

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's official cash rate was lowered to 3.00% from 3.25% on Wednesday, in line with the broad consensus of economists. The RBNZ said it considered a 50-basis-point reduction and expects to cut further if inflation remains muted.

U.S. Allies Still Waiting for Tariff Relief on Autos and Steel

In return for billions of dollars of investment pledges and promises to buy more American goods, U.S. allies in Asia and Europe say President Trump agreed to lower tariffs on key exports such as cars and steel. Weeks later, they are still waiting.

 

Financial Regulation

Fed’s Bowman Urges Less ‘Cautious Mindset’ on Crypto

The Federal Reserve’s top banking supervisor is calling for a fundamental shift in how regulators approach emerging technologies, signaling a more aggressive embrace of cryptocurrency, blockchain, and artificial intelligence in the traditional banking system.

Speaking at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium on Tuesday afternoon, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman urged her fellow regulators to abandon their “overly cautious mindset” and work proactively with financial institutions to adapt to technological change. Her comments mark a departure from the Fed’s historically conservative approach to financial innovation. (Barron's)

 

Forward Guidance

Wednesday (all times ET)

7 a.m.: MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
2 p.m.: Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published

Thursday

7:30 a.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks at Metro Atlanta Chamber executive committee meeting
8:30 a.m.: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
9:45 a.m.: US Flash Manufacturing PMI
9:45 a.m.: US Flash Services PMI
10 a.m.: Existing Home Sales

 

Research

Fed's Bowman Wants to Give Banks More Flexibility on UST Markets

The Fed is still working on an enhanced capital framework for U.S. banks, Fed governor Michelle Bowman says in a Bloomberg interview. She says one pillar of the framework, the supplemental leverage ratio, has worked as a binding constraint "in cases where there's been a lot of activity in the Treasury market." Bowman said the goal is to be more flexible. "We wanted to make sure that banks have the ability to allocate capital in ways that are helpful and productive for them." She says the Fed wants to ensure that "we're not disincentivizing activities that would allow [banks] to intermediate the Treasury markets." — Paulo Trevisani

 

Basis Points

  • Housing construction in the U.S. jumped much more than expected last month, reflecting a recovery in the multifamily market as developers respond to demand for rental housing.
  • The pace of inflation in Canada cooled last month, offering some hope the central bank will resume lowering interest rates to help revive a sluggish economy being held down by trade uncertainty.
  • Annual inflation in the U.K. rose to an 18-month high last month, raising the chance that Bank of England policymakers might hold off from cutting rates in the coming months.
  • Europe should deepen look to strengthen its relationships with trade partners outside the U.S., European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said.
  • Japan’s exports in July saw their biggest drop in over four years, falling for a third straight month amid concerns over the impact of U.S. tariffs.
  • Malaysia’s economic data paints a rosy picture of steady growth and low inflation. But that’s not the reality for many consumers and their cost-of-living issues could eventually scotch the recovery.
 

About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.

 
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