Get the pattern, read the trend

Asia in Review

No. 38, September/2019, 3

Brought to you by CPG

Dear Readers,

Welcome to the third issue of ‘Asia in Review’ (AiR) in September updating you on the latest developments in geopolitics and international relations as well as constitutional politics, law reform and governance in Asia.

I wish you an informative read.

With the best wishes,

Henning Glaser

Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)

Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU/

Main Sections

• Law and Politics in East Asia

• Law and Politics in South Asia

• Law and Politics in South East Asia

• International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

• Background Reading

Law and Politics in East Asia 

China/Hong Kong: Another violent weekend of protest

(dql) In the latest round of anti-government protests at the 15th straight weekend of unrest, Kong Kong police and protestors clashed outside a main government building on Sunday, after the latter defied a police ban by marching through the central business district where police used water cannon, tear gas and rubber bullets against protesters who blocked roads and threw petrol bombs. [Reuters]

Earlier on Saturday, anti-government protesters also clashed with pro-Beijing supporters who waved Chinese flags, sang the national anthem and cheered on riot police underscoring a trend in recent weeks in which pro-China groups have become more vocal in supporting the Hong Kong government and the police. [Aljazeera] [ABC]

Meanwhile, hundreds of social work students and social workers on Monday took to the streets to rally against what they see as disregard of the role of Hong Kong’s social workers by the police, after at least 14 of them, who have mediated in clashes with anti-government protesters over the past three months, have been arrested. [South China Morning Post]

In a latest development, Hong Kong’s embattled Chief Executive Carrie Lam announced to kick-start next week an official program of dialogue with up to 200 randomly selected citizens next week, in an attempt to reconnect with the public in order to resolve the political crisis. [Hong Kong Free Press]

China: More autonomy for local legislatures?

(dql) According to Xinhua news, China is set to undertake a major reform of its local government system as the Commission of Legislative Affairs of the National People's Congress (NPC) Standing Committee plans to propose to the NPC to expand the scope of law making power on the local level. 

Before the reform and opening up, the NPC was the only body with legislative powers. Since 1979, legislative powers have been delegated to people's congresses on provincial-level and their standing committees. With the 2015 amendment of the Legislation Law all cities with subordinate districts are allowed to make local regulations, although restricted to urban management and environmental and cultural protection.  [Xinhua] [South China Morning Post]

Japan: Abe seeks stability with cabinet reshuffle 

(dql) Prime Minister Abe’s cabinet reshuffle last week manifested his desire for political stability. While the reshuffle changed ministers in 17 of the 19 posts including in 13 first timers, most of these first timers are either long-term trusted Abe-loyalists or candidates of various factions of the LDP indicating Abe’s emphasis on stability and intra-party peace as political basis for his push for constitutional revision which he was quick to reassure immediately after the announcement of the new cabinet. The only exception is the appointment of political rising star Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of the former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi and four-term MP, as Japan’s new Minister for Environment. [Eurasia Review] [Japan Times]

It was Abe’s fourth cabinet reshuffle since he has come to power in 2012 and is believed to be his last one before his term as president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will end in 2021, making the ministers of this cabinet potential heirs of Abe as party leader or Prime Minister. Koizumi, who is the fourth generation of the Koizumi family to hold a parliamentary seat, is widely tipped as future prime minister following latest survey results on the question who should be prime minister which ranks him second after Abe, with 19.9% support compared with 20.1% for the incumbent prime minister. [The Guardian] [Today]

For a critical assessment of Abe’s calculation of Koizumi’s appointment “as more of a plus than a minus for his administration” see [East Asia Forum].

Taiwan: Taiwan’s richest person won’t run for presidency

(dql) Against widespread expectations, Terry Gou, founder of Apple supplier Foxconn and according to Forbes Taiwan’s richest person with a net worth of 7.6 billion USD announced on Monday that he will not run for presidency in 2020. [Focus Taiwan]

Following his defeat in the July primaries of the opposition Kuomintang party (KMT) it was widely believed that he would join the presidential race as independent candidate contending with the KMT’s candidate Han Kuo-yu and President Tsai Ing-wen from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party.

In an earlier move last week, Gou withdrew from the KTM, according to one of his aides, because the KMT’s “conservative, hidebound party leadership is putting their own interests ahead of their party's, and the party's interests ahead of the nation's.” This move was widely seen as paving the way for his presidential bid. [Straits Times]

Law and Politics in South Asia 

Situation in Kashmir remains tense

(jk) With schools remaining closed and public transport affected, life in Kashmir continues to be disturbed by the abrogation of Article 370 and 35a. While landlines across the valley were allegedly functional, voice calls on mobile devices were working only in some districts of north Kashmir. Markets and other business establishments remained closed, while public transport was off the roads across the valley. Internet services remained suspended across all platforms. While restrictions on the movement or assembly of people have been lifted for some areas of the valley, security forces continued to be deployed to maintain law and order.  (India Today)

Over the last six weeks, there were an average of nearly 20 protests per day against Indian rule despite the security lockdown. [Straits Times 1] It was further reported that authorities over the last few weeks arrested more than 3,800 people of which about 2,600 have been released again. [Straits Times 2]

Pakistan's PM Khan, in recent interview with [Al Jazeera] was not doing much to lower tension either: he "absolutely" believes a nuclear war with India could be a possibility. He called out what he believes is an illegal annexation by India and an impending genocide. "If say Pakistan, God forbid, we are fighting a conventional war, we are losing, and if a country is stuck between the choice: either you surrender or you fight until death for your freedom, I know Pakistanis will fight to death for their freedom. So, when a nuclear armed country fights to the end, to the death, it has consequences."

India's foreign minister has repeated Indian talking points in an interview of his own: India's approach to Kashmir has been measured, it is done to help develop the region, in line with past agreements made and mediation between India and Pakistan will only happen bilaterally, with no third parties involved. [CNBC]

Bangladesh: Kashmir is India’s internal matter

(jk) The Foreign Minister of Bangladesh has told his colleague from Pakistan that India’s decision to upend Articles 370 and 35a of the Indian Constitution is India’s internal matter, therefore not lending his support to Pakistan, from which the country gained independence in 1971. [Economic Times]

Pakistan: mob attack on Hindu temple, school and homes

(jk) Mob violence broke out in Pakistan after a group of people came together and vandalised a school, temple and a home based on blasphemy accusations against a school principle. The principle, accused by a student, allegedly insulted Islam  [Geo] [Times of India].

Authorities since arrested some members of the mob. The accused is in custody facing blasphemy charges which carry the death penalty. [BBC]

Sri Lanka: Constitutional Court does not drop corruption charges against Gotabaya Rajapaksa 

(jk) Sri Lanka’s constitutional court rejected an appeal last week by Gotabaya Rajapaksa to dismiss corruption charges against him. Rajapaksa, brother of the former President, is by many seen as the most likely frontrunner in the upcoming presidential elections.  Should he be found guilty of the charges however it is possible that he might not be allowed to run. [Colombo Page]

Law and Politics in Southeast Asia 

Indonesia: Former president Habibie dies at 83

(ls) Bacharuddin Jusuf Habibie, who as president of Indonesia ushered in an era of democracy that ended the rule of Haji Mohamed Suharto, whose 32-year dictatorship was one of the most brutal and corrupt of the 20th century, died on Wednesday at a hospital in Jakarta at the age of 83. He received a state funeral with military honors on Thursday. The New York Times has published an obituary. [New York Times]

Habibie, who was Indonesia’s president for only 17 months in 1998-99, allowed democratic reforms and an independence referendum for East Timor following the ouster of Suharto. An engineer educated in Indonesia and Germany, Habibie spent nearly two decades working for German aircraft maker Messerschmitt-Boelkow-Blohm, rising to the position of vice-president and director of applied technology. In 1974, he became the science and technology minister under Suharto. [South China Morning Post]

Indonesia: Arrests in Papua as Widodo meets with representatives

(td/ls) Indonesian Police in Papua have arrested 85 suspects since ethnic unrest erupted in the country’s easternmost region in mid-August. At least four people have been killed in the political violence following protests over perceived racial and ethnic discrimination, spread over two weeks in a string of Papuan towns. Some protesters have demanded a referendum on independence, something the government has ruled out. In Jakarta, President Joko Widodo met with Papuan leaders and students at the presidential palace a bid to soothe tensions. An internet blackout had been lifted for most parts of Papua after three weeks, though it remained in place for major cities like Jayapura, Manokwari and Sorong. [Channel News Asia]

In an RSIS commentary on the recent violent riots in Indonesia’s Papua and West Papua provinces, the author describes who Papua’s problems are more complex than just isolation and economic poverty. It is argued that, although Jokowi’s focus on welfare and development-oriented policy in Papua is important, money is not enough. The author points out that the government does not recognize the political and historical grievances of the conflicts, leaving the Papuans in constant unrest over the years, undermining the efforts to make Papuans feel like the government is serious about their welfare. [RSIS]

Malaysia: UMNO and PAS join forces to challenge Pakatan Harapan

(ls/td) Malaysia's two biggest Malay Muslim parties agreed on a political cooperation pact that they hope will unite the majority community against the Pakatan Harapan (PH) government. The chiefs of former rivals UMNO and Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) signed a "National Cooperation" charter outlining the formal terms of their pact, which has won them three by-elections as an informal arrangement over the past year. It stresses the primacy of Islam and the Malays. The alliance ends more than 40 years of enmity between UMNO and opposition stalwart PAS. But it has also sparked fears of racial polarization. [Straits Times]

While non-Malays accuse the government of favoring Malay voters, Malays question whether it can continue to safeguard their privileges, which are enshrined in the constitution. Malays receive affirmative-action privileges – such as housing discounts and preferential access to education and business – that are meant to correct income inequalities. However, observers also say the policies have bred resentment and stifled competitiveness. [South China Morning Post]

Malaysia: Sabah and Sarawak demand better status

(ls) On the occasion of Malaysia’s National Holiday (16 September), the states of Sabah and Sarawak have renewed their demands for an elevation of their economic development and legal status. When the Pakatan Harapan government lead by Mahathir Mohamad swept to power in May 2018, it promised to restore autonomy to these territories. However, there has been little movement in this regard. An attempt earlier this year to amend the constitution and restore its original wording specifying Sabah and Sarawak as equal partners failed, with East Malaysian lawmakers criticizing the amendment as being an empty gesture. The discrepancies in terms of economic development between East and West Malaysia are substantial. East Malaysians often accuse West Malaysians of privilege and ignorance when it comes to Sabah and Sarawak. [South China Morning Post]

Philippines will not allow U.N. “bastards” to investigate drug war

(ls) The Philippines will not allow visits by United Nations representatives to investigate its bloody war on drugs. Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr. called the human rights experts “bastards” who had already demonstrated prejudice. The United Nations Human Rights Council approved a resolution in July to compile a comprehensive report on President Rodrigo Duterte’s three-year crackdown, during which thousands of people have been killed. The International Criminal Court is also currently conducting a preliminary investigation into the killings that could amount to crimes against humanity. [Reuters]

Philippines: Attack on newspaper’s printing house illustrates continued threat to journalists

(ls) In the latest attack against the press in the Philippines, the printing house of a leading Philippine tabloid was stormed and burned by armed men. The incident is the first attack of its kind on a news outfit in recent history. Most attacks against Philippine media have been focused on journalists themselves, including legal cases, bans, harassment, and killings. [Rappler]

The Philippines was placed 134th out of 180 countries this year on the World Press Freedom Index of Reporters Without Borders. In 2018, the country ranked 133rd. According to a report released by various Philippine-based media groups, there have been 128 cases of attacks and threats against Philippine press from 30 June 2016 to 30 April 2019. [PhilStar]

Thailand: Constitutional Court declines to rule on incomplete oath

(ls) Thailand’s Constitutional Court last week unanimously declined to rule on a controversy over the new prime minister and his cabinet who failed to swear the full oath of office before King Maha Vajiralongkorn. The oath omitted the part about upholding the constitution. The Constitutional Court issued a statement saying the swearing-in was between the King and the cabinet, and that “the oath to the King is therefore not under the review authority of any agencies under the constitution.” The decision said that the oath-taking concerns an action which reflects a ‘specific relationship’ between the cabinet and the King and is considered a political issue under an act of government. [Bangkok Post] [Reuters]

Thailand: Another small party leaves the government coalition

(ls) Another small party has left the multi-party coalition government in Thailand. The Prachatham Thai Party announced its decision last week after Deputy Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives Minister Thammanat Prompao – who is himself under pressure over alleged criminal act in the past – used a metaphor implying that he was a caretaker of monkeys who needed to keep feeding them with bananas. As a representative from the Palang Pracharat Party, he was assigned to mediate with the small parties which reportedly are unhappy with the lack of political appointments for them. A few weeks ago, the Thai Civilized Party had already left the coalition. [Bangkok Post] [Straits Times

International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia

China-USA relations: Beijing clashes with Washington over UNAMA resolution while engaging with Moscow in massive military exercise

(dql) The United Nations Security Council has again become the arena of Chinese-US tensions. China and Russia clashed with the US and other United Nations Security Council members on Monday as Beijing insisted on including a reference to its Belt and Road Initiative in a resolution on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) as condition for it not vetoing the extension of the mission’s six-month mandate expiring on Tuesday.   

UNAMA is a political UN mission established at the request of the Afghan government to assist it and the people of country in building up the foundations for sustainable peace and development.

While resolutions in the past years all contained a wording welcoming and calling for efforts – among them  China’s Belt and Road initiative – to facilitate trade and transit, the United States and other Western council members demanded the removal of the language during the mandate renewal talks in March, with Washington accusing Beijing of pursuing a resolution on “Chinese national political priorities rather than the people of Afghanistan”. The ensuing standoff resulted in the renewal of the mandate for only six-month instead of one year. [Reuters] [South China Morning Post]

Passage of a resolution requires nine votes in favor, in addition to no vetoes by the United States, China, France, Russia and Britain.

China’s threat to veto the current German-Indonesian draft resolution comes a week after US President Trump’s cancellation of planned secret talks between Washington and the Taliban following a Taliban suicide attack in Kabul early September killing a US service member and days ahead of the trip of a Chinese delegation to Washington this week to prepare face-to-face trade talks between Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin in October. [BBC] [CNBC]

Sending a powerful signal to the USA and the West, Russia, meanwhile, launched on Monday the massive six-day military exercise Center-2019 with participation of China, India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, involving 128,000 military personnel, more than 20,000 weapons and military equipment, about 600 aircraft and up to 15 ships and support vessels. [Radio Free Europe]

China’s new supersonic spy drone unveiled

(dql) Photographs have unveiled for the first time China’s new supersonic spy drone displayed during a rehearsal for the National Day military parade on October 1 which marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. Among the two types of unmanned aerial vehicle shown on the photos was the DR-8 or Wuzhen 8 which, according to experts, would be expected to play a key role in case of a conflict with US aircraft carrier strike groups in the South China Sea or Western Pacific. [Business Insider]

Cross-Strait relations: Solomon Islands cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan

(dql) Beijing has warned Taipei that it will lose all of its diplomatic allies in case Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen is re-elected next year 2020. The warning was part of an article posted on a social media account, which the overseas edition of Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily is running, and comes after the Solomon Islands government decided on Monday to sever its ties with Taiwan and take up diplomatic relations with Beijing.

Reducing the number of countries with diplomatic ties to Taiwan to 16, the Solomon Islands’ defection was the latest of six under Tsai’s presidency, following Burkina Faso, the Dominican Republic, Sao Tome and Principe, Panama and El Salvador. [Deutsche Welle] [South China Morning Post]

While Beijing lauded Solomon Islands’ decision as reflecting "an irresistible trend of the times", Taipei criticized Beijing for its “dollar diplomacy” accusing it of attempting to influence Taiwan’s legislative and presidential elections in January 2020. [CNN][Aljazeera]

China and Argentina sign deal on soymeal

(dql) Underscoring growing footprint in Latin America, China and Argentina, the world’s biggest soymeal producer, last week signed an agreement to export the animal feed to China. [Reuters]

Japan set to build up Space Self-Defense Force

(dql) Speaking to 180 high-ranking Self-Defense Force (SDF) officers at the Defense Ministry, Prime Minister Abe has announced plans to transform Japan's existing Air Self-Defense Force into a “Air and Space SDF" in the future highlighting the need to strengthen the country's defense capabilities in outer space. His remarks come amid an intensifying space race among the United States, Russia and China. [Mainichi] 

Japan-South Korea: Trade dispute reaches WTO

(dql) The World Trade Organization has disclosed that South Korea has lodged a complaint against Japan’s imposition of tighter controls on exports of semiconductor materials to South Korea. The complaint argues that Tokyo’s measure lacks any legitimate export control considerations and is politically motivated. Japan denies these claims, insisting that the measure is in line with WTO rules. [Japan Times]

India and Pakistan join SCO anti-terror drills in Russia

(jk) India and Pakistan will both be part of a military drill along with China and five other countries (Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) in Russia this month under the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Iran will be present as an observer. Both India and Pakistan entered the grouping as observers in 2005 and became full members in 2017. This is the second time the two participate in the SCO military drills together. [Financial Express]

Russia and India discussing local production of S400s and use of national currencies 

(jk) In the latest development of the significant India-Russia defence deal surrounding the  S-400 Air Defense System, Moscow and New Delhi are now also discussing possibilities of local production of some of the weapon's system. [Money Control]

Additionally, earlier this month, Modi attended the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok. At the forum, he met Russian President Putin who remarked upon the importance of using national currencies for mutual settlements. “We consider the introduction of the practice of using national currencies in our settlements to be a key component of the work with our Indian partners, as well as ensuring smooth interbank transactions, which would help India join the Bank of Russia financial message transfer system,” he said. [Russia Today]

India opens cross-border pipeline with Nepal

(jk) The leaders of India, PM Modi, and Nepal, PM KP Oli, have officially opened the first cross-country oil pipeline, allowing Nepal to receive direct oil-supplies from India without relying on trucks passing through often narrow border areas.

Nepal is heavily reliant on oil supplies from India and over recent years, protests and other disturbances at the Nepali-India border have often led to shortages in energy supplies. 

India-Nepal ties are recovering after Oli’s first term in which India-Nepal ties had reached a  low point when Modi pressured for the interests of Indian-origin Madhesi in the country,  allegedly supporting a blockade to put pressure on Kathmandu to make specific changes to its constitution. The blockade created widespread suffering in Nepal, which had also just suffered a major earthquake, and caused many anti-Indian sentiments. [Live Mint]

Sri Lanka's Hambantota Port links up with Ranong Port in Thailand

(jk) The Hambantota International Port of Sri Lanka has signed an agreement for port-to-port cooperation with the Ranong Port in Thailand, in order to build synergies under the framework of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). [MenaFN]

Beijing hosts Balochistan leaders to gain support for CPEC

(jk) Earlier this month, China invited a delegation of political and tribal leaders from Balochistan to China. Beijing is looking to promote its infrastructure push in the region after it has experienced significant blow-back as regularly documented in previous issues of Asia in Review. After the visit, it was reported by pro-China outlets that the Balochistan leaders had vowed to protect CPEC in their region, but only time will tell if there is anything substantial to this unlikely claim. [Nikkei Asian Review]

South China Sea: New arrangements between Philippines/Malaysia and China

(ls) Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said his that Xi Jinping has offered Manila a controlling stake in a joint energy venture in the South China Sea if it sets aside the 2016 international arbitral award by the Permanent Court of Arbitration which did not recognize the Chinese claims. Under this condition, China would agree to be the junior partner in a joint venture to develop gas deposits at the Reed Bank, located within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Philippine Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin said that a preliminary agreement between China and the Philippines would avoid stating which country was entitled to the gas. [Reuters 1]

If the arrangement is realized, the decision will also be of relevance for Malaysia and Vietnam, who are in similar disputes with China over the extension of their EEZs. Malaysia, for its part, has agreed to set up a joint dialogue mechanism with China for the disputed parts of the South China Sea. In July, China and Malaysia already resumed construction on a train project in northern Malaysia, which is part of China’s Belt and Road plan. [Reuters 2]

Malaysia and Turkey aim to boost bilateral trade to US$5b over next five years

(td) Malaysia and Turkey are working on widening the trade relationship in areas such as defense, technology, food and services, as well as electronics, with the aim of boosting bilateral trade to US$5 billion in the next five years from the current US$2.38 billion. Turkey also plans to look into barter trade with Malaysia to help reduce its palm oil inventory and also through the purchase of other commodities. [Malay Mail]

Cambodia and Laos agree to demarcate their border

(ls) The leaders of Cambodia and Laos agreed to step up efforts to complete the demarcation of their border, where disputes have led to armed confrontations in recent years. Currently, 86 per cent of the border has been marked. Cambodia and Laos reportedly dispatched troops to the border region last month in a stand-off over the disputed boundary. There was a similar confrontation in August 2017 when Laos objected to Cambodia’s construction of a road in disputed territory. [Straits Times]

Background Reading

Ongoing controversy over National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Assam 

(jk) The controversy over the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in India's northeast state of Assam remains. Even after final numbers have been released, the problems with the exercise are far from over [AiR, 36, September 1]. According to this author, "the goal of the massive exercise which involved some 50,000 persons, lasting some seven years and costing close to 1.5 billion rupees (about $220 million) was to scour the land for non-Indians, for the most part Bangladeshis who had come over quietly, informally and settled ubiquitously", but none of it has been achieved. Instead,  no one, including the groups that called for the register will be satisfied with this outcome as the majority of the nearly 2 million off the list do not appear to be Muslim, but Bengali Hindus. [Al Jazeera]

India and its neighbourhood policy to counter the BRI 

(jk) Modi's "Neighborhood First" policy is India’s attempt to counter China’s Belt and Road plan and keep New Dehli’s regional influence strong, argues Stratfor in [The National Interest]

We would greatly appreciate your feedback! Please send any feedback you have regarding this newsletter to: info@cpg-online.de 

Also, don't forget to Like CPG on Facebook, and browse our website for other updates and news!