The monthly nonfarm payrolls report, from the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, is due at 8:30 a.m. ET. The U.S. likely added 110,000 jobs in June, according to economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

That would mark a slight slowdown from May, when 139,000 positions were added.

The unemployment rate is seen rising slightly to 4.3%, up from 4.2% a month earlier.

American employers shed 33,000 staff last month, an ADP report showed, in an unexpectedly weak readout on U.S. labor-market health. The ADP data undershot consensus expectations for job growth of 100,0000 positions.

Please note: The Central Banking newsletter won't be published Friday in observance of Independence Day in the U.S. We will be back Monday.

The U.S. has been adding jobs at a respectable clip, though the pace has been slowing. Economists expect that the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report on Thursday will show that the economy added 110,000 jobs in June.

But the line between slow and no growth could be closer than it looks: Evidence is mounting that the headline jobs number could be overstated and that the pace of job growth has been significantly slower than what the monthly jobs employment report has shown.

American employers shed 33,000 staff last month, a new report showed, in an unexpectedly weak readout on U.S. labor-market health.

The ADP data undershot consensus expectations for job growth of 100,0000 positions in June, according to economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

It was the first pullback since March 2023.

Sterling and U.K. government bonds, or gilts, recovered Thursday after Prime Minister Keir Starmer backed Treasury chief Rachel Reeves, having initially sidestepped questions about her future in parliament on Wednesday.

Starmer refused to confirm Reeves would remain in her post during the Prime Minister’s Questions Wednesday, following a rebellion within his Labour Party over welfare reforms. This caused sterling and gilts to sell off sharply. A new welfare bill passed in a parliamentary vote Tuesday but only after the government made major concessions.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies warned the bill would no longer deliver cost savings of 5 billion pounds ($6.8 billion) a year by 2030 and said tax rises looked increasingly likely ahead of the autumn budget.

“The looming prospect of tax hikes has the potential to act as a dampener on growth in the U.K. if businesses and households curtail spending in anticipation of measures set to be announced in the autumn,” MUFG Bank senior currency analyst Lee Hardman said in a note.

The U-turn on the welfare reforms also casts doubts over the future of Reeves.

While the prime minister later said Reeves had his full backing, the damage has already been done, Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke said.

“The market can no longer be sure that budgetary discipline will really be maintained in the U.K.”

A private gauge of China’s services sector activity expanded in June, but at a softer pace despite efforts by businesses to attract new customers.

The Caixin services purchasing managers index edged down to 50.6 from 51.1 in May, hitting the lowest point since September, Caixin Media and S&P Global said Thursday.

That marked the 30th month above the 50-mark separating expansion from contraction.

The U.S. and Vietnam have struck a tariff deal that will see American goods enter the country duty-free, President Trump announced Wednesday.

In return, the U.S. will charge 20% tariffs on Vietnamese goods, Trump said, instead of the 46% tariffs he had announced in April, before putting the duties on pause to allow for negotiations. “It will be a Great Deal of Cooperation between our two Countries,” Trump said in a Truth Social post.

Additionally, goods from other countries that pass through Vietnam on their way to the U.S. will be charged a higher 40% tariff, Trump announced. The U.S. had made addressing so-called transshipment of goods—particularly those originating from China—a priority in its negotiations with Vietnam.

8:30 a.m.: U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
8:30 a.m.: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
8:30 a.m.: U.S. Employment Report
9:30 a.m.: IMF regular press briefing with Strategic Communications Director Julie Kozack
9:45 a.m.: U.S. Services PMI
10 a.m.: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
10 a.m.: ISM Report On Business Services PMI
11 a.m.: Global Services PMI
1 p.m.: U.S. financial markets close early ahead of Independence Day
2 p.m.: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Closed Meeting
4:30 p.m.: Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 p.m.: Federal Discount Window Borrowings

10 a.m.: Employment Trends Index
7 p.m.: President Trump meets Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

The U.S.'s ability to repay its debt remains intact, UBS Global Wealth Management says in a note. It expects the U.S. house to approve President Trump's economic policy agenda, although the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill will add $800 billion more to the national debt than the initial House version over the coming decade, UBS GWM says. "But we think the U.S. remains able to manage its debt," UBS GWM says. The Federal Reserve's credibility, the U.S. dollar's reserve status, deep and liquid Treasury markets, Fed balance sheet holdings, and bank capital regulations could all help finance the deficit, it says. — Emese Bartha

The U.S. Treasury is likely to increase issuance of shorter-term securities while keeping longer-term auctions unchanged, effectively reducing the weighted average maturity over time, Bank of America analysts write. "The market has increasingly focused on Treasury WAM shortening as the path of least resistance for UST," BofA says. "We think this administration may tolerate a larger bill share up to 25%...and/or wait for rates to move lower before growing coupon supply." As a result, BofA expects money market rates to cheapen while the Treasury tests demand from front-end investors. — Paulo Trevisani

Malaysia's central bank may keep its benchmark interest rate at 3% at the July meeting, FSMOne Research assistant manager Kevin Khaw Khai Sheng says in a press briefing. While recent macroeconomic data points to some weakness, he says they aren't having a "very critical" impact on the overall economy yet. If Bank Negara does cut rates next week, it would be more of an "insurance" move, he says. Khaw expects a 25bp rate cut later in 2H, likely during the September or November policy meetings. — Yingxian Wong

• The Bank of Japan should be ready to resume policy tightening if U.S. trade talks progress, policy board member Hajime Takata said, confirming that the bank is still looking to raise interest rates. “I believe that the bank is currently only pausing its policy interest rate hike cycle and should continue to make a gear shift after a certain period of ‘wait-and-see,’” Takata said in a speech to business leaders in Mie prefecture, central Japan.(WSJ)
• The Reserve Bank of Australia could remain sidelined at its policy meeting next week, and choose to wait for second-quarter inflation data at the end of this month and a new economic forecast in August, rather than cut the official cash rate a third time this year. (WSJ)
• Swiss annual inflation picked up in June, but stayed near deflationary levels, maintaining the possibility that the Swiss National Bank might still push rates below zero later this year. Consumer prices were 0.1% higher than the same month of last year, compared with annual inflation of minus 0.1% in May, Switzerland’s statistics office said Thursday. (WSJ)
• Turkey’s annual inflation rate eased a little in June, brushing off some of the inflationary effects of recent geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and reassuring policymakers at the country’s central bank. Consumer prices were 35.05% higher on year in June, slightly down on the 35.41% in May, the country’s statistics authority said Thursday. The cooling trend could reassure policymakers at the Turkish central bank, which held its key rate in May after hiking it in April. Annual inflation has fallen from the 71.6% of June last year, when it was near recent highs.(WSJ)
• JPMorgan Chase boosted its quarterly dividend and authorized a new $50 billion share repurchase program. (WSJ)

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by news associate Roshan Fernandez in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to roshan.fernandez@wsj.com.