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July 1, 2021 - Brief Issue 223
The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.
The Coronavirus Daily Brief will be on hiatus July 5 and 6.
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Top Headlines
Moderna: Vaccine Works Against Delta Variant (Health & Science)
CDC Reaffirms Vaccines Not Required for Vaccinated People; WHO Continues to Encourage Masking Globally; Los Angeles County Encourages Everyone to Wear Masks Indoors Amid Delta Variant Worries (Health & Science)
U.S. Faces Medical Supplies Shortage (Health & Science)
Covid-19 Killing Brazilian Children at Alarming Rates (Around the World)
North Korean Leader Chastises Officials for “Crucial” Lapse in Virus Response (Around the World)
Putin Promotes Vaccinations (Around the World)
Virtual Care Finds Bipartisan Support in a Divided Congress (U.S. Government & Politics)
Federal Reserve Shows Divides on Risk of Inflation After Prolonged Period of Unity; General Mills Warns of Inflation (U.S. Economy)
Expect July 4th Crowds as Travel Resurges (U.S. Society)
Health & Science
There have been 33,664,949 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 604,714 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 326,521,526 vaccine doses, with 54.4% of Americans having received their first vaccine dose and 46.7% fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 182,207,431 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 3,947,099 deaths.
Moderna: Vaccine Works Against Delta Variant
On Tuesday, Moderna announced that its vaccine works against the delta variant (WaPo). Moderna said that in blood samples from fully vaccinated people it found only a “modest reduction in neutralizing titers” against the delta variant. The data is available as a preprint and has not yet received peer review. The announcement comes as the variant continues to spread among unvaccinated populations globally. Bonus Read: “Coronavirus vaccines are widely available in the U.S. So why are scientists working on new ones?” (WaPo).
CDC Reaffirms Vaccines Not Required for Vaccinated People; WHO Continues to Encourage Masking Globally; Los Angeles County Encourages Everyone to Wear Masks Indoors Amid Delta Variant Worries
On Wednesday CDC Director Rochelle Walensky reaffirmed the CDC’s guidance that fully vaccinated people do not need to mask in most situations (NYT). The World Health Organization, however, continues to encourage masking. Walensky, speaking to NBC’s “Today,” emphasized that the difference is largely a result of the organizations' different remits and the greater level of vaccination in the U.S., stating, “The W.H.O. really does have to make recommendations for an entire world.” She added, “Those masking policies are not to protect the vaccinated — they are to protect the unvaccinated.”
Meanwhile, amid concern over the delta variant, Los Angeles county encouraged everyone including those already vaccinated to wear masks indoors, as we covered in yesterday’s brief (WaPo, NYT). In a statement, the county stated, “With increase circulation of the highly transmissible delta variant, the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (Public Health) strongly recommends everyone, regardless of vaccination status, wear masks indoors in public places as a precautionary measure.” Barbara Ferrer, public health director for the county, stated, “We don’t want to return to lockdown or more disruptive mandates here,” adding, “We want to stay on the path we’re on right now, which is keeping community transmission really low.” The county dropped its mask mandate on June 15. The Washington Post writes, “The high-profile move by the county of 10 million marks an abrupt shift in tone after states and localities have dropped most mask mandates and social distancing requirements in recent weeks. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in mid-May rescinded almost all masking recommendations for fully vaccinated people.” According to county health officials, 123 people were infected with the Delta variant between June 4 and 8. Dr. Ferrer emphasized, “Fully vaccinated people are well protected against serious illness and disease caused by variants of concern including the Delta variant.” Even so, county officials are concerned by reports of some fully vaccinated people being infected with the variant in Israel, and Los Angeles County Health Officer Muntu Davis told the Post, “We want to make sure we understand that people who are fully vaccinated aren’t getting infected in large portions or small portions in a way that allows them to unknowingly transmit to others.”
U.S. Faces Medical Supplies Shortage
Amid rising concerns over the delta variant, Politico reports that it obtained internal Department of Health and Human Services data that shows the United States may face a medical supplies shortage (Politico). Politico reports, “Supplies of critical medical products in the Strategic National Stockpile are still well below federal targets more than 18 months after the coronavirus first emerged in the United States, according to internal data obtained by POLITICO,” adding, “Data from the Department of Health and Human Services show the stockpile targets include 265 million gowns, 400 million surgical face masks and 4.5 billion gloves. But the current inventory includes only 17.5 million gowns, 273 million surgical masks and 525 million gloves, according to an HHS spokesperson. That’s anywhere from 6.6 to 68 percent of the recommended stock, depending on the item.” Meanwhile, the U.S. has been falling short of its aims for sending supplies abroad as well. Politico reports, “The U.S. has only been able to fill a fraction of the requests it has received for the gas and the materials needed to administer it, recently shipping out 1,500 oxygen cylinders and other components to India and 1,000 cylinders to Nepal. Nepal had originally requested close to 20,000 cylinders, a senior U.S. official with knowledge of the matter said.” The shortages come even as the U.S. expanded its stockpile of some materials. According to Politico, “There are more than 35 times more N95 respirators and 10 times more ventilators available now than at the start of the pandemic.”
Around the World
Covid-19 Killing Brazilian Children at Alarming Rates
The number of children dying in Brazil from Covid-19 is much higher than in other countries, according to a report from global health organization Vital Strategies (CNN). The Brazilian Health Ministry says that 1,122 children under the age of 10 have died from Covid-19 since the pandemic started, but health experts agree that that number is probably an undercount. Vital Strategies, which works in more than 70 countries around the world, compared the number of Brazilian child deaths in 2018 and 2019 with the number of deaths since the pandemic began. They found an excess of 2,975 deaths. "What we see in Brazil is that the number of kids dying with Covid specified as the cause of death is higher than what we are seeing in other countries of the world -- it's 10 times higher," Dr. Ana Luiza Bierrenbach, an epidemiologist at Vital Strategies, told CNN. In comparison, in the U.S, the only country with a higher overall official death toll than Brazil’s, there have been 382 Americans under the age of 18 that have died, according to the CDC.
North Korean Leader Chastises Officials for “Crucial” Lapse in Virus Response
North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, said that top officials’ failures in coronavirus prevention caused a “great crisis” in the country, state media reported on Wednesday. The strong language raised the specter of a mass outbreak in the country that so far, has claimed to have no coronavirus infections, though experts seriously doubt that claim (AP). Kim said “senior officials in charge of important state affairs neglected the implementation of the important decisions of the party on taking organizational, institutional, material, scientific and technological measures as required by the prolonged state emergency epidemic prevention campaign,” according to KCNA. This “caused a crucial case of creating a great crisis in ensuring the security of the state and safety of the people and entailed grave consequences.”
Putin Promotes Vaccinations
In the latest instance of a change in tone about the pandemic from Russian officials, on Wednesday President Vladimir V. Putin urged Russians to get vaccinated against the coronavirus in his most extensive comments on the matter yet. His country is scrambling to contain a new wave of the virus as only about 15% of the population have received at least one vaccine dose. According to the New York Times, “polls this year by the independent Levada Center showed that some 60 percent of Russians did not want to be vaccinated, even though the domestically produced Sputnik V vaccine is widely seen as safe and effective.” Putin spent the opening half hour of his annual call-in show trying to convince Russians to get one of the country’s four domestically produced shots. “It’s dangerous, dangerous to your life,” Mr. Putin said of Covid-19. “The vaccine is not dangerous.” Putin said that he had received the Sputnik V vaccine this year; he had previously declined to specify which vaccine he had received. Moscow and St. Petersburg have been reporting more than 100 deaths per day as the national number of new cases has more than doubled to 20,000 in recent weeks. Official numbers are likely to be an undercount.
U.S. Government & Politics
Virtual Care Finds Bipartisan Support in a Divided Congress
As Congress debates what Medicare should cover after a year of pandemic, a Senate proposal to permanently establish rules allowing for coverage virtual appointments promulgated by the Trump administration is finding bipartisan support (Politico). Senator Brian Schatz (D-HI) stated, “We've gone from the point where if I talked about telehealth to someone their eyes would start to glaze over,” adding, “Now when I start to talk about telehealth, their head nods vigorously up and down.” Schatz’ proposal has drawn 59 co-sponsors including 30 Republicans. However, Politico notes, “skeptics warn a rapid expansion of telehealth could trigger a surge of new health spending.” Regarding what the bill would do, Politico writes, “The Schatz plan would end all location-based restrictions on telehealth for Medicare recipients, allow patients to originate care from home and let rural health clinics and health centers that provide care in underserved areas to use telehealth permanently. Before the pandemic, Medicare only covered telehealth in certain rural areas and required patients to travel to eligible health care facilities to access telehealth services. It would also allow the Secretary of Health and Human Services to lift telehealth restrictions permanently and mandate a study on telehealth usage during the Covid-19 pandemic.” More widely, telehealth is popular among the American public and more than half of American states have loosened restrictions on its practice.
FEMA Changes Rule on Covid Funeral Aid, Allowing Reimbursement Without Covid Named on the Death Certificate
On Tuesday, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) changed its policy on Covid-related funeral aid to allow reimbursement when a death certificate does not specifically name Covid as the cause of death (Politico). Politico writes, “FEMA said Tuesday that people whose family member died between Jan. 20 and May 16, 2020, can apply for aid if they submit a signed letter from a coroner, medical examiner or official who certified their relative’s death certificate that links the death to Covid-19.” The change follows expressions of concern from families of those who died earlier in the pandemic before testing was widely available. Politico writes, “FEMA altered its application requirements after months of talks with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) about how to make it easier for people to apply.”
Watchdog: IRS Faces 35 Million+ Tax Return Backlog
In a report released on Wednesday, a government watchdog reports that the IRS has a backlog of more than 35 million unprocessed tax returns (WaPo). The backlog was exacerbated by the pandemic and complications related to the various relief and stimulus efforts over the past year. Erin Collins, the National Taxpayer Advocate, wrote in the report that about 17 million paper tax returns have not yet been processed, 16 million more returns have been held for further manual review, and 2.7 million returns remain to be processed because they were amended. The backlog is four times larger than it was in 2019 when there were 7.4 million unprocessed returns; in filing year 2020, there were about 11 million unprocessed returns. The Post writes, “As a result of the backlog, millions of taxpayers have to wait much longer for their tax refunds. In the current filing season, 70 percent of individual income tax returns included refunds, with the average refund amounting to about $2,800. Refunds are also important for delivering tax credits to low-income Americans, while some other taxpayers need their returns to be processed to proceed with things such as mortgage applications.”
U.S. Economy
Federal Reserve Shows Divides on Risk of Inflation After Prolonged Period of Unity; General Mills Warns of Inflation
The Federal Reserve, which showed substantial unity ovr the past pandemic year on questions of economic policy, is now showing signs of growing debate and division over the extent to which inflation is a risk, the New York Times reports (NYT). The Times writes, “The Fed’s top officials, including Chair Jerome H. Powell, acknowledge that a lasting period of uncomfortably high inflation is a possibility. But they have said it is more likely that recent price increases, which have come as the economy reopens from its coronavirus slumber, will fade. Other officials, like James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, have voiced more pointed concern that the pickup in prices might persist and have suggested that the Fed may need to slow its support for the economy more quickly as a result.” Robert S. Kaplan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, commented, “I see the debate and disagreement as the Fed at its best,” adding, “In a situation this complex and this dynamic, if I weren’t seeing debate and disagreement, and there were unanimity, it would make me nervous.” The debate itself may also serve as a signal to investors watching the inflation issue that the Fed is keeping an eye on it and will not maintain its current policy in perpetuity.
Meanwhile, General Mills is raising prices for most of its groceries, and warning of inflation (WSJ). The company says it is facing the highest prices for materials in a decade with costs 7 percent higher than they were last year, according to its executives. General Mills Chief Executive Jeff Harmening told the Wall Street Journal, “Consumers see costs going up all around them, not just at the grocery store, but with automobiles, at restaurants,” adding, “No one wants to increase prices, but we’ve had to.” Other packaged food companies are also increasing prices including Campbells Soup and J.M. Smucker. General Mills says it is also making internal cuts to account for its increased costs. Bonus Read: “Your Next Round of Drinks Might Be More Expensive,” (WSJ).
Ford to Idle and Reduce Production Due to Supply Issues
Ford Motor Company announced on Wednesday that it will be reducing production and in some case idling work at more than a half dozen plants in the United States as a result of issues with the supply of computer chips (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “Ford said Wednesday that its pickup truck factories in Michigan, Kentucky and Missouri will reduce or stop production for much of July, while an Explorer plant in Chicago will be idled for the entire month. Production of several other popular models also will be reduced or scrapped, including the Escape SUV and Mustang sports car. The Chicago plant and the factories that assemble the pickup trucks—Ford’s biggest moneymaker—had cut production earlier this spring because of the chip shortage but had been back to full tilt in recent weeks, a spokeswoman said.” Computer chips are one among a variety of materials that have seen supply disruptions and shortages during the pandemic, as we have covered in prior briefs. Ford, and other auto company executives, say they foresee the shortage improving in the third quarter.
Bonus Read: “Jobs Are Hard to Fill, and Ideology Makes It Hard to Understand Why,” (WSJ).
U.S. Society
Expect July 4th Crowds as Travel Resurges
As people increasingly look to travel over the summer - with the pandemic waning - July 4th crowds this year will likely surpass anything since the pandemic, reports the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The Journal writes, “With 46% of Americans fully vaccinated, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and mask mandates lifting in theme parks and cities nationwide, the travel industry expects a frenzy from now through Labor Day weekend. AAA forecasts that some 47 million people are expected to travel from July 1 to 5. This weekend is expected to have the highest auto-travel volume on record, surpassing 2019 levels. Pent-up demand among travelers has caused shortages and price spikes. Daily rates for rental cars are currently at $166, about a 140% increase from 2019 prices, according to the automobile association. Some will be out of luck because of a surge in demand for road travel continuing from last year and chip shortages causing supply problems at car-rental companies.” Meanwhile gas prices are expected to be above $3 a gallon, hitting its highest point since 2014. The Federal Aviation Administration expects to see the number of travelers surpass the number who traveled by air on June 24th, when there were more than 47,000 flights booked at what was the peak of travel since the pandemic. The Journal also notes, “U.S. airports have been averaging around two million passengers a day in the past month—still down from 2019 levels but higher in recent months, according to Airport Council International-North America." The Transportation Security Administration said it expects the number of travelers at airports to increase by Wednesday or Thursday.
Analysis & Arguments
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