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April 14, 2021 - Brief Issue 182

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

FDA, CDC Recommend Pause in J&J Vaccinations (Health & Science)

New Mexico Leads U.S. Vaccination Efforts (Health & Science)

Variants Have Taken Over New York City, According to City Report (Health & Science)

According to U.S. Study, Antibody Treatments May be a Powerful Preventative Measure for Covid-19 (Health & Science)

British Study Finds U.K. Variant Not Linked to Worse Covid-19 Outcomes in Hospitalized Patients (Health & Science)

South Africa Pauses J&J Shots, European Rollout Delayed (Around the World)

Sweden Has Highest New Cases Per Person in Europe (Around the World)

Second Ramadan of Pandemic Begins (Around the World)

India’s Virus Surge Affects World Vaccine Supply (Around the World)

Inflation Accelerated in March (U.S. Economy)

Fake Covid-19 Certificates Challenge Airlines (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 31,346,923 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 563,449 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 410,410,902 tests and distributed 245,364,805 vaccine doses, with 36.8% of Americans having received their first vaccine dose and 22.7% fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 137,515,918 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 2,961,469 deaths. At least 78,353,377 people have recovered from the virus.

U.S. FDA, CDC Recommend Pause in J&J Vaccinations

On Tuesday, the Food and Drug Administration and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended an immediate pause in use of Johnson & Johnsons (J&J) single-shot coronavirus vaccine, out of what the FDA called “an abundance of caution” over a rare blood clotting side effect (WSJ, Politico, NPR, CNN, WaPo, NYT). Out of over 6.8 million J&J doses administered in the U.S., there have been six reported instances of low platelet counts and cerebral venous sinus thrombosis, a type of serious blood clot, all in women 18-48 years old. One of these patients died and another is in critical condition. FDA vaccine regulator Peter Marks noted similarities between this and the rare blood clotting associated with the AstraZeneca shot, which, like J&J, uses adenovirus vectors to introduce SARS-CoV-2 to the immune system. Moderna and Pfizer use mRNA technology. 

Federal vaccination sites, as well as the U.S. military and several states or districts – including D.C., Virginia, and Maryland – have paused use of the J&J shot in response to federal officials’ recommendation (WaPo). White House Covid-19 response coordinator Jeff Zients said this is unlikely to have a major impact on the country’s vaccine rollout, as J&J shots have made up less than 5% of administered doses so far. The CDC will meet Wednesday to review the data, and the FDA will review that analysis and conduct its own investigation, before health officials issue further guidance. In the meantime, states are trying to redistribute Pfizer and Moderna shots to vaccination sites that had scheduled J&J appointments. Johnson & Johnson is also pausing use of its vaccine in Europe as it investigates blood clotting with European health officials. Australia announced that it had cancelled its plans to order doses of the vaccine over concerns about the rare side effect (WaPo).  

Health officials emphasize the unlikelihood of blood clotting side effects. “I’d like to stress these events appear to be extremely rare,” said Janet Woodcock, acting commissioner of the FDA. “However, Covid-19 vaccine safety is a top priority for the federal government, and we take all reports of adverse events following vaccination very seriously.”

Chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said the delay in J&J rollout would likely happen on the scale of days to weeks, not weeks to months. He clarified that the pause recommended by the FDA and CDC was a proactive move and “a strong argument for safety,” not an indication “that we pulled the trigger too soon” on vaccines (Fox). Fauci also said the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, of which the U.S. has administered tens of millions of doses, had presented “no red flags.” 

New Mexico Leads U.S. Vaccination Efforts

New Mexico recently became the first state to at least partially vaccinate half of its adult population, with 38% fully vaccinated, the highest of any state (Politico). The state’s racial equity when it comes to vaccine distribution is also above par, according to data from the Kaiser Family Foundation. This performance surprises some experts, who note New Mexico’s high poverty rate, historically poor health care, and initial challenges with Covid-19. But the state’s consolidated healthcare system – there are just two major healthcare networks in New Mexico – and its single, centralized vaccination website allowed it to streamline vaccine distribution. Health officials have also suggested that New Mexico’s difficulties with medical care in the past primed the state to reach underserved populations. 

Variants Have Taken Over New York City, According to City Report

New York City released a report Monday showing a breakdown of Covid-19 cases by zip code, making it clear that viral variants – specifically B.1.1.7, from the U.K, and B.1.526, from NYC itself – are rampant in the area (NYT). B.1.1.7 is dominant in the U.S., but in NYC, one of the nation’s Covid-19 hotspots, the homegrown variant has eclipsed all other strains. B.1.526 accounted for 45% of cases from the end of March and has been detected in all five boroughs. Both of these variants are known to be more contagious than older forms of the virus, although the specific differences between the U.K. and NYC variants are unknown as of yet. “We don’t have enough information to discern this at this moment,” said NYC health commissioner Dr. Dave Chokshi.

Michigan Asks White House to Reconsider its Vaccine Allotments

As Michigan’s coronavirus case numbers soar – the state is home to nine of the ten metropolitan areas across the country with the most new reported cases – Governor Gretchen Whitmer continues to ask the Biden administration for a greater allotment of coronavirus vaccines (NYT). While the White House has pledged to help Michigan increase testing and smooth out its vaccine distribution, administrators maintain that the best system for vaccine rollout is to allocate doses based on population, not need. Whitmer said the White House should reconsider this approach, noting that she would continue to push for more doses. “When there’s a surge, we think that it’s important to rush in to meet where that need is,” Whitmer said. “Because what’s happening in Michigan today could be what’s happening in other states tomorrow, and so it’s on all of us to recognize that if we can squash where we’re seeing hot spots, it’s in everyone’s best interest.” Facing political pressure, Whitmer has not tightened restrictions, but has called for a voluntary two-week suspension of in-person school and indoor dining. 

According to Study, Antibody Treatments May be a Powerful Preventative Measure for Covid-19

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals announced Monday that its monoclonal antibody drug, REGEN-COV, is highly effective in preventing Covid-19 among people who live in close contact with an infected patient (STAT, NYT). Researchers injected 1,500 volunteers, all of whom lived with a recently infected person, with either a single dose of the antibody treatment or a placebo. In the span of a month, the treatment reduced patients’ risk of developing Covid-19 by 81% compared to the placebo. And, among 204 patients who had already tested positive for Covid-19 at the start of treatment, REGEN-COV reduced the risk of serious illness by 31%. About a third of the patients in the study were deemed high-risk for complications from the virus. This is the first study of monoclonal antibodies showing that they can be effectively administered in a subcutaneous shot rather than an IV. 

Regeneron plans to ask the FDA to expand the emergency authorization of REGEN-COV from high-risk, non hospitalized people to an even wider population, so that the drug can be used preventatively. While vaccination numbers are on the rise, experts believe antibody treatments could provide an alternative for people who won’t or can’t get vaccinated. “Not everyone’s going to take a vaccine, no matter what we do, and not everyone’s going to respond to a vaccine,” said Dr. Myron Cohen of the University of North Carolina. 

Study Finds U.K. Variant Not Linked to Worse Covid-19 Outcomes in Hospitalized Patients

New research published in The Lancet indicates that the B.1.1.7 variant, which originated in the U.K., is more contagious than older coronavirus variants, but not responsible for more severe symptoms or a higher death rate (NPR). Researchers sequenced samples from 341 Covid-19 patients hospitalized at two sites in England in late 2020; 58% of these patients were infected with B.1.1.7, the rest with a different strain. Patients with the more contagious variant were not deemed significantly worse off, in terms of symptoms, than the others. These patients did, however, have higher loads of the virus in their systems. 

Bonus Read: “Trying to Assess COVID’s Impact on Arab-American Communities is Complicated,” (NPR).

Around the World

South Africa Pauses J&J Shots, European Rollout Delayed

South Africa suspended the use of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine shots on Tuesday as a “precautionary measure” and the pharmaceutical company delayed its European vaccine rollout following the U.S. FDA’s recommendation for an immediate pause in the single-shot coronavirus vaccine over a rare blood clotting side effect, as we detailed above. South Africa has administered more than 289,000 doses of the J&J vaccine, most to the country’s healthcare workers, without any reports of the rare blood clots, Health Minister Dr. Zweli Mkhize told reporters (AP).  Mkhize said “in the unlikely event” that the J&J vaccines are permanently halted, South Africa would continue with its vaccination campaign in May using doses from Pfizer-BioNTech. 

Earlier, J&J announced it was delaying the rollout of its coronavirus vaccine across Europe due to the U.S. probe. “We have made the decision to proactively delay the rollout of our vaccine in Europe,” Johnson & Johnson said. The delay is another blow to the slow vaccination campaign of the European Union, which has been dogged by supply shortages and logistical problems as well as concerns over unusual blood clots in a  small number of people who received the AstraZeneca vaccine. According to the AP, “The blood clot reports prompted several countries in the 27-nation bloc to limit the AstraZeneca vaccine to older people. The bloc’s drug regulator, the European Medicines Agency, has authorized the AstraZeneca shot for all people 18 and over.”

Europe Continues to Work Towards Vaccination Passports

With the vaccine rollout in the U.S. going much better than most countries’ in Europe, Americans could soon be ready to travel abroad again. Many countries are eager to host U.S. tourists and the influx of cash they bring to local economies, but the disparities between those who are vaccinated and able to travel and those who are not could become uncomfortable. While the EU has banned Americans from entering the bloc for nonessential reasons because case numbers are too high in the U.S., much of Europe is seeing a third wave of the coronavirus that has shuttered many cities. EU officials are aiming to have a vaccine passport system in place by June that would allow for travel inside the 27-nation bloc. Officials say they plan to publish a proposal within weeks, although ultimately each country will be able to set their own rules. Italy and Greece, both heavily dependent on tourism, want to reopen as soon as possible while Germany and France prefer a more cautious approach. They are also mindful of the optics. “It would not be a good look if British and American tourists are better-treated than Europeans” because of vaccination status, said one E.U. official, speaking to the Washington Post on the condition of anonymity.

Sweden Has Highest New Cases Per Person in Europe

Sweden has reported Europe’s highest number of new coronavirus infections per capita over the past week and now has more patients in intensive care than at any time since the beginning of the pandemic. The country, which opted against strict lockdowns and instead relied on increasing voluntary restrictions, now has a seven-day average of 625 new infections per million people (Guardian). According to the Swedish intensive care registry, 392 people were being treated in the country’s intensive care units on Monday, more than the second-wave peak of 389 in January but still lower than the 558 patients in ICUs in the spring of 2020. The Swedish public had “really changed its behaviour and daily life is, to a very great extent, already very restricted,” according to the health minister, Lena Hallengren. Non-essential shops have remained open, bars and restaurants continue to serve food and alcohol, though they have been told to limit hours and alcohol sales. Hallengren said the government has tried to “secure society’s other important functions. Once this is over, society should be able to continue to function.” The aim was not to affect people’s private lives “overly much,” she said.

Second Ramadan of Pandemic Begins

On Tuesday millions of Muslims around the world began celebrating a second Ramadan of the coronavirus pandemic, some with fewer restrictions than last year. Compared to last year, when many mosques across the Middle East and elsewhere were closed for prayer, some degree of normalcy has returned. In Jerusalem, for example, the Old City and the Aqsa Mosque compound were open to crowds and worshippers (NYT). Restrictions still remain however, in Dubai, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, taraweeh, the optional prayers that worshippers can observe at night, were limited to an hour (Reuters). In many places, authorities required mosques to enforce social distancing and told worshipers to bring their own prayer rugs and wear face masks. 

India’s Virus Surge Affects World Vaccine Supply

Across India, major cities are in crisis as daily new infections hit record highs and India has been forced to turn its vaccine production to domestic demands, delaying deliveries to COVAX and elsewhere, including the U.K. and Canada (AP). On Tuesday, India said it would authorize a number of new vaccines, but experts say that decision is unlikely to have any immediate impact on the supplies available in the country. Infections in India plummeted in September and many abandoned masks and social distancing, causing infections to rise again in February. According to the AP, “Over the past week, India had averaged more than 143,000 cases per day. It has now reported 13.6 million virus cases since the pandemic began — pushing its toll past Brazil’s and making it second only to the United States’, though both countries have much smaller populations. Deaths are also rising and have crossed the 170,000 mark. Even those figures, experts say, are likely an undercount.” India has been averaging 3.6 million vaccinations per day, overtaking the U.S. in the number of shots per day, but it has four times the number of people compared to the U.S. and has vaccinated just 7% of its population so far.

U.S. Government & Politics

Democrats Face Challenges as They Sell Broadly Popular Relief Bill to Constituents

Despite the broad popularity of the Covid relief and stimulus bill, Democratic lawmakers still face challenges as they attempt to sell the bill to their constituents, Politico reports (Politico). Politico summarizes some of the challenges writing, “Sometimes the conundrum is mostly logistical: Several of the Biden aid package's most significant provisions, such as an expansion in the Child Tax Credit, are the hardest to explain to constituents. Other benefits in the massive bill haven't arrived yet, and many Pennsylvanians seemed more focused on the spotty vaccine rollout or the governor’s tight Covid restrictions.” Chrissy Houlahan (D-PA-6), one of the representatives currently on the trail selling the package to constituents told Politico, “There’s this narrative of, ‘Oh, this isn’t Covid relief’, or ‘Some small part of it went to the disease.’ Fair enough.” She added, “But the consequences of this pandemic have just been so expansive, that the response to it has to be, too.” Even with the challenges many Democrats are optimistic that the bill’s popularity and lack of GOP support will buoy their chances in midterms that tend to not favor the party in power.

U.S. Economy

Inflation Accelerated in March

Inflation accelerated in March, according to data released by the Department of Labor on Tuesday (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “U.S. consumer prices rose sharply in March as the economic recovery gained momentum, marking the start of an expected monthslong pickup in inflation pressures.” The Journal adds, “The so-called core CPI, which excludes the often-volatile categories of food and energy, climbed 1.6% over the prior year, and was up 0.3% in March from February. The CPI increased more sharply in March than in February, when it rose 1.7% on an annual basis and 0.4% from a month earlier. Core CPI that month was up 1.3% over the previous year, and 0.1% versus January.” Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities, told the Journal, “One of the major things we’re seeing that marks a big change from recent years is that really for the first time in a decade you have a wide range of businesses with pricing power right now—we’re seeing that across the goods sector and the services sector.” The Journal writes, “The Fed expects inflation to rise temporarily this year because of growing demand fueled by increased vaccination rates, falling restrictions on businesses, trillions of dollars in federal pandemic relief programs and ample consumer savings,” but notes that the Federal Reserve expects the acceleration to pass.

Coronavirus Relief Slow to Reach Landlords and Tenants

Despite the federal allocation of $25 billion in rental relief, the aid has been slow to reach landlords and tenants, the Wall Street Journal reports (WSJ). Part of the issue is that many localities are not used to distributing relief on this scale. For example, the Journal reports, “Before the pandemic, Orange County, Calif., spent less than $1 million a year on rental assistance for tenants at risk of eviction. Now, it has to distribute more than $60 million in federal aid to thousands of residents behind on rent because of coronavirus-related hardships.” “We were so overwhelmed. We’re a small agency to begin with” Brett McPherson, spokesman for Colorado’s Department of Local Affairs, where, the Journal writes,“more than 40,000 applications for rental assistance have come in since the beginning of the pandemic, and the state has a backlog of about 7,200 it hasn’t started to review.”

U.S. Society

Bonus Read: “‘Race Against Time’: Pandemic Propels Fight to Save Native American Languages,” (Politico).

Fake Covid-19 Certificates Challenge Airlines

Requirements that travelers provide evidence they do not have coronavirus combined with governmental decisions that require airlines to police the issue have resulted in airlines being challenged by proliferation of false Covid credentials (WSJ). The issue is most acute with regards to international flights, as the Wall Street Journal notes that most domestic flights do not require certificates of health. The Journal writes, “Airlines are battling a scourge of passengers traveling with falsified Covid-19 health certificates. The documents are often the Covid-19 test results required by many countries on arrival. The International Air Transport Association industry body says it has tracked fake certificates in multiple countries, from France to Brazil, Bangladesh and Afghanistan. Border control authorities and police forces have also reported arrests of people selling documents in the U.K., Spain, Indonesia and Zimbabwe, among others.” In response to the issue, the airline industry has turned to pushing for digital certificates.

Americans Now Have Too Much Toilet Paper; Sales Plummet

Sales of toilet paper are plummeting as Americans now have too much on hand, the Wall Street Journal reports (WSJ). The Journal writes, “After a year in which toilet-tissue shortages left consumers scrambling for squares, sales are plummeting to below pre-pandemic levels. Bath-tissue sales in January fell more than 4% from the same period a year earlier, before the spread of Covid-19 spurred Americans to load up on staples from toilet paper to sanitary wipes, according to figures from NielsenIQ. The decline, which comes even though legions of Americans continue to work and attend school from home, indicates last year’s stockpiling is starting to have an effect on sales.”

Analysis & Arguments

Fritz Hahn provides a guide for pandemic activities in the D.C. area (WaPo).

Eric J. Topol calls for awareness but not fear of new coronavirus variants (NYT).

Eric Scigliano writes on how holding court by Zoom is changing the justice system (Atlantic).

John Washington reports on a win for activists seeking relief for New York’s undocumented workers amid the pandemic (Intercept).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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