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Trump's 'Liberation Day' Tariffs Loom; RBA Keeps Rates on Hold

By Vicky Ge Huang

 

President Trump is due to unveil sweeping tariffs on Wednesday afternoon, but what exactly he will do is unclear. He said late Monday he had settled on a plan, but didn’t reveal what it was. The president could apply a universal tariff, or place varying “reciprocal” rates on individual countries.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the bloc is waiting for announcements on U.S. tariffs, adding that policymakers will assess them carefully to calibrate a response. She said more tariffs would only fuel inflation, “exactly the opposite of what we want to achieve.”

A Bank of England rate setter said Tuesday that higher U.S. tariffs could weaken inflation in the U.K. as businesses in other countries targeted by Trump seek new buyers. 

And the Reserve Bank of Australia left its official cash rate at 4.10% at its latest policy meeting. The decision was in line with market expectations. The RBA's board highlighted the potential for weaker global growth as confidence is sapped by the trade policies of the Trump administration.

 

Top News

Trump Has Settled on ‘Liberation Day’ Tariff Plan, but Doesn’t Reveal It

Photo: Francis Chung/Bloomberg News

President Trump said that he had settled on a plan for his latest batch of tariffs expected this week but didn’t reveal what he had decided, after his economic team struggled to coalesce around a remade U.S. trade strategy.

“I’ve settled, yeah,” Trump said in the Oval Office on Monday evening when asked whether he has decided on his “Liberation Day” plans, a term the president has used for tariffs to be announced by the self-imposed deadline of Wednesday.

  • What to Know About Trump’s Latest Tariff Policy Moves
  • Trump’s Loyal Farmers Stung by His Funding Cuts and Tariffs
  • EU Has ‘Strong Plan’ to Tackle Trump Tariffs, Von der Leyen Says
  • Higher Tariffs Could Weaken U.K. Inflation, BOE’s Greene Says
  • China Says It Is Aiming to Coordinate Tariff Response With Japan, South Korea
 

RBA Keeps Rates on Hold as It Points to Trade War Threat

Photo: Brendon Thorne/Bloomberg News

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting this week, avoiding political entanglements ahead of an election on May 3 while also awaiting further confirmation that inflation is in retreat.

At the conclusion of a two-day policy meeting Tuesday, the RBA’s newly formed monetary policy board also issued a warning about the darkening global growth outlook and the dangers associated with a deteriorating geopolitical environment.

 

U.S. Economy

Inside California's Fair Plan, a System That Lost a Million-Dollar Check

Photo: Coleman Gould

Customers of the state-chartered Fair Plan face problems including canceled policies, refusals to treat toxins from smoke and dire customer service.

Texas Manufacturing Business Declines as Firms' Outlook Weakens

Photo: Adrees Latif/Reuters

Texas business activity in the manufacturing sector contracted again this month, as input costs rose and company outlooks worsened, according to a monthly gauge of business executives.

The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey's index for general business activity fell to minus 16.3 in March, from minus 8.3 in February, a second straight month of contraction and its lowest reading since last July, the Dallas Fed said Monday. (Dow Jones Newswires)

Chicago Business Activity Keeps Improving as Inflation Fears Mount

Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images

The Chicago Business Barometer rose to 47.6 in March from 45.5 in February, against economists' expectations for a downturn in the index. That marks the highest reading since November of 2023, though it still points to overall contraction. (Dow Jones Newswires)

 

Financial Regulation

Former Exec Alleges Deutsche Bank Hid Mishaps From Regulators

Photo: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg News

Deutsche Bank is under fire for problems with its internal controls after a former senior operations manager sued the lender alleging it hid from regulators operational mishaps that led to a $30 million loss in its U.S. arm.

Big Four Auditing Shortfalls Wane in Inspections After Regulator Push

Photo: Richard B. Levine/Zuma Press

The largest U.S. accounting firms had fewer deficiencies in their audits of public companies’ 2023 financial statements compared with the previous two years, the results for which their regulator had called unacceptable.

 

Forward Guidance

Tuesday (all times ET)

9:45 a.m.: US Manufacturing PMI
10 a.m.: ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI
10 a.m.: Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
10 a.m.: Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey

Wednesday

8:15 a.m.: ADP National Employment Report
10 a.m.: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
4: 30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on 'Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policymaking' at The Griswold Center for Economic Policy Students and Julis-Rabinowitz Center for Public Policy and Finance 2025 Public Talk
7 p.m.: U.S. set to impose 'reciprocal' tariffs

 

Research

Ultimate Increase In Effective Tariff Rate Will Be Somewhat Lower, Goldman Sachs Says

Goldman Sachs expects President Trump to announce reciprocal tariffs that average around 15% when weighted by US imports. Goldman expects the tariffs will likely apply to major trading partners who run trade surpluses with the US, but to omit smaller trading partners and those who run deficits. If so, this would exclude around 13% of US imports. Goldman also expects the reciprocal tariff to replace the Canada/Mexico tariffs. Goldman economists also say they assume that some countries will ultimately negotiate lower rates or exclusions, and it seems likely that some industries might win exclusions for particular products. — Adriano Marchese

 

Basis Points

  • The eurozone's annual rate of inflation edged closer to the European Central Bank’s target last month as the currency area’s unemployment rate fell to a fresh record low.
  • German inflation declined notably in March, laying the groundwork for a rate cut from the European Central Bank, despite fears that U.S. tariffs and extra defense spending could lead to an inflationary rebound.
  • U.K. shop prices continued to decline on year in March, although at a slower pace, according to an industry report.
  • Large Japanese manufacturers became less upbeat about their business prospects in the first quarter of the year, a Bank of Japan survey showed Tuesday, reflecting concerns about President Trump’s threat of higher tariffs on U.S. imports.
  • South Korea’s exports grew at a stronger-than-expected pace in March, showing signs of resilience as concerns about U.S. tariffs cast uncertainty over the outlook for trade.
 

About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.

 
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