Good morning. Today, three predictions from one forecaster illuminate the uncertainty facing business.

The WSJ Leadership Institute’s Megan Graham reports for the newsletter on a new advertising forecast that’s really three in one:

Prolonged conflict in the Middle East could threaten nearly $50 billion of global advertising growth this year, according to an updated outlook from advertising research firm WARC.

The firm has actually created three different predictions, designed to reflect unpredictable variables such as how long the closure of the Strait of Hormuz persists.

“It feels a little bit like the forecasts are being built on sand at the moment, because they've been changing by the day,” James McDonald, WARC’s director of data, intelligence and forecasting, told me.

• WARC’s “baseline” scenario predicts global ad market growth of 10.4% this year to $1.32 trillion.
• Its middle case anticipates an 8.8% increase in ad spending which would mean $19 billion less growth than in the baseline.
• And its more pessimistic forecast says growth will top out at 6.2%, leading to $50 billion in lost growth.

Spending growth in areas such as social and retail media are strong enough to drive ad growth despite the war, McDonald said.

But even in the baseline scenario, WARC anticipates travel and transport ad spending will sink by 3.5%.

“An oil shock of this nature acts like a tax on consumers—pushing up prices while eroding real spending power,” McDonald said in the report. “In a more prolonged or severe disruption, we move into stagflation territory, where sectors like travel, automotive, food and consumer electronics take a direct hit from both rising costs and falling demand.”

Related: The economy is on the edge. Here’s what could tip it over, or help it pull through. [WSJ]

Not long after the grandson of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cup inventor H.B. Reese went viral for criticizing the ingredients in some Reese’s products, change is coming.

The Hershey Co., which bought Reese’s in 1963, says it will replace a chocolate compound coating now used in a small portion of its products and resume using “classic milk and dark chocolate recipes” by 2027.

The change affects less than 3% of Reese’s products, Bloomberg reports.

But it might help tamp down criticism from Brad Reese, the opinionated grandson of the Reese’s founder who has been stirring up bad publicity for the company. Reese made headlines in February with a LinkedIn post criticizing Hershey’s “formulation decisions” with some Reese’s products, then turned up the volume by appearing in a video with MrBeast, approvingly sampling the creator’s own Feastables peanut butter cups.

Hershey wants you to know this wasn’t Brad Reese’s doing, though:

More: The maker of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups and Twizzlers also said at its annual investor conference that it wants to speed up its growth in salty and functional snacking categories as well as expand into premium and better-for-you products. [WSJ]

David Protein got a reprieve from the lawsuit that had TikTokers fearing they’d been “Regina Georged.”

Three plaintiffs who sued David earlier this year, alleging that the company’s bars contained more calories and fat than indicated on the label, have voluntarily dismissed their suit without prejudice, according to a court document dated March 30.

The suit became a PR problem for David after some TikTokers noticed it and started comparing themselves to Regina George, a character from the 2004 comedy “Mean Girls” who gets tricked into eating weight-gain bars.

David then answered with some “Mean Girls” references of its own, plus some denser explanations of how it calculates the values on its nutrition label, as Megan Graham reported last week.

It’s unclear what led the plaintiffs to back off at the moment. Their withdrawal is “without prejudice,” meaning they could refile.

Attorneys for the plaintiffs didn’t respond to requests for comment.

The Trump administration can’t end federal funding for public media via an executive order, a federal judge ruled Tuesday, siding with National Public Radio and Public Broadcasting Service in their challenges. [WSJ] 

An activist investor says Snap should wind down its Specs business, not spin it off as planned. [WSJ] 

The latest “Get ready with me” ad campaign stars Sabrina Brier and Malibu’s new white rum. [Modern Retail]

How ad agencies are using vibe coding tools in their own work and for clients. [Ad Age]

Disney’s new AI-trained Olaf robot went viral for freezing up and falling over in front of park visitors. [Futurism]

Why some Disney fans won’t let “Club Penguin” go. [Fast Company]