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May Jobs Growth Puts U.S. on a Strong Hiring Streak

  • The U.S. added 172,000 jobs in May, exceeding expectations and signaling a steady labor market recovery from last fall and winter.
  • Strong hiring and rising inflation led traders to increase bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike by year-end; stocks fell across sectors.
  • The share of long-term unemployed rose to 27.5% in May, while average hourly earnings cooled; S&P 500 companies saw 29% Q1 earnings growth.

 

ECB Expected to Be First Among Peers to Raise Key Rate in Response to Conflict

  • The European Central Bank is set to raise its key interest rate Thursday, the first increase in three years, due to higher energy prices.
  • Economists expect the European Central Bank to raise its key rate twice, taking it to 2.75% from 2%.
  • The eurozone economy contracted in the first quarter, risking recession, while annual inflation rose to 3.2% in May.

Japan Rate-Hike Hopes Intact Despite Growth Miss

  • The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise interest rates this month to mitigate rising costs and accelerating inflation.
  • Japan’s economy grew at an annualized 1.8% in the first quarter, revised down from a preliminary 2.1% estimate.
  • Economists expect higher energy prices and uncertainty to limit consumption and investment, dampening corporate earnings.

German Factory Orders Fell Back in April as Iran War Damps Demand

  • German manufacturing orders fell 3.8% in April, the first decline since January, amid weak demand and uncertainty from the war in Iran.
  • Sharply higher energy costs from the Middle East conflict threaten Germany’s industrial recovery, despite a more-than $1 trillion fiscal stimulus.
  • A senior economist expects the German economy to contract slightly in the second quarter, after eurozone GDP fell 0.2% in the first quarter.

China Auto Sales Stayed Weak in May

  • China’s auto market weakened further in May, with retail passenger car sales falling 22.1% from a year earlier.
  • Rising oil prices dented demand for gasoline-powered cars, helping electric and plug-in hybrids capture a record 62.9% of sales.
  • Chinese automakers expanded overseas, exporting 784,000 vehicles in May; new-energy vehicles accounted for 54% of exports.

The World’s Most Surprising Economic Success Story Is…North Korea

  • North Korea’s economy is flourishing, aided by arms sales and troop deployments to Russia, and supplies and financing from China.
  • Pyongyang has seen significant development, including new services, Chinese electric vehicles, and a construction boom.
  • The economic growth, estimated at 3.7% in 2024, is the fastest in eight years and dims hope for a U.S. nuclear deal.

 

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