Click here to subscribe to the daily brief.

January 7, 2021 - Brief Issue 134

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

Please consider making a donation to support our ongoing analysis of the most important news and headlines surrounding Covid-19.​

Top Headlines

Moderna Vaccine Approved in Europe (Health & Science)

U.S. Covid-19 Cases, Deaths, Higher Than Reported (Health & Science)

WHO Issues Recommendation on Pfizer-BioNTech Dosing (Health & Science)

CDC Reports More Allergic Reactions to Covid-19 Vaccines, But Reactions Still Rare (Health & Science)

Quebec to Enter Lockdown as Cases Surge, Ontario to Decide Soon on Extension of Lockdown (Around the World)

Japan Calls for Limited Emergency Declaration (Around the World)

China Reports Biggest Increase in Cases in Five Months (Around the World)

Israel Fears New Variant, Tightens Lockdown (Around the World)

Europe at a Tipping Point Because of New Variant, Says WHO (Around the World)

Democratic Victories in Georgia May Open Path to $2,000 Stimulus Checks (U.S. Government & Politics)

Top House Ways and Means Committee Republican Tests Positive for Coronavirus (U.S. Government & Politics)

Global Stocks Attract Interest Amid Vaccine Rollouts (U.S. Economy)

Business Schools Using Covid-19 Case Studies (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 21,305,321 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 361,297 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has conducted 257,712,384 tests and distributed 17,288,950 vaccine doses, with 5,306,797 people initiating vaccination (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 87,308,468 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,885,689 deaths. At least 48,861,041 people have recovered from the virus.

Moderna Vaccine Approved in Europe

The European Union on Wednesday approved Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use, more than two weeks after approval in Britain, the U.S. and Canada (NYT, WSJ). The European Medicines Agency, the main medical regulator in the E.U., has faced criticism for its slow vaccine approval process. The Pfizer vaccine was approved late last month, but rollout has been slow, and there are not enough doses to reach everyone.

The agency said that the vaccine should be administered in two doses taken 28 days apart, consistent with manufacturer instructions. Some countries, including Britain, have decided to prioritize getting the first dose out to as many people as possible, even if it means there will not be enough doses to give booster shots. The European Commission, which must weigh in before the Moderna vaccine can be administered in the E.U., is expected to formalize the approval within 24 hours.

U.S. Covid-19 Cases, Deaths, Higher Than Reported

According to a study published Tuesday in the medical journal JAMA Network Open, an estimated 14.3% of the U.S. population had antibodies against Covid-19, indicating that a much higher proportion of the population than previously reported had been infected with the virus (CIDRAP). Researchers analyzed community seroprevalence studies and five national surveys in order to derive national underreporting multipliers. These multipliers were used to estimate that approximately 46,910,006 individuals in the U.S., or 14.3% of the population, had been infected with coronavirus by mid-November – far more than the 10,846,373 reported cases at that time. The study also estimated that about 35% of Covid-19 deaths go unreported, which is consistent with other reports analyzing excess deaths. The authors of the study noted that, although more people than expected have antibodies against Covid-19, the numbers are still far below levels needed for herd immunity.

WHO Issues Recommendation on Pfizer-BioNTech Dosing

The World Health Organization (WHO) vaccine advisory group has recommended that the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine be administered in two doses given 21 to 28 days apart, per manufacturer instructions (CIDRAP). The recommendation comes as some countries contemplate delaying second doses in order to inoculate as many people as possible with at least one dose. The WHO advisory group stipulated that, in countries with vaccine shortages and high transmission rates, an interval of six weeks could be allowed between doses.

Last week, experts in the U.K. recommended distributing the shots 12 weeks apart amid concerns over the highly transmissible B117 coronavirus variant, which prompted renewed lockdown orders in the U.K. earlier this week. Other countries, including the U.S., have said they intend to stick to the manufacturer-recommended dosing guidelines.

CDC Reports More Allergic Reactions to Covid-19 Vaccines, But Reactions Still Rare

In a report published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), scientists report that severe allergic reaction occurs in about 11.1 cases per 1 million vaccine doses (STAT, CNBC). The number is about 10 times higher than that of the flu vaccine, but anaphylaxis is still considered rare. The CDC has not changed its guidelines on who should receive the vaccine, and officials stressed that the risk of the disease far outweighs any risk posed by the vaccine.

The CDC report included 21 cases of anaphylaxis occurring December 14-23 in recipients of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. Since then, eight additional cases have been reported, both in Pfizer and Moderna vaccine recipients. Because the Moderna vaccine was rolled out later than the Pfizer vaccine, it is not yet clear whether allergic reactions are more common in one than the other. Of the 21 people included in the report, 17 of them had a documented history of allergies or allergic reactions. Most of the reactions occurred within 30 minutes of receiving the vaccine. No deaths have been reported due to anaphylaxis. The CDC recommends that all vaccination sites be equipped to handle anaphylaxis cases and that recipients be monitored for 15 minutes if they have no history of allergic reactions and 30 minutes if they do.

Pharmacies to Begin Distributing Covid-19 Vaccines in Effort to Speed Delivery; HHS Secretary Recommends States Open Vaccines to Older Adults and Other Risk Groups

After facing criticism for the slow vaccine rollout, the Trump administration announced Tuesday that it would accelerate its plan to involve local pharmacies in Covid-19 vaccine distribution (Politico). Although the administration had previously planned to involve pharmacies, it had not set a timeline for doing so. Within the next two weeks, several thousand pharmacies around the country will begin to receive and distribute Covid-19 vaccines.

In a news conference on Wednesday, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar advised states to further speed vaccine delivery by opening vaccines up to seniors and other vulnerable populations, even if not all top-priority groups had received a vaccine (CNBC). Azar’s comments echoed previous advice by top experts, including U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams. Azar advised states to continue vaccinating healthcare workers and other top-priority groups, but to open vaccines to other groups if distributors struggle to find enough top-priority individuals to vaccinate. Bonus Read: “Covid-19 Vaccine Rollout at Nursing Homes Encounters Fewer Residents, Reluctant Staff,” (WSJ).

More Than 1,000 Covid-19 Deaths Recorded in Los Angeles County Over Past Week

More than 11,000 Los Angeles County residents have lost their lives to Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic, with over 1,000 of those occurring just last week (CNN, LA Times). Los Angeles County Department of Public Health Director Dr. Barbara Ferrer urged all residents to remain at home and follow public health guidelines. More than 22,000 people in the county were hospitalized with Covid-19 on Tuesday, and Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis said that hospitals are struggling to maintain standards of treatment for all patients. Infections are expected to rise after the holidays, further stressing hospitals that are already experiencing staff shortages and overflowing beds. 

Scientists Concerned That B117 Coronavirus Variant Could Drive Another Wave

Coronavirus variant B117, first identified in England last month, is raising concerns among virologists who believe the strain could cause a dangerous new wave of cases (Science). The variant does not appear to cause more severe disease, but it is estimated to be between 50% and 70% more transmissible. With the variant spreading across the U.K., Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced strict control measures that went into effect earlier this week. Already, the B117 variant has begun to replace other variants in the country and has been identified in many European countries and the United States. Infectious disease expert Dr. Jeremy Farrar said, “one concern is that B117 will now become the dominant global variant with its higher transmission and it will drive another very, very bad wave.” He added, “I think we’re going into an unpredictable phase now.” Some experts are encouraging European countries to start implementing stricter control measures now, when relatively few B117 cases have been identified in those countries, in order to get ahead of potential surges later. Experts in the United States have urged leaders to implement increased genome testing in order to track a potential rise in the more contagious variant (NYT).

Covid-19 Positivity Rates Rise Across United States

The percentage of Covid-19 tests coming back positive has been increasing over the last six weeks, with some states experiencing alarming positivity rates (WSJ). The U.S. seven-day average for positivity was 13.3% on Tuesday. For reference, the World Health Organization recommends a positivity rate below 5% for two weeks as a standard for lifting lockdown measures. In some states, the positivity rate is much higher, with Alabama, Idaho, Iowa, Pennsylvania and South Dakota all recording positivity rates over 40%. According to Johns Hopkins, only Vermont, Hawaii and Washington, D.C. have positivity rates less than or equal to the recommended 5%.

Positivity rates help officials determine whether testing is sufficient to detect a majority of new cases. It can also be an indicator of community spread. Rising positivity rates can indicate an increase in cases, which later translates to an increase in hospitalizations and deaths. Notably, the number of tests being performed has remained steady, indicating that higher positivity rates are not due to a drop in testing.

Bonus Read: “5 Scenarios for Containing the Covid-19 Pandemic and Returning to a ‘New Normal,’” (STAT) 

Around the World

Amid Pandemic, More People Are Facing Hunger

For the world’s poor, the Covid-19 pandemic has had devastating economic impacts. Among those impacts is a food crisis that experts believe will continue to worsen in 2021 (WaPo). Emily Farr, a food security specialist at Oxfam, said that food insecurity was high even at the beginning of 2020 and was exacerbated by lockdowns in urban areas and restrictions that caused some farmers to miss planting cycles. The World Food Program (WFP) expects that 138 million people will require food assistance in the coming year, more than in any other year in the program’s 60-year history. The WFP is also facing severe budget insufficiencies, which could force cuts to critical aid in some areas.

Americas

Quebec to Enter Lockdown as Cases Surge, Ontario to Decide Soon on Extension of Lockdown

Quebec will enter a full lockdown starting on Saturday, becoming the first Canadian province to enact a curfew as coronavirus cases surge (Guardian). The premier, François Legault, said on Wednesday that the pandemic “has been the battle of our lives” but noted that “the battle is not over” as he announced the new restrictions. Residents will not be allowed out of their homes from 8 p.m. until 5 a.m. and all non essential businesses will close until Feb. 8. The province is planning to reopen primary schools on Monday but high school students would study online for an extra week. Quebec announced 2,641 new cases and 47 deaths on Wednesday. Neighboring province Ontario has also seen an increase in cases since Christmas and the premier, Doug Ford, said he would decide whether to extend the province’s lockdown “over the next few days.”

Asia

Japan Calls for Limited Emergency Declaration

On Thursday the Japanese government moved towards declaring a one-month state of emergency in Tokyo and three neighboring prefectures as coronavirus cases surged there (Reuters). The emergency declaration, which will be in place for one month, asks residents to stay home and calls for businesses, including restaurants, entertainment facilities, and department stores to stop serving alcohol by 7 p.m. and close by 8 p.m. The move comes a day after the daily number of new coronavirus cases in Japan topped 6,000 for the first time, fanning concerns hospitals could soon become overwhelmed (Japan Times). Japan previously declared a state of emergency in Tokyo and six other prefectures in early April but it was lifted in steps in May as cases subsided. 

China Reports Biggest Increase in Cases in Five Months

On Thursday, China reported the biggest rise in daily Covid-19 cases in more than five months, mostly driven by the rising infections in Hebei province surrounding the capital Beijing (Reuters). As we covered in yesterday’s brief, Hebei entered “wartime mode” earlier this week and contributed 51 of the total 52 local cases that were reported by the National Health Commission on Thursday. Authorities in Hebei’s capital, Shijiazhuang, launched mass testing drives and banned gatherings in response to the uptick in cases

Political Outcry Over Philippine President’s Security Guards’ Smuggled Vaccines 

In September and October members of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte’s security team received Covid-19 vaccines in spite of no shots being approved for use in the country at the time. Lawmakers are now trying to figure out how the smuggled vaccines made their way into the country. Duterte said he learned last month about several members of his personal protection being vaccinated without his knowledge. In a televised interview, Brig. Gen. Jesus Durante III, the unit’s commander, said “we vaccinated ourselves,” explaining “it’s so easy” (WSJ). The political outcry that followed resulted in an investigation by the National Bureau of Investigation and calls for a Senate inquiry as no Covid-19 vaccines have been approved by the Philippine authorities. But on Monday, Duterte told lawmakers that the guards were acting out of a sense of duty to protect him and that he would order his security detail to ignore any summons to testify if there is an investigation by Congress. The Wall Street Journal explains, “The Philippines has suffered one of the worst Covid-19 outbreaks in Southeast Asia, recording almost half a million cases and more than 9,300 deaths. Authorities aim to vaccinate 60 million to 70 million of the nation’s 106 million people over two to five years, a pace limited by procurement and logistical challenges. Officials have signed just one vaccine deal—for 2.6 million doses of the one developed by AstraZeneca —but say more are coming.”

Middle East

Israel Fears New Variant, Tightens Lockdown

In spite of leading the world in vaccination efforts, Israel is now imposing a tightened lockdown in response to soaring infection numbers (NYT). Health officials say that even as they work to vaccinate citizens, the campaign cannot compete with the more than 8,000 new cases a day and cited the new variant discovered in Britain as one of the main reasons for the increased spread of the virus. The New York Times writes: “Prof. Eran Segal of the Weizmann Institute of Science in Rehovot, Israel, presented the government with the dire projection that without [a lockdown], Israel’s infection rate could rise to 46,000 new cases per day by February, a staggering number in a country with a population of about 9 million.” As we covered in yesterday’s brief, Israel is leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the world in vaccinating its citizens and its vaccine supply is now dwindling. 

Europe

Europe at a Tipping Point Because of New Variant, Says WHO

Europe is at a tipping point in the course of the pandemic, the World Health Organization said, calling the arrival and spread of a new variant across the continent an “alarming situation” (Guardian). Hans Kluge, the WHO’s Europe director, said that almost half of the 53 countries in the region were reporting a seven-day incidence rate of more than 150 new cases per 100,000 people, with a quarter recording more than 10% surge in the past week. He said that the newly-approved vaccines offered “new tools” to fight the virus but that the proposals to prolong the gap between the first and second doses of the vaccine in order to extend supplies would need to be considered carefully. Some countries have also considered administering a lower volume dose of shots. “It is important such a decision represents a safe compromise between the limited global production capacity at the moment, and the imperative for governments to protect as many people as possible while reducing the burden of any subsequent wave on health systems,” Kluge said. 

U.S. Government & Politics

Democratic Victories in Georgia May Open Path to $2,000 Stimulus Checks

On Tuesday with Democratic victories in the Senate races in Georgia spelling a Democratic majority in the Senate, the path to Congressional passage of $2,000 stimulus checks appears to be increasingly open (WaPo). The Washington Post reports, “The move would make good on promises President-elect Joe Biden made to Georgia voters in the final days of the runoff race, which ended Tuesday with Democrat Raphael Warnock beating Republican Kelly Loeffler and Democrat Jon Ossoff with a lead over Republican David Perdue.” The New York Times called the election for Ossoff on Wednesday (NYT). The new Senate would be split 50-50 with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking the tie. Current Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer stated, “One of the first things that I want to do when our new senators are seated is deliver the $2,000 checks to the American families.” The question of providing $2,000 checks has been complex with the Post noting, “The $2,000 checks have become a flash point since President Trump embraced them in December, rejecting a lower figure negotiated by his own administration. The House approved the higher number but the Senate rejected it. Biden wavered on the issue, but ended up explicitly promising Georgia voters that should Warnock and Ossoff win, people would get the checks.” 

Top House Ways and Means Committee Republican Tests Positive for Coronavirus

On Tuesday, Congressman Kevin Brady (R-TX), announced on Twitter that he had tested positive for coronavirus and would enter quarantine (WGBH, CNN). Brady, who is the top Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee, had received his first dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine on December 18 and tested negative on New Years Day. WGBH notes that another Republican representative from Texas, Kay Granger), had also tested positive on Monday, and adds, “More than 50 members of Congress have tested positive for the coronavirus since the pandemic began in the U.S. nearly a year ago. Last month, Louisiana Congressman-elect Luke Letlow died following complications of COVID-19 just days before he was set to be sworn in.”

U.S. Economy

Global Stocks Attract Interest Amid Vaccine Rollouts

Investors are increasingly looking at and buying stocks on global markets, amid hopes for economic gains as vaccines begin to roll out (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “Many money managers are focusing on emerging markets, which they expect to outperform as the global economy accelerates in the wake of the Covid-19 vaccine rollout. Some are also taking a look at European markets, which lagged behind in 2020 but are dominated by cyclical shares.” Meanwhile, the Journal notes that some investors on the other hand harbor doubts about whether the U.S. stock market can replicate its performance over the past few months.

Manufacturers Boost Output Despite Pandemic as 2020 Ends

Manufacturers have boosted their output as 2020 comes to an end despite the impact of coronavirus, according to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Factories in the U.S., Asia and Europe boosted their output as 2020 drew to a close, aided by a rise in new orders and a revival in trade that has continued despite a sharp rise in coronavirus infections across many large economies. The resilience of the global manufacturing sector contrasts with weakness in services businesses that rely on close physical proximity, and which have suffered as consumers try to lower their risk of infection and governments impose restrictions on their behavior.” According to the Journal, “Economists expect that divergence to be a feature of the global economy well into 2021, and until vaccines are distributed broadly enough to ensure widespread immunity against Covid-19.”

U.S. Society

Business Schools Using Covid-19 Case Studies

One effect of the pandemic is that business schools have begun to use Covid-19 related case studies in their curricula, according to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). According to the Journal, such case studies are “already being studied by first-year M.B.A. students at Harvard University and other business schools around the country.” Willy Shih, a Harvard Business School professor, commented on one case study that he uses, “My aspiration was to give them, as future leaders, a way to judge these things. How do I ask the right questions? How do I make a reasoned judgment?”

As New York City Positivity Rate Tops 9 Percent, Fights Grow Over School Closing Policy

As coronavirus surges again in New York City with the positive rate topping 9%, disputes are igniting again over the city’s policies with regards to school closures (NYT). The Times writes, “For much of the summer, it was unclear whether the city had the political will or logistical prowess to reopen its public schools at all. A few weeks after schools finally did reopen, Mayor Bill de Blasio closed the entire system — only to again reopen some classrooms. But by last month, it seemed as if the city’s reopening plan was finally settled, and that some measure of stability, albeit imperfect, might begin for the nation’s largest school system.” Now however, with cases surging again, teachers unions are expressing concern. The Times reports that the “United Federation of Teachers warned the city that it believed all schools should close if the positivity rate reached a certain threshold.” Meanwhile the mayor has remained committed to keeping schools open. The Times notes that “although the overall positive test rate in schools remains low, it is rising: In December, 0.67 percent of tests were positive, up from 0.28 percent through the end of November. And more than 100 schools were closed for a mandatory quarantine because of virus cases as of Tuesday.” New York Governor Andrew Cuomo appears to have backed the mayor, saying that localities could decide to remain open even if their positivity rates surpassed 9%. Currently the state measures the city’s rate at 6% due to differences in how they tabulate results, according to the Times.

Bonus Read: “Wealthy Donors Received Vaccines Through Florida Nursing Home,” (WaPo). 

Analysis & Arguments

Spencer Bokat-Lindell examines why the vaccination process is going so slowly (NYT).

Joe Pinsker presents four numbers to help people process how deadly the pandemic has been (Atlantic).

Liliana Segura and Jordan Smith write that the pandemic has helped publicize the shortcomings of capital punishment (Intercept).

Texas Monthly profiles a 19-year-old funeral manager overwhelmed by “death calls” amid the pandemic (Texas Monthly).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Jessica Scott and Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

Read previous briefs here and stream and subscribe to our weekly podcast here.

About New America

New America is dedicated to renewing the promise of America by continuing the quest to realize our nation's highest ideals. Read the rest of our story, or see what we've been doing recently in our latest Annual Report. 

Help us to continue advancing policy solutions and journalism by making a donation to New America.