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Get the pattern, read the trend Asia in Review No. 41, October/2019, 2
Brought to you by CPG ![]() ![]() Dear Readers, The AiR team is presenting you the second issue of ‘Asia in Review’ (AiR) in October updating you on the latest developments in geopolitics and international relations as well as constitutional politics, law reform and governance in Asia. Today, I want to take the opportunity to inform you that we are planning to change the outlook and format of the Asia in Review a bit. We would be happy about any feedback from you, our readers, on how you like the present form and what you would like to have changed. Feel free to share your opinion with us at this e-mail: info@cpg-online.de I wish you an informative read! With the best wishes, Henning Glaser Director, German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG) Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU/ Main Sections
Law and Politics in East Asia ![]() China/Hong Kong: Long weekend of violence in the wake of new anti-mask law (dql) In an attempt to quell escalating violence in the city, Hong Kong’s government last week invoked the colonial-era Emergency Regulations Ordinance (ERO) for the first time since half a century to put into effect on Saturday a law banning masks during public assemblies. According to the law people concealing their face in meetings and marches, including lawful ones, in a way that prevent identification, commit a criminal offense punishable by one year of imprisonment. [Hong Kong Free Press] [Inkstone News] Chief Executive Carrie Lam justified the move with its “deterrent effect” against violent behavior which would help police officers to fulfill their duties. In response to critics fearing last week’s invocation of the ERO would open the door for more draconian regulations, Lam announced on Tuesday that the government is not considering to use emergency powers for introducing further laws. But she also did not rule out a possible intervention by Beijing, telling reporters that "if the situation becomes so bad, then no options can be ruled out if we want Hong Kong to at least have another chance," adding that she "cannot tell you categorically now under what circumstances we will do extra things, including calling on the central government to help." [CNBC] [South China Morning Post 1] [Deutsche Welle] The 1922 ERO allows the chief executive to impose any measures necessary “in the public interest” on occasions of emergency or public danger. [Hong Kong Government] Expressing their anger against this move and defying the law, masked protesters from Friday to Monday took to the streets in Hong Kong, with radical groups again clashing with police. The protests left banks and stores associated with mainland China vandalized, government buildings and train stations trashed, while police were targeted with petrol bombs. Police responded with tear gas and baton-charged the crowds. [South China Morning Post 2] In a first direct interaction with forces of the People’s Liberation Army in four months of anti-government demonstrations, a crowd of a few hundred shone lasers at barracks of the PLA in Kowloon district. [Reuters] Meanwhile, Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad was outspoken in recommending Hong Kong's embattled leader Lam to step down saying at a conference in Kuala Lumpur: “Her conscience says that the people of Hong Kong are right in rejecting the law but, on the other hand, she knows the consequences of rejecting the law. […] But for the administrator, I think, the best thing to do is resign." [Channel News Asia] South Korea: Political divide over embattled justice minister continues (dql) The month-long spat over embattled Justice Minister Cho Kuk between the ruling Democratic Party (DP) and the main opposition Liberty Korea Party (LKP) continued last week with unabated virulence. Following an LKP-staged rally on Thursday to press President Moon to sack the Minister, attended by hundreds of thousand, LKP-supporters and critics of the President, a counter-rally in support of Cho took place on Saturday. Cho was appointed last month as new Justice Minister amid fierce resistance from the main opposition party and other critics over corruption allegations against his wife who was summoned and questioned by the prosecution last week.[Yonhap] [Korea Herald] [Hankyoreh] Taiwan set to sharpen anti-espionage law (dql) An amendment bill to the National Intelligence Service Law containing provisions to increase the maximum penalty for espionage to a life sentence last week passed the committee stage in Taiwan’s parliament. According to the bill, penalties for intelligence officers and other government officers convicted of leaking state secrets, range from 10 years imprisonment to life sentence, while the statute of limitations on espionage crimes will be removed. Under current law, the penalties cover sentences of three to 10 years for handing information over to a foreign power, and one to 12 years for working clandestinely for a foreign power. [Focus Taiwan] Japan: Free preschool education introduced (dql) Last week, a law on free preschool education in Japan, enacted last December, came into effect, making attending Kindergartens and certified daycare centers free of charge for all households, irrespective of their income levels, for children aged between three and five. [NHK] Meanwhile, latest figures released by Japan’s Health Ministry reveal that the number of babies born in Japan is declining even faster than expected, with births from January to July falling 5.9% on the year to 518,590, marking the sharpest drop in 30 years and the fourth straight yearly decline. [CNN] Law and Politics in South Asia ![]() India: Impacts of Kashmir and Jammu’s change of status and the internet lockdown (ls) After India changed the status of Indian-controlled Kashmir and divided it into two centrally governed union territories, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh, also the future of Ladakh remains unsure. When the change in governmental status was announced for Ladakh, there were celebrations by its Buddhist population, whereas Muslims largely want to remain tied to the Kashmir valley. Many Buddhists now fear land grabs, loss of trade and damage to the fragile ecosystem of the region’s high-altitude deserts. On the Muslim side, posters and banners demanding Kashmir’s independence from India could be seen at several mosques and religious sites. So far, the tensions between the groups have been confined to cultural and political differences, without violence. The question is whether this is going to change. [Japan Times] For two months now, the Indian Internet and mobile blockade has cost Kashmir's IT industry significant losses. Several companies have already laid off workers, many are preparing to move their business away from Kashmir. Apart from 6,000 mobiles used by police and government officials, most of Kashmir's 880,000 mobile connections and Internet services remain suspended. [Straits Times] India: Reports and opinions on Mahatma Gandhi’s 150th birthday (ls) On the occasion of the 150th anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi’s birthday last week, several perspectives on the celebrations but also Gandhi’s life and legacy for Indian politics and society have been published. India Today brought an overview of the commemorative ceremonies in which politicians from all camps to part. [India Today] Al Jazeera offered a DPA piece on the (ir)relevance of Gandhi’s teachings amid the rise of Hindu nationalism and ongoing attacks against minorities. [Al Jazeera] And Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrote an article for the New York Times on “Why India and the World Need Gandhi”. [New York Times] Sri Lanka: Sirisena not running for re-election as Rajapaksa’s qualification is affirmed (ls) Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena has decided not to run in the country’s presidential election next month (16 November). He was not listed on the candidate list. Last year, Sirisena dismissed Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and replaced him with ex-President Mahinda Rajapaksa, a former political rival. The Supreme Court, however, ruled against Sirisena’s action and reinstated Wickremesinghe. Sirisena also faced criticism over the government’s handling of an intelligence report warning of the Easter Day bombings that killed 250 people. [Al Jazeera] Meanwhile, the Sri Lankan Appeal Court dismissed a legal challenge to presidential candidate Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s qualification to run in the election. The court ruled that Rajapaksa holds Sri Lankan citizenship and no additional U.S. citizenship. Sri Lanka does not allow dual citizens or non-citizens to contest national elections. Rajapaksa is widely seen as the election frontrunner because of his popularity among majority Sinhala Buddhists for his role in ending a 26-year civil war in 2009. [Reuters] Pakistan: Former PM Musharraf to be back in politics? (ls) According to a media report, former Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf (76) said that he is planning to make a comeback in national politics by reviving his party, the All Pakistan Muslim League (APML). However, Musharraf is facing a treason case in Pakistan for suspending the constitution in 2007, which makes it unlikely for him to return to Pakistan anytime soon. Musharraf left for Dubai in 2016 to seek medical treatment and has not returned since. [Economic Times] Nepal: House Speaker arrested over rape allegations (ls) Krishna Bahadur Mahara, the Speaker of Nepal’s House of Representatives, has been arrested after he had resigned from his post following an accusation of rape by a staff of the parliament secretariat. The news of rape surfaced after a news website published a report on September 30, where the woman accused Mahara of raping her in her own residence. [BBC] [Himalayan Times] The governing Nepal Communist Party had also asked Mahara to step down. He was the chief negotiator for the Maoists during the peace talks that ended Nepal's decade-long civil war in 2006 and served as Finance Minister and Home Minister in successive Maoist-led governments after 2008. He was elected speaker after an alliance of the rebels and moderate communists won a landslide victory in the 2017 national elections. Throughout his political career, he was involved in several scandals and controversies. [Nepali Times] Law and Politics in Southeast Asia ![]() Fake news in SEA: Singapore's fake news law comes into effect, Malaysia's does not (jk) Last week, Singapore’s fake news law - the Protection from Online Falsehoods and Manipulation Act (POFMA), took effect. The new law provides for criminal sanctions for individuals, including jail time of up to 10 years, and fines of up to S$1 million for technology companies. Under the new law, any government minister can decide whether to act against a piece of falsehood on the internet, and can order it to be taken down or ask for corrections to be put up alongside it. Ministers can also order technology companies to block accounts that are spreading alleged untruths. Critics such as The Asia Internet Coalition described the law as the “most far-reaching legislation of its kind to date”. It gives the “Singapore government full discretion over what is considered true or false.” [Asia Times] To critics that have pointed to a potentially long and most importantly costly procedure of appeal, the government has said that it will cost "as little as S$200" and take "as fast as nine days" for anyone to challenge a minister’s decision. Under the subsidiary laws to the act, court fees for the first three days of the appeal hearing will be waived. However, according to the Straits Times, the minister also decides whether an appeal against his or her decision will be accepted. Companies such as Google, Facebook and Twitter may be required to ascertain the identity of those who want to put up any paid political content in Singapore, like advertisements seeking to influence the outcome of elections. These companies may also be required to disclose to the public the paid political content. They have been given a temporary exception from the law in order to give them time to implement the technical measures required to comply with the law. [The Straits Times] As reported last week, Thailand will open its first anti-fake news centre next month, tasked to combat unverified news on social media platforms. [Asia in Review, No. 40, October/2019, 1] Thailand and Singapore are far from the only Southeast Asian countries that have prioritised a government approach to dealing with real or alleged fake news - Southeast Asia has in fact become somewhat of a "world's laboratory" on this particular issue, argues CPG's Lasse Schuldt. [Voice of Asia] Lastly, Malaysia's ruling Pakatan Harapan (PH) government continues its attempts to prevent the former government's fake news law to be enacted. PH wants to repeal the act after it was rushed through parliament by the Barisan Nasional (BN) government just before they lost the national elections last year. This is PH's second attempt to repeal the law after its repeal was blocked the first time around by the upper house. [The Straits Times] Singapore: The 28 Most Important Issues Facing the city state (jk) Independent online platform New Naratif asked its readers what they think about the current state of Singapore and the most important issues facing the country today. Its about 450 responses paint a basic picture of Singaporean woes today. Leaving aside the relatively small sample size and the narrow pool of New Naratif readers, the answers paint an interesting picture of what will likely dominate the upcoming elections. [New Naratif] Indonesia: More than 16,000 flee unrest in Indonesia's Papua region (jk) Due to the ongoing unrests in Indonesia's Papua region, the military said on Monday that more than 16,000 residents have fled from the violence in Wamena. [Al Jazeera] Human Rights Watch called for an independent investigation into 33 deaths during the Wamena riots which ought to be led by the country's National Commission on Human Rights. [Human Rights Watch] Indonesia: Sukarno heir elected as Indonesia's first female House speaker (td) The Indonesian parliament elected its first female house speaker, Puan Maharani Nakshatra Kusyala, granddaughter of the country's first president and daughter of former president Megawati Sukarnoputri. The 46-year-old politician was coordinating minister for human development and cultural affairs in President Joko Widodo's Cabinet, before she resigned to take up her seat in parliament. Maharani is a member of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, which is led by her mother and is the largest party in parliament. (Aljazeera) Malaysia: 18-year-old allowed to contest in by-elections (td/jk) For the first time, an 18 year old candidate will be allowed to contest in by-elections, starting with a parliamentary by-election in Johor in November. This is seen as bringing a breath of fresh air in youth representation and will be the first such instance since the federal constitution has been changed to lower the age of eligible candidates earlier this year. [New Straits Times] [The Star] Thailand: Military reform puts two regiments under His Majesty’s personal control (jk) An emergency decree by the government transferred the 1st and 11th Infantry Regiments - the King’s personal and palace bodyguards, to His Majesty’s personal control. The two regiments form part of the King's Guard within the Royal Thai Armed Forces dedicated to the protection of the Royal Family. The contingents were previously operated under the regular military chain of command. [Prachatai] Thailand: Yala Judge shoots himself to protest alleged interference (jk) A senior judge in the Thai southern province of Yala has shot himself in the chest at a provincial court after dismissing a case against five Muslim suspects. He claimed he was pressured to convict the suspects without having seen clear evidence in the case. The judge left a written statement describing the alleged interference and calling to "return justice to the people" and the "ruling to the judges". He is hospitalised but since the weekend out of intensive care. [Khaosod] [Bangkok Post] International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia ![]() China-USA relations: Washington blacklists Chinese companies ahead of trade talks (dql) Citing their implication “in human rights violations and abuses in the implementation of China's campaign of repression, mass arbitrary detention, and high-technology surveillance against Uighurs, Kazakhs, and other members of Muslim minority groups," [US Department of Commerce] the US Commerce Department on Monday added 28 Chinese public security bureaus and companies on a US trade blacklist including corporations specializing in video surveillance, facial recognition and artificial intelligence. Affected companies include Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co. and Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co., two of the world’s largest video surveillance firms, as well as AI giants SenseTime Group Ltd. and Megvii Technology Ltd., both backed by Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba. [New York Times] [Engadget] The move comes ahead of high-level trade talks set to resume this week in Washington. China's Foreign Ministry criticized the US blacklist, rejecting the claims as "groundless." [Deutsche Welle] In an earlier statement last week, US Secretary Pompeo, speaking during a brief tour through the Western Balkans, warned against “the risks of Chinese investment and sensitive technologies” as well as of “China’s bribe-heavy strategy for infrastructure deals.” [Aljazeera] Meanwhile, during Pompeo’s subsequent visit to Athens, the United States and Greece at the weekend signed a revised defense-cooperation pact to increase joint U.S.-Greece and NATO activity on Greek soil as well as infrastructure and other improvements at the Souda Bay naval base, the largest and most prominent naval base for the United States and NATO in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. [ABC News] Pompeo was quick to reassure that the deepening defense relations with Greece, a traditional bitter rival of Turkey, was not related to increased tensions between Washington and Istanbul in the recent past. [RadioFreeEurope] China’s foothold in South America: Peru’s largest electric company to be sold to China (dql) US-based energy infrastructure company Sempra Energy announced last week that it would sell its Peruvian businesses for 3.59 billion USD to a unit of China Yangtze Power International Co. The sale includes its 83.6 percent share in Luz del Sur, the largest electric company in Peru. Sempra also announced a memorandum of understanding with state-owned China Three Gorges (CTG) Corporation on potential cooperation in supplying LNG to support China’s growing demand for natural gas. [San Diego Union-Tribune] China-Russia relations: Moscow assisting Beijing in creating missile warning system (dql) In the latest sign of Moscow and Beijing deepening their strategic partnership, TASS cites Russian President Putin confirming at the annual meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club, a Moscow based think tank and discussion forum, that “[w]e are now helping our Chinese partners to create a missile warning system. This is a very serious thing, that will drastically enhance the defensive capacity of the People’s Republic of China.” [TASS] China continues to interfere with Vietnamese fishers within Vietnam's EEZ (jk) According to Vietnamese media outlets, Chinese ships continue to harass and chase away local Vietnamese fishermen fishing within Vietnam's exclusive economic zone (EEZ). In a latest incident over the weekend, three Chinese vessels drove away a Vietnamese fishing boat and prevented it from fishing just over 110 nautical miles off the coast of central Khanh Hoa Province. Similar incidents keep occurring according Vietnamese media. Last week, a Chinese speedboat prevented Vietnamese fishermen to recover their vessel after it sank in the Paracel Islands, which are claimed by both Vietnam and the People's Republic of China. [VNExpress] As for the broader tensions between Vietnam and China, Vietnam expert Carlyle Thayer lays out three broad options for the Vietnamese leadership to consider: (1) continue to muddle through by “cooperating and struggling” with China; (2) back down in order to relieve unrelenting Chinese pressure, the precedent set in the Repsol case in July 2017 and March 2018; and (3) counter-balance Chinese pressure by stepping up security and defence cooperation with the United States by agreeing to raise bilateral relations to a strategic partnership in the near future. [Radio Free Asia] North Korea-USA resumed denuclearization talks: Contrasting assessments (dql) The widely anticipated denuclearization talks between North Korea and the USA in Stockholm last weekend, the first after an eight months hiatus since the failed summit between US President Trump and North Korean Leader Kim in Hanoi in February, ended without any progress, at least in the view of Pyongyang which expressed disappointment over “sickening negotiations” and denounced Washington for coming to the talks unprepared and empty-handed, offering no new ideas and “abusing the D.P.R.K.-U.S. dialogue for […] domestic political” purposes. Washington, however, distanced itself from this assessment claiming that it “brought creative ideas and had good discussions with its DPRK counterparts." [New York Times] [BBC] Ahead of the talks, North Korea announced that it had successfully tested an underwater-launched ballistic missile, the first in three years. The test is considered as Pyongyang’s most high-profile weapons launch since diplomatic efforts with the USA started early last year. [Time] South Korea-Japan relations: Moon not attending Emperor’s enthronement (dql) Reflecting frosty relations between South Korea and Japan over wartime history and trade disputes, President Moon Jae-in, according to diplomatic sources, will not attend Emperor Naruhito’s coronation on 22 October. Instead, Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon is likely to participate in the enthronement ceremony. [Korea Times] India: No academic cooperation with China without prior approval (ls) India’s University Grants Commission (UGC) has instructed its universities not to enter into academic cooperation agreements with Chinese institutions unless they obtain prior approval by the Ministry of Home Affairs and the Ministry of External Affairs. The new rule applies to Memoranda of Understanding, educational exchange programmes, agreements or other joint declarations of intent. Existing cooperation agreements will also need to be approved. Whether the move just means a step to mere monitoring or indicates a trend toward reduced cooperation remains to be seen in the future. [South China Morning Post] India and USA discuss plans to advance their vision for Free and Open Indo-Pacific (td) Last week, India and the United States discussed plans to advance their common vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific region. The discussions were held during a bilateral talk between external affairs minister S Jaishankar and US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo. The two sides also discussed a wide range of bilateral and multilateral issues of mutual interest including the growing US-India strategic relationship and the developments pertaining to Kashmir. [Times of India] India-Bangladesh relations: Strategic interests more important than disagreements (ls) Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other senior Indian officials last week. They agreed on the need for greater effort to facilitate the safe return of hundreds of thousands of Rohingya refugees to Myanmar. As regards India’s recent move to identify thousands of what it says are "illegal migrants" from Bangladesh, the two prime ministers were not reaching any agreement. Nonetheless, India is focused on making Bangladesh a central element of its Act East policy, to counter China's growing influence in South Asia. [DW] Philippine President Duterte visits Russia (jk) Philippine President Duterte went to Russia last week for a five-day official visit and meetings with the Russian President and Prime Minister. According to a spokesman, Duterte views this second visit as a "good occasion to broaden Philippines-Russia cooperation in a wide range of areas, such as trade and economics, defense and military, health, and science and technology, among others". [Manila Bulletin] During the visit, the two countries agreed to explore commercial aviation deals, but relations have seen an uptick in the defence sector, too. Earlier this year, two Russian warships docked in Manila and conducted joint drills with the Philippine Navy. While this was not the first ever visit by a Russian vessel to the Philippines, later in July a Philippine Navy ship sailed to Vladivostok for a naval parade in the second Philippine port call to Vladivostok after the inaugural visit in October 2018. [National Interest] Cambodia - Vietnam and Cambodia - Laos ratify border demarcations (jk) Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen and Vietnamese PM Nguyen Xuan Phuc have ratified 84 percent of border demarcation work completed between the two nations on their 1,270-kilometre border. [Khmer Times] Cambodia shares another border with Laos, which is also undergoing a demarcation process. PM Hun Sen and Lao Prime Minister Thongloun Sisoulith ratified 86 percent of the border between their two countries last month. [Bangkok Post] Background Reading ![]() On the successes of Taiwan's New Southbound Policy (jk) At the East-West Center, several authors discuss Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy from domestic, foreign policy, and strategic perspectives. It has had success improving trade, investment, tourism and educational engagement with ASEAN countries. In his piece on Vietnam, one of the authors sums up that "after Tsai’s inauguration, Taiwan’s exports to ASEAN increased by 14.2% in 2017, and investment rose by 73.3% in 2016 from the previous years. In addition, the number of ASEAN students studying in Taiwan ranks second after China while the number of tourists from Southeast Asia rose by 29% in 2017 from the previous year as a result of the relaxation on visa policy for ASEAN nationals". [East West Center] [A Vietnam Perspective on Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy] An analysis of Bangladesh’s Digital Security Act (ls) A thorough analysis of Bangladesh’s Digital Security Act (BDSA) of 2018 argues that the law was created to mitigate Section 57 of the previous Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Act of 2006. However, the author argues that, contrary to expectations, the BDSA casts an even wider net over free speech and dissent than its predecessor. The Act not only broadened the scope of what constitutes online crime but also took away the few legal protections granted under the ICT Act. [ORF] We would greatly appreciate your feedback! Please send any feedback you have regarding this newsletter to: info@cpg-online.de Also, don't forget to Like CPG on Facebook, and browse our website for other updates and news!
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