Investors will focus on U.S. inflation data for June as they look to judge whether the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates any time soon.

U.S. money markets currently price in a less than 7% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut on July 30 and a 71% chance of a reduction in September, LSEG data show. Rate cuts are fully priced in for October and December.

Inflation data are also due from Canada, the eurozone, the U.K. and Japan, while a slew of data releases from China will attract close attention.

Investors will continue to await news on any U.S. tariff deals with individual countries ahead of the new deadline of Aug. 1 for when reciprocal tariffs will take effect. Read more.

New tariffs unveiled by President Trump have further muddied the inflation outlook, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said, making it more difficult for him to support the rate cuts that the president has pressed for.

Over the past few months, after Trump paused the steep bilateral tariffs he proposed in April, anxiety about how tariffs could push up prices calmed substantially. That had put the Federal Reserve on track to ease interest rates again soon, Goolsbee said in an interview Friday.

Much higher U.S. tariffs on imports from the European Union would further weaken already anemic growth in the eurozone, and likely prompt the European Central Bank to lower borrowing costs.

President Trump on Saturday threatened to raise the duty charged on imports of a wide range of goods to 30% from 10% if the European Union doesn’t drop all of its tariffs on U.S. goods. The U.S. already charges higher tariffs for imports of automobiles and metals, and is considering additional duties on pharmaceuticals and other goods. Read more.

The U.S. will charge 30% tariffs on goods from both the European Union and Mexico, effective Aug. 1, President Trump said in letters posted on Truth Social over the weekend. Trump said he would consider lowering the respective levies if the EU offers “complete, open Market Access to the United States, with no Tariff being charged to us,” and if Mexico does more to combat drug cartels.

When China’s central bank governor laid out his vision for a more multipolar monetary system last month, he signaled Beijing’s openness to exploring stablecoins. As the People’s Bank of China seeks a bigger role for the yuan on the global stage, ignoring stablecoins—a type of crypto backed by cash reserves or assets such as U.S. Treasurys—could put the Chinese currency at a disadvantage.

10 a.m: Federal Reserve Board of Governors closed meeting
7 p.m.: Federal Reserve Board adopts new Fedwire Funds Service message format

8:30 a.m.: CPI Data
8:30 a.m.: Real Earnings
8:30 a.m.: Empire State Manufacturing Survey
9 a.m.: Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
7 p.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Greater Baltimore Committee
7:45 p.m.: FRB Dallas President Lorie Logan speaks at 'The View from the Fed' event

U.S. CPI data, while obviously important, is unlikely to lead to a significant breakout in rates on its own, Citi Research's strategists say in a note. A mild upside versus forecasts would further entrench the Federal Reserve's pause, while a downside inflation surprise would keep the door open for a September rate cut, they say. However, "probably not enough to meaningfully increase the chance of subsequent cuts," they say. June U.S. CPI data is due on Tuesday. Economists in The Wall Street Journal's poll expect both the headline and core month-on-month CPI to rise 0.3% versus 0.1% in May.— Emese Bartha

• America’s biggest trading partners have tried tactics ranging from appeasement to retaliation to avoid higher tariffs. Most have come away bruised and empty-handed.
• Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum's government has been unable to defuse the threat of stinging U.S. tariffs, in large part because of the White House’s focus on whether Mexico can take on the entrenched cartels feeding fentanyl and other illicit drugs to the voracious American market.
• A surprise surge in hiring helped pull Canada’s unemployment rate down for the first time since January, a signal of resilience despite the stresses and uncertainty brought on by the Trump administration’s hostile approach to global trade.
• The European Union’s top trade negotiator said he will speak to his U.S. counterparts again after President Trump threatened to slap a 30% tariff on goods from the bloc over the weekend.
• China’s exports grew at a faster clip in June, topping market expectations as trade tensions with the U.S. eased following a round of bilateral talks.
• Malaysia has tightened rules around the movement of artificial-intelligence chips from the U.S., a hot-button issue for the Trump administration’s trade policy.

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by news associate Roshan Fernandez in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to roshan.fernandez@wsj.com.