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The Morning Download: Oracle, OpenAI’s Extreme Economics

By Steven Rosenbush

 

Masayoshi Son, chairman and CEO of SoftBank, Larry Ellison, executive charmain of Oracle and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., Jan 21, 2025. Photo: Jim Watson/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Good morning. To put Oracle’s $300 billion cloud deal with OpenAI in context, consider that the contract will require 4.5 gigawatts of power capacity, roughly comparable to the electricity produced by more than two Hoover Dams or four million homes.

The financial details are equally jarring. “OpenAI is a money-losing startup that disclosed in June it was generating roughly $10 billion in annual revenue—less than one-fifth of the $60 billion it will have to pay on average every year,” the WSJ reports. “Oracle is concentrating a large chunk of its future revenue on one customer—and will likely have to take on debt to buy the AI chips needed to power the data centers.”

It begs the question, “why?” Why would Oracle and OpenAI enter into such a deal, and why would anyone lend them capital to fund it? For one thing, they are focused on demand. A “near-constant computing shortage” is “hampering the rollout of OpenAI’s products and constraining progress building new AI models,” and that’s a broader issue for the AI industry, the WSJ says.

Historic bets on AI also assume that demand will skyrocket from here, on the belief that companies will ramp up use of agents that constantly run in the background for longer and longer periods of time. Such applications will require more compute power and energy than training models, big projects that occur in spurts. And they expect the price of both compute power and energy to fall as supply increases and their fundamental efficiency improves.

Large and risky investments on that scale only make sense when viewed alongside the construction of the electrical or telecommunications grids or the interstate highways. And they only make sense if you believe that AI itself is going to have a broad, societal impact on par with the lightbulb or the car. There are good indications that the bet will prove to be correct, but even so it will be a high-risk process with plenty of pain.

 
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Tech Leadership

Photo by Kimberly White/Getty Images for TechCrunch

How should tech leaders view this current moment? The WSJ Leadership Institute spoke to Steve Jang, founder and managing partner at Kindred Ventures, for perspective on the current wave of AI investment. "Any innovation cycle that we've seen over the last 25, 30 years has felt like a bubble," he said. Jang shared his thoughts on the benefits of bubbles and the overlooked part of AI that decisionmakers should be paying close attention to.

WSJLI: There's been a lot of talk that we're in an AI bubble, but maybe the tide is starting to shift. Oracle shares skyrocketed this week on news that it scored mega AI deals. What do you think?

Jang: You need bubbles to create intensity and focus of capital and to create, to attract a lot of talent, to be entrepreneurial and build new things that are very risky.

I'm very, very optimistic about this technology wave because it's sort of a mega-wave on top of every other technology wave that's happening: robotics, autonomous vehicles, software.

WSJLI: What aren't people paying enough attention to when it comes to AI?

Jang: In the future, everything will be inference based. This is the part that even the AI industry, the tech industry, but definitely the mainstream financial markets and traditional industries, underestimate.

Every action on the internet, every action on servers, every action in your mobile apps, even you walk home and you have home personal computing, security cameras, voice control ... it's all going to be using inference.

WSJLI: Where are you investing in AI right now, and why?

Jang: What used to be called "middleware" and tooling in the previous era was considered a thin layer and not as exciting, but actually is probably the most exciting area in AI because it makes the models useful. It enables the developers and the end users and the businesses to have access to GPUs and models.

This is a fat layer of value and excitement and sexiness for the industry because that's where the delta is. There's a lot of old-school VCs that don't like that space, but they're so wrong.

 

🎧 How a $1.5 million settlement could alter the course of AI. Artificial intelligence company Anthropic agreed to pay at least $1.5 billion to settle a copyright infringement lawsuit over the company's use of pirated books to train large-language models.

 

Reading List

Klarna’s IPO has been years in the making. Photo: Stefani Reynolds/Bloomberg News

In another sign that the IPO market is back, shares of online-payments provider Klarna jumped as much as 30% on Wednesday in its NYSE debut. Founded in 2005, the Sweden-based fintech was among the first companies to publicly link workforce reductions and cost savings to its use of generative AI.

AI coding startup Replit raised $250 million in a round that nearly tripled its valuation to $3 billion, Bloomberg reports.

First Oracle, now … Texas Instruments? The chip maker with a decades-long pedigree  said its data center business is growing from a single-digit percentage of its revenue to 20%, Bloomberg reports.

Billionaire Larry Ellison briefly topped billionaire Elon Musk as the world’s richest person Wednesday after Oracle’s AI-fueled stock surge.

After a funding round valued Paris-based startup Mistral at $13.7 billion, its three founders became the first French AI billionaires, Bloomberg reports.

 

Everything Else You Need to Know

The manhunt for the killer of Charlie Kirk continued after the conservative political activist and author was shot on stage during an event at Utah Valley University. (WSJ)

Senate Republicans voted down a measure to release more material related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, staying mostly united in blocking an effort led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. (WSJ)

Global oil markets are bracing for an even larger surplus than previously anticipated as supply growth continues to far outstrip demand, the International Energy Agency said in its closely watched monthly report. (WSJ)

Saudi Arabia is building some of the world’s biggest solar farms, along with giant arrays of batteries to store their electricity till after dark. The rapid rollout is making the country into one of the fastest-growing markets for solar power from a near-standing start. (WSJ)


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About Us

The WSJ CIO Journal Team is Steven Rosenbush, Isabelle Bousquette and Belle Lin.

The editor, Tom Loftus, can be reached at thomas.loftus@wsj.com.

 
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