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October 5, 2020 - Brief Issue 99

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

Top Headlines

U.S. Continues to Lead in Coronavirus Cases; New York City Reverses Reopening in Some Zip Codes; Wisconsin Reports Third Highest Case Numbers in U.S. (Health & Science)

President Trump’s Health Still in Question After Hospitalization for COVID-19; Discharge Possible Today; Campaign Activities Continue for Both Parties (U.S. Government & Politics)

Pelosi Not in Loop on Trump’s Health (U.S. Government & Politics)

Coronavirus Relief Deal Remains Elusive (U.S. Government & Politics)

Pope Francis: Pandemic Demonstrates Limits of Capitalism (Around the World)

Paris Goes On Maximum Alert Amid Coronavirus Resurgence (Around the World)

Italy Likely To Impose New Public Health Restrictions (Around the World)

Solomon Islands Sees First Coronavirus Case (Around the World)

Australia To Open Border to New Zealanders (Around the World)

Pilgrims Return to Mecca (Around the World)

Pandemic Reverses America’s Small Town Main Street Revival (U.S. Economy)

Restaurants Adapt to Enable Outdoor Dining as Cold Months Approach (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 7,418,737 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 209,734 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 2,911,699 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 107,874,833 tests. Worldwide, there have been 35,220,166 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 1,037,604 deaths. At least 24,533,728 people have recovered from the virus. 

U.S. Continues to Lead in Coronavirus Cases; New York City Reverses Reopening in Some Zip Codes; Wisconsin Reports Third Highest Case Numbers in U.S.

Just over a week after hitting the milestone of 7,000,000 COVID cases, the U.S. has added another 400,000 to that number (Johns Hopkins). The U.S. continues to have the most COVID-19 deaths of any country (Johns Hopkins). On Saturday, India became the third country in the world, following the U.S. and Brazil, to reach 100,000 deaths (Johns Hopkins, Reuters). As we have covered in previous briefs, many experts believe the number of deaths and cases in India is a significant undercount.

Three states – Texas, Missouri, and South Carolina – have reported decreasing daily case numbers compared with last week. However, 21 states report increasing numbers, with the remainder reporting no change (CNN). Some officials cite falling temperatures, with colder weather driving people indoors (Reuters). Overall, the United States continues to trend upward in daily case count, with numbers from the past week in the 40,000-50,000 per day range (Johns Hopkins). Former CDC Director Tom Frieden emphasized Friday the importance of a comprehensive COVID-19 strategy, warning, “We are nowhere near herd immunity, and getting there without a vaccine would cost hundreds of thousands of lives and millions of jobs” (Twitter).

After having seen declining case numbers over the summer months, New York has seen an uptick in cases over the past week, with nine hotspots in Brooklyn and Queens largely accounting for the numbers (Johns Hopkins, CNBC). In response, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio is moving to reverse reopening in these neighborhoods, shutting down non-essential businesses and closing schools again for a period of two to four weeks. “This is not easy at all,” the mayor acknowledged. “[but] we can stop this from spreading more deeply into New York City” (Politico). The order to close schools and non-essential businesses will go into effect Wednesday pending approval by state officials (NYT, WSJ).

Case numbers in Wisconsin continue to rise, with total cases over the past week totaling more than 17,000 over the past week, behind only Texas and California (DHS Wisconsin, WSJ). Health officials initially believed the rise in cases to be primarily due to cases arising on college campuses, but with similar increases in numbers in older adults, the cause is less clear (WSJ). Hospitalizations continue to rise in the state; 81% of available hospital beds are currently occupied, and 29 percent of COVID patients are in an intensive care unit, according to the Wisconsin Department of Health Services. White House officials are urging the state’s residents to be more vigilant about social distancing and wearing masks, and teacher’s unions across the state have requested that all classrooms move to virtual learning as the state’s cases continue to soar (CNN). Other states in the region, including Missouri, Iowa, North Dakota, and South Dakota, are experiencing similar trends (CNBC). Montana reported 501 cases on Saturday, setting a new daily record for the state (AP).

U.S. Government & Politics

President Trump’s Health Still in Question After Hospitalization for COVID-19; Discharge Possible Today; Campaign Activities Continue for Both Parties

On Friday morning, President Trump announced that he and First Lady Melania Trump had tested positive for coronavirus (NPR). After requiring supplemental oxygen treatment Friday morning, the President was admitted to Walter Reed Medical Center, where he has been treated with the steroid dexamethasone, typically given only in severe cases (Politico, NYT). His medical care also includes treatment with Remdesivir, an experimental antiviral drug which was authorized by the FDA earlier this year for emergency use by Covid-19 patients (NPR). Despite conflicting reports over the weekend, President Trump’s physician Dr. Sean Conley told the press Sunday that “the President has continued to improve” and could be ready for a release as soon as Monday (WSJ, NPR, Fox). Trump’s medical team has stated that his condition was improving, while also acknowledging that his oxygen levels had dropped twice, a sign of a potentially serious case of Covid-19 (Politico, WSJ, WaPo). Bonus Read: “What to Know About Sean Conley, the White House Physician,” (NYT).

The timeline of Trump’s treatment and release has been a source of confusion. Following Dr. Conley’s upbeat briefing to reporters on Saturday, White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows stated, “the President’s vitals over the last 24 hours were very concerning and the next 48 hours will be critical in terms of his care. We are still not on a clear path to a full recovery” (CNN, Politico, WSJ). Trump was reportedly “outraged” over the contradictory messaging, which cast the president’s health and the credibility of his staff into question (CNN). In Conley’s Sunday briefing, he continued to maintain that the president was doing well and could potentially be discharged Monday. However, Conley offered few details in response to reporter questions regarding Trump’s oxygen levels, X-rays, and CT scans (CNN). Trump addressed the nation from his hospital room on Saturday, saying that he was feeling “much better” and that his medical team was working to “get [him] all the way back” (Politico). On Sunday, Trump left Walter Reed Medical Center to drive by and wave to supporters who had gathered outside (NPR). The drive departed from government guidelines for coronavirus patients, sparking safety concerns particularly regarding the Secret Service agents who accompanied him (WSJ). Currently there are no plans for Vice President Mike Pence to assume temporary control of the White House (WaPo).

Several other family members and close advisers to the president have also tested positive for COVID-19, including First Lady Melania Trump, who remains in quarantine at the White House (CNN). Officials believe the outbreak began at the September 26 Rose Garden event announcing Amy Coney Barrett’s Supreme Court nomination (CNN, WaPo). The event took place both outdoors and inside the White House, where attendees were reportedly not wearing masks or observing physical distancing guidelines (NPR). Trump reportedly failed to disclose a positive coronavirus test taken Thursday, instead waiting until early Friday, when his second test also came back positive (WSJ). Bonus Read: “Inside Trump’s Last Public Event Before Disclosing He Has Coronavirus,” (WSJ).

Former Vice President Joe Biden, who debated Donald Trump on September 29, tested negative for the virus. So far, no one from the Biden campaign who was present at the debate has tested positive (Politico). Senior adviser Symone Sanders stated that the campaign has been following health guidelines and conducts regular testing. For now the former vice president has resumed his campaign activities, though he has pulled negative ads about President Trump (Politico). Bonus Read: “Biden’s Negative Test Result Isn’t Enough to Say He’s in the Clear,” (Atlantic).

Meanwhile, Vice President Mike Pence and members of Trump’s family are resuming campaign activities in his absence, with some changes. Several in-person events have been cancelled or postponed, and aides are working to adjust to virtual campaigning for events involving the president (Politico). Pence is taking the spotlight in the campaign and is scheduled to debate Senator Kamala Harris on Wednesday (NYT, WSJ). In response to concerns raised by the Biden campaign, the Commission on Presidential Debates agreed to position Harris and Pence 12 feet apart instead of the original seven feet (Politico). Bonus Reads: “Their President is Hospitalized, but that Hasn’t Changed Their View of the Coronavirus,” (WaPo); “As Virus Spreads Across GOP Ranks, Some Republicans Say Party Will Pay Price for ‘Stupid’ Approach,” (WaPo).

Pelosi Not in Loop on Trump’s Health

On Sunday, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi stated that she is not in the loop of those receiving information regarding Trump’s health following his COVID-19 diagnosis (Politico). Pelosi told CBS’s Face the Nation that “we're getting our information the way everyone else is, in the media.” Pelosi tested negative for coronavirus on Friday and plans to receive regular tests.

Coronavirus Relief Deal Remains Elusive

On Sunday, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi stated that there is still no deal yet regarding a bill to provide further coronavirus relief funds (WaPo). Pelosi made the comment a day after Trump tweeted support for more funding from Walter Reed Military Medical Center following his hospitalization (WaPo). The tweet read in part, “OUR GREAT USA WANTS & NEEDS STIMULUS. WORK TOGETHER AND GET IT DONE.” Asked if the tweet signaled a coming deal, Pelosi said, “No, it means that we want to see that they will agree on what we need to do to crush the virus so that we can open the economy and open our schools safely.” 

Around the World

Pope Francis: Pandemic Demonstrates Limits of Capitalism

The COVID-19 pandemic has shown to the world the limits of market economics, said Pope Francis in an encyclical circulated Sunday. “The fragility of world systems in the face of the pandemic has demonstrated that not everything can be resolved by market freedom,” wrote Pope Francis. “It is imperative to have a proactive economic policy directed at ‘promoting an economy that favours productive diversity and business creativity’ and makes it possible for jobs to be created, and not cut.” The pope also criticized shortcomings in international cooperation against the pandemic, adding that major institutional changes will be needed once it ends. “Anyone who thinks that the only lesson to be learned was the need to improve what we were already doing, or to refine existing systems and regulations, is denying reality,” he wrote (AP).

Europe

Paris Goes On Maximum Alert Amid Coronavirus Resurgence

Paris has been put on maximum pandemic alert amid a rapidly rising caseload. Bars will be closed for two weeks starting on Tuesday while restaurants will be forced to adopt tighter public health measures. The government has also called for people to voluntarily stay at home, with the prime minister’s office urging "more than ever” that those who can work at home do so. Interior minister Gerald Darmanin admitted that the new measures would be difficult, although he maintained that the measures have widespread public support. "We are French, we love to drink, to eat, to live, to smile and to kiss each other," Darmanin said to broadcasters LCI and Europe 1 on Sunday. The new rules were triggered over the weekend after new coronavirus diagnosis lingered at 250 people per 100,000, hitting a threshold already reached in Aix-en-Provence and Marseille. The country’s 16,972 new coronavirus cases on Saturday represented the largest daily increase since the start of the pandemic (France 24).

Italy Likely To Impose New Public Health Restrictions

Italy will probably impose new public health restrictions in the coming week to combat a new coronavirus surge, Health Minister Roberto Speranza said on Sunday. “The battle isn’t over. We don’t have the numbers seen in other European countries ... but we are in a phase of significant growth and I hope the country finds a spirit of unity,” Speranza told state broadcaster RAI. Possible new rules, which will be discussed at a Tuesday cabinet meeting, include obligatory mask-wearing, which is currently only mandatory in five regions, and limits on social gatherings. Italy counted 2,844 new cases on Saturday, the highest rate of new daily infections since April. Campania, home of Naples, saw more than 400 cases for the first time as fears loom that the virus is spreading especially rapidly in the south. Speranza added that the government is committed to avoiding a full lockdown. “A generalised lockdown would have a cultural, economic and social cost the country cannot afford,” he said (Reuters).

Japanese Fashion Icon Kenzo Takada Dies From COVID-19

Legendary Japanese fashion designer Kenzo Takada died on Sunday from COVID-19 in Paris at 81 years of age. Kenzo, who was born in 1939 in Himeji in Hyōgo Prefecture and moved to Paris in 1965, became world famous for both bringing Japanese designers to the attention of the Western world while also revolutionizing the global industry as he heralded in a new era of cultural fusion in clothing design. He opened his first store in the French capital in 1970, becoming a cult figure through his Japanese influences and flair for the theatrics in his early shows. After retiring in 1999 to pursue an art career, he went on to design opera costumes as well as the Japanese Olympic uniform for the 2004 games. In light of his cultural contributions spanning six decades of work in France, the French government awarded him the Legion of Honor in 2016 (NYT).

Bonus Read: “COVID-19 Sparks New East-West Divide in Germany—30 Years After Reunification,” (WSJ).

Asia-Pacific 

Solomon Islands Sees First Coronavirus Case

The coronavirus finally reached the Solomon Islands after a student tested positive upon returning home from the Philippines. Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare said on Saturday that the student had been isolated in Manila and tested negative three times before returning home on a repatriation flight to the South Pacific nation. He added that contact tracing is currently underway. The Solomon Islands was among the last nations in the world to credibly report zero coronavirus cases as well as the largest. The rest are all micro island nations also located in the Pacific (CNN Philippines). Other nations to record no cases have been met with skepticism abroad. As we have reported before, the situation in North Korea remains murky amid an official case count of zero in the highly secretive nation (UPI). Turkmenistan has also reported zero cases, although pervasive anecdotal evidence from the tightly-controlled country suggests that the disease is prevalent (RFE/RL).

Australia To Open Border to New Zealanders

New Zealanders will be allowed to fly to New South Wales and the Northern Territory from October 16 without mandatory self-isolation. "This is the first stage in what we hope to see as a trans-Tasman bubble between the two countries, stopping not just at that state and that territory,” said Australian Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack upon announcing the news. When the new policy goes into effect, it will mark the first time Australia has broadly opened its borders to a foreign nationality since March. It is unclear, however, if many Kiwis will take Australia up on the offer as New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has said that anyone who makes the trip must quarantine upon returning home. “Even if Australia, and we've acknowledged that they may, open up the borders one-way for New Zealanders to go in without quarantine, that doesn’t mean they won’t have to go into quarantine on return,” said Arden. “In fact, at this stage, they will,” she added (BBC, Axios). New Zealand has not seen any new coronavirus transmission in more than a week. It was announced on Monday that Auckland, the epicenter of the latest outbreak, will move to the lowest alert level following 10 days of no transmission within the last cluster. Arden has urged vigilance, however, after a three-month period of no local transmission in the country ended in August at the start of the latest outbreak (NZ Herald).

Bonus Read: “Data Shows Fewer Afghan Women Than Men Get Covid. That’s Bad News,” (NYT).

Middle East

Pilgrims Return to Mecca

Pilgrims returned to Mecca’s Grand Mosque on Sunday as Saudi authorities eased the nation’s restrictions for worship at Islam’s holiest site. Saudi state TV showed a video of what appeared to be less than 50 people circling the Kaaba at the center of the mosque, which is normally packed with thousands of pilgrims at all hours. Those who now wish to visit the mosque must now register online in advance. Groups limited to “20 or 25” people will be allowed at one time, according to the Saudi Hajj minister, with only citizens and residents allowed to visit. The daily limit is 6,000 pilgrims, around 30 percent of capacity. The continued reopening of the mosque is expected in phases, with a maximum of 15,000 pilgrims expected to be allowed on October 18. Muslims from abroad may be allowed back in as early as November 1, according to the Interior Ministry.

Performance of the Umrah, which refers to pilgrimages undertaken in Mecca outside the dates of the massive annual Hajj, have been suspended since March. The Hajj itself, which is mandatory for all Muslims who are able to perform at least once, was all but cancelled in July as only around 1,000 pilgrims already inside the kingdom were permitted to participate in an event that normally draws two million Muslims from around the world to Mecca. Since the pandemic’s start, Saudi Arabia has seen around 336,000 coronavirus cases and 4,850 deaths (Al Jazeera, Reuters).

U.S. Economy

Pandemic Reverses America’s Small Town Main Street Revival

The coronavirus pandemic has reversed the revival many American small town main streets had experienced over the past few years, according to a report Sunday in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The Journal notes, “Between 2015 and 2019, U.S. towns with populations of 25,000 or less invested more than $20 billion in public and private funds in their downtown cores and created more than 28,000 new businesses, according to data collected by the National Main Street Center from roughly 1,000 communities. Over that period the businesses created roughly 106,000 net new full-time and about 25,000 net new part-time jobs.” However, the pandemic is threatening those gains. Patrice Frey, chief executive of the National Main Street Center told the Journal, “The worry is that what we saw with Covid could set us back at least a generation.” The Journal profiles the dynamic in Emporia, Kansas, where main street vacancies had dropped below 10 percent in early 2020, having been as high as 40 percent in 1991. However, the Journal reports that many businesses have closed as a result of the pandemic and “one Emporia official estimates that 20 percent of its Main Street businesses are at risk.” Even those that have not closed are changing. The Journal writes, “Many of Emporia’s roughly 200 Main Street small businesses have added curbside pickup and delivery. Roughly 40 percent now have an online presence, double the portion before the pandemic, said Casey Woods, executive director of Emporia Main Street, an economic development agency.” 

U.S. Society

Restaurants Adapt to Enable Outdoor Dining as Cold Months Approach

Restaurants are adopting a range of new methods to help enable outdoor dining further into the cold weather months as the pandemic and government restrictions constrain their ability to offer indoor dining (WSJ). Many restaurants are installing heaters, and at least one is setting up an Igloo. The Wall Street Journal reports, “Many restaurateurs hope they can extend outdoor dining into roughly November, according to a National Restaurant Association survey of about 3,500 operators conducted between August 26 and September 1. That alone won’t offset the loss in business from busy dining rooms, owners and consultants say. Some 40 percent of those operators said they don’t expect to be in business in six months without additional government assistance.” According to Trevor Boomstra, a director in the restaurant, hospitality and leisure practice at AlixPartners LLP, told the Journal that now accounts for about 40 percent of restaurant revenue up from only a fifth before the pandemic. Currently 30 states as well as the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico restrict inside dining to some level. 

Bonus Read: “The NFL Learned the Same Lesson as Washington This Week,” (WSJ). 

Analysis & Arguments

The New York Times writes that the American people need the truth about the President’s condition (NYT).

David A. Graham writes on Trump’s failure to take coronavirus precautions with his own staff (Atlantic).

Garrett M. Graff writes that the U.S. is unprepared for the nightmare scenario of both the president and vice president being incapacitated (Politico).

The Wall Street Journal examines when employees might be able to access disability benefits for stress related issues (WSJ).

Joshua T. Schiffer argues that incomplete but speedy measures may be key in the effort against the pandemic (NYT).

Debbie Nathan explores how remote education is affecting a refugee child separated from her parents by Trump’s immigration policy (Intercept).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Narisara Murray and co-edited by Emily Schneider and Bennett Murray with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

Read previous briefs here and stream and subscribe to our weekly podcast here.

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