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Politics & Policy
Politics & Policy

Good morning from the WSJ Washington Bureau. We write this newsletter each weekday to deliver exclusive insights and analysis from our reporting team in Washington. Sign up.

By Miguel Gonzalez

 

What We're Watching

Biden Administration: President Biden is scheduled to depart the White House at 9:40 a.m. ET en route to Superior, Wis., where he will visit a brewery and deliver remarks on his economic agenda at 2 p.m.

Economy: The Commerce Department is set to release fourth-quarter gross domestic product data at 8:30 a.m. Read more below. 

Israel-Hamas War: A feud between Qatar and Israel over a leaked recording appearing to show Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu criticizing the Gulf state is threatening to upend fragile talks aimed at ending the war in Gaza.

 
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Politics

Donald Trump has raised money on his legal fights, seeing his support grow as he casts himself as a victim of prosecutors with political agendas. PHOTO: MICHAEL M. SANTIAGO/GETTY IMAGES 

Donald Trump's rivals were hoping for a courtroom knockout before the election, but time is running out.

The former president, who looks poised to sew up the Republican presidential nomination after his win Tuesday in New Hampshire, is proving less vulnerable on the legal front than many of his critics predicted, report Aruna Viswanatha and Sadie Gurman. His lawyers are having success maneuvering to delay any legal reckoning. And he has profited from good fortune in the two trials that pose his greatest political vulnerability: those on his efforts to reverse his 2020 election loss. All the while, Trump has raised money on his legal battles, seeing his support grow as he depicts himself as a victim of partisan prosecutors marshaling a crooked justice system to thwart his bid for a second term in the White House.

“Everything has broken his way in connection with feeding his political narrative of being a victim. He’s had some very lucky breaks.”

— Ty Cobb, a now critical former Trump lawyer

While former Trump is running on his economic record, his next term will feature a different agenda.

Then, as now, Trump’s strongest economic conviction is in protectionism, but that was overshadowed in his first term by a sweeping tax overhaul Republican allies muscled through Congress, writes Greg Ip. In his second term, no such tax plan is waiting in the wings. Instead, Trump wants to expand the trade war he started six years ago by hitting a range of trading partners with steep new tariffs. The tit-for-tat retaliation, higher costs, and supply-chain disruptions make for a less benign landscape than what prevailed before the Covid-19 pandemic hit in 2020.

Exclusive icon.Exclusive icon. WSJ News Exclusive
  • Trump’s Golf-Course Tax Break Could Reach $323 Million (Read)
  • Nikki Haley’s Stand Gets Under Trump’s Skin (Read)

President Biden secured the endorsement of the United Auto Workers, a politically influential union in the industrial Midwest.

UAW President Shawn Fain announced the union’s endorsement of Biden in his remarks to a UAW political conference in Washington ahead of the president’s address to the conference, reports Ken Thomas. Fain compared and contrasted Biden and Donald Trump’s policies, including the president’s decision to join a UAW picket line last fall. Biden, who is competing for working-class voters ahead of a likely election rematch with Trump, accepted a UAW baseball cap and told the union members he had been “damn proud” to join with the striking workers.

In other politics news...

  • Is Cornell Next? School’s Wealthy Donors Call for President’s Ouster (Read)
 

The WSJ’s Evan Gershkovich is being wrongfully detained in Russia after he was arrested while on a reporting trip and accused of espionage—a charge the Journal and the U.S. government vehemently deny. Follow the latest coverage, sign up for an email alert, and learn how you can use social media to support Evan.

 

Economy

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

The U.S. economy is forecast to have grown at a solid pace in the fourth quarter of 2023, capping a year in which recession fears were allayed.

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimate gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 2% in the fourth quarter from the third, reports Gabriel T. Rubin. That growth, adjusted for seasonality and inflation, would be a slowdown from the torrid 4.9% pace in the third quarter, but in line with prepandemic patterns. Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of economic output, is seen as the driver of continued growth. Moderating inflation and a still-tight labor market have boosted consumer confidence levels, according to some surveys.

In other economic news...

  • The Middle East Crisis Is Starting to Weigh on the Economy (Read)
  • Streetwise: The Fed Risks Getting Caught Up in Politics, Whatever It Does (Read)
 

World

▶️Video: Several proposals have been made to resolve the Israel-Hamas conflict, but disagreements over Gaza's governance are blocking progress. Here’s where the key players stand, and why they’re struggling to find common ground. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION: RYAN TREFES

Israel is building a one-kilometer buffer zone with Gaza, a plan that the U.S. has opposed since shortly after the war began.

To Israeli officials, the buffer zone is a critical security measure in their plan to demilitarize Gaza and assure Israelis that they can return safely to the areas near the border that were evacuated after the Oct. 7 attack that killed 1,200 people, report Dov Lieber, David S. Cloud and Anat Peled. U.S. officials warn that turning the border along the 25-mile-long Gaza Strip into a no man’s land would deepen Palestinian fears that Israel intends to occupy all or part of the crowded enclave, and make it harder to persuade Arab governments to help rebuild the territory after the fighting stops.

  • Israeli Military Engages in Grueling Urban Battle as Hostage Talks Regain Momentum (Read)

In other world news...

Exclusive icon.Exclusive icon. WSJ News Exclusive
  • Red Sea Attacks Push BHP to Divert Shipping (Read)
  • Conflict in Red Sea Prompts India’s Navy to Flex Its Muscles (Read)
  • Russian Military Plane Crashes Close to Ukraine, Killing 74 Aboard (Read) (▶️Video)
 

Business Regulation

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Exclusive icon.Exclusive icon. WSJ News Exclusive

The government has spent $12.82 billion in broadband internet subsidies. Almost a quarter of it has gone to one company.

Charter Communications received $3.01 billion through the Affordable Connectivity Program, or ACP, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of federal spending data, a larger slice than any of its competitors, report Ryan Tracy and Patience Haggin. Charter’s use of the program has come to the attention of regulators, who are examining some of its practices, people familiar with the matter said. Charter, owner of Spectrum cable, says its customers have been the program’s top beneficiaries because it has taken to heart Washington’s calls to connect every American to broadband.

In other regulatory news...

  • FAA Puts Limits on Boeing 737 Output, Clears Path for Grounded Jets to Fly (Read)
  • SPAC Mania Is Dead. The SEC Wants to Keep It That Way. (Read)
  • FDIC Lawyer Stayed on Paid Leave for Weeks After Child Porn Arrest (Read)
 

What We're Reading

  • Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) in a private Senate GOP meeting said effectively that time and the political will to pass a bipartisan immigration and border security compromise may have run out, and noted it was due to Donald Trump's campaign. (Punchbowl News)
  • Jeff DeWit, a former Arizona treasurer and Trump adviser, resigned as chair of the state GOP following the release of an audio recording in which he offered Kari Lake a lucrative job if she quits her U.S. Senate race.  (Arizona Republic)
  • Now nearing its fifth month, the war in Gaza seems far from an end, with 10 countries dragged into the conflict and a growing sense in Israel that the fighting has got bogged down. (The Economist)
 

What Do You Think?

Yesterday, we asked if Nikki Haley's continued presence in the GOP presidential primary could hurt the Trump campaign's pivot to the national contest.

I believe that Haley has every right to stay in this race. With support from traditional Republicans and moderate Independents and Democrats she should be able to not only hang in there but also grow momentum. I am bewildered by the level of support that the media continue to throw toward Trump. She needs to step up her attacks, and moderates need to step up their support of Haley.
–Julia Calamita, Virginia

Haley is right to stay in the race after losing the New Hampshire primary. She brought a large group of independents and moderate Democrats to the GOP competition. These people will be critical in November and may stay home on Election Day if the choice is a remake of 2020. She is well-funded and remains an attractive alternative to Trump who is facing many legal challenges. A significant number of Republican voters may change their choice if the potential nominee of the party is a convicted criminal who keeps insisting against all evidence that he won the 2020 general election.
–Jean-Claude Gruffat, New York

Haley probably will have little to no effect on the campaign. Trump will already be winning all the states and, to the Trump campaign, she will be little more than a slightly bothersome fly. The Trump campaign doesn't even need to try to campaign in primaries if they know they'll win almost all the states already.
–Chase Williams, Massachusetts

Responses have been condensed and edited.

 

About Us

This newsletter is written by the WSJ Washington bureau. Send feedback to politics@wsj.com. You can follow politics coverage on our Politics page and at @wsjpolitics on X.

 
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