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June 2, 2021 - Brief Issue 206

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

KFF Poll Indicates Biden’s 70% Vaccination Goal is Still a Possibility, But Vaccination Rates Lag in Some Parts of U.S. (Health & Science)

Moderna Applies for Full FDA Approval of Covid-19 Vaccine (Health & Science)

WHO Creates New Greek Alphabet Naming System for Coronavirus Variants (Health & Science)

Peru’s True Covid Death Toll is Triple its Official Count (Around the World)

Venezuela’s Vaccination Campaign Kicks Off with Long Lines and Confusion (Around the World)

Some EU Countries Begins Using Vaccine Certificates (Around the World)

Government Releases Fauci’s Early Pandemic Emails (U.S. Government)

Subscription Service Boom May Outlast Pandemic (U.S. Economy)

Memorial Day Weekend Brings Air Travel to Pre-Lockdown Levels, But Passengers More Disorderly (U.S. Society)

Not Everyone Understands That Vaccines Are Free, Leading to Hesitancy  (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 33,287,563 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 595,213 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 296,404,240 vaccine doses, with 50.8% of Americans having received their first vaccine dose and 40.9% fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 171,188,807 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 3,565,284 deaths.

KFF Poll Indicates Biden’s 70% Vaccination Goal is Still a Possibility, But Vaccination Rates Lag in Some Parts of U.S.

According to a Kaiser Family Foundation poll from May, President Biden’s target of having 70% of the adult U.S. population vaccinated by July 4 might be attainable, even after many experts abandoned the goal of herd immunity against Covid-19 (NYT). Among the 1,526 adults surveyed, 62% said they had received at least one coronavirus vaccine dose. In addition to that, 4% said they wanted to get vaccinated as soon as possible, and yet another 4% – representing a third of the survey participants planning to “wait and see” before getting the shot – said they had scheduled an appointment or would do so soon. Dr. William Schaffner, medical director of the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases, said these results show an attitude shift among American adults: “They’re getting that growing sense of comfort and reassurance that ‘people like me’ are getting vaccinated.” Latino adults and those without a college degree reported the largest uptick in vaccinations between April and May. 

Still, vaccination rates aren’t changing much among the 20% of American adults who report significant reluctance or refusal to get the vaccine. Regarding the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s recent announcement that vaccinated people can unmask in most situations, 85% of the poll’s unvaccinated participants said this did not change their interest in the shot – although CNN reports the announcement did, in fact, boost interest (CNN). 

Even though the KFF poll has inspired cautious optimism among some health experts, vaccination rates are unequal across the country, portending future regional outbreaks. Seven of the ten states with the lowest vaccination rates – where an average of 37.9% of people are at least partially vaccinated, compared to the 50.5% national average – are in the Deep South (WSJ). In the ten most vaccinated states, that rate is 62.6%. Experts say the South’s humidity and warm winter and spring temperatures have kept the virus from surging in recent months, as Covid-19 is less transmissible outdoors and in humid air, but hot summer temperatures might lead to an uptick in cases. Heat forces people indoors, where air conditioning reduces humidity and possibly recirculates virus-laden air. Across the U.S., low county-wide vaccination rates are correlated with limited internet access and lower income (CNN). "With too many things in health, we focus on the individual behavior without looking at the systems that either make it easy or not for someone to practice that healthy behavior," said Dr. Richard Besser, president and chief executive officer of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. 

Moderna Applies for Full FDA Approval of Covid-19 Vaccine

Moderna applied for full Food and Drug Administration approval of its coronavirus vaccine in adults 18 and older Tuesday, following in Pfizer and BioNTech’s footsteps (NYT). Over 151 million doses of the Moderna shot, which was authorized for emergency use in December 2020, have been administered in the U.S. so far. The company also plans on applying for emergency use in teenagers later this month. Full FDA approval of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines would allow these companies to sell their shots directly to consumers; plus, it would be easier for employers, schools, and the military to require vaccines. Some health officials say full approval would boost the public’s trust in the shot. 

WHO Creates New Greek Alphabet Naming System for Coronavirus Variants

The WHO introduced a new naming system for coronavirus variants Monday, assigning each variant a Greek letter based on the order of discovery (Reuters, NYT, CNN). The variant first discovered in the U.K., for example, is “Alpha,” while the variant traced to South Africa is “Beta.” Not only is this nomenclature meant to be simpler and more convenient than clunky scientific names like “B.1.1.7,” but the WHO hopes it will replace stigmatizing language. Experts say terms like “the Indian variant” and “the South African variant” lead to nationality-based profiling and aren’t even accurate, as some mutations appear to have emerged independently in different places. "No country should be stigmatized for detecting and reporting variants," said WHO epidemiologist Maria Van Kerkhove. Whether this new language will stick isn’t yet clear: "It would have been good to have thought about this nomenclature early," said Dr. Amesh Adalja of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. 

WHO Director-General Calls for Global Pandemic Treaty

In his closing remarks at the World Health Assembly in Geneva on Tuesday, World Health Organization director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus called for a global pandemic treaty – a framework that would help coordinate a multinational response to the next disease outbreak (NPR). The leaders of two dozen countries, not including the U.S., signed a letter in support of this idea in March. At the recent assembly, more than thirty countries expressed their support. Tedros explained that a treaty would promote data-sharing and collaboration, keeping small-scale outbreaks from exploding into a pandemic. "At present, pathogens have greater power than WHO,” he said. “They are emerging more frequently in a planet out of balance. They exploit our interconnectedness and expose our inequities and divisions. The safety of the world's people cannot rely solely on the goodwill of governments." Also on Tuesday, the WHO authorized China’s Sinovac coronavirus shot for emergency use, a move the organization hopes will help address vaccine inequality worldwide (WaPo). 

CDC Updates Masking Guidance for Summer Camps

In light of federal health officials’ new masking guidance and climbing vaccination rates among teens, the CDC released updated recommendations for summer camps (NYT). The CDC encouraged all future staff and campers to get vaccinated if possible, saying fully vaccinated camps can return to full capacity and drop almost all coronavirus-related measures, including masking. If not everyone is vaccinated, the CDC said, masks aren’t necessary in most outdoor settings, but other preventative measures like hand-washing, avoiding crowded indoor areas, and social distancing should stay in place. “We’re going to start to see more and more adolescents fully vaccinated by mid summer, so it is possible that camps could provide a camp experience for children who are fully vaccinated, and you could get back to the camp experience that was pre-pandemic: no masking, no distancing, and all the activities you would normally do,” said Erin Sauber-Schatz of the CDC. Over 2.5 million teens between 12 and 15 have received a first dose of the Pfizer vaccine, the only one authorized for this age group, in the past 18 days. Younger campers will not be vaccinated by the summer, as coronavirus vaccines have yet to be authorized for children. 

Concerning Hybrid Variant Emerges in Vietnam

A new coronavirus variant has been detected in Vietnam, where Covid-19 cases are on the rise following the country’s early success in containing the virus (NPR, WaPo). Though it doesn’t yet have a name, this new variant has mutations associated with the strains traced to India and the U.K., and has been found to spread and replicate quickly. “That the new one is an Indian variant with mutations that originally belong to the U.K. variant is very dangerous,” said Vietnam’s Health Minister, Nguyen Thanh Long. The ministry of health plans to release data on the new variant’s genome. Concerned that the variant is behind Vietnam’s recent surge, officials initiated a two-week lockdown of Ho Chi Minh City and are launching an aggressive Covid-19 testing campaign, despite limited testing resources. 

With Lab Leak Hypothesis Taking Center Stage, Some Experts Are Worried

As the U.S. sharpens its focus on the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic, another leading expert has added fuel to the fire, calling for a thorough investigation into the emergence of the novel coronavirus.  (WaPo). “There’s going to be Covid-26 and Covid-32 unless we fully understand the origins of Covid-19,” said Dr. Peter Hotez, professor of pediatrics and molecular virology and microbiology at Baylor College of Medicine, on Sunday. Hotez’s remarks come as the “lab leak theory,” which hypothesizes that the novel coronavirus leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China, gains traction, thanks to a previously unreleased intelligence report disclosed by the Wall Street Journal and President Biden’s call for a full probe into the theory (NPR, Nature). Yet many scientists remain unconvinced by the lab leak theory, saying more evidence is needed and the other top origin theory – which postulates natural, animal-to-human viral transmission – would be more consistent with past disease outbreaks. Other experts are concerned that the highly politicized, inflammatory nature of the lab leak debate will stymie efforts to investigate the pandemic’s origins and damage international relations. 

Bonus Read: “The Mini Lungs and Other Organoids Helping to Beat COVID,” (Nature).

Around the World

Peru’s True Covid Death Toll is Triple its Official Count

Peru said on Monday that its Covid-19 death toll is almost three times as high as it has officially counted, making it one of the hardest-hit nations in the world. The government said in a new report released on Monday that 180,764 people had died from Covid-19 through May 22 -- almost triple the official toll of about 68,000 people (Reuters). The report combined deaths from multiple databases and reclassified fatalities. The new number means that more people have died in Peru relative to its population than in Hungary or the Czech Republic, the countries with the highest official death tolls per person (NYT). Peru’s government said it will start publishing more accurate daily tallies based on new guidelines that were outlined in the report, but the updated numbers add to the political turmoil in the country just days before the second round of the closely watched presidential election.

Venezuela’s Vaccination Campaign Kicks Off with Long Lines and Confusion

Venezuela officially started its vaccination campaign over the weekend using vaccines provided by Russia and China. On Monday, hundreds of senior citizens and health workers -- two groups prioritized for immediate vaccination -- stood in long lines in hopes of getting vaccinated. The government of President Nicolas Maduro said it was unable to pay for vaccines due to U.S. sanctions, but announced in May that it had found the funds to enter the COVAX program. The health ministry has not provided any data about the number of people vaccinated so far, but Reuters data shows that just 1% of the population has received vaccinations (Reuters). 

Some EU Countries Begins Using Vaccine Certificates 

On Tuesday seven countries in the European Union started using a digital Covid certificate system that will facilitate travel within the bloc. Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Croatia and Poland made what is known as a digital green certificate available to citizens and began accepting them from travelers (NYT). The certificate records whether people have been fully vaccinated against the coronavirus, recovered from the virus, or tested negative within 72 hours. If at least one of those criteria is met, the holder of the certificate can move freely. The European Commission, the bloc’s administrative branch, said the system would be used in all 27 E.U. countries as of July 1 (Guardian). The European Commission is in talks with the U.S. about how to verify the vaccination status of American visitors as the long-term goal is to allow all people within the EU and visitors from outside the bloc to be able to have and use the certificates. The Commission has asked EU members to waive testing and quarantine demands for people who are vaccinated or recently recovered and to stop requiring quarantines for people with a negative test (NBC).

Over 5% of Congo’s Parliament Died from Covid-19

Covid-19 has now claimed the lives of 32 lawmakers in the Democratic Republic of Congo. That’s over five percent of its Parliament and, according to authorities there, a reflection of the overall toll the virus is taking on the country (NYT). “This pandemic is raging — decimating thousands of human lives and exploding in the process the rate of morbidity,” Jean-Marc Kabund, the first vice president of Parliament’s lower house, told lawmakers last week. Congo is Africa’s second-largest country has has a population of more than 86 million. It has reported just over 31,000 coronavirus cases and 786 deaths, but those numbers are an extreme underestimate of the true scale of the outbreak because testing levels remain low nationwide. As of Friday, about 23,000 people had been vaccinated, according to the health ministry. The country is struggling with logistical issues in its vaccination campaign as well as misinformation and vaccine hesitancy among the public.

U.S. Government & Politics

Government Releases Fauci’s Early Pandemic Emails

The Washington Post obtained a trove of Anthony Fauci’s emails from March and April 2020, providing a glimpse into the thinking of the director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in the early stages of the pandemic. The 866 pages of emails, which were obtained through the Freedom of Information Act, include correspondences with figures and entities ranging from foreign officials to the NFL.  “I was getting every single kind of question, mostly people who were a little bit confused about the mixed messages that were coming out of the White House and wanted to know what’s the real scoop,” Fauci said in a recent Post interview. “I have a reputation that I respond to people when they ask for help, even if it takes a long time. And it’s very time consuming, but I do” respond.

Many of the emails took a personal tone. George Gao, director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, on March 28 emailed Fauci to explain a quote in Science magazine where Gao seemed to criticize U.S. health authorities for not initially urging the mass use of masks.  “I saw the Science interview, how could I say such a word ‘big mistake’ about others? That was journalist’s wording. Hope you understand,” said Gao. Fauci replied: “I understand completely. No problem. We will get through this together.”

Gao later emailed Fauci offering his sympathies over threats from Trump supporters angered over social distancing requirements. “I saw some news (hope it is fake) that [you] are being attacked by some people. Hope you are well under such a irrational situation,” Gao wrote on April 8.  “Thank you for your kind note,” Fauci replied on April 11. “All is well despite some crazy people in this world.” U.S. congressman Fred Upton (R-Mich.) wrote to Fauci on April 10 with a question concerning hydroxychloroquine, a drug aggressively promoted as a coronavirus treatment by President Donald Trump despite slim evidence. Later, Upton told Fauci: “Keep being a science truth teller.”

The Post noted, however, that Fauci never directly criticized Trump in the emails, although he often accepted praise for challenging the president. Fauci also received communications from NFL officials seeking advice for the upcoming season, a request for a ride along from a Disney documentary production, and messages from a representative of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.  “I see you on TV almost every day, and although you continue to have considerable energy, I am seriously worried about you. The nation and the world absolutely need your leadership,” said Emilio Emini, a top executive at the Gates’ foundation. Fauci replied at 1:53 a.m.: “I will try to engage as much as I can given my current circumstances” (WaPo).

U.S. Economy

Subscription Service Boom May Outlast Pandemic

The pandemic-fueled expansion of the subscription business model may be permanent, the Washington Post reports. While the use of entertainment streaming subscriptions like Netflix and Hulu became a symbol of social distancing during the pandemic, analysts have been particularly intrigued by increased interest in the model within the service sector. Subscriptions proved to be a particularly important lifeline for small restaurants offering regular home delivery services in exchange for regular fixed payments. In addition to a meal, restaurant subscription services offering weekly service for a fixed rate may also offer ambiance that goes beyond the normal takeout fare. 

“Our meal packages come with music playlists for the night. If it’s French cuisine, we might include a French lavender candle and a French song play list," said Aaron Silverman, chef and owner of Rose’s Luxury in Washington D.C. “This is not an alternative to takeout. This is an alternative to going out. It’s an experience at home.”

While some have suspected that the return to normalcy will cause people to drop their recently-formed pandemic habits, many restaurants report retaining subscribers even as their dining rooms reopen. The boom in subscription services has also been noted in other sectors, with the travel website TripAdvisor launching a new $99 product with exclusive deals and customer service lines. 

“Post-Covid, we think the regular traveler is ready to embrace the subscription product,” TripAdvisor chief executive Stephen Kaufer said on a recent earnings call. “Subscription products in general have been doing quite well. … Many others have educated consumers on the notion of signing up for something on an annual basis.” Adam Levinter, author of “The Subscription Boom,” told the Post:  “We are shifting from a transactional economy to a relationship-driven one. A subscription is a recurring touch point with the customer. It’s that constant reminder that people have a relationship with the brand” (WaPo).

Employers May Offer Vaccine Incentives To Workers, Says Government Agency

Employers may issue incentives to encourage employees to receive vaccines, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) announced on Friday. According to its new guidelines, it is “not a disability-related issue” under the Americans With Disabilities Act for employers to inquire about vaccine status, although the responses must be kept confidential. Incentives, which are defined as either rewards or penalties, must not be so large as to be considered “coercive,” the EEOC stipulated, because “a very large incentive could make employees feel pressured to disclose protected medical information.” The EEOC did not clarify what it considers “coercive” (NYT).

Although the EEOC ruled in December that employers are permitted to require vaccinations among employees, many states have introduced laws intended to hamper the ability of companies to demand immunizations. Such restrictions have already been signed into law by the governors of Montana and Arkansas, while 84 bills total have been introduced nationwide on the state level (NASHP).

Pandemic Proves Transformative For Nation's Cannabis Industry

Cannabis retailers throughout the U.S. have reported a breakout year for the fledgling sector as shops reorientated toward a demanding customer base stuck at home, the New York Times reports. National sales hit $17.5 billion in 2020, a 46% increase from 2019. In Las Vegas, where legal recreational cannabis had largely been fueled by tourism, dispensaries have succeeded in shifting away from hard-partying visitors to the two million residents of the local metropolitan area. “Locals are very discerning — they want something they aren’t going to find on the black market,” said Nicolas MacLean, chief executive of the Las Vegas-based Aether Gardens cannabis producer. “Especially when you are stuck at home, you’re paying more attention to things like terpene and cannabinoid profiles, on top of THC levels, bud structure and aroma, which is information you get when buying from the legal market,” he added. 

The gambit worked, said MacLean, as Aether Gardens opened a new greenhouse to meet demand. Oswaldo Graziani Lemoine, the creative director of the Florida-based company Fluent Cannabis Care, said he noticed a similar trend in the Sunshine State. Although all 19 of his company’s locations remained opened, the firm nonetheless decided to incentivize delivery and curbside pickup by offering daily specials. The strategy paid off so well that he is envisioning drive-thru only locations even after the pandemic ends. “For us, it became less about the in-store experience and more about offering our customers deals and the ease of pickup,” he said. 

In Massachusetts, Canna Provisions chief executive Meg Sanders began replacing indoor browsing with telephone-based bud-tending in order to cater to an older customer base that prefers a guided shopping experience. “Our county is an internet desert, so we had to help people that didn’t have access or didn’t have the computer skills they might need to preorder online,” said Sanders, adding that her average customer is older than 50. The new approach worked so well that she is now opening a second location. “In our Lee store, preorders have become almost 100 percent of our business, so we bought more handsets and hired more people to answer the phones, and our revenue is up,” she said  (NYT).

U.S. Society

Memorial Day Weekend Brings Air Travel to Pre-Lockdown Levels, But Passengers More Disorderly

More than 1.95 million people flew on the Friday preceding Memorial Day, the highest level since early March 2020, amid an increase in disruptive passenger behavior. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has recorded 2,500 reports of passenger unruliness since January 1, including 1,900 cases of fliers refusing to wear masks. While the exact jump in reported incidents is unclear because the FAA previously did not track inflight disruptions, flight attendants have said that the level of misconduct in the sky is unprecedented. “We have just never seen anything like this,” Sara Nelson, the international president of the Association of Flight Attendants, said during an online meeting with federal aviation officials last Wednesday. “We’ve never seen it so bad,” she added. 

Both American and Southwest airlines have postponed the resumption of alcohol sales onboard after a 28-year-old woman punched a flight attendant in a viral video. The alleged assaulter, Vyvianna Quinonez, has been charged with battery causing serious bodily injury after the Southwest flight attendant lost two teeth. The federal mask mandate remains in place on airplanes even as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention declared last month that fully vaccinated individuals could generally stop wearing masks indoors. The rule is set to expire on September 13 (NYT). 

Not Everyone Understands That Vaccines Are Free, Leading to Hesitancy

Despite federal laws banning pharmacies and hospitals from charging money for coronavirus vaccines, fears of unexpected bills are driving people away from immunizations, reported the New York Times. “The conversations we have are like: ‘Yes, I know it’s good. Yes, I want it, but I don’t have insurance,’” said Ilan Shapiro, medical director of AltaMed, a community health network in Southern California. “We’re trying to make sure everyone knows it’s free,” he added. 

A Kaiser Family Foundation poll published last month showed that one third of unvaccinated individuals mentioned concerns over cost as a reason for reluctance. Liz Hamel, director of survey research at Kaiser, said it was possible that past experiences with the health care system may cause some people to believe that the promise of free vaccinations is too good to be true. The fears were especially pronounced among Hispanic and Black respondents.

Complicating matters were widely reported incidents of people being charged for coronavirus tests despite legislation mandating that insurers waive deductibles and copays. While stricter laws have minimized accidental vaccine charges to just a handful of cases that were all reversed, concerns persist.Paul Moser, a 52-year-old gas station cashier in New York State, told the Times that stories of charges for tests which ought to have been free have put him off getting a vaccine. “We were told by the legislators that all the testing was supposed to be free, and then surprise, it’s $150,” said Moser, who said he already has $1,200 in medical debt he is struggling to pay off. “I agree it’s important to get vaccinated, but I don’t have a sense of urgency around it,” he added (NYT).

West Virginia Vaccine Campaign To Offer Gun, Truck and Cash Drawings

West Virginia Governor Jim Justice (R) announced a vaccine incentive lottery on Tuesday that will see immunized winners receive guns, trucks, cash and other prizes. Prizes for the lottery, which will start on June 20 and last until August 4, include two new custom outfitted trucks, 10 new custom hunting rifles and shotguns, five lifetime hunting and fishing licenses and 25 weekend vacations at state parks. The biggest rewards will be a $1.588 million cash prize, which will be drawn on the first day, and $588,000 for the runner up. Youths between the ages of 12 and 25 will also be eligible to win one of two full undergraduate scholarships to a West Virginia state college of their choice.All West Virginians who have had at least one vaccine shot will be eligible.

Governor Justice also provided an update on the state’s coronavirus caseload, saying that its current count of 4,550 actives cases is the lowest since October 27, 2020. As of Tuesday, the amount of people aged 50 or older who have had their first shot is “well in excess of 75%,” he added (CNN, Office of the Governor). West Virginia will join a number of states that have already begun administrating lotteries to vaccinated residents. Ohio, which in May became the first state to award cash contest prizes to immunized people, reported a 55% jump in vaccinations for the 20 to 49 age group and a 94% jump in the 16 to 17 age group in the week after implementation. 

“We're attracted to them because we tend to overestimate small percentages,” Professor Kevin Bennett, who teaches psychology at Penn State, told NPR. “Therefore, we like the idea of a small chance at winning a very large number, a million dollars or more. We actually prefer that over a small reward that is just guaranteed,” he added  (NPR). Bonus Read: “Ohio’s Vaccine Lottery Scheme is Working — So Why Does It Bother Us?” (WaPo). 

Nashville Hat Shop Apologizes Over Holocaust-themed Anti-Vaccine Patch

A Nashville hat shop is apologizing amid backlash after it emerged on social media that the store was selling yellow Star of David patches bearing the words “NOT VACCINATED.” The merchandise, which resembles the patches that Nazi Germany forced Jews to wear during the Holocaust, initially came to light after the official HatWRKS’ Instagram account posted a photo of a smiling woman wearing the accessory. The image has since been deleted. 

Store owner Gigi Gaskins initially defended the post, stating on the store’s Instagram account on Friday: “people are so outraged by my post? but are you outraged with the tyranny the world is experiencing? if you don't understand what is happening, that is on you, not me." She backtracked, however, after at least four suppliers announced they were cutting ties with HatWRKS. She posted on Sunday: ”In NO WAY did i intend to trivialize the Star of David or disrespect what happened to millions of people. that is not who i am & what i stand for.” Among the hat companies to terminate business relations with HatWRKS was UK apparel company Kangol. Stating on its Instagram account that it had give Gaskins “the chance to change,” it added that “her further posts indicate to us that she is not sincere in her apology, nor has she removed offensive posts from her feed. We are permanently terminating hatWRKS Nashville as a customer of our brand effective immediately.”

Demonstrators gathered at the store over the weekend in protest. "We're here to protest hate and ignorance with regard to what she's doing in selling yellow stars that are a symbol of the greatest atrocity the world has ever seen, which is the loss of six million human beings," Nashville resident Ron Rivlin told local NBC affiliate WSMV outside HatWRKS on Saturday (CNN).

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The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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