Is this email difficult to read? View it in a web browser. ›

The Wall Street Journal ProThe Wall Street Journal Pro
Central Banking Pro Central Banking Pro

Consumer Confidence Rebounds After U.S.-China Trade Truce; Fed Minutes in Focus

By Vicky Ge Huang

 

The Federal Reserve held rates steady at its May policy meeting, emphasizing a wait-and-see approach. The meeting minutes are scheduled to be made public at 2 p.m. ET.

The economic mood among Americans has improved markedly after an earlier slump on trade-war fears, the Conference Board's May survey of consumers showed.

Canada and the U.S. are in negotiations for a new economic-and-security deal to replace the existing trade pact, according to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Elsewhere, the European Central Bank said Christine Lagarde is determined to complete her term as president of the central bank.

And the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates further Wednesday in a bid to stoke an economic recovery that some economists are warning is under threat.

 

Top News

The Fed Minutes Are Today. Here’s What to Watch.

Photo: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Market participants are hoping to glean how Federal Reserve officials are weighing mixed economic data, renewed inflation concerns, and political threats from the Trump administration from the minutes of the bank’s May policy gathering.

The Fed held rates steady at the May 6-7 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, emphasizing a wait-and-see approach. The meeting minutes, scheduled to be made public at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday, “should repeat the hawkish message from the May meeting and beyond,” wrote Andrew Hollenhorst at Citigroup in a note Tuesday.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed worry over tariff-induced inflation during a press conference that followed the meeting, but didn’t explicitly rule out rate cuts later this year. Since then, the economic data have been complicated: There are signs of slowing in parts of the economy, but not the kind that would prompt the Fed to move quickly.

The April consumer price index report showed a slowing of price growth, but core inflation remains persistent. While retail sales were lackluster, the labor market has so far been resilient. (Barron's)

 

U.S. Economy

Consumer Confidence Rebounds After U.S.-China Trade Truce

The headline index of the Conference Board's May survey of consumers jumped to 98, up from 85.7 in April, the first increase since November. Analysts had expected the gauge to hold steady from April. The turnaround accelerated after the U.S. and China agreed to reduce bilateral tariffs on May 12, said Stephanie Guichard, an economist at the Conference Board.

Wall Street Bets the Worst of Trump’s Trade War Is Behind It

Wall Street is betting that the worst of President Trump’s trade war is in the rearview mirror. The latest example came Tuesday, when news of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU powered a 2% increase in the S&P 500.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Tumble on Lower Aircraft Demand

Demand for durable goods sank in April, the month that President Trump announced his sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs, dragged by lower aircraft orders.

American Homes Are Shrinking. Why Are They Still So Unaffordable?

Homes have been getting smaller over the past few years. Why haven’t they been getting more affordable? Builders have started making more entry-level starter homes, but not tons of them.

Texas Manufacturing Contracts at Slower Pace as Uncertainty Eases

Texas manufacturing business activity continued to decline this month, but at a less steep pace, as firms grew more optimistic about the future as some uncertainty prompted by the Trump administration's tariff policy subsided. The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey's index for general business activity climbed to minus 15.3 in May, from minus 35.8 in April, the Dallas Fed said Tuesday. Although it was better than the minus 26.1 from a consensus of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal, it nevertheless marks a fourth straight month of contraction—when the share of firms reporting decreasing activity outweighs those reporting an increase.

 

Key Developments Around the World

Carney: Canada and U.S. Are in Talks on Economic and Security Deal

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said officials in Ottawa and Washington are engaged in intensive negotiations on a new bilateral economic-and-security deal, and it’s neither in President Trump’s or his interest to let talks drag on through the fall.

ECB Says Lagarde ‘Determined’ to Complete Her Term

The European Central Bank on Wednesday said that Christine Lagarde is determined to complete her term as president, which is scheduled to end in late 2027.

RBNZ Cuts Rates, Warns of Coming Slowdown in Global Growth

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, the latest in a string of cuts that started in mid-2024. The central bank kept the door open to cut interest rates further.

Tamed Australian Inflation Keeps Door Wide to RBA Cuts

Australia’s consumer inflation remained contained in April, keeping the door open to further interest-rate cuts over coming months. Inflation came in at 2.4% in April, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday.

Bank of Japan Posts Record Bond Loss as Interest Rates Rise

The Bank of Japan reported a record loss on its holdings of Japanese government bonds in the latest fiscal year, reflecting the impact of interest-rate increases. The Japanese central bank recorded an unrealized loss of 28.625 trillion yen, equivalent to $198.29 billion, on its JGB holdings in the year ended March, significantly wider than the Y9.434 trillion loss in the previous fiscal year. That marked its biggest loss since the central bank began valuing its JGB balance using the current method two decades ago. The bank has said that this doesn't affect policy decisions, as it intends to hold the bonds until maturity, meaning that any losses won't be realized. The BOJ has been gradually raising interest rates since last year, causing a rise in bond yields, which move inversely to prices. The yield on benchmark 10-year JGBs rose to 1.485% at the end of March from 0.725% a year earlier. (Dow Jones Newswires)

  • Japan Bonds Draw Weak Demand as Rise in Superlong Yields Sparks Concern
 

Forward Guidance

Wednesday (all times ET)

7 a.m.: MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
9 a.m.: Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
10 a.m.: Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
2 p.m.: Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published

Thursday

8:30 a.m.: 2nd estimate GDP
8:30 a.m.: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims 
8:30 a.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin participates in Housing Partnership Network fireside chat
10 a.m.: Pending Home Sales Index
2 p.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler speaks at Annual Federal Reserve Board Macro-Finance Workshop
4 p.m.: FRB San Francisco President Mary Daly participates in 'A Conversation on the Economy' event
8:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan speaks at Greater Waco Member Appreciation event

 

Research

Fed's Williams Says Central Banks Must Avoid Highly Persistent Inflation

Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams says central banks should respond strongly when inflation deviates from their targets as highly persistent inflation can become permanent. "We just have to be very aware that inflation expectations could shift in ways that would be detrimental," Williams says at a conference held at the Bank of Japan's headquarters in Tokyo. The whole curve of inflation expectations should be well-behaved, he adds. He didn't provide any clear hints on the Fed's near-term interest-rate decisions. — Megumi Fujikawa

Supreme Court's Fed Reasoning "Incoherent," Columbia Law Professor Says

The Supreme Court last week laid the groundwork to carve out the Fed from susceptibility to executive-branch oversight. But the justices' reasoning is "threadbare and incoherent," Columbia University law professor Lev Menand writes. The court wrote that the Fed is a "uniquely structured, quasi-private entity that follows in the distinct historical tradition of the First and Second Banks of the United States" to back its logic that Fed officials' for-cause removal protections may be constitutional. Menand argues that the Fed is fact neither uniquely structured, nor quasi-private, nor in the historical traditional of the First and Second banks. "The more one looks at the Federal Reserve Board, the harder it is to escape the conclusion that there is no way to distinguish the Board from the other multimember commissions on which it is based," Menand writes. — Matt Grossman

 

Basis Points

  • President Trump’s media company plans to raise about $2.5 billion from institutional investors to buy bitcoin, the latest entanglement of his private business ventures and the cryptocurrency markets.
  • Germany’s unemployment numbers rose this month, as major firms intensify plans to rejig their workforces in an uncertain economic environment.
  • Taiwan's exports have remained strong so far this year, but that resilience is set to fade in the second half, officials warned as they revised growth estimates. Taiwan updated its GDP growth for January-March to 5.48% from the 5.37% in late April. (Dow Jones Newswires)
 

About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.

 
Desktop, tablet and mobile. Desktop, tablet and mobile.
Access WSJ‌.com and our mobile apps. Subscribe
Apple app store icon. Google app store icon.
Unsubscribe   |    Newsletters & Alerts   |    Contact Us   |    Privacy Notice   |    Cookie Notice
Dow Jones & Company, Inc. 4300 U.S. Ro‌ute 1 No‌rth Monm‌outh Junc‌tion, N‌J 088‌52
You are currently subscribed as [email address suppressed]. For further assistance, please contact Customer Service at pro‌newsletter@dowjones.com or 1-87‌7-975-6246.
Copyright 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.   |   All Rights Reserved.
Unsubscribe