Investors will eye inflation data for January this morning, with analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal’s poll forecasting a fall in both headline and core inflation figures. Economists forecast consumer-price growth slowed to an annual pace of around 2.5%, but some aren’t ruling out a hotter reading as prices have a habit of spiking in January. Elsewhere, the Bank of Russia on Friday lowered its key interest rate for a sixth consecutive meeting of its policymakers, but continues to restrain a slowing economy as the country's costly war on Ukraine approaches its fourth anniversary. And Bank of Japan policy board member Naoki Tamura floated the possibility that the bank could soon declare that its inflation target has been achieved.

Consumer inflation likely slowed in January, economists forecast. The CPI likely gained 2.5% in January from a year earlier, according to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. On a core basis, excluding volatile food and energy prices, a 2.5% rise is also forecast. In December, the year-on-year figures were 2.7% for the headline number and 2.6% for the core. While the jobs picture has taken on more urgency for the Federal Reserve in recent months, inflation remains a big political issue. Voters continue to focus on an affordability crisis that grew out of the pandemic. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is due to release January's CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The Reserve Bank of Australia continues to warn that the battle to lower inflation will take "some time," raising the specter that interest rates will need to be increased further in coming months. "The recent acceleration of demand growth beyond our estimate of trend, at a time when the economy is already showing signs of being capacity constrained, means we expect the labor market will remain tight and inflation will remain above target for some time," said Sarah Hunter, the RBA's chief economist, at a business conference Thursday. (DJN)

• Key RBA Board Vacancy Filled With Policy Expert Preston

Canada requires a combination of "courage and patience" for the economy to emerge from the current state of turbulence to more solid and prosperous footing, says the Bank of Canada's No. 2 official. Carolyn Rogers, the central bank's senior deputy governor, says, for instance, Canadian firms need to pick up the pace of investment, especially in the area of artificial intelligence. During a question-and-answer session at a University of Toronto conference, she said AI would help lift the economy's speed limit, or potential output--which is the level of growth an economy can record before triggering inflationary pressure. (Dow Jones Newswires)

As more Americans fall behind on their mortgage and credit-card payments, a new report sheds light on how financial stress is spreading beyond the lowest-income borrowers. While credit-counseling agencies typically help low-income people restructure their debt and avoid bankruptcy, now people who earn higher incomes have been walking through their doors, according to the National Foundation for Credit Counseling.

8:30 a.m.: CPI
8:30 a.m.: Real Earnings
6 p.m.: Deadline for passage of new funding bill for U.S. Department of Homeland Security

U.S. Presidents Day / Washington's Birthday. Financial markets closed

Enormous supply of investment-grade corporate bonds could cause overall spread levels to widen, potentially creating opportunities for investors to buy them at cheaper levels, Thornburg Investment Management's Christian Hoffmann says in a note. "This is positive from an investment perspective as we can take advantage not necessarily in the specific issuers but more broadly as additional supply can enforce all issuers to offer more compensation to participate," the head of fixed income says. The majority of issuance and supply is concentrated in the investment-grade market, which continues to be backed by high-quality companies, he says. — Emese Bartha

• U.S. jobless claims fell last week as employers held onto their staff at stable levels. The number of people who filed for unemployment benefits fell to 227,000 in the week through Feb. 7, down from 232,000 a week earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday.
• The European Union’s exports to the U.S. held up last year despite the higher tariffs imposed by President Trump, but those increased duties pushed Chinese businesses to seek and find new customers in the bloc.
• Switzerland’s annual rate of inflation was unchanged in the first month of 2026, reinforcing expectations that the Swiss National Bank will keep rates on hold at its next meeting.

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ’s global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Vicky Ge Huang in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to vicky.huang@wsj.com.