The Intelligent Investor
|
Investing With Your Head, Not Your Heart
|
|
|
Good morning.
So far this week, the markets are mostly tranquil, giving us all a welcome breather after the seemingly constant drumbeat of news about GameStop and other meme stocks, the surge in cryptocurrencies and the boom in nonfungible tokens attached to videos and digital art.
|
|
|
In last week's newsletter, I asked:
When you feel negative emotions like anger or fear start to disrupt your ability to think calmly, what do you do to regain your mental composure? Did the 2000-02 Nasdaq crash, the 2008-09 financial crisis or last year's pandemic panic teach you some useful guidelines on how to restore balance and make calm investment decisions?
Dozens of readers responded. Here are some of my favorites:
-
To calm my emotions down within markets, I take a 30,000-foot view and realize that I'm only 20, I have a long time horizon to reverse my losses and it's normal to have intraday volatility....Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world, so I take advantage of that and that keeps me calm....Staying persistent, positive and patient are key to investing....I started retail trading when I was 15, and eventually stopped when it was too taxing and pointless. Now...I let my money work for me, not the reverse, as a student....We all have heightened emotion when it comes to our money. It's natural; it means we care. —Mia Gradelski, New York
-
When stocks declined last year and in 2008-09, I actually got excited. My cash was highly valued and stocks were on sale. They're two sides of the same coin, but it highlights and focuses my mind on the positives as others fret over the negatives. —Shawn Conner
-
I think some fear is a constant when you are invested....When I get particularly worried about what the market may do, I look at how balanced my portfolio is, and sometimes chat with my financial adviser for a more objective look at the markets and what the worst possible outcome could be...and then I can go back to not looking at my investments frequently. Last year’s pandemic panic looked like an opportunity for me to buy a few stocks that I had been watching for some time. And so far, while some of them are doing better than others, I’m pleased with the decision to buy at that time. —Patience Armstrong, Long Valley, NJ
-
When emotions like this pop up and get in the way of me getting things done, I’ll turn to my digital journal to type them out. I’ve found that just getting things out of my head and onto paper, or the screen, helps me process them and be more objective with my thinking. I set a timer, and once it's up, I get back to work—calm and clear-eyed. —Peter McDermott
-
I've always found that exercise is the best cure. Take out the frustration on the weights, treadmill, basketball court, etc., and then return home with a clear mind. Then take advantage of good buying opportunities when others are fearful. —Timothy Petersen
-
When the going gets tough and fear and worry set in, I remind myself what my dad told me: “The U.S. economy is big and will right itself—quickly or slowly, but it will do it. It always has. And when it does, as long as the free market exists, the stock market will recover.” That long view has helped [us] weather everything the market has thrown at us in the last 20 years. —Bev Laumann
-
The first [step] is to take some time. Set it aside for a day or two...return to review and assess what I know and don't know at a later time. This always brings the facts forward. The second is to prepare myself for how I will deal with regret or a feeling of loss...I need to do my research and set parameters for making a decision. I will "miss" an opportunity every once in awhile, but I know how to let myself feel the regret, and then focus on what I have learned or is useful from that situation....Limiting attachment and regret is key to building up the knowledge base I need to actually make a strong decision. —James Gathje
Thanks to you all for those great thoughts. They remind me that the word reflection comes from the Latin reflectere, "to bend back (or backwards), to turn away," from re- ("back") + flectere ("to bend," from which we derive such words as flexible and genuflect).
To reflect is both to be flexible about something and to turn away from it—an apt description of how we should make decisions about investing.
|
|
|
Emil Nolde, "Lake Lucerne" (ca. 1931), photo by Allie Caulfield via Creative Commons
|
|
|
Be well and invest well,
Jason
Did a friend forward this email? Sign up here.
|
|
|
|
|
What was the first investment you ever made? I'd love to hear what it was, how you found it, when (or whether) you sold it, how it worked out and what lessons you learned. (If you're curious, you can read about my first investment here.)
Just hit reply to this email to share your thoughts.
|
|
Electric Dreams Don’t Always Come True
|
|
|
This past weekend, I looked at one of today's hottest fields for technology startups, the electric "air taxis" that would shuttle passengers to and from airports and out of earthbound traffic jams. It turns out that electric taxis have been tried before, in the first decade of the 20th century, and their trajectory then may have some lessons for investors in the emerging industry now. You can read that column, "What Came Before the $10 Billion Bet on Flying Taxis," here.
The previous columns in our "Back in Business" series on financial history are here.
|
|
|
If you're interested in special-purpose acquisition companies, those "blank-check" firms that have taken the markets by storm in recent months, have we got a newsletter for you. Edited by our ace SPACs reporter Amrith Ramkumar, it will go out on occasion to subscribers of the WSJ Markets newsletter. You can sign up here.
|
|
Some Insights You Shouldn't Miss
|
|
|
|
Claude Raguet Hirst (1855-1942), "Still Life with Bowl," Museum of Art and Archaeology, University of Missouri
|
|
|
Here are some of the best things I found over the past week outside The Wall Street Journal:
Here are some of the best things I found recently in The Wall Street Journal:
|
|
|
Have a question you'd like me to answer? Want to weigh in on what you just read? Got a tip on something that I or my colleagues should investigate? Itching to tell me I'm wrong about something?
Just reply to this email and I'll see your note. Don't forget to include your name and address.
Image credit: Mary Cassatt, "The Letter" (ca. 1890), Art Institute of Chicago
|
|
|
Q:
|
You're criticizing bitcoin investors for getting angry when you criticize them, claiming they're probably insecure in their unfounded opinions and closed off to information that contradicts their beliefs....My question is: How do you know you're not doing the same thing as the investors you criticize? What would it take for you to change your beliefs about index investing? What if bitcoin really is democratizing the financial sector but people like you and me are writing it off since it contradicts our beliefs on investing? —Jacob Carmichael
|
|
|
A:
|
First, a quick review for anyone who didn't see what Jacob is asking about. In last week's newsletter, I mentioned the irate responses of some people who own bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies to my March 5 column that spelled out the pros and cons of earning income by lending out such digital assets.
As I wrote:
Some readers responded as if I had recommended cleaning your ears with a nail gun.
My mailbox filled up with emails telling me that I am "ignorant" or "lazy" and that the column was "stupid" or "ridiculous." One said "You're pathetic" and compared me, in a vivid phrase my editors won't allow me to show here, to soiled underwear.
That got me wondering: When investors get so angry at anyone who questions their approach, what should that tell us?
Also, as I wrote last November:
If you believe in something so deeply that no amount of contradictory evidence could persuade you that you are wrong, that’s not belief. It’s religious faith. That belongs in your place of worship, not in politics and certainly not in your portfolio.
So how do I know that my own mind isn't closed to anything that could ever prove me wrong?
I don't.
One of the most dangerous mental pitfalls is what psychologists call the bias blind spot: our persistent belief that we are less biased than other people. You know what's in your heart of hearts; I know what I was thinking when I made a judgment or decision. But you can't know what's in my heart or mind, and I can't know what's in yours.
So, when we think about our own beliefs, we have a fuller picture than when we think about someone else's. That makes it easier to imagine than they are biased when we aren't.
That's probably an illusion, though. You could be much less biased than I am; in fact, everyone could be.
Recognizing this, I try to:
-
frame the future as a range of probabilities rather than certainties;
-
seek out opinions, data and analysis from people who disagree with me;
-
be able to state their side of the argument as well as they can;
-
welcome their feedback and criticism, which is much more useful than praise from people who agree with me;
-
follow people who are either much younger or older than I am, in hopes that they will see what I am missing.
I've written repeatedly about how index funds can go wrong, by the way, and I'm excited about the potential of blockchain technology to transform business (although it isn't clear to me which cryptocurrency will prevail or whether their current prices will turn out to be justified).
After all that, I still could be in the dark, but I hope the light will have a chance of getting through.
|
|
|
|
Fanny Churberg, "Moonlight" (1878), Finnish National Gallery via Wikimedia Commons
|
|
|
|
Every man carries with him through life a mirror, as unique and impossible to get rid of as his shadow....We shall be judged, not by the kind of mirror found on us, but by the use we have made of it, by our riposte to our reflection.
— W.H. Auden
|
|
|