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June 15, 2021 - Brief Issue 213

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Novavax More than 90% in Effective in U.S. Trial (Health & Science)

New Case Counts Starting To Diverge Regionally Amid Varying Levels of Vaccination in U.S. (Health & Science)

WHO: Virus is Quicker Than Vaccines (Health & Science)

England’s Reopening Postponed (Around the World)

Thailand’s Vaccination Drive Disrupted (Around the World)

Germany Considers Loosening Mask Guidance (Around the World)

Newsom Outlines California Tourism Restart Plan As State Set To Reopen (U.S. Government & Politics)

Former FDA Commissioner To Join Moderna-Linked Company (U.S. Economy)

Younger Hispanics More Likely To Die From Covid-19 Than Other Ethnic Groups (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 33,474,758 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 599,945 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 374,398,105 vaccine doses, with 52.5% of Americans having received their first vaccine dose and 43.7% fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 176,273,244 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 3,812,055 deaths.

Novavax More than 90% in Effective in U.S. Trial

On Monday Novavax Inc said its Covid-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective in a large late-stage U.S.-based clinical trial (Reuters). The study included nearly 30,000 volunteers in the U.S. and Mexico. Novavax could file for emergency authorization in the U.S. as early as the third quarter of 2021. The vaccine is protein-based, which is a conventional vaccine approach that uses purified pieces of the virus to spur an immune response. Similar vaccines exist for whooping cough and shingles. 

Novavax said that its vaccine is effective against the predominant variants that are circulating, including the variants first identified in Brazil, South Africa, and India. "Practically speaking, it's very important that the vaccine can protect against a virus that is wildly swinging around" in terms of new variants, said Dr. Gregory Glenn, head of Novavax’s research and development. Side effects of the vaccine were generally mild and included headache, fatigue, muscle pain. 

New Case Counts Starting To Diverge Regionally Amid Varying Levels of Vaccination in U.S.

A Washington Post analysis has found that many places in the U.S. with low vaccination rates are seeing their coronavirus case counts rising or holding steady as other parts of the country continue to see a sharp drop in daily new infections.

The newest data presents a departure from the situation observed as recently as 10 days ago, when vaccination rates still did not yet accurately predict case count on a local level. But as the gulf in vaccination continues to expand between communities that have largely embraced immunizations and those that have not, worse outcomes for the latter are becoming apparent in statistics. The Post analysis compared the daily new case counts in more than 100 counties with fewer than 20% of residents vaccinated with more than 700 counties where at least 40% had received jabs. 

Missouri’s Polk County, where less than 25% of the population is vaccinated, closed its only mass vaccination site in early May due to lack of demand. The county recently saw almost 90 new infections in one week, marking an increase following several months of decline. “We are going to continue to see what we are seeing as far as our daily case count,” said Michelle Morris, the country’s public health administrator, who attributed the rise to the end of the school year on May 21 along with Mother’s Day gatherings. “Unfortunately, we are going to see increased hospitalization, and it worries me we may see additional deaths related to it as well,” she added. 

In Wyoming’s Sweetwater County, vaccination appears to have plateaued at around 25%, with authorities unsure of how to budge the number upward amid widespread anti-vaccination sentiment. The county has seen Wyoming’s steepest rise in cases, with the state itself leading the nation in new infections. Two people died of Covid-19 last week, with eight emergency room patients diagnosed with the virus in a single night. 

“As much as the general public figures covid is done, gone and over with, and they don’t want to hear about it, the health department wishes the same. It’s not so,” said Jean Stachon, Sweetwater County’s health officer. Stachon said that she did not know what she might be able to do in the future to mitigate a new outbreak. Under legislation approved at the Wyoming state house in March, her powers to implement new public health measures are heavily restricted.  “For me to try to say we need to go back and mask or do anything like that, I would almost think I need police protection,” she added (WaPo).

Bonus Read: “Scientist Opens Up About His Early Email to Fauci on Virus Origins,” (NYT).

WHO: Virus is Quicker Than Vaccines

The World Health Organization warned on Monday that Covid-19 was outpacing vaccine production and inoculation campaigns and said that the G7’s vow to share a billion doses with poorer nations was not enough to end the pandemic (AFP). "We welcome the generous announcements about donations of vaccines and thank leaders... but we need more, and we need them faster," World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus in a statement Sunday. Health experts have said that for the pandemic to end, 70% of the world’s population needs to be vaccinated. As we covered in yesterday’s brief, the Group of Seven industrialized powers tried to address the disparity over vaccine access during the summit in England over the weekend by pledging to donate shots to poorer nations. According to the World Bank, the imbalance between doses administered in the G7 countries versus low income countries is 73 to one.

Around the World

England’s Reopening Postponed 

England had been planning to scrap all coronavirus restrictions on June 21 following the speedy and successful vaccination rollout, but on Monday Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that the reopening would be postponed by four weeks (NYT). The reopening day, called “freedom day” by the tabloids, was supposed to be the day that restaurants and pubs could reopen fully without limiting capacity and nightclubs and theaters could start operating again. But with the Delta variant spreading across the country new cases are averaging 8,000 per day and doubling every week. Hospital admissions are also rising. About four-fifths of adults in Britain have received one dose and more than half have received the second dose, but those with only one dose remain susceptible to the Delta variant, more so than to earlier variations of the virus, according to scientists. Cases are also surging among younger, unvaccinated people. Watching even a well-vaccinated country struggle to overcome a variant of the coronavirus has alarmed health officials around the world and caused lawmakers in Britain to criticize Johnson’s handling of the pandemic.  

Thailand’s Vaccination Drive Disrupted

Thailand’s coronavirus vaccination campaign was supposed to be kicking into high gear in June, with health officials saying that about 70% of the population would be inoculated by the end of the year (NYT). But now, delays have made that goal seem nearly impossible. On Sunday night, at least 20 hospitals in Bangkok announced that previously confirmed appointments had been cancelled but did not give a reason for the cancellations beyond saying the vaccines were delayed (Guardian). The delay comes right as Thailand is dealing with a second wave of the virus and thousands of new cases are recorded each day. As of Monday, only about 3% of the population had been fully inoculated. 

Germany Considers Loosening Mask Guidance

Infection rates in Germany have been steadily falling for weeks but masks are still obligatory nearly everywhere -- from crowded sidewalks to public transit to indoor shopping malls. Depending on the state, rules are even more stringent with medical-grade masks required in some instances. In Berlin, for example, an FFP-2 medical mask is required in grocery stores. But on Monday, Jens Spahn, the country’s health minister, said that states could start setting their own policies, at least for outdoor areas soon (NYT). “With the falling infection rates, we should proceed in stages: In a first step, the mask requirement outside can be dropped in general,” Mr. Spahn said in an interview with the Funke group of newspapers. Germany has recently reopened restaurants and beer gardens for outdoor dining, and most states have started opening indoor dining — but only for those who can show that they have been vaccinated or tested negative in the past 24 hours. Museums are also now open to visitors.

U.S. Government & Politics

Newsom Outlines California Tourism Restart Plan As State Set To Reopen

California Governor Gavin Newsom on Monday outlined a plan to jump start the state’s tourism sector one day before the Golden State is set to fully reopen. 

“This was a $145-billion-a-year industry,” he said in an interview with the New York Times on Monday following a press conference on the tourism sector at San Francisco’s Ferry Building. “No other state comes close, including Florida, so there’s no state that has more to gain in terms of fully reopening.”

Most coronavirus-related public health restrictions are set to end on Tuesday amid California’s high vaccination rate and low case count. Fully vaccinated people will no longer be required to wear masks except on public transport and in a few other specific settings.

To help boost the tourism sector, California has invested $95 million into an expansion of its Visit California marketing campaign. The goal is to recover some 300,000 jobs in an industry that lost almost half of its pre-pandemic work force of 1.2 million people. California will also continue to support workers in the tourism economy through sick leave, extended workers’ compensation and unemployment insurance, said the governor (NYT).

U.S. Economy

Former FDA Commissioner To Join Moderna-Linked Company

Stephen Hahn, who served as the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) commissioner under former President Donald Trump, will join a venture capital firm closely linked to the vaccine developer Moderna. Hahn, who led the FDA from December 2019 through the end of the Trump presidency, was a prominent member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force during the first 10 months of the pandemic. 

He will now serve as Chief Medical Officer at Flagship Pioneering, which seeded Moderna at its inception more than a decade ago. The two firms maintain close ties, with Flagship CEO Noubar Afeyan serving as Moderna’s chairman. 

“In my career I have been a doctor and a researcher foremost and it is an honor to join Flagship Pioneering in its efforts to prioritize innovation,” Hahn said in a statement.

It is not uncommon for high-ranking political appointees at the FDA to join the private sector upon leaving office. Former Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, who preceded Hahn, joined the board of Pfizer after leaving the government in 2019. Robert Califf, who served as Trump’s first head at the FDA, is now an advisor at the Google health innovation spinoff Verily. 

While Hahn’s appointment does not appear to be in violation of any law, it nevertheless raised concern that it could create the perception of a conflict of interest in the country’s socially-fraught pandemic landscape. Jeff Hauser, director of the Revolving Door Project at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, told the Washington Post that he was concerned that Hahn’s new appointment could fuel anti-vaccination conspiracy theories.

“You want to avoid even the suggestion of a financial payoff for vaccine approval,” he said. Moderna, which was founded in 2010, had never released a commercial product prior to its coronavirus vaccine. It has since become a regular target of conspiracy theories falsely linking its vaccine’s approval to influential personalities ranging from Anthony Fauci to Bill Gates (WaPo). 

Companies Weigh Options in Inducing Employee Vaccinations

U.S. employers are contemplating whether it is best to coax, bribe or mandate employees to receive vaccines, reported the New York Times. With offices beginning to ditch remote working in favor of pre-pandemic commutes, few firms want to outright require employees to receive vaccinations over fears of lawsuits, political upheaval and difficulties over enforcement. Simultaneously, companies also fear the prospect of workplace outbreaks sending employees back home. 

Some companies are paying employees to receive shots. Walmart is offering $75 to any worker who presents proof of vaccination, while United Airlines Is offering a bonus worth as much as 13 hours of pay to pilots who have been fully immunized. 

Goldman Sachs appeared to be taking a more coaxing approach by demanding last week that employees report their vaccination status within two days. Last month, the company told employees that they should “make plans to be in a position to return to the office” by June 14 in the United States and June 21 in Britain. Nonetheless, the company has stopped short of requiring vaccinations as a condition for returning to the office. 

Many employers have yet to establish a clear vaccination policy. According to a survey of 770 companies conducted by the human resources software company Tinypulse, around a third of companies have yet to present clear rules or procedures related to immunizations (NYT).

Bonus Read: “Anti-Vax Groups Rack Up Victories Against Covid-19 Push,” (Politico).

U.S. Society

Younger Hispanics More Likely To Die From Covid-19 Than Other Ethnic Groups

The New York Times reports that in addition to being the U.S. racial or ethnic group with the highest Covid-19 mortality rate, younger Hispanic Americans have also faced the worst odds in surviving coronavirus infections. The pandemic has thus been especially catastrophic for Hispanic families as younger victims of Covid-19 are more likely to be breadwinners or parents of small children. 

“It matters how old you are when you die, because your role in society differs,” said Dr. Mary Bassett, director of the François-Xavier Bagnoud Center for Health and Human Rights at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, whose own research studying Hispanic and Black American Covid-19 deaths showed that both groups lost three to four times as many years of their lives compared to their White counterparts. 

“When you die young, you may be a critical breadwinner for your family,” said Bassett. “You may have dependent children. And we know that losing a parent is not good for children and has an impact on their future development and psychological well-being.”

According to an analysis conducted by the Times of California’s Santa Clara County coronavirus fatality statistics, Hispanics aged 39 and under died from Covid-19 at a rate of 6.8 per 100,000 residents, compared to just .4 per 100,000 among Whites. While the racial discrepancies were visible across all age groups, the under 39 range had the starkest contrast. Hispanic Californians were also found to have been eight times as likely to live in a “high exposure-risk household,” which are defined by scientists as having at least one essential worker living in a home with fewer rooms than inhabitants.

“The stereotype is that Latino families care about family more, but it’s not really about that — it’s about the need to pool together resources,” said Zulema Valdez, a professor of sociology at the University of California, Merced. “There’s a whole web of a social safety net that the family is providing.”

Such households are also especially vulnerable to economic hardship when a member dies, Valdez added. “They’re immediately one paycheck away from homelessness,” she said. “Everybody knows someone who has died, or multiple people who have died, and everyone is figuring out how to compensate for the roles and duties that are no longer being done by those people,” (NYT).

Georgia Woman Shot Dead Over Mask Dispute

Police arrested a man accused of fatally shooting a woman in a Decatur, Georgia grocery store following an argument over the suspect’s mask. Victor Lee Tucker, Jr., 30, was at the checkout line of Big Bear Supermarket when he got into an argument with the cashier related to his mask, according to the Georgia Bureau of Investigation. Tucker left the store and returned moments later with a handgun at 1p.m. before shooting the cashier, who was later pronounced dead at the hospital. 

“There was some confrontation, argument — I'm not sure exactly what — in reference to the wearing of masks, at which time the subject pulled out a weapon and shot the cashier," said DeKalb County Sheriff Melody Maddox at a news conference.

After the initial shooting, an off-duty reserve deputy present at the store drew his gun in response. Both men were injured in an exchange of gunfire. Another cashier was treated at the scene with a minor grazing wound. The identities of the victims have not yet been released (AP).

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The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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