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June 23, 2021 - Brief Issue 218
The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.
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Top Headlines
White House Officials: We Will Likely Miss July 4th Vaccination Target (Health & Science)
Countries that Relied on Chinese Vaccines Now Battling Outbreaks (Health & Science)
AstraZeneca Says Vaccine Effective Against Variants, Cites Study (Health & Science)
Cases Climb Across Africa (Around the World)
European Nations Race Against Delta Variant (Around the World)
House Democrats Push Eviction Ban Extension (U.S. Government & Politics)
Frontloaded Nature of Stimulus Raises Concern About Economy (U.S. Economy)
Report: Traffic Deaths Increased During Pandemic; Show a Racial Disparity (U.S. Society)
Health & Science
There have been 33,565,288 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 602,462 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 379,446,660 vaccine doses, with 53.5% of Americans having received their first vaccine dose and 45.3% fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 179,164,193 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 3,882,531 deaths.
White House Officials: We Will Likely Miss July 4th Vaccination Target
On Tuesday, White House and federal health officials said that the U.S. is unlikely to hit the Biden administration’s target of having 70% of Americans having received at least one shot of vaccine by July 4th (Politico, WaPo). The projected shortfall comes as the U.S. struggles to vaccinate younger Americans, an issue we covered in yesterday’s brief. Politico notes, “The Biden administration now estimates that it will hit the 70 percent threshold only for those aged 27 and up by July 4.” White House Coronavirus Coordinator Jeff Zients said the country would need “a few extra weeks” to hit the target among younger Americans. He provided a revised target, saying, “We will hit 160 million Americans fully vaccinated no later than mid-July.”
Countries that Relied on Chinese Vaccines Now Battling Outbreaks
More than 90 countries are using Covid-19 vaccines from China, but outbreaks in some of those countries after the majority of the population has been vaccinated call into question the effectiveness of the vaccines. Mongolia, Bahrain, Chile, and the island nation of the Seychelles all relied on Chinese-made vaccines, Sinopharm and Sinovac Biotech, that were readily available thanks to China’s aggressive vaccine diplomacy campaign. Now, all four nations are battling outbreaks, in spite of 50-68% of their populations being vaccinated. In fact, “all four ranked among the top 10 countries with the worst Covid outbreaks as recently as last week,” according to data from The New York Times. Health experts say that although the Chinese-made vaccines could protect against severe cases of Covid-19, the recent outbreaks in these countries suggest that they are not effective at preventing transmission of the virus, particularly new variants. “If the vaccines are sufficiently good, we should not see this pattern,” said Jin Dongyan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong. “The Chinese have a responsibility to remedy this.” As the New York Times writes, “Disparities such as these could create a world in which three types of countries emerge from the pandemic — the wealthy nations that used their resources to secure Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna shots, the poorer countries that are far away from immunizing a majority of citizens, and then those that are fully inoculated but only partly protected.”
AstraZeneca Says Vaccine Effective Against Variants, Cites Study
AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine is effective against the Delta and Kappa variants, both of which were first identified in India, the company said on Tuesday (Reuters). The announcement is based on evidence from a study by the Oxford University that investigates the ability of monoclonal antibodies in blood from recovered people and those vaccinated to neutralize the Delta and Kappa variants, the statement said. This latest study builds on results of recent analysis by the Public Health England released last week that showed vaccines made by Pfizer and AstraZeneca offer high protection of more than 90% against hospitalization from the Delta variant.
Around the World
Cases Climb Across Africa
Health experts fear that a wave of coronavirus infections like the one experienced in India is gaining momentum across Africa and that could easily overwhelm the continent. In many countries, medical supplies have already been depleted, hospitals are out of beds and oxygen supplies, and doctors and nurses are suffering from physical and mental fatigue. Fewer than 1% of Africa’s residents have been even partly vaccinated, the lowest rate for any continent (NYT). “I think the greatest risk in Africa is to look at what happened in Italy earlier on and what happened in India and start thinking we are safe — to say it’s very far away from us and that we may not go the same way,” said Dr. Mark Nanyingi, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Liverpool in Britain. He called a surge now gripping western Kenya a “storm on the horizon.” Testing and tracing remains a challenge for many countries in Africa and many do not collect mortality data, meaning that the true scale of the pandemic most likely far exceeds any official estimates. Still, covid-related deaths increased by nearly 15% last week compared to the previous one, based on available data from almost 40 nations, the World Health Organization said.
European Nations Race Against Delta Variant
European nations are pushing to vaccinate the majority of their populations before the Delta variant can spread even more in hopes of warding off a rebound of infections and delaying economic recovery. The bloc is already dealing with the variant to varying degrees: Portugal has sealed off Lisbon on the weekends in hopes of preventing its spread; in Germany, the variant is still rare but scientists expect it to become the leading strain of infections soon; in France and Italy the number of infections of the variant has doubled in recent weeks, though it's still below 5% of all infections. As we covered in yesterday’s brief, the U.K. has been dealing with an increase in infections in recent weeks thanks to the Delta variant, prompting the British government to push back a deadline for eliminating social restrictions put in place to curb the spread of the virus. However, one complication is the fact that genetic sequencing of the virus is limited across much of Europe, making it difficult for public health officials to get an accurate estimate of how fast the Delta variant is spreading. According to the Wall Street Journal, In the past month, the U.K. has sequenced over 27% of its recent positive Covid-19 tests, but in Italy, that figure is less than 1%, according to Gisaid, which collects data from various countries. France, Spain and many other EU countries are sequencing only a tiny fraction of test samples.” Politicians and public health officials worry that if the Delta variant becomes dominant before enough people are vaccinated, it could bring massive waves of infection.
U.S. Government & Politics
House Democrats Push Eviction Ban Extension
On Tuesday, 44 House Democrats urged President Biden to extend the federal ban on evictions during the pandemic (Politico). The letter addressed to Biden and his CDC Director Rochelle Walensky was led by Massachusetts Representative Ayanna Pressley, California Representative Jimmy Gomez, and Missouri Representative Cori Bush and warns that millions could be evicted in the absence of the ban. The letter states, “Evictions take lives and push households deeper into poverty, impacting everything from health outcomes to educational attainment.” The ban has been extended three times but has also drawn opposition from landlords, including a Supreme Court challenge.
Some States Move to Make Pandemic Voting Changes Permanent
As a result of the pandemic, many states changed their voting laws to enable people to vote more easily. Now some states are seeking to make those changes permanent (Politico). Nevada and Vermont have both made universal voting by mail permanent, and Politico writes, “Several other states are moving to allow no-excuse mail voting permanently, after allowing it temporarily while Covid-19 raged in.” Politico notes that it is not just Democratic states making such adjustments, writing, “Kentucky, where Republicans have legislative supermajorities and former President Donald Trump won the presidential contest by 25 points in 2020, codified in-person early voting for the first time this year.”
U.S. Economy
Bonus Read: “Rising Inflation Looks Less Severe Using Pre-Pandemic Comparisons,” (WSJ).
Frontloaded Nature of Stimulus Raises Concern About Economy
While the economy is showing signs of recovery after the pandemic, the frontloaded character of the stimulus package that passed is raising concern that such projections may not be borne out over time (NYT). The New York Times writes, “The $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan enacted in March, as well as a $900 billion pandemic aid package passed in December, is heavily front-loaded. They were set up to get money out the door fast. But one consequence of that strategy is that fiscal policy in the quarters ahead will subtract from economic growth.” According to the Times, the mainstream view remains that the economy will do well, but the Times adds, “there is a risk — recently acknowledged by a top Federal Reserve official — that if pandemic-era savings are disproportionately held by the affluent, they will sit on that cash rather than spend it.” In addition, expanded unemployment payouts are beginning to taper off. The Times writes, “Overall, government spending added 8.5 percentage points to the economic growth rate in the first quarter, according to calculations by the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution. But that so-called fiscal impact is forecast to turn slightly negative in the second and third quarters — and then act as a meaningful drag on growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 and in 2022.”
Home Prices Hit Record High in May
U.S. home prices hit a record high in May with the median price reaching $350,000 for the first time ever according to data released by the National Association of Realtors on Tuesday (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “The figure was nearly 24% higher than a year ago, the biggest year-over-year price increase NAR has recorded in data going back to 1999.” Home prices have increased rapidly over the pandemic. High prices have led to a fall in sales. The Journal reports, “Existing-home sales fell 0.9% in May from April, marking the fourth straight month of declining sales, NAR said.”
Bonus Read: “Warehouse Rents Surge on Bidding Wars for Scarce Space,” (WSJ).
U.S. Society
Report: Traffic Deaths Increased During Pandemic; Show a Racial Disparity
A report released on Tuesday by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration found that even as people drove less due to the pandemic, traffic deaths rose 7 percent (WaPo). The report also found a substantial racial disparity in the toll with the number of Black people killed surging 23%, growing at a rate 25% higher than the rate of growth among white people. The report does not say why the disparity exists, but the Washington Post notes, “Researchers have previously concluded that Black communities tend to be crisscrossed by more dangerous roads. During the pandemic, people of color were more likely to be employed in “essential” jobs without the option to stay home. And people driving faster amid lower traffic levels meant crashes were more likely to be deadly.”
First New Mega Casino on the Vegas Strip in Over a Decade - Resort Worlds - To Open
In a sign that Las Vegas may be recovering from the impact of the pandemic, Resort Worlds, the first new mega casino to open on the Las Vegas strip in over a decade, will open this week (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “Malaysia’s Genting Group developed the 3,500-room hotel with 117,000 square feet of gambling space, 250,000 square feet of meeting space, a 5,000-seat theater where Celine Dion and Katy Perry begin residencies later this year and seven swimming pools overlooking the north end of the Strip. It is one of the biggest resort projects ever on the famed boulevard, similar in scope to the Bellagio or the Venetian.” Las Vegas casinos began to reopen in June 2020, but as they reopened they relied heavily upon masks, plexiglass, and reduced offerings to control the spread of Covid. Las Vegas has seen its tourism industry recover somewhat but still lags behind the pre-pandemic situation. The Journal writes, “For April, using the most recent figures available, about 2.6 million people visited Las Vegas, about 73% of pre-pandemic visitation compared with April 2019 when the city welcomed 3.5 million visitors.”
Bonus Read: “As Homicides Soar Nationwide, Mayors See Few Options for Regaining Control,” (WaPo).
Analysis & Arguments
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