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June 12, 2020 - Brief Issue 59

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

U.S. Coronavirus Cases Pass 2 Million; Coronavirus Deaths Will Spike in September After a Decline Over the Summer (Health & Science)

New Study Finds Most Coronavirus “Introductions” in U.K. Came From Spain, France and Italy, Almost None From China (Health & Science)

U.S. FDA Issues Emergency Use Authorization for First Next-Generation Gene Sequencing Test for Coronavirus with Potential to Provide Widespread Screening (Health & Science)

Existing Vaccines for Polio and Tuberculosis May Help Protect Against Coronavirus; Clinical Trial Underway for Tuberculosis Vaccine; Researchers Call for Clinical Trial of Polio Vaccine (Health & Science)

Coronavirus Continues Spread Across U.S. Agricultural Sector (Health & Science)

Coronavirus Cases at Facilities for U.S. Disabled May Mirror Coronavirus Rates in Nursing Homes (Health & Science)

Researchers Explore Why Children Less Likely to Suffer Severe COVID-19 Symptoms Than Adults (Health & Science)

Scientists Still Unsure How Coronavirus Immunity Will Work Long-term (Health & Science)

EU Firms Up Plans to Reopen Borders Between its 27 Member States on June 15 (Around the World)

EU Wants to Buy COVID-19 Vaccines Up Front, Unless They’re Solely Made in U.S. (Around the World)

Russia Joins Race for Vaccine (Around the World)

Italians Embrace Tracking App (Around the World)

Reverend Sharpton Plans Massive D.C. Protest in August Amid Continuing Pandemic Fears and Broader Calls for Reopening and Major Events; Uncertain if Permit Will be Granted (U.S. Government & Politics)

President Trump Resumes Pre-Pandemic Routine; Other U.S. Government Officials Move on to Other Matters (U.S. Government & Politics)

U.S. Stocks Drop Sharply as Investors Grow Anxious About Second Wave of Infections (U.S. Economy)

Weekly Unemployment Claims Fall Again; Total Number Claiming Benefits Stays High at Almost 30 Million (U.S. Economy)

WSJ Survey: U.S. Economic Recovery to Begin by Third Quarter (U.S. Economy)

Some NYPD Officers Refuse to Wear Masks at Protests (U.S. Society)

U.S. Foundations to Give More Money to Nonprofits Amid Pandemic (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 2,023,347 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 113,820 people have died (Johns Hopkins). Around 540,292 people have recovered, and the United States has conducted 21,933,301 tests. Worldwide, there have been 7,534,325 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 421,856 deaths. At least 3,552,550 people have recovered from the virus.

U.S. Coronavirus Cases Pass 2 Million; Coronavirus Deaths Will Spike in September After a Decline Over the Summer

The U.S. officially passed 2 million infections by the novel coronavirus on Thursday, and over 113,000 Americans have died, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. As we noted in an earlier brief from this week, several U.S. states have seen increases in their number of coronavirus cases, even as states are reopening their economies after weeks of stay-at-home orders. According to the Washington Post, cases in Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, and Utah have increased since Memorial Day weekend, and at least 12 states have had increases in hospitalizations over the same period of time. North Carolina surpassed its earlier record of hospitalizations across the state, increasing to 780 on Thursday, and 79 percent of Arizona’s intensive care unit beds are full. However, at least 22 states have seen their new coronavirus daily case rates decline by over 10 percent in the last week, reports CNN. As the Atlantic noted, just one week ago, 22 states had 400 or more new coronavirus cases. Further, the Atlantic reported, “The public-health system is discovering and diagnosing a much greater percentage of cases than it did in the early days of the outbreak. Morgan Stanley estimated that the transmission rate in the U.S. was just above 1; this suggests that there has not been explosive growth in the number of active cases in recent weeks…Instead, the United States has moved from attempting to beat the virus to managing the harm of losing.” This patchwork approach across the U.S. underlines that there has not been a coronavirus task force briefing in over one month (WaPo).

U.S. mortalities from COVID-19 could reach 169,890 by October 1, but could be as low as 133,000 and as high as 290,000, reports CNN. Deaths will likely decrease in the hot, summer months of June and July, stay constant in August, and then rise “sharply” in September. According to University of Washington School of Medicine’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation director Dr. Christopher Murray, “If the US is unable to check the growth in September, we could be facing worsening trends in October, November and the following months if the pandemic, as we expect, follows pneumonia seasonality.” 

New Study Finds Most Coronavirus “Introductions” in U.K. Came From Spain, France and Italy, Almost None from China

On Wednesday, Nature reported that the coronavirus came into the United Kingdom more than 1,300 times from, primarily, France and Spain. Earlier in the pandemic, most claims were that travelers from China and wider Asia brought the virus in, but new data shows that most cases came from Europe. Researchers at the University of Oxford and University of Edinburgh reviewed almost 30,000 coronavirus genomes to track the virus entry into the U.K. since the start of the pandemic and how it spread. The findings were published on Virological, which describes itself as a discussion forum for analysis and interpretation of virus molecular evolution and epidemiology, and has not yet been peer reviewed. The researchers found 1,356 individual “introductions” of the virus into the U.K., and about 34 percent of those were from travelers from Spain, followed by France at about 29 percent, about 14 percent from Italy, and about 23 percent from other countries. Travelers from China accounted for less than 0.1 percent. Further, most introductions peaked in mid-March, and are likely an underestimate, report the researchers, highlighting, “The estimated global prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 rose rapidly in March. Notably there was a period in mid-March when inbound travel to the UK was still substantial and coincided with high numbers of active cases elsewhere.”

U.S. FDA Issues Emergency Use Authorization for First Next-Generation Gene Sequencing Test for Coronavirus with Potential to Provide Widespread Screening

The U.S Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued its first emergency use authorization to a next-generation gene sequencing test for coronavirus, called CovidSeq Test, developed by San Diego-based Illumina. The test uses next-generation gene sequencing to quickly and relatively cheaply sequence the virus’ entire genome from samples on nasal or throat swabs. The diagnostic test “could strike the right balance of volume, sensitivity, and speed needed for routine screening to help reopen society,” writes BioCentury. It can simultaneously deliver high volume results with about a 24-hour turnaround, and also help scientists track genetic sequences and mutations. The test runs on a system which can process over 3,000 samples in 12 hours and is already placed in about 920 laboratories and hospitals (San Diego Union Tribune, Illumina). The “genetic sequencing information will help us monitor if and how the virus mutates, which will be crucial to our efforts to continue to learn and fight this virus,” said FDA Commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn (FDA). Former FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb, who is also an Illumina board member, said that next-generation sequencing could “enable widespread screening by filling the gap between rapid point-of-care tests that are relatively inexpensive but have lower sensitivity, and PCR-based tests that are more sensitive but have slower turnaround times and are costlier to run for large populations,” writes BioCentury.

Existing Vaccines for Polio and Tuberculosis May Help Protect Against Coronavirus; Clinical Trials Underway for Tuberculosis Vaccine; Researchers Call for Clinical Trial of Polio Vaccine

Existing live vaccines for polio and tuberculosis – which contain weakened versions of the viruses – have been shown to also help protect against a wide range of other viruses and may help protect against the coronavirus, a group of distinguished scientists argued in Science on Thursday. Although the mechanism is not fully known, it is thought that the vaccines activate the immune system in a way that enhances its response to later triggers, something called “trained innate immunity.” Inactivated vaccines, which do not contain a live virus, do not seem to provide the same protection. Some scientists have proposed that broad use of the BCG vaccine, which protects against tuberculosis, may help explain lower rates of coronavirus infection in countries like Pakistan, but other countries with widespread BCG use like Brazil have high rates, and a recent study in Israel, which administered BCG widely from 1955 to 1982, concluded that there was no significant difference between people who were vaccinated and those who weren’t (WaPo). A clinical trial of BCG against COVID-19 is underway at Texas A&M, with others underway in the Netherlands, Australia, Denmark, France, and Germany (The Scientist). The authors of the Science article recommend the oral polio vaccine (OPV) over the BCG vaccine because of its higher safety record, its ease of use as an oral vaccine, and the possibility of scaling up production quickly: one billion doses are already produced and used each year (CNN). “We propose the use of OPV to ameliorate or prevent COVID-19. Both poliovirus and coronavirus are positive-strand RNA viruses; therefore it is likely that they may induce and be affected by common innate immunity mechanisms,” they write. Other experts are skeptical: “I do believe the oral polio vaccine would provide some protection against new viruses, but so would catching cold,” an associate professor of microbiology and immunology told NBC. The lead author, Konstantin Chumakov, who is associate director at the FDA’s Office of Vaccines Research and Review, is calling for clinical trials of OPV and is working with co-author Robert Gallo, the noted HIV researcher and director of the Institute of Human Virology at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, to raise money to test the polio vaccine against COVID-19. Bonus Read: “Five Coronavirus Treatments In Development” (NPR).

Coronavirus Continues Spread Across U.S. Agricultural Sector

As we’ve noted in previous briefs, farms are the new possible tinderboxes for the coronavirus. Outbreaks are happening across the country from Florida to “the world’s salad bowl” in Monterey County, California (Reuters). Unlike grain crops, fruits and vegetables are not usually picked by machines. Three-fourths of U.S. farm workers are immigrants, who usually travel to the U.S. for seasonal work depending on the crop season, and “are some of the most vulnerable populations in the U.S., subjected to tough working conditions for little pay and meager benefits. Most don’t have access to adequate health care” (Bloomberg). The produce industry could face a similar fate that the meat industry has seen – very high infection rates of workers who fear getting fired if they do not clock in, in addition to price increases and limits on consumers’ purchases. Social distancing is also a problem for those packaging fruits and vegetables at facilities that mirror the conditions of meatpacking plants, notes Reuters. Yakima County in Washington state – which exports fruits and hops across the U.S. – “has the highest per capita infection rate of any county on the West Coast” (Bloomberg). Yakima had more than 600 COVID-19 cases at the end of May, and 62 percent of those were “in the apple industry and other packing operations or warehouses” (Reuters). The county has over 4,800 cases as of June 10. As of June 5, Monterey County reported 247 agricultural worker coronavirus cases, which accounts for 39 percent of the entire county’s cases. Reuters also highlighted that Monterey County is one of a few counties that actually tracks its virus cases of agricultural workers. As we noted in a previous brief, there is no national count of how many of these workers have become infected with SARS-CoV-2. United Farm Workers national vice president Erik Nicholson says of this lack of awareness, “There is woefully inadequate surveillance of what’s happening with Covid-19 and farm workers” adding, “There is no central reporting, which is crazy because these are essential businesses” (Bloomberg).

Coronavirus Cases at Facilities for U.S. Disabled May Mirror Coronavirus Rates in Nursing Homes

In the United States, long-term care facilities for the disabled house more than 275,000 Americans, many of which have preexisting conditions making them susceptible for the coronavirus, reports the Associated Press. By the AP’s count, at least 5,800 of those 275,000 have already contracted the coronavirus, leading to the death of 680 individuals from COVID-19. Over 2,100 facilities for the disabled have either residents or staff who have tested positive for the coronavirus. Further, as the AP notes, “The virus poses an especially big risk for the disabled. Some are bedridden or prone to seizures. Others have visual or hearing impairments and are non-verbal, so they can’t articulate when they don’t feel well. And social distancing — one of the key preventive measures for COVID-19 — is nearly impossible because many residents have roommates, share common living areas and need full-time assistance for basic tasks like brushing their teeth.”

At least 12 U.S. states have not released full data on their coronavirus counts from facilities for the disabled, so the rate of infection and death is likely higher. What’s more, 40 percent of one of the U.S.’s largest government-funded facilities for the disabled, Intermediate Care Facilities, “failed to meet safety standards for preventing and controlling the spread of infections and communicable diseases” from 2013-2019, notes the AP. The standards not met included “taking precautionary steps to limit the spread of infections to unsanitary conditions and missed signs that illnesses were passing between residents and employees.” Data is not comprehensive because these types of facilities are not highly regulated in the United States. As we noted in a previous brief, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) asked U.S. states to provide information about coronavirus cases and deaths for nursing homes. However, CMS did not ask the same of facilities for the disabled. On May 5, the Consortium for Citizens with Disabilities wrote a letter to U.S. Department of Health and Human Services secretary Alex Azar, stating, “The lives of people with disabilities in these settings are equally as at risk — and equally as worth protecting — as people in nursing homes.” Requirements for reporting coronavirus cases from facilities for the disabled are still separate from nursing home requirements. 

Professionals who care for those with special needs are facing a recruitment crisis. Despite high U.S. unemployment, there are short-staffing signals in the industry due to low pay and a lack of professional recognition. Further, these care workers have occupational hazards such as a lack of social distancing, while those with special needs are more likely to die of the coronavirus, which creates stress and trauma for those working in care facilities (WSJ).

Researchers Explore Why Children Less Likely to Suffer Severe COVID-19 Symptoms Than Adults

In previous briefs, we noted that children have largely been protected from severe coronavirus infections, and very few progress to COVID-19. A study from China published in Lancet Infectious Diseases (which was issued as a preprint article in March) found that children under 10-years-old were “just as likely as adults to get infected, but less likely to have severe symptoms.” Different studies in different contexts have shown a wide spectrum of children’s rate of infection and symptoms. According to paediatric respiratory medicine researcher at the Chinese University of Hong Kong Gary Wong, “children’s lungs might contain fewer or less-mature ACE2 receptors, proteins that the SARS-CoV-2 virus uses to enter cells.” Another theory is that the immune response produced by children is the ideal and appropriate amount, meaning it’s “strong enough to fight the virus, but not so strong that it causes major damage to their organs.” Wong studied the cases of 300 COVID-19-infected individuals and found that “children produce much lower levels of cytokines, proteins released by the immune system” compared to adult patients (Nature). Cytokine storms, where the body starts to turn on itself and fight not just the virus but also its own cells, have been seen in COVID-19 patients. Other theories have circulated about endothelial cells in adults and children because they “harbour the same ACE2 receptor that the virus uses to enter lung cells,” causing the cells to likely become infected. Research on endothelial cells was conducted by the University Hospital Zurich in Switzerland and Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Massachusetts, and found coronavirus-infected cells in kidney tissue (The Lancet). Endothelium is “in much better condition in children than adults,” notes Nature. Some researchers and doctors believe that when the virus enters endothelial cells, it “disrupts communication between the cells, the platelets and plasma components involved in clotting, and that this communication breakdown leads to excess clots forming,” but the breakdown is less exaggerated in children. Melbourne Children’s Campus paediatric haematologist Paul Monagle is conducting two experiments to prove this theory. The first experiment will “try to recreate conditions inside the blood vessels of children and adults in the lab” by taking “cultured endothelial cells infected with SARS-CoV-2 and bathe them in plasma from three sources — children, healthy adults, and adults with vascular disease.” Monagle and his team hope to see what causes the communication breakdown. The second experiment will review children and adult plasma infected with COVID-19 in hopes of identifying differences between the two.

Scientists Still Unsure How Coronavirus Immunity Will Work Long-term

As we’re noted in previous briefs, infectious disease experts have theorized what immunity from the novel coronavirus might look like, and how long it will last. However, experts “still don’t know what potpourri of antibodies, cells, and other markers in a person’s blood will signify that protection,” writes STAT. The level of protection can be seen by the presence of antibodies, immune cells, or proteins. Scientists hope that other human coronaviruses can help vaccine creators to best hypothesize what “kind of immune response vaccines should aim to introduce.” Luckily, vaccine creators can make and adjust vaccines as they gain information from other trials, as White House coronavirus task force member Dr. Anthony Fauci explains. “If one vaccine proves efficacy in a clinical trial and another vaccine is behind it but it’s getting the same correlate of immunity, you could bridge data and facilitate the approval of the second and the third one based on the efficacy of the first one.”

Scientists are looking at the blood of individuals who recovered from COVID-19 to check for the types of antibodies produced by the body. Recently, scientists found that nearly all individuals infected by the coronavirus have antibodies to it. According to the New York Times, a preprint study based on an antibody test developed at Mount Sinai’s Icahn School of Medicine shows that almost every person exposed to COVID-19 will develop antibodies, regardless of how ill they were. The study is the largest by far of its kind, involving 1,343 people from New York City and the surrounding region, and showed that “the level of antibodies did not differ by age or sex… and even people who had only mild symptoms produced a healthy amount.” STAT reported that another study found that immune cells rallied to identify the virus, especially through its distinctive spike protein, and help the body defend against it.

As we’ve noted in earlier briefs, researchers have also studied re-exposing animals, such as rhesus macaques, to the coronavirus to test their immune system’s ability to protect against a second dose of virus and have found that they “generated neutralizing antibodies after they first contracted the virus or when they were given experimental vaccines, and that the higher the level of the antibodies the monkeys had (the higher the “titer,” in scientific parlance), the more protected they were against the pathogen when scientists sprayed a second dose into their noses” (STAT). Scientists hope that this immune response could be mirrored in humans. However, Johns Hopkins University vaccine researcher Anna Durbin notes that “what’s happening with immune cells and antibodies in someone’s blood may not mean the cells in the upper airway — which the coronavirus targets — are similarly defended,” reports STAT. Therefore, people may have a reduced risk of contracting the virus and not getting severely ill, but that doesn’t mean they’re absolutely immune to SARS-CoV-2. Scientists are hoping to find the most effective vaccine that provides the most protection over a long period of time.

Bonus Read: “These people have been sick with coronavirus for more than 60 days” (WaPo).

Around the World

Europe

EU Firms Up Plans to Reopen Borders Between its 27 Member States on June 15

On Thursday, the European Commission recommended that the 27 member states fully reopen their borders with each other on June 15 and with the western Balkans from July 1 (AFP). The Commission recommended extending the ban on non-essential travel for people outside of the EU for another two weeks (Bloomberg). It is expected that EU governments will create a common list of countries outside the bloc from which visitors will be allowed in starting in July. That list should be based on “objective criteria” and “restrictions should be lifted first with countries whose epidemiological situation is similar to the EU average and where sufficient capabilities to deal with the virus are in place,” according to the Commission. The external border closure was introduced in mid-March and extended twice already.  Bonus Read: “‘Corona Cycleways’ Become the New Post-Confinement Commute” (NYT). 

EU Wants to Buy COVID-19 Vaccines Up Front, Unless They’re Solely Made in U.S.

The European Commission is seeking a mandate from the bloc to buy promising COVID-19 vaccine candidates from pharmaceutical companies  in advance—but not ones that are produced solely in the United States (Reuters). The Commission will ask EU health ministers at a video conference on Friday to back the plan to pay for up to six potential vaccines where the makers would commit to providing doses when and if they become available. EU officials told reporters at a news conference that the United States has signaled that it will not allow sales of vaccines produced exclusively in the U.S. to other countries until its needs are met. But U.S. companies with production facilities in Europe could be eligible for the EU deal, which would offer financial guarantees for pharmaceutical companies.

Russia Joins Race for Vaccine

Russian President Vladimir Putin has employed the armed forces, enacted shortened trial approval times, and sped up clinical evaluations in order to try to win the race to develop a vaccine against the novel coronavirus (WSJ). Russia has 10 vaccine candidates, according to the World Health Organization, and Putin has made it clear that he wants the first one to be registered by September, a very short timeline that is worrying public health experts since it could mean the potential side effects of a vaccine wouldn’t be studied enough. Russia has reported more than 6,000 deaths and around half a million infections, according to official data, and is the third-worst affected country in the world. The country’s economy has also taken hit after hit due to the pandemic, with low oil prices being followed by coronavirus lockdowns. For Putin, the stakes in developing a vaccine are especially high, as he is facing a popular referendum on July 1 on constitutional changes that would allow him to stay in power until 2036. Research around the vaccines is moving fast; last week 45 servicemen and five servicewomen were isolated so that they can be given a vaccine developed by the ministries of defense and health. Clinical research on the vaccine is expected to conclude by the end of July. The United States, China, and Europe are also chasing a vaccine. 

Italians Embrace Tracking App

Italy is the first major European country to roll out a smartphone app to trace COVID-19 infections that does not rely on a centralized database and has already seen 2.2 million downloads in just 10 days (Reuters). “We want a summer in which tourism is as safe as possible. This app can help us resume activities after the lockdown,” Technological Innovation and Digitalization Minister Paola Pisano told Reuters. Originally, the government’s calls for a tracking app faced resistance from privacy advocates and opposition politicians, but many Italians have seemed to set their privacy worries aside to embrace the technology. The app, called Immuni (immune), has been turned on for just four regions, accounting for 8 million of Italy’s 60 million total residents. But authorities hope to roll it out for the rest of the country later this month. If someone tests positive for coronavirus, doctors upload the results anonymously onto a server, and a notification is then sent to people who encountered that person and advises them to call a doctor, self-isolate, and get a test. 

France’s ‘Generation COVID’ Entering Rough Job Market

Young people in France are facing challenges in the job market due to the coronavirus pandemic, with some 80,000 young job-seekers entering the labor market this summer just as the euro zone’s second-largest economy is forecast to shrink by 11 percent (Reuters). France has struggled to provide long-term jobs for its youngest members of the workforce, with youth unemployment at above 20 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019—the fourth highest in Europe, although that number was falling before the crisis. French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to hold talks with trade unions and employer groups to discuss the best way to create jobs for this demographic during the recession, as the labor ministry expects that as many as 320,000 young people will seek help from employment aid centers and youth unemployment might hit 30 percent. 

Queen Joins First Public Video Conference Call as Cases in U.K. Continue to Fall

Queen Elizabeth took part in her first public video conference call to mark Carers Week, speaking to four carers who look after family members and hearing about their experiences during the coronavirus outbreak (Reuters). Carers Week highlights the sacrifices made by approximately 7 million unpaid carers in the United Kingdom, many of whom have taken on extra roles during lockdown. Meanwhile, the number of people testing positive for the coronavirus in the U.K. is continuing on a downward trend, according to estimates by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) (BBC). Around one in 1,700 people were infected between May 25 and June 7, compared to one in 1,000 before then. The estimates are based on 20,000 tests on people in private households and are thought to be a good picture of the proportion of people infected across the community, but they don’t include infections in care homes or hospitals. 

Americas

Graves Dug in Rio Beach to Protest Government Response to Coronavirus

Brazilians critical of their government’s response to the coronavirus dug 100 graves with black crosses in the sand at Rio’s Copacabana beach on Thursday in tribute to the nearly 40,000 people who have died so far (Reuters, BBC). The graves were dug opposite the Copacabana Hotel. Brazil has had over 770,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus and has the second-worst outbreak in the world after the United States. 

Pandemic Prevents Colombia From Aerial Spraying of Coca Fields

The coronavirus pandemic has temporarily suspended a controversial plan by Colombia’s government to resume aerial spraying of a potent chemical to kill coca crops that feed the global cocaine trade (Science). Last month, a Colombian court said that the spraying of the herbicide, called glyphosate, could not resume until the government informs and consults with communities that would be affected by the spraying. But the coronavirus pandemic has hindered that outreach and environmental and human rights groups fought a plan by the government to hold virtual meetings since many of Colombia’s rural communities don’t have reliable access to the internet. Some studies have linked the use of glyphosate to human health and environmental problems, with the World Health Organization’s cancer research agency concluding that glyphosate “probably” caused cancer in humans. 

U.S. Government & Politics

Reverend Sharpton Plans Massive D.C. Protest in August Amid Continuing Pandemic Fears and Broader Calls for Reopening and Major Events; Uncertain if Permit Will be Granted

As the coronavirus pandemic continues to rage, the Reverend Al Sharpton is proceeding with plans to hold a massive protest march in D.C. in August that will be led by the family of George Floyd, who was killed in the custody of Minneapolis police (WaPo). Sharpton announced the plans for the protest last week during the memorial service for George Floyd (CNN). A plan for the protest march, timed to align with the 57th anniversary of the March on Washington, was submitted to the National Park Service last Friday and describes a need for 1,000 buses and a mass procession. Sharpton commented, “This is the era to deal with policing and criminal justice. We need to go back to Washington and stand up — black, white, Latino, Arab — in the shadows of Lincoln and tell them this is the time to stop this.” It is not clear if a permit will be granted, as the National Park Service suspended the issuance of protest permits as a result of the pandemic, and has currently cancelled all permits through June 22. There are also reports of a separate possible planned protest in late August though details on it are far from clear (DCist). Bonus Read: “Protest Leaders Plan a Summer of Rallies, Aimed at Police Overhauls,” (WSJ).

The pandemic is not expected to have ended by August, and evidence is growing about increasing numbers of cases from reopenings during Memorial Day and fears of a further potential spike as a result of the current protests over the killing of George Floyd. As of the morning of June 12, D.C. had reported 9,589 confirmed coronavirus cases and 502 deaths. Maryland had reported more than 60,000 cases and 2,750 deaths, and Virginia had reported more than 52,000 cases and 1,520 deaths. At the same time, the protest plan comes as the country is wrestling with Floyd’s death, the deaths of many other Black men and women at the hands of police, and issues of police brutality and systemic racism more broadly. 

Though the issues motivating the protest march are particularly salient, Sharpton and the Floyd family are far from the only people to be looking at holding major events in the coming months. Other major events planned for August and earlier, including the party political conventions,  have been wrestling with the questions surrounding physical events as the broader debates about reopening continue. Trump and the GOP are planning to move their convention to Jacksonville, Florida to allow it to proceed without risk of disruption from the original North Carolina site’s virus-related restrictions (WaPo, WSJ). President Trump has also pushed for a July 4 event at the Lincoln Memorial, where the protest march would also occur if allowed to proceed (Washington Business Journal). In May, Trump had restrictions on activity at the Memorial relaxed so he could hold a Fox News interview there (NYT).

President Trump Resumes Pre-Pandemic Routine; Other U.S. Government Officials Move onto Other Matters

President Donald Trump is attempting to resume his pre-pandemic routine with the hope that it will be a positive message to the American people that the country's problems are under control. For the first time in months, he is organizing campaign rallies, fundraisers, and trips to his resorts. This weekend, Trump is scheduled to travel to New Jersey, one of his first trips to one of his namesake resorts since before the pandemic started. In the coming weeks, He also plans to attend events in Oklahoma, South Dakota, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina. President Trump is signaling he is returning to pre-pandemic normalcy, hoping to get millions of Americans to do the same, and by doing so, helping to restart the economy that is grappling with a massive downturn. The Trump Victory Washington State finance co-chair discussed the return to 'normalcy,' stating, "I think we need to get going. I think this whole thing is overdone. It's time to resume life. It's past due. It's about time" (Politico, NYT).

Other government officials are also moving onto other matters. U.S Congressional lawmakers have shifted focus to police brutality, the Senate Health Committee has moved onto school openings, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was seen at a café in Georgetown. Washington officials are sending a clear message that they are embracing a 'new normal' and seem to be eager to leave the coronavirus in the rearview. Howard Markel, a professor at the University of Michigan, discussed the move to normalcy, stating, "They have made a conscious decision that we are moving on" (NYT).

Trump Rally Attendees Told to Sign Coronavirus Waiver

On Thursday, the Trump campaign sent out registration information for its first rally since the pandemic to be held in Tulsa, Oklahoma on June 19th, and the information asked rally goers to waive their ability to sue over any coronavirus transmission at the event (Politico). The registration page includes a disclaimer that “by clicking register below, you are acknowledging that an inherent risk of exposure to COVID-19 exists in any public place where people are present” adding that attendees “voluntarily assume all risks related to exposure to COVID-19.” Bonus Read: “Trump’s planned rally in Tulsa, site of a race massacre, on Juneteenth is ‘almost blasphemous,’ historian says,” (WaPo).

Bonus Read: “Borrow crisis tactics to get COVID-19 supplies to where they are needed” (Nature).

U.S. Economy

U.S. Stocks Drop Sharply as Investors Grow Anxious About Second Wave of Infections 

On Thursday, U.S. stocks decreased by the most in 12 weeks as investors grew anxious about a potential second wave of the virus. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 7 percent, with all of its 30 companies dropping in value. The S&P 500 fell by almost 6 percent, and the Nasdaq composite dropped by 5 percent. Companies that dropped the most included travel companies, airlines, and cruise operators. Dan Deming, director at KKM Financial, discussed the drop in the markets, stating, "You're seeing the psychology in the market get retested today… The sense is maybe the market got ahead of itself, which makes sense given the fact that we've come so far so fast" (WSJ, CNBC, Bloomberg). However, on Friday, futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered some of the losses (WSJ).

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the U.S. should not shut down the economy during a resurgence of coronavirus infections. Mnuchin said shutting down the economy will not be necessary due to improved testing and contact tracing, and could cause more harm than good. Mnuchin talked about a second lockdown on CNBC, stating, "We've learned that if you shut down the economy, you're gonna create more damage—medical problems that get put on hold. We can't shut down the economy again" (Bloomberg).

Weekly Unemployment Claims Fall Again; Total Number Claiming Benefits Stays High at Almost 30 Million

According to the U.S. Department of Labor, in the week ending June 6, 1.54 million made unemployment claims, a decline of 355,000 from the previous week. Further, the total number of Americans drawing unemployment benefits declined slightly in the week ending May 30 to 20.9 million. The decline in those applying for unemployment and those receiving benefits is a sign that the economy is beginning to recover from some of the effects of the pandemic that devastated the labor market. Still, there are concerns about a second-wave infection that could trouble the job market in the near future. Daniel Zhao, a senior economist at the jobs database Glassdoor, stated, "It's fair to say that the recovery has started, but that's not a guarantee that the recovery will continue uninterrupted" (WSJ).

WSJ Survey: U.S. Economic Recovery to Begin by Third Quarter

According to a Wall Street Journal survey, nearly two-thirds of economists expect an economic recovery to start in the third quarter of 2020. Further, economists expect the gross domestic product (GDP) to shrink by 5.9 percent this year, which is an improvement over what was previously predicted. Economists also expect the unemployment rate by the end of the year to be 9.6 percent, which is also an improvement from what was previously forecast. Lynn Reaser of Point Loma Nazarene University, a former chief economist at Bank of America Corp, discussed the recovery: "The upswing has already begun, although full recovery will take time" (WSJ).

U.S. Society

Some NYPD Officers Refuse to Wear Masks at Protests

Some New York City Police Department (NYPD) officers are refusing to wear masks at protests at a time when New York City is recording hundreds of new coronavirus cases each week. Officers are reporting numerous reasons to support their choice forgoing masks from peer pressure to communication challenges. Still, critics are challenging the decision arguing officers are arrogant and dismissive of protesters' health. Mayor Bill de Blasio commented on the lack of masks in the city's police force, stating, "I'm frustrated by it, too. The policy is police officers are supposed to wear face coverings in public, period...I have had this conversation with Commissioner Shea multiple times. It has to be fixed, and that bothers me" (NYT).

Foundations to Give More Money to Nonprofits Amid the Pandemic

Several major foundations, including the Ford Foundation, plan to substantially increase their philanthropic spending by issuing debt amid the pandemic. On Thursday, the Ford Foundation announced it would borrow $1 billion so that it can continue to give money to nonprofits when the economy has been facing an unprecedented downturn. The foundation plans to borrow the money by issuing 30 and 50-year bonds. Private companies and governments commonly issue bonds, but it is an unusual move for nonprofits. Nonprofits have been hard-hit by the pandemic. Research by the Center for Effective Philanthropy reported that 90 percent of nonprofit groups surveyed had to cancel or postpone fundraising events, and 81 percent had to reduce programs. Darren Walker, President of the Ford Foundation said, "For most foundations, the idea of taking on debt is outside of normative thinking. Covid-19 has created unprecedented challenges that require foundations to consider ideas — even radical ones that would have never been considered in the past" (NYT).

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The Brief is edited by Peter Bergen and co-edited by Melissa Salyk-Virk, Emily Schneider, David Sterman, and Narisara Murray, with Brenden McMullen.

Read previous briefs here: https://www.newamerica.org/international-security/blog/new-america-coronavirus-daily-brief/

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